Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Monetary 8 In the monetary sector, both broad money supply (M2) and narrow money supply (M1) grew by more
than 20 percent in Q3 2008. However, total loans disbursement to business sector increased only by 8.7
percent. Loans to deposit ratio (LDR) edged down to 41.1 percent in September 2008, from 50.1 percent in
Public Finance 12
September 2007.
Fiscal surplus in Q3 2008 was recorded at BND 2.8 billion. Revenue went up sharply by 71.1 percent on
the back of high oil prices, while expenditure was down by 25.1 percent.
Consumer Price 18
Index Inflation in Q3 2008 was recorded at 3.1 percent, year-on-year. On a year-to-date basis (January-
September 2008) inflation was recorded at 2.2 percent. Inflation in the food and non-alcoholic beverages
items was the primary reason behind such a pressure.
External Trade 21
External Trade statistics showed that the cumulative 9 months surplus in 2008 had reached almost
BND8 billion, driven by high oil prices (hence, oil revenues). In Q3 2008, Japan and Indonesia remained the
Oil and Gas 26 dominant export market, accounting for almost 64 percent of the total export.
Outlook Data seems to indicate that the full 2008 picture will be mixed. Growth is expected to have gone
down sharply. Full year inflation for 2008 is expected to have been higher than the target rate of between 1-2
Outlook 29 percent. Meanwhile, Brunei Darussalam is expected to have recorded surpluses in both the trade and fiscal
accounts.
Special Article I 30
Special Article II 39
Growth in Q3 2008
(%)
Q3 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
year- quarter-
on- on-
year quarter
GDP at Current Prices
4,527.5 5,131.5 5,720.2 26.3 11.5
(BNDMillion)
GDP at 2000 Constant Prices
2,985.2 2,774.2 2,918.4 -2.2 5.2
(BNDMillion)
GDP by expenditure
The main growth drivers were The growth drivers in Q3 2008 were gross fixed capital formation, government
investment, government consumption expenditure and personal consumption expenditure (Table 1.2 and
consumption and personal Table 1.6).
consumption.
Gross fixed capital formation expanded by 11.7 percent in Q3 2008, lower than the
12.1 percent in Q2 2008. This was largely due to a moderation of investment in the
construction sector from 7.3 percent in Q2 2008 to 3.2 percent in Q3 2008. On the
other hand, investment in machinery and equipment grew from 18.6 percent in Q2
2008 to 21.8 percent in Q3 2008.
These expansions were offset by the fall in the export of goods and services and the
expansion in import of goods and services.
Export of goods and services declined further by 8.7 percent, following a 9.7
Page 2
Volume 6 - Issue 3
percent drop in Q2 2008. This was driven by a further contraction in the export of
goods by 9.6 percent, after a 12.6 percent drop in the last quarter. Export of
services also contracted by 2.5 percent in Q3 2008, down from a 12.1 percent
expansion in Q2 2008. Contributing to the decline in the export of goods was the
drop in the crude oil export by 19.4 percent from 164,077 barrels per day in Q2
2008 to 132,203 barrels per day in Q3 2008. Further, production of garments also
fell by 4.1 percent from 523,990 dozen in Q3 2007 to 502,565 dozen in Q3 2008. However, these were offset by the
However, export of LNG grew by 4.8 percent from 1,012,803 MMBtu per day to contraction in export and increase
in import
1,060,973 MMBtu per day, during the same period.
Import of goods and services improved by 56.5 percent in Q3 2008, up from 4.2
percent in Q2 2008. This was mainly attributed to a double-digit growth of imports
of goods (79.9 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008 from 5.0 percent year-on-year in
Q2 2008). On the other hand, import of services declined by 0.6 percent year-on-
year in Q3 2008, from 2.6 percent growth in Q2 2008. The sharp increase in the
import of goods was mainly attributed to a jump in the level of import of high-
speed diesel fuels from BND21.7 million in Q3 2007 to BND608.3 million in Q3
2008.
Table 1.2 : GDP by expenditure (Q3 2008)
GDP by production
The oil and gas sector shrank by 7.0 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008 (Table 1.3). In terms of production, the oil and
This was due to the fall in both the Oil and Gas Mining and Manufacture of gas sector fell by 7.0 % year-on-
year
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) sub-sectors by 9.0 and 0.7 percent year-on-year,
respectively. The oil and gas sector made up 72.8 percent of Brunei Darussalam’s
nominal GDP in Q3 2008.
Page 3
Brunei Economic Bulletin
The production of crude oil fell by 11.7 percent year-on-year, from 190,570 barrels
per day (bpd) in Q3 2007 to 168,213 bpd in Q3 2008 (Table 1.4). This was due to
Indicators for the oil and gas
sectors all showed negative growth the less than satisfactory production level of the oil wells. Similarly, the production
rates of natural gas fell by 3.0 percent year-on-year, from 1,241 MMscf per day in Q3
2007 to 1,204 MMscf per day in Q3 2008. The production of LNG dropped by 1.1
percent year-on-year, from 1,045,870 MMbtu per day in Q3 2007 to 1,033,951
MMbtu per day in Q3 2008.
Table 1.4 : Oil & Gas Sector (Q3 2008)
Growth rates
(% y-o-y)
Oil & Gas Mining Value Added (VA) -9.0
LNG Manufacturing VA -0.7
Oil & Gas (VA) -7.0
Crude oil production -11.7
Natural gas production -3.0
LNG production -1.1
on-year growth in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the private services registered
an expansion of 3.8 percent year-on-year, an improvement from the growth of 0.7
percent year-on-year in Q2 2008.
The Vegetables, Fruits & Other Agriculture sub-sector recorded a growth of 18.6
percent year-on-year in Q3 2008 after growing by 26.7 percent year-on-year in Q2
2008. The growth was due to the increase in the production of vegetables and cut
flowers.
The Fishery sub-sector fell further by 17.5 percent year-on-year, following a year-
on-year contraction of 17.1 percent in the Q2 2008. It was the aquaculture industry,
specifically prawns, which contributed to the decline.
The non-oil and gas manufacturing sub-sector are the combination of the
Manufacture of Wearing Apparel & Textile and Other Manufacturing sub-sectors.
In Q3 2008, the Manufacture of Wearing Apparel & Textile sub-sector contracted
by 4.2 percent year-on-year on the back of lower garment production from 523,990
dozens in Q3 2007 to 502,656 dozens in Q3 2008. This was comparatively better
than the fall of 38.0 percent year-on-year recorded in Q2 2008. For the Other
Manufacturing sub-sector, the Q3 2008 positive year-on-year growth of 6.8 percent
was an improvement from Q2 2008 performance of 6.0 percent year-on-year
contraction. One factor that contributed to the growth was the increase in the
production of sawn timbers.
The Construction sub-sector rose by 2.8 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008 after The main contributors to real
falling by 1.0 percent year-on-year in Q2 2008. Imports of construction materials GDP growth were the
such as sand, cement and stone & gravel went up in Q3 2008 year-on-year. Construction (0.1 pp),…
By contrast, the Wholesale and Retail sub-sector went down by 2.5 percent year-
on-year after a growth of 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q2 2008. The drop coincided
with a 9.4 percent year-on-year fall in personal loans from BND2,766.0 million in
Q3 2007 to BND2,506.0 million in Q3 2008.
Page 5
Brunei Economic Bulletin
… Water Transport (0.3 pp)… The Water Transport sub-sector’s performance improved further with a growth of
24.7 percent year-on-year, after growing by 12.1 percent year-on-year in Q2 2008.
