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Parte 1
TENDÊNCIAS DA
INTERNET 2019
Parte 1
Mary Meeker
11 de junho na Code 2019
Tradução: André Bartholomeu Fernandes | Hack
Tendências da Internet 2019
1) Usuários
2) E-Commerce + Propaganda
Parte 1 - Atual
3) Uso…
4) Modelos Freemium
5) Crescimento de Dados
6) …Uso
Parte 2
7) Trabalho
8) Educação
9) Imigração + USA Inc.
Parte 3 10) Saúde
11) China (por Hillhouse Capital)
2
Internet Trends
2019
Agradecimentos
Parceiros da Bond
Michael Brogan e Ansel Parikh ajudaram a orientar idéias e fizeram muito trabalho pesado. Noah
Knauf, Collin Ebert, Jesse Ellingworth, Everett Randle, Nancy Xiao, Daegwon Chae, Paul Vronsky e
Juliet de Baubigny também participaram e foram mais do que de disponíveis na ajuda.
Hillhouse Capital
A contribuição de Liang Wu e colegas da seção da China fornecendo uma visão geral do maior
mercado de usuários de Internet do mundo.
3
Internet Trends
2019
Contexto…
Usamos dados para contar histórias de tendências relacionadas aos negócios em que nos concentramos. Esperamos que os
outros aceitem as ideias, desenvolvam-nas e melhorem-nas.
Em 3,8B, o número de usuários da Internet compreende mais da metade da população mundial. Quando os mercados atingem
o fluxo principal, é mais difícil encontrar um novo crescimento, conforme evidenciado pelo declínio de novas entregas de
smartphones em 2018. Embora o E-Commerce continue a ganhar participação vs. varejo físico, as taxas de crescimento estão
desacelerando. Embora o crescimento da publicidade na Internet seja sólido e a inovação seja saudável, há áreas em que os
custos de aquisição de clientes podem estar subindo para níveis insustentáveis.
Embora o crescimento dos usuários de Internet esteja diminuindo, a inovação global e a concorrência continuam
impulsionando melhorias de produtos, novos tipos de uso e monetização - especialmente em áreas de vídeo digital, voz,
wearables, serviços locais e mercados tradicionalmente carentes. Fora dos EUA, nos concentramos em crescimento e
inovação especialmente elevados em serviços financeiros e de dados / atendimento direto a dados. Destacamos grandes
mudanças no uso global relacionadas à evolução de imagens e jogos interativos como ferramentas de comunicação e ao
amplo surgimento de empresas freemium em escala.
A rápida ascensão dos dados digitais coletados / analisados é muitas vezes essencial para o sucesso holístico das empresas
de maior crescimento e maior sucesso de nosso tempo em todo o mundo. Os dados ricos em contexto (context-rich data)
podem ajudar as empresas a fornecer aos consumidores produtos e serviços cada vez mais personalizados, que muitas vezes
podem ser obtidos a preços mais baixos e entregues com mais eficiência. Isso, por sua vez, pode aumentar a satisfação do
cliente. Melhores ferramentas baseadas em dados podem melhorar a capacidade dos consumidores de se comunicar direta e
indiretamente com empresas e reguladores.
Constituintes do núcleo (consumidores / empresas / reguladores) estão cada vez mais bebendo de um fluxo de dados e os
desafios de gerenciamento continuam a aumentar para todas as partes. A ampla conscientização dos desafios (e debates
vigorosos / quentes) pode ser o primeiro passo para impulsionar a mudança.
4
Internet Trends
2019
…Contexto
Os consumidores estão cientes das preocupações com a sobrecarga de uso da Internet e estão tomando medidas para reduzir
o uso - plataformas de Internet líderes nos EUA lançaram ferramentas para ajudar a monitorar o uso e o crescimento do uso de
mídia social parece estar desacelerando após um período de forte crescimento. Privacidade e problemas de conteúdo
problemático também são top of mind e seguem padrões semelhantes.
Devido à ampliação da mídia social, as revelações / ações / reações sobre eventos podem ocorrer rapidamente - resultando
em bons e maus resultados. Nos mercados em que existem sistemas de classificação em tempo real, a prestação de contas
pode ser melhorada em comparação com as opções off-line, pois os consumidores e as empresas interagem diretamente,
enquanto os reguladores também podem se beneficiar.
A conectividade em rápida expansão ajudou a ampliar as vozes de bons e maus atores. Isso trouxe novo foco para um antigo
desafio para os reguladores em todo o mundo - encontrar as formas mais eficazes de amplificar o bem e minimizar o mal,
muitas vezes resultando em diferentes interpretações e estratégias regionais.
À medida que os sistemas da Internet se tornam cada vez mais sofisticados, ricos em dados e de missão crítica, também surge
a oportunidade de ataques cibernéticos. Estamos em uma nova era de segurança cibernética, onde as questões tecnológicas
estão cada vez mais misturadas à diplomacia internacional e à defesa.
Nós nos concentramos no impacto da Internet no trabalho (via serviços sob demanda e opções remotas), educação e saúde -
a materialidade das tendências atuais implica que inflexões estão ocorrendo. Atualizamos as tendências dos EUA em torno das
finanças do governo e a importância da imigração para o setor de tecnologia.
A equipe Hillhouse Capital fornece insights sobre a China - o maior mercado de usuários da Internet e líder em inovação /
escala.
