THE ROLE OF HYPOTHESIS IN RESEARCH

GRP 703 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES

AN ASSIGNMENT

BY

YUSUF ADAMU DATTI

PRESENTED TO

DR. M. L RILWANI

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY & REGIONAL PLANNING, AMBROSE ALLI

UNIVERSITY, EKPOMA, EDO STATE

10 DECEMBER 2010
INTRODUCTION

As part of preparation to becoming a researcher, one will need to develop a scientific perspective

toward the world around. This includes how you look at everyday social relationships.

Geographic research, like all other scientific research, is based on scientific inquiry. This special

way of looking at the world began about 500 years ago as a way of understanding the natural

universe. Since then, methods of scientific inquiry have spread to all fields of human knowledge.

Today, methods of the scientific inquiry are accepted throughout the world as the most reliable

way of understanding events and processes in the natural world. This includes how social

behaviour occurs and changes. Scientific Method defines, the difference between a fact, theory,

and hypothesis, how science establish truth, and other issues related to establishing scientific

knowledge.

WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?

The term HYPOTHESIS is derives from the Greek word, hypotithenai meaning "to put under" or

"to suppose." A hypothesis is a tentative expression of an expected relationship between two

variables. When a hypothesis is used, the purpose of the study is to find out whether or not the

hypothesis is supported by the data. (Gold, 1991)

DEFINITION

Thus a hypothesis may be defined as a proposition or a set of proposition set forth as an

explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena either asserted merely as a

provisional conjecture to guide some investigation or accepted as highly probable in the light of

established facts. (Kothari, 2004;184). The concept implies a supposition, proposition assumed
for the sake of argument to be proved or disproved, or simply a question posed with the intention

of arriving at some kind of answer (Rilwani, 2005;132)

 a proposal intended to explain certain facts or observations

 a tentative insight into the natural world; a concept that is not yet verified but that if true

would explain certain facts or phenomena; "a scientific hypothesis that survives

experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"; "he proposed a fresh theory of alkalis

that later was accepted in ...

 guess: a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence

www.wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS

TESTING HYPOTHSIS

Hypothesis testing is the use of statistics logic to determine the probability that a given
hypothesis is true. The usual process of hypothesis testing consists of four steps.

1. Formulate the null hypothesis

H O  (commonly, that the observations are the result of

pure chance) and the alternative hypothesis 

H α  (commonly, that the observations

show a real effect combined with a component of chance variation).

2. Identify a test statistic that can be used to assess the truth of the null hypothesis.
3. Compute the P-value, which is the probability that a test statistic at least as significant as

the one observed would be obtained assuming that the null hypothesis were true. The

smaller the  -value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis.

4. Compare the p-value to an acceptable significance value α (sometimes called an alpha

value). If p≤α , that the observed effect is statistically significant, the null hypothesis

is ruled out, and the alternative hypothesis is valid.

NATURE OF HYPOTHESIS

The following are the main features of a hypothesis:

1. It is conceptual in nature. Some kind of conceptual elements in the framework are involved in

a hypothesis.

2. It is a verbal statement in a declarative form. It is a verbal expression of ideas and concepts, it

is not merely idea but in the verbal form, the idea is ready enough for empirical verification.

3. It has the empirical referent. A hypothesis contains some empirical referent. It indicates the

tentative relationship between two or more variables.

4. It has a forward or future reference. A hypothesis is future oriented. It relates to the future

verification not the past facts and information’s.

5. It is the pivot of a scientific research. All the research activities are designed for its

verification.

FUNCTIONS OF HYPOTHESIS

The following are the main functions of hypothesis in the research process suggested by H.H.

Mc. Ashan :
1. It is a temporary solution of a problem concerning with some truth which enables an

investigator to start his research work.

2. It offers a basis in establishing the specifics what to study for and may provide possible

solutions to the problem.

3. Each hypothesis may lead to formulate another hypothesis.

4. A preliminary hypothesis may take the shape of final hypothesis.

5. Each hypothesis provides the investigator with definite statement which may be objectively

tested and accepted or rejected and leads for interpreting results and drawing conclusions that is

related to original purpose.

The functions of a hypothesis may be condensed into three. The following are the threefold

functions of a hypothesis:

(a) To delimit the field of the investigation.

(b) To sensitize the researcher so that he should work selectively, and have very realistic

approach to the problem.

(c) To offer the simple means for collecting evidences to the verification.

CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPOTHSIS

i. Hypothesis should be clear and precise. If the hypothesis is not clear and precise, the

inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken as reliable.

ii. Hypothesis should be capable of being tested. In a swamp of untestable hypotheses, many

a time the research programmes have bogged down. Some prior study may be done by

researcher in order to make hypothesis a testable one. A hypothesis “is testable if other

deductions can be made from it which, in turn, can be confirmed or disproved by

observation.”1
iii. Hypothesis should state relationship between variables, if it happens to be a relational

hypothesis.

iv. Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be specific. A researcher must remember

that narrower hypotheses are generally more testable and he should develop such

hypotheses.

v. Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most simple terms so that the same is

easily understandable by all concerned. But one must remember that simplicity of

hypothesis has nothing to do with its significance.

vi. Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts i.e., it must be consistent with a

substantial body of established facts. In other words, it should be one which judges accept

as being the most likely.

vii. Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time. One should not use

even an excellent hypothesis, if the same cannot be tested in reasonable time for one

cannot spend a life-time collecting data to test it.

viii. Hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for explanation. This means

that by using the hypothesis plus other known and accepted generalizations, one should

be able to deduce the original problem condition. Thus hypothesis must actually explain

what it claims to explain; it should have empirical reference.

OBJECTIONS AGAINST STATING HYPOTHESES

The following objections are raised against stating hypotheses which are directional in nature

• One is that hypotheses bias the researcher in favor of certain conclusions or retain the

hypotheses.
 • Another is that in his pursuit of the stating hypothesis the researcher may overlook other

possibly worthwhile hypotheses.

• The statement of hypotheses in some situations also may appear premature.

• A directional hypothesis needs some theoretical rationale but in some situations there is

very little background information about them.

• The researcher may decide to defer any hypothesis or theories until he has some

empirical evidence upon which is to base them.

• The hypotheses are stated in vacuum. These should be concerned with a situation in

which it can be experienced.

• The directional hypotheses should be so stated as to reveal the role of variables involved

in the investigation.

The overall consensus is in favor of stating hypotheses whenever they are feasible.

USES OF HYPOTHESES IN EDUCATIONAL RESEARCHES

1. Hypotheses are indispensable for experimental researches. The experiments are conducted

to collect empirical data to verify hypotheses. The experimental method or experimental designs

are based on hypotheses. Hypotheses are the crucial aspects of such researches.

2. In normative survey research the investigator may or may not employ hypothetical type

thinking, depending upon the purpose of the research study. Hypotheses are essential for

analytical studies and there is little scope in descriptive type studies.

3. In historical research the purpose may be either to produce a faithful record of the past events

irrespective of present day problem or to extend the experience with phenomena in the present to

past in order to make the view of the phenomena. There is a little scope of hypotheses in

historical research because hypothesis has the future reference and its verification on empirical
data. Case study method has no scope for constructing hypotheses because it is developmental

type study.

4. In complex casual research the hypotheses have important role in such investigations. These

types of studies are conceptual in nature whereas historical are more factual in nature. Therefore

formulation of hypothesis is a crucial step of this type of studies.

CONCLUSION

The hypothesis is a tentative statement of expected relationships among variables or solution of a

problem. Hypotheses are generally derived from a theoretical framework, but may also be

derived from empirical relationships among variables. The research activities are planned to

verify the hypothesis and not to find out the solution of the problem or to seek an answer of a

question. It is very essential to a research worker to understand the meaning and nature of

hypothesis. The researcher always plan or formulate a hypothesis in the begining of the problem.

Hypotheses are usually expressed as positive or negative. A positive hypothesis states that as the

independent variable increases so does the dependent variable. A negative hypothesis says that

an increase in the independent variable is associated with a decrease in the dependent variable.

When two variables show no relationship they are said to be independent of one another.

The testing of hypothesis becomes meaningless if any one of the aspects of your study design,

sampling procedure, method of data collection, analysis of data, statistical procedure applied or

conclusion drawn is faulty or inappropriate. This can lead to erroneous verification of a

hypothesis.
REFERENCE

1. Gold, J. R; (1991); Teaching Geography in Higher Education: a manual of good

practice, (Oxford, Basil Blackwell Ltd.).

2. Kothari C. R (2004); Research Methodology, Methods and Techniques, New Age

International Limited Publishers New Delhi, India

3. Ranjit K. (2005); Research methodology: a step-by-step guide for beginners, Sage

Publications Limited, London

4. Rilwani M. L (2005); Statistics for Environmental and Social Sciences, Easy-way

Computers/ Printing Benin City, Nigeria

5. Worsley A. (2003); Developing external links through teaching and learning in

geography and environmental science: the use of the mini-conference’ Journal Of

Geography In Higher Education.

6. Yogesh K. S (2006); Fundamental of Research Methodology & Statistics, New Age

International Limited Publishers New Delhi, India

7. HYPOTHESIS TESTING - http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HypothesisTesting.html

8. Hypothesis, www.wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn