Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)

Vol-2, Issue-5, 2016

ISSN: 2454-1362, http://www.onlinejournal.in

Review to the Duckworth-Lewis Method

Using Data Mining Techniques
Rohan Brahme1*, Roshan Birar2, Poonam Kadnar3 &
Prof. Suruchi Malao4
1,2,3,4
Department of Computer Engineering, K. K. Wagh Institute of Engg. Education &
Research, Savitribai Phule Pune University, India
Abstract- The Duckworth - Lewis system represents
mathematical formulation used to get a target score B. Duckworth-Lewis Method
for cricket matches interrupted by bad weather Two British statisticians Frank Duckworth and
conditions. The Duckworth-Lewis (D/L) method Tony Lewis developed their Method called
considers only two factors to provide updated target Duckworth-Lewis (D/L) method which is nothing but
i.e. number of runs which can be scored in the a statistical method used to predict the target score of
remaining innings as a function of the number of the team batting second in a limited overs game which
overs remaining and the number of wickets in hand. is interrupted by unavoidable circumstances. The D/L
We will be using WEKA tool to find bias in current method, a system based on mathematical model
D/L system and capably illustrate those. considers only two resources – wickets left and overs
Duckworth Lewis system has observed to be remaining. When overs are lost, setting an adjusted
biased towards the team batting first and the team target is not as simple as to reduce the batting team’s
winning the toss from the scenarios like interruption target proportionally, because a team batting second
of the game for multiple times in same match and fall with wickets in hand can be expected to play more
wickets in death overs while batting second. Bias in aggressively than one with full 50 over’s and hence
the context of the outline is defined as taking can achieve a higher run rate. So then Duckworth &
advantage of the assets of systems such as the Lewis (1998) considered the most common situation
D/Lewis method. We also explore to show that such where two terms play a full length game.
taking advantage of the system permits prediction of
the result of the match winner which is better than
just chance. Using the above analysis, we propose a
modification to the existing Duckworth Lewis system
by considering the observed patterns from the dataset
as an additional resource to reduce the bias along
with the existing resources to predict the target score.

Keywords- Cricket, Duckworth - Lewis, WEKA, C4.5,

Decision Trees.

I. INTRODUCTION
A. The game of Cricket
The above graph [1] shows the percentage of
As mentioned in [1]. Cricket is a bat-and-ball team
resources remaining for a team to the number of overs
sport that is originated in England and is one of the
bowled. As we see it in an exponential graph reducing
most popular games in the world. Moving on from the
as more number of wickets keep falling and comes
conventional Test cricket, it has slowly ventured into
down to zero when the 9th wicket falls. Duckworth-
limited over formats like ODI and T20 so that a
Lewis observed a close connection between the
definite result is obtained, making it more entertaining
availability of these resources and team’s final score,
as a spectator sport. Sometimes due constraints like
which this algorithm tries to exploit.
bad weather (rain, sandstorms and bad lights),
In above table the remaining overs are plotted
floodlight failure and crowd issue certain amount of
against wickets lost.
overs are lost and hence a definite result isn’t
obtained. To overcome these obstacles methods have
been devised to revise target scores and/or declare a
winner.

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Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)
Vol-2, Issue-5, 2016
ISSN: 2454-1362, http://www.onlinejournal.in

