Contents

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2
1. Background on IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................2
1.1 What did IPCC Say in 2018? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
2. Present Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3. Key concepts of climate change ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
3.1 What is meant by Pre-industrial levels and what is Global temperature Anomaly? ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
3.2 What have been Global CO2 levels historically?.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
3.3 Who are Special interest group of Climate change deniers? ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
3.4 Global Average Temperature – Why is 1° C Rise So Important? ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4
4. Reasons for Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5
4.1 Non-Fossil Fuel Drivers of Green-house-gases (GHG) Emissions ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
4.2 The Oceans ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
4.3 The Ice .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
4.4 The Land ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
4.5 Climate change as a Self-fulfilling Prophecy .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
5. Impact on Human due to climate change .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
6. Solutions to fight climate change .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
6.1 Renewable Energy does not solve climate change!................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
6.2 Other Technological climate engineering projects .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
References .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Introduction

To truly understand what Climate Change is, we need to understand its various aspects. Unless we have clear understanding of all aspects, we as humans will never be willing to act in the right direction. So, in this document we look
at scientific proof, magnitude, impacts of climate change on Humans and other species on planet earth due to climate change. We also look at present day status of climate change and finally we look at some of the important
technological solutions to climate change.

1. Background on IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?

It’s an Inter-governmental body of United Nations (UN). It was founded in 1988 to provide the world with scientific and objective view of climate change and its various impacts. It reviews published research conducted by
thousands of scientists across the globe. When IPCC is ready to publish a report, which includes a summary for global policy makers (Governments of countries), document is approved line-by-line by representatives around 120
participating countries. IPCC is considered internationally accepted authority on climate change.

In 2018 report, they presented on impacts of global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways.

1.1 What did IPCC Say in 2018?

• Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it
continues to increase at the current rate.
• Warming of greater than global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons, including two to three times higher in the Arctic. Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean.
• Temperature extremes on land are projected with extreme hot days in mid-latitudes warmer by up to 3°C by global warming of 1.5°C and 4°C by global warming of 2°C, and extreme cold nights. Similarly, In high latitudes
warmer by up to 4.5°C at 1.5°C and 6°C at 2°C. The number of hot days is projected to increase in most land regions, with highest increases in the tropics.
• Warming from man-made emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise, with
associated impacts.
• Climate models project increases in: mean temperature in most land and ocean regions, hot extremes in most human inhabited regions, heavy precipitation and soil erosion in several regions, and probability of droughts in
some regions. Risks from heavy precipitation events are projected in several northern hemisphere high-latitude and high-elevation regions, eastern Asia and eastern North America while Risks from droughts and
precipitation deficits are projected in some areas.
• Increasing warming amplifies the exposure of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas to the risks associated with sea level rise for many human and ecological systems, including increased saltwater intrusion,
flooding and damage to infrastructure and movement of large population of humans to nearby regions and countries which could lead to global conflicts.
• With 1.5°C of global warming, one sea ice-free Arctic summer is projected per century. This likelihood is increased to at least one per decade with 2°C global warming.
• Approximately 4% of the global terrestrial land area is projected to undergo a transformation from one ecosystem to another. For example, Some Land will change from equatorial rainforest to grassland while some other
land will change from land suitable for agriculture to desert.
• High-latitude tundra and boreal forests are particularly at risk of climate change-induced degradation and loss, with woody shrubs already encroaching into the tundra and these transformations of ecosystems will accelerate
with further warming.
• Of 105,000 species studied,9 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range for global warming of 1.5°C, compared with 18% of insects, 16%
of plants and 8% of vertebrates for global warming of 2°C.
• Global warming of 1.5°C is projected to shift the ranges of many marine species to higher latitudes as well as increase the amount of damage to many ecosystems. It is also expected to drive the loss of coastal resources and
reduce the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture (especially at low latitudes)
• There’s risk of irreversible loss of many marine and coastal ecosystems increases with global warming. Ex. Coral reef, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C with losses more than 99% at 2°C.
• The level of ocean acidification due to increasing CO2 Concentrations associated with global warming of 1.5°C is projected to amplify the adverse effects of warming and further impacting the growth, development,
calcification, survival, and thus abundance of a broad range of species, for example, marine life ranging from algae to fish.
• Impacts of climate change in the ocean are increasing risks to fisheries and aquaculture via impacts on the physiology, survivorship, habitat, reproduction, disease incidence, and risk of invasive species.
• Populations at excessively higher risk of adverse consequences with global warming of 1.5°C and beyond include underprivileged populations, some indigenous peoples, and local communities dependent on agricultural or
coastal livelihoods. Regions at excessively higher risk include Arctic ecosystems, dry-land regions, small island developing states, and Lesser Developed Countries. Poverty and disadvantage are expected to increase in some
populations as global warming increases; If we are unable to limit global warming 1.5°C, compared with 2°C the number of people exposed to climate-related risks and poverty increases by several hundred million by 2050.
Some studies claim that 1 out of 9 humans will be a migrant by 2050.
• In order to achieve no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net man-made CO2 emissions, Humans need to decline CO2 emissions by about 45% from 2010 levels till 2030, reaching net zero till 2050. In order to limit global
warming to below 2°C, global emissions of CO2 need to decline by about 25% and reach net zero by 2070.
• If emissions continue to rise at their present rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2040.
2. Present Scenario
• Research published by scientists from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany and University of Colorado in US state that humans have already emitted enough greenhouse gases that 1.5°C warming is unavoidable
even if all global greenhouse gas emissions were to stop immediately and entirely (which is not going to happen).
• More than 30 leading climate science and policy experts, including Nobel Prize winners, say that limiting global temperatures to below 1.5°C will require removing fossil fuels from the global energy system by 2050, reducing
emissions of super greenhouse gas pollutants like HFCs, methane and black carbon rapidly by 2030, and extracting carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere using carbon negative technologies.
• As per studies in 2018, Greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by nearly half from 2010 levels in the next 12 years and reach a net of zero by 2050. But in the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter of
greenhouse gases, President Trump continues to question the science of climate change, and his administration is rolling back emissions limits on power plants and fuel economy standards on cars and light trucks, while
pushing to accelerate the use of fossil fuels, a move that would increase greenhouse gas emissions in the US by an amount greater than many midsize countries put out in a year. Other major nations around the world aren’t
cutting emissions quickly enough, either.
• An international team of scientists find growing likelihood that runaway warming could destabilize the entire global climate system and lead to a “Hothouse Earth” that in the long term will push global average temperatures
to seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit warmer than preindustrial temperatures, with seas 60 to 200 feet higher than today. “Humanity is now facing the need for critical decisions and actions that could influence our future for
centuries, if not millennia.

