LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - February 2020 PDF

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • February 2020
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
CALENDAR 20
ARGENTINA 21
BRAZIL 36
CHILE INTERVIEW 53
CHILE 55
COLOMBIA 70
MEXICO 85
PERU 101
VENEZUELA 115
OTHER COUNTRIES 123
BOLIVIA 123
ECUADOR 126
PARAGUAY 132
URUGUAY 135
NOTES 141
Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 18 February 2020 JAVIER COLATO
FORECASTS COLLECTED 11 February - 16 February 2020 LATIN AMERICA ECONOMIST
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 16 February 2020
ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE RICARD TORNÉ
NEXT EDITION 17 March 2020 Chief Economist Head of Data Lead Economist
Solutions
ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN
Lead Economist Editor Data Scientist
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR LINDSEY ICE JOAN ARGILAGÓS
Economist Economist Data Analyst
HANNA ANDERSSON JAN LAMMERSEN FREDERICO T. ABREU
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
MASSIMO BASSETTI OLIVER REYNOLDS LAURA AZLOR
STEVEN BURKE ALMANAS STANAPEDIS DAVID CATALÁN
OLGA COSCODAN STEPHEN VOGADO STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
EDWARD GARDNER MAR LOBATO
Economist Junior Data Analyst
YULIANNA VALENCIA
Junior Data Analyst
SARA VALVERDE
Junior Data Analyst
BENCE VÁRADI
Junior Data Analyst
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary Summary February 2020
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7
United States 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.0
Euro Area 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.4
China 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.7 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.3
Japan 2.2 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.8
Latin America 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.6 2.3 6.3 8.2 7.9 6.8 6.0
Centam & Caribbean 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.0
Chile 1.3 4.0 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9
Mexico 2.1 2.1 -0.1 0.9 1.7 6.8 4.8 2.8 3.4 3.5
Mercosur 1.7 0.5 0.3 1.5 2.4 8.0 13.2 13.9 11.1 9.3
Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -1.5 1.7 24.8 47.6 53.8 41.6 32.7
Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.8
Paraguay 5.0 3.4 0.1 3.4 3.8 4.5 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.0
Uruguay 2.6 1.6 0.4 1.5 2.1 6.6 8.0 8.8 7.8 7.3
Venezuela -15.7 -19.6 -30.9 -10.9 -1.8 863 130,060 9,585 2,862 1,112
Andean Com. 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
Bolivia 4.2 4.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.7 1.5 1.5 2.6 3.0
Colombia 1.4 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.2
Ecuador 2.4 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.0
Peru 2.5 4.0 2.2 3.1 3.4 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.3
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

8 9
2018 2019 2020 2021

2018 2019 2020 2021
6
6
3
2
0 0
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World -2.7 -2.5 -3.0 -3.2 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -4.7 -4.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4
Euro Area -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.6
China -3.7 -4.1 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.4
Japan -3.2 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
Latin America -4.8 -4.3 -3.7 -3.7 -3.4 -1.6 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9
Centam & Caribbean -3.0 -2.9 -3.1 -3.1 -2.9 0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3
Chile -2.7 -1.7 -2.5 -4.0 -3.5 -2.1 -3.1 -3.0 -1.7 -1.7
Mexico -1.1 -2.1 -1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -1.7 -1.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.1
Mercosur -7.2 -6.4 -5.5 -4.9 -4.5 -1.6 -2.7 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4
Argentina -5.9 -5.0 -4.3 -3.5 -3.1 -4.9 -5.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.4
Brazil -7.8 -7.1 -5.9 -5.4 -4.9 -0.7 -2.2 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1
Paraguay -1.1 -1.3 -2.8 -1.8 -1.6 3.1 -0.2 -1.1 0.0 -0.2
Uruguay -3.5 -2.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.6
Venezuela -18.2 -20.0 -21.0 -16.5 -11.1 6.1 8.7 7.8 7.4 5.5
Andean Com. -3.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -2.3 -2.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8
Bolivia -7.8 -8.1 -8.0 -7.2 -6.6 -4.8 -4.7 -5.2 -4.9 -4.6
Colombia -3.6 -3.1 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3 -3.9 -4.4 -4.3 -4.0
Ecuador -4.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2
Peru -3.0 -2.3 -1.6 -2.0 -1.8 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-2 3
-4 0
2018 2019 2020 2021

-6 -3
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2020
Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 1.6% -4.2 -2.1 0.0 2.1 4.2 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25
This year, regional growth is expected to bounce back from 2019’s 2018 Nov-19
weak showing as momentum in Brazil strengthens and activity
2019 Dec-19
in Mexico gradually recovers, with both economies supported by
looser monetary conditions. Global trade uncertainty, exacerbated 2020 Jan-20
by the coronavirus outbreak; policy uncertainty domestically; and 2021 Feb-20

renewed social tensions cloud the outlook.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -1.5%

2018
The economy will remain mired in recession this year, although Nov-19
the pace of contraction is expected to ease. Downbeat investor 2019 Dec-19

confidence, runaway inflation and sky-high interest rates will
weigh on domestic demand, while the new levies will hit export 2020 Jan-20
growth. Debt renegotiations and interventionist policies further 2021 Feb-20

cloud the outlook.
BRAZIL | 2020: 2.2%

2018 Nov-19
The outlook for 2020 is favorable. Domestic demand should power
the expansion, driven by improving economic sentiment and looser 2019 Dec-19
monetary policy. Conversely, fiscal tightening will dampen growth,
while the external sector will likely remain lackluster. Delayed 2020 Jan-20
reform efforts ahead of local elections in October represents a risk 2021 Feb-20
to the outlook.
CHILE | 2020: 1.5%

