How does global warming work?

How does global warming work? 8

The “Hockey Stick” debate 10

Causes 13
Think Global, Act Local 13

Effects 17
What will happen if we do nothing? 18
Effects on the environment 19
Ice caps 19
Weather 22
Water supply 25
Vegetation and animals 28
CASE STUDY: EARTHWATCH 32
CASE STUDY: WOODLAND TRUST 34
Human health 36

Possible solutions 37
Energy 39
Renewable energy sources 40
Industry 42
CASE STUDY: GREEN-WORKS 42
CASE STUDY: ROYAL MAIL 43
Transport 44
Road 44
Rail, passenger 44
Rail, freight 45
Air 45
Water 45
Journeys to school 47
CASE STUDY: KESGRAVE HIGH SCHOOL 48
CASE STUDY: £5 MILLION CYCLE TO SCHOOL 49
Home 51
Immediate and no cost 54
Water 55
Waste 55
CASE STUDY: FINDHORN 56
Shopping 58

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How does global warming work?

How does
global warming work?
SECTION SUMMARY

• The atmosphere of the earth has evolved over c. 4.7 billion years.
• The interaction of solar energy, the atmosphere and the earth’s surface (oceans, land
and vegetation) largely determines the nature of our climate at any given time.
• The climate changes over time naturally, mainly as a result of changes in solar energy
reaching the planet. These changes can produce warmer and cooler periods; the latter
can produce ice ages which may last thousands of years.
• Recent analysis of climate data appears to indicate that there has been an accelerated
warming of the atmosphere in recent years.
• Most scientists now relate this accelerated warming to the presence of additional
“greenhouse” gases trapping extra energy within the atmospheric system.

Dr Geoff Jenkins, of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said recently:

“Over the last few decades there’s been much more evidence for the human
influence on climate... We’ve reached the point where it’s only by including
human activity that we can explain what’s happening.”

Fossil records of earth temperatures indicate that
global temperatures have always varied. The earth
has swung between relatively cooler phases which
have generated ice ages (glacial periods) and
warmer periods when ice has retreated (inter-glacial).
In between these phases there has tended to be
an irregular transition between the two states, with
shorter-term peaks and troughs masking gradual
longer-term increases or decreases in temperature
(see fig 1).
In recent years detailed analyses of these natural
fluctuations have suggested that an accelerated
warming (over and above what could be expected
naturally) is taking place. This has been termed
“global warming”.
Global warming is the observed increase in the
average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere and
oceans in recent decades. The earth’s average near-
surface atmospheric temperature raised 0.6 ± 0.2°C
during the 20th century. The majority of scientists
believe that most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
(see fig 2).

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How does global warming work?

FIG 1 Variations in global near-surface land temperature

FIG 2 Global warming predictions

9
How does global warming work?

The “Hockey Stick” debate

Much discussion has focused on whether the current trend in rising global temperatures is
unprecedented or within the range expected from natural variations. This is commonly referred to as
the “Hockey Stick” debate as it discusses the validity of figures that show sustained temperatures for
around 1000 years and then a sharp increase since around 1800 (for example, Mann et al. 1999,
shown as a white line in the figure below).

Some have interpreted the “Hockey Stick” as definitive proof of the human influence on climate.
However, others have suggested that the data and methodologies used to produce this type of figure
are questionable (e.g. von Storch et al. 2004), because widespread, accurate temperature records
are only available for the past 150 years. Much of the temperature record is recreated from a range
of “proxy” sources such as tree rings, historical records, ice cores, lake sediments and corals.

Climate change arguments do not rest on “proving” that the warming trend is unprecedented over
the past millennium. Whether or not this debate is now settled, this is only one in a number of lines
of evidence for human induced climate change. The key conclusion that the build-up of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere will lead to several degrees of warming rests on the laws of physics and
chemistry and a broad range of evidence beyond one particular graph.

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How does global warming work?

The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and

other greenhouse gases are the primary causes of
the human-induced component of warming. They are
released by the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing
and agriculture, etc. and lead to an increase in the
greenhouse effect. However greenhouse gases
(GHGs) are necessary for our survival on earth
(see fig 3).

FIG 3 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are necessary for our survival on earth

They help to trap some of the solar radiation that

would otherwise be irradiated back out to space.
Without them our planet would be too cool to support
many species of plants and animals including humans.

We have an atmospheric composition that has

evolved over millions of years and even slight changes
in the atmosphere can have enormous impacts in
terms of which species can survive and which cannot.

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How does global warming work?

Increases in GHGs upset that balance. They trap FIG 4 Atmospheric composition
more solar radiation and cause a gradual rising of
temperature that affects everyone on the planet
whether we live in rich or poor countries. Already
climatologists have identified changes in rainfall
and species distribution that ask serious questions N2
78.084%
about water and food supplies. Violent storms are
more common and sea level rises threaten millions
in coastal communities.

Some scientists think these changes are gathering

pace and may even be irreversible. Others believe
O2
that if we are serious about tackling global warming 20.946%
we should think what we are prepared to do to Ar
0.037680% 0.9340%
reduce GHG emissions. This isn’t just a question
for governments. It is more personal in that it asks
us what we are prepared to do as organisations
and individuals. As long as we believe it is someone
else’s fault and someone else will deal with it we
are unlikely to address the problem.

CO2
0.035%
Gases in the atmosphere
N2 Nitrogen
Ne
O2 Oxygen 0.001818%

Ar Argon He
H2 0.000524%
CO2 Carbon Dioxide 0.000055%
CH4
Ne Neon Kr 0.0001745%
0.000114%
He Helium
CH4 Methane
Kr Krypton
H2 Hydrogen

12