CHANING SECURITY DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN: Hurdles in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Making

Speaking earlier this year at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs on “Continuing Search for
Stability:Pakistan and Afghanistan,”

Noted Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid was quoted as saying by Dawn that Pakistan has made two
“grievous mistakes” in its foreign policy.

1. The first came at the end of the Cold War, he said, when Pakistan decided to “move proxy
resources to Kashmir,” radicalizing the Kashmiri nationalist movement.”
2. The second major error, according to Rashid, came in 2003 when General Pervez Musharraf
decided to resurrect (revive) the Afghan Taliban.

Resulted:

This proved a shot in the arm for the Pakistani Taliban, and within several years local militants in
Pakistan were “calling for the overthrow of the Pakistani state.” Increasingly, Pakistan was being
accused by neighboring countries of providing safe sanctuaries for militants on Pakistani soil.

Principles OF PAKISTAN’s Foreign Policy:

 Washington, D.C.-based political analyst and author Aparna Pande told The Diplomat:
“There are two underlying principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy and these principles have
remained paramount right from the creation of the country till today.
 The first is the desire to ‘escape India’ in the sense of creating a national identity that was
anti-India. Thus, Pakistan has preferred to be referred to as a Greater Middle Eastern
country not a South Asian one, because South Asian would mean accepting that Pakistan
was part of the greater Indian civilization.
 The second principle underlying Pakistan’s policy is the desire for parity with India – not
sovereign equality which every country has but parity – and this is specifically with respect
to military parity (both conventional and nuclear) and economic parity.”
 She continued: “While every country adjusts its foreign policy somewhat depending on
changing circumstances, and Pakistan is no exception, I have yet to see any paradigm shift in
Pakistan’s foreign policy.”
 “Pakistan still continues to use jihad as an element of its foreign policy with respect to India
and Afghanistan.
 Its policy towards the United States is still aimed at obtaining military hardware (such as F-
16s), economic assistance, and making promises it is unwilling or unable to keep (like
promising talks with Afghan Taliban that have yet to result in anything concrete, promising
action against jihadi groups but still differentiating between good and bad jihadis).”

Pakistan today is faced with multi-dimensional challenges in socio-economic, socio-

political and geostrategic fields. Although many countries around the world are witnessing a
paradigm shift with geoeconomy overshadowing geostrategy, but in Pakistan this shift has not yet
happened.

Without review of past policies and formulation of an implementable national and international
security policy options, the traditional and non-traditional security threats loom large. To timely
address these threats, Pakistan needs to formulate a comprehensive policy with long term gains
supported by short term visible actions, in order to make sustainable and worthwhile partnerships.

Focus of all the efforts by Pakistan’s security policy makers should hinge upon keeping the national
interests at the forefront, while keeping points of confrontation at the back end.

Basic factors that tend to define Pakistan security policy interests in South Asia should include:

 Dealing with deteriorating law and order situation in Pakistan, that is one of the
major hindrance creating cooperation gaps between Pakistan and regional
states.
Shifting security paradigms, i.e., from the pursuance of only traditional security
to adoption of an all-encompassing policy addressing both traditional and non-
traditional security issues. Complex security situation today makes it evident
that traditional security perspective has neither provided security of life and
property to its own nationals, nor to foreign investors.
 India’s hegemonic designs within South Asia and its adjacent countries that pose
fundamental threat to Pakistan’s territorial integrity.

 Emergence of new blocs like Indo-US Nexus, Iran becoming a focal point of US
hostility, and a continued instability in Afghanistan.

 As far as emergence of Indo-U.S. Nexus is concerned, in order to safeguard

legitimate national interests, Pakistan should pressurize and convince USA to
prevent India’s role in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also make its alliance states
recognize that whatever India does in Afghanistan is her hostile manoeuvre
against Pakistan.

 With regard to Iranian issue, Pakistan should maintain overt neutrality. As far as
dealing with the issue of Afghanistan instability is concerned, Pakistan has
legitimate interest in securing peace in Afghanistan, based upon its desire to
have a stable and peaceful regime on its west in order to further her economic
interests in South Asia.
 Unfortunately, Pakistan’s Afghan policy has remained hazy. Irrespective of
Afghanistan’s reservations about Pakistan’s alleged relations with the Taliban,
Afghan factor should not move Pakistan away from pursuing what is in its best
interests. Such a strategy be formulated that make both sides value common
advantages.

 In addition to above-mentioned factors, other aspects that also need to be dealt

as main ingredients of furthering Pakistan’s security policy objectives in South
Asia include;
Institutionalizing all-encompassing relations with China as it is likely to become
a major regional and global economic power.
  Developing Gwadar as an energy gateway, in the world governed by
geoeconomics.

 Establishing friendly relations with CARs states that will prove vital for Pakistan’s
future in the region. The natural gas and hydrocarbon transit routes from CARs
are oriented towards Arabian Sea through the triangle formed by Iran,
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
 Pakistan needs a well-developed communication infrastructure in order to have
strong links with CARs for establishment of their dependence on Pakistani ports.

 Availing petro diplomacy as an option to establish friendly relations with Russia

and India. Establishment of pipeline from CARs to India through Pakistan by
Russian companies is likely to make Russia and India as stake holders in the
project and their own interests will project them to maintain good relations with
Pakistan.

 Pakistan should strive for membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

and Central Asian Cooperation. Pakistan can devise and offer military support
options; business friendly rules joint economic ventures and EXPOs.

 Possibility of transforming ECO into powerful economic block, instead of

projecting it as an Islamic body arrayed against West or Russia.

