Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

www.elsevier.com/locate/tra

A study of an integrated intercity travel demand model

Enjian Yao *, Takayuki Morikawa
Division of Environmental Engineering and Architecture, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya
University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan

Abstract

It is well reported that induced travel is an important component of travel demand. With improved
transportation conditions, short run effects (e.g., route switches, mode switches, changes of destination,
and new trip generation) and long term effects (e.g., change in household auto ownership, and spatial real-
location of activities) will be observed. This paper aims to develop an integrated intercity travel demand
modelling system suitable for substantial changes in service level. The model utilizes combined estimation
across multiple data sources such as SP, RP and aggregate data. This integrated intercity travel demand
modelling system is characterized by an explicit intercity travel behavioural framework and its ability to
capture induced travel. Intercity travel decisions are represented by a nested model structure, and an acces-
sibility measure is introduced to capture short term induced travel. The paper also sketches a way to esti-
mate induced travel resulting from long term changes (spatial reallocation of activities). As a case study, an
integrated model including trip generation, destination choice, mode choice, and route choice is presented
for an intercity high speed rail project planned in Japan, and short term induced travel elasticities with
respect to travel cost, travel time, and etc. are also presented.
Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Induced travel; Behavioural effects; Integrated intercity travel demand model; Accessibility; Collective choice

*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +81 52 789 3730; fax: +81 52 789 3738.
E-mail address: yaoej@trans.civil.nagoya-u.ac.jp (E. Yao).

0965-8564/$ - see front matter Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tra.2004.12.003
368 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

1. Introduction

It is reported that travel demand growth within a specific corridor tends to be greater than the
expected travel growth after new capacity is added (e.g. SACTRA, 1994; Goodwin, 1996; Noland
and Lem, 2002). Travel demand growth is probably not only influenced by factors such as income
and population growth, but also by the improvement in the travel environment. This additional
travel is called induced travel. However, most conventional demand models usually assume that
travel demand, measured in number of trips, is totally inelastic to the level of service of the trans-
port system. Therefore, they fail to forecast this kind of travel demand growth.
A study executed by UK transport economists concludes that the elasticity of travel volume,
measured in vehicle miles of travel (VMT) with respect to travel time is
0.5 in the short term
(SACTRA, 1994). This means that reducing travel time in a corridor by 20% typically increases
traffic volumes by 10% in the short term (Litman, 2001). In the case of UK road projects, on aver-
age, the actual road use in the first year after its completion is more than 10% greater than the
forecast usage (Noland and Lem, 2002). The forecasting model employed by the UK government
seems to underestimate demand systematically. In a study of the relative contribution of induced
travel to overall VMT by Noland and Cowart (2000), induced travel accounts for 15–40% of the
annualized growth in VMT. For rail projects King (1996) suggests, that on average ‘‘HSR in
France and Japan has produced generated or induced traffic as high as 35% and typically greater
than 30% of diverted traffic’’.
Meanwhile, the size of any improvement is influenced by the amount of induced travel. Espe-
cially, for road capacity expansion projects, the congestion reduction benefits are overestimated.
SACTRA (1994) recommended therefore to account for these effects in the future.
However, with the conventional 4-step method, it is difficult to measure the changes in trip gen-
eration due to improved travel conditions, because the ‘‘conventional trip generation methods are
not sensitive to changes in the level of service and are not able to capture the effects of such travel
time reductions’’ (Kitamura et al., 1997). Therefore, the most likely reason for the cited inaccu-
racies is the failure to capture induced travel adequately. Accordingly, travel demand models with
the ability of actually accounting for induced travel are highly desirable.