The Air Transport sub-sector registered a growth of 8.1 percent year-on-year in Q3
2008. This was partly driven by the increase in the number of air passengers. The
positive growth was an improvement after recording a contraction of 11.5 percent
year-on-year in the previous quarter. Other Transport Services sub-sector grew by
12.7 percent year-on-year compared to a growth of 38.2 percent recorded in Q2
2008. Similarly, the Communication sub-sector also registered a positive year-on-
year growth of 2.1 percent in Q3 2008. In Q2 2008, the sub-sector expanded by 6.2
percent year-on-year. Two indicators of the growth were the increase in the volume
of postal articles handled as well as the increase in the number of Brunet and e-
Speed subscribers.
The Real Estate and Ownership of Dwellings sub-sector recorded growth of 3.1
percent year-on-year in Q3 2008 after growing by 1.1 percent in the previous
period. Total mortgages rose by 18.2 percent year-on-year from BND958.0 million
in Q2 2008 to BND1,132.0 million Q3 2008.
The Hotel and Restaurant sub-sector grew by 1.9 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008
after registering a contraction of 5.1 percent year-on-year in the previous quarter.
This was in part due to the increase in the occupancy rates of major hotels from
about 37 percent in Q3 2007 to about 41 percent in Q3 2008. Further, the number of
air passengers grew 18.8 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008.
The non-oil and gas sector prevented GDP growth from sliding down further by
contributing 1.3 pp to the overall GDP growth. This was an improvement of 0.4 pp
Page 6
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Growth contribution
(percentage points)
Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Consumption expenditure was the main driver of growth within domestic demand
in Q3 2008, contributing 2.6 pp. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation
contributed 1.8 pp. Within consumption expenditure, both personal consumption
expenditure and government consumption expenditure contributed 1.3 pp each to
overall demand growth in Q3 2008.
Q2 2008 Q3 2008
percentage points
Page 7
Brunei Economic Bulletin
2.Monetary Development
Money supply
Money supply in Q3 2008 expanded at a faster rate compared to Q2 2008 (Annex
Broad money (M2) increased by
1). Broad money (M2) increased by 23.2 percent year-on-year, compared to 11.6
23.2% and narrow money (M1) up
by 20.0% percent year-on-year in Q2 2008. This translated to an increase in the stock of M2
from BND12,936.6 million at end of September 2007 to BND15,937.6 million at
end of September 2008. The expansion was attributed to an increase in fixed
deposit which rose by 31.3 percent year-on-year, from BND7,393.4 million to
BND9,703.5 million. Savings and others also rose by 3.9 percent year-on-year,
from BND2,603.9 million to BND2,706.6 million.
16000.00
14000.00
12000.00
10000.00
BND million
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
On the liabilities side, the total deposits registered an increase of 24.3 percent from
BND12,141.0 million at end of September 2007 to BND15,093.0 million at end of
September 2008. While time deposits rose by 31.3 percent from BND7,393.0
million to BND9,704.0 million, demand deposits grew by 25.1 percent from
BND2,144.0 million to BND2,682.0 million.
Savings growth was slower in Q3 2008 compared to Q2 2008. Savings rose by 4.8
percent, year-on-year this quarter compared to 4.0 percent year-on-year in Q2
2008. Other liabilities increased by 11.9 percent from BND2,472.0 million to
BND2,765.0 million. On the other hand, liabilities due to bank in Brunei
Darussalam decreased by end of September 2007 from BND303.0 million to
BND241.0 million by end of September 2008. Meanwhile, liabilities outside
Brunei Darussalam declined from BND563.0 million to BND532.0 million during
the same period.
The increase of total loans and advances were contributed by the increase in loans
and advances to economic sectors such as transportation (rose by 6.4 percent from
BND950.0 million by end of September 2007 to BND1,011.0 million); general
commerce sector (by 9.5 percent from BND547.0 million to BND599.0 million);
construction (by 5.7 percent from BND494.0 million to BND522.0 million);
professional services (by 25.4 percent from BND71.0 million to BND89.0 million);
agriculture sector (by 12.9 percent from BND31.0 million to BND35.0 million);
manufacturing sector (by 21.3 percent from BND230.0 million to BND279.0
million) and mortgage (by 18.2 percent from BND958.0 million to BND1,132.0
million) during the same period.
Loans and advances to other sectors registered a downtrend. Loans and advances to
the credit and finance sector decreased by 17.6 percent from BND34.0 million to
BND28.0 million. Personal loans decreased by 9.4 percent from BND2,766.0
million to BND2,506.0 million. The ratio of total loans and advances to total
deposits (Loan-to-deposit ratio) by end of September 2008 declined to 41.1 percent
compared to 50.1 percent by end of September 2007. In other words, the banking
sector in Brunei Darussalam was flushed with funds.
Page 9
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Chart 2.2: Direction of loans and advances (share), end September 2008
3% 1% 1%
11%
24% 31%
40%
20% 69%
Professional Servic es
Ratio of the total NPL to total loans outstanding in September 2008 was 10.4
percent compared to 10.1 percent in September 2007 (Chart 2.4). The 60-90 days
NPL’s classification in September 2008 recorded a ratio of 1.1 percent compared to
0.6 percent in September 2007. The 91-120 days classification registered a ratio of
0.6 percent compared to 0.3 percent in the same period. Meanwhile, the ratio of the
above 120 days classification in September 2008 was 8.7 percent compared to 9.2
percent in September 2007.
Ratio of the total NPLs to total deposits was 4.3 percent compared to 5.0 percent
during the same period.
500
400
BND millio
300
200
100
0
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2007 2008
Page 10
Volume 6 - Issue 3
12
10
0
Total NPL 60-90 days 91-120 days >120 days
Sep-07 Sep-08
Page 11
Brunei Economic Bulletin
3.Public Finance
Overview
Total revenue increased by 71.1
percent year-on-year, while total In Q3 2008, total revenue was recorded at BND3,878.1 million, up from
expenditure down by 25.1 BND2,266.6 million in Q3 2007 (Table 3.1 and Annex 3.1). The total expenditure,
percent. Surplus surged 235.8 on the other hand, was down to BND1,070.9 million in Q3 2008 from BND1,430.6
percent. million in the same quarter last year. This brought a fiscal surplus of BND2,807.2
million in Q3 2008 (Annex 3.2 and Chart 3.4).
The bulk of revenue was generated from the oil and gas sector (Table 3.1). In Q3
2008, the revenue from the oil and gas sector was BND3,658.9 million (94.3
percent). Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas sector revenue contributed BND219.2
million (5.7 percent) to the fiscal coffer. In comparison, the oil and gas sector and
non-oil and gas sector contributed BND2,089.9 million (92.2 percent) and
BND176.8 million (7.8 percent) to the total receipts in Q3 2007, respectively.
Total revenues and expenditures accumulated for the first 9 months of 2008
amounted to BND9,860.6 million and BND4,303.2 million, respectively. There has
been a significant jump in total revenues compared to BND6,149.2 million
registered during the same period in 2007 mainly attributed to the increase in prices
of oil and gas. On the other hand, total accumulated expenditures remained
relatively stable compared to BND4,406.9 million registered during the same period
in 2007.
Total revenue reached 67.8 percent of GDP in Q3 2008 compared to 50.1 percent of
GDP in Q3 2007 (Table 3.1). The oil and gas revenue surged to 64.0 percent of
GDP compared to 46.2 percent of GDP in Q3 2007 as oil and gas revenues
remained very high. The non-oil and gas revenue stood at 3.8 percent of GDP
compared to 3.9 percent of GDP in the same period in 2007. This showed that the
Total revenue reached 67.8% of
GDP in Q3 2008 compared to government’s revenue had benefitted substantially from the high energy prices.
50.1% of GDP in Q3 2007. However, the lower ratio for the non-oil & gas revenue compared to a year ago
indicated that the country’s non-oil & gas industry had not grown over the last one
year.
