Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pce

Mapping floods in the middle Zambezi Basin using earth observation and
hydrological modeling techniques
T. Nharo∗, H. Makurira, W. Gumindoga
University of Zimbabwe, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Box MP 167, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: The Lower Middle Zambezi catchment, on the Zimbabwean side, is vulnerable to floods almost every year. In this
Binary logistic regression work, the causes and impacts of floods in the Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin are investigated. An
Inundated areas algorithm based on the binary logistic regression is used together with MODIS NDVI images to determine the
MODIS spatial and temporal variation of flood inundation. The HEC-HMS model is used to simulate rainfall time series
NDVI
at daily time step. The quantified peak flow is given as an input to a mono-dimensional hydraulic model, HEC-
Geomorphic
Hydraulic model
RAS. Results from the mapped inundated areas for the period 2005 to 2015 showed that 16 January 2006 had
the highest flooded area of 1934 km2. Factors explaining causes of flooding were distance from surface water
bodies. The simulated flooded areas obtained are used to deepen our understanding of the contribution of
geomorphic features towards flooding as well as the extent of flooding. Results obtained contribute towards
defining new strategies for prompt flood risk management in the District.

1. Introduction
Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of floods is im-
portant for disaster risk management and water resources management.
Sustainable Development Goal number 13, Climate Action, supports the
need for disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, adaptation to
climate change and strengthened resilience (Gaffney et al., 2013).
The Zambezi and Chobe Rivers witnessed water level rises in 2010
which led to severe floods in the Caprivi region, while the Limpopo
Basin further south of the Zambezi Basin experienced devastating floods
with about 500 people killed and more than 2 million displaced
(Trambauer et al., 2014). The exposure of the SADC region to floods
cannot be downplayed as extreme flooding and cyclone events have
shown to be on the rise in the last few years (Bola et al., 2014).
The Mbire District in the Zambezi Basin is also flood prone
(Muhonda et al., 2014). The problem in mitigating these floods is as-
sociated with the fact that it is not known to what extent environmental
factors contribute to floods as well as lack of data to inform flood
mapping. Studies were conducted in the district with regards to these
natural and artificial floods. A study by Bola et al. (2014) sought to
understand the way communities in the Mbire District are impacted by
extreme weather events and how they cope with such events. The study
analysed rainfall variability and coping strategies. The results showed
that there has been an increase in flood events as well as frequency in
dry spells though the rainfall variability had not changed. Another
study by Gumindoga et al. (2016) estimated runoff from ungauged
catchments and reservoir operation in the Zambezi Basin. The study
included the main rivers Musengezi, Kadzi (Angwa) and Manyame that
flow through Mbire District into Cahora Bassa Dam, a reservoir
downstream of the Kariba Dam but upstream of the mouth of the
Zambezi to the Indian Ocean. The study estimated the runoff con-
tribution to the water balance of Cahora Bassa catchment and con-
cluded that operation of the Cahora Bassa Dam was important in re-
ducing flood events in the Mbire District using reservoir improved
water balance estimates. Besides the fact that reservoir operation is a
contributing factor towards flooding in the district, the current study
seeks to determine the spatial and temporal variation of flood in-
undated areas in the Mbire District using Remote Sensing Techniques
since the district experiences both artificial and natural flooding
(Gumindoga et al., 2016). Developments in Geographic Information
System (GIS) tools and advances in Remote Sensing technology have
improved the quick and fairly accurate assessments of flood events, real
time monitoring and early warning systems for flood events. The
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has vegeta-
tion indices calculated from its spectral bands which help in flood area
delineation and global flood hazard mapping (Dottori et al., 2016).
Stochastic models have been applied in studying the relationship be-
tween land use changes and flooding (Sanyal and Lu, 2005).

∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: nharotendai2@gmail.com (T. Nharo).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.06.002
Received 21 February 2019; Received in revised form 26 June 2019; Accepted 27 June 2019
1474-7065/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: T. Nharo, H. Makurira and W. Gumindoga, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.06.002
T. Nharo, et al.
In this study, three approaches were used: the binary logistic re-
gression involving regression analysis where the dependent variable is a
dummy variable (Coded 0, 1) (Gumindoga et al., 2011). Logistic re-
gression (LR) is a multivariate statistical analysis which has been used
in mapping natural hazards. It is a simple analysis and its processing
time is quicker compared to machine learning techniques. LR assesses
how individual factors influence on the flood creation as well as cor-
relating among conditioning factors (Shafapour Tehrany et al., 2017).
The regression analysis was introduced by Daniel (1974) and used to
measure the probability of disasters in an area using formula to gen-
erate conditioning factors. The technique can analyse the relationship
between binary dependent variables, with the scalar and nominal va-
lues as the conditioning factors (Shirzadi et al., 2012).
Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-
HMS), a conceptual semi distributed physically based model developed
for the rainfall runoff simulation processes with capabilities of model-
ling a wide range of geographic expanses including flood hydrology and
the 1D flow routing method HEC RAS were used. HEC RAS was chosen
due to its flexibility in computations. These approaches, laid the
groundwork for the present research that tackles the problem of iden-
tifying factors within Mbire District, and similar catchments, affecting
flooding as well as the extent of flood prone areas, areas where in-
undation is most likely going to happen. The aim of this study is to fully
understand all factors that contribute to the floods and better equip the
local authorities with tools that help them in their planning.
2. Study area and data
2.1. Description of study area
Mbire District in Zimbabwe is located between 30.60° and 31.20°
east and 15.60° and 16.40° south. The study area was selected because
it was an interesting study area for understanding community vulner-
ability to floods. The district has an estimated land area of 4700 km2 at
an average elevation of 550 m above mean sea level (Dube et al.,
2014a,b). The main rivers within the district are Musengezi, Manyame,
Kadzi, Angwa and Mwanzamutanda.
Mbire District (Fig. 1) lies in region IV which is one of the five
natural agro-ecological regions in Zimbabwe, characterised by low
rainfall of approximately 650 mm/year (Muhonda et al., 2014). The
rainfall season starts in October to March but due to climate variability
the seasons have changed with rains starting late November to early
December or late January up to late March (Gumindoga et al., 2016).
Mbire District lies on sedimentary geological foundations of lime and
sandstone formations.
With four main rivers from upstream flowing through and dis-
charging into Zambezi River and Cahora Bassa, the district frequently
experiences localised floods. One of the confirmed causes being back-
flows from Cahora Bassa (Gumindoga et al., 2016). These floods come
about especially when the high dam levels coincide with large inflows
from upstream contributions including the Manyame Catchment
(Gumindoga et al., 2016).
3. Materials and methods
3.1. Data acquisition and verification
This study used readily available MODIS Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI) flood images for mapping the areal extent of
water for flood events (inundation extent) in the district. The MODIS
spatial resolution of band 1 and band 2 is 250 m at nadir and a radiance
between 620 and 670 nm (visible red) and 841–876 nm (near infrared)
respectively, hence the suitability of these bands in flood water map-
ping. In addition, their moderate spatial resolution of 250 m was con-
sidered appropriate in this study for mapping the large area of the
district. Terra MODIS and Aqua MODIS view the entire Earth's surface
2
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
every 1–2 days hence all flood events can be tracked. A total of 39
MODIS NDVI flood images were downloaded from the MODIS Rapid
Response System via the Internet (NASA.GOV, 2010). These were ac-
quired between December and March for each season according to
evidence of seasons that experienced floods acquired from the Zim-
babwe National Water Authority (ZINWA) and Civil Protection Unit
(CPU). The hydrological seasons are 2005-2006, 2008-2009, 2013-
2014 and 2014-2015.
Landcover maps were developed from, cloud free Landsat 8 OLI and
TM images acquired from NASA free of charge from the online Landsat
archive via GloVis web link (http://glovis.usgs.gov/) for the hydro-
logical seasons. The images downloaded for each season were for
September of each year prior to floods. The digital elevation model
(DEM) for the study area was used to derive the slope, river network
and vertical channel height for the model. The DEM image was ob-
tained using the Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission (SRTM) output available
for 30 m resolution.
Daily rainfall data for the years 2004–2015 for the weather stations
Kanyemba, Rukomechi, Karoi, Mushumbi, Guruve, Mvurwi, Mt Darwin
and Muzarabani was collected from the Meteorological Office of
Zimbabwe. For representativeness in data, the weather stations used
fall within the valley. Daily streamflow data for the years 2004–2015
for the catchments, Angwa, Lower Manyame and Musengezi (Angwa,
Mapomha, and C109 respectively) were made available by ZINWA.
3.2. Flood inundated area analysis
Using the readily available NDVI MODIS images, MODIS look up
tables, water areas were selected as corresponding to: Red = 154,
Green 180–210, Blue < 200 reflectance values (NASA.GOV, 2010). The
area inundated by water was calculated in a GIS environment. A total of
68 Ground Control Points (GCPs) were used to validate the MODIS
derived flooded areas. GIS participatory mapping was used to collect
the validation data between the 24th and the 25th of December 2015 in
Chidodo, Mushumbi Pools, Chikafa and Masoka. In the Statistical
Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) analysis tests were carried out to
measure the agreement of the ground control points and the MODIS
derived flooded area.
3.3. Assessing factors affecting flood magnitude
The DEM (http://glovis.usgs.gov/) was used to calculate flow di-
rection, flow accumulation, network and catchment extraction. The
flow accumulation data was used in defining watershed boundaries and
stream networks (Hengel et al., 2007). Using the stream network map, a
distance computation was done assigning to each pixel the least dis-
tance to the closest stream. Slope was calculated as a percentage with
pixel size of 30 (Hengel et al., 2007).
Using QGIS, dams in and around the district were digitized and
georeferenced. The Integrated Land and Water Information (ILWIS) was
used to calculate Euclidian distances. Distance from rivers was also
calculated using the segment map of rivers obtained through DEM
Hydroprocessing. DEM terrain model was selected to compute the to-
pographic position index (TPI) (Equation (1)), using the same SRTM
DEM.
Tpi< scale factor > = int ((dem focalmean (dem, annulus, irad, orad)
) +5 (1)
where scalefactor = outer radius in map units.
Irad = inner radius of annular in cells
Orad = outer radius of annular in cells
The spatial analysis of the raw Landsat images was done in a GIS
environment. A sample set was created with six landcover classes
T. Nharo, et al.
Fig. 1. Mbire district in Zimbabwe.
namely, deciduous forest, bareland, water and marsh, floodplain and
irrigation, shrubland and grassland. These six classes were picked based
on background understanding of the area under study. Supervised
classification was used to classify the images assuming that spectral
values of training pixels are statistically distributed according to a
multivariate normal probability density function (Gumindoga et al.,
2014b). To validate the classification output, a total of 207 ground
control points (GCPs) were collected in the study area using the Global
Position System (GPS) according to the landcover classes. In SPSS,
Cohen’ Kappa was calculated to confirm the measure of agreement
between the ground control points and the classified output.
3.3.1. Generation of water and non-water random points
In a GIS environment, and for each flood day, a total of 50 random
points representing flooded areas and 50 random points representing
non-flood areas were extracted from the MODIS data in order to gen-
erate flood presence flood absence data. The flood presence and flood
absence data was needed as input for the binary logistic regression
where ‘1’ represented water pixels and ‘0’ represented non-water pixels
(Shafapour Tehrany et al., 2017). The multivariate LR analysis was
carried out in SPSS software. The higher the value of a logistic coeffi-
cient the greater is the impact on the occurrence of flooding (Ayalew
and Yamagishi, 2005).
The function (Equation (2)) in ILWIS was used to retrieve vertical
channel height and other environmental variables including slope, the
Topographic Position Index (TPI), landcover, soil type, distance from
dams and distance from rivers that were deemed as important to ex-
plain the probability of flooding.
TPI = MapValue (TPI, Coordinate) (2)
3.3.2. Estimating probability of flooding
Multi-collinearity test was done on the environmental covariates in
SPSS to reduce redundancy in computations. Regression (Equation (3))
3
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
was carried out and significant (p < 0.05) factors and their days noted.
1
P=
1 + exp( 1 * (b0 + x1 × b1 + x2 × b2 + …. + xn × b n ))
(3)
where b = the environmental constant.
x the factor map multiplied by the significant value (p < 0.05) of the
factor
The spatial logistic function was applied to each derived variable
map for each flood day in a GIS environment. Continuous probability
maps indicating the probability of flood occurring were developed with
maximum likelihood having a probability of 1 and least likelihood of
flood occurrence having a probability of 0. The probability maps pro-
duced were reclassified into four flood hazard classes in accordance
with the spatio-temporal variation as well as knowledge of study area
(Gumindoga et al., 2014a). Histograms of the probability maps classes
were used to determine the value ranges of the four hazard classes that
are very low hazard, low hazard, high hazard and very high hazard.
3.4. Hydrologic modelling through HEC-HMS
3.4.1. Model parameterization
HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model was chosen for modelling the Mbire
District watershed runoff. The soil map was obtained from the
Harmonized World Soil Database Classification (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, 2006).
The parameters needed for the model, interception storage, surface
storage, infiltration rate, soil storage, tension zone storage and soil zone
percolation rate were estimated using land use, land cover and soil
information. Different parts in the catchment have different soil depths
and thus different capacity of holding water. The land use maps and the
hydrologic soil groups, the run off Curve Number (CN) map of the
watershed was prepared. Classification of each sub basin into land use,
T. Nharo, et al. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