 Lying on the edge of West and South Asia, Pakistan has distinct geostrategic
advantage over rest of the regional players, which remains unutilized. In a
globalized world that manifests complex interdependence, Pakistan’s
sovereignty and economic prosperity is interlinked with states composing and
sharing borders of South Asia. As for the whole world, this New World Order has
also created distinct opportunities and challenges for Pakistan that demands
from its policy makers to devise such a regional security policy that should
address grave issues on priority basis, inhibit such policy options that makes
Pakistan vulnerable to foreign exploiters and to move forward with mutual
coherence of regional states in order to secure peace for the future.

Factors to responsible for national security:

There are three factors primarily contributing to her customary domestic insecurities

A narrow and weakly defined purpose of Pakistan regarding the concept of Islamic states; the

1. deological base of Pakistan is vulnerable by the ethnic, cultural and lingual dominance of
the four provinces. The successful Islamic ideology following Pakistan movement cannot be
continued among the various nature of people of Pakistan
2. The absence of harmony on the development of national institutions, the breakdown of
leadership and the political institutions in raising a common strategy to address all the
security concerns
3. The different nature of the state that conquered its area with the weak federal connection.(
 But, today it can be possibly asserted that the critical threat to national security in Pakistan
emanates additional from internal sources quite than external
  General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, admitted in his policy speech in
2012 that internal threat is larger than that of an external threat
 Fahmida Mirza, Speaker National Assembly is of the view that ‘terrorism and extremism are
the major threats to the security, calm and solidity in the region and poverty, illiteracy and
unemployment are the major causes’

CRACKDOWN ON TALIBAN AFTER ARMY PUBLIC INCIDENT:

 In the wake of the Taliban’s assault on Peshawar’s Army Public School at the end of 2014, it
was widely believed that both the civil and military leaderships of Pakistan were keen to
improve bilateral relations with its neighbors.
 The army launched a robust crackdown on militant groups in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) and elsewhere in the country. As a result, complaints from Pakistan’s
neighbors eased, even if they didn’t quite disappear entirely.

PAKISTAN STANCE ON YEMEN AND SYRIA:

 Meanwhile, Pakistan stayed out of the Yemen conflict, instead declaring that it would
remain neutral. Then, in December last year, Islamabad surprised many observers when it
announced that it opposed any attempt to topple Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime.
Speaking with the media,
 Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry said, “Pakistan is also against foreign
military intervention in Syria and fully supports the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab
Republic.”

PAKISTAN AND MILITANCY:

 Militancy has once again strained the country’s ties with India and Afghanistan following
tragic incidents in both countries, for which Pakistan was blamed.
 Ironically, Saudi Arabia, which has its own links to jihad, also raised doubts about Pakistan,
with the Saudi Interior Ministry identifying the Jeddah bomber as Pakistani national
Abdullah Qlazar Khan.
 For their part, Pakistani authorities vigorously deny any connection to the attacks, and insist
that their soil is not being used against other countries.
 AT INDIA:They cite the Pathankot attack, noting that the director general of India’s National
Investigation Agency, Sharad Kumar himself said that there was no evidence to suggest that
the Pakistani government was involved.
 Still, in recent months, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has spoken on television of
his regret that relations with the U.S. are deteriorating, while criticizing Pakistan’s entry into
the war of Afghanistan in 1979 to oust the Soviet Union and its nurturing of terrorists after
9/11, when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan.
AFGHAN REFUGEE:

 Two and a half million Afghan refugees living in Pakistan could be sent back, despite not
being born in Afghanistan and never having lived there.
 Citing security concerns, Pakistan says the refugees must leave the country by the end of the
year.
 It is a decision described by rights groups as "one of the largest forcible returns of refugees
in modern history".
 Afghan refugees have been living in Pakistan since the early 1980s, when they fled from
Soviet invasion.
 Pakistan has hosted more than three million Afghan refugees over the past several decades.
 The government has repeatedly set and extended deadlines for the refugees to leave.
 But it says this year is final, calling it a matter of national security.

NON STATE ACTORS:

 the country is also fighting a directionless war against a wide definition of terrorists. These
are stateless groups from TTP to Daesh to sectarian killers to armed assets of political
parties.
 Justice Qazi’s Quetta Commission Report is an indictment how some sectarian groups
belonging to Punjab operate with abandon in Balochistan and affect the Pakistan-Iran
region.
 These groups are in hibernation in Punjab but continue operating elsewhere. By
KulbashanYadez’s and Ehsanullah Ehsan’s own admissions, they enjoy Indian patronage and
funding. Recently more than 13 Indians died in Eastern Afghanistan due to a US MOAB
attack.
 Though Indian media branded them as ISIS recruits, intelligence information suggests they
were RAW trainers whose patrons AjitDoval and Prime Minster Modi have sworn to smite
Pakistan. It is no wonder that same elements were used against Pakistan to kick start a new
wave of Pakistan-Iran acrimony.