Table 3.1: Revenue
2007 2008 2008
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 (Jan-Sept)
Oil and Gas revenue (BNDMillion) 2,089.9 2,359.1 2,663.3 2,606.4 3,658.9 8,928.6
Non-Oil and Gas revenue (BNDMillion) 176.8 276.3 540.1 172.8 219.2 932.1
Oil and Gas revenue (% of total revenue) 92.2 89.5 83.1 93.8 94.3 90.5
Non-Oil and Gas (% of total revenue) 7.8 10.5 16.9 6.2 5.7 9.5
Oil and Gas revenue (% of GDP) 46.2 43.1 52.6 54.2 64 56.1
Non-Oil and Gas revenue (% of GDP) 3.9 5.0 10.7 3.4 3.8 5.9
Page 12
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Government revenue
Tax and non-tax revenue, formed
Total revenue comprised of tax and non-tax revenue (Table 3.2). Tax revenue 69.9 and 30.1 percent of the total
accounted for 70.2 percent of the total revenue in Q3 2008 (Chart 3.1). This revenue in Q3 2008, respectively
included taxes on net income and profits, taxes on international trade and taxes on
goods and services The non-tax revenue accounted for the remaining 30.1 percent
and comprised of property income, administrative fees and charges and other non-
tax revenue.
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008
Taxes on international trade (comprised of import duties and export taxes) rose by
22.9 percent from BND29.1 million in Q3 2007 to BND35.8 million. Taxes on
tobacco were down by 8.0 percent from BND4.5 million to BND4.2 million.
Meanwhile, taxes of motor vehicles increased by 22.6 percent from BND15.8
million to BND19.4 million.
Page 13
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 (Jan- Sept)
Taxes on net income and profits 1,512.1 1,681.7 1,741.8 1,787.7 2,669.9 6,199.1
Taxes on goods and services 3.9 5.6 4.7 3.9 4.7 13.3
In Q3 2008, the non-tax revenue contributed 30.1 percent of the total revenue. Non-
tax revenue, comprised mainly of the property income from the oil sector (oil and
gas royalties and dividend paid by oil companies). The contribution of the oil and
gas royalties increased by 53.8 percent from BND233.3 million in Q3 2007 to
BND358.8 million in Q3 2008. Payment of dividend rose by 73.5 percent from
BND410.7 million to BND712.5 million, during the same period.
Meanwhile, the property income from the non-oil and gas sector (other royalties,
rent and interest and others) was up by 147.0 percent from BND12.7 million in Q3
2007 to BND31.4 million in Q3 2008.
Another component of the non-tax revenue is the administrative fees and charges on
sales of goods and fines, which recorded an increase of 0.5 percent (from BND63.9
million in Q3 2007 to BND64.2 million in Q3 2008). This was due to a decline in
receipts from telecom and utilities fees and charges from BND40.8 million to
BND35.8 million. Meanwhile, other non-tax revenue increased from BND 1 million
in Q3 2007 to BND1.1 Million in Q3 2008.
The remaining component of the non-tax revenue, other non-tax revenue, showed a
marginal increase of only BND0.1 million during the same period.
Page 14
Volume 6 - Issue 3
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008
Oil & gas sector Other Administrative fees and charges Other non-tax revenue
2,000.00
1,500.00
BND million
1,000.00
500.00
-
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008
Page 15
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Current expenditure
On a year-on-year basis, the current expenditure was down by 18.2 percent from
BND1,069.2 million in Q3 2007 to BND874.4 million in Q3 2008 (Table 3.3). This
was due to a decrease in charged expenditure by 69.0 percent from BND345.5
million to BND107.1 million (Annex 3.2). Meanwhile, wages & salaries and
OCAR increased by 3.0 percent from BND388.4 million to BND400.2 million and
by 9.5 percent from BND335.2 million to BND367.0 million, respectively. Current
expenditure accounted for 81.6 percent of the total expenditure in Q3 2008
compared to 74.7 percent in Q3 2007
Page 16
Volume 6 - Issue 3
4,500.00
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
BND million
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
-
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008
80.0
70.0
60.0
% of nominal GDP
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008
Revenue (%of GDP) Expendit ure (%of GDP) Fiscal Balance (%of GDP)
Page 17
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Index % Change
Weight (%)
Q3 Q3
No Major Groups Q3 Q2 Q3 2008/ 2008/
2007 2008 2008 Q2 Q3
2008 2007
VIII Medical and Health 1.0 101.6 102.7 102.6 -0.1 1.0
Miscellaneous Goods
X 6.4 107.4 111.5 111.3 -0.2 3.6
and Services
3.0
106
2.3
2.3 105.9 2.5
105
105.1 2.0
Index (2002=100)
104.6
Y-O-Y %Change
1.2
102.7 102.7
103 1.0
102.2
0.5
102
0.4
0.2 0.0
101
-0.5
-0.6
100 -1.0
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q308
CPI %Change
Page 18
Volume
Volume x6 -- Issue
Issue x3
Transport 0.5
The increase in prices within the group of Household Goods, Services and
Operation averaged at 2.5 percent. Within this group, all section indices except for
Household Furnishings posted higher prices. Household Operation, which
comprises of items such as washing detergent; plastic bucket; and plugs, registered
the highest increase of 5.0 percent, year-on-year. Meanwhile, Other Household
Services, which comprises of dry cleaning; rubbish collection; and grass cutting
services, rose 4.9 percent.
The 2.3 percent increase in the major group of Transport was mostly due to a 3.1
percent increase in the cost of purchasing vehicles. Another significant contributor
was the cost of airfare, which rose by 6.2 percent, year-on-year.
Page 19
Brunei Economic Bulletin
The index of Clothing and Footwear rose by 1.0 percent, year-on-year. All the sub-
groups under Clothing and Footwear posted higher indices, and this could be partly
attributed to prices rebounding after the Mid-Year Sales (22 June – 3 August).
The index of Medical and Health also increased 1.0 percent, year-on-year. Prices of
Proprietary Medicines and Supplies and Therapeutical Appliances increased 2.1 and
1.7 percent, respectively. However, the price of Medical Treatment fell by 0.7
percent.
Higher prices of Housing Insurance (5.7 percent) and Maintenance and Minor
Repairs (2.6 percent) raised the index of Housing, Water, Electricity and
Maintenance by 0.5 percent.
The only major index that fell in Q3 2008 is for Communication, by 0.2 percent.
This was due mainly to a 1.0 percent fall in the cost of Instruments including
Accessories.
Finally, the index for Education was unchanged. An increase of 0.4 percent in the
cost of School and Other Fees were mitigated by fall in the cost of School
Textbooks and Stationery and Computer and Accessories (1.3 and 0.7 percent,
respectively).
Page 20
Volume
Volume x6 -- Issue
Issue x3
5.External Trade
Overall Trend
Total external trade (defined as exports plus imports) expanded by 45.0 percent The Size of Brunei Darussalam’s
year-on-year in Q3 2008 after a 29.6 percent growth in Q2 2008 (Table 5.1). It external trade was up from
amounted to BND5,303.2 million in Q3 2008 compared to BND3,656.9 million in BND3,659.9 million in Q3 2007 to
BND5,303.2 million in Q3 2008
Q3 2007.
Table 5.1: External trade
% change in
BND million
Q3 2008
Exports 2,604.5 2,716.3 2,709.4 3,526.1 3,507.0 3,716.5 4,137.3 11.3 52.7
Domestic Exports 2,547.8 2,654.8 2,633.2 3,457.6 3,458.8 3,655.2 4,094.2 12.0 55.5
Re-Exports 56.7 61.5 76.2 68.5 48.2 61.3 43.1 -29.7 -43.4
Imports 689.7 770.0 947.5 758.7 777.2 800.9 1,165.9 45.6 23.1
Balance of Trade 1,914.8 1,946.3 1,761.9 2,767.4 2,729.8 2,915.6 2,971.4 1.9 68.6
Total external trade 3,294.2 3,486.3 3,656.9 4,284.8 4,284.2 4,517.4 5,303.2 17.4 45.0
2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
% change
Total external trade -8.6 -7.7 -4.9 20.7 30.1 29.6 45.0
Total exports grew by 52.7 percent year-on-year in Q3 2008, primarily driven by Higher export receipt was primarily
higher energy prices (Table 5.2). Imports also grew by another 23.1 percent. driven by higher energy prices
Exports
The Q3 2008 export proceeds of BND4,137.3 million were mainly generated from
three main commodities: oil, LNG and garments.