land cover classes (water and marsh, floodplain and irrigation, shrub-
land, grass land, and deciduous forest) was carried out using satellite
imageries in ILWIS software. Data from historic events on stream flow
observations helped estimate the groundwater storage depths and sto-
rage coefficients. The soil percolation rate was based on the hydraulic
conductivity of the soil profile.
The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph was used as
the method for transforming excess precipitation into surface runoff. It
is based on a fixed dimensionless single peaked unit hydrograph. SCS
suggests that the unit hydrograph peak and time to peak is related by
the following formula:
A
Qp = C ×
Tp (4)

where A is the watershed area (km), C is a conversion constant 2.08 and

Tp is time to unit hydrograph peak and Qp is peak discharge (m3/s.cm).
Tp is also related to the duration of the unit of excess precipitation
as:
Tp = tr /2 + tlag (5)

where tr is the excess precipitation duration, tlag is the basin lag, the
difference between the centre of mass of rainfall excess and the peak of
the unit hydrograph.
The lag time was specified then Tp solved and peak discharge from
equation (4).
0.385
11.9L3
tc = 60
H (6)
where L is the length of the longest watercourse, H is the elevation
difference between divide and outlet. Tlag is thus determined by the
following formula:
tlag = 0.6 tc (7)
The Muskingum method, X and K parameters of channel routing was
used to generate discharge hydrograph at downstream point in channel.
The K parameter is estimated as the interval between similar points on
the inflow and outflow hydrographs and X parameter is a constant
coefficient with values from 0 to 0.5 (Flemming and Scharffenberg,
2013).
The Specified-release method for reservoirs was chosen because of
its usefulness during calibration of the model and for observing releases
from the reservoirs. For the storage, Elevation-Area-Outflow was se-
lected and the elevation-area curves for each reservoir so that the sto-
rage-volume relationship of the reservoir can be computed.
In processing the meteorological data, delineation of boundary of
the river basin was done using elevation contours extracted from SRTM
data. The study basin was divided into five subbasins (Musengezi,
Chewore Safari, Karoi, Lower Manyame and Mvurwi) in order to ac-
Fig. 2. Five study sub basins: Musengezi, Chewore Safari, Karoi, Lower
Manyame and Mvurwi.
bottom width, and shape and river length were obtained from the to-
pographic map. The output values were assessed to determine their
variation against the base output set and thus a measure of the sensi-
tivity. The model was calibrated for the identified sensitive parameters
to improve the agreement between the simulated and observed data.
Again, the automated calibration procedure in HEC-HMS uses an
iterative method to minimize an objective function, such as sum of the
absolute residuals, sum of the squared residuals, peak-weighted root
mean square error. The model evaluation adopted for this study in-
volved using the prediction of overall performance of the model was
assessed using Nash - Sutcliffe model efficiency (EFF) criterion (Nash
and Sutcliffe, 1970).
The EFF values can vary from 0 to 1, with 1 indicating a perfect fit
of the data. According to common practice, simulation results are
considered to be good for values of EFF greater than or equal to 0.75,
while for values of EFF between 0.75 and 0.36 the simulation results are
considered to be satisfactory (Motovilov et al., 1999).
The Nash-Sutcliffe Index (Equation (8)) was used to determine the
goodness of fit of the simulated to the observed values. Hence providing
an evaluation of the model's predictive abilities.
T
(Q0t Qmt) 2
t=1
E=1 T
(Q0t Qo)2 (8)
t=1