China
 By virtue of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC), China and Pakistan are moving
closer to one other.
 China-Pakistan economic ties have been consistently growing over the past two decades and
they will continue to grow in the future at a faster pace. There is hardly a sector of Pakistan’s
economy where China has not invested.”
 He added that both countries signed a free trade agreement in 2006 to increase bilateral
trade to $15 billion per year by 2015. Although the trade target has not been achieved,
bilateral trade is expected to rise once the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is complete,
said Fazl-e-Haider.
  According to Pande, Pakistan still sees China as its friend or ally of last resort, a country that
will provide the assistance or investment to build Pakistan’s economy and the nuclear
weapons capability to defend Pakistan. For now, Pakistan still looks to the greater Muslim
world, especially countries like Saudi Arabia, for support, both diplomatic as well as
economic, she said.
 China has a deep military relationship with Pakistan, especially in the nuclear arena. China
has also promised $46 billion in investment under CPEC. These show the strength of the
relationship, especially if the entire money promised flows into Pakistan, but that will takes
decades and we have to wait and watch. There are challenges faced by the relationship
especially with respect to radical Islam and China’s fears of radicalization amongst the
Uyghurs in Xinjiang.”
 Pakistan is China’s strategic partner. The country is the China’s key energy link that enables
China to cut the time and distance for its oil transport from the Gulf. China plans to build a
gas pipeline from Iran to China through Pakistan, transfer LPG from Middle East by using
railway carriages and set up a major oil refinery at Gwadar.”
 The analyst further observed that India, as a competitor of China in both the global energy
game and regional hegemony, is worried about China’s strategic goals for the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor project. These appear to be energy security, the policing of the energy
pipelines, oil trade, and strategic dominance of the Indian Ocean.
 Husain Haqqani, a noted Pakistan author and former Pakistan’s ambassador to America, said
in an interviewwith Newsline Magazine: “We have always had this mythical notion that a
superpower ally will come from outside, solve all our problems, improve our economy and
build our military so we can stand up to India. First we looked to the U.S., but they did not
do what we expected them to do. Then we turned to China and we have consistently
believed China will solve all our problems.”
 He went on: “China has often promised large amounts of investment in countries but rarely
has all that investment actually flowed through. For example, despite announcing plans for
more than $24 billion in investment in Indonesia since 2005, a decade later China has
invested only $1.8 billion there.”
 Still, as ties between China and Pakistan become increasingly warm, Pakistan is moving away
from Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan is today seen as paying little
heed to Saudi Arabia in particular, a stark contrast to earlier times. With China on its side,
Pakistan played the role of a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when
tensions were rife between them
 Foreign direct investment (FDI) amounted to more than $2 billion in July-May, up 22.6 per
cent from a year ago, reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.
 The improvement in FDI during the last couple of years was because of increased inflows
from China.

Iran
 However, there is a rivalry between Pakistan and Iran, too. India’s relations with Iran are
improving, to Islamabad’s chagrin.
 “Gwadar will emerge as a competitor to the port of Chabahar in southeast Iran.
 The port is being developed by India to open up a route to landlocked Afghanistan where it
has increased its economic and diplomatic presence.
 India is actually making efforts to circumvent Pakistan, its arch rival through Chabahar port,”
said Fazl-e-Haider.
  When Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited Pakistan following the lifting of the nuclear
related sanctions, an Iranian angle to the arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav also revealed that that
all is not well in the bilateral relationship. Soon, the Iranian embassy noted that the media
reports on the matters were based on “undignified and insulting content.”
 On the other hand, at a press conference military spokesman Lt Gen AsimBajwa said he
could not say with certainty, or even knew, if the Iranian government or its intelligence was
aware of RAW carrying out its intelligence operation from its soil. He went on to say that
Iran had assured its cooperation in this regard.
 Iranian drone downed by Pakistan army in balochistan soil, COAS IRAN blamed: pak is
involved in giving sanctuary to terrorists…

India
 According to some Islamabad-based journalists, since Narendra Modi came to power, he has
adopted a tough approach toward Pakistan. They cite several reasons why the Indian prime
minister is trying hard to isolate Pakistan regionally and internationally.
 First, Narendra Modi is building closer ties with the Arab states, evident in his recent visits.
 Second, following the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the Modi government is showing
significant interest in Iran.
 Third, as ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to fray, Modi is trying to
erode Pakistan’s image further in Afghanistan, and they are also trying to increase the
“Indian influence” in Afghanistan.
 Fourth, as China and Pakistan enjoy positive relations, the Modi government is trying to
build ties with America, while lobbying against Pakistan in America and in the West.
 Fifth, when the horrendous July 1 attack took place in Dhaka, Islamabad-based analysts
noted that the Indian media tried to put the blame on Pakistan.

INDIA –ISRAEL NEXUS:

 Israel has hailed India as a strategic partner in Asia, while China as merely a trading partner.
With Modi entrenched in power, and strategic interests aligned, we are poised to see India
and Israel expand on their already-strong relationship.
 Three Indian Naval ships reached Israel today for joint activities with the Israeli Navy ahead
of Modi’s visit in July
 India & Israel established diplomatic relations in 1992 – this was the time when India moved
from the Soviet camp to the US Camp. Pres. Pranab Mukherjee visited Israel in 2015, Ariel
Sharon visited New Delhi in 2003 & Pres. Reuven Rivlin visited India in 2016
 India has always shyer away from publicly demonstrating close ties with Israel due to its
large Muslim Population
 Yet India is largest buyer of Israeli military equipment & Military and strategic ties between
the two nations extend to intelligence sharing on terrorist groups and joint military training.
Analysts speculate that Israel shares it counter-terrorism expertise, well-tried on the
Palestinians, with India, which in turn India applies in Occupied Kashmir – hence the
similarities in the oppression of the two people
  The India/Israel nexus is not new. Israel provided military assistance to India in its wars in
1962, 1965 & 1971 & was the first to recognize Bangladesh following India’s victory in 1971.
In 1971, Golda Meir, Israel's PM, offered Indira Gandhi Israeli arms and instructors in
exchange of full diplomatic relations. Israel also funneled aid to the MuktiBahini
 It is also known in intelligence circles that Mossad and Raw collaborate in their acts in
Afghanistan, which profusely extend into the soil of Pakistan
 India will buy nearly $2 billion worth of weapons technology from Israel in what's being
described as the “largest defence contract” ever signed by the military exporting giant.
 The deal will see state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries provide India with an advanced
defence system of medium-range surface-to-air missiles, launchers and communications
technology, the company said in a statement Thursday.
 The “mega” missile agreement is “considered to be the largest defense contract in Israel's
defense industries' history”, the company said.
 The Israeli firm will also supply a naval defence system including long-range surface-to-air
missiles for India's first aircraft carrier, which is still under construction.
 India ─ the world's largest defence importer ─ has been investing tens of billions in updating
its Soviet-era military hardware to counter long-standing tensions with regional rivals China
and Pakistan.
 India has signed several big-ticket defence deals since Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party stormed
to power in 2014.
 Israel is a top weapons exporter, with sales last year surging to $6.5 billion.
 India is a top market for its arms, as New Delhi has turned increasingly away from traditional
ally Russia for its military hardware.
 Last year India signed a contract to buy 36 Rafale twin-engine fighter jets from France for 7.9
billion euros ($8.8 billion) after major delays and obstacles over the cost and assembly of the
planes in India.