1.1. The economic interpretation of induced travel

According to the economic theory of supply and demand, any reduction in the cost of goods
will result in an increase in the demand for the goods (Fig. 1). With improved socio-economic con-
ditions (e.g., population growth, increases in income, the development of a regional economy), the
travel demand curve shifts from D1 to D2. Meanwhile, improvements in travel conditions such as
increases in travel speed and decreases in travel cost will result in a reduction of generalized cost
shifting the supply curve from S1 to S2. Therefore, travel demand growth is affected by both exog-
enous factors that determine the location of the demand curve (e.g., increase in population, eco-
nomic development) and endogenous factors that determine the price-volume point along the
demand curve (e.g., reductions in travel time and travel cost).
As the result of the simultaneous shifts of demand curve and supply curve, a new equilibrium
point is reached and the travel demand increases from T1 to T3. However, the induced travel is
just measured as the part of demand change between T2 and T3, arising from the decrease in gen-
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 369

Cost of Travel
S1: Supply Before
S2: Supply After
C2
C1
C3
D2: Demand After

D1: Demand Before

T1 T2 T3 Quantity of Travel

Fig. 1. Induced travel. Adapted from Noland (2001, p. 4).

eralized travel cost from C2 to C3 in the future socioeconomic context. In fact, because the
changes in exogenous and endogenous factors usually occur simultaneously, it is difficult to isolate
the changes due to exogenous and endogenous factors. Induced demand is therefore hard to rec-
ognize and measure.
Based on this economic rationale, induced travel can be broadly defined as net increases in tra-
vel demand due to some endogenous factors (e.g., the improvement in transport capacity or trans-
port service). In detail, induced travel may include shifts between alternative routes, modes,
destinations or times of day, new trips not previously made. Certainly, the estimation of induced
travel is dependent upon the market for which the demand curve is defined, i.e., all these factors
do not always contribute to induced travel. For example, induced travel defined at the facility
level includes travel diverted from parallel routes, and travel switched from other transport
modes, while the induced travel at the regional level just include new trips.

1.2. The effects of induced travel

As the result of rational choice the improvement of road capacity or other transport properties in a
corridor will lead to some behavioural changes, which can be categorized as either long term or short
term effects. As Hills (1996) and Litman (2001) stated, short term effects include: changes in travel
departure times, routes switches, modes switches, longer trips (i.e. destination change), and increases
in trip generation. Although some changes such as mode/route switches and departure time changes
do not result in induced travel at a regional level, they result in changes in travel condition that will
induce additional travel. For example, mode/route shifts free up capacity on a congested road and
result in induced travel. This is a good example for second-order effects. As the result of lagged re-
sponses to the changes in travel conditions, increases in household auto ownership or the spatial real-
location of activities are possible and can be considered the long term induced travel effects.

1.3. The accessibility measure

In a disaggregate logit model, the expected maximum utility (accessibility) is capable of captur-
ing travellerÕs short term welfare change due to induced travel (rational mode/route choice and
destination choice) based on utility maximisation (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985).
370 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

The utility of the mode/route chosen is determined by the properties of the mode/route alter-
natives and the characteristics of travellers. Travellers react to changes in travel conditions imme-
diately, thus mode/route switches are viewed as short term effects. On the other hand, destination
utility is characterized by its demographic and social–economic properties and the travel condi-
tions between the origin and the destination. Along with relative changes in travel conditions
for different origin–destination pairs, travellers adjust their destinations. As the result of these
changes, longer trips and more trips are observed, i.e., induced travel occurs.
Meanwhile, many residents, employees, and businesses will tend to relocate over time according
to the changes in travel condition. These changes will result in destination changes or more trips
later, so that the spatial reallocation of activities is seen as a long term effect of induced travel.
Theoretically, if the resulting socio-economic changes at a destination can be predicted as the re-
sult of transport improvements, the effects of the spatial reallocation of activities can be reflected
in later destination choice behaviour.
In an integrated disaggregate nested model including a trip generation, destination choice,
mode choice, and route choice model, the accessibility term can summarize the utilities of mode
choice, route choice, and destination choice. With the inclusion of the accessibility measure as an
explanatory variable into the generation model, trip generation will become sensitive to the
changes in service level. In other words, the induced travel caused by these short term effects
can be estimated. However, because all the effects (mode/route shifts and trip redistribution)
are synthesized in a comprehensive measure, the contribution of each kind of behavioural effect
cannot be separated easily.
The induced travel derived from long term effects is a time lagged response to the travel con-
dition change. Since the response lag and the effect magnitude are hard to estimate, they cannot
be estimated by transport models. However, since the demographic and social–economic proper-
ties of a destination are usually included in the destination choice utility function, once the
changes in the demographic and social–economic properties of a destination (the results of lagged
spatial reallocation of activities in response to the changes in generalized travel cost) are predicted,
theoretically, induced travel due to subsequent effects of the spatial reallocation of activities can
be obtained. Normally, an additional land use model is needed to predict these demographic and
social–economic changes while accounting for large-scale endogenous economic and demographic
changes.

