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Article history: This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of coalbed methane resources estimation for a coal seam gas
Received 25 January 2016 field containing multiple coal seams. Firstly, logs from nine wells and laboratory data from nine coal
Received in revised form seams were used to predict the coal thickness, ash content and gas content at nine boreholes. Secondly,
31 March 2016
the structural models were determined using the well correlation, structural contour and coal seam
Accepted 4 April 2016
Available online 19 April 2016
thicknesses maps from coal mine data by the convergent gridder and sequential Gaussian simulation
methods. Then, distributions of coal density and ash content were generated in 3D by using sequential
Gaussian simulation based on the well log interpretations. Then, the distributions of gas content for each
Keywords:
Coalbed methane resources
cell were built by two methods; one is multivariable regression analysis in 3D and the other is sequential
Geological modelling Gaussian simulation based on the log interpreted gas content. Finally, coalbed methane resources were
Uncertainty analysis estimated based on the cell volume, coal density, net to gross ratio and gas content. In coalbed methane
resources estimation, four different density cutoffs were used to define the net to gross ratio of coal in 3D.
Results show that the gas contents decreases with increase in depth though with increases of vitrinite
reflectance ratio, fixed carbon content and pressure. Calculated gas content from linear multivariate
regression by using parameters of ash content, volatile matter content and fixed carbon content and
sample's burial depth matches well with laboratory measured values. The total coalbed methane re-
sources estimated are similar by the two geological modelling processes, the multivariable regression
analysis in 3D and the sequential Gaussian simulation. It has been found that the effects of coal density
cutoffs on coalbed methane resources for different coal seams are different.
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.04.017
1875-5100/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 989
measured for each sample. Coal maceral compositions, e.g. vitrinite Age Coal Seams Lithology
Formation/Stages
reflectance ratio (VRO, %), vitrinite, liptinite and inertinite, are
measured in separate experiment. Coal ash and sodium content Early Cretaceous Dolerite dykes Mica
lamprophyre dykes and
(Heriawan and Koike, 2008a), volatile matter content (Hagelskamp Lohpiti sills
et al., 1988), sulfur content (Bancroft and Hobbs, 1986; Beretta et al.,
Upper
2010) need to be studied as part of the assessment of coal quality. Telmuchia Fine grained
Late Permian
The coal quality parameters were used to predict gas content (Zhou feldspathic
Raniganj
et al., 2012). Nolde and Spears (1998) calculated the gas content Jamdih sandstones, shales
using a linear regression equation in which the depth is the only with coal seams,
independent variable. According to Nolde and Spears, the gas maximum
thickness=725m
Lower
content increases with increase in depth. The authors presented a
Murlidih
model equation based on the desorption values for the 61 low
volatile bituminous coal samples. Fu et al. (2009) estimated the gas
content using multivariable regression analysis by relating data,
Middle Permian
Massive buff coloured
Baren Measure
Mahuda
Upper
such as burial depth, resistivity, sonic slowness and density log sandstones, grey shale,
(RHOB) with measured gas contents from 64 samples. Only one of Hariharpur carbonaceous shale
the five reported equations by Fu et al. (2009) shows that the gas with/without very thin
Petia lenses of coal, maximum
Lower
content decreases with increase in burial depth but the reason was
thickness=625m
not represented. Gas content was also estimated by relating with Shibabudih
the pressure, temperate, and the ratio of fixed carbon over volatile
matter content in wt% (Kim, 1977). XVIII
The log derived data is geostatistical analyzed to estimate dis-
Upper
tributions of coal thickness (Jakeman, 1980; Mastalerz and Phularitand XVII Buff coloured
Kenneth, 1994), coal quality (Cairncross and Cadle, 1988; medium and coarse
XVI grained sandstone,
Hagelskamp et al., 1988; Liu et al., 2005; Heriawan and Koike, grits, shale,
2008b; Beretta et al., 2010; Hindistan et al., 2010) and coal Early Permian
Brari XV carbonaceous shale,
Barakar
tonnage (Heriawan and Koike, 2008a). Sequential Gaussian simu- XIV siltstone and thick
XIII workable coal
lation (SGS) and ordinary Kriging methods are used to predict the Middle
XII
XI seams, maximum
distribution of coal thickness and coal quality (Beretta et al., 2010). X thickness=1250m
Zhou et al. (2012) presented an uncertainty analysis of CBM re- Nardkarki IX
sources using the stochastic reservoir modelling for a CBM field in VIII
southeast Qinshui Basin from China. They reported that the het- V/VI/VII
erogeneities in coal seam thickness and coal quality lead to IV Greenish shale, very
Lower
increasing uncertainty in estimating CBM resources. The authors Goladadih III fine grained sandstone,
II
I sandy shale,
also reported that the density variogram and coal seam roof surface
conglomerate and basal
contribute less to the uncertainty estimation of CBM resources. But Talchir tillite
sufficient data, sound log interpretation models and appropriate Archaean Metamorphics
geological methods can improve the reliability of resource
estimation. Fig. 1. A schematic of the stratigraphic succession showing coal seams. Coal seams
In this paper, the uncertainty in CBM resources estimation is numbers in rectangles are objectives of this study (After Saikia and Sarkar, 2013).