INDIA-IRAN-AFGHANISTAN NEXUS:

 Though we have been facing difficulties and suffering for a long time, at the hands of all
these three countries, especially India and Afghan NDS, but it was
never perceived as nexus in this form. The capture of Indian naval officer Yadev, along with a
huge spy network carrying out subversive activities in Balochistan and Karachi, indicated
some Indo-Iran nexus.
 Later capture of some Afghan spies in Balochistan further exposed Indo-
Afghan collaboration. Droning of Mullah Mansoor further brought such facts into the
limelight, which strengthened hypothesis regarding Indo-Afghan-Iran nexus.
 Capture of ehsanullahehsan , close man to mullah fazullah,
 To cap it all, announcement of CPEC brought India yet again in open confrontation with Pak,
with US expressing her concerns rather covertly.
 Iran embarked in a competitive mode and India immediately fell in line to provide Iran with
all out support to develop ChahBahar and rail links etc. Afghanistan’s attitude towards CPEC
heavily
  the growing Indo-Iran-Afghan nexus is likely to be a very huge impediment in the way of
improving ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s bilateral ties with Iran, India
and Afghanistan have time and again experienced difficulties; therefore it is pertinent to
note that any alliance between the three countries is likely to be viewed by Pakistan with
some degree of cautiousness, and, is likely to have repercussions in the future.
 Pakistan’s bilateral difficulties with Afghanistan stem from a number of issues like the
current border issue, the traditional enmity revolving around subversive activities by non-
state actors and the resultant blame game, which have all marred relations between the
neighbourly countries. Similarly, Pakistan has not enjoyed very cordial relations with Iran and
both countries have often borne difficulties, and irritants continue to bedevil their relations.
Although, Iran and Pakistan have both signed numerous MoUs for energy, economic,
military and cultural cooperation since the 1980s, but very few have seen the light of the
day. However, irritants continue to ruin their relations.
 The development of Chabahar Port and the connecting transport-and-trade corridor has
the potential to unlock the untapped energy and mineral riches of Iran, Afghanistan, and
Central Asia for export toward India. The primary impact of this deal is on Pakistan. India,
Iran, and Afghanistan constitute over 95 per cent of Pakistan’s territorial borders. A deal of
such scale among Pakistan’s bordering states, aimed at excluding Pakistan, is a huge effort to
isolate the country.
 This is likely to result in excluding Pakistan from the advantage that it has enjoyed due to its
strategic location. Mainly, the envisioned trade corridor is likely to usurp all the economic
fruits that appropriately belong to Pakistan as the likely transit route between India,
Afghanistan, and Central Asia. This influence over Afghanistan, built due to Pakistan’s
monopoly on land routes to Afghanistan, is likely to diminish. Connectivity introduces new
players to the game: India and Iran. Afghanistan is likely to secure a second sustenance, one
with economic advantages. This growing Indo-Iran-Afghan nexus has the potential of
creating new challenges for Pakistan, which if not adequately addressed can lead to
Pakistan’s likely economic isolation.


Afghanistan

 When Afghan President Ashraf Ghani took office, he showed considerable leniency towards
Pakistan, over the opposition of most of his cabinet ministers. Ghani made a number of
positive overtures with both the civilian and military leaderships of Pakistan, all in vain.
 Following the announcement of the demise of Mullah Mohammed Omar in Karachi,
Afghanistan witnessed a rise in terror attacks.
 Again, Pakistan was accused of providing safe sanctuary to the militants who were carrying
out attacks inside Afghan territory, a charge Pakistan has denied.
 Ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan further soured when Mullah Akhtar Mansour was
killed on Pakistani soil.
  Islamabad-based analysts view relations with Afghanistan as unlikely to improve, because,
they argue, U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan is winding down.
 The U.S. is less concerned about Pakistan now, they say.
 On the other hand, Pakistan has been accused by the U.S. of providing sanctuaries to
Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban, which have been carrying out attacks inside
Afghanistan.
 The growing interest of regional actors such as China, Russia and Iran in addressing
Afghanistan’s conflict, alongside the Trump administration’s lack of a clear Afghan strategy,
is a key driver. China in recent years has been more hands-on as it seeks both to promote its
regional economic interests and to prevent the spillover of Uighur militancy.