2. Integrated intercity travel demand model

As Koppelman (1989) indicated, the intercity travel-related decisions (trip generation including
trip frequency and purpose, destination choice, mode and route choice, and ‘‘at destination’’ deci-
sions such as lodging arrangement and local transport selection) are interrelated and cannot be
dealt with separately. These relationships can be reflected in a hierarchical structure of sub-models
for each sub-choice. In detail, each travel choice in the hierarchy is made conditionally on the
higher level choices, and on the other hand, the higher level choice is influenced by the expected
choices at lower levels. For example, the choice of travel mode choice is made conditional on the
selection of a specific destination city, while the effects of travel impedance should be considered in
the destination choice step.
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 371

…… O i …O j Trip Generation Model

Accessibility
…… Oi Dj … …O i Dk Destination Choice Model

LOGSUMM
Mode 1 Mode 2 …Mode m Mode Choice Model

LOGSUMR
Route 1 Route 2 …Route n Route Choice Model

Fig. 2. The nested structure of integrated intercity travel demand model.

Based on the hierarchical structure for the intercity travel demand model an integrated nested
intercity travel demand model is proposed in Fig. 2 for the consideration of induced demand. In
this model, each travel choice is made conditionally on the higher level choices, while the higher
level choice is influenced by the expected maximum utility (log sum term) of lower level choices.
Finally, induced travel can be estimated through introducing the accessibility measure into the
trip generation model.

3. The case

3.1. Background

JapanÕs famous Shinkansen, meaning ‘‘new trunk line’’, started its operation in 1964 in time for
the opening of the Tokyo Olympic Games. This line serving the Tokyo–Nagoya–Osaka (TNO)
corridor was named Tokaido Shinkansen. This corridor accommodates 70 million people (more
than half of the nationÕs population) and most of its economic activities, resulting in a huge
amount of travel along this corridor. The distance between Tokyo and Osaka is about 500 km
and the 1964 travel time was 4 h, which was reduced to 3 h 10 min in 1965 and to 2 h 30 min
at present. The annual ridership of 130 million people approximately equals the Japanese popu-
lation. Due to the physical conditions and the crowded timetable (280 return services per day) of
the Shinkansen railway system, it is almost impossible to reduce the travel time further or to ex-
pand the capacity. On the other hand, there is an increasing intercity travel demand in this cor-
ridor. Therefore, another high speed and large capacity transport facility is urgently required for
this corridor. An alternative highspeed rail (HSR) route with magnetically levitated trains is
planned to link the three major metropolitan areas in the corridor.
With the introduction of a new HSR running at over 500 km/h, the passenger capacity will be
doubled in Tokaido corridor. The travel time between Tokyo and Osaka will be more than halved
to about 1 h, making it possible to live in Osaka and commute daily to Tokyo. As a result, sig-
nificant changes in intercity transport markets along this corridor as well as nationwide are ex-
pected. Meanwhile, enormous direct benefits and economic ripple effects are predicted as the
result of this great improvement in accessibility.
372 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

Enormous investments (about 10 trillion JPY) are required for this megaproject. Considering
the current socioeconomic situation (e.g., a shrinking population and budget constraints for trans-
port projects) and the enormous investments required for the project, accurate demand forecast-
ing and reliable economic appraisal are a requirement for the feasibility study.

