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SEPTEMBER 2019

Developing the case for the West London Orbital (WLO)

Presentation to the Transport Economists Group

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Outline of presentation

• Background/context
• What is the West London Orbital?
• Challenges/opportunities along the route
• How we have developed the business case
Background &
Context
London is growing

• The Mayor’s Transport Strategy sets out a target

for 80% of trips to be made by walking, cycling or
public transport by 2041, whilst the draft new
London Plan identifies a need for 66,000
additional homes per year
• To achieve these targets there is a need for an
85% increase in public transport capacity to
support a city of over 10.6 million residents by
2041
• Some of this public transport capacity needs to be
delivered through major schemes – incremental
upgrades to existing services are not sufficient
• In addition to funded and committed schemes, a
package of major transport interventions is
required to support growth in the capital
– Currently, these proposals are not fully funded

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TfL is investigating the feasibility of a number of major schemes

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What is the
West London
Orbital?
 The WLO proposal
• ~11miles of route with services
between Hendon/West Hampstead
& Hounslow/Kew Bridge
• Service is proposed to open in 2
phases
• Phase 1 (4 tph: West
Hampstead ->Hounslow) in
2026
• Phase 2 (4 tph: Hendon – Kew
Bridge) in 2029
• 15 stations including 4 new stations
• Harlesden
• Neasden
• OOC Victoria Road station
• Lionel Road

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 The scheme
• Existing infrastructure owned by
Network Rail.
• West London Boroughs are
collectively promoting the scheme
• Current services include:
• Current freight only line
(Dudding hill line)
• Busy passenger/ Freight
corridor (NLL)
• Busy passenger corridor
(Hounslow loop)
• Scheme is estimated to cost £273m
(2017 prices)

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The WLO scheme is included in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy
(MTS)
• Initial scheme development work was borough-led

• After strong stakeholder support, the MTS was amended to reflect WLO

Proposal 88:
‘The Mayor, through TfL, the West London Alliance boroughs and Network
Rail, will work towards the delivery of a new London Overground ‘West
London Orbital’ line connecting Hounslow with Cricklewood and Hendon
via Old Oak, Neasden and Brent Cross’

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Project Delivery Overview – Indicative timescales

Stage 1 - (FY 2018/19) Completed

Review and Update existing work, confirm desired outcomes.
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/west-london-orbital

Stage 2A and Stage 2B - Stage 2A currently underway (18-24

months)
Further Design work (GRIP 2), Business Case development and public
consultation

Stage 3 - Future Phase (18-24 months)

Scheme development to single preferred option (GRIP 3 & 4) and
more public consultation

Stage 4 - Future Phase (12-18 months)

Transport & Works Act Order (or similar) preparation and submission

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Transport
Challenges &
opportunities
along the route
LB Brent, LB Ealing, LB Hammersmith &
Fulham, LB Harrow, LB Hillingdon, LB
Hounslow and LB Barnet
West & north west London is the most significant economic
region outside the Central Activities Zone
• The region contributing 20% to London’s GDP and having the highest
productivity per worker out of any London sub-region.

• Its employment clusters are home to agglomerations of major industries,

including transport, logistics, pharmaceutical and media.
• The region acts as the UK’s global gateway through Heathrow and will become
London’s gateway to the north via HS2 at Old Oak Common
• The Park Royal/A40/Heathrow corridor has high demand for industrial land
use, driven by warehousing and logistics, and airport related activities.

• LB Brent and LB Ealing have some of the highest levels of net demand for
industrial land in London
• These boroughs have a high concentration of Strategic Industrial Locations (SIL)
critical for effective functioning to London’s economy as it can accommodate
by virtue of their scale, noise, odours, dust, emissions, hours of operation, etc.

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 West and north west London is also a region with significant
growth potential
• Some of London’s most significant
Opportunity Areas (OAs) which would
experience transformational change
over the next decade are located in the
region.
• In total, 8 of London’s opportunity
areas are located in the region
– Total of over 80,000 homes and
100,000 jobs

• These characteristics mean the area

will play a critical role in delivering new
homes and jobs London needs over the
next 25years.