AFGHANISTAN AND RUSSIA:

 IT is easy to think history is repeating itself in Afghanistan: the Russians are exerting their
influence, GulbuddinHekmatyar is back in Kabul, the Afghan Taliban are gaining in strength.
But history repeats itself as farce, and there is nothing comedic about the mounting
challenges in Afghanistan.
 Russia’s rapid return to the Afghan context was little anticipated, but may yet end the status
quo. Moscow’s involvement is driven by a broader strategy to assert its influence in the
Middle East and Central Asia and limit US power and presence at its back door.
 It also seeks to check the Afghan drug trade and the rise of the militant Islamic State group,
which could subsequently spread to Central Asia.
 Russia supports political reconciliation between the Kabul and Taliban, and its interest in
being a key power broker is evident in the trilateral talks held in December and the
upcoming six-nation talks, the first opportunity for Pakistan and India to be at the same
table for discussions on Afghanistan.

RUSSIA AND CHINA ROLE AS A MEDIATOR:

 The growing role of China and Russia will help stakeholders move beyond the sour legacy of
US involvement in peace talks.
 The actors taking centre stage are united by a common cause — to prevent IS from
establishing a foothold in the region.
 They are also, with the exception of India, in favour of political reconciliation. Moreover, the
web of regional ties means that the strength of certain alliances can help offset the acrimony
of other bilateral relationships:
 China can facilitate cooperation between Islamabad and Kabul; Russia can initiate
discussions between Islamabad and Delhi.

COMMANDER NICHOLSON AND PAKISTAN:

In other ways, Pakistan has failed to keep pace with the evolving dynamics. There was something
depressingly familiar about the testimony last week of Gen John Nicholson, commander of US forces
in Afghanistan, before a US Armed Services Committee hearing. Nicholson reiterated that Pakistan is
the source of the US stalemate in Afghanistan owing to its continued support for the Afghan Taliban
and Haqqani Network; he argued that the insurgents would have no incentive to engage in dialogue
as long as they enjoyed sanctuaries in Pakistan.
PAKISTAN SCHOLARSHIPS TO AFGHANISTAN:

 The civilian government must play a greater role in generating goodwill for Pakistan among a
new generation of Afghans.
 Last week’s announcement of 3,000 government scholarships for Afghan students was a
step in the right direction.
 A rethink of the Afghan refugee repatriation initiative is also needed. With a more holistic
strategy in place, Pakistan can both spur and benefit from nascent prospects for Afghan
stability.

CPEC SECURITY SSD , ARMY:

 The military had announced the raising of the SSD soon after President Xi Jinping’s visit to
Islamabad in 2015 for the groundbreaking of CPEC projects.
 The SSD consists of nine army battalions (9,229 personnel) and six civil armed forces wings
(4,502 personnel), which have been raised at a cost of over Rs5 billion.
 The Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms has allocated one per cent of the total
cost of CPEC projects for the running expenditure of the SSD to provide security for the
corridor, project sites and Chinese nationals in the country.
 The interior ministry finalised the SSD’s terms of reference (TOR) in January and sent them
to provinces. The force will be deployed in accordance with Articles 147 and 245 of the
Constitution and under the Anti-Terrorism Act 1997.
 Related to the terrorism issue is the matter of security for projects related to the China-
Pakistan economic corridor, or CPEC, a key development project worth billions to Pakistan.
 Projects in southwestern Balochistan province have been targeted by terrorists. Last month,
suicide bombers killed more than 60 people and injured 110 more.(2016)

CYBER SECURITY:

 the new battlefield of cyberspace involves instruments and tactics more detrimental to
national interests than traditional warfare posing a huge threat across the globe.
 Primarily, cyberspace has become a critical area of concern for its virtual and undetectable
nature as it follows no geographical boundaries or limitations.
 However, the concept of cybersecurity and its mechanisms to regulate the cyber space have
become an important feature of national security these days as government; military,
corporate, financial, and medical organizations collect, process, and store unprecedented
amount of data on computers and other devices.
 It is predicted that global annual cybercrime costs will grow from $3 trillion in
2015 to $6 trillion annually by 2021. However, reports suggest that the world-
wide cybersecurity market have already topped with $75 billion spendings in the
 year 2015. And it is further estimated that these security spendings will soar upto
$101 billion in 2018, and hit $170 billion by 2020.
 In the very specific case of Pakistan, the efforts for a unified cybersecurity policy
or strategy are underway. However, there are certain impeding factors halting the
overall process such as level of awareness and knowledge regarding malicious
happenings in cyberspace, lack of cyber-readiness and proportion of national
spendings in the field.
 In way to formulate a consolidated cyber security strategy, Pakistan must first
consider cybersecurity as very integral part of national security. It must further be
based on the very principle of proportionality while taking into account the
existing and potential risks and resources. Cyber security must be ensured in a
coordinated manner through cooperation between the public, private and other
sectors, taking into account the inter-connectedness and interdependence of
existing infrastructure and services in cyberspace.
Other Relations

What about Pakistan’s other key relations?

 In recent times, Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused to visit Pakistan, with no clear
reasons given.According to some foreign policy experts, although India is tilting towards the
West and America, Russia still remains one of its top defense suppliers. It does not wish to
anger India over Pakistan.
 Pakistan’s ties with America are also strained. Sartaj Aziz, a foreign affairs advisor to Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif, has admitted that relations with the U.S. have been under stress over
the past three months because of conditions Washington attached to the funding of the F-
16 sale.
 Also, with fraying U.S.-Pakistan ties, Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have also gone
from bad to worse, to that point that the two countries were involved in conflicts on the
Torkham border, killing four soldiers and wounding 40 others.
 As far as Bangladesh is concerned, Pakistan and Bangladesh have maintained mutual
paranoia and anger since 1971 In the past few years, Bangladesh has prosecuting those
accused of carrying out war crimes in support of Pakistani security forces in 1971, when
Bangladesh was part of Pakistan.
 Following the executions of BNP leader SalauddinQuader Chowdhury and Jamaat-e-Islami’s
secretary general Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujaheed for war crimes, bilateral ties soured, with
the two countries withdrawing their diplomats. This situation shows no sign of improving.

