Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Note: A small red triangle in the upper right corner of a cell indicates that a comment has
been inserted. Point your mouse over the cell and the comment will appear.
Worksheets:
This spreadsheet consists of the following worksheets, divided into three sections:
Caution: If you enter less than five years of historical information, certain worksheet
formulas may have to be revised.
Note: Some additional worksheets (Answer Reports 1 & 2) may appear in the spreadsheet
due to the running of Solver.
Macros:
No macros have been used in this spreadsheet to give everyone some assurance that no viruses
are contained in the spreadsheet. However, you are free to add your own macros to save time.
Tools > Macro > Record New Macro
Excel Functions:
This spreadsheet uses certain financial functions (such as =TREND) which might not be
found in your version of Microsoft Excel. To take full advantage of financial and statistical
functions, you should install the Add On package titled: Analysis TookPak. Go to the main
tool bar, select Tools => Add-Ins => check the Analysis TookPak option, insert your
Excel CD and install the Analysis ToolPak. Also, you might want to install the Solver
Add-in since this is useful for solving special forecasting issues (such as finding the
optimal exponential factor).
Compatibility:
This spreadsheet was created with Microsoft Excel 2000. Older versions of Excel (such as 97)
may not be compatible with this spreadsheet.
Wksh2
Wksh4
Wksh6
Wksh8
Wksh10
Wksh12
Wksh14
Wksh16
certain worksheet
2-4 Most Current Period 2005 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-5 Previous Period 2004 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-6 2nd Previous Period 2003 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-7 3rd Previous Period 2002 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-8 4th Previous Period 2001 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
Working Capital:
Current Assets 3,895 5,025 5,763 6,804 7,511
Current Liabilities 4,312 6,245 7,375 8,590 9,687
Working Capital (417) (1,220) (1,612) (1,786) (2,176)
Liquid Capital:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 990 950 901 998 870
Marketable Securities 10 15 12 6 11
Accounts Receivable 1,020 1,550 1,830 2,250 3,040
Notes Receivable 0 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities (4,312) (6,245) (7,375) (8,590) (9,687)
Long Term Debt (1,160) (1,750) (2,600) (3,600) (3,950)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Liquid Capital (3,452) (5,480) (7,232) (8,936) (9,716)
The following valuation indicators are very simple and basic; they are used as quick, rough estmates.
Market Capitalization:
Market Cap - Common Stk $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867
Market Cap - Preferred Stk $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Total Market Capitalization $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867
Present Value:
Normalized Cash Flow Weight %'s 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 30.00% 40.00%
Key Financial Data for
X Y Z Corporation USA
millions of dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Normalized Cash Flow 794
Number of Future Periods 15
Required Rate of Return 11.00%
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $5,711
Present Value of Selling Price $315,000 <= estimated selling price $65,836
Present Value of Business $71,547
Revenue Multiplier:
Recent Gross Revenues 27,448
Average Competitive Rev Multiplier 3.14
Value based on Revenue Multiple $86,187
Capitalization of Earnings:
Normalized Net Income Weights % 5.00% 5.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Normalized Net Income 6,681
Capitalization Rate 12.00%
Nominal Growth Rate 3.50%
Net Capitalization Rate 8.50%
Value based on Earnings $78,605
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income 1.10 1.25 1.14 1.08 1.11
Liquidity Index:
Cash - Days Removed 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Balance 990 950 901 998 870