3. Key concepts of climate change

To fully understand the implications of this report, we first need to understand how climate change happens and some key concepts on Climate change.

3.1 What is meant by Pre-industrial levels and what is Global temperature Anomaly?
In climate studies, CO2 levels and Global average temperature rise is usually compared versus the beginning of industrialization of Earth around 1750-1850. Current CO2 levels are at highest since last 8 million years and humans have
never seen such high levels of CO2. Human as a species have entered unchartered territory few decades back.

Global temperature Anomaly is the difference in temperature of certain year vs long-term average temperature in recent history. Below graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average
temperatures. Eighteen of the 19 warmest years all have occurred since 2001. There is direct correlation between Global temperatures Anomaly versus CO2 levels. Notice that Earth has already warmed about 1° C since from pre-
industrialization period.
3.2 What have been Global CO2 levels historically?
Over the past 800,000 years, CO2 levels on earth have never been as high as current level of above 420 parts per million (ppm). If we keep burning fossil fuels, earth’s fossil fuels will be exhausted over next few centuries, and earth’s
CO2 levels will reach 1500 ppm.

3.3 Who are Special interest group of Climate change deniers?

People, Industry, Multinational Corporations, Political parties which benefit economically, politically and geographically by denying climate change. These groups are widely accused of spreading mis-information about climate change
and risking future of entire human race for short-term profits.

3.4 Global Average Temperature – Why is 1° C Rise So Important?

Adjacent plot shows variation of five-year average

global surface temperatures from beginning of
Industrialization to as recently as 2018.

Dark blue indicates areas cooler than average.

Dark red indicates areas warmer than average.
Most of the land average temperature has risen.
Dark red indicates areas warmer than average.

Notice that colors vary across the globe which

means that when earth’s average temperature
rose by 1° C, some areas saw rise in temperature of
as much a 1+5 °C versus the Five-year Global
Average.

