SWOT ANALYSIS OF

CANADA

CANADA
 The name Canada comes from the Iroquois word for town, establishment or set of

cabins, referring to the site that is now the city of Quebec. The explorer Jacques Cartier

discovered Canada. Initially populated by native Inuit, First Nation, and Métis peoples

(ONLINE--thecommonwealth.org), many French and British citizens emigrated to Canada;

the competition between these two countries was resolved after the Seven Year’s War, when

the Treaty of Paris gave control of Canada to England in 1763.

At that time most of the population was French but in the following decades

thousands of British colonists emigrated to Canada from the British Islands and the American

colonies. In 1873 a parliamentary federal government was established under the British

crown. Canada was proclaimed an independent dominion within the British Empire in

December of 1931. The British crown became monarch of Canada. The British parliament

granted direct authority to the Canadian parliament to run day-to-day operations, although

important legal decisions were still made back in the United Kingdom. Canada finally

obtained its constitutional autonomy in 1982.

Canada is a federation under a system of parliamentary monarchy. They are ruled by

Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain, who is represented by the Governor General, a symbolic

figure with no real authority. Executive authority lies with the prime minister, who is

generally the leader of the political party with the greatest number of benches in the House of

Commons. The prime minister in turn names his cabinet positions from the House (Enciso

2007, 104).

Canada has three political parties in which the majority of power is concentrated; they

include the centrist Liberal Party, the right-leaning Conservative Party, and the left-leaning

New Democratic Party. A fourth player of note, the Bloc Québécois, is a regional party in
Quebec, who supports a separatist position, and generally represents those of French heritage.

The liberal party has governed during 32 of the last 42 years of political life in Canada.

Canada is divided into ten provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New

Brunswick, Newfoundland and Farmer, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and

Saskatchewan. There are also three territories: the Northwest, the Yukon, and Nunavut.

Canada covers most of the North American continent with a surface area slightly

greater than that of the United States. Canada shares an 8,893 kilometer border with the same,

extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west. Canada covers

41% of North America and has the second most surface area of any country on Earth. It has a

varied topography and is rich in natural resources. Canada has huge reserves of oil and large

quantities of fresh water – sixty percent of the world’s lakes are in Canada. The southern part

of the country boasts a robust agricultural sector.

SWOT ANALYSIS
 STRENGTHS

This analysis will begin with an examination of Canada’s internal strengths and

weaknesses. In this era of non-traditional threats to national security, Canada’s geographic

location is one of its greatest strengths. Canada enjoys the natural protection of the harsh

arctic climate to the north; to the west and east lie equally forbidding landscapes in the form

of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Finally, to the south lies the robust security of the United

States, significantly enhanced since the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

In addition to the natural protection of its borders, Canada enjoys the security benefits

of membership in NATO. Initially formed after World War II to resist Communism, NATO

stands as an unequalled military coalition now that the Soviet Union has disappeared.

Although NATO is less united than it has been in the past, the disappearance of the imminent

threat of nuclear war is a welcome improvement in security around the globe.

The defining aspect of Canada’s membership in NATO is its close military alliance

with the United States, especially the joint operations with NORAD. In 2004, Canada added

its missile warning capabilities to NORAD (Canada’s International Policy Statement 2005,

22). Canada renewed its working agreement with the US in May 2006, and with that

agreement NORAD added the mission of maritime warning (Canada First Defence Strategy

2008, 8). A strong commitment to cooperation and interoperability with US forces and

NORAD will ensure a future of enhanced security for Canada.

After twelve consecutive years of liberal party control of the Canadian government,

the conservative party won the election in 2006, running on a platform of increased security

and a modernized military. Security enhancements began after the attacks of 9/11, a full five
years before power was handed over to the opposition party; therefore, completion of security

enhancement plans can be expected to succeed regardless of ruling party. Increased security

includes the establishment of two new Maritime Security Operations Centers in Halifax and

Esquimalt, which will enhance monitoring and security of arctic waters (Canada’s

International Policy Statement 2005, 16). Among many programs, another of note is the

creation of an Integrated Threat Assessment Centre, which will greatly enhance Canadian

intelligence (Ibid.). The Canada First Defense Strategy outlines a twenty year plan to

increase military manning and recapitalize nearly every major war machine in the Army,

Navy and Air Force (Canada First Defense Strategy 2008).