Fig. 2. Two well correlation sections, (a) Section #S1 and (b) Section #S2. MD in the first track is measured depth in m, RHOB in the second track is coal bulk density in g/cm3, and GR
in the third track is gamma ray in API. Distances between wells are not to scale.
2.2. Laboratory data Table 1. Fig. 4 shows the variation of raw gas content, moisture
content, ash content, volatile matter content, and fixed carbon with
A summary of desorption and coal quality data obtained from 68 depth. Results show that the raw gas content (Q) and volatile
coal samples from five wells (wells No. A, B, C, D and E in Fig. 3) is matter content (VM) have negative relationships with depth; ash
presented in Table 1. The desorption data include the total gas content (ASHR) shows a negative proportionality with fixed carbon
content, natural desorption gas content, losing gas content, residual (FC).
gas content and desorption time. Coal quality tests include the
moisture content, ash content, fixed carbon content, volatile matter
content and coal density. Table 2 lists the correlation coefficient
matrix for the nine properties of the 68 samples which are listed in
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 991
Fig. 3. Elevation on the roof of coal seam No. IIIeIV (a), and thickness contour map of coal seam No. IIIeIV (b).
Table 1
Coal samples adsorption and coal quality industrial tests.
Sample number Mid-point depth, m Q1 (%) Q2 (%) Q3 (%) Moist (wt%) ASHR (wt%) rc (g/cc) VM (wt%) FC (wt%) VMdaf (wt%) FCdaf (wt%) Q (m3/t) Qdaf (m3/t) t (d)
A-1 495.86 // // // 2.0 23.5 // 27.95 46.58 37.5 62.5 10.71 14.37 //
A-2 497.525 // // // 2.0 26.9 // 24.18 46.95 34.0 66.0 11.27 15.84 //
A-3 498.475 // // // 1.3 17.3 // 16.68 64.69 20.5 79.5 10.71 13.16 //
A-4 503.25 // // // 1.9 26.0 // 24.51 47.59 34.0 66.0 11.33 15.71 //
B-1 548.055 30 64 6 0.2 8.1 1.28 23.28 68.39 25.4 74.6 15.08 16.45 5.75
B-2 551.625 26 69 5 0.2 10.2 1.27 24.28 65.30 27.1 72.9 14.29 15.95 2.08
B-3 553.455 27 66 7 0.3 20.5 1.31 23.37 55.84 29.5 70.5 10.50 13.25 2.79
B-4 554.38 22 74 4 0.4 14.8 1.34 23.59 61.26 27.8 72.2 13.62 16.05 1.83
B-5 556.185 29 68 4 0.0 21.4 1.46 26.79 51.78 34.1 65.9 10.87 13.83 1.73
B-7 613.25 30 65 4 0.1 9.6 1.34 23.08 67.18 25.6 74.4 14.49 16.05 1.97
B-8 615.845 21 72 6 0.1 7.4 1.32 21.76 70.71 23.5 76.5 13.06 14.12 1.57
B-9 723.795 31 66 2 0.2 12.4 1.42 18.63 68.81 21.3 78.7 14.89 17.03 1.97
B-10 724.6 21 75 5 0.1 20.5 1.23 17.75 61.72 22.3 77.7 11.96 15.05 0.84
B-12 788.31 28 64 8 0.1 16.5 1.39 17.90 65.52 21.5 78.5 14.54 17.43 3.40
B-14 812.875 28 65 7 0.1 19.0 1.34 24.53 56.40 30.3 69.7 13.23 16.35 2.50
B-15 814.505 24 67 9 0.2 16.5 1.34 19.33 64.03 23.2 76.8 14.26 17.11 1.83
B-17 1001.805 24 64 11 0.4 24.3 1.39 17.38 57.93 23.1 76.9 12.68 16.95 3.08
B-18 1002.51 18 65 17 0.3 24.6 1.36 19.05 56.04 25.4 74.6 11.27 15.01 3.26
B-19 1013.59 21 72 7 0.2 12.8 1.40 16.27 70.78 18.7 81.3 12.10 13.90 1.64
B-22 1063.07 22 52 26 0.0 35.6 1.50 13.68 50.66 21.3 78.7 10.14 15.76 //