Expectations for this year have deteriorated since the wake of 2018 Nov-19
the protests in October. Capital investment is seen declining on 2019 Dec-19

uncertainties stemming from the drafting of a new constitution,
although modest household spending, thanks to fiscal concessions, 2020 Jan-20
should partly offset the slowdown. Meanwhile, exports should 2021 Feb-20
rebound as easing trade tensions support copper prices.
COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.2%

2018 Nov-19
Economic growth should remain healthy this year, underpinned by
fixed investment growth—amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal 2019 Dec-19
exemptions—and still-solid private consumption growth. Key
risks to the outlook include a fairly elevated external debt burden, 2020 Jan-20
as well as social unrest and political tensions, which could hurt 2021 Feb-20
consumer and investor confidence.
MEXICO | 2020: 0.9%

2018 Nov-19
The economy is expected to recover this year on the back of
stronger consumer spending, buttressed by rising real wages and 2019 Dec-19
upbeat remittances. Increased effectiveness in executing public
spending and investment should also support growth. Depressed 2020 Jan-20
business confidence, an uncertain global trade environment and 2021 Feb-20

the finances of debt-laden Pemex weigh on the outlook, however.
PERU | 2020: 3.1%

2018 Nov-19
Growth looks set to strengthen this year, benefiting from a firmer
domestic economy and a better showing of the external sector. 2019 Dec-19
Looser monetary and fiscal conditions should underpin the
expansion, while modest inflation and healthy wage growth will 2020 Jan-20
likely sustain household spending. Protracted political uncertainty 2021 Feb-20

could weigh on investment, however.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 6.8% 0 15 30 45 60 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5
Regional inflation came in at 7.9% at the outturn of 2020 2018 Nov-19
(December: 7.9%). Flagging economic activity and declining
2019 Dec-19
energy prices have kept price pressures relatively contained
across the region. Argentina and Venezuela are the notable 2020 Jan-20
exceptions, however. Inflation is projected to curb down this year 2021 Feb-20
and remain within monetary authorities’ target overall.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 41.6%

2018 Nov-19
Inflation ticked down in January, coming in at 52.9% (December:
53.8%), and the month-on-month increase in consumer prices 2019 Dec-19
moderated considerably. This year, inflation is expected to remain
elevated amid strong FX pressures and a rapid expansion of 2020 Jan-20
the monetary base, with a return to monetary financing of fiscal 2021 Feb-20
deficits posing further upside risks.
BRAZIL | 2020: 3.7%

Inflation inched down to 4.2% in January from 4.3% in December, 2018 Nov-19
slightly above the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% for the end of 2019 Dec-19
2020. Inflation is projected to soften further this year as labor
market slack and the government’s fiscal austerity are expected 2020 Jan-20
to offset upside pressure from electricity price hikes and a very 2021 Feb-20
weak real.
CHILE | 2020: 3.0%

Inflation jumped to 3.5% in January (December: 3.0%), marking 2018 Nov-19
a three-and-a-half-year high, and nearing the upper bound of the 2019 Dec-19
Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target band. Rapidly rising prices for
food, and recreation and culture, coupled with a strong pass- 2020 Jan-20
through effect, buoyed price pressures in January. Going forward, 2021 Feb-20
inflation is expected to remain within the target band.
COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.3%

2018 Nov-19
Inflation inched down to 3.6% in January from 3.8% in December,
thus moving closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target 2019 Dec-19
range of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Looking ahead,
inflation is seen moderating somewhat amid tighter monetary 2020 Jan-20
policy. 2021 Feb-20
MEXICO | 2020: 3.4%

2018 Nov-19
Inflation climbed to 3.2% in January (December 2019: 2.8%),
thus landing slightly above the midpoint of Banxico’s target 2019 Dec-19
range of 2.0%–4.0%. Core inflation, meanwhile, has proved
sticky, hovering at 3.5%–4.0% for nearly two years now. Inflation 2020 Jan-20
is expected to remain broadly steady going forward, though the 2021 Feb-20
sizeable minimum wage hike is an upside risk.
PERU | 2020: 2.2%

Inflation was unchanged at December’s 1.9% in the first month 2018 Nov-19
of 2020, thus remaining below the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 2019 Dec-19
target range of 2.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Ahead,
price pressures should remain contained, with downside risks 2020 Jan-20
stemming from weaker-than-expected domestic demand. 2021 Feb-20
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 7.65% 0 18 36 54 72 -3 -2 -1 0 1
The central banks of Brazil and Mexico slashed their policy rates in Nov-19
2018
February—marking the fifth consecutive rate cut for both—as part
2019 Dec-19
of efforts to revive growth amid contained inflation. Meanwhile,
policymakers in Chile, Colombia and Peru opted to stand pat, and 2020 Jan-20
Argentina’s monetary authority lowered the rate floor yet again. As

2021 Feb-20
a whole, looser monetary policy is expected ahead.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 36.69%

2018 Nov-19
On 13 February, in a further bid to stimulate the economy, the
Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) decided to reduce the lower 2019 Dec-19
floor for the LELIQ rate to 44.0% from 48.0%, a move which could
prompt a further rapid expansion of liquidity. The BCRA should 2020 Jan-20
continue lowering rates going ahead, although they will likely 2021 Feb-20
remain elevated due to stubbornly-high inflation.
BRAZIL | 2020: 4.47%

At its 4–5 February meeting, the Central Bank delivered its fifth 2018 Nov-19
consecutive rate cut in a bid to buttress the economic recovery, 2019 Dec-19
bringing the SELIC rate to 4.25%. While COPOM struck a hawkish
tone, signaling it would pause its cycle, panelists remain split on 2020 Jan-20
the outlook: Nearly half see the Bank on hold, while roughly the 2021 Feb-20
other half see the Bank raising rates.
CHILE | 2020: 1.49%