3.2. Data

A questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain revealed preference (RP) and stated preference
(SP) data for the mode choice model estimation. The RP data reflects current choices for intercity
travel, while SP data elicits the preference for the non-existing HSR system.
Questionnaires were distributed to railway users originating from one of the six main Japanese
metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, Kofu, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka). The respondents
were asked to describe the last trip (business or leisure) to each of the five other areas undertaken
during the last twelve months. The SP surveys first introduced and described the HSR to the
respondents. Afterwards the respondents were given eight profiles for each of their five trips, in
which the attributes of the HSR such as travel cost, travel time, and service frequency were sys-
tematically varied. The experimental design required only eight choice situations. The current
modal alternatives were left unchanged.
The repeated measurements make it likely that the observations are correlated ÔwithinÕ a
respondent. However, here, the models are estimated based on the assumption of independent
observations both between and ÔwithinÕ individual respondents. In other words, the disturbance
terms in random utility function are assumed to be independently and identically distributed.
Meanwhile, from a nationwide intercity travel survey executed by the Ministry of Land, Infra-
structure and Transport every five years, one-day OD trip tables by travel mode and purpose in
2000 were obtained. In the survey scheme, the country was divided into 207 zones, which were
aggregated into 147 for this analysis.
The mean trip distance of the RP and SP surveys is larger than 300 km. In order to capture
the effects of different travel behaviour patterns (e.g. intercity travel choices for shorter travel
distances), and the imaginable large corridor specific impacts as well as region specific im-

Table 1
SP/RP and aggregate data
SP/RP data Aggregate data
Survey method Questionnaire Census Survey
Survey year 2000 2000
Number of zones 6 (Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, 147
Kofu, Hiroshima, and
Fukuoka)
SP RP
Number of trips Business 8546 (273) 1134 (272) Departure place-based 950,909
Residence-based 563,738
Non-business 20,755 (715) 2933 (718) Departure place-based 1,575,928
Residence-based 838,935
Note: The numbers of respondents is given in parentheses.
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 373

pacts, the nationwide aggregate intercity matrix, with its many shorter distance observations,
is combined with the SP and RP data from the Tokaido corridor in the mode/route choice
model.
The trips are grouped by departure place and actual residence respectively. As it reflects the real
OD pattern, the departure place-based data is used for the estimation of mode/route choice
model. On the other hand, the residence-based data is used in the estimations of the destination
choice and trip generation models. The data used are summarized in Table 1.

4. Models

The nested structure of the integrated intercity travel demand model shown in Fig. 2 includes
trip generation model, destination choice model, mode choice model, and route choice mode. Due
to the sample size and the speed of the estimation software, the model is estimated sequentially
from the lowest level to the highest level rather than simultaneously. The parameters for the ex-
pected maximum utility derived from lower-level models satisfied the conditions for the validity of
hypothesized nested structure.

4.1. Integrated mode/route choice model

The intercity travel modes considered in this study are rail, bus, car, and air. The rail mode is
divided into three alternatives: normal rail, Shinkansen and HSR (see Fig. 3).
Fig. 4 shows the structure of the joint estimation with SP, RP and aggregate OD trip datasets
(AD). In the process of model estimation with multiple data sources, considering the non-effi-
ciency of using aggregate data form in the Berkson and TheilÕs Method (Ben-Akiva and Lerman,
1985), it is better to use the aggregate data in a (quasi)-disaggregate form. Based on the concept of

Rail Air Bus Car Mode Choice Model

HSR SHINKANSEN Conventional Rail Route Choice Model

Fig. 3. Nested mode/route choice model.

RP Model AD Model SP Model

U inRP = VinRP + ε inRP U inAD = VinAD + ε inAD U inSP = VinSP + εinSP

2
Var (εinAD ) = µ SP Var (ε inSP )
2
Var (ε inAD )= µ RP Var (ε inRP )

Fig. 4. Model structure with combined SP, RP data and aggregate data.
374 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

the representative individual, all travellers with same mode choice for an OD pairs are treated as a
group of persons with homogeneous properties.
In fact, the process creating a representative individual sample can be viewed as endogenous
(Choice-based) sampling. Within the framework of Weighted Exogenous Sample Maximum Like-
lihood (WESML) estimation, a weight factor is introduced into the likelihood function for the
aggregate data set to remove the bias between the sample and population data. The maximum
likelihood function with weight factor is
XX
LðhÞ ¼ din wðgÞ ln P ðijX in ; hÞ ð1Þ
n i

QðgÞ
wðgÞ ¼ ð2Þ
HðgÞ
where, w(g) is the weight for a representative individual stratum g; Q(g) is the population propor-
tion for stratum g; H(g) is the sampling proportion for stratum g and P(ijXin, h) is the choice prob-
ability for mode i.
Three sub-models for each data set share the same nested structure. In other words, the logsum
scale parameters for these three sub models are equal to each other. These three random utility
equations are
RP model : U RP RP RP
in ¼ V in þ ein ð3Þ

