The Prince and Political Stability 1

The Prince and Political Stability

MAJ Ian S. Davis

24 September 2009

Naval Postgraduate School

SO3802: Seminar in Guerrilla Warfare

Professor McCormick
Fall 2009
 The Prince and Political Stability 2

The Prince and Political Stability

Nearly eight years after al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center, the United

States is still overburdened with the task of establishing stability in Afghanistan and Iraq after

militarily defeating their former regimes. While the Taliban and Saddam Hussein were defeated

quickly on the battlefield, the lack of planning for the establishment of a post-victory new

government has led to the increasing loss of lives and resources. Although the political-military

situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are complex, they are by no means new. For centuries,

political philosophers presented their theories on the rise and fall of nations and the factors that

led to success or failure of the state. Italian political philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli’s writing

titled The Prince (Constantine, 2007) identified factors that lead to a state’s stability or

instability. Written in by Machiavelli in 1513, The Prince, based on historical cases of how

rulers succeeded or failed, identified that the sources of political stability are the ruler’s

relationship with the people and his ability to control them. The Prince shows that the way a

prince (ruler) can achieve stability is to understand the environment, establish and maintain

authority, and manipulate the variables that affect the well-being of the principality (state). The

sources of political stability that Machiavelli found in the 1500’s are still relevant today and can

be political-military situations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout the

world.ADDIN RW.CITE{{89 Constantine, Peter 2007/pas cited in /s24;}}

Understanding the Environment

The first Special Operations Forces Imperative is to “Understand the Operational

Environment.” (Army Special Operations Forces Imperatives ) By understanding the

environment, a leader can shape his strategy for securing and stabilizing the state. To do this, he

ADDIN RW.CITE{{89 Constantine, Peter 2007/pas cited in /s24;}}

The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli [1469-1527] referenced in this essay
comes from The Essential Writings of Machiavelli (Constantine, 2007)
 The Prince and Political Stability 3

must understand the people, the nature of past rule, and the available options for establishing

new rule.

To understand the people, a ruler must first understand human nature. People have a

basic instinct to improve their situation. Those who succeed or at least make an attempt to

improve are admired. (Constantine, 2007,p. 15) This desire for satisfaction is what can lead to

loyalty or rebellion. To secure himself against enemies, a leader must make the populace love

and fear him, gain the loyalty and respect of the army, eliminate those who can harm him.

(Constantine, 2007, p. 31) The relationship between the ruler and his people is critical for

stability of the state and is based on the ruler understanding what the people need and how they

will act. As long as there is equilibrium, through love or through fear, the state will be stable.

As Machiavelli stated (in Constantine, 2007, p. 83), “The best fortress for the prince is to be

loved by his people, because if he is hated by them, all the fortresses in the world will not save

him.” (Constantine, 2007)

A ruler must understand the nature of past rule is necessary to establish and effective new

rule. Machiavelli began The Prince by identifying the different types of principalities and how

they should be governed and maintained. He revealed that the basis for controlling a principality

is to determine the nature and lineage of rule. Hereditary states that are tied to a bloodline are

easy to maintain because the people generally love him. (Constantine, 2007, p. 8) Mixed

principalities, where the former ruler was removed, are volatile and difficult to maintain because

many of the underlying friction is still present. Because the people already took up arms against

their former ruler once, they have the ability to do so again if their expectations are not met.

(Constantine, 2007, p. 9) Rulers that derive their power from religion, which Machiavelli

identified as ecclesiastical principalities, are special and the most secure. They are special
 The Prince and Political Stability 4

because “they are under the guidance of a superior power that the mind of man cannot fathom.”

(Constantine, 2007, p. 44) Since an ecclesiastical ruler maintains his authority through God, his

rule transcends political boundaries. The power of religious rule is evident in modern times with

the influence that the Pope and the Ayatollah have in international affairs. By analyzing the

historical foundation of past rule, a new ruler has a baseline for establishing and maintaining

control.

Based on the nature of the people and how they were ruled in the past, a conqueror can

generate options to take power. The most efficient option must maximize control and minimize

any negative effects of the populace. If a new state has been living freely under its own laws, it

can be secured by destruction, occupation, or allowing it to live free through its citizens after

removing the old ruler. (Constantine, 2007, p. 20) A state that is destroyed or occupied is

difficult to maintain because they are mixed principalities and have the associated points of

friction. Because of the friction between the people and the invaders as a result of the conquest,

there will be some resentment of the new ruler. Rule can be established by rebellion, but there

are implications to consider. If the people had the will and capacity to rise up against their old

ruler, then they may do so again fit their expectations are not met by the new ruler. (Constantine,

2007, p. 9) The failure to include Machiavelli’s teachings in post-combat transition planning is a

contributing factor to sectarian violence in Iraq and a growing insurgency in Afghanistan.

