GLOBAL WARMING

A. Global Warming
Global warming is the unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of
Earth's climate system. Since 1971, 90% of the warming has occurred in the oceans. Despite
the oceans' dominant role in energy storage, the term "global warming" is also used to refer to
increases in average temperature of the air and sea at Earth's surface. Since the early 20th
century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with
about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Each of the last three decades has been
successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole, and everywhere in between. Globally,
the mercury is already up more than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.8 degree Celsius), and even more
in sensitive polar regions. And the effects of rising temperatures aren’t waiting for some far-
flung future. They’re happening right now. Signs are appearing all over, and some of them are
surprising. The heat is not only melting glaciers and sea ice, it’s also shifting precipitation
patterns and setting animals on the move.

Some impacts from increasing temperatures are already happening.

 Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice
sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice.
 Researcher Bill Fraser has tracked the decline of the Adélie penguins on Antarctica, where
their numbers have fallen from 32,000 breeding pairs to 11,000 in 30 years.
 Sea level rise became faster over the last century.
 Some butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants have moved farther north or to higher, cooler
areas.
 Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has increased across the globe, on average.
 Spruce bark beetles have boomed in Alaska thanks to 20 years of warm summers. The insects
have chewed up 4 million acres of spruce trees.

Other effects could happen later this century, if warming continues.

 Sea levels are expected to rise between 7 and 23 inches (18 and 59 centimeters) by the end
of the century, and continued melting at the poles could add between 4 and 8 inches (10 to
20 centimeters).
 Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger.
 Species that depend on one another may become out of sync. For example, plants could
bloom earlier than their pollinating insects become active.
 Floods and droughts will become more common. Rainfall in Ethiopia, where droughts are
already common, could decline by 10 percent over the next 50 years.
 Less fresh water will be available. If the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru continues to melt at its
current rate, it will be gone by 2100, leaving thousands of people who rely on it for drinking
water and electricity without a source of either.
 Some diseases will spread, such as malaria carried by mosquitoes.
 Ecosystems will change—some species will move farther north or become more successful;
others won’t be able to move and could become extinct. Wildlife research scientist Martyn
Obbard has found that since the mid-1980s, with less ice on which to live and fish for food,
polar bears have gotten considerably skinnier. Polar bear biologist Ian Stirling has found a
similar pattern in Hudson Bay. He fears that if sea ice disappears, the polar bears will as well.
 The climate system includes a range of feedbacks, which alter the response of the
system to changes in external forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the response of the
climate system to an initial forcing, while negative feedbacks reduce the response of the
climate system to an initial forcing.
 There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, including water vapor, changes
in ice-albedo (snow and ice cover affect how much the Earth's surface absorbs or
reflects incoming sunlight), clouds, and changes in the Earth's carbon cycle (e.g., the
release of carbon from soil). The main negative feedback is the energy which the Earth's
surface radiates into space as infrared radiation. According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law,
if theabsolute temperature (as measured in kelvin) doubles, radiated energy increases
by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).
 Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the sensitivity of the climate system
to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors being equal, a
higher climate sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in
greenhouse gas forcing. Uncertainty over the effect of feedbacks is a major reason why
different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing
scenario. More research is needed to understand the role of clouds and carbon cycle
feedbacks in climate projections.
 The IPCC projections given in the lede span the "likely" range (greater than 66%
probability, based on expert judgement) for the selected emissions scenarios. However,
the IPCC's projections do not reflect the full range of uncertainty. The lower end of the
"likely" range appears to be better constrained than the upper end of the "likely" range.
Solutions to Global Warming