4
Internet Trends
2019
USUÁRIOS DE INTERNET =
6
Internet Trends
2019
Crescimento mundial de usuários =
Sólido mas desacelerando +6% vs. +7% A/A
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / 7
Internet Trends InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
2019
Entregas de telefones celulares novos =
Caindo -4% vs. 0% A/A
1.6B 75%
0.8B 25%
0.4B 0%
0%
0 -25%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
51%
Penetração da Internet, Global
35%
24%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / 9
Internet Trends InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
2019
Usuários de internet no mundo =
Ásia-Pacífico lidera em usuários + Potencial
Ásia-Pacífico
Asia Pacific 53% dos usuários do mundo
48%
48% de penetração dos usuários na região
Europa
Europe 15%
78%
78%
(15%)
13%
África
Africa e&Oriente Médio
Middle East 32%32%
América do Norte
North America 9%
89%
89%
0 3B 6B
Population
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / 10
Internet Trends InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
2019
Usuários de internet no mundo =
China em 21% of Total…Índia em 12%…EUA em 8%
China
India
EUA
Indonésia
Brasil
Japão
Rússia
México
Alemanha
Filipinas
Reino Unido
Irã(I.R.)
Nigéria
França
Turquia
0 0.8B 1.6B
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / 11
Internet Trends InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
2019
Capitalização dos líderes do mercado de internet mundial =
EUA estável com 18 de 30…China estável com 7 de 30
Pos Capitalização ($B)
2019 Empresa Região 6/7/19 6/7/16 % Mudança
1 Microsoft USA $1,007B $410B +146%
2 Amazon USA 888 343 +159%
3 Apple USA 875 540 +62%
4 Alphabet USA 741 497 +49%
5 Facebook USA 495 340 +46%
6 Alibaba China 402 195 +106%
7 Tencent China 398 206 +93%
8 Netflix USA 158 43 +266%
9 Adobe USA 136 50 +174%
10 PayPal USA 134 46 +190%
11 Salesforce USA 125 56 +123%
12 Booking.com USA 77 67 +15%
13 Uber USA 75 -- --
14 Recruit Holdings Japan 52 20 +167%
15 ServiceNow USA 51 12 +316%
16 Workday USA 48 16 +197%
17 Meituan Dianping China 44 -- --
18 JD.com China 39 32 +22%
19 Baidu China 38 60 (36%)
20 Activision Blizzard USA 35 28 +25%
21 Shopify Canada 34 2 +1,297%
22 NetEase China 33 23 +44%
23 eBay USA 33 28 +19%
24 Atlassian Australia 32 5 +509%
25 MercadoLibre Argentina 30 6 +388%
26 Twitter USA 29 11 +173%
27 Square USA 29 3 +808%
28 Electronic Arts USA 29 23 +25%
29 Xiaomi China 28 -- --
30 Spotify Sweden 25 -- --
Total $6,119 $3,064
USA stable at 18 of 30 refers to the fact that 19 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. China in 2018 = 8 of 30. Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19.
Note: % change only applies to companies that were publicly traded on 6/7/16, private valuations not taken into account. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies 12
Internet Trends (e.g., Meituan Dianping) derive the majority of their revenue from one country. Companies selected are considered to be ‘pureplay’ Internet companies that do not derive a significant portion of
2019 revenues / profits from other business lines. Example companies that would be included otherwise = Reliance Industries (Refining), AT&T (Telecom), & Naspers (Television).
Líderes de capitalização no mercado geral =
EUA estável em 23 de 30…Tecnologia estável em 9 de 30
Pos Capitalização ($B)
2019 Empresa Setor Região 6/7/19 6/7/16 % Mudança
1 Microsoft Technology USA $1,007B $410B +146%
2 Amazon Technology USA 888 343 +159%
3 Apple Technology USA 875 540 +62%
4 Alphabet Technology USA 741 497 +49%
5 Berkshire Hathaway Financial Services USA 505 350 +44%
6 Facebook Technology USA 495 340 +46%
7 Alibaba Technology China 402 195 +106%
8 Tencent Technology China 398 206 +93%
9 Visa Financial Services USA 372 192 +94%
10 Johnson & Johnson Healthcare USA 368 318 +16%
11 JPMorgan Financial Services USA 354 239 +48%
12 Exxon Mobil Energy USA 316 371 (15%)
13 Nestlé Food / Beverages Switzerland 306 230 +33%
14 Walmart Retail USA 303 221 +37%
15 ICBC Financial Services China 285 224 +27%
16 Procter & Gamble Home Goods USA 273 220 +24%
17 Mastercard Financial Services USA 271 106 +156%
18 Bank of America Financial Services USA 262 149 +76%
19 Royal Dutch Shell Energy Netherlands 259 198 +31%
20 Samsung Technology South Korea 249 166 +50%
21 Disney Media USA 248 160 +55%
22 Cisco Technology USA 239 146 +64%
23 Pfizer Pharmaceuticals USA 238 212 +12%
24 AT&T Telecom USA 237 242 (2%)
25 Verizon Telecom USA 237 207 +15%
26 UnitedHealth Healthcare USA 235 131 +79%
27 Roche Healthcare Switzerland 233 224 +4%
28 Chevron Energy USA 231 191 +21%
29 Coca-Cola Food / Beverages USA 220 196 +12%
30 Home Depot Retail USA 217 161 +35%
Total $11,264 $7,385
USA stable at 23 of 30 refers to the fact that 21 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. Technology in 2018 = 10 of 30.
Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies (e.g., ICBC) derive the majority of their revenue from one country. 13
Internet Trends
2019
Crescimento da receita dos líderes do mercado de internet mundial =
Desacelerando +11% vs. +13% (A/A – Q1 vs. Q4)
$400B 30%
$200B 15%
$0 0%
Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Netflix / Adobe / PayPal / Salesforce.com / Booking.com / Recruit
Holdings / ServiceNow / Workday / JD.com / Baidu / Activision Blizzard / Shopify / NetEase / eBay / Atlassian / MercadoLibre / Electronic Arts / Twitter / Square. 14
Internet Trends Note: *Uber, Meituan Dianping, Xiaomi and Spotify which had recent IPOs that did not provide detailed financials from Q1:15-Q4:16 that are necessary
2019 to illustrate the Y/Y growth rate & are therefore excluded. Due to their revenue scale relative to the cumulative group, they have minimal impact on overall growth rate.