On 29 January, the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary 2018 Nov-19
policy rate at 1.75%, in line with market expectations, as it seeks to 2019 Dec-19
preserve an expansionary stance to support the country’s stunted
economy in the aftermath of months of protests. Going forward, 2020 Jan-20
the majority of our analysts expect further easing this year. 2021 Feb-20
COLOMBIA | 2020: 4.28%

Colombia’s Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate 2018 Nov-19
unchanged at 4.25% at its latest Board of Directors meeting on 31 2019 Dec-19

January amid upbeat domestic growth dynamics and within-target
inflation. Going forward, small majority of panelists see the Bank 2020 Jan-20
hiking the rate in 2020. 2021 Feb-20
MEXICO | 2020: 6.34%

2018 Nov-19
At its first meeting of the year on 13 February, Banxico axed the
target rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%, coming in line with market 2019 Dec-19
expectations and marking the fifth consecutive cut. The decision
was unanimous, and was motivated by contained headline 2020 Jan-20
inflation and increased economic slack. The vast majority of our 2021 Feb-20
panelists see Banxico further loosening policy this year.
PERU | 2020: 2.14%

2018 Nov-19
At its 13 February monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of
Peru held the policy interest rate steady at 2.25%, the lowest since 2019 Dec-19
July 2010. Within-target inflation, declining inflation expectations
and strengthening albeit still-soft economic activity prompted the 2020 Jan-20
Bank to hold its ground. This year, the Bank could further loosen 2021 Feb-20
its stance to support demand.
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: -4.1% -60 -40 -20 0 20 -8 -4 0 4 8
All currencies across the region lost ground against the U.S. dollar 2018 Nov-19
over the past month, with the Brazilian real in particular plunging
2019 Dec-19
to a record low. The stark exception was the Mexican peso, which
appreciated on optimism over the signing of the USMCA trade deal 2020 Jan-20
and high domestic real interest rates. Currencies are expected to

2021 Feb-20
continue depreciating this year.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -25.1%

2018 Nov-19
On 14 February, the ARS traded at 61.35 per USD, a 2.4%
depreciation from the same day in January. In recent weeks, 2019 Dec-19
downside pressures stemmed from coronavirus fears, but were
partly cushioned by the BCRA’s exchange controls. Meanwhile, 2020 Jan-20
the parallel-market dollar was priced at a significantly higher rate 2021 Feb-20
of around 75.50 ARS per USD.
BRAZIL | 2020: -1.0%

The real plummeted to a new low in mid-February as the 2018 Nov-19
coronavirus outbreak unsettled FX markets. On 13 February, 2019 Dec-19

COPOM intervened to curb the depreciation. On 14 February,
the currency ended the day at 4.30 per USD, depreciating 3.8% 2020 Jan-20
month-on-month. The BRL should recover ahead, supported by 2021 Feb-20

the pick-up in economic activity.
CHILE | 2020: -0.1%

The peso lost ground against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, as 2018 Nov-19
the coronavirus epidemic hampered Chinese demand for Chilean 2019 Dec-19
exports. On 14 February, the CLP traded at 792 per USD, a 2.7%
depreciation from the same day last month. Going forward, most 2020 Jan-20
analysts expect the peso will recover somewhat thanks to the 2021 Feb-20
country’s strong fundamentals and rising copper prices.
COLOMBIA | 2020: -1.1%

The Colombian peso weakened against the U.S. dollar in recent 2018 Nov-19
weeks amid worries of a slowdown in China and slumping oil 2019 Dec-19
prices. On 14 February, the COP ended the day at 3,392 per USD,
a 3.0% month-on-month depreciation. Looking ahead, the peso 2020 Jan-20
is seen losing ground this year as the country’s external position 2021 Feb-20
remains fragile.
MEXICO | 2020: -3.7%

2018 Nov-19
The peso strengthened against the U.S. dollar and hit over one-
year highs in recent weeks, buoyed in large part by the signing 2019 Dec-19
of the USMCA trade deal by President Trump. On 14 February,
the MXN traded at 18.54 per USD, appreciating 1.3% month-on- 2020 Jan-20
month. The peso is expected to weaken somewhat ahead, while 2021 Feb-20
remaining vulnerable to episodes of volatility and risk aversion.
PERU | 2020: -1.3%

2018 Nov-19
On 14 February, the PEN ended the day at 3.38 per USD,
depreciating 1.7% from the same day in January. Coronavirus 2019 Dec-19
fears exerted strong downside pressures in recent weeks, although
China’s stimulus measures limited the extent of the weakening. 2020 Jan-20
Peru’s nuevo sol is seen broadly stable this year, supported by 2021 Feb-20
low inflation and an improved external sector performance.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2020.

News in Focus
News in Focus
Argentina: Central Bank lowers interest rate floor again at BRAZIL | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
February’s meeting
4.5
On 13 February, in a bid to stimulate the economy and on the
back of moderating inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of
Argentina (BCRA) decided to reduce the lower floor for the LELIQ 4.0
rate to 44.0%. This brings the total number of lower-floor cuts
delivered by the new BCRA’s President Miquel Ángel Pesce, who
took office on 10 December, to six so far. 3.5
Brazil: COPOM slashes key interest rate in February, suggests

holding pattern ahead 3.0
Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
At its 4–5 February meeting, COPOM unanimously voted to cut
the benchmark SELIC interest rate from 4.50% to a new record Note: Daily spot of real (BRL) against U.S. dollar (USD).
Source: Refinitiv.
low of 4.25%. The decision came on the back of below-target
inflation expectations and the Bank’s ongoing efforts to revive
economic growth.
Brazil: Real plunges to record low in February as coronavirus

fears spark flight to safe havens
On 14 February, the currency ended the day at 4.30 per USD,
MEXICO | Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
depreciating 3.8% month-on-month. The real had touched a record
low previously, weighed down by alarm over the coronavirus 5.0
outbreak and COPOM’s rate cut to a historic low. On 13 February,

the Central Bank intervened by selling USD 1 billion in FX swaps.
2.5
Chile: Economic activity recovers in December