There is no single solution to global warming, which is primarily a problem of too much heat-
trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. (Learn more
about the causes of global warming.) The technologies and approaches outlined below are all
needed to bring down the emissions of these gases by at least 80 percent by mid-century. To
see how they are best deployed in each region of the world, use the menu at left.
 Boosting energy efficiency: The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes,
businesses, and industries is the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy
efficiency technologies allow us to use less energy to get the same—or higher—level of
production, service, and comfort. This approach has vast potential to save both energy
and money, and can be deployed quickly.
 Greening transportation: The transportation sector's emissions have increased at a
faster rate than any other energy-using sector over the past decade. A variety of
 solutions are at hand, including improving efficiency (miles per gallon) in all modes of
transport, switching to low-carbon fuels, and reducing vehicle miles traveled through
smart growth and more efficient mass transportation systems.
 Revving up renewables: Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal and
bioenergy are available around the world. Multiple studies have shown that renewable
energy has the technical potential to meet the vast majority of our energy needs.
Renewable technologies can be deployed quickly, are increasingly cost-effective, and
create jobs while reducing pollution.
 Phasing out fossil fuel electricity: Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels—
especially carbon-intensive coal—is essential to tackle climate change. There are many
ways to begin this process. Key action steps include: not building any new coal-burning
power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants starting with the oldest and
dirtiest, and capturing and storing carbon emissions from power plants. While it may
sound like science fiction, the technology exists to store carbon emissions underground.
The technology has not been deployed on a large scale or proven to be safe and
permanent, but it has been demonstrated in other contexts such as oil and natural gas
recovery. Demonstration projects to test the viability and costs of this technology for
power plant emissions are worth pursuing.
 Managing forests and agriculture: Taken together, tropical deforestation and emissions
from agriculture represent nearly 30 percent of the world's heat-trapping emissions. We
can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.
 Exploring nuclear: Because nuclear power results in few global warming emissions, an
increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming—
but nuclear technology poses serious threats to our security and, as the accident at the
Fukushima Diaichi plant in Japan illustrates to our health and the environment as well.
The question remains: can the safety, proliferation, waste disposal, and cost barriers of
nuclear power be overcome?
 Developing and deploying new low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies: Research into
and development of the next generation of low-carbon technologies will be critical to
deep mid-century reductions in global emissions. Current research on battery
technology, new materials for solar cells, harnessing energy from novel sources like
bacteria and algae, and other innovative areas could provide important breakthroughs.
 Ensuring sustainable development: The countries of the world—from the most to the
least developed—vary dramatically in their contributions to the problem of climate
change and in their responsibilities and capacities to confront it. A successful global
compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to
poorer countries to help make the transition to low-carbon development pathways and
to help adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Adapting to changes already underway: As the Climate Hot Map demonstrates, the impacts of a
warming world are already being felt by people around the globe. If climate change continues
unchecked, these impacts are almost certain to get worse. From sea level rise to heat waves,
from extreme weather to disease outbreaks, each unique challenge requires locally-suitable
solutions to prepare for and respond to the impacts of global warming. Unfortunately, those
who will be hit hardest and first by the impacts of a changing climate are likely to be the poor
and vulnerable, especially those in the least developed countries. Developed countries must
take a leadership role in providing financial and technical help for adaptation.

B. The Effect of GreenHouse

The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is
absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of
this re-radiation is back towards the surface and the lower atmosphere, it results in an
elevation of the average surface temperature above what it would be in the absence of the
gases.

The "greenhouse effect" is the warming that happens when certain gases in Earth's atmosphere
trap heat. These gases let in light but keep heat from escaping, like the glass walls of a
greenhouse.

First, sunlight shines onto the Earth's surface, where it is absorbed and then radiates back into
the atmosphere as heat. In the atmosphere, “greenhouse” gases trap some of this heat, and
the rest escapes into space. The more greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere, the more heat
gets trapped.

Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824, when Joseph Fourier calculated
that the Earth would be much colder if it had no atmosphere. This greenhouse effect is what
keeps the Earth's climate livable. Without it, the Earth's surface would be an average of about
60 degrees Fahrenheit cooler. In 1895, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered that
humans could enhance the greenhouse effect by making carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. He
kicked off 100 years of climate research that has given us a sophisticated understanding of
global warming.

Levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have gone up and down over the Earth's history, but they
have been fairly constant for the past few thousand years. Global average temperatures have
stayed fairly constant over that time as well, until recently. Through the burning of fossil fuels
and other GHG emissions, humans are enhancing the greenhouse effect and warming Earth.
Scientists often use the term "climate change" instead of global warming. This is because as the
Earth's average temperature climbs, winds and ocean currents move heat around the globe in
ways that can cool some areas, warm others, and change the amount of rain and snow falling.
As a result, the climate changes differently in different areas.

Mechanism
The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form UV, visible, and near IR radiation, most of
which passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. Of the total amount of energy
available at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), about 50% is absorbed at the Earth's surface.
Because it is warm, the surface radiates far IR thermal radiation that consists of wavelengths
that are predominantly much longer than the wavelengths that were absorbed (the overlap
between the incident solar spectrum and the terrestrial thermal spectrum is small enough to be
neglected for most purposes). Most of this thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere
and re-radiated both upwards and downwards; that radiated downwards is absorbed by the
Earth's surface. This trapping of long-wavelength thermal radiation leads to a higher
equilibrium temperature than if the atmosphere were absent.

This highly simplified picture of the basic mechanism needs to be qualified in a number of ways,
none of which affect the fundamental process.The solar radiation spectrum for direct light at
both the top of the Earth's atmosphere and at sea level

Synthetic stick absorption spectrum of a simple gas mixture corresponding to the Earth's
atmosphere composition based onHITRAN data created using Hitran on the Web
system. Green color - water vapor, red - carbon dioxide, WN - wavenumber(caution:
lower wavelengths on the right, higher on the left).
 The incoming radiation from the Sun is mostly in the form of visible light and nearby
wavelengths, largely in the range 0.2–4 μm, corresponding to the Sun's radiative
temperature of 6,000 K. Almost half the radiation is in the form of "visible" light, which
our eyes are adapted to use.
 About 50% of the Sun's energy is absorbed at the Earth's surface and the rest is
reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere. The reflection of light back into space—
largely by clouds—does not much affect the basic mechanism; this light, effectively, is
lost to the system.
 The absorbed energy warms the surface. Simple presentations of the greenhouse effect,
such as the idealized greenhouse model, show this heat being lost as thermal radiation.
The reality is more complex: the atmosphere near the surface is largely opaque to
thermal radiation (with important exceptions for "window" bands), and most heat loss
from the surface is by sensible heat and latent heat transport. Radiative energy losses
become increasingly important higher in the atmosphere largely because of the
decreasing concentration of water vapor, an important greenhouse gas. It is more
realistic to think of the greenhouse effect as applying to a "surface" in the mid-
troposphere, which is effectively coupled to the surface by a lapse rate.
 The simple picture assumes a steady state. In the real world there is the diurnal cycle as
well as seasonal cycles and weather. Solar heating only applies during daytime. During
the night, the atmosphere cools somewhat, but not greatly, because its emissivity is
low, and during the day the atmosphere warms. Diurnal temperature changes decrease
with height in the atmosphere.
 Within the region where radiative effects are important the description given by the
idealized greenhouse model becomes realistic: The surface of the Earth, warmed to a
temperature around 255 K, radiates long-wavelength, infrared heat in the range 4–
100 μm. At these wavelengths, greenhouse gases that were largely transparent to
incoming solar radiation are more absorbent. Each layer of atmosphere with
greenhouses gases absorbs some of the heat being radiated upwards from lower layers.
It re-radiates in all directions, both upwards and downwards; in equilibrium (by
 definition) the same amount as it has absorbed. This results in more warmth below.
Increasing the concentration of the gases increases the amount of absorption and re-
radiation, and thereby further warms the layers and ultimately the surface below.
 Greenhouse gases—including most diatomic gases with two different atoms (such as
carbon monoxide, CO) and all gases with three or more atoms—are able to absorb and
emit infrared radiation. Though more than 99% of the dry atmosphere is IR transparent
(because the main constituents—N2, O2, and Ar—are not able to directly absorb or emit
infrared radiation), intermolecular collisions cause the energy absorbed and emitted by
the greenhouse gases to be shared with the other, non-IR-active, gases.