1. South Africa vs. New Zealand, Durban,

November 2000
Batting first for New Zealand and score
was 81 for 5 after 27.2 overs when rain
reduced the game to 49 overs per side.
Then, with New Zealand on 114 for 5 in
32.4, their innings was stopped due to
rain, and the second innings was
shortened to 32 overs. South Africa's got
new target according to the D/L charts
was 153, but modified version suggests
that the target would have been 156. At
the time when game was interrupted, New
Zealand's run rate was 3.48 for five
wickets down and 17.2 overs to spare.
Resource Percentage Table
According to D/L's modified calculations,
South Africa's required run rate would be
The above table [3] is the calculation of percentage
4.87.
of resources left. Here the percentage of resources are
calculated beforehand by taking into consideration of
2. West Indies vs. New Zealand, Port-of-
the overs left and the wickets lost and is stored in the
Spain, 2002
table so that it comes in handy while calculating the
New Zealand made 212 for 5 in 44.2
revised target. This table is actually referred to while
overs while batting first, when their
Duckworth Lewis comes into picture.
innings was called off and West Indies'
However, some of the factors like the toss may
chase was truncated to 33 overs. D/L
play a crucial role while deciding the winner since it
calculated their revised target at the time
involves a lot of speculation and research while
as 212. Again, a comparison of run rates
deciding bat or field first after winning the toss. For
raises a few questions. New Zealand's run
example, the analysis of pitch report, previous history
rate at the end of their innings was 4.78;
of the ground, and expected weather conditions and
West Indies' required rate in 33 overs
these factors that suggests the decision. In rain
according to D/L is 6.36, an increase of
affected matches the batting first is the advantageous
33%.
decision. After rain, the pitch becomes soft and
outfield becomes slow and the ball bounces unevenly,
3. South Africa vs. New Zealand,
making it difficult to bat as mentioned in [2].
Johannesburg, WC2003
Replying to South Africa's imposing 306
C. Duckworth-Lewis Model
for 6 in 50 overs, New Zealand, riding on
Objective of D/L system was to find method that
Stephen Fleming's outstanding century,
must follow the criteria given below.
were 182 for 1 in 30.2 when rain reduced
1. It must maintain exact fairness to both
the chase to 39 overs. According to the
sides.
new D/L calculations, the revised target
2. It must give appropriate result in all
would have been 229 (it was 226 at the
possible situations.
time). The point of contention is this: at
3. Team 1’s scoring pattern should not affect
the time of the interruption, New
the revised target for team 2 in an
Zealand's required rate was 6.35 runs per
interrupted game.
over, stretching over a period of almost 20
The interruption of game for multiple times during
overs. Going by the current D/L
same match and the fall of wickets in death overs
calculations, the required run rate on
cause the unfair dealing with target prediction. So the
resumption is 5.42, over a period of just
data mining to reduce such bias in specific conditions
8.4 overs - obviously, the rain has
should be done.
simplified New Zealand's task enormously
(though the D/L contention is that New
Zealand are reaping the rewards of being
D. Controversial D/L method decided
well ahead of the par score at the point of
matches [2]
interruption).
Some actual scenarios from ODIs that highlight the
shortcomings in D/L method:

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Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)
Vol-2, Issue-5, 2016
ISSN: 2454-1362, http://www.onlinejournal.in
E. Formula for D/L score calculation[6]
Let,
S: Team 1’s score [4]
R1: Resources % available to team 1 (from R. P.
table)
R2: Resources % available to team 2 (from R. P.
table)
T: Target score for team 2
Case 1:
If R1>R2,
T=S(R1/R2)+1;
Reduces team’s score in proportion to reduction in
resources
Case 2:
If R1=R2,
T=S+1;
No adjustment required
Case 3:
If R1<R2;
T=S+[G50*(R2-R1)/100]+1;
Where G50 for matches involving ICC full
member nations, at present is 235
Increase team 2 target score by the extra runs that
are predicted in accordance with the extra resources
F. Project Goals
The primary goal of this project is to evaluate the
Duckworth Lewis system and identify its limitations
from scenarios and patterns. In addition to evaluation
of system we want to propose an interesting extension
which will be capable to address these limitations. We
are not needed to propose an entirely new model
some additional resources along with the former will
do the job. In the try to identify the shortcomings in
the existing D/L we are going to use the data mining
classification algorithm C4.5 using WEKA tool and
propose an extension to D/L method. We would like
to show that data mining techniques (classification
using WEKA tool) can be used as effective tools to
evaluate systems such as the D/L method and also
devise alternative models.
II. LITRATURE SURVEY
As mentioned above in order to extent the present
system WEKA tool was used to identify patterns in
the data. WEKA tools are mainly used to deal with
different predicators that different aspects of the game
like pitch degradation, net run-rate, and toss. WEKA
tools are applied on the sample dataset of matches
which were affected by D/L and their scores were re-
evaluated.
In such matches the interruption of game for
multiple times in same match gives unfair prediction
in target also while batting second the fall of wickets
Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)
in death over cause unfair result if inning gets
truncated.
We are going to these tools to extract such
patterns and will try to minimise bias. This is the
foundation for evaluation part of the project and base
input for extension part.
Following are some observed patterns [2]:
1. Pattern 1: Team winning the toss wins the
matches in 66% cases.
2. Pattern 2: Team batting first wins the
match in 64% cases.
3. Pattern 3: 54% of teams winning toss
elects to field first in the rain affected
matches.
4. Pattern 4: Average of difference in run
rate between winning and losing team
scores is not significant
A. Inferences from the above patterns[2]
1. D/L method has been biased towards the
team batting 1st.
2. D/L method has been biased towards the
team winning the toss.
3. D/L method stresses more on wickets
rather than run rate and the runs scored.
Based on the above observations, we have a
heuristic model to predict the winner in a match
decided by D/L method. In this model, we calculate a
weighted score for each of the two teams using the
following formula[2]:
Weighted Score = (overall probability of winning)
×
[α (toss winner or toss loser) +
β (batting or fielding) +
γ (rainy season or no rainy season)
× (home or away or neutral)]
Historically, in matches decided by Duckworth-
Lewis[2]:
1. The team batting first won on 64% of the
occasions involving two of the top nine teams.
2. In 66% of the occasions, the team winning the
toss has won.
3. In 54% of the occasions, the team winning the
toss decides to field.
4. In 82% of the occasions, matches were affected
by rain.
Where:
α=0.66 …from (1)
β=0.64 …from (2)
γ = 0.82 * 0.54 * 0.36 from (3 and 4)
III. MOTIVATION
Page 549
Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)
Vol-2, Issue-5, 2016
ISSN: 2454-1362, http://www.onlinejournal.in
Duckworth-Lewis method was introduced in the
late 1990s and has since been adopted by all major
cricketing boards. No other sport uses a statistical
method to select the winning target for a match. But
the peculiarities of cricket and its susceptibility to bad
weather have made it imperative to and such a
solution for matches where a result is mandatory.
Cricket one of the most popular game in the world.
With billions of followers around the world and
extension to the D/L method is probably the greatest
contribution to the sporting world from a
mathematical, statistical and operational research
perspective.
IV. EVALUATION OF THE DUCKWORTH LEWIS
METHOD AND IDENTIFICATION OF IT’S
LIMITATIONS
B. Description of Dataset[4]
The dataset consists of information of all the
matches that were affected by inclement weather and
the location. i.e. the country and the stadium where
Duckworth Lewis method had come to use. The
dataset consists mainly of One Day International
(ODI) matches of teams from India, Pakistan,
England, West Indies, South Africa, New Zealand, Sri
Lanka, Australia, Bangladesh & Afghanistan. [2]
V. EXTENSION TO THE DUCKWORTH LEWIS
METHOD
In the analysis part of the project we will show
the exploitation of D/L towards the team batting first
and the team winning the toss using data mining
techniques. We also have some of the sample
examples to show the bias in the system. There are
several factors which causes exploitation in the
system such as interruption of the game for multiple
times during same match, fall of wickets in death
overs which leads to unfair changes in the target
score prediction. So we will extract such ‘n’ number
of factors using WEKA tool and these patterns will be
provided to the Duckworth-Lewis method calculator
along with its former inputs No. of overs to be played
and No. of wickets as a resources.
Bias in the system gives permission to guess the
winner of the match in rain affected games which
marks a question on D/L system sometimes.
Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR)
Target score=Target score by D/L method * [p1
*p2*….*pn]
Where:
pi is a bias reducing parameter for ith pattern,
VI. CONCLUSIONS
This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate
the Duckworth Lewis system which is used to predict
the target score in rain affected cricket matches when
one or both the teams have had their innings
shortened. Using sophisticated data mining techniques
such as C4.5 with help of WEKA tool we will
discover the bias in the D/L method from different
patterns extracted from sample dataset using WEKA
tool. The observed bias will be in the favor the team
batting first and the team winning the toss. The
additional resources while giving the input to the
system will be the patterns when D/L gives unfair
prediction such as interruption of game for multiple
times in the same match that and fall of wickets in
death overs the will help to reduce the bias.
VII. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Our thanks to Prof. Dr. S. S. Sane and Mr. Sameer
Mainkar for guidance and support.
VIII. REFERENCES
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cricket
[2] Phanse V. & Deorah S. (2011, December). Evaluation and
Extension to the Duckworth Lewis Method: A Dual
Application of Data Mining Techniqies. In Data Mining
Workshop (ICDMW), 2011 IEEE 11th International
Conference on (pp. 763-770). IEEE
[3] Frank Duckworth, The Duckworth/Lewis method: an
exercise in Maths, Stats, OR and communications in MSOR
Connections Vol 8 No 3 August – October 2008
[4] http://www.espncricinfo.com/
[5] Schall R. & Weatheral D. (2013). Accuracy and fairness of
rain rules for interrupted one-day cricket matches. Journal of
Applied statistics, 40(11), 2462-2479
[6] Harshil Shah, Jay Sampat, Rushabh & Kiran Bhowmick
(2015). Review of Duckworth Lewis Method
[7] Parera H. P. & Swartz T. B. (2013). Resource estimation in
T20 cricket. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics,
24(3), 337-347.
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