Cash Balance Total 0 0 0 0 0
Marketable Sec - Days Removed 11 12 16 15 14
Marketable Securities Balance 10 15 12 6 11
Marketable Securities Total 110 180 192 90 154
Receivables - Days Removed 34 30 31 32 36
Receivable Balance 1,020 1,550 1,830 2,250 3,040
Receivable Balance Total 34,257 46,158 56,217 72,213 110,751
Inventory - Days Removed 79 61 67 72 71
Inventory Balance 1,005 1,360 1,650 1,900 2,060
Inventory Balance Total 79,745 83,261 110,092 136,018 146,676
Other - Days Removed 16 22 26 21 19
Other Current Assets Balance 870 1,150 1,370 1,650 1,530
Other Current Assets Total 13,920 25,300 35,620 34,650 29,070
Liquidity Index (Days) 33 31 35 36 38
Z Score:
1.2 x (working capital / total assets) (0.03) (0.07) (0.08) (0.07) (0.08)
1.4 x (retained earn / total assets) 0.42 0.46 0.54 0.65 0.82
3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) 0.74 0.94 1.09 1.06 1.03
.6 x (market value equity / b.v. debt) 15.46 12.78 11.13 7.53 5.90
.999 x (sales / total assets) 0.70 0.78 0.82 0.77 0.80
Z Score 17.29 14.90 13.51 9.94 8.48
Receivable Turnover:
Credit Sales 11,520 15,750 20,080 23,200 26,500
Average Receivable Balance 1,060 1,285 1,690 2,040 2,645
Receivable Turnover 10.9 12.3 11.9 11.4 10.0
Inventory Turnover:
Average Inventory Balance 1,046 1,183 1,505 1,775 1,980
Inventory Turnover 4.6 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.1
Days in Inventory 79 61 67 72 71
Ratio Analysis for READ ONLY - PLEASE
X Y Z Corporation USA BUY UNRESTRICTED
VERSION AT WEB SITE
DOWNLOAD PAGE - $65
We added the following two ratios to assess if the Company has excessive growth:
4-13 Provision for Taxes (790) (1,005) (2,050)
8-17 Trading Ratio - Company 1.24 1.37 1.52
8-18 Trading Ratio - Industry 1.26 1.28 1.31
Source for Benchmark Data: Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios by Leo Troy, Prentice Ha
0.30
Acid Test Ratio -
0.20 Company
0.10
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
0.60
Current Ratio -
0.40 Company
0.20
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
Current Ratio -
R
0.40 Company
0.20
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
Turnover -
8.00 Industry
6.00 Receivable
Turnover -
4.00 Company
2.00
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
35
30 Days to Collect
25 A/R - Industry
20 Days to Collect
15 A/R - Company
10
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
Inventory
4.00 Turnover -
3.00 Industry
Inventory
2.00 Turnover -
1.00 Company
0.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
Turnover Rate
Inventory
4.00 Turnover -
3.00 Industry
Inventory
2.00 Turnover -
1.00 Company
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
80
60 Days in Inventory
- Industry
Days in Inventory
40
- Company
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
50.00%
Gross Profit
Gross Profit Margin
70.00%
60.00%
25.00%
Net Profit Margin
20.00% - Industry
15.00% Net Profit Margin
- Company
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
30.00%
25.00% Return on Total
Assets - Industry
20.00%
Return on Total
15.00% Assets -
10.00% Company
5.00%
0.00%
01
02
03
04
05
20
20
20
20
20
Periods
Assets - Industry
20.00%
Return on Tota
Return on Total
15.00% Assets -
10.00% Company
5.00%
0.00%
01
02
03
04
05
20
20
20
20
20
Periods
35.00%
30.00%
25.00% Return on Total
Assets - Industry
20.00%
Return on Total
15.00% Assets -
10.00% Company
5.00%
0.00%
01
02
03
04
05
20
20
20
20
20
Periods
50%
Debt to Equity -
40% Industry
30% Debt to Equity -
Company
20%
10%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
50
40 Times Interest
Earned - Industry
30
Times Interest
20 Earned -
Company
10
Times Interest Earned
60
2.50
2.00
Trading Ratio -
Industry
Ratio
1.50
Trading Ratio -
1.00 Company
0.50
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
2.50
2.00
Net Sales to Net
Worth - Industry
Ratio
1.50
Net Sales to Net
Worth -
1.00
Company
0.50
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
Worth -
1.00
Company
0.50
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
ubject company.