Crescimento de receita dos líderes de capitalização =
Desacelerando +2% vs. +7% (A/A – Q1 vs. Q4)
$1,200B 16%
$600B 0%
0%
$0 -16%
Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Berkshire Hathaway / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Visa / Johnson & Johnson
/ JPMorgan / Exxon Mobil / Walmart / ICBC / Procter & Gamble / Bank of America / Samsung / Disney / Cisco / Pfizer / AT&T / Verizon / UnitedHealth / 15
Internet Trends MasterCard / Chevron / Coca-Cola / Home Depot. Nestle & Royal Dutch Shell quarterly revenue excluded due to bi-annual earnings releases.
2019
E-COMMERCE + ONLINE ADVERTISING =
SÓLIDO…
MAS DESACELERANDO SEU CRESCIMENTO
!17
Internet Trends
2019
E-Commerce
!18
Internet Trends
2019
Crescimento do E-Commerce =
Sólido +12.4% vs. +12.1% (A/A – Q1 vs. Q4)
$140B 20%
$70B 10%
$0 0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: Historic data (Pre-2016) adjusted / back-casted in 2017 by
USA Census Bureau to better align with Annual Retail Trade + Monthly Retail Trade Survey data. Seasonally adjusted. 18
Internet Trends
2019
Crescimento do Varejo Físico =
Sólido +2.0% vs. +1.6% (A/A – Q1 vs. Q4)
$800B 10%
$400B 0%
$0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
-10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database. Note: Physical Retail includes
all retail sales excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts & fuel. 19
Internet Trends
2019
Fatia de vendas do Ecommerce =
Crescimento continua em 15% do Varejo vs. 14% A/A
16%
% do Ecommerce
8%
0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: USA Census Bureau, St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: 15% = Annualized share. Penetration calculated by dividing
E-Commerce sales by “Core” Retail Sales (excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts, gas stations & fuel). All figures are seasonally adjusted. 20
Internet Trends Per US Census Bureau, E-Commerce is ~10% of total retails sales in Q1:19, including out-of-scope channels such as gas stations, fuel dealers, etc.
2019
Propaganda Online
21
Internet Trends
2019
Tempo de Mídia vs. Gastos com propaganda =
Mobile em equilíbrio(2018)…Desktop (2015)
2010 2018
50% 50%
% do tempo gasto em mídia / Gasto com propaganda, 2010, EUA
27% 25%
25% 25%
19%
18% 18%
16%
12%
11%
8%
8% 8%
7%
0.5% 3%
0% 0%
Print Radio TV Desktop Print Radio TV
Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile
Mobile Print Radio TV Desktop
Desktop Mobile
Mobile
Source: Internet & Mobile advertising spend based on IAB & PwC data for full year 2018 & 2010.
Print advertising spend based on Magna Global estimates for full year 2018 & 2010. Print includes newspaper & magazine. 22
Internet Trends Time spent share data based on eMarketer (10/18). Excludes out-of-home, video game & cinema advertising.
2019
Investimento em propaganda na internet (Anual)=
Acelerado +22% vs. +21% A/A
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crescimento A/A -
Linha vermelha
$30B 20%
$0 0%
Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Source: Company public releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. Note: Includes Google / Facebook / Twitter / Amazon / Snapchat / Pinterest.
!25
Internet Trends
2019
Plataformas de Anúncios na Internet =
Google + Facebook lideram mas outros ganhando espaço
$40B
Google
+1.4x
Facebook
$20B
+1.9x
Amazon / Twitter /
Snap / Pinterest
+2.6x
$0
80%
% Compra Programática – % Propaganda de Display Digital - Mundial
62%
40%
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Publicis / Zenith 2018 Programmatic Marketing Forecast. Note: Programmatic refers to ads bought both via real-time bidding
& non real-time algorithmically-driven ad purchases. Does not include non-display advertising (e.g., Search) 26
Internet Trends
2019
Ad Share Gain Drivers =
Melhor Targeting + Novos Criativos + Comércio + Alta-relevância
$60
Custo médio de ativação por usuário - Global
$30
$0
1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19
Source: Liftoff’s 2019 / 2018 Mobile Finance App Report. Note: Report draws from internal Liftoff Data from 2/1/17 to 3/31/19, spanning 19B+ ad impressions
across 5MM+ App installs, 270MM+ clicks & 3MM activations / registrations. Data focused on North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa & Asia Pacific. 28
Internet Trends Note: Activation = Adding & depositing funds to an account, activating a spending card, opening an equities position or starting a paid subscription.
2019
Realidade =
CAC não pode exceder LTV por muito tempo.
Produto próprio +
Clientes felizes + Recomendações
Internet Trends
2019
Marketing Efetivo + Eficiente =
Pode ser Free Trial / Plano
Free Trial
Free/ Plano
Trial 42%
42%
0% 25% 50%
Source: 2BrightCove / YouGov survey of 10,502 adults in USA, UK, France, Australia, Germany, Canada & UAE, 9/18.
!32
Internet Trends
2019
Clientes felizes…
Spotify = Conversão de usuários grátis para pagos…
Produto grátis sustentado por anúncios… …crescente relação LTV / Custo de aquisição de
assinante
2x
Nosso modelo freemium é responsável
por ~60% de nossos assinantes premium brutos 1.5x
novos ... o serviço sustentado por anúncios é um
programa de subsídio que compensa os custos de
aquisição de novos assinantes.
Source: Spotify releases & Morgan Stanley estimates of LTV & SAC. Barry McCarthy @ Spotify Investor Day (3/18). Note: Morgan Stanley estimates LTV by
calculating the value of a subscriber (including advertising revenue they generate before they upgrade to a paid user) accounting for gross margin & churn. 32
Internet Trends Subscriber acquisition cost calculated by dividing sales & marketing spend in a relevant period by the number of new subscribers in the same period.
