year Sr.

No QTR Total Sales SUMMARY OUTPUT

1 Q1 4,009,124
206 2 Q2 4,088,000 Regression Statistics
3 Q3 4,224,558 Multiple R 0.89877501203
4 Q4 4,095,676 R Square 0.80779652225
5 Q1 4,313,888 Adjusted R Square 0.79768054974
6 Q2 4,394,644 Standard Error 807459.45688
2007
7 Q3 4,282,602 Observations 21
8 Q4 4,189,058
9 Q1 4,277,037 ANOVA
10 Q2 4,444,292 df SS
2008
11 Q3 5,104,744 Regression 1 52063791147676
12 Q4 5,441,560 Residual 19 12387824715604
13 Q1 6,013,665 Total 20 64451615863280
14 Q2 5,927,240
2009
15 Q3 5,326,063 Coefficients Standard Error
16 Q4 6,603,411 Intercept 2769774.08571 365380.4494974
17 Q1 6,395,633 X Variable 1 260029.446753 29098.81897245
18 Q2 7,756,660
2010
19 Q3 8,176,405
20 Q4 9,206,949
21 Q1 9,960,849
22 Q2
2011
23 Q3
24 Q4

linear trend analysis:

linear trend analysis assumed a constant
period by period unit change in an
important economic variable over time.

A linear trend can be obtain by using a Least

Squares Method. The line has the equation
y= a+bt where t= 1,2,3…, b = slop of the line
and a = value of y when t = 0

the general equation for a trend line

S= a+bt
where,
s= forecast
t = time value
a = y intercept
b = slope of the line

S= a+bt

2769774.09+260029.44*22= 8490421.77
2769774.09+260029.44*23= 8750451.21
2769774.09+260029.44*24= 9010480.65
R2 = 81 %

81 % changes in dependent variables are explained by

independent variable and only 19 % dependent variables
are not explained. So, model is very good

MS F Significance F
5.21E+13 79.85357 3.12E-08
6.52E+11

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
7.580521 3.695E-07 2005024 3534524 2005024 3534524
8.936082 3.12E-08 199124.9 320934 199124.9 320934
 Sr.No Years QTR Cost
1 Q1 3,265,302 Q22
2 Q2 3,425,494 Q23
206
3 Q3 3,574,451 Q24
4 Q4 3,440,867 Q25
5 Q1 3,573,285 Q26
6 Q2 3,691,194 Q27
2007
7 Q3 3,630,288 Q28
8 Q4 3,440,487 Q29
9 Q1 3,485,500 Q30
10 Q2 3,918,986 Q31
2008
11 Q3 4,431,748 Q32
12 Q4 4,462,623 Q33
13 Q1 4,540,644 Q34
14 Q2 3,918,986 Q35
2009
15 Q3 4,431,748 Q36
16 Q4 7,682,604 Q37
17 Q1 4,753,429 Q38
18 Q2 6,448,717
2010
19 Q3 6,589,867
20 Q4 7,302,776
21 Q1 7,822,463
22 Q2
2011
23 Q3
24 Q4

S = a +
S= 2373232.3+207764.4*22= 69440
SUMMARY OUTPUT S= 2373232.3+207764.4*23= 71518
S= 2373232.3+207764.4*24= 73595
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.84554366 R2 = 71%
R Square 0.71494407
Adjusted R Square 0.69994113 71 % changes in dependent variables are explained by
Standard Error 835158.174 independent variable and only 0.29 % dependent variab
Observations 21 are not explained. So, model is good

ANOVA
df SS MS Significance F
Regression 1 33237861166071 3.3237861E+13 1.39197537E-06
Residual 19 13252294346741 697489176144
Total 20 46490155512812

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Lower 95%

Intercept 2373232.3 377914.292212 6.2798162273 1582248.602378
X Variable 1 207764.418 30097.01146108 6.90315775872 144770.649365

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 2580996.72 684305.2770563
2 2788761.14 636732.8588745
3 2996525.56 577925.4406926
4 3204290 236577.0225108
5 3412054.4 161230.604329
6 3619818.81 71375.18614719
7 3827583.23 -197295.232035
8 4035347.65 -594860.650216
9 4243112.07 -757612.068398
10 4450876.49 -531890.48658
11 4658640.9 -226892.904762
12 4866405.32 -403782.322944
13 5074169.74 -533525.741126
14 5281934.16 -1362948.15931
15 5489698.58 -1057950.57749
16 5697463 1985141.004329
17 5905227.41 -1151798.41385
18 6112991.83 335725.1679654
19 6320756.25 269110.7497836
20 6528520.67 774255.3316017
21 6736285.09 1086177.91342
 6944050
7151814
7359578
7567343
7775107
7982872
8190636
8398400
8606165
8813929
9021694
9229458
9437223
9644987
9852751
10060516
10268280

S = a + bt
2373232.3+207764.4*22= 6944049.5
2373232.3+207764.4*23= 7151813.5
2373232.3+207764.4*24= 7359577.9

ndent variables are explained by

and only 0.29 % dependent variables
model is good
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
3164216.007146 1582248.6024 3164216.007146
270758.1869986 144770.64937 270758.1869986