SP model : U SP SP SP
in ¼ V in þ ein ð4Þ

AD model : U AD AD AD
in ¼ V in þ ein ð5Þ

Because the preference elicitation methods are different for the RP, SP, and aggregate data, the
variances of disturbance terms in these three data sets are assumed to be different. In other words,
the three random components (i.e. eRP SP AD
in , ein , and ein ) are assumed to be independently distributed
with zero means, while the variances are different from each other.
The relationships among the variances of disturbance terms of SP, RP, and aggregate data sub-
models are
2
VarðeAD
in Þ ¼ l
SP
VarðeSP
in Þ ð6Þ
2
VarðeAD
in Þ ¼ l
RP
VarðeRP
in Þ ð7Þ

In the joint model, the SP, RP and the aggregate data are considered to be indicators of the util-
ities, and the joint likelihood function is.

LADþRPþSP ðlÞ ¼ LAD þ LRP ðlRP Þ þ LSP ðlSP Þ ð8Þ

where, LSP(lSP), LRP(lRP), and LAD are the log-likelihood function for SP, RP, and aggregate
data set respectively.
As far as the systematic terms are concerned, the same trade-offs between major attributes were
assumed for all three datasets. This is helpful to correct any bias that may exist in the SP re-
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 375

sponses, to improve statistical efficiency of parameters, and to capture the effects of different travel
behaviour patterns in different areas.

4.2. Destination choice model

The residence-based aggregate intercity trip data is used to estimate the destination choice
model. Because of the inefficiency of aggregate data in the Berkson and TheilÕs Method, the aggre-
gate data is transformed into a disaggregate form, which is then used to estimate a disaggregate
logit destination choice model.
Moreover, there are too many destination alternatives (146 alternatives) to be dealt with in a
discrete choice model. In a large choice set context, it has been proved that estimation may be
conducted on a subset of alternatives without loss of parameter consistency (Ben-Akiva and Ler-
man, 1985). The destination alternative set therefore comprises the actually chosen destination
and 10 additional destinations randomly selected from the set of non-chosen destinations.
Generally, variables which indicate a cityÕs characteristics (e.g., population, economic and cul-
tural indices, indicators of industrial structure etc.) and the transport impedance indicators be-
tween cities (e.g., distance, generalized cost etc.) are used to specify destination choice utility
function. In this case, the GDP per capita, the ratio of working population to population, and
two variables indicating the degree of the attractiveness of a zone for business and non-business
purposes are also used as explanatory variables in the utility function. The attractiveness is calcu-
lated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analytical method. In the case of business travel,
the attractiveness is defined by business relevant factors, such as the number of headquarters, the
number of international conferences, a region indicator, the turnover of the IT industry etc.). On
the other hand, the attractiveness indicator for non-business travel mainly captures the suitability
for leisure activities, and is based on the numbers of resorts, sport centres, museums, cinemas,
shopping centres, and so on. The expected maximum utility derived from mode/route choice
model is used as an explanatory variable as well.

4.3. Trip generation model

For lack of information about individual trip frequencies, a regression model is used instead of
an otherwise suitable discrete choice approach, such as the ordered logit or nested logit model.
The expected maximum utility, interpreted as the accessibility measure for an individual in ori-
gin zone i, is used as an explanatory variable in the trip generation model for this zone.
!
1 X
Accessibilityi ¼ ln expðl3 V ij Þ ð9Þ
l3 D

where, l3 is the scale parameter for destination choice level, Vij is the utility function from origin
zone i to destination zone j, and D is the destination alternative set for origin i. Through the acces-
sibility measure in the trip generation model, the trip generation model becomes sensitive to the
changes in travel conditions. Therefore, induced travel elasticities can be assessed. Due to the lack
of disaggregate data, those factors usually employed to model trip making such as the character-
istics of the households and individuals cannot be used in our models.
376 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

