Sudan Talking Points, December 2010

The people of Sudan have endured some of the world’s most horrendous
violence, including genocide in the Darfur region that has claimed more
than 300,000 lives and forced millions from their homes, and a 22-year
civil war that caused an estimated 2 million people to die, mostly in the
south.

In just one month, Southerners will vote on whether to secede from Sudan
and form a new country. Many experts fear that this referendum, part of
an historic 2005 peace agreement that ended Sudan’s civil war, may spark
renewed large-scale violence. Referendum preparations are underway, as
are high-level negotiations between North and South on the key flashpoint
issues that could spark renewed conflict, including wealth sharing, border
demarcation, and the status of contested areas.

At the same time, reports of increased violence against civilians, blocked

humanitarian aid and ongoing human rights abuses in Darfur signal a need
for stepped up American efforts to bring peace to the region.

That is why activists across the country are calling on the Obama
administration to:

1. Make clear that the United States will issue swift and severe
consequences if any party chooses to derail the referenda or
instigate mass violence;

2. Appoint a senior Darfur diplomat who can provide additional

diplomatic focus to solve the crisis there.

WHAT ARE THE THREATS TO THE PEOPLE OF SUDAN?

-- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called Sudan a “ticking time bomb”

1. Formal Declaration of War or Intentional Widespread Fighting: Although

avoiding war would seem to be in the interest of both parties, various scenarios
could increase the possibility of this disastrous outcome.

2. Localized Clashes between Northern and Southern Armies: Build-up of

troops from both sides along the north-south border signals a strong possibility
of localized fighting. There are already reports of the northern Sudanese Armed
Forces attacking border areas, and the UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan has
stated that it cannot effectively secure the border. The Abyei region could also
become a flashpoint for violence between northern and southern military forces.
With tensions running high, a localized incident could spark wider conflict.

3. Violent Crackdown on Southerners in the North and/or Northerners in

the South: There are more than 1.5 million southerners living in the North and a
significant number of northerners living in the south, and these populations
could be targets of human rights abuses and possibly violence. Direct threats
against the rights of southerners living in the north have already been reported.
4. Violent Clashes between Different Political and/or Ethnic Groups:
Localized violence between ethnic and political groups within the south and/or
the Abyei region is a real possibility. Violence could erupt on its own or be
supported by the Government of Sudan.

5. Polling Irregularities that Serve to Increase North-South Tensions:

Given various logistical challenges—and the competing interests of both parties
—the likelihood of polling irregularities during the referenda is high. Depending
upon how extensive the irregularities are and how they impact the results of the
referenda, tensions between parties could increase even further. The biggest
point of contention is likely to be around meeting the threshold requiring 60% of
those registered to vote in South Sudan’s referendum to turn out in order for the
results to be valid.

6. Delayed Referenda that Threatens to Unravel the Comprehensive

Peace Agreement: If the referendum on southern secession and/or the
referendum on the status of Abyei are delayed without mutual agreements on
rescheduling, serious problems could arise including the threat of a unilateral
secession by the south, which could trigger a violent reaction from the north.

7. Refugee Crises in Border States: Direct north-south violence or localized

clashes that seriously endanger civilians may drive many people from their
homes to bordering states.

8. Lord’s Resistance Army Involved in Attacks: The LRA resumes either

localized attacks or a widespread campaign to terrorize civilians in southern
Sudan or Darfur, including by abducting children to replenish its ranks. There
have been numerous indications that the LRA has recently sought safe haven in
South Darfur and has sought support from the Khartoum government, who
previously supported the LRA.

9. Intensified Violence in Darfur: With international attention focused on

north/south issues, the Government of Sudan could ramp up violent activities in
Darfur. Recent reports indicate that the Government has accelerated violence
against civilians and obstructed or manipulated access for aid groups and
peacekeepers in numerous areas.

WHAT MUST THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DO TO SUPPORT PEACE IN

SUDAN?

-- In his Annual Threat Assessment for 2010, the former Director of National
Intelligence told Congress that Southern Sudan is the place in the world most
likely to experience new mass killing or genocide.

The United States must be prepared to take stronger actions if diplomatic

efforts are not sufficient to prevent and/or halt violence. These should be
determined and prepared for in advance, and the United States should publically
spell out consequences for negative action by Sudanese parties.

Comprehensive Contingency Planning: This planning should be done in

coordination with our allies wherever possible and must be kept up-to-date as the
situation on the ground changes.
Ensuring flexible funds are available for emergency support: The United
States should also encourage key players in the international community including
UN Security Council and European Union member states to make funds available for
contingencies. This includes responding quickly to any major displacement within
Sudan or refugee spillover into neighboring states.

Enhance Peacekeeping Forces Capacity to Respond: Support deployment of

additional UNMIS peacekeepers to flashpoint areas, and/or if needed provide more
direct assistance to peacekeeping forces to quell violence.

Monitoring and Intelligence Gathering: Any information on the organization or

perpetration of violence should be shared as appropriate with peacekeeping forces
and allies. The U.S. should be prepared to shut down military-related
communication if necessary to prevent violence.