Oil exports, which accounted for 53.1 percent of the total exports in Q3 2008,
remained Brunei Darussalam’s leading source of foreign exchange receipts (Chart The volume of oil export dropped
5.1 and Table 5.3). Exports revenue from this commodity recorded a surge of 24.9 while the prices of oil shot up
percent to BND2,194.9 million in Q3 2008 as oil prices continued to rise since the
Page 21
Brunei Economic Bulletin
first quarter of 2007. The weighted average crude oil price for Brunei Darussalam
was at USD126.2 per barrel in Q3 2008 compared to USD77.4 per barrel in Q3
2007. The total value of oil exports increased year-on-year despite a substantial
decline in oil exports volume. It fell by 19.4 percent (from 164,077 barrels per day
in Q3 2007 to 132,203 barrels per day in Q3 2008).
LNG, the second largest source of foreign exchange receipt (45.2 percent in terms
Export proceeds from LNG rose. of share) rose by 125.1 percent to BND1,869.4 million in Q3 2008 from BND830.6
Both the volume and price of million a year ago (Table 5.3). The increase was attributed to both higher LNG
LNG rose in Q3 2008
prices and exports volume. LNG prices stood at USD14.2 per MMBtu in Q3 2008
compared to USD6.0 per MMBtu in Q3 2007. Exports volume grew by 4.8 percent
to 1,060,973 MMBtu per day in Q3 2008 compared with 1,012,803 MMBtu per day
in Q3 2007.
Garments made up around 0.7 percent of total exports (Chart 5.1). Its exports
Production of garments fell by 4.1 proceeds declined by 34.2 percent on the back of lower garment production from
percent
523,990 dozen in Q3 2007 to 502,656 dozen in Q3 2008.
The remaining 1.1 percent of Brunei Darussalam’s total export consisted of re-
export of Food and Beverages and Tobacco, Crude Materials Inedible, Mineral
Fuels, Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats, Chemicals, Manufactured Goods,
Machinery and Transport Equipment, Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles and
Miscellaneous Transactions. Re-export of Machinery and Transport Equipment
made up of the biggest share at 62.6 percent of the total re-export value.
Others, 1.1%
Garments, 0.7%
LNG, 45.2%
Crude Oil, 53.1%
Page 22
Volume 6 - Issue 3
% change in
(BND million)
Q3 2008
Japan remained the dominant export market for Brunei Darussalam accounting for
41.9 percent of total export, followed by Indonesia (21.9 percent), South Korea
(15.3 percent) and Australia (14.9 percent).
Imports
Brunei Darussalam’s total imports in Q3 2008 stood at BND1,165.9 million (Table Most of the country’s import
5.5). Machinery & Transport Equipments, contributed 48.2 percent to Brunei comprised Of Mineral Fuels,
Lubricants & Related Materials,
Darussalam’s total imports. In Q3 2008, its imports bill stood at BND562.2 Machinery and Transport
million. In comparison, the Q3 2007 figure was BND446.4 million. Equipments and Manufactured
Goods. These three groups
Imports of Manufactured Goods in Q3 2008 rose by 34.8 percent, year-on-year. accounted for almost 82 percent of
the total import.
This group of commodity accounted for 19.4 percent of the total imports. Food and
Live Animals accounted for 10.9 percent of the total imports. The value was
BND127.4 million. Imports of this commodity group increased by 12.5 percent
year-on-year.
Page 23
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles accounted for another 8.0 percent of the total
imports. In Q3 2008, the bill was BND92.8 million. Miscellaneous Manufactured
Articles imports, however, decreased by 17.9 percent, year-on-year.
Accounting for 6.1 percent of the aggregate imports bill was payments for
Chemicals, which, in Q3 2008 amounted to BND71.6 million or grew by 19.7
percent, year-on-year (Chart 5.2).
% change in
(BND million)
Q3 2008
Food & Live Animals 113.2 98.7 117.9 127.4 8.1 12.5
Ot hers, 7.4%
Chemicals, 6.1%
Page 24
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Imports Market
Singapore was the biggest source of imports in Q3 2008, accounting for 32.0 Singapore, with 32.0 percent
share, was the country’s biggest
percent share. Its imports value increased by 14.3 percent from BND326.4 million
source of imports
to BND373.2 in Q3 2008. Machinery and Transport Equipment was the major
import commodity from Singapore.
Peninsular Malaysia fell to the second largest source of imports in Q3 2008 with
15.3 percent share (Table 5.6). Food and Live Animals was the biggest imports
commodity.
The rest of Brunei Darussalam’s import came from U.S.A (9.9 percent), China (6.5
percent) and Japan (6.0 percent).
Table 5.6: The main source of import
Page 25
Brunei Economic Bulletin
In July 2008, the weighted average crude oil price (WACOP) of Brunei Darussalam
July 2008 marked the period
when Brunei Darussalam’s was USD142.7 per barrel, which was the highest price ever recorded for Brunei
weighted average crude oil price Darussalam. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, it grew by 5.8 percent compared
reached USD142.7 per barrel to USD134.9 per barrel in June 2008.
The soaring prices in July 2008 were contributed by a meagre Q2 2008 OECD
stock build and tight global distillate balance. Crude disruption in the North Sea,
Nigeria and Iraq were also other contributing factors to the oil price increase.
Crude oil price in August 2008 Prices in August 2008 decreased 13.9 percent (m-o-m) to USD122.8 per barrel. The
fell by 13.9 percent on a month- average world price of oil (all countries spot price FOB weighted by estimated
on-month basis export volume) for August 2008 was USD114.0 per barrel. The increase in crude
supplies from OPEC, weaker OECD demand and the first seasonal US Gulf
hurricanes passed without anything more than precautionary shut-ins that had led to
the decrease in oil prices in August 2008.
September 2008 saw a further decline in the crude oil price by 10.5 percent to
Crude oil prices continued their
downward slide in September USD109.9 per barrel compared to the August 2008 price. The decline was due to a
2008 falling oil demand by the United States and other developed nations amid global
economic slowdown and financial crisis.
140 16
120 14
12
100
USD/MMBtu
USD/Barrel
10
80
60
6
40
4
20 2
0 0
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Crude Oil Price 65.0 76.7 77.4 96.5 100.2 128.9 126.2
LNG Price 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.5 10.1 11.8 14.2
Page 26
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Chart 6.2: Brunei Darussalam's Weighted Average Crude Oil Price versus
World's Weighted Average Crude Oil Price*
140
130
120
110
US D /B a rre l
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
* Note: Quarterly all countries spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume.
Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister’s Office and Energy Information Administration
As a whole, the average crude oil production in Q3 2008 stood at 168,213 bpd,
reflecting a 11.7 percent decrease year-on-year (Chart 6.3). The decline was
contributed by a below satisfactory production level from the existing wells.
Chart 6.3: Brunei Darussalam's Average Crude Oil and LNG Production
210,000 1,150,000
1,100,000
200,000
1,050,000
b a r r e ls p e r d a y
M M B tu p e r d a y
190,000
1,000,000
180,000
950,000
170,000
900,000
160,000
850,000
150,000 800,000
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Crude Oil Production 202,441 190,615 190,570 191,853 192,633 159,811 168,213
LNG Production 1,038,070 950,952 1,045,870 1,050,814 1,096,669 890,684 1,033,951
Page 27
Brunei Economic Bulletin
LNG price
LNG price registered a 136.5 percent increase in Q3 2008 year-on-year, from
LNG price reached USD14.2 per
MMBtu in Q3 2008 USD6.0 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in Q3 2007 to USD14.2 per
MMBtu (Chart 6.1). On a q-o-q basis, LNG price increased by 20.4 percent from
USD11.8 in Q2 2008.