2019
…Clientes Felizes…
Zoom = Conversão de usuários grátis para pagos
Grátis para participar quando um …alto LTV / CAC*
usuário pagante oferece…
6x
Source: Interview with SaaStr (8/17). Zoom S-1. Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates of LTV & CAC. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research calculated LTV as the
value of $1 of Annual Recurring Revenue, discounted for GAAP gross margin, Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimated Gross Churn & an 11% assumed discount rate. 33
Internet Trends CAC is calculated as the amount of Sales & Marketing expense in a relevant period, divided by the gross new Annual Recurring Revenue added in the same period.
2019
Marketing Efetivo + Eficiente =
Pode ser recomendações
Recomendado
Reccomendedpor alguém
by Someone 23%
0% 15% 30%
Source: McKinsey Research on E-Commerce Consumers (2/18). Note: Based on online survey from November 8 to 12, 2017, with responses
from more than 5,093 participants in the United States. Of those, 4,057 (80 percent) were online shoppers, defined as people who had spent at 34
Internet Trends least $25 online in the past month. Of those, 607 (15 percent) had subscribed to at least one service over the past 12 months.
2019
Clientes felizes…
Stitch Fix = Recomendações geram crescimento
3.0MM
0
Katrina Lake – Founder / CEO, Stitch Fix, 6/18 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19
Source: Katrina Lake interview @ JPMorgan Technology, Media & Communications Conference (6/18). Stitch Fix SEC Filings.
Note: Active Client refers to a client who has checked out at least 1 recommended ‘Fix’ in the past 12 months. 35
Internet Trends
2019
Advertising TBDs
No final deste ano, lançaremos o recurso "Limpar histórico", que também afetará
nossa capacidade de segmentação para terceiros.
Source: David Wehner speaking at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media, Telecom Conference, 2/26/2019.
TBD = To be Determined 37
Internet Trends
2019
TBD = Impacto em Ad Targeting…
Anúncios para TV (auxiliados por celulares em mãos)
…Criando oportunidades para experiências de
Dados multiplataforma ganham relevância
anúncios melhores
$600MM 60%
Source: AT&T / Xandr Releases. Nielsen Q2:18 Total Audience Report (12/18). Note: Survey based on Nielsen National USA
Panel data. Note: 2018 USA Mid-term elections drove above-average television advertising spend on Xandr platform. 38
Internet Trends
2019
USO DA INTERNET =
CRESCIMENTO SÓLIDO…
IMPULSIONADO POR INVESTIMENTO + INOVAÇÃO
!40
Internet Trends
2019
Uso
!41
Internet Trends
2019
Uso das Mídias Digitais =
Accelerando +7% vs. +5% A/A
Horas gastas diariamente por usuário adulto com Mídia Digital nos EUA
6.3
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.1
Horas gastas por dia - EUA
4.9
4.3 3.6
3.3
4 2.8 3.1
3.7
2.3 2.6
3.2 1.6
3.0 0.8
2.7 0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Outros equipamentos
Desktop / Laptop Mobile
conectados
Source: eMarketer 9/14 (2008-2010), eMarketer 4/15 (2011-2013), eMarketer 4/17 (2014-2015), eMarketer 10/18 (2016-2018).
Note: Other connected devices include OTT & game consoles. Mobile includes smartphone & tablet. Usage includes both home & 41
Internet Trends work for consumers 18+. Non deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking.
2019
Impulsionadores de Uso
!43
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Global / Negócios em Tecnologia =
Investimento se mantém robusto
!44
Internet Trends
2019
Investimento (Público + Privado) em Empresas de
Tecnologia = Em alta por duas décadas
$200B 9,000
IPOs e Financiamento Privado, Global
NASDAQ Composite
$100B 4,500
$0 0
1990 1996 2002 2008 2014** 2019YTD*
Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Capital Markets, *2019YTD figure as of 6/7/19, Thomson ONE. All global USA-listed technology IPOs
over $30MM, data per Dealogic, Bloomberg, & CapitalIQ. 2012: Facebook ($16B IPO) = 75% of 2012 IPO $ value. 2014: Alibaba ($25B 44
Internet Trends IPO) = 69% of 2014 IPO $ value. 2017: Snap ($4B IPO) = 34% of 2017 $ value. 2019: Uber ($8B IPO) = 56% of 2019YTD $ value.
2019
Negócios de Internet / Tecnologia =
Inovação nos EUA se mantém robusta…
45
Internet Trends
2019
Tempo no aparelho =
Mobile > TV
300
266
Média de tempo gasto diário (Minutos)
226
216
150
0 20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
Mobile Televisão
Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+.
Non-deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking. Updated from original 4/18 release in 10/18 by eMarketer 46
Internet Trends
2019
Tempo Online por Plataforma=
YouTube + Instagram Ganhando Mais
22% 19%
Instagram
15% Facebook
14%
Messenger
13%
11%
9% Twitter
5%
4% Snapchat
3% 4% Pinterest
1% 2% Twitch
0%
Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18
Source: Global Web Index Survey of 50K+ Global Internet users aged 16-64 (3/2017-12/2018). Note: WeChat is displayed as "Weixin" in China. *Countries surveyed include major Internet
populations – Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UK, USA, 47
Internet Trends United Arab Emirates, Vietnam. Toutiao estimate = ~4% of Internet users using Douyin in 2018….Not included owing to lack of trend data & regulatory action in period.
2019
Tempo assistindo vídeos =
Digital +2x em 5 anos @ 28% do total (vs. TV)
Assistindo vídeo diariamente em minutos
Digital vs. TV, EUA
400
Tempo médio gasto diariamente (Minutos), EUA
200
25% 28%
14% 23%
11% 17% 20%
4% 7%
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+. Non de-duplicated defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking.