By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are:
 water vapor, 36–70%
 carbon dioxide, 9–26%
 methane, 4–9%
 ozone, 3–7%

Strengthening of the greenhouse effect through human activities is known as the enhanced
(or anthropogenic) greenhouse effect. This increase in radiative forcing from human activity is
attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. According to the latest
Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations".

CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and
tropical deforestation. Measurements of CO2 from the Mauna Loa observatory show that
concentrations have increased from about 313 ppm in 1960 to about 389 ppm in 2010. It
reached the 400ppm milestone on May 9, 2013. The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds
the geological record maxima (~300 ppm) from ice core data. The effect of combustion-
produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first
described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.
 Over the past 800,000 years, ice core data shows that carbon dioxide has varied from
values as low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of
270ppm. Paleoclimatologists consider variations in carbon dioxide concentration to be a
fundamental factor influencing climate variations over this time scale.

C. The Rise of Sea Level

Current sea level rise is about 3 mm/year worldwide. According to the US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), "this is a significantly larger rate than the sea-level rise
averaged over the last several thousand years", and the rate may be increasing. Sea level rises
can considerably influence human populations in coastal and island regions and natural
environments like marine ecosystems.
Between 1870 and 2004, global average sea levels rose a total of 195 mm (7.7 in), and 1.46 mm
(0.057 in) per year. From 1950 to 2009, measurements show an average annual rise in sea level
of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data showing a rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993
to 2009, a faster rate of increase than previously estimated. It is unclear whether the increased
rate reflects an increase in the underlying long-term trend.

There are two main mechanisms that contribute to observed sea level rise: (1) thermal
expansion: ocean water expands as it warms; and (2) the melting of major stores of land ice
like glaciers and ice sheets.

The rise in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by this ongoing global
climate change:

1.Thermal expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in
sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.
Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps: Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps,
naturally melt back a bit each summer. But in the winter, snows, made primarily from
evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though,
persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average
summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This
imbalance results in a significant net gain in runoff versus evaporation for the ocean, causing
sea levels to rise.
2.Ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica: As with glaciers and the ice caps, increased
heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt at an
accelerated pace. Scientists also believe meltwater from above and seawater from below is
seeping beneath Greenland's and West Antarctica's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice
streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. Moreover, higher sea
temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from
below, weaken, and break off.

Consequences
When sea levels rise rapidly, as they have been doing, even a small increase can have
devastating effects on coastal habitats. As seawater reaches farther inland, it can cause
destructive erosion, flooding of wetlands, contamination of aquifers and agricultural soils, and
lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

When large storms hit land, higher sea levels mean bigger, more powerful storm surges that
can strip away everything in their path.

In addition, hundreds of millions of people live in areas that will become increasingly vulnerable
to flooding. Higher sea levels would force them to abandon their homes and relocate. Low-lying
islands could be submerged completely.
How High Will It Go?
Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans
will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent
study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by
2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates,
including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, push sea level rise to 23 feet (7
meters), enough to submerge London.

D. Glacier Melt
A glacier is a persistent body of dense ice that is constantly moving under its own weight; it
forms where the accumulation of snow exceeds its ablation (melting and sublimation) over
many years, often centuries. Glaciers slowly deform and flow due to stresses induced by their
weight, creating crevasses, seracs, and other distinguishing features. They also abrade rock and
debris from their substrate to create landforms such as cirques and moraines. Glaciers form
only on land and are distinct from the much thinner sea ice and lake ice that form on the
surface of bodies of water.