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The opening of the Elizabeth line will bring a step change
between west London and the CAZ
• The new Elizabeth line will improve
radial connectivity between west
London and the CAZ & Isle of Dogs
• Associated changes to the bus
network would provide some
improvement in radial connectivity
to stations
• However, north-south connectivity
between town centres in the north
of the region e.g. Wembley and
Brent Cross; and those south e.g.
Hounslow, would not benefit in a
significant way. Change in PT journey time at Harlesden (2016 – 2031).
Source: WebCAT
• Comparing current & forecast
journey times with committed
improvements show that the north-
south corridor sees little
improvement at either end.

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Poor orbital connectivity is a constraint on mode shift in west
London

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These challenges informed our scheme objectives
Objective A
Enable the delivery of new
homes and jobs in west London
in line with the principles of Good
Growth (MTS Policy 21)
Objective C
Enhance public transport
capacity in west London to
relieve pressure on existing
corridors and ensure resilience of
the public transport network as
population grows
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Objective B
Enhance orbital public
transport connectivity to and
between major trip attractors (e.g.
town centres and Opportunity Areas
at Old Oak, Brent Cross and the
Great West Corridor) in west
London to support mode shift
towards active, efficient and
sustainable modes, and west
London’s continued economic
growth
How we
developed the
business case
Business Case Development

• The Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) is the first of a 3 stage decision
making process (DfT approach)

• SOBC developed using the five case model approach

– Strategic case: supported by a robust case for change
– Economic case: demonstrates value for money
– Commercial case: commercially viable
– Financial case: affordable
– Management case: scheme is manageable

• This presentation focuses on the strategic & economic cases

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A number of work streams informed the development of the
business case

Strategic
modelling
What is the overall Technical
Development impact of the scheme
Capacity Study on the PT network? operations
How many homes & assessment
jobs can the scheme Are there any technical
unlock? show-stoppers at a high
level?

Funding study Consents

WLO
What are the funding strategy
opportunities? Business case
Transport & Works
Can we operate development Act Order
without subsidies?

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Development
Capacity study
 Methodology & assumptions

Stage 1: Understanding the Stage 2: Identify sites & define the potential
context

Identify existing development sites in

Identification of catchment – SHLAA data Scenario 1:
station catchment – without
Impact areas Confirm current status – to identify scheme
which will come forward development

Identify sites that could be unlocked by

Constraints Understand Scenario 2:
WLO
assessment on context for WLO
development development dependent
potential potential Apply assumptions regarding level of scenario
growth

Identify sites that could be unlocked by

Area
WLO with a more flexible planning Scenario 3:
characterisation
approach Max
development
Apply assumptions regarding level of scenario
growth
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The Development capacity study considered 3 scenarios
• Acts as a baseline to measure development potential
Scenario 1 • Considers sites with a high degree of certainty –
‘Approval’, ‘Allocated’ and ‘Potential Development’
“without scheme” • Sites sifted out include ‘Excluded’, ‘to be deleted’,
‘Unsuitable’ and ‘Low Probability’

• Development that could potentially be unlocked as a result of

the WLO
• Approved sites – no uplift as a result of WLO
Scenario 2 • Allocated and Potential Development sites
• Phase 3 – scope for uplift as a result of the WLO. Density
“WLO dependent” applied assumes a PTAL uplift of 1 resulting in increased
density
• No change to housing levels for SHLAA Phase 1 & 2

• More flexible approach to planning. Still London Plan

Scenario 3 compliant
Maximum • Sites identified in scenario 2 are taken forward
development • Sites identified as ‘Unsuitable’ in the SHLAA e.g. SIL, LSIS
• Assumes there is no net loss of employment space
potential
• Assumes medium level of intensification