5. Estimation results

5.1. Integrated mode/route choice model

Considering the heterogeneity (e.g., the trip distance, the travel behavioural pattern) between
the aggregate data and disaggregate data, different constants were estimated. In fact, this hetero-
geneity is also visible when comparing mode shares among SP, RP, and aggregate data (Fig. 5).
For example, the share of car travel in the aggregate data is far higher than the corresponding
figures in the SP and RP data sources. This is explained by the fact that the car is widely used
in short distance trips (less than 100 km) while HSR and air dominate over medium and long
distances.
The estimation results of the combined SP/RP and aggregate datasets are summarized in Table
2 for business and non- business trips:

(1) All parameters are statistically significant and consistent with their hypothesized effects on
utility. For both business and non-business purposes, the explanatory variables travel cost,
line-haul time, access and egress time, and service frequency significantly influence mode
and route choices.
(2) The value of travel time savings (VTTS) obtained from the joint estimate is reasonable. The
VTTS of business purpose is larger than that of non-business purpose. This is consistent with
common sense as the time saved in a business travel can be used for production, while travel
time savings for non-business purpose are likely to accrue to and be retained by the individual
as an increase in the amount of time available for all leisure activities (Mackie et al., 2001).
For each travel purpose, the line-haul VTTS of rail/air is larger than that of bus/car. Mean-
while, the access and egress VTTS of rail/bus is less than that of the air. This means that the
access resistance to the airport located in the suburbs is larger than that to rail station located
in the inner city. The results of the combined estimation reflect the heterogeneity of the dis-
aggregate and aggregate data sources, as the constant of the car alternative is positive for the
aggregate data while it is negative for the questionnaire data.
(3) The constant terms indicate there is a general preference for the HSR service relative to other
modes for both business and non-business travel.

Business Non-Business

SP SP

RP RP

AD AD
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
HSR Shinkansen Air
Regular rail Express Bus Car

Fig. 5. Mode share comparison among SP, RP, and aggregate data.
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 377

Table 2
The estimation results of mode/route choice (t-statistics are in parentheses)
Business Non-Business
SP/RP Aggregate SP/RP Aggregate
Constant: HSR 0.450 (5.2) 0.587 (19.76)
Constant: Shinkansen 0 0 0 0
– – – –
Constant: Air
1.280 (
4.2)
1.56 (
5.9) 1.887 (11.82)
0.796 (
5.69)
Constant: Conventional rail 0 0 0 0
– – – –
Constant: Express bus
11.3 (
8.5)
2.99 (
11.2)
2.270 (
13.65)
1.884 (
14.25)
Constant: Car
5.17 (
8.5) 1.40 (7.7)
0.603 (
7.49) 3.592 (28.97)
Travel cost (10000 JPY)
3.326 (
14.9)
2.442 (
25.93)
Line haul time: Rail/air (60 min)
2.136 (
19.4)
0.562 (
22.79)
Line haul time: Express bus/car (60 min)
2.06 (
19.1)
0.562 (
22.79)
Access time: Rail/express bus (60 min)
1.65 (
15.9)
0.519 (
11.61)
Access time: Air (60 min)
1.65 (
15.9)
1.150 (
12.09)
Service frequency: Rail/express bus 0.248 (12.0) 0.164 (20.5)
(times/60 min)
Service frequency: Air (times/60 min) 0.489 (21.5) 0.164 (20.5)
Scale parameter 0.820 (6.8) 0.558 (34.9)
lSP 0.627 (23.9) 1.467 (28.7)
lRP 0.476 (14.1) 1.243 (22.6)
Number of observation 18,798 32,202

2
q 0.495 0.456
Line haul VTTS: Rail/air (JPY/min) 107.0 38.4
Line haul VTTS: Express bus/car (JPY/min) 103.3 38.4
Access time VTTS: Rail/Express bus 82.6 35.4
(JPY/min)
Access time VTTS: Air (JPY/min) 82.6 78.5
In 2000: 100 JPY = 0.93 US$ = 0.72€ 82.6 78.5

(4) The logsum scale parameters of business and non-business models (both smaller than 1.0) jus-
tify the assumption of a nested structure for mode/route choices.
(5) In the joint model for business purpose, the scale parameters reflecting the ratio of SP/RP
variances to that of the aggregate dataset (lSP = 0.627, lRP = 0.476) are both smaller than
1.0. This means that the SP and RP dataÕs variance component is larger than that of aggregate
data. On the contrary, the SP and RP dataÕs stochastic variance component is smaller than
that of aggregate data in the non-business case (i.e. lSP = 1.467, lRP = 0.234).