%
In December, the IMACEC economic activity index grew 1.1% on
an annual basis, rebounding from November’s 3.3% contraction. 0.0
December’s bounce reflected a 3.7% expansion in the mining

economy and 0.8% growth of the non-mining economy.
-2.5
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020
Mexico: Economy shrinks again in Q4 2019
Economic activity fell 0.3% in year-on-year in Q4, matching the Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus
third quarter’s decline. The slip confirmed continued weakness in Forecast.
the secondary sector of the economy. For the year as a whole,
GDP shrank 0.1%, contrasting 2018’s 2.1% expansion and
marking the first slump since the economic crisis of 2009.
Mexico: Banxico axes rate for fifth consecutive time in

February to revive activity
At its 13 February meeting, Banxico unanimously decided to slash VENEZUELA | Inflation | Consumer Price Index
the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points
200 400,000
to 7.00%, marking the fifth consecutive cut. As in December’s Monthly (left scale)
meeting, efforts to revive growth and broadly contained inflationary Annual (right scale)
150 300,000
pressures underpinned the Board’s decision.
% %
Venezuela: Inflation eases to near two-year low in December 100 200,000
amid rapid dollarization of the economy

Inflation receded to 9,585% in December (November: 14,291%), 50 100,000
marking the lowest reading since May 2018. In addition to

aggressively tightening the amount of bolivars that circulate in 0 0
Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19
the economy, authorities also rolled back stringent price controls
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
and liberalized foreign exchange transactions last year, which, Source: Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
coupled with a rapid dollarization of the economy, have helped
quell price pressures.

Population, millions Population, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 595.7 601.5 607.2 612.8 618.2 623.5 628.8 Mercosur
Chile 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1
Brazil
Mexico 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.4 130.5 131.5
Mercosur 263.6 265.7 267.7 269.7 271.6 273.5 275.3 Mexico
Argentina 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6 Andean Com.
Brazil 208.5 210.0 211.4 212.7 214.0 215.3 216.5 Colombia
Paraguay 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7
Argentina
Uruguay 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela 28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 110.4 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.6 117.8 Venezuela
Bolivia 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 Chile
Colombia 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.9 52.3 52.8
Ecuador
Ecuador 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5
Bolivia
Peru 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.1
Paraguay
Uruguay
750
0 250 500 750
2018 2019 2020 2021
600
Notes and sources
Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

450 exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
300
Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela,

FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the
150 long-term as of the August 2018 edition of LatinFocus. We hope
to resume providing these forecasts once reliable data becomes
available. Accordingly, Venezuela has been removed from the
Latin America and Mercosur regional aggregates.
0
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina
GDP, USD billions GDP, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 5,218 5,110 5,243 5,527 5,834 6,152 6,465
Mercosur
Chile 298 282 272 293 315 337 361
Brazil
Mexico 1,221 1,264 1,312 1,348 1,408 1,480 1,555
Mercosur 2,525 2,381 2,426 2,592 2,748 2,897 3,041 Mexico
Argentina 540 456 470 491 529 566 594 Andean Com.
Brazil 1,885 1,830 1,861 2,002 2,115 2,222 2,331 Argentina
Paraguay 40.4 38.2 39.2 41.4 43.5 45.9 48.4
Colombia
Uruguay 59.9 56.3 55.7 57.2 59.9 63.3 66.9
Venezuela 98.4 79.0 61.6 58.0 - - - Chile
Andean Com. 707 705 735 774 817 865 919 Peru
Bolivia 40.3 42.1 44.2 46.2 48.2 50.0 52.2 Ecuador
Colombia 333 324 339 362 385 409 435 Venezuela
Ecuador 108 108 109 111 114 118 124
Uruguay
Peru 225 232 243 255 270 288 308
Bolivia
Paraguay
6,000
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

4,000
Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2,000
0

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Paraguay
Latin America 1.6 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 Colombia
Chile 4.0 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2
Bolivia
Mexico 2.1 -0.1 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Mercosur 0.5 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 Peru
Argentina -2.5 -2.6 -1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 Andean Com.
Brazil 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Brazil
Paraguay 3.4 0.1 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2
Latin America
Uruguay 1.6 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.8
Venezuela Uruguay
-19.6 -30.9 -10.9 -1.8 - - -
Andean Com. 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 Mercosur
Bolivia 4.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 Chile
Colombia 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Mexico
Ecuador 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7
Ecuador
Peru 4.0 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7
Argentina
Venezuela -10.9
3.0
-2 0 2 4
1.5 Notes and sources
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0.0
-1.5
2018 2019 2020 2021
-3.0
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Uruguay
Latin America 8,760 8,494 8,634 9,020 9,437 9,867 10,282
Chile
Chile 15,911 14,755 13,961 14,895 15,902 16,904 17,961
Mexico 9,791 10,034 10,322 10,513 10,888 11,346 11,824 Mexico
Mercosur 9,579 8,960 9,061 9,612 10,119 10,593 11,046 Argentina
Argentina 12,123 10,119 10,318 10,671 11,371 12,014 12,486 Mercosur
Brazil 9,040 8,717 8,804 9,412 9,883 10,323 10,770
Brazil
Paraguay 5,727 5,334 5,409 5,631 5,840 6,074 6,324
Uruguay 17,074 15,987 15,772 16,145 16,851 17,742 18,697 Latin America
Venezuela 3,411 2,871 2,376 2,340 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 6,400 6,311 6,509 6,778 7,079 7,421 7,798 Colombia
Bolivia 3,540 3,648 3,773 3,885 3,989 4,085 4,199
Andean Com.
Colombia 6,689 6,421 6,660 7,046 7,417 7,814 8,237
Ecuador 6,319 6,236 6,204 6,237 6,337 6,487 6,689 Ecuador
Peru 7,007 7,128 7,415 7,689 8,068 8,528 9,030 Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
14,000
0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

