CHAOS THEORY

The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of

the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges

from what it would have done. So, in a month's time, a tornado that would have

devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen. Or maybe one that wasn't going

to happen, does. (Ian Stewart, Does God Play Dice? The Mathematics of Chaos, pg.

141) ”

History of Chaos Theory

• In 1961, Eduard Lorenz discovered the butterfly effect while trying to forcast

the weather.

• He was running a set of numbers in a computer when he decided that he

needed another run.

• Rather than start from the beginning, he decided to save time, by starting

from the middle of the previous run.

• To his surprise the numbers evolve into an entirely new set of results

• In conventional models of time the results should have been the same.

• After thinking about this unexpected result. He discovered that the numbers

he had input into the computer were slightly rounded off.

• In conventional ideas, these differences should have been too trivial to create

any significant change.

• In 1970, Robert May developed the concept of bifurcation and period

doubling.

• He tried to study insect birthrate in relation to food supply.

• A period is the amount of time needed for a system to return to its original

state.

• In May’s study, he discovered that at critical times his equations required

twice the time to return to its original values.

• Then after several period doubling cycles the system turns chaotic or

unpredictable.

• Benoit Mandelbrot, an employee of IBM, was studying cotton price

fluctuations from the 1900s onward.

• He noted that price fluctuations seem chaotic and unpredictable.

• He decided to graph the price changes and to his surprise the graph formed a

geometric shape that seems to imply order in a seemingly chaotic system.

• Mandelbrot also analyzed several coastlines, noting that each coastline is

composed of several bays. These bays are composed of even smaller bays.

No matter how many times you magnify these bays there will still be smaller

and more microscopic bays that remain invisible.

• Helge Von Koch, captured this idea in his Koch curve.

 • To create a koch curve imagine an equilateral triangle. In the middle third of

this triangle add another equilateral triangle. Keep on adding triangles ad

infinitum.

• Mathematicians developed the concept of self-similarity.

• Feigenbaum discovered that self-similarity occurred in a constant rate

whether it applies to ecology, the weather, or human behavior.

Principles of Chaos Theory

 A tiny difference in initial parameters will result in a completely different

behavior of a complex system.

 The uncertainty principle prohibits accuracy. Therefore, the initial situation of

a complex system cannot be accurately determined, and the evolution of a

complex system can therefore not be accurately predicted.

 Complex systems often seek to settle in one specific situation. The situation

may be static (attractor) or dynamic (strange attractor).

Characteristics of a Chaotic System

• Dynamical

• Aperiodic and unstable

• Complex but may have simple causes

• It is non-linear

• It is deterministic but not predictable.

 • Iteration or feedback

Applications of Chaos Theory

 In the biological sciences chaos theory is used in modeling population growth,

epidemics, heart palpitations, arrhythmias, epileptic seizures etc.

 In economics, it is used to analyze stock market fluctuations

 It is used in movie special effects and image generation in computers

 It is used to model tectonic plate movements

Prepared by:

Christopher See