nchmark data,
y" line will be null
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
0.49 0.48
0.38 0.40
1.08 1.07
0.79 0.78
8.20 8.30
11.37 10.02
41 41
32 36
4.30 4.38
5.10 5.13
89 82
72 71
1.68 1.69
0.77 0.80
62.00% 63.00%
63.36% 62.96%
19.00% 20.00%
31.98% 28.06%
34.00% 36.00%
27.33% 23.23%
19.00% 20.00%
33.42% 25.89%
34% 32%
57% 53%
39 43
37 35
(2,105) (2,660)
1.44 1.49
1.30 1.27
1.45 1.63
1.22 1.20
Current Ratio -
Industry
Current Ratio -
Company
Current Ratio -
Company
son
ceivable
rnover -
dustry
ceivable
rnover -
mpany
05
ison
s to Collect
- Industry
s to Collect
- Company
son
entory
nover -
ustry
entory
nover -
mpany
entory
nover -
ustry
entory
nover -
mpany
005
ays in Inventory
ndustry
ays in Inventory
Company
Asset Turnover -
ndustry
Asset Turnover -
Company
ss Profit
ss Profit
gin - Industry
ss Profit
gin -
mpany
et Profit Margin
ndustry
et Profit Margin
Company
eturn on Total
ssets - Industry
eturn on Total
ssets -
ompany
ssets - Industry
eturn on Total
ssets -
ompany
on
eturn on Total
sets - Industry
eturn on Total
sets -
ompany
Debt to Equity -
Industry
Debt to Equity -
Company
mes Interest
rned - Industry
mes Interest
rned -
mpany
mes Interest
rned - Industry
mes Interest
rned -
mpany
Trading Ratio -
Industry
Trading Ratio -
Company
et Sales to Net
Worth - Industry
et Sales to Net
Worth -
ompany
Worth -
ompany
Horizontal Analysis for
X Y Z Corporation USA
Horizontal Analysis expresses change between periods as percentages for each account in
the financial statements. The basic formula for horizontal analysis is:
% change = (most recent period - previous period) / previous period
Growth in Total Equity (Net Worth) 6.11% 14.43% 19.21% 27.00% 2.00%
expressed in percentages
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Account Title 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Income Before Extra Ord Items 24.08% 27.91% 28.41% 30.76% 26.18%
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700) (2,600)
Acquisitions in Other Co's (500) (750) (1,200) (650) (350)
Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000) (7,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350) (9,950)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings 26,190 33,222 40,365 47,748 55,126
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500) (500)
Treasury Stock (3,550) (5,550) (7,050) (8,050) (8,550)
Total Equity 25,540 31,572 38,715 46,098 53,976
Before we adopt a regression model, it's a good idea to generate a scatter graph of the actual data
and observe if there is a clear trend for fitting a straight regression line into the data:
Total Revenues
30,000
25,000
Total Revenues
20,000
15,000 Row 10
10,000
5,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006
Periods
The calculation of linear values is determined by defining the slope of the line and the y intercept:
Order Total Rev Linear
Formula for Linear Trendline: Year variable x actual y Value y
2001 1 12,076 12,683
y=(m*x)+b 2002 2 16,719 16,559
2003 3 21,196 20,435
m: slope of line 2004 4 24,737 24,311
x: independent variable 2005 5 27,448 28,188
b: y intercept 2001 6 32,064
2002 7 35,940
2003 8 39,816
2004 9 43,692
2005 10 47,569
The degree of linear fit with the actual data can be expressed as R Square 0.9888
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700)
Acquisitions (500) (750) (1,200) (650)
Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings 21,164 22,977 24,944 26,566
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500)
Treasury Stock (3,550) (5,550) (7,050) (8,050)
Total Equity 20,514 21,327 23,294 24,916
External Financing Required (EFR) (916) (1,894) (3,354) (4,248)
of the actual data
d the y intercept:
Slope Intercept
m factor b factor
3876.20 8806.60
Annual
Period
2005
28,188
(10,367)
(6,807)
11,014
(3,009)
271
8,275
8,275
550
0
6
(1,047)
1,357
9,141
35
1,700
0
1,735
(2,600)
(350)
(7,000)
(9,950)
650
100
0
750
(500)
(7,000)
(500)
0
(8,000)
(6,324)
(20,836)
(27,160)
(27,160)
0
2,819
2,255
1,832
(20,254)
43,000
(5,540)
37,460
15,205
3,862
650
57,177
36,923
4,792
3,383
15
1,691
9,881
4,500
800
5,300
15,181
0
2,200
5,700
27,841
(500)
(8,550)
26,691
(4,949)
Home Wksh2 ProForma Financials (Exponential Smoothing / Weighted Moving Average)
Wksh3 Wksh4 X Y Z Corporation USA
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
Wksh9 Wksh10 the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
Wksh11 Wksh12 exponential smoothing is used to plot a trend over historical data. Additionally, we
active Wksh14 can use a weighted moving average to forecast future periods.