11,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
8,000
5,000

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Colombia
Latin America 2.0 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 Bolivia
Chile 4.0 1.5 0.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3
Paraguay
Mexico 2.3 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7
Peru
Mercosur 1.1 0.1 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
Brazil 2.1 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Brazil
Paraguay 4.3 1.0 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 Latin America
Uruguay 1.5 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0
Mercosur
Venezuela -20.1 -30.2 -11.7 -0.4 - - -
Andean Com. 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 Mexico
Bolivia 4.3 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 Uruguay
Colombia 3.0 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 Chile
Ecuador 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9
Ecuador
Peru 3.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9
Argentina
Venezuela -11.7
6 -3 0 3 6
3
Notes and sources
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America

0 and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-3
-6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-9
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Brazil
Latin America 2.2 -0.7 1.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7
Uruguay
Chile 4.7 2.8 -2.1 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3
Paraguay
Mexico 0.9 -4.5 -0.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6
Mercosur 1.8 -0.7 2.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 Colombia
Brazil 3.9 3.3 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 Peru
Paraguay 7.1 -8.6 4.2 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4
Bolivia
Uruguay -2.7 -1.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.5
Mercosur
Venezuela -37.5 -37.0 -15.3 -0.8 - - -
Andean Com. 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 Latin America
Bolivia 3.2 -0.7 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 Ecuador
Colombia 1.6 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 Mexico
Ecuador 2.0 -1.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5
Chile
Peru 4.8 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1
Argentina
Venezuela -15.3
6
-8 -4 0 4 8
0 Notes and sources
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-6
-12
2018 2019 2020 2021
-18
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Uruguay
Latin America 0.9 -1.0 1.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.1
Chile 2.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 Colombia
Mexico 0.5 -1.8 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6
Brazil
Mercosur 0.0 -2.1 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9
Brazil 1.0 -1.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0
Uruguay Mercosur
11.5 -1.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8
Andean Com. 3.8 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 Latin America
Colombia 3.8 1.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4
Ecuador -1.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 - Peru
Peru 6.2 -1.7 1.5 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.0 Chile
Ecuador
Mexico
Argentina
6
-3 0 3 6
2018 2019 2020 2021
3
Notes and sources
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile

0 and Ecuador refers to manufacturing. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes.
-3
-6
-9
Retail Sales, annual variation in % Retail Sales Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Latin America 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 - Colombia
Chile 4.0 -1.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 -
Mexico 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Brazil 2.3 1.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 Brazil
Colombia 5.4 8.1 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 -
Peru 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 - Latin
America
Chile
9 Peru
2018 2019 2020 2021

Mexico
6
2 3 4 5
3 Notes and sources
Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %. Data for Peru refers to
commerce sector.
0
-3
Latin America Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 29.8
Latin America 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.0
Brazil
Chile 6.9 7.0 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.7 6.2
Mexico 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 Mercosur
Mercosur 11.4 11.4 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7 Argentina
Argentina 9.2 10.5 10.9 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7
Colombia
Brazil 12.3 11.9 11.2 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.8
Paraguay 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 - Uruguay
Uruguay 8.4 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.4 Latin America
Venezuela 6.9 20.5 29.8 26.7 - - -
Chile
Andean Com. 7.7 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5
Colombia 9.7 10.5 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 Andean Com.
Ecuador 3.7 3.8 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 Peru
Peru 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Paraguay
Ecuador
Mexico
14
0 4 8 12
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

10
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes
in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
2
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Ecuador
Latin America -4.3 -3.7 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9
Chile Paraguay
-1.7 -2.5 -4.0 -3.5 -2.9 -2.5 -2.1
Mexico -2.1 -1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5 Peru
Mercosur -6.4 -5.5 -4.9 -4.5 -4.2 -3.9 -3.7 Andean Com.
Argentina -5.0 -4.3 -3.5 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 Colombia
Brazil -7.1 -5.9 -5.4 -4.9 -4.6 -4.3 -4.0
Mexico
Paraguay -1.3 -2.8 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2
Uruguay -2.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.6 Uruguay
Venezuela -20.0 -21.0 -16.5 -11.1 - - - Argentina
Andean Com. -2.8 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 Latin America
Bolivia -8.1 -8.0 -7.2 -6.6 -5.7 -4.9 -4.1
Chile
Colombia -3.1 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8
Mercosur
Ecuador -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
Peru -2.3 -1.6 -2.0 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 Brazil
Bolivia
Venezuela -16.5
0
-9 -6 -3 0 3
Notes and sources

-3
Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
-6 Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: Non-financial central government.
2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
-9

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 2,862
Latin America 8.2 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.7
Argentina
Chile 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0
Mercosur
Mexico 4.8 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
Mercosur 13.2 13.9 11.1 9.3 8.3 7.5 6.4 Uruguay
Argentina 47.6 53.8 41.6 32.7 27.6 23.1 18.7 Latin America
Brazil 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 Brazil
Paraguay 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1
Paraguay
Uruguay 8.0 8.8 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.3
Venezuela Mexico
130,060 9,585 2,862 1,112 - - -
Andean Com. 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 Colombia
Bolivia 1.5 1.5 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 Chile
Colombia 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Bolivia
Ecuador 0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5
Andean Com.
Peru 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5
Peru
Ecuador
60 0 15 30 45
2018 2019 2020 2021