Main Threat

 Pakistan’s leaders have always seen India as the main threat (the so-called ‘existential
threat’) and Pakistan’s ties with every country are derived from how it views India.
 Since India is perceived as a threat, it is important that Afghanistan, the other neighbor, be
Pakistan’s friend.
 Hence, Pakistan has always sought a pro-Pakistan anti-Indian Afghan government, whether
it be the mujahideen or the Taliban.”
 United States was “seen as the superpower ally who would build Pakistan’s resources –
economic and military – to stand up to India. When the U.S. appeared reluctant to do this,
 China was seen as – and is still seen by many Pakistanis – as that mythical ally who will
sweep in, build Pakistan and help Pakistan be India’s equal. Pakistan’s leaders have always
 viewed the countries in the Muslim world, especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab
countries, as ideological allies in the fight with India.”
 Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, an independent political and defense analyst, noted that Pakistan
needs smart diplomacy to deal with India, Iran and Afghanistan as well as to cope with the
current trouble in its relations with the U.S. Smart diplomacy seeks to find alternative ways
to deal with a situation when one option does not offer a credible path forward. You do not
wait for the situation to change on its own; you invoke different diplomatic options to create
space for yourself.

NON-TRADITIONAL THREATS TO PAKISTAN

The Concept

The parlance ‘non-traditional security’ is a contemporary buzzword and its usage is on the rise
amongst the practitioners of statecraft, strategy and politics. However, as a concept, it still lacks a
precise and commonly accepted or, say, an authoritative definition.

The sphere of traditional security concerns is quite precise; whereas no similar concurrence exists in
the context of non-traditional security.

According to MelyCaballeroAnthony, non-traditional security threats may be defined as:

“Challenges to the survival and well-being of peoples and states that arise primarily out of non-
military sources, such as climate change, cross-border environmental degradation and resource
depletion, infectious diseases, natural disasters, irregular migration, food shortages, people
smuggling, drug trafficking, and other forms of transnational crime.”2

NTS Challenges to Pakistan

A wholesome assortment of NTS challenges confront Pakistan. These could emanate from:
extremism;

1. economy;
2. energy crisis;
3. demographic challenges;
4. governance issues;
5. human security;
6. border security;
7. refugees and
8. illegal emigrants;
9. trans-border/ trans-national crimes;
10. food security,
11. climate change;
12. fragile political system;
 13. foreign policy dilemmas,
14. foreign influences;
15. institutional wrangling, etc.

 In an interesting way most of these sub-systems are intricately interrelated. Moreover, most
of these operate simultaneously, hence accentuating the cumulative effects much more
than the linear sum total.
 Of these, some also make interesting subsets, like economy, energy and demographic
challenges; posing a chicken and egg dilemma as to which one causes the others.
 Aside from being non-military in nature, these challenges share other common
characteristics; most of these are trans-national in approach (neither purely domestic nor
purely interstate); some of them arise at very short notice and are transmitted rapidly.
 Most of these cannot be prevented entirely but their impact can be mitigated through
systemic approach. At times national solutions are inadequate and thus regional and
multilateral cooperation and participation is essential.
 The object of security is not just the state in terms of sovereignty or territorial integrity, but
also the security of the people in terms of survival, well being and dignity, both at individual
and societal levels.

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

 Pakistan today is confronted with some serious climate change threats due to global
warming, changes in the ocean current patterns, delayed monsoons, floods, heat waves, and
lately, droughts.
 The impact of these factors on human security – especially food security – makes climate
change one of the most potent threats to our national security.
 With one of the most rapidly increasing populations in the world, India and Pakistan are
making heavy demands on the already dwindling fresh water resources in the Subcontinent.
 The possibilities of water wars as a result of the upper riparian’s (India) water heist presents
a frightening scenario for one of the most heavily nuclear armed regions of the world.
 It is time both countries took stock of their real threats and stopped tilting at the windmills
of self-manufactured political threats. Together, India and Pakistan need to tame the
demons which are challenging the very survival of the human race in South Asia due to
global warming and its deleterious weather effects.

Let us take stock of the threats of climate change confronting us and our current response.
Pakistan is confronted with threats such as flash floods, glacial lakes outbursts and famines –
especially in Thar and Balochistan.

 Droughts, freakish rainfall, heat waves, and rising sea levels are also prevalent in the
country. These natural phenomena are being facilitated by man-made assaults on the
environment.
 Massive deforestation and mangrove destruction is causing soil erosion, landslides, the
silting up of water reservoirs, and the destruction of the coastal ecosystem.
 Our mangrove forest cover – the first line of defence against sea intrusion – was 400,000
hectares in 1945 and has shrunk to 70,000 hectares, exposing our coast to sea intrusion and
soil erosion.
  Port Qasim’s coal-based energy projects have displaced a sizeable segment of our coastal
population and destroyed valuable mangroves, rendering our coast more vulnerable to
floods and tsunamis.

An IMF study shows that Pakistan as the third most water-stressed country in the world with a per
capita water availability of 1,017 cubic metres.

 At the time of independence, Pakistan’s per capita water availability was around 5,600 cubic
metres, which put us in the category of water-abundant countries. From being water-
abundant to water-stressed, it has been a sorry saga of neglect and myopia for Pakistan.
 After Tarbela, our failure to construct any big reservoir has resulted in the present water
scarcity. According to the World Resources Institute, Pakistan has the lowest water
withdrawal to supply ratio – 80 percent among South Asian countries, including Afghanistan
and Bangladesh. India, with which
 we compete in all spheres, has 33 percent of its water supply stored in reservoirs while we
have only managed to store a paltry nine percent. With some 36 million acre-feet (MAF)
water lost to the sea annually, Pakistan – based on population projections – will find itself in
a deficit of 151 MAF by the year 2025.