All of the phases of water—solid, liquid and vapor—relate to glacier dynamics. Water has
unique qualities that come into play in understanding the roles glaciers play in the Earth
system. For example, water expands rapidly when it freezes—an increase of about 9% by
volume. Also, water enters the atmosphere through the familiar cycle of melting and
evaporation, but water can also enter the atmosphere directly from a solid state through a
process known as sublimation. Also, water—the only substance that is lighter in its solid (ice)
than its liquid state—has more density as salt water than as fresh water.

The melting fresh water from glaciers alters the ocean, not only by directly contributing to the
global sea level rise, but also because it pushes down the heavier salt water, thereby changing
what scientists call the THC, or Thermo (heat) Haline (salt) Circulation, meaning currents in the
ocean. This has an immediate effect on the near region, such as the north Atlantic off the coast
of Greenland, but ultimately the impacts can ripple far beyond the immediate area and climate.
Ice that took centuries to develop can vanish in just a few years. A glacier doesn’t melt slowly
and steadily like an ice cube on a table. Once glacial ice begins to break down, the interaction of
meltwater and sea water with the glacier’s structure can cause increasingly fast melting and
retreat. Today, Earth’s surface is made up of 71% water, 10% ice and 19% land. Most of the
world’s ice is in the Arctic and Antarctic, but some of it is scattered around Earth in the form of
mountain glaciers.
Water not only expands when frozen, but also when heated, and it is estimated that in the 21st
century the melting of ice caps and glaciers combined with the thermal expansion of ocean
water will cause an average increase of sea level of roughly a meter (a bit more than one yard).
That’s an average; in some places it will rise more and in others less, in part because (as we now
know through satellite measurements) sea level itself varies, bulging in some places and
slumping in others. In Greenland, for example, it is expected that as the ice melts into the ocean
the land mass will rebound, in effect “bouncing back” after it was pushed down by the weight
of the ice. Sea levels may actually go down in some regions, but rising sea levels will be a critical
issue in many other parts of the planet, adversely affecting billions of people in India,
Bangladesh and China as well as along the U.S. Gulf and Northwest coasts.

As the planet’s air conditioner, the polar ice caps impact weather and climate dynamics, such as
the jet stream. Glaciers are also early indicators of climate changes that will have a somewhat
more delayed impact on other parts of the Earth system. Glaciers are sentinels of climate
change. They are the most visible evidence of global warming today. In addition to raising sea
water levels, widespread loss of glaciers will likely alter climate patterns in other, complex
ways. For example, glaciers’ white surfaces reflect the sun’s rays, helping to keep our current
climate mild. When glaciers melt, darker exposed surfaces absorb and release heat, raising
temperatures. Our way of life is based on climate as we know it.

Where in the world will the greatest impact of climate change and melting glaciers be felt?
Melting glaciers have several different effects. For example, the melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas will affect the drinking supplies of the millions of people who rely on meltwater
rivers. In addition, when sea levels rise, people living close to sea level will have their homes
flooded. This will have a major impact on the hundreds of millions of people living on low-lying
land in Bangladesh. Out of the four places suggested: Asia, Africa, the Arctic and the Amazon,
the impact of climate change and melting glaciers is likely to be felt most in Asia, because this is
the region that has the highest population.

What is the global threat of glaciers melting?

The key milestones for a possible future sea-level rise timeline are:
 World sea-level is expected to rise 60cm to 70cm by 2100; but this is mostly due to
thermal expansion (as the sea gets warmer, it expands)
 Significant glacier melting in Artic, Antarctic, Himalayan and Alpine regions could
produce another metre of sea-level rise by around 2200
 If greenhouse gas emissions keep rising, the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets could
one day melt completely, bringing 7m and 60m rises respectively. However, this might
take hundreds of years

Who is most at risk from glaciers melting and sea levels rising?
Poorer places and people are more vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise than richer places
and people because they lack the capacity to change as well. Sea level rises over the next
hundred years or so are more likely to cause mass migrations than mass mortality because the
timescale for sea level rise is such a long one that in the main, changes are likely to be gradual.
It is unknown where the world's poorest people will migrate to in order to escape rising sea
levels and what the consequences of this movement will be.