B-23 1066.845 9 83 8 0.3 48.1 1.64 11.05 40.53 21.4 78.6 8.79 17.04 2.62
B-24 1068.58 26 55 19 0.0 45.4 1.63 12.04 42.54 22.1 77.9 13.40 20.71
B-25 1072.215 13 79 8 0.0 45.2 1.58 17.94 36.80 32.8 67.2 10.66 19.47 2.71
B-26 1073.68 16 74 9 0.0 32.7 1.47 15.23 52.03 22.6 77.4 13.20 19.63 2.67
B-27 1120.125 28 66 6 0.1 35.9 1.46 22.46 41.56 35.1 64.9 11.78 18.40 6.83
B-28 1121.45 33 63 5 0.2 30.9 1.44 12.60 56.34 18.3 81.7 10.79 15.66 9.75
B-29 1124.685 3 54 42 0.0 45.2 1.58 17.94 36.80 32.8 67.2 8.52 15.56 //
B-30 1137.665 20 68 11 0.0 23.1 1.50 13.96 62.91 18.2 81.8 11.06 14.39 7.29
C-1 755.42 19 71 9 0.5 23.0 // 22.59 53.96 29.5 70.5 10.33 18.41 2.45
C-2 756.305 22 68 7 0.4 44.7 // 17.26 37.66 31.4 68.6 9.20 16.62 3.50
C-3 896.26 19 78 4 0.5 22.4 // 18.53 58.64 24.0 76.0 9.07 11.67 1.67
C-4 897.93 21 75 4 0.3 12.1 // 20.57 67.01 23.5 76.5 12.07 13.74 1.75
C-5 958.96 26 67 8 0.2 30.1 // 18.06 51.62 25.9 74.1 9.90 14.16 3.42
C-6 961.64 24 67 9 0.4 12.3 // 24.29 63.05 27.8 72.2 10.67 12.16 4.17
C-7 964.22 20 69 11 0.4 15.7 // 17.06 66.89 20.3 79.7 11.13 13.20 3.42
C-8 1019.8 14 76 11 0.7 23.0 // 18.75 57.59 24.6 75.4 9.72 12.62 3.21
C-9 1021.935 18 76 6 0.7 23.8 // 20.00 55.52 26.5 73.5 11.75 15.42 2.79
C-10 1025.225 19 81 0 0.7 10.0 // 19.59 69.72 21.9 78.1 12.27 13.64 2.08
C-11 1028.41 13 77 10 0.5 36.5 // 19.79 43.26 31.4 68.6 10.94 17.23 2.63
C-12 1030.07 14 18 6 0.3 9.9 // 20.67 69.15 23.0 77.0 11.89 13.20 2.29
C-13 1032.67 19 74 7 0.7 16.6 // 16.73 66.03 20.2 79.8 11.08 13.24 3.00
C-14 1089.68 13 63 24 0.4 16.7 // 18.83 64.03 22.7 77.3 9.80 11.77 7.83
C-15 1096.64 15 54 30 0.5 27.0 // 18.65 53.82 25.7 74.3 7.25 9.94 7.17
D-2 318.72 8 72 21 0.7 8.3 // 36.21 54.76 39.8 60.2 6.90 7.90 3.70
D-3 518.08 26 63 11 0.5 7.0 // 32.83 59.65 35.5 64.5 4.60 9.10 4.80
D-5 706.625 27 67 6 0.6 11.9 // 16.98 70.55 19.4 80.6 10.00 13.00 1.00
D-6 769.35 20 76 5 0.3 7.7 // 25.48 66.49 27.7 72.3 12.60 17.70 2.20
D-9 849.135 22 75 3 0.6 35.0 // 11.84 52.52 18.4 81.6 12.70 15.60 1.30
D-13 1057.555 27 62 11 0.5 2.1 // 20.64 76.73 21.2 78.8 11.50 16.60 0.86
D-16 1146.24 33 65 3 0.5 3.3 // 19.91 76.27 20.7 79.3 11.10 13.40 0.82
D-17 1147.46 31 64 5 0.5 13.7 // 17.92 67.84 20.9 79.1 12.90 15.70 0.82
D-18 1149.145 28 69 3 0.2 13.6 // 17.59 68.63 20.4 79.6 10.80 12.60 1.00
D-19 1214.95 30 64 6 0.9 11.1 // 12.50 75.55 14.2 85.8 12.60 16.60 4.94
E-1 1042.78 24 49 27 0.46 72.33 // 25.91 1.30 95.22 4.8 1.20 4.41 //
E-2 1116.97 15 80 4 2.5 22.75 // 3.59 71.16 4.80 95.2 5.06 6.77 //
E-3 1118.13 6 90 4 0.9 26.76 // 7.59 64.75 10.49 89.5 6.34 8.76 //
E-4 1130.47 11 85 4 0.82 14.75 // 17.69 66.74 20.95 79.0 8.57 10.15 //
E-5 1131.32 15 81 3 0.71 27.60 // 17.93 53.76 25.01 75.0 8.92 12.44 //
E-6 1183.895 7 90 4 0.86 39.13 // 10.53 49.48 17.55 82.5 7.59 12.65 //
E-7 1185.11 13 82 5 0.82 18.53 // 16.05 64.60 19.90 80.1 7.66 9.50 //
E-8 1409.99 9 32 59 0.8 19.28 // 10 69.92 12.51 87.5 3.37 4.22 //
E-9 1412.74 18 70 12 0.6 18.5 // 9.9 71.00 12.24 87.8 5.16 6.38 //