48
Internet Trends
2019
Tempo em vídeo (Forma Curta – Facebook) =
1.5B usuários ativos diários + ~2x em 1 ano
1.6B
0
4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19
Instagram Stories WhatsApp Status
Facebook / Messenger Stories
Source: Facebook (8/18,12/18). Daily Active Users (DAU) = Users that interact with a Story daily.
Vertical segments of chart = owing to first reported DAU metric for each product. *Not de-duped across platforms. 49
Internet Trends
2019
Voz =
70MM Ouvintes Ativos de Podcasts + ~2x em 4 anos…
Source: The Infinite Dial 2019 by Edison Research & Triton (2/19). National survey of 1,500 people ages 12+. The estimated share of
USA respondents is the n multiplied by USA population over the age 13, per USA Census Bureau. Apple. 50
Internet Trends
2019
…Voz =
47MM Amazon Echo + ~2x em um Ano
60MM 100K
Base instalada, EUA
Nº de Habilidades
30MM 50K
0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC (Echo install base, 2/18), Various
media outlets including Geekwire, TechCrunch, & Wired (Echo skills, 4/19) 51
Internet Trends
2019
Wearables (Acessórios ou roupas conectados à internet) =
52MM usuários + ~2x em 4 anos
60MM
52MM
Wearable - Usuários, EUA
30MM
25MM
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: eMarketer (11/18). Users = Monthly Active adults 18+ years old who wear accessories or clothing embedded with
electronics, software, or sensors that have the ability to connect to the Internet (via built-in connectivity or tethering), 52
Internet Trends which in turn collects & exchanges data with a manufacturer, operator, or other connected devices.
2019
On-Demand - Sob Demanda=
56MM Consumidores + ~2x em 2 anos
60MM 56MM
Online Marketplaces
Transportes
Consumidores On-Demand, EUA
Moradia
30MM
25MM Entrega de Alimentos
Outros
0 $15B
$0 $30B
2016 2017 2018 Consumo, 2017, EUA
Source: National Technology Readiness Survey (4/18). Note: authored by Rockbridge Associates, Inc. & A. Parasuraman, & is co-
sponsored by the Center for Excellence in Service, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. The study is conducted 53
Internet Trends online among a representative sample of consumers in a national panel, & represents the views of U.S. adults ages 18 & older. The
2019 sample size was 1,032 in 2016 & 1,004 in 2017. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. 2018 figures are estimates.
Local =
236K Nextdoor Bairros Ativos + ~2x em 2 anos
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Nextdoor (5/19). 29MM = Cumulative local business recommendations on the platform, up 71% Y/Y vs. 17MM in 5/18.
54
Internet Trends
2019
População desassistida = Base de vendedores Square crescendo…
28% pontos mais rápido entre áreas metropolitanas de renda mais baixa vs. mais alta, EUA*
30%
Source: Square (5/19). * Per Federal Reserve’s “Survey of Terms of Business Lending”, Aug 2017 Note: MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Active sellers are
defined as those who have accepted five or more payments within the last 12 months. Square Capital Loans only available to Active Square Sellers. Data sourced 55
Internet Trends from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2017 report on “Annual Personal Income by Metropolitan Statistical Areas”. From 2014-2018, the adoption growth rate of the
bottom 25 MSAs was on average 1.22x that of the top, demonstrating the utility & relevance of payment technology in less traditional areas.
2019
…Negócios na Internet / Tecnologia =
56
Internet Trends
2019
China (Pinduoduo) = Conectando as preferências dos consumidores e fabricantes…
443MM Compradores + ~2x em 5 trimestres
Pinduoduo
Descoberta em grupo / Compra Compradores ativos, China
500MM
Source: Pinduoduo SEC filings (2018), Q4:18 Earnings Call (3/19) & Morgan Stanley.
Note: An active buyer is a buyer who has completed at least one transaction in the past 12 months. 57
Internet Trends
2019
China (Meituan Dianping) = Conectando Consumidores e Negócios locais…
~6MM Merchants + ~2x em 2 anos
Meituan Dianping
Compra direta Comerciantes Ativos, China
6MM
Source: Meituan Dianping Releases (2018-2019) Note: An active merchant is a merchant who has completed at least one transaction, purchased online marketing services,
processed a payment through Meituan Dianping’s service, or generated an order through Meituan Dianping’s ERP system. 58
Internet Trends
2019
América Latina (Rappi) = Digitalizando a entrega…
8MM de pedidos + ~2x em 4 meses
Rappi
Plataforma de Entrega Pedidos Mensais - América Latina
10MM
Simon Borrero, Sebastian Meija, Felipe Villanmarin, Andres Bilbao, Guillermo Plaza –
Co-Founders, 6/19
Tokopedia
Entrega no mesmo dia Comerciantes vs. Entrega no Mesmo dia / Próximo dia, Indonesia
0 0%
William Tanuwijaya – Co-Founder & CEO, Tokopedia, 2/19 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD*
2019
Source: Nikkei Asian Review (2/19). Tokopedia (4/19). *2019YTD = As of 4/19. Note: A registered
merchant defined as an enterprise with listing on Tokopedia. 2 60
Internet Trends
2019
Sudeste Asiático (Shopee) = Mobile-First Social Commerce…
$10B em vendas brutas + ~2x em 1 ano
$12B
Source: Sea Limited Q1:19 Earnings (2/19). Goldman Sachs Investment Research . Sea Limited operates commerce in Malaysia, Singapore, The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia & Vietnam.
!62
Internet Trends
2019
India (Reliance Jio) = Expandindo acesso offline ao E-Commerce…
307MM assinantes + ~2x em 1 ano…
Reliance Jio
Conectividade + Varejo Assinantes de Internet Sem Fio + Pontos de Varejo, India
500MM 12K
Reliance Jio
Full Suite Apps Uso de Dados, India
18EB
0
Música… Filmes… Televisão… Notícias… Bate- FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
papo… Finanças… Moda… Segurança…
FY = March
Armazenamento… Transferência de dados
Source: Jio Releases & Morgan Stanley. Note: 1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes. 1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes.