Machiavelli also wrote that new states are dangerous and the new ruler must establish and

maintain control. While a ruler must be loved by the people, being loved should not outweigh

safety. It is better to be feared than loved, as long as the ruler is feared and not hated.

(Constantine, 2007, p. 65) The recent U.S. troop surge and counterinsurgency guidance in
 The Prince and Political Stability 5

Afghanistan is a validation of what Machiavelli identified to be essential for a state’s stability.

(ISAF News Release #2009-643 ISAF Commander Issues Counterinsurgency Guidance.)

Establishing Authority

Based on his understanding environment, the next step to a state’s stability is for the new

ruler to establish authority. As the U.S learns from its failures during past military actions, it is

re-learning the same principals that Machiavelli identified almost 500 years earlier. The

formation of the U.S Government Interagency Counterinsurgency

InitiativeADDIN RW.CITE{{89 Constantine, Peter 2007/pas cited in /s24;}}(United States Government Interagency

Counterinsurgency Initiative (ICI) ) is and example of the importance that proper establishment

of government and services plays in state stability during the post-conflict period. Military

doctrine and the 2009 U.S. Government Counterinsurgency Guide echo Machiavelli’s theories

on how to establish authority acquire the state, establishing control, and legitimizing the ruler’s

authority. (U.S. Government Counterinsurgency Guide2009)

The Prince identified the methods for acquiring a new state are through the use of arms,

skill, fortune, or a combination of the three. When a ruler acquires a state by skill or fortune

without the use of arms, maintaining authority is difficult because the ruler is beheld to those that

gave him the opportunity and must rely on his own skill to succeed. Since the ruler has no way

to apply force, success relies on his ability to gain the support of his subjects to thwart any

conspirators. Since a ruler can not avoid being hated by one of two factions, he should first

strive not to be hated by the people. If that is not possible, he should do his utmost to avoid

ADDIN RW.CITE{{89 Constantine, Peter 2007/pas cited in /s24;}}

The State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs (PM) leads the
Interagency Counterinsurgency Initiative (ICI), which is intended to socialize counterinsurgency (COIN) concepts
across U.S. Government (USG) agencies and increase USG capacity to conduct whole-of-government COIN
activities in order to more effectively address threats from national or transnational insurgencies. PM launched the
Initiative in September 2006 with strong support from General David Petraeus and the Department of Defense. Ten
U.S. government agencies and departments participate in the Initiative. (United States Government Interagency
Counterinsurgency Initiative (ICI) )(U.S. Government Counterinsurgency Guide2009; United States Government
Interagency Counterinsurgency Initiative (ICI) )
 The Prince and Political Stability 6

being hated by the faction that is more powerful. (Constantine, 2007, p. 75) A state acquired

through arms and skill arms is the most efficient way to acquire a new state. A ruler that uses

skill to take advantage of an opportunity or good fortune will flourish and prosper. To secure the

acquisition, must take advantage to the proper application of force to prevent or eliminate threats.

The example that Machiavelli used was that of Hiro of

SyracuseADDIN RW.CITE{{110 Anonymous; 112 Anonymous 2009}}. “Hiero eliminated the old army and set up a new

one, abandoned old friendships for new ones, and on the foundations of these new soldiers and

friends realized that he could build on any edifice. It took much effort for him to acquire his

state, but little to keep it.” (as stated in Constantine, 2007, p. 25)

The use of force and law to establish and maintain authority is found throughout The

Prince. According to Machiavelli (as stated in Constantine, 2007), “the primary foundation of

all states—new, old, or mixed—is good law and a good army.” (p.47) The types of armies he

describes are a prince’s own army, and mercenary army, and an auxiliary army. Of the three, he

concludes that a principality is not safe without its own army comprised of people of the state.