During this period, two LNG cargoes were sold in the spot market at a higher price
Two LNG cargoes were sold at
USD20.0 per MMBtu in the spot levels reaching USD20.0 per MMBtu, which resulted in the highest cargo value
market, which was the highest ever achieved by Brunei Darussalam.
cargo value ever achieved in
Brunei Darussalam
LNG production
LNG production in Q3 2008 was registered at 1,033,951 MMBtu per day (Annex
6.4). This translated to a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percent (and a q-o-q increase
of 16.1 percent). In comparison, the average LNG production was 1,045,870
MMBtu per day in Q3 2007 and 890,684 MMBtu per day in Q2 2008 (Chart 6.3).
Page 28
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Outlook
The economy in Q3 2008 had shown mixed results. In terms of output dynamics,
the implementation of National Development Plan’s projects had not picked up
pace as expected, therefore limiting the amount of capital expenditure being
injected into the economy. Oil production had been low, amid rising oil prices to
reach a very high level ever seen. Although the high oil prices had been very
favorable to Brunei Darussalam fiscal coffer, the average oil production in Q3 2008
of 168,213 barrels per day (ie, represented an almost 12 percent decline, year-on-
year) had pulled down the country’s overall GDP growth rate.
There were also signs that the banking sector had not been very successful in
channeling funds to businesses. Loan growth had been much lower compared to
growth in savings/deposits, leading to a fall in the loan-to deposit ratio (LDR).
Meanwhile, non-performing loans figure (in proportion to total loan balances) had
stayed at around 10 percent. This not only reflected a banking system that was
flushed with funds (ie, too much liquidity within the banking system), but also weak
lending activity - arguably due to sluggish business environment.
Given the negative growth rate in three consecutive quarters of 2008, it is very
likely that Brunei Darussalam’s economy will experience a strong negative growth
in 2008.
On the price front, situation had not been particularly encouraging, too. Price
pressures continued to build up and resulted in a year-to-date (ie, January to
September 2008) inflation rate of 2.2 percent. This was above the earlier forecast of
between 1-2 percent for 2008.
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Brunei Economic Bulletin
Special Article I
STATUS AND UPDATES ON ICT IN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
Over the decade, ICT in Brunei Darussalam has undergone tremendous changes in
terms of policy and regulatory reforms, a significant increase in the number of ICT
service providers and the provision of ICT services as well as progressive
development of ICT initiatives.
ICT has been identified as one of the key catalysts for sustainable socio-economic
development. The ICT sector was introduced for the first time in the 8th National
Development Plan (NDP) and will be further promoted and prioritized in RKN
2007-2012. The focus will be towards enhancing ICT capacity-building including
infrastructure and human resource as well as full integration in both government
services and business processes. ICT capacity-building will support government
efforts towards achieving a Knowledge-Based Economy (KBE).
ICT progress and development achieved thus far in Brunei Darussalam is described
as follows:-
Telbru Berhad which provides basic telephony and a range of value-added services
such as leased-line services, ADSL broadband, VoIP and pre-paid calling cards.
DST Group Sdn Berhad, a private company based in Brunei Darussalam which
operates a 3G mobile network and provides some value-added services; VoIP and
internet access via 3G.
B-mobile Communications Sdn Berhad (a joint venture between Telbru Bhd and
QAF Comserve) which operates a 3G mobile network and provides VoIP and
internet access via 3G.
BAG Networks (a joint venture between the Government of Brunei and Accenture,
a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company) is
a company that provides IT solutions and services.
IFB was officially formed on August 5th 2007 as an initiative by BAG Networks
Sdn Berhad. IFB is a non-profit, national body dedicated to growing and nurturing
the Information Technology and Communications Industry in Brunei Darussalam.
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Volume 6 - Issue 3
ITPSS Pte4 Ltd, an IT security company, has been appointed as the agency
responsible for all network security matters with respect to the e-Government in
Brunei Darussalam. It has also been appointed as BruCERT – the first national
Computer Emergency Response Team for the country. BrueCERT provides
incident response, prevention, mitigation plans and security training for its
members, national alerting services and advisories, and a central report and
coordination point for security incidents throughout the nation.
BROADBAND
Currently, Telbru and DST are offering broadband services of speeds from 512
kbps to 1Mbps. The 3G technology employed by mobile phone operators (DST and
B-Mobile) also enables the public to access the internet of up to 7.2 Mbps.
With the consent of His Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei
Darussalam, Brunei Darussalam has agreed to participate in building together the
Asia-America Gateway or AAG submarine cable network linking Brunei
Darussalam to its neighbours in Southeast Asia. The AAG’s designed capacity of
up to 1.92 Terabit per second of data bandwidth is tailored to meet the forecasted
explosive growth in bandwidth requirements.
The increased capacity will cater for the new technologies in broadband
applications such as IP, video and other multimedia services. AAG will also
improve internet and e-commerce traffic.
This project represents a strategic investment that will strengthen the security and
safeguard the interest of Brunei Darussalam by ensuring a secure and continuous
communication with the outside world. In other words, it serves as an alternative or
a back-up to the existing submarine cable (South East Asia Middle East West
Europe, SEA-ME-WE3).
It is also in line with the Ministry of Communications’ mission ‘to provide a safe,
efficient, accessible and secure communications so as to enhance national
competitiveness and quality of life in the Knowledge-Based Economy’.
The final completion of the AAG in mid-2009 will enable Brunei Darussalam to
meet the expected growth in the country’s international bandwidth with the
development of various broadband applications such as IP-based data, video and
other multimedia services.
portal.
• Focusing on K-economy – the direction for all business dealings with ICT
cutting across all sectors i.e. banking, logistics, transportation and governance.
Ministry of Communications
E-Mincom Service Portal
An integrated service portal for hosting business-to-consumer applications
offered by the Ministry and its departments namely Land Transport, Ports,
Marine, Postal Services and Civil Aviation departments.
This portal is also designed to cater for other Ministries or Departments who wish
to embark on their own e-services by riding on the e-Mincom service portal
platform.
The common services and process archetypes include Single Sign-On, Bill
Presentation and Secured Online Payment and integration to banks’ payment
gateway.
The system also integrates with the Inspection Station at the Vehicle Inspection
Centre (VIC) for uploads of vehicle data and downloads vehicle inspection
results.
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Volume 6 - Issue 3
Ports Department
E-Ports (Ports Information System)
The scope of this project is to provide an alternative access point for customers
and port users to conduct activities with the Ports Department via an online
website providing their services online. The objective of the project is to increase
tonnage throughput; to minimize customer turn-around time; to enhance service
quality and security; and to increase revenue.
It will carry out the applications and works for the ports’ system namely
Conventional Terminal Management System (CTMS) and Container
Management System (CMS) as well as building the interface between both
systems to exchange relevant data and integration to the e-Mincom portal.
Marine Department
E-Marine – Marine Management System
The purpose of this project is for the supply of an integrated management system
with workflow and online capabilities together with associated implementation
services that will effectively enable the Marine Department to improve its work
practices in relation to its needs, and deliver genuine benefits and savings to the
Marine Department.
The system provides adequate resilience and security against tampering of data
as well as generates all necessary reports to reflect the activities of every user of
the system and reports for purposes of managing the cash and stock of every
user and the Post Office as a whole.
Therefore, the Airport Management System can control the work order processes
for routine maintenance with fast response maintenance and periodic preventive
maintenance. The process can also provide a full range of diagnostic tests and
can expedite work order entry effectively.
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Volume 6 - Issue 3
The Ministry of Communications has been appointed the lead agency for the
EGBS implementation which is fully provided, developed and set up by Telbru
Sendirian Berhad.