63
Internet Trends
2019
… Empresas de Internet / Tecnologia =
Internet Trends
2019
China (Alipay) = Serviços Financeiros Amplos Online / Offline…
1B usuários + ~2x em 2 anos
Alipay
Serviços Financeiros / Pagamentos Usuários Ativos Anuais, Global
1,200MM
Toss
Serviços Financeiros / Pagamentos Usuários, Coréia do Sul
12MM
5.0MM
0
10/15 4/16 10/16 4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19
10MM
0
4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19
Nubank – 5/19
MercadoLibre
Marketplace / MercadoPago Transações Anuais, América Latina
400MM
Grab
GrabPay GrabPay - Valor de Transição, Sudeste Asiático
4.0x
1.0x
Reuben Lai – Senior Managing Director, Grab Financial Group, 5/19 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
!72
Internet Trends
2019
Imagens =
A forma mais antiga de comunicação transportável
Source: Maxime Aubert, Griffith University, Wikimedia, National Science Museum, London.
!73
Internet Trends
2019
Durante séculos…
As pessoas aprenderam a
Escrever e compartilhar palavras…
Off-line e de um para um / alguns…
Internet Trends
2019
Comunicação via Texto (+ Números) =
Fundacional
75
Internet Trends
2019
Criação de Imagens =
Fundações continuam a crescer
Smartphone / Camera Ativos… …Potência dos Smartphone…
Smartphones Ativos Potência e Armazenamento de iPhone
Base de smartphones instalada, Global
4B 6,000 600GB
XS
GeekBench Processing
Power Benchmark
X
Armazenamento Máximo
7
2B 3,000 300GB
6S
5S 6
5
4S
0 0 0
2010 2014 2018 2010 2014 2018
15EB 300MM
0 0
2014 2016 2018 2000 2009 2018
Source: Smartphone Installed Base Per Morgan Stanley (3/19). iPhone Power / Storage Per. GeekBench Browser, Apple. Note: Geekbench is a multi-platform benchmarking tool intended to
compare the power of computer processors across generation, platform & workload. Maximum storage refers to largest storage capacity offered, as advertised. WiFi Data = WiGLE.net as of 76
Internet Trends 5/29/18. Note: WiGLE.net is a submission-based catalog of wireless networks that has collected >6B data points since launch in 2001. Submissions are not paired with actual people, rather
2019 name / password identities which people use to associate their data. Ericsson Q4:18 Mobility Report.
Compartilhamento de imagens =
Fundações continuam a crescer
Novas fotos tiradas por ano, Global Usuários Ativos no Instagram, Global
1.4T 1.0B
Fotos tiradas, Global
MAUs, Global
0.7T 0.5B
0 0
2013 2015 2017 2010 2014 2018
Source: Photo Creation Per InfoTrends Digital Imaging Reporter’s State of the Industry 2018. Instagram releases.
!78
Internet Trends
2019
Criação + Compartilhamento de imagens =
Engajamento continua a crescer…
Source: Twitter. Note: Other media includes GIFs, Audio & other non image / video media types
!79
Internet Trends
2019
…Criação e Compartilhamento de imagens =
Funcionalidade + Uso de plataforma continua a crescer…
Descoberta
Organização de Organização de Busca baseada em
imagens/ vídeos / baseada imagens /
Compartilhamento Compartilhamento em imagem commerce
!83
Internet Trends
2019
Imagens editadas =
Crescendo rapidamente
40B
0
12/17 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19
Source: Snap Inc. Q4:17 Earnings Call (2/18), Snapchat Blog Post (7/18), Adweek (11/18), Engadget (2/19) !84
Internet Trends
2019
Fluência de Design Baseada em Imagem +
Histórias =
Internet Trends
2019
Design fluído + História (Canva) = Design Simples /
Colaborativo / Orientado ao Feedback
Escolha o Tema
Customize o Design
Colabore em Equipe
!87
Internet Trends
2019
Imagem ou 1.000 Palavras?
Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild
ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates,
fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving.
Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown
breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their
eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is
called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap
into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They
spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or
surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air— rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on
land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are
waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching,
ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood
sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle
Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of
water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by
tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake,
sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted
from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food
on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often
following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks
are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes)
where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet
and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around
its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby
ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a
month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard
Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the
Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and
insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also
forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The
mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little
more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood.
Outside the nest, the brood sticks close
!89
Internet Trends
2019
Jogadores interativos de games =
Acelerando em 2.4B + 6% vs. +5% A/A
3.0B
Jogadores Interativos, Global
1.5B
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
100
~1 Atualização
Importante por
semana
0
Jeff Wilson – Unreal Engine Release Notes, Epic Games, 11/18 9/17 7/18 5/19
Source: Epic Games. (11/18). Note: Major update = named / numbered update to Fortnite.
!91
Internet Trends
2019
Jogos Interativos =
Internet Trends
2019
Jogos Interativos (Jogo)=
Fortnite com 250MM+ usuários + ~2x A/A em 7 plataformas
Evolução Épica do Fortnite vs. Usuários Registrados
1 2 3 4 5
Setembro 2017 Março 2018 Abril 2018 Junho 2018 Outubro 2018
Fortnite Battle Royale V3.4 Patch é Fortnite lança ao Fortnite lança para Fortnite para
Lança no PC / Mac / disponibilizado público na loja iOS, Nintendo Switch ... Android é lançado
PS4 / Xbox One com porssbilitando usuários disponibilizando jogos disponível em todos os
suporte limitado a enviar/receber em mobile entre principais consoles
convites entre plataformas
plataformas
300MM
Usuários Registrados, Global
150MM
4
3
2
0 1
300MM
0
5/17 5/18 5/19
Twitch
0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: TwitchTracker (4/19). Note: *Active broadcasters at year end refers to the number of broadcasters who have streamed in the month of
December for a given year. **Average concurrent users refers to the average daily peak of users viewing content on Twitch across a year. 94
Internet Trends
2019
Fortnite = Battle Royale ...
