UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFI LUSE ONLY INTELLIGENCE NOTE 6 April 2020 (U) Counterintelligence Mission Center (U//FOUO) Russia Likely Watching US Response to COVID-19 (U) Scope. This intelligence Note informs DHS leadership of Russia's likely collection targets against eritical Infrastructure vulnerabilities during the COVID-19 emergency—namely the medical supply chain and information ‘outlets. Ituses open source reporting to reach the widest possible audience. The audience for this Note includes state, local, tribal. and territorial authorities, and members of the private sector involved in supply chain management. ‘and maintaining the integrity of public information. The information cutoff date is 28 March 2020, (U) Prepared by the DHS Intelligence Enterprise (DHS IF) Counterintelligence Mission Center (CIMC). Coordinated with DHS IE Economic Security Mission Center (ESMC), DHS IE Cyber Mission Center (CYMC). FEMA, and ICE. (U//FOUO) Russian intelligence services likely are watching the US response to the COVID-19 pandemic, at least ‘concerning healthcare supply chain shortfalls and the public's reaction to disinformation, judging from Western ‘media reporting. This information could satisfy Moscow's collection requirements supporting asymmetric military ‘operations designed to weaken US critical infrastructure. intelligence collection on medical supply chain vulnerabilities could inform future operations aimed at weakening key logistical elements in preparation for a wartime attaok. or opportunistically during an emergency. Russia's examination of the American publie’s reaction to disinformation could help improve future campaigns unleashed during a crisis or degraded relations, shaking, public confidence in the US government. » (U//FOUO) Medical first responders as of mid-March lacked enough supplies of COVID-19 test kits, personal Protection equipment, and ventilators because the supply chain was unprepared for a pandemic. according to Credible press reporting *2 This information could fulfil Russia's collection requirements to understand. vulnerabilities in the US medical supply chain, though we lack reporting such activity is underway. We assume any Russian plans to interrupt US supply chains are highly compartmented, and so reporting is sparse. » (U//FOUO) Russian media since at least late January have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign’ ‘against the West to worsen the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, generate panic, and sow distrust, according to @ European Union study and press reports.34 We expect the Kremlin analyzes American public reaction to disinformation and adjusts techniques to maximize the impact both during the current COVID-19 situation and in the future. such as Russia's ongoing 2020 election interference. (U) Russia's Asymmetric Military Doctrine (U//FOUO) Russia has devised an asymmetric military doctrine to be used in combination with conventional tactics during hostilities called, “Strategic Operation for the Destruction of Critically Important Targets (SODCIT),” which ‘seeks to sap the will to fight from its adversary by, among other things, putting pressure on the population at the ‘same time as engaging militarily. A few examples of SODCIT targets include politcal, economic, military, and energy infrastructures, and targets of strategic significance, such as healthcare and public perception. During peacetime, Russia prepares the ground in the event of hostilities by collecting inteligence on the vulnerabilities of each target. During degraded relations, Russia conducts some operations to keep its adversary off balance, such as disinformation campaigns and possibly mapping the medical supply chain. One frequent vector for these activities is through cyber operations, which are low cost and provide piausible deniability. owoe202014 Ne re A RRR a Fa NS RSE SS a ear eee pee ae men omomreeaa SriSacmecias eran aa aeae UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLYUNCLASSIFIED/JFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U//FOUO) An opportunity exists for the US government to work with the private sector to shore up critical infrastructure supply chains by ensuring necessary components are produced and distributed under US control— {and that a stockpile 's maintained based on expert forecasts. For example, conceivably measures could be taken to limit dependence on foreign factories that might be closed during a pandemic or at the whim of a foreign government. There is also an opportunity for the US government and state and local authorities to engage with ‘news outlets, think tanks, educational institutions, and the entertainment industry to teach the public about disinformation campaigns by raising awareness and showing how adversaries seek to manipulate public perception. (U) To report suspicious activity, law enforcement, Fire-EMS, private security personnel, and emergency managers ‘should follow established protocols; all other personnel should call 911 or contact local law enforcement. Suspicious activity reports (SARs) will be forwarded to the appropriate fusion center and FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force for Turth action. For more information on the Nationwide SAR Initiative, visit http://nsl.ncire. gov/resources.aspx. (W) Tracked by: HSEC-7.1, HSEC-7.2, HSEC-7.5 ————— UNCLASSIFIED/JFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 3UNCLASSIFIED/JFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ++(U): New York Times; 19 MAR 20; "At War with No Ammo’: Doctors Say Shortage of Protective Gear Is Dire; hnttps:/ www nytimes,com/2020/03/19/noalth/coronavirus-masks shortage html: Accessed 23 MAR 2020. (U):Poltioo: 12 MAR 20; Congress livid over lags in coronavirus testing: https:// www politico.com/news/2020/03/12/coronavinus- testing-127016; Accessed 23 MAR 2020. 3(U); Routors; 18 MAR 20; Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says; !ntps:/ wwe. reuters.comy aticle/us-health-coronavirus disinformation /russia-deploying-coronavirus-dsinformationt0 Sow panic.in- west ets documentsays idUSKBN215 18F; Accessed 23 MAR 2020. *(U): New York Times: 28 MAR 2020; As Vitus Spreads, China and Russia See Openings for Disinformation: bttps://www nytimes.com 2020/03/28/us/politics/china russie-coronavirus-diinformation html: Accessed on 38 MAR 2020. SEES UNCLASSIFIED/JFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 3ee a= meg keane eae) Customer Feedback Form Product Tite: (U//FOUO) Russia Likely Watching US Response to COVID-19 All survey responses are completely anonymous. 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