All ministries and departments of the Brunei Government require a total of 929
sites of EGBW connectivity which has been implemented by fiber optic (77%),
copper cable (21%) as well as wireless access (2%). Overall, 90% of these
required sites are now considered operational and ready for connection.
2005: B-Mobile created as a joint venture between Telbru and QAF Comserve.
Granted a license to operate a W-CDMA network and begins operations as
the competitor to incumbent mobile operator DST (and incumbent fixed-
line operator Telbru).
2006: The Telecommunication Order entered into force, giving AiTi full power to
grant licenses; Telecoms Act 1952 repealed. Government
telecommunications department (JTB) corporatized as Telbru, a public
limited company registered under the Brunei Darussalam Companies Act
and 100% owned by the Brunei Government.
2008: Transfer of Authority under the Broadcasting Act (Chapter 180) from the
Prime Minister’s Office to the Ministry of Communications.
Page 35
Brunei Economic Bulletin
The transfer of the Act will mean that all regulatory functions with respect to
broadcasting such as issuance of the broadcasting licenses, collection of
revenues as well as monitoring and enforcement will now be carried out by the
Ministry of Communications. With the enforcement of this transfer, the public
will only need to deal with one organization.
Government media agencies like Radio Television Brunei (RTB) and the
Information Department are not affected by the transfer and will remain under
the administration of the Prime Minister’s Office.
The main aim of the transfer is to monitor the broadcasting and communication
rules as a whole under one supervising ministry (convergence at the Ministry
level) with better fundamentals and results as well as to improve and expand the
broadcasting industry, including multimedia to be the pride of the nation.
AiTi the regulator and developer of ICT in Brunei Darussalam has opened up
tenders for operating broadband wireless access in Brunei Darussalam and the
rollout of WBA technologies is planned as early as 2009.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Fiber optics has been rolled out to ministries and business premises to
provide high speed broadband connection. Brunei Darussalam is also looking
into the prospects of deploying fiber optics in delivering high speed
broadband services to households.
There have been plans for a nationwide wireless blanket rollout. The Ministry
of Communications has formulated policy directives on the licensing of
wireless broadband access operators.
Page 37
Brunei Economic Bulletin
ICT LEGISLATION
Below are gazette documents ruling ICT in Brunei Darussalam.
Broadcasting Legislation
Broadcasting Act
Others:
Electronic Transaction Act
Table 1: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM ACHIEVEMENTS (AS OF DECEMBER 2007)
Page 38
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Special Article II
Opportunities in Brunei Halal Industry
The global value of the Halal Industry is estimated to be worth USD560 billion,
with USD150 billion of the portion being in the food sectors. The spending in the
Halal industry is expected to grow at a rate of 2 percent annually. The Halal
industry covers food and non-food products, as well as services that cater for
logistics, packaging, branding, marketing, travel and the hospitality and financial
sectors.
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Brunei Economic Bulletin
MIPR also receives strong collaboration from the Ministry of Religious Affairs and
Ministry of Health in developing the Brunei Halal Brand initiative. Through this
initiative, Brunei Darussalam has its sights on becoming one of the major players
in the global Halal Industry, both in terms of Halal food production and
certification, with the bold aim of catering Halal food and other Halal products for
Muslims worldwide. The global market can be assured that Brunei Darussalam
Halal certification is very well known for its stringent surveillance and
enforcement measures.
The Halal product categories that the Brunei Halal Brand intends to focus on are:
Food products; pharmaceuticals; and cosmetics. Opportunities also exist in the
areas of: supply of raw materials; production and manufacturing; packaging;
storage; transportation; and other services
The existing legislation which has been guiding the Halal certification processes
includes the following:
Page 40
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Brunei Darussalam.
The annual International Halal Product Expo (IHPE), organized by the Ministry of
Industry and Primary Resources in collaboration with the Ministry of Religious
Affairs and Ministry of Health serves as a venue for providing the platform for
collaboration between the stakeholders in the Halal industry. With its strong Islamic
credentials, Brunei Darussalam aspires to be a significant player in the global Halal
industry and furthermore to strengthen the supporting infrastructure.
Page 41
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Fifth, Tourism – the structural landscaping for the ATP will be in the form of a
botanical garden which will be a major visitor attraction. In addition, there will be a
health and therapeutics spa, offering products derived from the research carried out
in the ATP
Opportunities in Agribusiness
Brunei Darussalam places big importance on agriculture, which is pivotal in
ensuring security of food supply. In this respect, the Department of Agriculture
actively promotes agricultural development as well as facilitates outsourcing of
agricultural commodities and food supply. Although much has been achieved in the
primary production of chicken, eggs, vegetables and fruits, the potential in
downstream secondary industries, particularly processing of food, has not been
exploited. The secondary industry offer many opportunities, such as the processing
of value-added products for the huge consumer markets in ASEAN. As such, there
is a need to develop agribusiness, which has a relative strength in the secondary
industry of processing of value-added products, eyeing selectively for the regional
and international markets.
Page 42
Volume 6 - Issue 3
Food packaging and design manufacturing There are about 200 SMEs actively involved in Opportunities to set up a medium
the agro-food processing industry producing size manufacturing plant that will
Various prototype container like materials various types of agro-based food products. The be able to cater the existing food
such as tetra pack, glass and plastic demand for food packaging and design is processing market
bottles, cans, paper and cardboard pack, considerably high to support this industry. A
flexible films pack, etc. vital study to identify packaging materials and
designs is required for products penetration to
the domestic and export market
Poultry-based and beef products Various types of frozen poultry and meat There are opportunities to expand
products such as sausages, nuggets, balls, and develop new/niche products
burgers and frankfurters and other coated other than the existing products.
poultry meat or beef are well accepted. Supply of raw materials is limited,
Convenient canned foods in traditional recipes but outsourcing is possible at cheap
are also available price. However quality has to be
monitored and controlled
Tropical fruits and vegetable products Many successful ventures are operated in small Potential industry sectors include
scale. Snacks, pickles and sauces are common bakery, sauces, snacks, pickles,
products accepted in the market. Most of these beverages and frozen food
products are imported. Beverages such as sweet
orange, green juice or mixed tropical fruit juices
are potential products
The fish processing sector is however still at a relatively small scale despite the big
numbers of processors and joint-venture companies involved in the production of a
variety of fisheries products. These products include frozen fish, crackers, fish ball
and cakes, fish nuggets, shrimp pastes, marinated fish and dried fish. The
Department of Fisheries is also encouraging the involvement of foreign companies
to form a joint venture company with local entrepreneurs in further developing the
fish processing sectors into larger enterprises. Seafood products intended for
international markets are given Health Attestation certificates prior to exports to
meet the importing country's requirement.