Further, areas witnessing much higher

temperatures from Five-year Global Average have
been on rise in 20th century.
4. Reasons for Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

As per IPCC 2014 Report, sources of GHG can be attributed to below categories of economic activities -

• 25% from burning of Fossil Fuels for electricity and heat production
• 14% from transport
• 24% from agriculture, forestry and other land use activities like cultivation of crops and livestock and deforestation
• 6% from residential and commercial buildings by means of energy generation for hear or cooking
• 21% from industry involves fossil fuels burned on site for energy and other activities of industrial production
• 10% from other energy uses

4.1 Non-Fossil Fuel Drivers of Green-house-gases (GHG) Emissions

4.1.1 World’s Population Growth

IPCC In its 2018 report specifically identified high population growth as a key
impediment to hitting the critical target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Globally, economic and population growth continued to be the most important

drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

As seen below there is close correlation between world population and CO2
emissions.

In poorer countries, including those where population growth is highest,

economic development is increasing individual carbon footprints and rapidly
growing populations push emissions still higher.

• The Cumulative CO2 emissions from 1751 till 2017 show that developed countries are responsible for majority of Historical CO2 emissions that are still in the atmosphere. US has largest population in developed world but it’s
just over 4 percent of the world’s population, is responsible for almost a third of the excess carbon dioxide that is heating the planet, that’s more than any other country. US produces greenhouse gases at a per-capita rate
that is more than double that of Europe, five times the global average, and more than 10 times the average of developing nations. In terms of per capita (per person) CO2 emissions, US and other developed countries lie well
above World average. China’s per capita CO2 emissions lie much below the average of developed countries like OECD while India’s per capital CO2 emissions are less than half of global average.
 • China has surpassed US as World’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases on annual basis a decade ago. It’s emissions today are about double the US. However, Globalization of the world economy can mask the true carbon
footprint of individual nations. A large portion of China’s greenhouse gases are emitted in the production of consumer goods for the United States and Europe, thus large share of China’s greenhouse gas footprint is displaced
footprint of high-consumption western nations.

• If developing countries like China, India and much of rest of the word were to reach per capita CO2 emissions as high as developed nations, CO2 concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere will rise to levels which will lead to
catastrophic consequences throughout the globe. This is the cause of Global political conflict where emerging countries feel that the responsibility to resolve issue of Climate change lies primarily with developed countries
since they are the one responsible for it.

4.1.2 Agriculture
Agriculture activities like cultivation of crops and livestock for ever-growing population has multiple processes which lead to net emissions of GHG.
• Trees and all plants species store CO2 from atmosphere as Plant tissue is made up carbon. As plants grow, they store more and more Carbon from the atmosphere inside them. Large areas required for agriculture is gained
via Deforestation which leads to lesser number of Trees which means lesser Carbon is captured from atmosphere. Even more importantly, Tree that has been cut down, emits all the carbon stored in its tissue back into
atmosphere either via burning or via natural decomposition
• Livestock like cattle maintained purely for global supply of meat lead to deforestation
• Desertification due to mismanaged grazing of livestock. ** Holistic Planned Grazing is an approach that is being widely praised as solution to Overgrazing by livestock **
• Livestock emit Methane which is 20 times more powerful at capturing heat than CO2
• Traditional farming practices involve burning the crop residue which leads to additional CO2 emissions. There are more efficient ways of utilizing crop residue by unconventional farming techniques like Permaculture which
involve using crop residue as Biomass for composting. ** Permaculture is seen by many as solution for multiple problems encountered in traditional farming like Soil degradation, Reduction of yield, over reliance on chemical
fertilizers, degradation of ground water levels **
• Soil degradation leading to desertification which further aggravates climate change
4.2 The Oceans

4.2.1 Ocean as heat sinks and Effects on Marine Life

The oceans absorb 93 percent of the heat that is trapped by the greenhouse gases that humans pump into the atmosphere i.e. top few meters of the ocean stores as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere. So, as the planet warms,
it's the ocean that gets most of the extra energy. But if the ocean gets too warm, then the plants and animals that live in it must adapt or die.
Several previous studies have predicted that climate change would lead to fewer ocean fish in the future, but the new research looked at historical data to determine that the declines had already begun.