E-10 1417.19 22 34 43 0.90 12.80 // 15.4 70.90 17.84 82.2 4.44 5.14 //
E-11 1418.485 7 79 15 0.7 14 // 9.78 75.52 11.47 88.5 7.45 8.73 //
E-12 1420.835 12 66 21 0.8 18.77 // 9.89 70.54 12.30 87.7 4.68 5.82 //
E-13 1422.91 18 57 25 0.59 57.46 // 14.43 27.52 34.40 65.6 4.15 9.89 //
E-14 1459.31 19 52 29 0.9 9.83 // 8.6 80.67 9.63 90.4 5.06 5.67 //
E-15 1462.175 20 52 28 0.67 19.69 // 10.57 69.07 13.27 86.7 4.53 5.69 //
Note: Q1 ¼ naturally desorption gas content, Q2 ¼ lost gas content, Q3 ¼ residual gas content, Moist ¼ moisture content as received basis, ASHR ¼ ash content as received basis,
VM ¼ volatile matter content as received basis, FCN ¼ fixed carbon content as received basis, rc ¼ measured coal bulk density, daf ¼ dry-ash free basis, Q ¼ gas content as
received basis (Q ¼ Q1 þ Q2 þ Q3), Qdaf ¼ gas content as dry-ash free basis, t ¼ desorption time. wt% ¼ weight percent.
Littke, 2006). Amijaya and Littke (2006) also reported that the volatile matter content decreases by about 20e30 wt% (daf) for
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 993
Table 2
Correlation coefficient matrix for the various properties of 68 samples in study area.
Depth (m) Moist (wt%) ASHR (wt%) VM (wt%) FCN (wt%) VMdaf (wt%) FCdaf (wt%) Q (m3/t) Qdaf (m3/t)
200
400
600
Depth (m)
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Fig. 4. Variation of (a) raw gas content, (b) moisture content, (c) ash content, (d) volatile matter content, and (e) fixed carbon with burial depth.
each 1% VRO increase in the range between 0.5 and 2.0% VRO. Hence Fig. 4a shows the gas content with depth. It can be seen from the
we first interpreted the moisture content and then calculated the figure that the gas content decreases with increase in depth. This is
volatile matter content. Fig. 6 shows the plot of the measured ash due to the fact that the temperature, which has negative effect on
content and moisture content which is quite scatter and therefore gas content, increases with increase in depth. Although VRO in-
the relationship between two parameters is weak. The measured creases with increase in depth and has a positive effect, its overall
average, minimum and maximum moisture contents are 0.51%, effect on gas content is low (see Fig. 8a; Laxminarayana and
0.02% and 2.5% respectively for the 68 samples presented in Table 1. Crosdale, 1999). Faiz et al. (2007) reported that for a depth up to
The equation of moisture content is: about 600 m the average in-situ gas content increases. With further
increase in depth (up to 900 m) the gas content tends to plateau or
MOIN ¼ 0:0043 ASHR þ 0:5967 (3) even decreases which is consistent with the combined effects of
Then we have calculated the volatile matter content based on temperature and pressure on the gas sorption capacity during the
material balance using the equation: geological history. Fig. 8 also shows the changing of vitrinite and
liptinite with depth in which data are from wells #A, B, C, D and E.