In addition to military measures, a comprehensive security plan was laid out in the

2004 National Security Policy. It includes details of the creation of a new governmental

department overseeing Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, a new executive Cabinet

Committee on Security, Public Health and Emergencies to coordinate and direct national

efforts, and a National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister. Other focus areas include

border security, international security, protection of infrastructure and cyber-security.

Canada responded to the attacks of 9/11 with a comprehensive government overhaul of every

aspect of security for the Canadian citizen, and this may very well be Canada’s greatest

strength.

In the economic arena, Canada finds relative strength in the fact that it has minimal

exposure to toxic US mortgage securities; while the global financial crisis ravages the

industrialized economies of the world, Canada so far is largely unscathed. Although the

global slowdown, the US recession, and the strength of the Canadian dollar have all hurt the

eco, Canada generally enjoys solid budgets, revenue, and debt management. Canada is

extremely strong in natural resources, especially fresh water, oil, natural gas, and timber.

Energy scarcity and climate change stand to increase the value of fresh water and oil going
forward. Finally, Canada has a strong national “green” interest, which should help the

country realize green solutions and industries.

To summarize, Canada has a strong awareness of its security needs, plans to enhance

the military and other security apparatus’, and is abundant in natural resources.

WEAKNESSES
 One of the strengths listed above reveals a current weakness; the fact that Canada is

expanding military manning and modernizing its equipment belies the fact that the military is

overextended, with an aging force structure. This is largely due to budget decisions by the

governments of the nineties, which focused instead on balancing the budget and underfunded

the military.

While this weakness is being addressed, Canada’s greatest potential weakness is not:

the persistent threat of Quebec secession. The secessionists are represented by the Bloc

Quebecois, and in October of 2008 they won 49 of 308 seats in parliament, a number that is

relatively steady in recent years. The current conservative government wooed Quebec

strongly, “offering new provincial powers…and pushing a resolution through parliament

recognizing Quebec as a ‘nation’ within Canada”. These efforts appear to have made little

headway, and the Bloc Quebecois has already agreed to unite with the Liberal and Green

parties to try to oust the ruling Conservatives. The problem remains, and although low in

likelihood, a successful secession would cause a drastic and permanent weakening of Canada.

Another weakness is Canada’s smaller population – approximately 33 million in 2008

-- is approximately ten percent of the population of the US. Although industrialized, Canada

is a relatively small state, with a smaller industrial base, military, budget, and revenue. The

result is less fiscal flexibility. Major projects and changes have to be carefully planned and

executed. This weakness is magnified when considering national power on the international

scene.

Canada is vulnerable to environmental degradation and pollution spillover, especially

from the US. Acid rain has been a hot topic in Canada for decades, and just as Canada

benefits economically due to its proximity to the US, it suffers the pollution.
 Although less exposed in real estate, Canada is still affected by financial crisis. The

Canadian stock market hit a low point of 7647 on 20 November 08, down from a high of

15154 on 18 June 2008. The market (Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX) is currently at 7949.

This loss in value is harming the Canadian economy; businesses are at risk, personal wealth

has dropped, unemployment is up, and government revenues are down. This is creating a

political opportunity for the opposition, as earlier described.

Linked to the crisis is the harm to Canadian exports, which are heavily linked to the

US economy; Canada exports approximately eighty percent of its goods to the US. The US is

in a recession, which will hurt Canada’s exports. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) is

forecast to fall slightly in 2009 before rebounding in 2010.

The crisis has caused a sharp fall in commodity prices, which is making it too

expensive to harvest the massive oil reserves in the tar sands of Alberta. This development

has slowed dramatically; it is estimated that oil must fetch 85-95 dollars per barrel before

these tar sands will be profitable, and oil is currently selling for approximately 40 dollars per

barrel. This is creating a weakness for Canada in the short term.