count for spatial variability of precipitation and runoff response char- where Qo = observed flow in m /s. 3

acteristics (Fig. 2).

The sub basins are gauged at their outlets thus allowing model ca- Qm = simulated flow in m3/s
libration and validation at interior nodes within the basin.
Average annual precipitation depths were interpolated using the Other statistical measures were evaluated at each of the gauged
Thiessen polygons (Fig. 3) to specify indices for storm gages for each stations to assess the performance of the model are the measure of the
subbasin. relative bias (RBIAS). The RBIAS (Equation (9)) compares the simulated
and the observed flows. Values close to zero show a very good model
3.4.2. Model performance assessment simulation though up to 10% are still acceptable (Moriasi et al., 2007).
In determining the important parameters which are needed to be 1 N Qm Q0
estimated for accurate prediction of basin yield, the sensitivity analysis RBIAS = 100
N i=1 Q0 (9)
of the model was performed. Following this, each input parameter was
3
varied while keeping the others constant within prescribed range and where Qm = simulated flow in m /s.
running the model. Parameters such as initial abstraction, lag time,
initial discharge, recession constant and ratio were determined through Qo = observed flow in m3/s
calibration process and adjusted until the observed hydrograph and
simulated hydrograph were close fit. Parameters such as the manning n,

4
T. Nharo, et al.
Fig. 3. Thiessen polygons for the storm gages.
3.5. Flood routing through HEC-RAS
The hydraulic model, HEC-RAS was used to outline the positions of
the waterway in places where bank overtopping is most likely to occur
after a certain threshold flood flow is exceeded. The model setup in
HEC-HMS was modified to cater for Lower Manyame Catchment only
because that is where the most significant floods occur as well as the
data available in Lower Manyame was sufficient for the model simu-
lations.
3.5.1. Model extent and DEM selection
The model geometry was developed displaying the areas significant
for the flood hazard analysis and selecting the topographic dataset for
the model development (Pappenberger et al., 2005). Since no previous
flood risk analysis for the region had been done, the model had to start
sufficiently upstream in order to deliver accurate results for Lower
Manyame. The total length of the modelled reaches between the up and
downstream end as well as the corresponding sub basins areas are
shown in Table 1.
3.5.2. HECRAS model parameterization and validation
Boundary conditions for steady-flow simulations were defined for
the beginning and end of the model. The normal depth of 0.001 was
used as the downstream boundary condition. Thus the water level at the
last cross section was calculated for a friction slope by using the
Manning's equation. The friction slope was not known and it was esti-
mated as the channel bed slope in the area of the last cross section. This
method involved high levels of uncertainty hence the last cross section
Table 1
Reach length and catchment areas.
Reach Length (m) Catchment Area (m2)
Upstream (Manyame) 35703 1144
Downstream(Manyame) 33375 852
Tributary (Ambi) 34309 1478
5
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
cutline was placed downstream of where the bottleneck of the channel