Wksh15 Wksh16 Key Point => If you have a general upward historical trend, weighted average will tend
to underestimate forecasted values and vice versa (downward trend = overestimate).
Exponential Comparison
30,000
25,000
Total Revenues -
otal Revenues
20,000
Historical
Total Revenues -
15,000 Exponential
Total Revenues -
10,000 Wt Moving Avg
Exponential Comparison
30,000
25,000
Total Revenues -
Total Revenues
20,000
Historical
Total Revenues -
15,000 Exponential
Total Revenues -
10,000 Wt Moving Avg
5,000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
Annual Annual
Period Period
2001 2002
Pro Forma Income Statement
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000)
Acquisitions (500) (750)
Purchases of Investments (2,000) (3,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (6,000) (6,750)
Preferred Equity 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings 17,505 14,505
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (3,500)
Treasury Stock (1,550) (1,550)
Total Equity 18,855 17,355
Total Revenues:
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
21,196 24,737 27,448
16,719 21,196 24,737
18,890 21,605 22,965 26,070 26,413 26,316 26,355 26,340
Difference Square
0 0
4,643 21,557,449
4,477 20,043,529
3,541 12,538,681
2,711 7,349,521
12,297,836
Difference Square
971 942,841
1,489 2,217,121
2,306 5,317,636
3,132 9,809,424
4,483 20,100,607
7,677,526
son
Total Revenues -
Historical
Total Revenues -
Exponential
Total Revenues -
Wt Moving Avg
son
Total Revenues -
Historical
Total Revenues -
Exponential
Total Revenues -
Wt Moving Avg
05
20 25 35
1,900 1,800 1,700
0 0 0
1,920 1,825 1,735
0 0 0
2,200 2,200 2,200
5,700 5,700 5,700
10,505 6,505 3,505
(1,000) 0 0
(1,550) (1,550) (1,550)
15,855 12,855 9,855
Instead of copying our forecast into this worksheet, we can simply do scenario analysis directly in
the forecast itself.
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
43,190 48,373
(16,893) (18,920)
(10,513) (11,775)
(3,100) (3,000)
700 700
13,384 15,378
44,301 47,569
(15,327) (16,567)
(10,579) (11,522)
(5,166) (5,705)
271 271
13,500 14,046
Forecast Comparisons
60,000
50,000
Simple
40,000 Projection Model
Total Revenues
Linear Trend
Model
30,000
Wt Moving Avg
Model
20,000 Declining
Growth Model
10,000 Historical Data
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Periods
In addition to using linear models for forecasting, we can apply several non-linear (curve) models:
Logarithmic - Used when rate of change in data suddenly shifts upward or downward.
Power - Used when rate of change in data occurs at a specific rate.
Exponential - Used when rate of change is increasing or decreasing at ever higher rates.
Polynomial - Used when rate of change fluctuates with no pattern.