Oceans as CO2 sinks, Acidification of Oceans and Effects on Marine Life

Fish and other animals in the ocean breathe oxygen and give off carbon dioxide (CO 2), just like land animals.
Ocean plants take in the carbon dioxide and give off oxygen, just like land plants. The ocean is great at sucking
up CO2 from the air. It absorbs about one-quarter of the CO2 that we humans create when we burn fossil fuels
(oil, coal, and natural gas.) If not for the ocean, we'd be in even worse trouble with too much CO2.
However, the ocean and everything in it are paying a price. The ocean is becoming more acidic. When the
ocean absorbs a lot of CO2, the water becomes more acidic. The alkalinity of the ocean is very important in
maintaining a delicate balance needed for animals.

The Oceanic Conveyor-belt

One way the ocean affects the climate in places like Europe is by carrying heat to the north in the Atlantic
Ocean. Way up north, cold water in the North Atlantic Ocean sinks very deep and spreads out all around the
world. The sinking water is replaced by warm water near the surface that moves to the north. Scientists call
this the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt. The heat carried north helps keep the Atlantic Ocean warmer in the
winter time, which warms the nearby countries as well.

Salt in Oceans
The amount of salt in the ocean water also affects currents. Saltier water is heavier than less salty water.
When salty ocean water freezes, the ice can no longer hold on to the salt. Instead, the salt mixes with the
water below making it saltier and heavier. Glaciers, land ice and icebergs are made of fresh water.

Great ocean conveyor belt

It refers to the major ocean currents that carries warmer, less salty water from the equator to the poles, and
colder, saltier water from the poles back toward the equator. Colder water and very salty water are heavier
than warmer water and less salty water.
4.3 The Ice
Researchers have observed glacier and ice caps all over the globe retreating, melting. This is a clear evidence of global warming.

4.3.1 Disappearing Polar Ice caps

Due to Global rise in temperature, Annual Artic Sea Ice Minimum has been on steady decline at rate of 12.8%
per decade. Humans could witness for the first time, Ice free summer in Artic by 2040.

What happens when this ice melts?

• The water in the North Atlantic sinks because it's cold, but also because it's salty. Being both cold and
salty makes it very heavy, so it can sink very far. But if too much ice melts in the North Atlantic, the
water could become less salty. A shut-down of the Oceanic circulation would bring cooling to Europe,
as the warmth supplied to Europe by the northward branch of the conveyor would stop. Oceanic
conveyor belt is also responsible for weather patterns around the globe hence disruption of Oceanic
conveyor belts would mean massive changes in Global weather including droughts, extreme rain,
storms.
• The Ocean level around the globe will rise submerging many low-lying countries, island nations and
many densely populated cities around the globe including few financial and economic capitals.
4.4 The Land

4.4.1 Exponential rise in Extinction on Earth

• IPBES 2019 report states that due to human actions, around 25% species in assessed animal & plant groups are threatened. Around 1 million species already face extinction, many within decades. Without immediate
remediation action, there will be further acceleration in global rate of species extinction.
• The current target for international climate policy is to limit global temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Even with this level of warming, we can expect to lose around 5% of species. But as seen
in graph, predicted extinction percentage increases as global temperatures rise beyond 2C limit.
• Human beings have just signed death warrant for 5% species on earth and this is just from species that have had studies, experts say actual number is much higher.
• The last time species extinction of this scale happened was during the 5 th Mass extinction on Earth when an Asteroid had collided with Earth wiping out all but tiny fraction of life on earth and even wiped out dinosaurs.

4.4.2 Humanity led 6th Mass Extinction on Earth

• Because of the scale of current man-made mass extinction, it is being called as 6th Mass Extinction on earth.
• It could perhaps be the last extinction on Earth because Humans could be last species to be extinct before earth heals itself.
4.5 Climate change as a Self-fulfilling Prophecy
There are number of known Reinforcement Feedback Loop systems which when triggered will worsen the worst effects of climate change. Each of these systems has trigger point which can be envisaged as points of no return for that
system.

4.5.1 Permafrost:
Beneath ice sheets of Artic, Antarctica, Russian Tundra, boreal forests of northern hemisphere, there are mummified remains of plants and animals from the time before the last ice age before it got covered with ice. The massive ice
sheets acted as natural deep freezer and thus all the biomass has been preserved. Once the ice sheets melt, this biomass will be uncovered and will start decaying naturally and thus emit massive quantities of Methane which is a
powerful GHG.