5.2. Destination choice model

The estimation results of the destination choice model for business and non-business purposes
are presented in Tables 3 and 4 respectively.
All parameters are statistically significant and consistent with their hypothesized effects on the
utility. The business estimation results indicate that the value of expected maximum utility, the
378 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

Table 3
Estimation results for business destination choice
Explanatory variable Parameter t-Statistic
Log sum term of the mode/route choice model 0.169 50.7
Zonal GDP per capita (Million JPY) 1.69 24.4
Share of working population in the second sector (%)
0.437
29.2
Business attractiveness 10.6 2.5
Number of observation 5975

2
q 0.268

Table 4
Estimation results for non-business destination choice
Explanatory variable Parameter t-Statistic
Log sum term of the mode/route choice model 0.335 55.6
Share of working population (%) 0.037 11.9
Share of working population in the second sector (%)
0.172
15.6
Share of working population in the service sector (%) 0.033 3.5
Non-business attractiveness 30.833 5.0
Number of observations 5601

2
q 0.179

GDP per capita, the share of working population in production industry, and the business attrac-
tiveness significantly affect the destination choice of business travellers. A destination with a lower
share of second sectors employees, higher GDP per capita, and higher attractiveness is more likely
to be selected as a business travel destination. On the other hand, the share of working population
in service industry, the share of working population in the second sector, the total share of the
working population, the non-business attractiveness of the destination zone, and the accessibility
to the destination affect significantly the non-business destination choice.
The parameters of the expected maximum utility for business and non-business destination
choice models are 0.169 and 0.335, and smaller than the corresponding figures 0.820 and 0.558
(the logsum scale parameters in lower nested mode/route choice model) respectively. The nested
structure assumed for destination and mode/route choice in the integrated intercity travel demand
model is therefore reasonable (Fig. 2).

5.3. Trip generation model

The specific accessibility, which captures the effects of mode/route and destination choice, is
used as an explanatory variable in the trip generation model. To improve the accuracy of trip gen-
eration model, as shown in Table 5, the zones are classified into several sub regions based on the
geographic distribution and the travel conditions for business and non-business purposes respec-
tively. The estimation results of trip generation model are presented in Tables 6 and 7.
Since the trip generation model is estimated as an aggregate model, the specific accessibility
multiplied by the population is used as an explanatory variable in the trip generation model.
For all regions, this term has a positive parameter and is significant. This means that people tend
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 379

Table 5
Definition of the regional categories
No. Business Non-business
1 Tokaido corridor Tokyo metropolitan areas
2 Regions along the conventional rail Sanyou Nagoya metropolitan areas
3 Others Osaka metropolitan areas
4 Kyushu, Sikoku, Okinawa prefectures
5 Others

Table 6
Trip generation model for business travel (t-statistics are in parentheses)
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3
Constant 260.1 (0.9)
2803.8 (
1.6) 213.5 (0.7)
Accessibility * population (1,000,000 persons) 174.1 (7.7) 824.5 (7.0) 186.2 (3.5)
Working population in service sector (1,000,000 persons) 2146 (2.6) 9342.8 (6.3)
Number of observations 63 13 71
R2 0.838 0.801 0.715

Table 7
Trip generation model for non-business travel (t-statistics are in parentheses)
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5
Constant 2999.48 (1.78) 286.44 (0.38) 89.68 (0.15)
5385.5 (
1.27) 1253.32 (1.69)
Accessibility * population 200.54 (2.91) 228.16 (5.58) 193.94 (4.10) 1461.04 (5.36) 583.66 (7.10)
(1,000,000 persons)
Number of observations 23 17 16 13 78
R2 0.253 0.653 0.513 0.698 0.391

