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Newspaper extinction timeline

When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017

UK, Iceland 2019

Canada, Norway 2020

Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021

Australia, Hong Kong 2022

Denmark 2023

New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024

Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025

South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026

Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027

Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028

France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029

Germany, Estonia 2030

Japan, Metro China 2031

Hungary, Lithuania 2032

Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033

Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034

Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035

Russia, Turkey 2036

Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037

Mongolia 2038

Argentina 2039
— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas
Rest of the world 2040+

• Media strategy Created by Ross Dawson


• Thought leadership content
• Scenario planning www.futureexploration.net Published under a Creative Commons
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Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors
Technology uptake Economic Industry structure
Increased cost Fixed bandwidth development Financial position of
performance availability and costs Economic growth rate leading newspapers
of mobile Mobile bandwidth Wealth inequality Balance of advertising
phones availability and costs and print sales revenue
Increased cost Development Urban/ regional wealth
Smartphone and e-reader disparity Newspaper distribution
performance of high penetration structures
of tablets/ performance
e-readers digital paper

Changes in GLOBAL
Uptake of NATIONAL
newsprint digital news
and print monetization
production mechanisms
costs

Demographics Government Consumer behaviors


Age structure, birth rates, Degree of regulation Media channel preferences
Trends in and immigration
Development Government financial Willingness to pay for news
advertising Degree of urbanization support for media
of open Relative interest in local
spend and
platforms Increase in literacy Censorship and and global news
allocation obstruction

* Notes to the timeline Services include: fen@futureexploration.net

This schedule for newspaper Newspapers in their Ways that newspaper publishers of • Media Strategy USA: (415) 315 9566
extinction shows best current form becoming today will succeed in the transition
• Scenario Planning
estimates given current trends. insignificant is not the beyond “newspapers in their Australia: +61-2 9994 8011
Future Exploration Network helps • Future of Media Workshops
The timeline is intended to same as the death of current form” include transitioning
highlight the diversity of global news-on-paper, which to other channels, providing media organizations to engage with • Thought Leadership Content
media markets and stimulate will continue in a personalized news-on-paper, and the future, build effective strategies, • Executive Briefings and
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