Page 43
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Annex - Monetary
Annex 2.1: Money supply BND Million
2007 2008
Jun Sept Dec Jan Feb Mar Jun Sept
Assets 14,892 15,479 16,297 15,690 15,284 16,066 16,582 18,631
Cash 143 158 205 193 179 163 166 146
Due from bank 6,600 6,959 7,777 7,124 6,679 7,495 7,837 9,727
in BD 110 278 352 250 93 139 290 310
outside BD 6,490 6,681 7,425 6,874 6,586 7,356 7,547 9,417
Loans and Advances 5,639 6,081 6,032 6,051 6,025 6,004 6,042 6,200
Investment 1,204 1,251 1,221 1,295 1,355 1,325 1,403 1,412
Other assets 1,306 1,030 1,062 1,027 1,046 1,079 1,134 1,146
Liabilities 14,892 15,479 16,297 15,690 15,282 16,065 16,583 18,631
Deposits 11,780 12,141 12,827 12,437 12,101 12,917 13,194 15,093
Demand 2,340 2,144 2,537 2,244 2,271 2,430 2,538 2,682
Time 6,841 7,393 7,558 7,473 7,070 7,691 7,932 9,704
Saving 2,599 2,604 2,732 2,720 2,760 2,796 2,724 2,707
Due to bank 582 866 849 590 503 477 643 773
in BD 101 303 363 188 84 130 285 241
outside BD 481 563 486 402 419 347 358 532
Other liabilities 2,530 2,472 2,621 2,663 2,678 2,671 2,746 2,765
Source: Ministry of Finance
Page 44
Volume 6 - Issue 3
2007 2008
Sectors Jun Sept Dec Mar Jun Sept
Loans to business
Agriculture 31 31 31 32 35 35
Credit and Finance 37 34 40 23 24 28
Manufacturing 185 230 179 178 160 279
Transportation 524 950 972 979 992 1011
Construction 521 494 495 484 527 522
General Commerce 533 547 561 573 567 599
Professional Services 75 71 79 78 88 89
Sub-Total 1906 2357 2357 2347 2393 2563
Loans to consumer
Personal loans 2817 2766 2661 2603 2549 2506
Mortgage 915 958 1014 1053 1105 1132
Sub-Total 3732 3724 3675 3656 3654 3638
Source: Ministry of Finance
2007 2008
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Page 45
Brunei Economic Bulletin
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Total Revenue 2,071.71 2,266.64 2,635.40 3,203.39 2,779.15 3,878.09
Oil & Gas production companies 1,165.08 1,445.96 1,678.76 1,739.23 1,728.87 2,587.65
Memo items
Oil & gas sector revenue 1,849.16 2,089.87 2,359.14 2,663.32 2,606.38 3,658.93
Non-oil & gas revenue 222.55 176.77 276.26 540.07 172.77 219.16
Oil & Gas % (share) 89.3 92.2 89.5 83.1 93.8 94.3
Source: Ministry of Finance
Page 46
Brunei
VolumeEconomic
6 - Issue 3Bulletin
Budget Surplus/ Deficit 893.90 836.00 1,255.30 1,183.89 1,566.38 2,807.17 5,557.44
Source: Ministry of Finance
Page 47
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Q-O-Q % Y-O-Y %
Percentage Index change change
weights Q3 2008 / Q3 2008 /
Q3 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Q2 2008 Q3 2007
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.8 104.2 105.1 109.6 4.3 5.2
Rice and Cereal Products 4.4 102.9 107.6 111.2 3.3 8.1
Meat and Meat Products 3.3 113.2 116.5 114.9 -1.4 1.5
Seafood and Seafood Products 3.9 94.3 96.0 99.8 3.9 5.8
Dairy Products and Eggs 2.2 124.4 130.5 132.6 1.6 6.6
Cooking Oils and Fats 0.5 128.7 175.6 178.7 1.8 38.9
Vegetables 2.1 98.4 99.2 98.6 -0.6 0.2
Fruits 1.5 101.3 99.5 99.6 0.1 -1.7
Sugar, Sugar Preserves and Confectionery 1.0 115.9 116.9 119.2 2.0 2.8
Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.7 101.1 108.2 110.1 1.8 8.9
Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.5 102.8 103.3 105.0 1.6 2.1
Other Foods 2.4 96.0 97.9 99.2 1.3 3.3
Food/Drink Away From Home 5.5 101.9 105.9 107.5 1.5 5.5
Clothing and Footwear 5.6 89.1 92.6 90.0 -2.8 1.0
Ready-Made Clothing and Accessories 3.2 93.0 96.4 93.4 -3.1 0.4
Materials for Male/Female 0.8 79.5 86.9 80.9 -6.9 1.8
Wedding Dress, Accessories and Rental 0.1 92.6 89.1 96.0 7.7 3.7
Tailoring Charges 0.7 95.3 95.8 96.4 0.6 1.2
Haberdasheries 0.1 88.0 88.5 88.5 0.0 0.6
Footwear 0.8 77.5 80.6 79.1 -1.9 2.1
Housing, Water, Electricity and Maintenance 8.8 96.7 96.8 97.2 0.4 0.5
Accommodation 3.9 92.8 92.8 93.8 1.1 1.1
Fuel, Water and Electricity 4.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Household Goods, Services and Operation 8.6 93.1 95.3 95.4 0.1 2.5
Household Goods, Services and Operation 8.6 93.1 95.3 95.4 0.1 2.5
Transport 22.5 107.0 108.5 109.5 0.9 2.3
Private Road Transport 2.0 104.5 106.2 106.4 0.2 1.8
Public Transport 0.6 101.3 101.3 101.3 0.0 0.0
Air Transport 1.9 135.6 135.9 144.0 6.0 6.2
Communication 5.5 88.3 88.2 88.1 0.1 -0.2
Communication 5.5 88.3 88.2 88.1 0.1 -0.2
Education 4.7 98.0 98.1 98.0 -0.1 0.0
Education 4.7 98.0 98.1 98.0 -0.1 0.0
Medical and Health 1.0 101.6 102.7 102.6 -0.1 1.0
Medical and Health 1.0 101.6 102.7 102.6 -0.1 1.0
Recreation and Entertainment 8.1 121.1 124.6 127.1 2.0 5.0
Recreation 1.5 83.6 83.6 83.9 0.4 0.4
Hobbies and Other Miscellaneous Expenditure 6.6 129.7 134.0 137.0 2.2 5.6
Miscellaneous Goods and Services 6.4 107.4 111.5 111.3 -0.2 3.6
Cigarettes 0.7 103.3 103.3 103.3 0.0 0.0
Domestic Services 2.9 103.6 103.6 103.6 0.0 0.0
Personal Care 1.6 99.8 103.1 103.5 0.4 3.7
Personal Effects and Other Personal Goods 1.0 137.3 159.0 154.9 -2.6 12.8
Miscellaneous Expenses 0.2 97.7 97.8 105.4 7.8 7.9
Page 48
Brunei
VolumeEconomic
6 - Issue 3Bulletin
Unit - USD/Barrel
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Jan 25.2 26.2 19.7 30.0 32.7 42.0 67.6 58.1 98.4
Feb 27.4 27.3 20.2 31.0 36.2 48.8 68.6 67.0 97.0
Mar 28.5 26.8 23.0 33.4 38.5 58.9 67.4 70.5 104.8
Apr 25.8 27.8 24.8 27.7 37.2 59.2 73.8 72.8 121.2
May 29.4 29.0 25.7 27.2 39.4 51.9 77.0 78.0 129.6
Jun 31.2 28.1 24.6 27.1 37.8 54.2 71.8 76.4 134.9
Jul 31.4 26.0 26.3 30.0 41.1 58.2 73.2 76.9 142.7
Aug 31.7 24.9 27.9 30.4 47.6 67.2 76.0 72.0 122.8
Sep 35.4 25.0 28.6 29.4 49.6 70.6 72.1 82.0 109.9
Average crude oil price for the year 29.7 24.7 25.3 30.2 41.8 52.5 69.5 79.1
Average crude oil price Q1 27.0 26.7 20.9 33.4 35.6 50.3 67.9 65.0 100.2
Average crude oil price Q2 28.5 28.2 25.0 27.3 38.2 55.2 74.2 76.7 128.9
Average crude oil price Q3 32.8 25.3 27.6 29.3 46.3 65.3 73.7 77.4 126.2
Average crude oil price Q4 31.1 19.2 28.0 32.0 46.7 60.4 62.4 96.5
Average crude oil price 1H 27.7 27.5 23.0 30.3 36.9 52.5 71.1 70.8 114.0
Average crude oil price 2H 29.2 23.2 27.5 30.7 46.5 62.9 66.4 86.8
Jan 84.7 88.3 66.2 101.0 110.2 141.3 227.5 195.8 331.4
Feb 92.1 91.8 67.9 104.0 121.9 164.4 230.8 225.7 326.5
Mar 95.9 90.2 77.4 113.0 129.5 198.3 227.0 237.3 353.0
Apr 86.9 93.4 83.3 93.2 125.3 199.3 248.5 245.2 408.0
May 99.0 97.6 86.6 91.5 132.6 174.5 259.3 262.7 436.5