was expected.
The model is calibrated using the Manning's roughness coefficient
and data associated with the lower flowrate. The calibrated coefficients
are then used in the validation process using data associated with the
second, higher flowrate. The model was calibrated against the
Mannings roughness coefficient (n-value) using the measured water
surface elevation data from the low flow case. An n-value was first
estimated based on consultation with field observations, textbook
guidelines and Google Earth images.
Model validation provides an assessment of the model's ability to
accurately reproduce known results. This is performed by running the
model at the high flowrate with the calibrated n-values. The computed
water surface profile is compared to the measured profile and P and D
are determined.
The validation of the HEC-RAS flood inundated areas was further
done using 39 GCPs collected in the field using GIS participatory
mapping and GPS. This was done to confirm the flood areas mapped
using the MODIS NDVI images.
4. Results
4.1. Spatial and temporal variation of flood inundated areas
The statistical analysis was done on the MODIS flood image of
January 8, 2015 and the ground control points. The results gave a
substantial measure of agreement between the GCPs and the MODIS
derived flooded area. The Area Under Curve (AUC) results showed a
significant measure of agreement (p < 0.05) between the ground
points and MODIS flood evidence of 0.86.
Table 2 shows inundated areas captured for the seasons under study.
4.2. Factors affecting flood magnitude
Table 3 shows the occurrence of flooding and distance from water
bodies (dams and rivers) in and around Mbire District. Throughout, the
T. Nharo, et al. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

Table 2
Shows the different season against the days floods were mapped with the highest areas.
season Date Inundated area(km2) Place

2005–2006 16 January 1934 Chidodo, Musengezi, Muzeza, Mushumbi, parts Angwa

2008–2009 7 January 1225 Kanyemba
2013–2014 1 January 1158 Kanyemba, Angwa, Mushumbi, Chikafa and Chidodo
2014–2015 8 January 1895 Kanyemba, Hunyani, Chikafa

Table 3
Probability of flood occurrence.
Date Variables B Sig. Equation

22/12/05 Distance_dams 0.000099 0.040 P= exp( 16.519 + 0.000099*DD) /( 1+exp( 16.519 + 0.000099* DD) )

Constant −16.519 0.018

22/12/05 Distance_rivers 0.001 0.027 P= exp( 9.035 + 0.001* DR) /( 1+exp( 9.035 + 0.001* DR) )
Constant −9.035 0.023
02/01/09 Distance_rivers 0.001 0.013 P= exp( 16.597 + 0.001* DR) /( 1+exp( 16.597 + 0.001* DR) )
Constant −16.597 0.002

Fig. 4. Probability maps explained by distance from rivers.

Fig. 5. Flood hazard maps explained by distance from rivers.

Table 4
Average annual flows during calibration.
CATCHMENT(STATION) OUTFLOW (m3/year) OBSERVED (m3/year)

Musengezi (C109) 20.0 * 107 24.9 * 107

Lower Manyame(Mapomha) 18.5 * 107 18.4 * 107
Angwa (Angwa) 20.7 * 107 12.9 * 107

results show a significant relationship (p < 0.05) between distance

from water bodies and probability of occurrence of variation of
flooding.
The probability map of flooding with variation in distance from
rivers is shown in Fig. 4.
Fig. 5 shows the flood hazard maps developed as a function of
distance from rivers.
Fig. 6. Musengezi hydrograph in the calibration period.