to increase their travel frequency with the improvement of accessibility. For the business trip gen-
eration model in Region 1, the working population in service industries has a positive significant
impact, implying higher trips rates for service sectors employees in comparison with the rest of the
economy.
The constants, which represent the average effect of all the factors that influence the amount of
intercity trips but not be included in the model, are not significant. For the reasons of small sam-
ple size and the fact that only one explanatory variable is available in the business model of region
2 and non-business model of region 4 respectively, the models are not satisfactory (e.g. constants
are too large).
For business purpose models, the adjusted coefficients of determination R2 are high and satis-
factory. In non-business models, R2 for region 1 and region 5 are not so satisfactory. The primary
reason for this is that only one explanatory variable is available.
With the introduction of accessibility term into the trip generation model, the short term in-
duced demands can be forecast. But longer-term effects require an additional land use model to
capture the changes due to changes in the demographic and social–economic properties.
380 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381

Table 8
Short term elasticities of induced travel measured as VMT
Travel cost Travel time Access time Service frequency
Business
1.7
1.2
0.6 0.6
Non-business
1.7
0.7
0.3 0.5

Table 9
Short term elasticities of induced travel measured as number of trips
Travel cost Travel time Access time Service frequency
Business
1.6
1.2
0.7 0.7
Non-business
1.5
0.6
0.3 0.5

5.4. Induced travel

The HSR will be put into operation in 2020. The demographic and socioeconomic data of the
forecast year (2020) are estimated using the status-quo trends, and the LOS (level of service) char-
acteristics for the HSR are determined using its technical specification and timetables. This is
taken as the base case. In 2020, the induced travel accounts for 16.5% of the travel demand (mea-
sured in VMT), and 14.5% of the travel demand (measured in number of trips) respectively in the
TNO corridor. The elasticities of induced travel with respect to travel cost, travel time, access
time, and service frequency of the HSR are calculated as the percentage changes in induced travel
from the base case, divided by the percentage change in these variables from the base case respec-
tively (i.e., the percentage change from the base case is 10%). They are summarized for business
and non-business travels in Tables 8 and 9.
There is no significant difference between elasticities measured in VMT and number of trips.
For both measurement units (i.e. VMT and number of trips), similar travel cost elasticities are
obtained for business and non-business travel, while the travel time elasticity for business travel
is about twice of that for non-business travel. The cost and time elasticities are unusually large,
which indicates that the complete model system employed here, picks up further changes usually
not accounted for.

6. Conclusions

Accurate predictions of intercity travel demand and a reliable economic appraisal are required
for the evaluation of intercity transport projects with large capital investment needs. The under-
lying idea is that the intercity travel choice is composed of several interrelated sub-choices (includ-
ing trip frequency, destination, mode, and route choice etc.). The demand model should then be
structured to match this rather than dealing with them separately. Meanwhile, it is clear that in-
duced travel is a very important component of the travel demand change. The model should be
sensitive to the changes in the travel conditions, and capable of predicting induced travel. An inte-
grated intercity travel demand model with a nested structure was developed in this paper. The
 E. Yao, T. Morikawa / Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 367–381 381

model is characterized by the explicit consideration of the underlying intercity travel behavioural
framework and the ability to capture induced travel.
Here an accessibility measure was defined to capture these effects and induced travel. With the
inclusion of the measure into the trip generation model, the short run induced travel can be
estimated.
A framework of combined estimation with multiple SP, RP, and aggregate trip data sources
was employed. Based on the representative individual, aggregate trip data can be viewed to rep-
resent the choices of a number of persons with homogeneous properties. Therefore, the aggregate
data can be converted into disaggregate form to be used in the disaggregate model. Meanwhile in
line with the WESML framework, a weight factor is introduced into the joint likelihood function
to account for aggregate nature of an observation. The combined estimation is helpful in correct-
ing any bias that may exist in the SP responses, to improve parametersÕ statistical efficiencies and
reliabilities, and to capture the effects of different travel behaviour patterns in different areas.
The results of induced travel elasticities indicate that induced travel increases with the decreases
in travel time, travel cost, and access time, while increase with the improvement of service fre-
quency. Meanwhile, the results also represent that the induced travel in business travel is more
sensitive to the changes in travel time, access time, and service frequency than non-business travel.
The elasticities reported here are very substantial and will need to be verified by further studies of
the type presented here.

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