Major Powers

in the Indo-Pacific
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
Vietnam People’s Army Australia Study Tour 2019
The University of New South Wales
at the Australian Defence Force Academy
Canberra, September 20, 2019
 Introduction
Regional Order in the Indo-Pacific
Balance of
Power

Major International
Powers Law

Force &
Diplomacy
Coercion
 China: ‘Period of Strategic Opportunity’
• Regional focus
• Taiwan main priority
• 2nd island chain, East China Sea, South China Sea
• Chinese military planners have reached critical point of
confidence they can match competitors in combat
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
• Expanding global interests
• Sea lines of communications and port access
 United States: Free and Open Indo-Pacific

• U.S. National Security Strategy & National Defense Strategy

• Networked alliances and strategic partners
• China and Russia as revisionist powers and strategic competitors
• Free and Open Indo-Pacific
• Freedom of navigation, free trade, finance to compete with BRI
• US National Defense Authorization Act of 2019
• Funding for whole-of-government pushback against China’s
economic, security and political challenges
Trump’s Transactional Foreign Policy

Robert C. O’Brien Patrick Shanahan Mike Pompeo

National Security Adviser A/Secretary of Defense Secretary of State
 Other Major Powers
• Japan
• US alliance cornerstone, alignment of strategy and guidelines
• Cyber attack could invoke Article V of Security Treaty
• Increased regional political and expansive military role
• India
• Focus on Pakistan, land border with China and West Indian Ocean
• Closer strategic relationship with the U.S.
• Russia
• Collaboration with China vis-à-vis U.S.
 Rules-Based Order
• UN Sanctions on North Korea
• Ship-to-ship transfers, illicit trade
• UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
• Arbitral Tribunal Award moribund; China and historical rights
• World Trade Organisation
• Dispute settlement, national security clause, sanctions and
restrictions
• Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership
• Membership expansion?
 Diplomacy
• Trade disputes, tariffs and currency manipulation
• U.S-China, U.S.-Japan, U.S.-Viet Nam
• Denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula
• Bilateral U.S.- DPRK
• Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
• Multilateral China and 10 ASEAN members
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
• Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement for the Indo-Pacific?
 Force and Coercion
• North Korea
• Continued production of fissile material, rockets, short range ballistic missiles
• Militarisation - China
• Taiwan
• Senkaku Islands and South China Sea (grey area short of force)
• Militarisation - United States
• Increased defence spending
• Modernisation of nuclear forces
• Continuous naval and bomber presence, FONOPS in South China Sea,
combined naval exercises (US, Japan, india)
• Regional force modernization – arms buildup
 Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific
Net Assessment
• China is the predominate regional economic power
• U.S. and Japan remain strongly engaged – trade, investment
• U.S. is the predominate military power but its relative
military power is being challenged by China’s rise
• 4.0 Technology – AI, computational, space and cyber – will be crucial
• ’Multiplex’ regional order
• elements of the liberal order will continue, but will be subsumed in a complex
of multiple, crosscutting international relationships (Amitav Acharya)
• Strategic rivalry will lead to renewed confrontation in the maritime domain
 Major Powers
in the Indo-Pacific
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
Vietnam People’s Army Australia Study Tour 2019
The University of New South Wales
at the Australian Defence Force Academy
Canberra, September 20, 2019