GEOS103

Oceans and Atmospheres

Geological Records of
Climate Change

IPCC Cover pages!

1
 The Earth Is Warming

Mean Annual Temp - past 150 years

CH2O + O2  Energy + CO2 + H2O + Nutrients

Mauna Loa!

2
Solar Radiation Earth Radiation

CH4
CO2
H2Ovapor

Global Average Temp

w/o Greenhouse Effect: -18°C (-1°F)
w/ Greenhouse Effect: +15°C (59°F)

Atmosphere from space!

Possible Impacts!

3
 Is it our fault?

Or a natural cycle of change?

Natural vs Human?!

What do we know for sure?

TEXT: What we know for sure.!

4
The Earth Is Warming

Mean Annual Temp - past 150 years

Annual Temp Trends!

5
 Annual Precip trends!

CO2 past 150 years merged!

6
 anthropogenic contributions!

Mean Annual Temp - past 1000 yrs!

7
 Climate System!

What do long-term climate

records tell us about this?

TEXT: long term climate records.!

8
 IODP platforms!

oxygen isotopes
Mg/Ca ratios temperature
alkenones

foram temperature records!

9
 climate change, 0 to 65 my!

Antarctic Circumpolar Current

formed about 36 million yrs ago

• responsible for MAJOR

shifts in Earth’s climate

• occur SLOWLY and over

very LONG time periods
(millions to billions of
years)

drake passage!

10
Drake Passage Opens

climate chage, 0 to 65 my!

Last million years have

seen climates warm/cool
considerably.

ICE AGES

glacial cycles!

11
 ice extent during glaciation!

• responsible for ice-ages

during past 2.5 million
years

• occur regularly at
combined cycles of 20,
41, and 100 kyrs

• have also affected CO2

orbital control!

12
 milankovitch time series!

CO2

TEMP

During Ice Ages, temperature changes

CAUSED changes in CO2

CO2 and Temp during ice age!

13
 ?

holocene optimum!

The Earth Is Warming

Mean Annual Temp - past 150 years

14
Just how important is CO2?

Relative Influence of Factors!

Hanson, J., et al., 2005

Global Climate Forcings!

15
 human vs natural!

What about the future?

TEXT: future???!

16
 past and future CO2!

Computer Models to Predict Climate Change

GCM Grid!

17
 Mean Annual Temp - Projected by models!

Annual Mean Temp w/ Double CO2

GCM Temp 2XCO2!

18
Annual Mean Precip w/ Double CO2

GCM Precip 2XCO2!

shrinking polar ice!

19
 NOAA Arctic Ice!

Source: Climate Change In Pennsylvania, by the Union of Concerned Scientists (October 2008)

PA climate projected latitudinal shift!

20
 Source: Climate Change In Pennsylvania, by the Union of Concerned Scientists (October 2008)

Pittsburgh extreme temps projected!

What we need to know

and do better…
•  understanding of climate system
•  communicate our level of certainty
•  work on the economic models
•  begin to make changes

TEXT: What we need to do better…!

21
Weather and Climate Forecasting

weather/climate forecast predictability!

linkages!

22
 Cost of Extreme Weather Events!

trends in extreme events reported (last 100yrs)!

23
2006 CO2 emission by country!

CO2 production by country!

24
 energy use per capita!

Sources of Greenhouse Gases by sector!

25
CO2 generation relative to power produced

CO2 vs KWH Energy!

Carbon Capture Systems!

26
 carbon cycle!

Fe deficient surface waters

Fe hypothesis!

27
 Questions?
Comments?
Points for discussion?

closing questions!

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