6
T. Nharo, et al.
Fig. 7. Angwa hydrograph for calibration period.
Fig. 8. Lower Manyame hydrograph for calibration period.
Fig. 9. Musengezi model validation hydrograph.
Fig. 10. Angwa validation hydrograph.
7
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
4.3. HEC-HMS model calibration and validation
The model performance was done during calibration for the three
catchments, Musengezi (C109), Lower Manyame (Mapomha), Angwa
(Angwa). Table 4 shows the average annual outflows recorded against
observed flows at the three stations.
Fig. 6 shows the hydrograph for the calibration period for Mu-
sengezi Catchment. The Nash-Sutcliffe (EFF) coefficient for Musengezi
Catchment was 0.34. These results confirmed the capability of the
model to simulate the catchment response.
Fig. 6 shows that the model responds to hydrological events but
largely under-estimates the discharge. The sensitivity analysis of run off
lag time calculated using the SCS method indicated a high sensitivity of
this parameter in the range of 0–20% showing that the catchment
discharge is sensitive to smaller lag time values.
The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for Angwa Catchment was 0.63 the
hydrograph in Fig. 7. This is an acceptable statistic which confirms the
capability of the model to simulate the catchment response. Fig. 8
shows the model calibration for Lower Manyame whose RBIAS was
0.001%.
Validation for Musengezi Catchment had an improved EFF of 0.461
indicating a model performance that was acceptable (Fig. 9).
Validation results for Angwa Catchment (Fig. 10) a Nash-Sutcliffe
coefficient of 0.704 indicating an acceptable model performance.
4.4. HEC-RAS flood routing
Based on the hydrographs from the rainfall-runoff model, the results
show that inundation mapping based on the hydrographs should be
used with caution as the flood volumes may be significantly over-
estimated. This is an important factor as the extra fluvial process forced
by extreme hydrologic conditions requires 2D unsteady hydraulic
model applications whose results are significantly affected by the hy-
drograph shape and volume rather than just the flood peak (Grimaldi
et al., 2013).
Calibration on the modelled reaches began with Manning's values of
0.25 and 0.31 for the channel and banks respectively. The same n va-
lues were used throughout the reaches and the resulting optimisation
parameter P of 0.332m with an average difference, several iterations
were carried out and the optimisation parameter reduced significantly
to 0.073 m with calibrated n values of 0.03 and 0.04 for the channel
and banks respectively. Calibration reduced the error by a factor of
4.85.
Validation of data at a larger flowrate from the 2008-2009 flood
event of 7 January 2009 and the calibrated n values of 0.03 and 0.04.
Furthermore, ground control points were also collected and Cohen's
KAPPA, showed a significant measure of agreement (p < 0.05) of 0.77
between the 39 ground control points and the inundated areas simu-
lated by the HEC-RAS model. Table 5 shows details at two stations, RS
28702.51 and RS 25703.67 downstream of Manyame River. To note is
the flow area which is the lateral flow from the channel. The stations
were chosen as they represent the maximum areas for both the Left
overbank (OB) and Right OB. The average flow area is about 1 477 km2
and average width of 528 m for both overbanks for the 2008-2009 flood
event.
The 100 year return flood covers the largest area of 59.1 km2 and at
some representative stations the lateral flow covers almost 1 000 m. The
computed inundated areas for the return periods are shown in Table 6.
5. Discussion
In this study, we have investigated the causes and impacts of
flooding within the Mbire District in order to improve the current
practices to avert loses among communities during flooding times. The
Mbire is one of the most probe districts to flooding events. The first
analysis considered factors that contribute to flooding within the
T. Nharo, et al.
Table 5
Lateral flow width for RS 28702.51 and RS 25703.67.
Element Left OB RS 28702.51
2
Flow Area (m ) 1409.37 125.84
Area (m2) 1409.37 125.84
Top Width (m) 534.2 58.91
Table 6
Flood inundated areas in HEC-RAS.
2008-2009 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year
Season flood flood flood flood
Inundated Area 56.3 57.93 58.45 58.7 59.1
(km2)
district with a background knowledge that backflows from reservoir
operations upstream are a significant factor in flooding. The second
approach was now exploring the extent of inundation using readily
available data.
The probability of flooding is very high in and close to river net-
works in most places (more than 0.6). This can also be explained by a
study by Dube et al. (2014a,b) on the potential of weight of evidence
modelling for gully erosion hazard assessment in Mbire District where
environmental factors they used include stream power and distance