Notes and sources
40 Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

20
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Argentina
Latin America 11.73 9.52 7.65 7.56 7.39 7.34 7.47
Chile 2.75 1.75 1.49 1.90 2.61 3.29 3.97 Mercosur
Mexico 8.25 7.25 6.34 6.04 5.82 5.78 5.75 Bolivia
Mercosur 17.74 14.20 10.75 10.43 9.98 9.76 9.55
Latin America
Argentina 59.25 55.00 36.69 30.16 26.27 24.04 21.80
Brazil 6.50 4.50 4.47 5.85 6.15 6.37 6.59 Mexico
Paraguay 5.25 4.00 4.13 4.38 4.78 5.16 - Uruguay
Uruguay 5.30 5.86 6.30 5.50 4.98 4.65 -
Ecuador
Venezuela 15.00 24.00 - - - - -
Andean Com. 4.20 4.17 3.99 4.27 4.57 4.82 4.64 Brazil
Bolivia 8.04 8.87 8.86 8.81 8.75 8.72 - Colombia
Colombia 4.25 4.25 4.28 4.60 4.70 4.76 4.83
Paraguay
Ecuador 5.62 6.22 5.27 5.15 5.54 5.84 -
Peru 2.75 2.25 2.14 2.59 3.24 3.80 4.36 Andean Com.
Peru
Chile
60
0 15 30 45
2018 2019 2020 2021

Notes and sources
40
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Long-term forecasts
(2022-2024) are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period
projections. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Bolivia: Prime lending rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
20 Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
0 Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.
Sources: National central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Appreciation versus USD, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Chile
Latin America -12.7 -4.4 -4.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.2 -2.0
Brazil
Chile -11.3 -7.7 -0.1 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.7
Mexico 0.0 3.8 -3.7 -1.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 Paraguay
Mercosur -22.1 -10.2 -5.8 -4.1 -4.2 -4.0 -3.5 Colombia
Argentina -50.6 -37.1 -25.1 -20.0 -16.9 -15.1 -13.1
Andean Com.
Brazil -14.7 -3.4 -1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2
Paraguay -6.3 -7.6 -1.0 -2.6 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 Peru
Uruguay -11.1 -13.1 -7.7 -5.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 Bolivia
Venezuela -98.4 -98.6 -91.3 - - - -
Mexico
Andean Com. -6.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Bolivia 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.7 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 Latin America
Colombia -8.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Mercosur

Peru -3.9 1.7 -1.3 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Uruguay
Argentina
Venezuela -91.3
20
-28 -21 -14 -7 0
0 Notes and sources
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
-20 Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks and Refinitiv.
-40
2018 2019 2020 2021
-60
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela
Latin America -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9
Chile -3.1 -3.0 -1.7 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -2.4 Argentina
Mexico -1.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 Paraguay
Mercosur -2.7 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 Uruguay
Argentina -5.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
Ecuador
Brazil -2.2 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Mexico
Paraguay -0.2 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4
Uruguay 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 Chile
Venezuela 8.7 7.8 7.4 5.5 - - - Latin America
Andean Com. -2.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 Peru
Bolivia -4.7 -5.2 -4.9 -4.6 -4.0 -3.4 -2.9
Mercosur
Colombia -3.9 -4.4 -4.3 -4.0 -3.8 -3.5 -3.3
Ecuador -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 Andean Com.
Peru -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 Brazil

Colombia
Bolivia
2
-6 -3 0 3 6 9
0 Notes and sources
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-2
-4
2018 2019 2020 2021
-6

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Paraguay
Latin America 7.6 -0.4 3.4 4.3 4.5 4.4 -
Chile 9.6 -7.6 2.9 4.0 5.0 5.4 5.8 Mexico
Mexico 10.1 2.3 3.7 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 Ecuador
Mercosur 8.5 -4.0 2.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 Latin America
Argentina 5.3 5.4 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4
Bolivia
Brazil 9.9 -6.4 2.8 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.7
Paraguay 2.5 -9.1 4.9 8.2 9.2 9.8 10.3 Uruguay
Uruguay 4.3 1.4 3.0 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 Andean Com.
Venezuela -1.0 -28.7 -12.6 -1.5 - - - Chile
Andean Com. 10.4 -1.3 2.9 4.1 5.6 6.6 7.7
Mercosur
Bolivia 9.7 -1.6 3.2 5.2 7.2 8.3 9.4
Brazil
Colombia 11.7 -1.8 2.7 5.4 7.3 8.8 10.2
Ecuador 13.0 3.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 Peru
Peru 8.1 -2.9 2.8 3.7 5.0 5.7 6.5 Colombia
Argentina
Venezuela
12
-14 -7 0 7
6 Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

0
-6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-12
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Brazil
Latin America 10.7 -2.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 -
Chile Uruguay
15.1 -7.5 -3.7 4.0 5.8 6.1 6.4
Mexico 10.4 -1.9 5.0 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 Mercosur
Mercosur 13.0 -8.1 7.4 7.7 6.4 5.9 5.4 Paraguay
Argentina -2.2 -25.0 -0.8 8.9 7.5 7.3 7.1 Peru
Brazil 20.2 -2.1 9.7 7.1 5.8 5.2 4.6
Latin America
Paraguay 12.0 -7.5 5.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.2
Uruguay 5.1 -5.1 8.1 9.8 9.1 7.5 6.0 Mexico
Venezuela 6.5 -27.2 -1.1 7.6 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 11.2 0.8 4.0 4.3 5.4 5.9 6.3 Colombia
Bolivia 8.5 1.5 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1
Bolivia
Colombia 12.1 4.7 4.0 5.2 6.5 6.6 6.8
Ecuador 15.9 -2.7 2.0 2.5 4.2 4.6 4.9 Ecuador
Peru 8.3 -1.9 5.2 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.5 Argentina
Venezuela
Chile
30
-6 0 6 12
15 Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