• Climate change will continue to negatively affect human activities and livelihoods in Pakistan
through increasingly frequent extreme weather events and changes in temperature and
precipitation. With the “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (IPCC) conservatively
projecting the average world surface temperature to increase from 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the course of
the 21st century53, it is evident that alterations in the planet’s ecological, biological, and geological
system will not only continue but also intensify. In Pakistan, low-probability and high-impact events
such as floods, droughts, storms, and cyclones are now increasing in frequency. An analysis of data
for the past 60 years, taken from the “Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters” (CRED),
shows that the number of natural disasters per decade has increased considerably over the last two
decades.

• Growth in agricultural productivity has broadly kept pace with accelerating demand. However,
medium-term food security challenges will become far more daunting if immediate attention is not
paid to managing water resources, both underground and in the Indus basin river system.

• Water security is the most serious challenge for Pakistan due to several factors, particularly the
increasing pressure of population and urbanization, massive expansion of tube-well irrigation,
reduced levels of precipitation caused by climate change, and the accelerated retreat of Himalayan
glaciers.

Climate change: since last two decades the uneven change in climate and its impacts on human life
in pakistan are quite evident. unlike to its other south asianneighbors, pakistan is predominantly
vulnerable to climate change and because its economy is largely agrarian and highly climate
sensitive. the climate change is negatively affecting human activities and livelihoods in pakistan
through increasingly frequent extreme weather events and changes in temperature and
precipitation.

climate change triggering torrential rains and floods in pakistan.

a rise in extreme weather has already led to an alarming increase in the number of people died,
injured, or made homeless due to severe heat wave; floods caused by heavy and unexpected
rainfalls; drought in desert areas resulted in deaths and population flight to the urban areas; scarcity
of valuable resources including water and food crops and livestock, etc. the effects of climate change
can be even more dangerous as pakistan is known for its speedy increase in population which could
well increase the number of climate affectless as well as enhancing the challenges caused by it.

Population explosion:

 the rapid and consistent increase in population is south asian states’ common problem.
inpakistan, despite numerous relevant initiatives taken by different governments, the goal
for population control can never become a success story.
 pakistan’s large population and high growth rate are adversely affecting all aspects of
society, the economy and the environment.
 population growth creates and exacerbates vulnerabilities by endangering basic civic
amenities, leading to a lack of clean water and space for housing and ultimately burdening
society.
 remarkably, while much of the world has seen a reduction in fertility rates and population
growth, pakistan’s growth rate has increased. between 1991 and 2001, pakistan grew 25
percent, a rate that increased by more than one-third (to 34 percent) between 2001 and
2011 (

Pakistan’s total fertility rate

 the number of live births the average woman has in her lifetime) is reported by the un to be
3.2.
 this is well above india’s rate of 2.6 and far above the bangladesh rate of 2.2 (which is only
barely above the generally accepted replacement rate of 2.1).
 pakistan’s fertility rate is the highest of any of the largest countries and one of the highest in
the world outside sub-saharanafrica.
 with a 350% growth in population since its independence in 1947, it is estimated that the
pakistani population is due to be the second largest population growth after china, with a
contribution of 133 million people by 2025.
 such rapid population growth results in the endangering of basic services and amenities,
which then lead the lack of clean water and proper housing.
 here, as with many other developing countries, growth happens to individuals in society
who live below the poverty line, survive in a subsistence economy and live in hazard-prone
areas.

Water scarcity: water security is the most serious challenge to pakistan due to several factors,
particularly the increasing pressure of population and urbanization, massive expansion of tube well
irrigation, reduced levels of precipitation caused by climate change and the accelerated retreat of
himalayan

Glaciers:

 nothern parts of pakistan quite vulnerable by melting

 over three decades , the intensity of both glacier melt and occurance of earth quake has
been increases.
 chitral: during 2015-16 , adjoining glaciated areas faced over five devasting earthquakes
 home of 542 glaciers with an estimated colume of nealy 296 cubic kilometres and alone can
count 9 pc of total glaciers and ice reserves of pakistan
  according to expert of environmental, glaciology and hydrology all glaciers of pakistan will
melt by 2035
 it means removal of 296 billion tonnes of load from surface of earth crust in chitral alone.

Natural disasters:

 pakistan is also facing a serious threat and great challenges from large-scale natural as well
as anthropogenic disasters, such as, seismic events, landslides, droughts, floods, fog,
torrential rains, tropical cyclones, dust storms, fires, locusts, oil-spills, depletion of glaciers,
etc.
 the human impact of natural disasters in pakistan can be judged from the fact that 6,037
people were killed and 8,989,631 affected in the period between 1993 and 2002 (world
disasters report 2003, geneva).

Floods AND EARTHQUAKES:

 pakistan is one of the five south asian countries with the highest annual average number of
people physically exposed to floods, which occur normally due to storm systems that
originate from the bay of bengal during the monsoon from july to september.
 besides monsoon floods, the country faces many types of floods throughout the year
including flash floods in northern areas; floods due to canal breaches or river embankment;
urban floods in major cities of pakistan and coastal floods due to a tropical storm on the
coast of makran and sind’s coastal belt.
 Maurizio Giuliano, a spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) said: "This disaster is worse than the tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake
and the Haiti earthquake."
 The 2010 floods were the country’s worst in recorded history. They killed more than
2,000 people and affected 18 million – more than a tenth of the population.