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 Development Capacity study - Key findings (residential)
• Under the WLO-dependent
WLO dependent Max
scenario, the study development
identified an additional
Station Additional units Additional units
8,800 residential units
to baseline to baseline
unlocked by the WLO
scheme in the area Acton Central 500 3,200
Brent Cross West 0 2,900
• The max-development Brentford 300 1,200
Cricklewood 1,600 2,000
scenario identified up to an Harlesden 100 100
additional 29,300 units. Hendon 550 1,500
Hounslow 350 300
• Significant development Isleworth 200 1,400
Kew Bridge 0 1,700
(up to 6,000 units
Lionel Road 0 700
combined) identified Neasden 2,100 5,900
around: OOC Victoria Road 0 -
• Cricklewood South Acton 2,400 4,000
• Neasden Syon Lane 100 2,500
West Hampstead 600 1,900
• South Acton
Total 8,800 29,300
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Strategic
modelling
We modelled 2 service patterns for the economic appraisal
• 8tph option

• 4tph option

• 4- car diesel units. Class 172s. and requirement for a fleet of 15 or 8 units (for
the 8tph and 4tph options respectively)
• The WLO could address orbital connectivity barriers in west London and
improve journey times
OD Pair Journey time without Journey time with Journey time saving
WLO WLO
Hounslow – Tottenham Court Road 62 mins 50 mins 12 mins

Hounslow – Wembley Central 67 mins 47 mins 20 mins

Brent Cross West – Ealing Broadway 55 mins 31 mins 24 mins

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Funding study
We investigated several funding approaches to covering Capital
Costs
• Capital cost is assumed to be approx. £273m
• Due to early nature of this estimate figure is inclusive of 80% risk adjustment
• Includes cost for potential changes required to stations, level crossings, track
junctions doubling, depot and re-signalling
• This does not account for the possible need of electrification that would
further increase the cost
• Rolling stock is assumed to be covered under operational cost
• Assessments to be carried out at the next stage of this project will
contribute towards a more refined Capital cost estimate based on a
confirmed scope of works.

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We investigated several funding approaches to covering Capital
Costs
• Funding from Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) and public-sector development
are within the powers of the boroughs affected by the scheme
• However, retention of income from business rates growth by each borough would
require the 1km zones of influence around of each station to be designated as an
Enterprise Zone by the UK Government for up to 25 years
• The majority of scheme costs would be incurred pre-2029, but most of the revenue
identified will be available post 2029
• Work on a funding strategy commences shortly to consider additional funding &
financing options
Funding source WLO – dependent (£m Max development
2017/18) (£m 2017/18)

CIL 45 128

Direct Development 29 35

Business Rates (new & 299 550

incremental)

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Operating cost and revenue

• The following matters have been considered for the operating costs of the
scheme:

• Revenue forecasting: Additional analysis to the revenue forecasts, including

different factors, to assess the true impact of fares in the affordability of the
operating side of the scheme

• Different levels of services: Analysis of various ways to run the services in

order to attempt to keep operating costs affordable

• Other options: Alternative rolling stock options, potential for non-fare box
income

• Total operating cost calculated as £26m and 14m (2018/19 prices) respectively for
the 8tph and 4tph scenario

• Net revenue was calculated as <£5m

• We are currently considering options and opportunities to close this gap

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Economic Case
The scheme has medium to high value for money

Draft Economic
appraisal output

Discounted £m, 2010

values)

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Next steps
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Project Delivery Overview – Indicative timescales

Stage 1 - (FY 2018/19) Completed

Review and Update existing work, confirm desired outcomes.
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/west-london-orbital

Stage 2A and Stage 2B - Stage 2A currently underway (18-24

months)
Further Design work (GRIP 2), Business Case development and public
consultation

Stage 3 - Future Phase (18-24 months)

Scheme development to single preferred option (GRIP 3 & 4) and
more public consultation

Stage 4 - Future Phase (12-18 months)

Transport & Works Act Order (or similar) preparation and submission

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We are now working on progressing the scheme towards GRIP 2
level design
• Work split into Phases 2A and 2B, with Phase 2A focusing on potential
‘showstopper’ issues.

WLA Led TfL Led

• Funding & Financing study
• Economic Development study
Network Rail Led
• Timetable Assessment
• Level Crossing Assessment
• Power assessment
• Rolling Stock Strategy
• Development of operational
concept
• Development of maintenance
concept
• Review of existing station
capacity
• Signalling feasibility assessment
• Acton Wells Junction
Remodelling Feasibility
Assessment

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Contact Seyram Kumapley

seyramkumapley@tfl.gov.uk