Ambiente de jogo limitado a 100 grupos de pessoas…
100MM 60%
50MM 30%
26%
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Os jogadores vencem Descobrindo Itens e
Ultrapassando Outros
Source: Morgan Stanley Research (10/18) Brian Nowak / IDC. Note: *For game consoles only (i.e. Xbox Live & Playstation Plus).
Subscription required to play online multiplayer Fortnite games on Xbox platform, but not Playstation (Fortnite is available even to non-subscribers). 95
Internet Trends
2019
… Fortnite = Eventos…
Experiências compartilhadas com limite de 100 grupos de pessoas…
Source: Fortnite. Common Sense Media / SurveyMonkey Survey of 766 USA Teens (13-19) who play Fortnite.
Survey conducted online via SurveyMonkey Survey portal (10/18). 96
Internet Trends
2019
… Fortnite = Bate-papo por voz…
Comunicação colaborativa limitada a 16 companheiros de equipe
Nós trabalhamos muito, muito duro com a Fortnite para manter uma experiência
segura - por exemplo, só há conversa entre você e seus companheiros de
esquadrão.
Não há bate-papo com base nas proximidades, para que não seja possível que
uma pessoa lamente a outra pessoa que não conhece.
Discuta com o time na sessão pré-jogo por voz Colaboração em tempo real no jogo via voz
Ambientes Compartilhados
Com Propósito Coletivo / Metas
Internet Trends
2019
MODELOS DE NEGÓCIO FREEMIUM =
CRESCENDO E ESCALANDO…
AINDA NO COMEÇO PARA EMPRESAS
(ENTERPRISE) E CONSUMIDOR
’Freemium’ cunhado por Fred Wilson (Union Square Ventures) e Jarid Lukin em 2006
!100
Internet Trends
2019
Negócios baseados em Freemium =
!101
Internet Trends
2019
Evolução do modelo de negócios Freemium =
!102
Internet Trends
2019
Jogos Freemium (2001) =
Runescape…
Free Premium
Jogue com outros… …melhore a experiência do usuário
1.6MM 12%
Source: Jagex releases, as compiled by The Guardian (12/03), Gameindustry.biz (2/05), Runescape
Blog (5/07) & GigaOM (6/07). Andrew Gower Interview first appeared on gamasutra.com (5/07). 102
Internet Trends Note: Users refer to monthly active users. Total Users refers to active users (free + paid) in relevant period.
2019
…Jogos Freemium (2017) =
Epic Fortnite
Free Premium
Jogue com outros… …melhore a experiência do usuário
20x
Source: Epic Games Releases (2017-2019) The Hollywood Reporter (3/19). Nielsen Superdata (6/18 +1/19)
Note: *Revenue growth estimate based on Superdata’s 3rd party estimate of ~$150MM in Epic Fortnite Revenue in 103
Internet Trends 2017 & $2.4B in 2018 revenue. Fortnite launched in September 2017.
2019
Jogos Freemium =
Social / Frequentemente Mobile / Pode Ser Passageiro
Nexon HearthStone
0 0% 0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Zynga Rovio
0 0.0% 0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Nexon = Annual Company Filings. HearthStone = Activision Blizzard Filings + Morgan Stanley estimates. Zynga = Zynga Annual Filings.
Rovio = Rovio Annual Reporting. Note Paid users refers to users who upgrade to unlock premium features such as ad-free game play. 104
Internet Trends Paid Users % of Total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period.
2019
Evolução do modelo de negócios Freemium =
!
105
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Empresas (2006) =
Google G Suite…
Grátis Pago
Comunique-se com outros… …Experiência de Uso na versão Enterprise
Consumidores Pagos*
6MM
G Suite Consumidores *
Os muitos produtos de sucesso do Google oferecem
experiências mágicas aos usuários [de graça] e, quando
entrei no Google, fui inspirado a levar a mesma mágica
3MM
para o local de trabalho com o G Suite ...
Source: Google Cloud Disclosures (2019) for G Suite Users. Google Next Conference for quote (7/18). Note: *Customers
refers to the number of paying businesses using G Suite, not the number of paid users (e.g., one company with 10K
106
Internet Trends employees would be counted as one customer. Google does not disclose the average G Suite customer size.)
2019
…Freemium Empresas (2013) =
Zoom
Grátis Pago
Comunique-se com os outros… …Experiência de Uso na versão Enterprise
Consumidores Pagos*
300K
Consumidores Pagos*
Nossa adoção rápida é impulsionada por um ciclo virtuoso de 150K
experiências positivas do usuário.
Os indivíduos geralmente começam a usar nossa plataforma
quando um colega ou associado os convida para uma reunião
do Zoom.
Quando os participantes experimentam nossa plataforma e
percebem os benefícios, eles geralmente se tornam clientes
pagantes para desbloquear as funcionalidades adicionais.
0
Zoom – S-1 Filing, 3/19 FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1
FY = January 31
Source: Zoom. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimate of Zoom Customers with 1-10 employees plus Zoom annual disclosure of customers with 11+ employees (5/19).
107
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium para empresa =
Colaborativo / Crítico / Anuidade
Dropbox Slack
18MM 3.0% 4MM 50%
0 0% 0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017
Wix SurveyMonkey
4MM 4% % de usuários pagos do total (linha vermelha) 0.8MM 4%
2MM 2% 0.4MM 2%
0 0% 0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Source: Dropbox = Public releases & Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates. Slack = Public press release (05/18), SurveyMonkey =
Company releases. Wix = Company presentation (3/19). Wix total users represent those with an account. Note: Paid users refers to subscribers to 108
Internet Trends premium products. Paid user % of total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period.
2019
Evolução do modelo de negócios Freemium =
!