VM ¼ 100 ASHR MOIN FC (4) Results indicate that the coal rank in the study area is medium to
high volatile bituminous coal.
where, VM is the calculated volatile matter content in wt% and In this study, a regression equation is used to calculate gas
MOIN is the moisture content in wt% as received basis. content as a function of ash content, volatile matter content and
fixed carbon content and sample's burial depth. The equation is:
60 100
y = 97.67x - 114.13 (a) 90 (b)
50 80
R² = 0.7418
70
40
FC (wt%)
ASHR (wt%)
60
30 50
40
20 30
20 y = -0.9088x + 79.241
10
10 R² = 0.8188
0 0
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
ρc (m3/t) ASHR (wt%)
40 16
35 (c) (d)
14
30 12
VM (wt%)
Q (wt%)
25 10
20 8
15 6
10 4
y = -0.0892x + 20.184 y = -0.0728x + 11.7
5 2
R² = 0.041 R² = 0.0938
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
ASHR (wt%) ASHR (wt%)
Fig. 5. Relationships between (a) ash content and coal bulk density, (b) ash content and fixed carbon content, (c) ash content and volatile matter content and (d) ash content and
raw gas content. The relationship between ash content and volatile matter content is weak because the volatile matter content is not only related with ash content but depth and
VRO. The gas content is not only related with ash content but depth, reservoir pressure, temperature, etc.
3 16
Histogram of measured gas content min=1.20
14 max=15.08
2.5 Normal distribu on
average=10.21
12
std.devia on=3.10
2
MOIN (wt.%)
10 kurtosis=0.23
Percentage (%)
1.5 8
6
1
4
0.5 2
0 0
3-4
4-5
0-1
1-2
2-3
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
>20
14-15
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
0 20 40 60 80
Ash content (wt%)
Gas content (m3/t)
Fig. 6. Relationship between the measured ash content and moisture content. Samples
Fig. 7. Histogram of the measured gas content on as received basis and the best fitting
were collected from wells #A, B, C, D, and E.
normal distribution.
200
400
600
Depth (m)
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Fig. 8. Variation of (a) vitrinite reflectance (VRO), (b) vitrinite and (c) liptinite with depth.
12 seams VeVII (13 m), XV(11 m), XIVA(7 m), XIV(6 m), XIII(6 m),
XII(5 m), XI(5 m) and IX(3 m) as listed in Table 3.
10 With those digitized coal thickness data, the direction of the
major and minor distance was determined by generating 2D hori-
8
zonal variogram maps (Petrel, 2014). The minor distance direction
6 is perpendicular to the major direction (Petrel, 2014). After known
the major and minor directions, an exponential model is chosen to
4 fit the sample's experimental variogram along major and minor
directions for each coal seam. Fig. 11 shows the analysed variogram
2
range and orientation of coal thickness in the nine seams. The
0 figure shows that for coal seams, IIIeIV, VeVII, IX, XI, XII, XIII, XIV,
XIVA and XV the major directions are
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
15 , 5 , 45 , 65 , 45 , 45 , 5 , 45 and 45 ; the major
Measured GC (m3/t) distances are 10,000 m, 2686 m, 2354 m, 5100 m, 7756 m, 9843 m,
6932 m, 10,000 m and 10,000 m; and the minor distances are
Fig. 9. Relationship between the measured and calculated gas content on as received
basis. Dotted and solid lines present diagonal and fitted lines, respectively.