Logarithmic Trend
Actual Predicted
Formula for Logarithmic Trendline x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 (11,242)
y = ( c * LN (x)) - b 2 16,719 (4,587)
3 21,196 (695)
LN: Natural Logarithm 4 24,737 2,067
5 27,448 4,210
6 5,960
7 7,440
8 8,722
9 9,853
10 10,865
Power Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = b * x^c x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 11,951
2 16,719 17,109
3 21,196 21,104
4 24,737 24,493
5 27,448 27,491
6 30,212
7 32,721
8 35,063
9 37,267
10 39,356
Exponential Trendline
Actual Predicted
x factor Values Value y
y = b * EXP ( c * x ) 1 12,076 13,061
2 16,719 16,007
3 21,196 19,618
4 24,737 24,043
5 27,448 29,465
6 36,111
7 44,256
8 54,238
9 66,472
10 81,464
Polynomial Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = (c2 * x^2) + (c1 * x^1) + b x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 #VALUE!
2 16,719 #VALUE!
3 21,196 #VALUE!
4 24,737 #VALUE!
5 27,448 #VALUE!
6 #VALUE!
7 #VALUE!
8 #VALUE!
9 #VALUE!
10 #VALUE!
80,000
Logarithmic
Total Revenues
60,000 Trendline
Power
40,000 Trendline
Exponential
20,000 Trendline
0 Polynomial
Trendline
(20,000) Actual
Revenues
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
20
20
20
Periods
Variance Analysis of Past Budgets:
Accuracy in the budget process should be examined to determine the degree of error or
variance in the budget process. If the variance is high, this indicates a need to improve
planning techniques within the company. TBD: To be Determined
Ratio Items
Current Ratio - Budgeted 0.92 0.79 0.76
Current Ratio - Actual 0.90 0.80 0.78
% difference from actual 2% -2% -2%
Mean Absolute Error - An absolute value of forecast errors, does not place weight on the
amount of the error. Calculated as the sum of (actual values - predicted values) / n.
Mean Square Error - Similar to Mean Absolute Error, but does place more emphasis on
the amount of error; i.e. an error of 8 is twice as significant as 4. Calculated as the
sum of (actual values - predicted values)^2 / n.
Root Mean Square Error - To make the Mean Square Error useful and comparable to the Mean
Absolute Error, we can take the square root of the Mean Square Error. We can then use this
as a guide to establish an error limit or standard for flagging unacceptable errors.
Actual Forecasted
Example: Total Revenues Period Revenues Revenues
n: total number of periods 1996 12,076 10,500
1997 16,719 14,500
1998 21,196 22,500
1999 24,737 28,500
2000 27,448 30,000
n => 5 Sum =>
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
43,190 48,373
24,311 28,188
26,355 26,340
33,170 31,000
24,737 27,448
33,170 31,000
imple
rojection Model
near Trend
Model
Wt Moving Avg
Model
eclining
rowth Model
istorical Data
Slope Intercept
c factor b factor
9600.92 11242.34
Slope Intercept
c factor b factor
0.52 9.39
11951.33
c2 c1 b
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2,067 4,210 5,960 7,440 8,722 9,853 10,865
24,493 27,491 30,212 32,721 35,063 37,267 39,356
24,043 29,465 36,111 44,256 54,238 66,472 81,464
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
24,737 27,448
Trends
Logarithmic
Trendline
Power
Trendline
Exponential
Trendline
Polynomial
Trendline
Actual
Revenues
2
04
20
the degree of error or
es a need to improve
(Wksht 16)
2004 2000 2001
ce more emphasis on
alculated as the
Budget
Period
Ref 2001
Operating Plan
Financial Plan
Planned Investments:
16-22 Capital Expenditures (4,500)
16-23 Acquisitions in Other Co's (350)
16-24 Purchases of Investments (2,500)
16-25 Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,350)
Per above
Per historical financials
Same formula as used in forecast models
Same formula as used in forecast models
Same formula as used in forecast models
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 0.70 1.00
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$D$23 Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and 1 0 $D$23>=$D$23 Binding 0
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 1.00 $D$24<=$E$23 Binding 0
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 5:19:05 PM
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 2.00%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 5.00%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 35.00%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 60.00%
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value
$I$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 100.00%
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50%
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50%
Final Value
59,853,342
Final Value
0.00%
1.50%
4.50%
34.50%
59.50%