0
-15
2018 2019 2020 2021
-30

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Brazil
Latin America 9.3 9.4 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.2
Chile 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 Peru
Mexico 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 Mercosur
Mercosur 20.7 20.6 19.2 18.0 17.1 16.3 15.3 Uruguay
Argentina 12.1 10.9 11.2 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.5
Andean Com.
Brazil 24.8 24.1 22.0 20.6 19.5 18.7 18.0
Paraguay 7.4 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.8 6.4 - Colombia
Uruguay 20.6 20.1 19.1 18.3 17.4 16.8 16.5 Argentina
Venezuela 8.3 9.6 9.2 9.7 - - - Venezuela
Andean Com. 11.5 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7
Latin America
Bolivia 9.2 5.5 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7
Colombia Paraguay
11.7 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.8
Ecuador 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Chile
Peru 17.3 20.0 19.7 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 Mexico
Bolivia
Ecuador
30
0 5 10 15 20 25
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

20
Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.
10
0
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela 191.5
Latin America 34.4 36.3 36.1 35.4 35.4 35.1 -
Chile 61.8 70.0 73.2 71.9 70.6 68.2 - Uruguay
Mexico 36.6 36.4 36.1 36.5 37.5 37.3 - Chile
Mercosur 26.0 27.9 27.4 25.9 25.4 25.2 - Argentina
Argentina 51.4 61.7 59.2 56.5 54.9 55.0 -
Ecuador
Brazil 17.0 17.7 17.6 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.4
Paraguay
Paraguay 39.1 43.9 44.1 44.0 43.2 42.1 40.9
Uruguay 69.2 75.6 78.2 79.7 79.7 80.2 - Colombia
Venezuela 112.9 153.0 191.5 201.8 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 37.8 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.4 - Latin America
Bolivia 33.0 34.7 35.7 36.7 38.3 40.2 41.7
Mexico
Colombia 39.6 42.6 42.3 41.4 41.4 41.1 40.6
Ecuador 40.9 48.4 50.7 52.8 53.8 54.6 - Bolivia
Peru 34.5 34.2 33.8 34.0 33.4 33.7 - Peru
Mercosur
Brazil
70
0 25 50 75 100
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

50
Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
30
10

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
January December Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 2,068 1,744 Caa2 RUR CC Negative CC n/a
Bolivia - - Ba3 RUR BB- Negative B+ Negative
Brazil 225 214 Ba2 Stable BB- Positive BB- Stable
Chile 143 142 A1 Stable A+ Stable A Stable
Colombia 176 161 Baa2 Stable BBB- Stable BBB Negative
Ecuador 1,018 826 Caa1 Stable B- Stable B- Stable
Mexico 187 172 A3 Negative BBB+ Negative BBB Stable
Paraguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB+ Stable
Peru 96 81 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ Stable
Uruguay 159 148 Baa2 Stable BBB Stable BBB- Negative
Venezuela 16,553 14,740 C Stable SD N.M. WD -
Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil
Venezuela 3,000 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Argentina
Argentina Brazil
Ecuador
600
EMBI + Latin 2,000
Brazil
400
Mexico
Colombia 1,000
Uruguay 200
Chile
Peru
0 0
0 6,000 12,000 18,000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Chile Colombia Mexico
800 800 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
600 600 600
400 400 400
200 200 200
0 0 0
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
800 800 20,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
600 600 15,000
400 400 10,000
200 200 5,000
0 0 0
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %
MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
January 2020
Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
Argentina -2.6 18.0 -37.1 -2.6 -3.8 14.6 10.4 -3.8
Brazil -7.6 -1.5 -4.1 -7.6 -1.6 6.1 16.8 -1.6
Chile -7.9 -9.8 -33.1 -7.9 -1.9 -3.7 -16.0 -1.9
Colombia -7.4 -2.2 2.8 -7.4 - - - -
Mexico 1.4 3.2 -0.2 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.3 1.3
Peru -6.2 -4.1 -11.9 -6.2 -3.4 -0.4 -1.8 -3.4
Latin America -5.7 -0.9 -6.6 -5.7 - - - -
Emerging Markets -4.7 2.0 1.2 -4.7 - - - -
World -1.2 4.5 13.7 -1.2 - - - -
Overview | month-on-month var. in % Argentina Brazil
Mexico 250 100

Latin America
World Argentina
200
Argentina 75
Emerging Markets
150
Latin America 50
Peru 100
Colombia
25
50 Latin America
Brazil
Brazil
Chile
0 0
-12 -8 -4 0 4 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20
150 150 150
100 100 100
50 50 50
Latin America Latin America Latin America

Colombia Mexico
Chile
0 0 0
Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20
Peru
200
150
100
50
Latin America
Peru
0
Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end
United States Euro Area