3408 m, 2357 m, 1888 m, 1643 m, 2140 m, 3358 m, 2928 m, 2953 m
and 2629 m, respectively.
vertically. The reservoir structure model was built (see Fig. 10) using
3.2.3. Distribution of coal quality
the well tops, structural contour maps and coal seam thickness
There are only nine wells with logs hence it is impossible to
maps which were sourced from coal mining data as shown as un-
analysis the semi-variance of the logs and coal properties derived
filled dot points in Fig. 3. In the study area, there are 17 faults which
from logs. However, Saikia and Sarkar (2013) reported that coal ash
were included in reservoir structural modelling. Convergent
content and volatile matter has a fair relationship with coal thick-
gridder method is used to generate the structural model. The well
ness. Hence, we built the distributions of coal quality properties,
data (points of intersection with seam top) is constrained in
e.g. ash content, and coal density, using the variogram of coal
segment with an influence radius of 600 m. Fig. 10a shows the well
thickness. Sills at both major and minor directions are 1.0; nugget is
locations.
0.1 and vertical range is 10 m.
996 F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001
Fig. 10. Structural contour map on the top of coal seam No. XV (a), and a vertical section shows the faults and coal distributions (b). One trust fault is shown in left of the section
map.
Based on the above analysis, the coal density was modelled density and ash content in 3D.
using the SGS method with the simply Kriging (SK) algorithm. The Table 3 lists the statistics for the net coal thickness, coal density
SGS method honors borehole data, input distributions, variograms and ash content. Results show that the average bulk density is
and trends. In this study, we also built the distributions of coal 1.85 g/cm3 for coal seam XII followed by coal seams IIIeIV(1.64 g/
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 997
Table 3
Statistics for variables of the nine coal seams in their models.
cm3), XV(1.63 g/cm3), VeVII(1.63 g/cm3), XIV(1.61 g/cm3), IX(1.57 g/ cm3, 1.75 g/cm3, 1.85 g/cm3 and 2.0 g/cm3, are used to define the
cm3), XI(1.48 g/cm3), XIII(1.48 g/cm3), XIVA(1.44 g/cm3). While the NTG based on the distribution of coal density in 3D. The estimated
maximum average ash content is 53.50 wt% for coal seam XII fol- resources for the nine coal seams with different coal density cutoffs
lowed by coal seams IIIeIV(46 wt%), VeVII(42 wt%), XIV(35 wt%), for the two processes are presented in Table 4, Figs. 13 and 14. As
IX(34 wt%), XI(33 wt%), XIVA(30 wt%), XIII(27 wt%) and XV(27 wt%). can be seen from Table 4 and Figs. 12 and 13 that the estimated total
resources for the four density cutoff for the nine seams based on
Process 1 are 17.4 109 m3, 19.7 109 m3, 21.0 109 m3 and
3.3. Estimation of CBM resources
22.3 109 m3 and based on process 2 are 16.4 109 m3,
18.7 109 m3, 20.1 109 m3, 21.6 109 m3 respectively. It can be
In calculating the CBM resources, we have used two processes
observed that the estimated resources for most coal seams in
which are shown in Fig. 12. In Process 1, we have calculated the gas
Process 2 are lower than those estimated in Process 1. This is
content distribution in 3D based on the distribution of coal density,
because in the study area, the depth has a negative effect on gas
ash content, fixed carbon, burial depth and volatile matter content
content as shown in Fig. 4. The effect of depth is not considered in
using Eq. (5). In Process 2, however, we calculated the gas content at
calculation of resource estimation in Process 1 when generating the
borehole first and then built its distribution in 3D using SGS. In both
distribution of the gas content. In Process 2, however, the gas
processes, the gas amount in each cell is calculated using the
content distribution was generated by using SGS which considered
following equation:
the decreasing trend of gas content with the increase in depth.
CBMR ¼ Vb $RHOB$Q $NTG (6) Note that the structural uncertainties and spatial variations of
depositional environment are also important for CBM resources
where, CBMR is the cells' gas amount in m3, Vb is the cells' bulk calculation. In this study, hand-drawn structure and coal thickness
volume in m3, RHOB is the cells' coal density in g/cm3, and Q is the distribution maps from mining companies are used in geological
cells' gas content in m3/t, NTG is the cells' net-to-gross ratio of coal modelling. Though wells G, J and F are located away from wells A, B,
thickness in fraction. C, D, H and I, the estimated gas data from wells A, B, C, D, H and I will
dominant the resources calculation results because their close
locations.