The IPCC (Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change) has projected major eustatic changes
in sea-level over the next 100 years if CO2 levels continue to climb towards the danger level of
550 parts per million (ppm). It has long been recognised that any sea level rise will have a
disproportionately bigger effect on some countries than others. The worst effects will be felt by
those that are:
 Coastal and low-lying (thus at greatest risk of flooding)
 Poor and highly-populated (thus lacking a capacity to cope)

Bangladesh is certainly worth discussing. It has a GDP per capita of just $1,300 and a very low
Human Development Index score (the nation is ranked 140th). Bangladesh is also a terribly
vulnerable country, with much of its land close to sea level on the Ganges delta, where the land
is naturally sinking and subsiding in any case.

Many other nations are at serious risk of sea-level rise. The poorest of these lack the resources
needed to adapt to climate change. In a high-emissions future, some places could be
abandoned entirely:
 The Maldives. Most of the tiny islands that make up the Maldives are less than two
metres above sea level. The 300,000 people that live there may soon become climate
change refugees. In 2008, the Maldives President asked neighbours India and Sri Lanka if
he could buy some of their land
 The Pacific island state of Tuvalu. Half of Tuvalu's 10,000 residents live within three
metres of today's sea-level. Many islanders think they may soon need to migrate
elsewhere

E. Climate Change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution
of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change
in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions
(i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by factors such
as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic
eruptions. Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent
climate change, often referred to as "global warming".

Causes
On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it
is lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth. This energy is
distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the
climates of different regions.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms". These
include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-
building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a
variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some
parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to
climate forcings, while others respond more quickly.

Forcing mechanisms can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are
natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External
forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or anthropogenic (e.g.,
increased emissions of greenhouse gases).

Whether the initial forcing mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate
system might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight),
slow (e.g. thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss
of albedo in the arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of
the water). Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing
mechanisms might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer.

Our Earth is warming. Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and
is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5°F over the next hundred years. Small changes in the
average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in
climate and weather.

The evidence is clear. Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in
weather and climate. Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods,
droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves. The planet's oceans
and glaciers have also experienced some big changes - oceans are warming and becoming more
acidic, ice caps are melting, and sea levels are rising. As these and other changes become more
pronounced in the coming decades, they will likely present challenges to our society and our
environment.

Humans are largely responsible for recent climate change

Over the past century, human activities have released large amounts of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The majority of greenhouse gases come from
burning fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation, industrial processes, and some
agricultural practices also emit gases into the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases act like a blanket around Earth, trapping energy in the atmosphere and
causing it to warm. This phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect and is natural and
necessary to support life on Earth. However, the buildup of greenhouse gases can change
Earth's climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems.
The choices we make today will affect the amount of greenhouse gases we put in the
atmosphere in the near future and for years to come.
Climate change affects everyone
 Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions
 Multimedia Gallery
Our lives are connected to the climate. Human societies have adapted to the relatively stable
climate we have enjoyed since the last ice age which ended several thousand years ago. A
warming climate will bring changes that can affect our water supplies, agriculture, power and
transportation systems, the natural environment, and even our own health and safety.
Some changes to the climate are unavoidable. Carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for
nearly a century, so Earth will continue to warm in the coming decades. The warmer it gets, the
greater the risk for more severe changes to the climate and Earth's system. Although it's
difficult to predict the exact impacts of climate change, what's clear is that the climate we are
accustomed to is no longer a reliable guide for what to expect in the future.

We can reduce the risks we will face from climate change. By making choices that reduce
greenhouse gas pollution, and preparing for the changes that are already underway, we can
reduce risks from climate change. Our decisions today will shape the world our children and
grandchildren will live in.
We can make a difference

We can take action. We can take steps at home, on the road, and in our office to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and the risks associated with climate change. Many of these steps
can save us money; some, such as walking or biking to work can even improve our health! We
can also get involved on a local or state level to support energy efficiency, clean energy
programs, or other climate programs.