Growing Indian presence in Afghanistan:

Implications for Pakistan

By

Masood Ur Rehman Khattak

Email: Masood.khatak@gmail.com

“Increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions

and encourage Pakistani countermeasures.”

General Stanly Mcrystal

Former Commander ISAF. 1

Pakistan shares more than 2,912 km border with India and 2,430 km with Afghanistan.2
Pakistan’s relations with both these states have never been cordial. Both states play an
important role in the strategic calculus of Pakistan. Pakistan faces credible threats from
both these states. Geographical proximity with India and Afghanistan has put Pakistan in
critical situation. Hostile relations with India and Afghanistan have threatened the
security of Pakistan. Pakistan has to allocate its most of resources on these two fronts to
safeguard its borders.

Keeping in mind Indian strategic thinking over the years Pakistan have to analyze the
future threat to its sovereignty and integrity from Indian presence in Afghanistan.
Furthermore Indian increasing influence in Afghanistan is also a source of concern for
Pakistan for geopolitical and geo-strategic reasons.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have never been so cordial in the past except in the
Taliban era, when Pakistan had no credible threats from Afghanistan, but after 9/11 and
change in the geo-political structure of Afghanistan, India entered in Afghanistan’s great
game. India got favorable support from the newly formed Karzai government.

To counter Taliban and Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan India strengthened the

defence of the Northern Alliance by providing high-altitude warfare equipment worth of
$ 10 million through its Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Indian defence advisers
provided technical advice to the Northern Alliance.3
Indian role in Afghanistan is considered to be a source of concern for Pakistan.
According to western analyst Frank Cook;

“India’s increasing role in Afghanistan through reconstruction projects and diplomatic

efforts is also of concern to Pakistan. India’s influence could lead to a strategic
encirclement of Pakistan.”4

Pakistan would never allow strategic cuddle by India. Pakistan has always reiterated its
position on Afghanistan that it wants peace and stability in Afghanistan, because peace
and stability is paramount for peace and stability in Pakistan. International community
must refrain India from its covert operations in Afghanistan against Pakistan. India is
actively involved in Afghanistan; it is working in Afghanistan to build its infrastructure
and roads to undermine Pakistan’s influence. Recently India has built an important 218-
km road that links Zaranj on the Iran-Afghan border and Delaram in south Afghanistan
road which can lessen the Afghan dependence on Pakistan. Such development in
Afghanistan would seriously affect the Pakistan’s strategic importance in the region.

Moreover India has also pledged $1.2 billion aid to Afghanistan for different
reconstruction projects ranging from roads and bridges to power stations and parliament
in which over 2,000 Indians are involved.4 Furthermore India will also build the Pul-e-
Khumri to Kabul transmission line and sub-station at Chimtala Charikar.5
Furthermore her other projects in Afghanistan involves reconstruction of Selma Dam in
Herat, hydro-electric power projects and electricity dual transmission lines. India has also
provided assistance to Afghanistan in terms of training for education development, health
care and training to Afghan diplomats and police. India will continue to have a strategic
presence in Afghanistan even if the US and NATO Forces leave Afghanistan.6 Indian
plans to stay in Afghanistan and its covert activities against Pakistan in guise of
development and reconstruction in Afghanistan would seriously hamper peace and
stability of the region. It would seriously obstruct Pakistan’s efforts against militancy and
terrorism.

Moreover India has been the largest donor among the regional countries to Afghanistan,
pledged an additional $ 50 million aid, total Indian assistance for Afghan reconstruction
is $ 650 million.7 Such assistance to Afghanistan would give India more access in it,
Afghan government would allow India to carry out its malicious covert activities against
Pakistan. Pakistan faces two front war dilemma from Indian presence in Afghanistan.
India could open another front for Pakistan from Afghanistan and put Pakistan in
precarious situation.

India after 9/11 started increasing its influence in neighboring Afghanistan, In 2007 India
established a military base at Ayni in Tajikistan. The base is of strategic importance. A
base at Ayni allows India to respond rapidly to any emerging threats from Pakistan. It
also gives New Delhi a limited but significant capability to inject Special Forces into
hostile theatres and when the situation demands in the event of military confrontation
with Pakistan, India would be able to strike Pakistan’s rear from Tajik soil Ayni.8
India will surely get the support of anti-Pakistan Afghan regime for its malicious
activities inside Pakistan, but any misadventure would be costly for her, because pro-
Pakistani tribesmen would be the first line of defense for Pakistan.

Pakistan considers India's growing influence in Afghanistan as a threat. India opened

consulates in Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, and Kandahar. According to Pakistan,
these consulates are providing cover to Indian intelligence agencies to carry out covert
operations against Pakistan, as well as exacerbate separatism in Pakistan's Balochistan
province.

Pakistan would definitely go for countermeasures to undermine Indian covert and overt
operations against Pakistan from Afghanistan. Indian presence at Eastern border and its
presence in Afghanistan pose a severe security challenge to Pakistan. India must refrain
from provocative strategies against Pakistan and it should work together with Pakistan to
root out militancy, terrorism and its causes from the region. It must understand that
Pakistan has suffered the most in fighting terrorism.

Pakistan would never accept any negative Indian role in Afghanistan. America must
ensure this concern if it wants to stabilise Afghanistan. India and Pakistan ought to
believe that proxy war in Afghanistan will benefit none; they must join hands together for
the peace and stability of Afghanistan, only then long term peace and serenity could be
expected in Afghanistan.
References

1. “COMISAF’S Initial Assessment”, International Security Assistance Force,

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf?
hpid=topnews, (accessed on November 20, 2009), p 11.

2. Muhammad Omar Iftikhar, “Geography: The borders of Pakistan”, The Dawn, October 17, 2009.

3. Fahmida Ashraf, “India–Afghanistan Relations: Post-9/11”, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad,

ISSI Journal, XXVII, no. 2, summer 2007.

4. Frank Cook, “Afghanistan: A Turning Point?”, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, http://www.nato-

pa.int/default.asp?SHORTCUT=1783, (accessed on December 5, 2009).

5. “With Pakistan on mind, India, Afghanistan open crucial road”, Tha Indian,
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/with-pakistan-on-mind-india-afghanistan-open-crucial-road-
lead_100145940.html, (accessed on October 12, 2009).

6. Dr. Subhash Kapila, “Afghanistan: India Has Legitimate Strategic Interests in Its Stability”, South Asian
Analysis Group, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org, (accessed on December 1, 2009).

7. Vishal Chandra, “Import of Afghan President’s Visit to India”, Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses,
http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/ImportofAfghanPresidentsVisittoIndia_VChandra_260406,
(accessed on December 5, 2009).

8. Fahmida Ashraf, “India–Afghanistan Relations: Post-9/11”, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, Op

Cit.