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Corporate Finance
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Strategy Consulting
James A. Seale
President
Brett M. Carmel
Managing Director
Jeremy F. Rohen
Managing Director
Global
Felipe Bueno Viesca
V. Shiv Krishnan
Managing Director
Update
Martin B. Cohen
Senior Director
Paul Roessel
Senior Director
Contents
www.sealeassociates.com
United States & Canada
M&A Activity
U.S. Financial Sponsor Activity Falls 63% in 2nd Half of 2007
Total U.S. M&A activity in 2007 reached $1.6 trillion despite a dramatic decrease in financial sponsor activity in the second half of the year.
U.S. financial sponsor buy-side activity fell 63% through the second half of 2007 to US$126.4 billion from the US$340.8 billion of activity in the
first half of the year. The weak credit market is expected to keep financial buyers on the sidelines through early 2008. However, cross-border
investment in U.S. M&A is on the rise, driven by strengthened foreign currency and large pools of investment capital derived from natural
resources and exports.
Deal Volume Deal Value (US$ Billions) Value (US$ Billions) % of Total U.S. Volume
Market Trends
LTM Equity Market Performance Treasury & Government Issue Yields
20% Dow Jones Russel 2000 NASDAQ United States Canada
S&P 500 S&P M idcap
15% 30-Jan 1 Year Ago 30-Jan 1 Year Ago
3 Month 2.33% 5.01% 3.41% 4.17%
10%
6 Month 2.31% 4.98% 3.40% 4.20%
5% 1 Year 2.31% 5.10% 3.35% 4.23%
5 Year 2.74% 4.82% 3.50% 4.13%
0%
10 Year 3.58% 4.83% 3.88% 4.22%
-5% Source: Bankrate.com and Bank of Canada
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Market Trends
LTM Equity Market Performance LTM Currency Performance Versus U.S. Dollar
50% M EX ARG
25%
M XN ARS
40% BRA CHI
20% BRL CLP
30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
0% 5%
-10% 0%
-20% -5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Yahoo! Finance Source: OANDA Corporation
$700 4,000
$600 3,500
Other Economic Indicators
% Change on Year Ago
$500 3,000
2,500 Consumer Prices Gross Domestic Product
$400
2,000 Latest 1 Year Ago Q3 2008F 2009F
$300
1,500 Britain +2.1 Dec +3.0 +3.3 +1.9 +2.2
$200 1,000 France +2.6 Dec +1.5 +2.2 +1.8 +2.0
$100 500
Germany +2.8 Dec +1.4 +2.5 +1.9 +2.1
$0 -
Italy +2.6 Dec +1.9 +1.9 +1.3 +1.5
Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07
Spain +4.2 Dec +2.7 +3.8 +2.4 +2.3
Deal Volume Deal Value ($ billions) Source: The Economist
Market Trends
LTM Equity Market Performance LTM Currency Performance Versus U.S. Dollar
25% SX5P FTSE 15%
Euro British Pound Swiss Franc
CAC DAX
20%
10%
15%
10% 5%
5%
0%
0%
-5% -5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Yahoo! Finance Source: OANDA Corporation
Asian M&A activity (excluding Japan) reached a record high of $449 Current 1 Year Ago
3-month 10-year 3-month 10-year
billion in 2007, a 55% increase over the US$290 billion announced in
China 4.44% 4.65% 3.10% 3.06
2006. While India remains a small portion of global M&A activity, the Hong Kong 3.40% 3.33% 3.96% 3.71
value of announced deals involving Indian targets rose 150% in 2007 India 7.33% 7.98% 7.12% 7.67
to US$70 billion. In addition, $19 billion (27%) of the Indian total Japan 0.73% 1.50% 0.46% 1.75%
involved financial sponsors. Singapore 2.38% 2.66% 3.41% 2.98
South Korea 5.80% 5.78% 4.87% 4.91
Announced Asian-Target Transactions Source: The Economist
$140 3,500
$120 3,000 Other Economic Indicators
$100 2,500 % Change on Year Ago
$80 2,000
Consumer Prices Gross Domestic Product
$60 1,500
Latest 1 Year Ago Q3 2007F 2008F
$40 1,000
China +6.9 Nov +1.9 +11.5 +10.1 +9.6
$20 500
Hong Kong +3.4 Nov +2.2 +6.2 +4.8 +5.7
$0 - India +5.5 Nov +6.3 +8.9 +7.7 +7.2
Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07
Japan +0.6 Nov +0.3 +1.9 +1.4 +1.9
Deal Volume Deal Value (US$ Billions) Singapore +4.2 Nov +0.5 +6.0 +4.8 +4.7
South Korea +3.6 Dec +2.1 +5.2 +4.7 +4.7
Source: Thomson Financial Source: The Economist
Market Trends
LTM Equity Market Performance LTM Currency Performance Versus U.S. Dollar
195% Tokyo HK 15% CNY INR
Shang/Shen Bombay JPY KRW
165% 12%
135% 9%
105% 6%
75% 3%
45% 0%
15% -3%
-15% -6%
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Yahoo! Finance Source: OANDA Corporation
For More Information: Seale & Associates is a global boutique investment bank
applying a process driven approach to a wide array of services,
James A. Seale including mergers and acquisitions, corporate finance, and
President enterprise level strategy consulting. Our professionals are
jseale@sealeassociates.com
trusted advisors maintaining a high level of quality and integrity
Brett M. Carmel
while presenting innovative ideas and solutions to address our
Managing Director client's most complex dealings. We believe our success as a
bcarmel@sealeassociates.com firm can be measured in the strong references from our
diversified global client base.
Jeremy F. Rohen
Managing Director
jrohen@sealeassociates.com
Paul Roessel
Senior Director
proessel@sealeassociates.com
William H. Purcell
Senior Director
wpurcell@sealeassociates.com
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