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Viewing cable 09SINGAPORE529, DEPUTY SECRETARY STEINBERG’S MAY 30, 2009

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Orig

Currently released so far...
1095 / 251,287 09SINGAPORE529 2009-06-04 09:09 2010-11-29 21:09 SECRET Emb
Articles
R 040908Z JUN 09
Brazil FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
Sri Lanka TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6790
United Kingdom INFO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
Sweden
Editorial
United States Thursday, 04 June 2009, 09:08
S E C R E T SINGAPORE 000529
EO 12958 DECL: 06/04/2029
Browse latest releases TAGS OVIP (STEINBERG, JAMES B.), PREL, MNUC, ECON, SN, CH,
KN
2010/12/08 SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY STEINBERG’S MAY 30, 2009
2010/12/07 CONVERSATION WITH SINGAPORE MINISTER MENTOR LEE KUAN YEW
2010/12/06 Classified By: Charge d’Affaires Daniel L. Shields. Reason 1.4 (b) an
¶1. (SBU) May 30, 2009; 6:30 p.m.; The Presidential Palace; Singapore
2010/12/05 ¶2. (SBU) Participants:
2010/12/04 United States
2010/12/03 -------------
2010/12/02 The Deputy Secretary Glyn T. Davies, EAP Acting Assistant Secretary D
Shields, CDA (Notetaker)
2010/12/01 SINGAPORE
2010/11/30 ---------
2010/11/29 Minister Mentor (MM) Lee Kuan Yew Chee Hong Tat, Principal Private Se
2010/11/28 MM Cheryl Lee, Country Officer, Americas Directorate, MFA
¶3. (S) SUMMARY: Deputy Secretary Steinberg used his meeting with Min
Lee Kuan Yew to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in addre
Browse by creation date North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee’s views on China and N
66 72 75 79 86 88 89 90 MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapo
not want North Korea to collapse. If China has to choose, Beijing see
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad than a North Korea that has co
10 Lee asked Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General
Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General Ma’s answer was
Browse by origin can survive on their own.” The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK c
fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach. If not, Nor
A B C D F H I J faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan. MM
K L M N O P R S believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” MM Lee also offered views on th
economy, Taiwan, Chinese leaders, and U.S.-China relations. End Summa
T U V W Y China and North Korea
---------------------
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¶4. (S) Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan
Yew on May 30 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual international
security forum held in Singapore. The Deputy Secretary used the meeting with MM
Lee to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in addressing the North Korea
nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee’s views on China and North Korea. MM Lee said
the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. At the same time,
the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to
collapse. The ROK would take over in the North and China would face a U.S.
presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with
nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he
stated.
¶5. (S) MM Lee said he asked Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General Ma’s
Delphic answer was that “they can survive on their own.” MM Lee said he
interpreted this as meaning that even if China cut off aid, the DPRK leadership
would survive. This is a leadership that has already taken actions like killing
ROK Cabinet Members in Burma and shooting down a KAL flight. If they lose power,
they will end up facing justice at The Hague, like Milosevic. They have been so
isolated for so long that they have no friends, not even Russia. They have not
trusted China since the Chinese began cultivating ties with the ROK, given
China’s interest in attracting foreign investment, he said. The Deputy Secretary
noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its
approach. If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the
ROK and Japan. MM Lee expressed worry about the effect on Iran if the DPRK
persists. MM Lee said he believes the DPRK can be contained and will not
proliferate, but Iran has very high ambitions, ties to Shiite communities outside
Iran, and oil wealth.
¶6. (S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea’s decisions will have an
impact in Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” The Chinese
must have factored this into their calculations and concluded that the prospect
of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer
state. The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years
the DPRK’s current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with
new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
¶7. (S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he
would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear weapons. They
might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the
USG decides to seek regime change. They are psychopathic types, with a “flabby
old chap” for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation. MM Lee
noted that he had learned from living through three and a half years of Japanese
occupation in Singapore that people will obey authorities who can deny them food,
clothing and medicine.
¶8. (S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German
unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is “nothing
there” in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already
had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has another stroke. The next
leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may
2 von 4 not be prepared to see people die like flies. China is calculating all this. They08.12.10 16:56
have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance
common objectives. But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee
said.
Chinese Economy
---------------
Cable Viewer http://213.251.145.96/cable/2009/06/09SINGAPORE529.html

like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected
enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.
Taiwan
------
¶11. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked MM Lee for his assessment of Taiwan. MM Lee
said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position,
which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to
strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with
China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point
approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was
a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient
and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted
Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his
successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and
accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest
of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter
to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As
in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.
¶12. (C) In this context, MM Lee said, Hu could live with Ma’s positions on the
‘92 consensus and on not addressing the reunification issue during his term in
office. What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that
happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the U.S.
fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is
what they want, MM Lee said.
¶13. (C) MM Lee stated that the alternative is Mainland investment in Taiwan
stocks and property. The Mainland has already assured Hong Kong that it will help
out economically. The Mainland has not said this to Taiwan, but the Mainland’s
Taiwan Affairs Director, Wang Yi, did urge Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan.
In four years Taiwan’s economy will pick up and Ma will win re-election. The DPP
lacks strong potential candidates. Su Zhen-chang is promising, but seems unlikely
to be able to win. Meanwhile, even the traditionally DPP-supporting farmers in
Taiwan’s South need China’s market for vegetables and other products. Taiwan’s
continued participation in the World Health Assembly depends on Beijing.
Beijing’s calculation seems to be to prevent Taiwan independence in the near
term, then bring Taiwan “back to China,” even if it takes 40 or 50 years. MM Lee
said he is looking forward to visiting Fujian Province, where preparations are
underway for a new southern economic area linked with Taiwan.
Xi Jinping
----------
¶14. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping
would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded
affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When
the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi
is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s
influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no
more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him,
because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.
Wang Qishan
-----------
¶15. (C) MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with
celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial
Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS
superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics.
Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep
Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang
back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang
told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders
going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed.
Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.
China’s Rise
------------
¶16. (C) MM Lee said China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the
Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and
Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not
stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other
countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those
two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent
annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP,
not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the
population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in
the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known
in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma, he stated.
¶17. (C) MM Lee said China will not reach the American level in terms of military
capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter
U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports,

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including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with
South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea
lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is
moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma.
Build Ties with Young Chinese
-----------------------------
¶18. (C) MM Lee said the best course for the United States on China is to build
ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the
United States, with the UK as the next option, then Japan. While they are there,
it is important that they be treated as equals, with the cultural support they
may need as foreigners. Why not have International Military Education and
Training (IMET) programs for China? Why not have Chinese cadets at West Point
alongside Vietnamese cadets and Indian cadets? America’s advantage is that it can
make use of the talent of the entire world, as in Silicon Valley. China still
tends to try to keep the foreigners in Beijing and Shanghai. MM Lee noted that
his own experience as a student in the UK had left him with an enduring fondness
for the UK. When he spent two months at Harvard in 1968, an American professor
had invited him home for Thanksgiving. This was not the sort of thing that
happened in the UK, and Lee had realized he was dealing with a different
civilization. In the future, China’s leaders will have PhDs and MBAs from
American universities, he predicted.
¶19. (U) The Deputy Secretary has cleared this message.
Visit Embassy Singapore’s Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap
/singapore/ind ex.cfm
SHIELDS

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