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STATISTICAL METHODS
FOR IMPROVING EFFICIENCY
Nomenclature
λ = mean arrival rate of units into system
L = length of waiting line for maintenance
µ = mean service rate
Component Parts
Assume a bank of compressors with the data given in table 5-1 accumulated for a certain
shaft bearing. The first step to planning a maintenance schedule is that of plotting the
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frequency of run-length occurrences. To do this. the data must be grouped into classes.
Examination of table 5-1 indicates a range of from 870 to 1140 hr, or 1140 – 879 = 270 hr.
Divide this into, say, 9 classes : 270/9 = 30 hr per class. Table 5-2 arranges the data from
table 5-1 into a frequency distribution. Figure 5-1 shows the data from table 5-2 plotted to
give a graph of the frequency distribution. Examination of figure 5-1 indicates that the
distribution is approximately normal. This will be the case with many component parts or
items with a small number of parts. The average or mean of the data shown in table 5-1 is
1000 hr. Both table 5-2 and figure 5-1 confirm this. The mean is, by definition, that point
above and below which 50 percent of the cases occur. Therefore, if it was decided to tolerate
half of the bearing failures at unforeseen or unplanned times, then the decision would be to
let all bearing run for 1000 hr, then take the compressors down for replacement.
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990 - 1020 10
1020 - 1050 8
1050 - 1080 3
1080 - 1110 2
1110 - 11 40 1
Σ ( x - x)2 1/2
σ =
n - 1
10
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The standard deviation for the data shown in table 5-1, without showing the computation, is
57.2 hr. Noting only the abscissa of figure 5-1, it can be seen that essentially no bearing will
fail before 874 hr. If zero percent will fail before 874 hr and 50 percent will fail at about 1000
hr, then 10 percent will fail somewhere in between, at say x hr.
A greatly abbreviated table of z-values is shown in Table 5-3. These values are the area
under one half (the right half) of the normal curve. Since the curve is symmetrical about the
mean ( z = 0 at the mean), a table of one half the curve suffices. From table 5-3, the z-
value corresponding to x in figure 5-2 is 1.28. Substituting in (z is negative because area
of interest is to left of the mean).
874 x 1000
x - x
-z =
σ
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x - 1000
- 1.28 =
57.2
x = 926.8
Therefore, by removing each unit from service at approximately 927 hr, on the average, 90
percent of the unscheduled failures will be averted.
Multicomponent Systems
Consider the foregoing problem from another point of view. Interest is now centered around
the failure of a compressor which is, in affect, a multi component system. The phenomenon
present here is that, even though the life of each individual component follows the normal
distribution, the increments of time between system failures usually follow a Poison
distribution. For the behavior analysis, an additional group of data is necessary. The second
distribution is that of the length of time required to repair each compressor. Care should be
exercised so that only repair time is recorded, not idle time plus repair time. Figure 5-3 and 5-
4 illustrate, respectively, these two distributions. Assume that the average in Figure 5-3 is 84
hr (3.5 days) and in figure 5-4, 30 hr (1.25 days). From these data there is much information
about the system which is available. Note that average is defined as that point which divides
the area under the curve in half, not the midpoint of the x- axis.
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20 40 60 80 100
λ 2
L =
µ (µ - λ )
where λ = mean arrival rate (units are in arrivals per time unit), in this case 1/3.5 or
Therefore :
(2/7)2
L = = 0.17 unit/days
4/5 (4/5 - 2/7)
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It is of interest to know the average length of time an idle compressor must wait until the
maintenance crew starts to work on it. This is expressed by :
λ
W =
µ (µ - λ )
2/7
= = 0.68 days
4/5 (4/5 - 2/7 )
Since this is probably excessive, quantitative justification for another maintenance crew is
now available. The expressions above for L and W are valid only if one crew is available.
Other formulas exist for two or more crews. Also, other formulas exist for cases where the
input distributions differ from those used in this example. It should be noted that the results
for L and W are average results over a period of time and seldom, if ever, will apply in
individuals situations. This is not altogether a disadvantage in that, if justification for another
crew is being attempted, the average or long-term utilization is the information being sought.
This discussion was not intended to present an exhaustive coverage of the subject. It was
intended to illustrate to the maintenance engineer some of the statistical and operation
research methods which are available to him to help in making decisions. These methods,
previously confined to the mathematical and statistical, have evolved to the stage where they
have become an engineer’s tool.
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