!110
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium para consumidores (2008) =
Spotify…
Grátis Pago
Compartilhe músicas / listas com outros …experiência premium
Dar às pessoas valor legítimo antes de pedir que paguem pode ser uma
estratégia realmente útil para qualquer empresa que queira adoção
generalizada.
0 0
Melanie Perkins – Canva, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19 5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19
0 0%
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Usuários % de usuários pagos
Pagos em relação ao total
2MM 15%
$200MM $2B
0 0% $0 $0
2016 2017 2018 Q4:16 Q2:17 Q4:17 Q2:18 Q4:18
Source: Amazon Prime = Morgan Stanley estimates. Twitch = Morgan Stanley estimates. Chegg = Goldman Sachs Investment Research
estimates. Cash App = Square public disclosures. Note: Paying users = subscribers for Amazon Prime / Twitch / Chegg. For Cash App, stored 112
Internet Trends funds represent aggregate customer balances in the app as of the last day of the quarter. For all except Cash App, paid user % of total = share of
2019 payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period. Active users for Amazon = Active Paid accounts per MS estimates.
Evolução do Freemium =
Começou em Jogos
Evoluindo/Emergindo para
empresas + consumidores…
… apenas começando
113
Internet Trends
2019
Modelos de Negócios Freemium =
apenas começando…
Jogos Epic Games 27MM** Jogos Nexon King 2011 Itens Pagos / Ads
Assinaturas
(Empresa Privada)
Digital 2013
Itens Pagos / Ads
Assinaturas
Itens Pagos /
Empresas Dropbox 13MM Supercell 2014
Assinaturas
2015 Itens pagos
Mixi
2016 Itens Pagos
Netmarble
Consumidor Spotify 100MM 2018 Itens Pagos/
Epic Games Assinaturas
(Empresa privada)
Assinaturas
Empresas Dropbox 2017
Assinaturas/
Consumidor Spotify 2014 ads
Assinaturas/
Pandora 2015 ads
Assinaturas/
Match Group 2016 ads
*Excluding China companies where Freemium business models are more mature owing to higher maturity of digital payments, parti cularly microtransactions / Excludes diversified companies (such as Apple / Amazon
/ Microsoft ) owing to significant revenue contribution from non-freemium businesses / Includes private company Epic owing to scale.
114
Internet Trends **Epic = Midpoint of 23-31MM estimate for Battle Pass subscribers per Timothy O’Shea @ Jeffries (3/19)…not confirmed by Epic Games. Source: CapitalIQ (including currency conversion) = Nexon / King (2018
Revenue as part of Activision) / Pandora / Mixi / Match Group / Dropbox / Netmarble. Spotify = Wall Street Journal / Company reports. Supercell = Venture Beat.
2019
Possibilitador do Modelo de Negócios Freemium =
Cloud Deployment
(Hospedagem/Desenvolvimento nas Nuvens) …
115
Internet Trends
2019
Cloud Deployment (Desenvolvimento/hospedagem nas nuvens)=
Receita +58% A/A…
$14B 100%
$7B 50%
$0 0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Source: Amazon AWS = Company filings, Microsoft Azure = Keith Weiss @ Morgan Stanley (4/18), Google Cloud = Brian Nowak @
Morgan Stanley (5/18). Note: Google Cloud revenue based on MS annual estimate, applied to quarters using the seasonality trends on 116
Internet Trends 2018. Google only included in 2019 growth rates owing to lack of estimates before 2018.
2019
…Cloud Deployment =
22% do trabalho +2x vs. 5 anos atrás
50%
22%
0%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Uso das nuvens – Pesquisa com CIOs, EUA / UE por Morgan Stanley
49%
50%
39%
37%
% Respondentes
27%
25%
0%
PlatformaPaaS
como Serviço Infraestrutura
Iaas como um
(PaaS) Serviço (IaaS)
Q1:18 Q1:19
Source: Morgan Stanley Q1:19 CIO Survey. N= 100 USA / EU CIOs of major companies. Infrastructure as a service defined as
cloud computing that uses virtualized resources in the cloud (i.e. processing, storage, etc.), but not software or other value add 118
Internet Trends services. Platform as a service defined as cloud based hardware / software platforms, such as managed middleware.
2019
…Possibilitador dos modelos de negócio
Freemium e de Assinatura =
119
Internet Trends
2019
Pagamentos Digitais =
>50% das transações do dia-a-dia
Na loja
In-Store 41%
Botões de Comprar 9%
Outros pagamentos - mobile 8%
Transferência P2P 7%
59% = Aplicativos de Mensagem - Mobile 7%
Digital
Pagamento In-App - outros 4%
Código QR 5%
Wearables / Contactless 2%
Outros 2%
25%
0% 50%
% das respostas mundiais (6/18)
Source: Visa Global Commerce Unbound 2018 (2/19). Note: Full question was ‘Please think about the payments you make for everyday transactions (excluding rent,
mortgage, or other larger, infrequent payments). Thinking of your past 10 everyday transactions, how many were made in each of the following ways?’, GfK Research
conducted the survey with n = 8,127 across 20 countries (USA, Canada, UK, France, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, China, 120
Internet Trends India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, UAE, Kenya), between 5/31/18 – 6/29/18. All respondents do not work in Financial Services, Marketing, Marketing Research,
2019 Advertising, or Public Relations, own & currently use a smartphone, have a savings or checking account; own/use a computer or tablet, & own a credit or debit card.
FIM DA PARTE 1
!122
Internet Trends
2019
Tendências da Internet 2019
Parte 2
1) Usuários
2) E-Commerce + Propaganda
Parte 1 - Atual
3) Uso…
4) Modelos Freemium
5) Crescimento de Dados
6) …Uso
Parte 2
7) Trabalho
8) Educação
9) Imigração + USA Inc.
Parte 3 10) Saúde
11) China (por Hillhouse Capital)
2
Internet Trends
2019
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