4. Discussion
4.1. Effect of geological modelling processes on CBM resources 4.2. Effect of coal density cutoffs on CBM resources
As mentioned above, two processes are used to estimate the When estimating the incremental changes of resource estima-
resources. In each process four different density cutoffs of 1.65 g/ tion by using the Process 1 for the nine coal seams, starting from
998 F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001
III-IV V-VII IX
θ=-65° θ=-45° θ=-45°
Lmax=5100m Lmax=7756m Lmax=9843m
Lmin=1643m Lmin=2140m Lmin=3358m
XI XII XIII
XIVA
XV
θ=-5° θ=-45° θ=-45°
Lmax=6932m Lmax=10000m Lmax=10000m
Lmin=2928m XIV Lmin=2953m Lmin=2629m
Fig. 11. Analyzed horizontal variogram of the digitized thickness data from nine thickness maps. q ¼ major showing the direction, Lmax ¼ major distance, and Lmin ¼ minor distance.
Eq. 1
Structural
3D: RHOB 3D: Q
Model
Eq. 1
Density
ASHR Cutoff
Eq. 2 Eq. 3 Step 2:
Reservoir
FC MOIN NTG Vb D
Modelling
Eq. 4
VM
Eq.5
3D: Q
Eq.6 Eq.6
Step 3:
CBMR CBMR Calculation
Process No.1 Process No.2
Fig. 12. Diagram showing the two different processes in calculating CBM resources (BH ¼ borehole, 3D ¼ three dimensions, other abbreviations are described in the text; after Zhou
et al., 2015).
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 999
Table 4
Estimated resources for the nine coal seams with four different density cutoffs and two different processes.
1.65 (g/cm3) 1.75 (g/cm3) 1.85 (g/cm3) 2.00 (g/cm3) 1.65 (g/cm3) 1.75 (g/cm3) 1.85 (g/cm3) 2.00 (g/cm3)
7 nine coal seams, from high to low, can be ordered as XII, IIIeIV, XIV,
≤1.65 (g/cm3) VeVII, XV, IX, XIII, XIVA and XI (Fig. 15).
6 ≤1.75 (g/cm3)
≤1.85 (g/cm3)
5 ≤2.00 (g/cm3)
4.3. Well log derived gas content
CBMR (109m3)
4
In this study, the gas content is calculated based on the esti-
3 mated ash, fixed carbon and volatile matter contents and burial
depth. The theoretical relationships of bulk density with ash, fixed
2
carbon, volatile matter and moisture contents were established by
1 varying individual parameters for 5000 times randomly. This was
achieved by varying individual parameters randomly, such as the
0 ash content from 1 to 40 v.%, moisture content from 0 to 3 v.%, fixed
XV XIVA XIV XIII XII XI IX V-VII III-IV carbon contents from 6 to 98 v.% and volatile matter from 0 to
Coal seam No. 54 v.%.
Measured values of fixed carbon content and ash content for 68
Fig. 13. Calculated CBM resources for different coal seams with different coal density
cutoffs via Process # 1. The effect of variation of density cutoffs on CBM resources of the
samples were plotted in Fig. 16. From this plot, two correlations
coal seams, from high to low, sequenced as No. XII, XIV, IIIeIV, VeVII, IX. XV, XIII, XI, bounding all the data points (upper and lower limit) were estab-
and XIVA. lished. These two limits were used to generate fixed carbon con-
tent. Data points for the volatile matter were generated using the
material balance therefore, subtracting the sum of moisture con-
7 tent, ash content and fixed carbon content from 100 v.%. According
≤1.65 (g/cm3)
to Anderson et al. (2003) the densities for the ash, fixed carbon,
6 ≤1.75 (g/cm3)
volatile matter and moisture are 2.75 g/cm3, 1.35 g/cm3, 0.90 g/cm3
≤1.85 (g/cm3)
5 and 1.00 g/cm3 respectively which were used to calculate bulk
≤2.00 (g/cm3)
density. Following equations are used to convert unit from wt% to
CBMR (10 9 m 3 )
4 v.%:
3
60
2 Increase density cutoff
Incremental percetage in CBM resources, %
from 1.65-1.75g/cm3
1 50 Increase density cutoff
0 from 1.75-1.85g/cm3
XV XIVA XIV XIII XII XI IX V-VII III-IV 40 Increase density cutoff
Coal seam No. from 1.85-2.00g/cm3
Fig. 14. Calculated CBM resources for different coal seams with different coal density 30
cutoffs via Process # 2. The effect of variation of density cutoffs on CBM resources of
the coal seams, from high to low, sequenced as No. XII, XIV, IIIeIV, VeVII, IX, XV, XIII,
XI, and XIVA.