 THREATS

Canada clearly laid out its perceived external threats in its April 2004 National

Security Policy. It included such traditional threats as terrorism and proliferation of weapons

of mass destruction (WMD). The hazards of failed states and foreign espionage are also

listed. Less traditional threats include natural disasters, organized crime, and pandemics.

Canada also lists critical infrastructure vulnerability as a threat, including the risk of an

electrical blackout and/or cyber attack. Canada was particularly disturbed by the SARS

outbreak, and includes pandemics as a threat.

While a close alliance with the United States brings many economic and security

benefits for Canada, it also brings increased risk of being pulled into a major or continued

confrontation with terrorists. Close economic ties could lead to shared devastation if WMD

are successfully employed on US soil or at a US port; in a worst case scenario, the economic

disruption and damage from such an attack could last for decades.

Rising sea levels associated with climate change post a moderate threat to certain

parts of Atlantic Canada, such as Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick,

however the threats there are manageable; most of Canada’s coasts are largely undeveloped,

and the major urban areas are not particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels.
 OPPORTUNITIES
In general, the external opportunities that await Canada are more likely to occur than

the risks that might manifest from current threats. One of the brightest aspects of the coming

years is the flexibility available to Canada in its choices of national and international

priorities. Canada will continue to enjoy a largely “free ride” off the massive US security

overhauls, which will both keep it safer from traditional threats, as well as provide

opportunities for the best in military equipment and technology, without the costs of research

and development. Canada’s desire to establish international prestige and leadership through

participation in multilateral United Nations (UN) missions is clearly expressed in multiple

official security and strategy documents (Canada’s International Policy Statement 2005, 24-

26; Canada First Defence Strategy 2008, 8-9; Canada NSS 2004, 47-52). With the US

tending to lose global influence, the years leading to 2020 could provide a ripe opportunity

for Canada to assume a leadership position either in the hemisphere, within NATO, or

worldwide through the UN. Recent experience in Afghanistan lends credibility and is

providing invaluable experience as Canada modernizes and recapitalizes its military.

Canada’s French heritage creates internal threats and tensions; however, an

opportunity could exist to help bridge the gap between France and the US, perhaps

revitalizing NATO and bringing a renewed unity and identity to “the West”. Regardless,

enhanced military capability and shared benefits of increased US security will give Canada

the freedom to pursue a wide range of interests at home or abroad.

Although its economy is smaller and less robust than some developed nations, the

future is bright for Canada, for its reserves in fresh water and oil stand to provide strong

revenue streams and growth in the future. Although its development is currently delayed due

to reduced oil prices, there are vast oil reserves in the sands of Alberta, to the tune of 175
billion barrels of oil, second only to Saudi Arabia. Increasing global population and energy

consumption mean a prosperous future for Canada.

As previously stated, a unique benefit of Canada’s near future is flexibility; Canada

has not tended to seek global influence and leadership. If Canada were to wish a return to

isolationism, it could, allowing the US to shoulder the brunt of the attention of terrorists and

global troublemakers.
 SUMMARIZATION OF SWOT ANALYSIS

.STRENGTHS: WEAKNESSES:

- formidable natural boundaries/barriers - older military equipment

- strong alliances - lingering threat of Quebec secession

- planned security enhancements - small population & budget

- minimal exposure to financial crisis - vulnerable to US pollution spillovers

SUPPLEMENTARY - world-wide financial crisis

- stable parliamentary democracy SUPPLEMENTARY

- large land mass - difficult control of territory

- sound financial system - need for immigrants

- low corruption - aging population

- strong GDP - little leadership in the world-wide scene

- life expectancy 80 years

- 99% literacy rate

- rich in natural resources

- robust communication infrastructure

- no internal or external armed conflicts

- low crime rate

 THREATS: OPPORTUNITIES:

- terrorism - free ride off US security enhancements

- WMD - increasing global leadership

- failed & failing states - bridge transatlantic gap; energize NATO

- natural disasters - strong economic future (oil, fresh water)

- transnational organized crime - flexibility in national approach

- pandemics

- critical infrastructure vulnerabilities

- linked to US in eyes of terrorists

- linked to economic fallout of WMD

attack on the US

- climate change in some regions