Mercenary armies, such as modern Private Security Companies (PSC), are not reliable because

they are out for their own greatness and are only on the battlefield to earn wages. Since the

wages are not sufficient for them to stay on the battlefield in the face of adversity, they are not as

loyal as a citizen soldier. Likewise, auxiliary armies, like Coalition Partners in modern conflicts,

are not as reliable or loyal as a ruler’s own troops. This is because they are loyal to another ruler

and have their native state’s interests in mind. (Constantine, 2007)

After acquiring the new state, a new ruler must formulate a strategy to establish control

through presence, security, and political structure. In chapter three of The Prince (Constantine,

2007), Machiavelli determined that the best and quickest solution for a prince to establish his
ADDIN RW.CITE{{110 Anonymous; 112 Anonymous 2009}}
Hiero II of Syracuse (as cited in Constantine, 2007)
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authority in a new state is to go and live there. The benefit of direct presence is the prince has a

clearer picture of the state’s issues and can rapidly act on any crisis. Furthermore, the prince’s

presence will mitigate subversion and provide immediate access to the people. Machiavelli also

recommends that establishing colonies is another efficient technique for a prince to have

presence in a new state. The technique affords the benefits of direct presence, without the costs

associated with securing a state with an army. Machiavelli’s theories on a ruler’s presence is

visible throughout the latest U.S. policy on Afghanistan and other scholarly writings identify the

requirement for the manifestation of state authority at the village level. (Afghanistan: Country

outlook.2009)

To secure his authority, a ruler must have a security apparatus. Machiavelli (as stated in

Constantine, 2007) understood the value of a local security elements when he stated,

No new prince has ever disarmed his subjects. In fact, whenever a prince found his new

subjects disarmed, he always armed them, because when he does so those arms become

his. The men he did not trust become faithful, those who were faithful remain so, and his

subjects become his partisans. (p. 80)

A strong security force is not only necessary for repelling invaders, but also for internal security

and shows legitimacy of the government. While Machiavelli looks at power projection from the

standpoint of conquering and occupying new territory outside of the state, the same principals

apply to internal security. Failure to create a security apparatus outlined in The Prince is a

contributing factor to the lack of government control and the subsequent rise of the insurgency in

Afghanistan. (Jones, 2008) Empowering the villages is a form of a ruler establishing a colony to

secure his authority. The prince that introduces new order makes enemies of those that did well

under the old rule, and finds half hearted defenders in the men who would do well under the new
 The Prince and Political Stability 8

rule, and it is difficult to maintain their allegiance. By eliminating former leaders and turning

their followers into allies, popular support is achieved by the populace benefitting from the new

ruler. To prevent the Taliban from exploiting the lack of government presence to control the

populace, the village elders, with the help of religious leaders, must be empowered to maintain

order through tribal codes, structures, and religious laws that have been in place for centuries.

Political structure is a mechanism for control. According to Machiavelli (as stated in

Constantine, 2007), the best way to keep a city living freely is through its citizens. The strength

of a government comes from its capability to rule. In chapter nine of The Prince, Machiavelli

compares the merits of ruling through either a central government or a decentralized government.

He described a form of centralized government as on where a Prince and his servants govern.

This is formed when the nobles cannot stand up against the people, so they put all of their

support behind another noble and make him prince. The prince has more authority than his

servants and no man is superior to him. An alternative to a strong central government is

decentralization and local governance. A modern correlation Machiavelli’s concept of a

decentralized government is evident using a proposed model for a successfully defeating the

insurgency in Afghanistan. The political hierarchy consists of the prince (President Karzai) and

a group of barons (tribal leaders) who hold their rank by bloodline rather than the prince’s favor

(presidential appointment). Barons have their own states (tribal areas) and subjects (tribesmen),

who recognize them as their lord and have a natural affection for them. (Constantine, 2007) This

form of government is a Tribal Federation that is ruled by legitimate tribal institutions who rely

on local governance with infrastructure support from the central government. Based on the latest

policy changes of the Karzai government and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF),
 The Prince and Political Stability 9

empowering the tribes appears to be a means to establish political stability in Afghanistan.