from river. These two factors were significantly correlated to gully
erosion meaning the channel beds could be decreasing in depth con-
tributing to flooding in areas within and close to rivers. Any develop-
ments in the district should not be close to the river network as these
areas are at risk of flooding. The HEC HMS model simulated fairly well
though some exaggeration of observed flows were seen and this was
explained by flash floods received in 2007-2008. Sensitivity analysis of
the parameters in HEC-HMS showed that the model outputs are more
sensitive to CN compared to initial loss and lag time in the range of
0–20. Underestimating of the CN value caused more error on prediction
of discharge compared to overestimation of initial loss and lag time.
The results show that the model was able to simulate the flood in-
undated areas well since more than 75% of the ground control points
fall within the HEC-RAS flooded area.
It is evident that the floodplain inundated areas increase with
magnitude of flow within river networks confirming the high flood
hazard level for settlements and activities near river networks in the
district.
A study in Iran's Halilrud basin, used HEC-RAS to map flood in-
undated area for a 1993 flood of magnitude of 3800 m3/s (Sarhadi
et al., 2012). The flood was declared a 1000 year return flood. In their
study, the area inundated was 73.15 km2 and a width of 496.6 m.
6. Conclusions
Based on the findings of this study the following conclusions can be
drawn:
i. The Mbire District is prone to repeated floods nearly every season.
Remote Sensing was used to calculate inundated areas of different
flood events. It can thus be concluded that remote sensing provides
a sound basis to analyse the flood extent areas required for opera-
tional use in planning flood related emergency responses.
ii. Using geostatistical modeling and the inundated areas, areas of
different flood hazard zones including flood safe areas in Mbire
District were established. The results show that distance from dam
and distance from rivers are stable parameters in understanding
what may cause flooding in the district. It is of importance to have a
study that assesses impact of erosion and sediment accumulation in
the rivers leading to increase in inundated areas near rivers.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Right OB Left OB RS 25703.67 Right OB
136.32 187.17 143.55 1545.44
136.32 187.17 143.55 1545.44
152.32 168.28 55.41 522.93
iii. The analysis have also found that HEC-HMS can be used to generate
missing data and estimate flood from rainfall data providing critical
information required by the HEC RAS model. Hence the derived
HEC-HMS model can be used as an effective tool to predict flood
levels and flowrates for design purposes.
iv. The flood hazard analysis using HEC-RAS confirmed that distance
from rivers helps explain flooding in the district. The 2008-2009
flood event covered an average width of 500 m on both banks and
the simulated 100-year return flood had an average width of
1000 m from the river channel. This shows that areas of settlements
and agricultural fields within a kilometre from the river networks
are exposed to a high level of flood related threat.
v. For a flood magnitude exceeding 50 m3/s, settlements within 200 m
will be affected. The artificial channel was found to mark the be-
ginning of the zones with highest hazard. Lateral outflow of flood
runoff in the area of Mushumbi, Chikafa and parts of Chidodo is
likely as also predicted by the binary logistic model. Hydraulic
modeling showed that 50 year and 100 year flood events will have a
devastating impact on the settlements in these areas.
7. Recommendations
In view of the conclusions made in the study, the following are
recommendations suggested for the Mbire District.
i. Development of a flood protection measure framework showing
practical solutions for the protection of the settlements and agri-
cultural fields against 100 year flood.
ii. Future studies in the area need to do an extensive soil analysis and
track soil composition changes due to flooding depositions as well
as consider climate change.
iii. If the flood hazard condition is controlled by sufficient drainage
infrastructure, a flood emergency management strategy would be
implemented for the settlements. The design should contain com-
munication strategies of the flood risk with the communities, a flash
flood warning system as well as an emergency evacuation plan. The
emergency strategy should clearly show the areas that are to be
evacuated when flooding is predicted as well as shelters in the
closer area that are not exposed to flood hazard.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Waternet/Ecohydro Project 2016 ,
Harare, Zimbabwe.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.06.002.
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