EARTHQUAKES:

2005: 80,000 people died and 3.5 million people were rendered homeless. Magnitude was
7.6 or 7.8

DROUGHT HAS BECOME A PERIODIC PROBLEM OF THE COUNTRY’S SECURITY.

 in recent years drought is reported to have brought extensive damages to balochistan, sindh
and southern punjab where average rainfall is as low as 200-250 mm.
 severe drought periods in years 2000 , 2002, 2010 – 2014 affected livelihoods, resulted in
human deaths, pushed tens of thousands of people to migrate and killed large numbers of
cattle. this drought led to 120 deaths and affected 2,200,000 people.
  the main arid rangelands are thar, cholistan, dera ghazi khan, tharparkar, kohistan and
western balochistan. exceptbalochistan, all of these areas are within the range of monsoon
rainfall, which, however, is erratic and scattered. hence, 2 to 3 years in every 10 years in
these areas are drought years.

Due to topographical structure:

 most part of pakistan has high vulnerability towards the landslide. attabad lake (also gojal
lake) is a landslide dam lake in the hunza valley of northern pakistan created in january 2010.
 the lake was formed due to a massive landslide at attabad village in gilgit – baltistan on
january 4, 2010. the lake flooding displaced 6,000 people from upstream villages, stranded
(from land transportation routes) a further 25,000, and swamped over 12 miles (19 km) of
the karakoram highway.

Terrorism:

 at present, the gravest problem that pakistan is facing is terrorism. it has become a sour
tooth for federation and a nightmare for the people of pakistan. becoming a partner of the
us in the war against terrorism has made pakistan suffer a lot.
 the 9/11 was only one terrorist incident in the us territory but inside pakistan numbers of
such incidents have been observed, which deteriorated the law and order situation in the
country. no part of the country is safe due to bombing and suicide attacks of terrorism.
 pakistan’s troubled economic conditions, fluid political setting and perilous security
circumstances present serious challenges to its security. besides military security, the
problem of terrorism has branched out numerous issues which are equally serious.
 pakistan, as a nation has failed to share its soft image to the global community, it has to bear
much pressure from the world community and organizations to pursue a more direct policy
in order to curtail terrorism from the grass root levels.
 pakistan’s domestic trade and economic activity as well as foreign investment trend has
been widely declined due to the internal instability and frequent terrorist attacks from
different terrorist wings, both indigenous and infiltrated.
 no part of the country is safe due to bombing and suicide attacks of terrorism. feeling
insecurity from terrorism and the worst kind of law and order situation, the intelligentsia of
the country is moving in search of a better and safe future to western countries.

Talibanization promoted the culture of terrorism in pakistan that includes ambushes on armed
forces by tehrik-etalibanpakistan (ttp); targeted killing of religious, political and civil society figure;,
scholars and doctors; blowing up schools; offices of ngos; bridges; suicide attacks in mosques and
other important places. so far more than 50,000 pakistani have lost their lives in different incidents
of terrorism including 5,000 soldiers.

challenges to pakistan’s maritime security

 the challenges to pakistan’s maritime security in the indian ocean during the last decade
have led to different dimensions, which are significant from both national and international
perspectives.
 these challenges for maritime security fall under the aegis of both traditional and non-
traditional aspects.
  it is vital to understand that 95% of pakistan’s trade is through sea lines of communication
(sloc) and that the indian ocean also includes vital choke points such as the straits of
hormuz, the straits of malacca and the lombok and sunda straits that are important for
steady traffic flow of energy resources and other commodities.
 emerging concerns for pakistan are also arising from the operationalization of the gwadar
port which is close to straits of hormuz, where a major percentage of the world oil traffic
passes.

in addition, growing religious radicalization in the middle east and terrorism in south asia are a
matter of transnational concern towards maritime security for pakistan in the indian ocean region
from two perspectives.

 firstly, there is an external threat towards the possibility of militant factions or insurgents
attacking sea ports and vessels that can lead to floating bombs, stagnancy and collapse of
regional and international trade.
 secondly, through container shipments, insurgents can smuggle weapons, drugs and conduct
human trafficking operations to finance their activities and recruit new members. this
represents a vital threat to pakistan’s national interests and national security.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC THREATS:

Poverty:
Unemployment:
Lack of education facilities:

how to deal with non-traditional security threats?

 like any other developing country, pakistan too has its multifaceted issues which should be
dealt with an unfathomable concern, with an iron hand and with a team of competent
professionals.
 it is already too late to just appear on official seminars and conferences and spread a word
of concern about the non-traditional security threats which are inflicting damages on this
nation and on its overall existence.
 it is a high time for the government and all the authorities associated with the relevant fields
to take charge and own the responsibility for all the damages.
 so far, any noteworthy measure of improvement in any of these mentioned problems is not
discernible. there are legal frameworks, policies and agendas and working committees/
departments assigned to the each one but regretfully none of them has brought any fruit.
 if the government of pakistan and the military sincerely want to put off the tag of
‘incompetence and ill will’, they should work on a parallel agenda, and that is, to make
pakistan safe and secure for its people.
 this agenda should start with curbing the evil of corruption at any cost and from every level
with a top-down approach. the other essential steps that have to be taken to bring on a
difference are:
 good governance;
 making and implementing an extensive domestic policy (especially related to the human
development sector);
 discouraging and curtail terrorism and extremism with all other crimes by adopting a more
direct and effective strategy;
 efficient management and maintenance of resources and infrastructure;
 proper allocation and monitoring and accountability of funds to the departments.
 last but not the least, the government should educate the people so that they acquire better
employment opportunities.