4.5.2 Deforestation:
When forests are cut down, CO2 Capture from atmosphere goes down, CO2 Captured within the trees is emitted back into atmosphere, Methane is emitted into atmosphere via natural decomposition of biomass in forest, Oxygen
Release into atmosphere goes down, rain precipitation goes down as forests create ecosystem of their own which leads to rain in nearby regions. Loss of root structures of tress and biomass from trees means that surface of land is
bare and uncovered so there is nothing on surface of soil that holds it in place, this fertile soil is lost during frequent flooding which leads to desertification. All of this leads to more aridity in the region which leads to wildfires which
cause even more loss of forest cover.

4.5.3 Methane from oceans

When an organism in the ocean dies, if it’s heavy enough then it sinks to the bottom of the ocean. Once it reaches bottom of the ocean, it remains there without undergoing natural decay due unfavorable conditions for natural
decay. Biomass ever Since life first started in the ocean lies at the bottom of the ocean and if the ocean gets warm enough, this biomass will start to decay and emit massive quantities of Methane into the atmosphere causing further
global warming. Scientists have already discovered hundreds of active plumes of methane in the Atlantic Ocean.

5. Impact on Human due to climate change

Effects of climate change are not equally distributed globally

Climate change hits the poor hardest. Poor people living in tropical countries are more exposed to storms and
extreme weather, their housing and infrastructure is weaker, they have less savings or insurance to fall back on
when disaster strikes.

Food Scarcity:
Effects of climate change like Droughts, Extreme rain, desertification, Loss of fertile soil, degradation of ground
water levels could severely impact Global production of food. Lesser developed nation will face majority of the ill
effects of climate change at first but eventually impact will be global.

Unhospitable Regions
Extreme temperatures and rising sea levels could mean that some of today’s densely populated areas could
become inhospitable for humans

Climate refugees
Large number of climate refugees and global conflicts of socio-political nature are predicted if we don’t curb the
extreme effects of climate change within time
6. Solutions to fight climate change

6.1 Renewable Energy does not solve climate change!

How much land is needed for Wind & Solar Energy vs Nuclear Energy?

Adjacent illustration which a case study for renewables versus Nuclear plant done in UK answers the exact
same question.

It shows Land required to generate equivalent amount of energy by renewables like Solar and Wind versus
Nuclear plant.

The conclusion is that, very large area is required for renewables in comparison with Nuclear to generate
same amount of electricity.

Moreover, renewables like Solar and wind can produce energy only 30% of the times compared to a nuclear
plant which produces energy at 90% of the time.

Hence, Renewables are not a feasible option to meet global energy demands.

6.2 Other Technological climate engineering projects

These projects at looking at possible solutions that could reverse climate change using engineering solutions.
• CO2 Capture plants to capture CO2 out of atmosphere and store underground
• Global Sulfur cloud cover to lower absorption of suns heat
Side effects of Climate engineering solutions are still unknown and even if we decide to opt for combination of such solution, the cost of implementing them remains too high at present.
Conclusion
Clear consensus in global scientific community is that Climate change can’t be averted by actions of single individual. In fact, magnitude of the problem so massive that, in order to avoid catastrophic effects of climate change, there
needs to be action around the globe by every individual, community, corporation, government and country on a scale that was seen during the world war. It means humans need mobilization all the resources on the planet to be
diverted towards achieving single goal: avert catastrophic effects of climate change.

However, presently there is lack of awareness in the general public which means voters around to globe are not asking enough questions to their representatives in local governments, the Politicians. Politicians responsible for
implementing environmentally sustainable policies. Most of the changes required to counter climate change lead to political divide and debate as these solutions need massive amounts of money and asking for that money from
voters is almost certainly a political suicide. Cost of trying to avert worst effects of climate change keep increasing and perhaps they may get out of humanity’s reach if we leave it too late.

So, General public is being told that Global politicians are trying their best to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 but it’s quite clear from continued inaction that, 1.5°C is merely a distraction in the eyes of general public. There is
huge divide in global politics with regards to responsibility and amount of contribution required by each country to flight climate change. All these petty issues do not matter to mother earth, she will act with her full might to heal
herself via climate change. We as Human species need to act and we need to act now, we can’t afford to wait around for politicians to come up with a solution to save the world. Fact of the matter is Climate change is an existential
risk for mankind because we only have Earth, there is no Planet B.

References
https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180806152040.htm
https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf
https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/global-ice-viewer/
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/04/29/the-arctic-as-it-is-known-today-is-almost-certainly-gone
https://www.ocean.washington.edu/story/Bubble_plumes_suggest_release_of_frozen_methane