20
the top XV, XIVA, XIV, XIII, XII, XI, IX, VeVII and IIIeIV, it was found 10
that with change of density cutoff from 1.65 g/cm3 to 1.75 g/cm3 are
4.9%, 1.7%, 23.4%, 5.4%, 27.5%, 3.3%, 9.7%, 18.6%, and 30.8%; from
1.75 g/cm3 to 1.85 g/cm3 are 2.2%, 0.8%, 13.4%, 1.0%, 47.7%, 1.9%, 4.9%, 0
9.0% and 5.8%; and from 1.85 g/cm3 to 2.00 g/cm3 are 5.5%, 2.0%, XV XIVA XIV XIII XII XI IX V-VII III-IV
7.9%, 2.6%, 56.3%, 0.6%, 0%, 5.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In general,
the effect of change in density cutoffs on resource estimation of the Fig. 15. Incremental percentage of CBM resource with increasing density cutoff for the
nine coal seams.
1000 F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001
100 50
90 Measured y = 69.206x - 83.165
45
y=50-1.1x R² = 0.8776
80 40
y=100-1.5x Random points
70 35
Well #B
60
FC (v.%)
ASHR (v.%)
50 25 Linear (Well #B)
40
20
30
15
20
10
10 y = 61.339x - 74.033
5 R² = 0.7665
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0
ASHR (v.%) 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
ρc (g/cm3)
Fig. 16. Relationship between ash content and fixed carbon content in volume percent.
The volume percentages are calculated with the densities of ash, fixed carbon, volatile Fig. 17. Comparison of the measured and theoretical relationships between coal bulk
matter and moisture as 2.75 g/cm3, 1.35 g/cm3, 0.90 g/cm3 and 1.00 g/cm3, respectively. density and ash content. The theoretical calculated coal bulk density use the random
v.% ¼ volumetric percent. Hatched lines are boundary lines showing the ranges of generated volume percentage of ash, fixed carbon and moisture content and their
ASHR and FC. density. The used densities of ash, fixed carbon, volatile matter and moisture are
2.75 g/cm3, 1.35 g/cm3, 0.90 g/cm3 and 1.00 g/cm3, respectively.
100
ASHRðwt%Þ
ASHRðv:%Þ ¼ (7) Theori cal
V$rash 90
80 Measured
70
FCðwt%Þ
FCðv:%Þ ¼
FC (v.%)
(8) 60
V$rfc
50
40
VMðwt%Þ 30
VMðv:%Þ ¼ (9)
V$rvm 20
10
ASHRðwt%Þ FCðwt%Þ VMðwt%Þ Moistðwt%Þ 0
V¼ þ þ þ (10) 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
rash rfc rvm rmoist
ρc (g/cm3)
where rash, rash, rash, rash are density of ash, fixed carbon, volatile Fig. 18. Comparison of the measured and theoretical relationships between the coal
matter and moisture, respectively. bulk density and fixed carbon content.
The calculated bulk densities were plotted as a function of ash
content, fixed carbon content and volatile matter content in
Figs. 17e19. From Fig. 17 it can be seen that only one of the 24 100
measured points is outside the calculated values (points). The slope Theori cal
90 (b)
of the best fit of the measured points (well #B) is slightly lower than
that of the best fit of the calculated points. Results show that the 80 Measured
uncertainty of ash content is within ±6 v.%. Figs. 18 and 19 present 70
the bulk density against volatile matter content and fixed carbon
VM (v.%)
60
content. These figures show that all the measured data points are
50
within the area defined by the calculated data points. The re-
lationships of the coal bulk density with fixed carbon and volatile 40
matter content are, however, very weak (data points are scattered). 30
In theory, the volatile matter content increases with increasing coal 20
bulk density and the fixed carbon content decreases with
increasing coal bulk density. Results show that the resource esti- 10
mation based on the relationships of bulk density with the fixed 0
carbon and volatile matter contents can yield high uncertainty. 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Table 3 lists the summary statistics of the thickness, bulk density ρc (g/cm3)
and ash content of the nine coal seams obtained from 3D reservoir
model. The statistics can be improved with more well data. How- Fig. 19. Comparison of the measured and theoretical relationships between the coal
bulk density and volatile matter content.
ever, the effects of density cutoffs and different calculation pro-
cesses on the estimation of CBM resources will be similar as this
study.
F. Zhou, Z. Guan / Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 33 (2016) 988e1001 1001
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rc measured coal bulk density, g/cm3
t desorption time, days