(Katzman, 2009)

To have the support of the people, a ruler must legitimize his authority. The virtue of the

ruler and his government drives legitimacy. According to Machiavelli (as stated in Constantine,

2007), “Nothing brings so much honor to a man who emerges as a new prince as the new laws

and new institutions he creates, and when these have a sound foundation and greatness, they

bring him esteem and admiration.” (p. 97). While a ruler must sometimes be cruel to the people

for the benefit of the state, he should avoid actions that things that make him hated and scorned

by the masses. Seizing of property, violation of human rights, loss of authority, indecision,

corruption, un-just rule, and failure to provide basic needs to his subjects removes legitimacy and

will lead to a ruler’s demise. To maintain legitimacy, a ruler must be revered through love or

fear and provide for the needs of the people. Rule of law is promotes legitimacy. The laws of

the principality and the esteem of the prince’s subjects are necessary to have a well-ordered and

well-governed state. Preventing corruption by government officials and atrocities by security

forces will help avoid the people from hating the prince. Corruption and the oppression of the

subjects will breed hatred in the government. (Constantine, 2007)

Manipulation

Machiavelli understood the characteristics of human nature and how to them to achieve

political goals. (Fischer, 1997) Based on those characteristics, he presented recommendations to

manipulate to achieve a desired end state. (Langton & Deitz, 1987) After understanding the

environment and establishing authority, a ruler can manipulate the environment for political

stability. The targets of manipulation to achieve political stability are the people, the state, and

other nations.
 The Prince and Political Stability 10

Manipulating the people is the primary means to succeed as a ruler. Providing essential

infrastructure is critical to winning favor of the people. Fortification of the cities and looking

after his subjects enables a ruler to count on the support of his subjects in the face of adversity.

If the cities are well prepared, the populace will unite behind the prince regardless of the

circumstances. The application of Machiavelli’s principal is for the government to provide

essential infrastructure such as roads, utilities, health care, schools, and other social services.

Without these services, the people loose faith in the government. Fulfilling the needs of the

people and allowing them to prosper will put the prince in high regard by his subjects.

According to Machiavelli, a prince must reward achievement. He must give his subjects the

ability to prosper without the fear of loosing what they achieve. A ruler can achieve parsimony

with the people though firm but fair rule, promoting competition, and fostering improvement

through liberties and opportunity. (Constantine, 2007)

Manipulating the state’s officials and mechanisms improves efficiency in the state and

wins popular support of the government. First, the state must the people’s need as mentioned

before. Next, the state must function properly to maintain legitimacy. The Prince highlights the

importance of a ruler to establish procedures to provide oversight and regulation of mechanisms

of the state to avoid the hatred of the people. If a government is not perceived as just, then

rebellion is inevitable. A ruler must listen to his officials and subjects, but be cognoscente of

their true intentions. Immediate access and the ability to tell the truth are pivotal for a ruler to

maintain situational awareness and maintain stability. When a ruler is perceived to be open to

counsel, then he is in a position of advantage to manipulate because of the increased

susceptibility of the target to agree with the ruler’s advice. (Constantine, 2007)
 The Prince and Political Stability 11

Because alliances play a crucial role in the security of the state, a ruler must be able to

manipulate other nations for the state’s security and prosperity. Deception and cunning are

inherent traits in manipulating other states and must also be used by the ruler. As stated in

chapter eighteen in The Prince (Constantine, 2007),a prince must be a fox and a lion in order to

spot the snares and defeat the wolves. (p. 68) Diplomacy is the first means to manipulate another

nation and is the central theme in current international relations. (Waltz, 1979) If truth does not

achieve the desired effect with another nation, then a ruler can use subversion and espionage

against another national for the benefit of the state. This tactic still is employed by all nations by

their clandestine services and is a necessary component for internal security and counter-

terrorism. (Trager & Zagorcheva, 2005) When a nation can not be manipulated by other means,

then the application of force is appropriate to achieve stability. (Art & Waltz, 2009)

Conclusion

In conclusion, the complex political-military situation spawned by the Global War on

Terror is nothing new. Rulers, political philosophers and historians have recorded the rise and

fall of nations and the factors that led to their sustainment or demise. The Prince, clearly

identified that the sources of political stability are the ruler’s relationship with the people and his

ability to control the factors that are relevant to the state. By understanding the environment,

establishing and maintaining authority, and manipulating the variables that affect the well-being

of the state, stability can be achieved. The same sources of political stability that Machiavelli

noted over 500 years ago are still relevant today and can be political-military situations in

Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout the world. The answers to many of our national security

issues can be answered by looking at history and applying the lessons learned. The successes in

Iraq were possible after reviewing history and applying what was effective. Collaboration and
 The Prince and Political Stability 12

implementation of policies that transcend bureaucratic rice bowls are a step forward to achieve

political stability in the U.S. and across the world. By applying the principals of Machiavelli and

other political philosophers, political and military leaders can achieve a safe and secure

environment for the stability and prosperity of their citizens.

 The Prince and Political Stability 13

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