Jun 105.1 94.4 82.8 91.1 127.3 182.4 241.8 257.2 454.1
Jul 105.8 87.5 88.6 101.0 138.3 195.8 246.5 258.9 480.3
Aug 106.7 83.8 93.7 102.0 160.1 226.2 255.9 242.4 413.5
Sep 119.0 84.0 96.4 98.8 166.9 237.7 242.8 276.1 370.1
Average index for the year 100.0 83.0 85.3 102.0 140.8 176.8 234.0 266.3
Average index for Q1 90.8 90.0 70.2 113.0 119.8 169.2 228.5 218.9 337.2
Average index for Q2 95.8 95.0 84.2 92.0 128.6 185.8 249.8 258.2 434.1
Average index for Q3 110.3 85.1 92.9 98.7 155.9 219.9 248.1 260.6 424.9
Average index for Q4 104.8 64.6 94.3 108.0 157.1 203.4 210.1 324.9
Average index for 1H 93.1 92.4 77.2 102.0 124.2 176.8 239.4 238.4 383.8
Average index for 2H 98.2 78.1 92.6 103.0 156.5 211.7 223.6 292.3
Page 49
Brunei Economic Bulletin
Unit - USD/MMBtu
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Jan 4.2 4.7 3.8 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.7 9.3
Feb 4.4 4.5 3.7 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.7 10.0
Mar 4.4 4.3 3.7 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.7 10.9
Apr 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.7 4.7 5.5 6.0 5.6 12.0
May 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.7 4.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 11.8
Jun 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 11.6
Jul 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 12.6
Aug 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 13.4
Sep 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 5.1 6.3 6.0 6.0 16.1
Average price of LNG for the year 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.7 5.7 6.3
Average price of LNG Q1 4.3 4.5 3.8 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.7 10.1
Average price of LNG Q2 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.7 4.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 12.8
Average price of LNG Q3 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 5.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 14.2
Average price of LNG Q4 4.8 4.3 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.0 7.5
Average price of LNG 1H 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.5 5.8 5.8 11.3
Average price of LNG 2H 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.9 6.0 6.3
Jan 92.1 103.8 84.3 99.7 102.4 115.0 124.3 126.8 204.7
Feb 96.5 99.8 81.6 100.3 103.3 114.6 125.2 125.6 219.8
Mar 97.6 95.7 82.6 103.2 103.8 114.9 126.6 125.3 240.2
Apr 100.0 97.4 86.8 104.5 103.3 121.1 131.9 124.1 263.6
May 97.6 96.4 85.4 103.0 104.6 126.3 131.9 132.4 259.9
Jun 97.2 97.2 94.8 100.5 103.7 129.8 132.1 132.0 255.9
Jul 99.2 98.1 93.3 97.4 108.8 132.3 132.3 132.4 278.8
Aug 100.3 98.0 97.2 97.9 110.4 134.5 132.4 132.4 296.1
Sep 101.2 98.8 96.7 98.3 112.4 138.0 132.7 132.5 354.8
Average Index for the Year 100.0 97.4 92.1 100.2 107.4 125.1 125.3 138.9
Average Index for Q1 95.5 99.7 82.9 101.1 103.1 114.8 125.4 125.9 222.4
Average Index for Q2 98.4 97.1 88.8 102.7 103.9 125.7 131.9 129.2 281.4
Average Index for Q3 100.2 98.3 95.6 97.8 110.5 135.0 132.5 132.4 313.1
Average Index for Q4 106.2 94.5 99.5 98.9 112.2 125.7 132.2 166.0
Average Index for 1H 96.8 98.5 85.4 101.9 103.5 120.3 128.7 127.7 248.7
Average Index for 2H 103.2 96.3 97.6 98.4 111.4 131.0 133.0 138.3
Page 50
Brunei
VolumeEconomic
6 - Issue 3Bulletin
Unit – Barrels/Day
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Jan 205,681 207,290 215,020 207,785 213,223 191,227 211,010 201,591 184,701
Feb 217,272 191,472 204,550 199,502 211,055 216,101 217,308 206,245 207,998
Mar 216,297 197,709 201,230 206,610 197,933 212,061 234,840 199,857 186,190
Apr 211,948 179,623 186,880 210,221 212,929 203,979 220,100 199,251 161,247
May 203,764 169,771 193,561 205,183 201,172 178,109 221,700 195,001 165,414
Jun 146,835 186,537 203,188 214,122 191,130 198,938 208,223 177,446 152,587
Jul 164,901 194,308 204,150 205,119 195,142 184,204 210,929 184,539 161,132
Aug 179,867 193,504 216,474 203,128 214,846 193,057 222,242 187,969 178,729
Sep 176,673 193,351 192,335 210,727 207,879 209,399 230,087 199,490 164,665
Crude oil prod for the year 193,101 195,065 203,021 207,240 205,750 200,812 219,215 193,832
Average crude oil prod Q1 212,991 199,069 207,013 204,803 207,323 206,142 221,177 202,441 192,633
Average crude oil prod Q2 187,694 178,546 194,532 209,790 201,738 193,504 216,729 190,615 159,811
Average crude oil prod Q3 173,783 193,725 204,450 206,277 205,935 195,403 220,988 190,570 168,213
Average crude oil prod Q4 198,095 208,828 206,085 208,063 207,978 208,236 218,151 191,853
Average crude oil prod 1H 200,343 188,751 200,738 207,311 204,531 199,788 218,941 196,495 176,222
Average crude oil prod 2H 185,939 201,276 205,268 207,170 206,956 201,812 217,881 191,211
Jan 1,106,160 1,033,543 1,046,388 1,118,431 1,117,753 1,063,129 1,060,382 1,005,209 1,122,301
Feb 1,080,487 962,006 1,095,799 1,112,133 1,073,981 1,046,040 1,111,183 1,049,561 1,074,012
Mar 1,075,867 1,141,934 990,443 1,165,771 1,063,287 1,119,859 1,165,843 1,060,353 1,092,231
Apr 848,098 864,858 750,836 1,037,552 1,126,284 838,344 1,096,965 978,637 1,038,443
May 783,539 682,869 687,569 1,002,617 785,019 662,121 890,879 844,962 834,247
Jun 712,241 960,671 915,497 1,088,055 946,134 1,028,893 918,639 1,032,789 801,242
Jul 1,053,055 838,649 1,061,756 1,050,631 1,061,482 848,523 1,053,634 994,364 960,038
Aug 895,912 936,035 1,061,236 948,691 1,060,398 1,002,652 1,165,553 1,030,754 1,060,763
Sep 866,617 1,023,296 980,426 970,992 932,439 1,096,083 1,024,325 1,114,712 1,082,591
LNG prod for the year 943,992 968,124 978,804 1,049,143 1,016,002 992,543 1,032,150 1,021,528
Average LNG prod Q1 1,087,659 1,048,622 1,042,490 1,132,778 1,085,250 1,077,353 1,112,512 1,038,070 1,096,669
Average LNG prod Q2 781,317 834,448 783,567 1,042,284 950,639 841,130 967,971 950,952 890,684
Average LNG prod Q3 939,309 931,675 1,035,060 990,427 1,019,037 981,184 1,081,789 1,045,870 1,033,951
Average LNG prod Q4 967,477 1,058,049 1,053,363 1,031,013 1,009,124 1,070,704 1,046,795 1,050,814
Average LNG prod 1H 934,488 940,943 912,244 1,087,281 1,017,944 958,589 1,039,842 994,236 961,603
Average LNG prod2 H 953,393 994,862 1,044,212 1,011,006 1,014,081 1,025,944 1,053,149 1,021,511
Page 51
Brunei Economic Bulletin
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