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Euro (EUR) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States - - - - United States 1.18 1.12 1.12 1.15
Japan 110 109 107 107 Japan 129 122 120 123
Euro Area 0.85 0.89 0.89 0.87 Euro Area - - - -
Argentina 37.66 59.88 79.93 99.95 Argentina 44.5 67.0 89.8 115
Brazil 3.88 4.02 4.06 4.07 Brazil 4.58 4.50 4.56 4.67
Chile 694 752 753 736 Chile 820 842 846 844
Colombia 3,248 3,287 3,323 3,330 Colombia 3,835 3,680 3,732 3,820
Mexico 19.65 18.93 19.65 19.95 Mexico 23.2 21.2 22.1 22.9
Peru 3.37 3.31 3.36 3.37 Peru 3.98 3.71 3.77 3.87
Venezuela 638 46,621 534,501 - Venezuela 754 52,191 600,276 -
Japan Argentina
Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Argentine Peso (ARS) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 United States 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
Japan - - - - Japan 2.91 1.81 1.34 1.07
Euro Area 0.77 0.82 0.83 0.81 Euro Area 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
Argentina 34.4 55.1 74.6 93.0 Argentina - - - -
Brazil 3.54 3.70 3.79 3.79 Brazil 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.04
Chile 633 692 703 685 Chile 18.4 12.6 9.4 7.4
Colombia 2,964 3,026 3,103 3,100 Colombia 86 54.9 41.6 33.3
Mexico 17.9 17.4 18.3 18.6 Mexico 0.52 0.32 0.25 0.20
Peru 3.07 3.05 3.14 3.14 Peru 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03
Venezuela 582 42,919 499,103 - Venezuela 16.9 779 6,687 -
Brazil Chile
Brazilian Real (BRL) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 28.2 27.0 26.4 26.4 Japan 15.8 14.4 14.2 14.6
Argentina 9.70 14.90 19.69 24.58 Argentina 5.43 7.96 10.62 13.58
Brazil - - - - Brazil 0.56 0.53 0.54 0.55
Chile 179 187 185 181 Chile - - - -
Colombia 837 818 819 819 Colombia 468 437 441 452
Mexico 5.06 4.71 4.84 4.91 Mexico 2.83 2.52 2.61 2.71
Peru 0.87 0.82 0.83 0.83 Peru 0.49 0.44 0.45 0.46
Venezuela 164 11,599 131,662 - Venezuela 92.0 6,200 70,993 -
Colombia Mexico
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mexican Peso (MXN) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 33.7 33.0 32.2 32.3 Japan 5.58 5.74 5.45 5.39
Argentina 11.60 18.22 24.06 30.02 Argentina 1.92 3.16 4.07 5.01
Brazil 1.20 1.22 1.22 1.22 Brazil 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.20
Chile 214 229 227 221 Chile 35.3 39.7 38.3 36.9
Colombia - - - - Colombia 165 174 169 167
Mexico 6.05 5.76 5.91 5.99 Mexico - - - -
Peru 1.04 1.01 1.01 1.01 Peru 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Venezuela 197 14,182 160,852 - Venezuela 32.5 2,462 27,200 -
Peru Venezuela
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Venezuelan Bolívar (VES) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 United States 0.00 0.00 0.00 -
Japan 32.5 32.8 31.9 31.8 Japan 0.17 0.00 0.00 -
Euro Area 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.26 Euro Area 0.00 0.00 0.00 -
Argentina 11.18 18.07 23.80 29.63 Argentina 0.06 0.00 0.00 -
Brazil 1.15 1.21 1.21 1.21 Brazil 0.01 0.00 0.00 -
Chile 206 227 224 218 Chile 1.09 0.02 0.00 -
Colombia 964 992 989 987 Colombia 5.09 0.07 0.01 -
Mexico 5.83 5.71 5.85 5.91 Mexico 0.03 0.00 0.00 -
Peru - - - - Peru 0.01 0.00 0.00 -
Venezuela 189 14,072 159,158 - Venezuela - - - -

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar February 2020
Date Country Event

17 February Colombia January Consumer Confidence
20 February Brazil February Consumer Confidence
Peru Q4 2019 National Accounts
21 February Argentina December Economic Activity
Argentina January Merchandise Trade
Brazil January Balance of Payments
25 February Mexico Q4 2019 National Accounts (by Production)
Mexico December Economic Activity
28 February Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Mexico January Merchandise Trade
1 March Chile February Copper Prices
Mexico January Remittances
Peru February Consumer Prices (P)
2 March Brazil February Business Confidence
Brazil February Manufacturing PMI
Chile February Consumer Confidence (E)
Chile February Business Confidence
Colombia February Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Colombia January Merchandise Trade
Mexico February Manufacturing PMI
Mexico February IMEF Manufacturing PMI
Uruguay February Consumer Prices
4 March Brazil Q4 2019 National Accounts
5 March Argentina January Industrial Production
Colombia February Consumer Prices
Mexico February Consumer Confidence
Peru January Merchandise Trade
Peru February Consumer Prices
Peru February Business Confidence
6 March Chile February Consumer Prices
9 March Ecuador February Consumer Prices (E)
Mexico February Consumer Prices
10 March Brazil January Industrial Production
11 March Brazil February Consumer Prices
12 March Ecuador January Economic Activity
Peru Central Bank Meeting
13 March Argentina February Consumer Prices
Colombia February Industrial Production
Mexico January Industrial Production
Uruguay February Industrial Production
(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2020
Argentina
Outlook stable
Argentina
• The economy likely remained in the doldrums in the final quarter of 2019,
after contracting in year-on-year terms in the third quarter. Economic
activity continued to shrivel in October−November, while consumer
confidence was stuck in pessimistic terrain and export growth cooled in the
fourth quarter. On a somewhat more positive note, industrial production
expanded for the first time in 20 months in December. Meanwhile, in
early February, the Senate ratified the lower house’s decision to grant
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages the government the power to restructure around USD 100 billion of the
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
country’s foreign-denominated sovereign debt. Of this, around USD 44
Population (million): 44.1 45.6 47.1 billion is owed to the IMF, with whom the government held talks last week.
GDP (USD bn): 577 472 563
This was a first step in the negotiation process with creditors, whose
GDP per capita (USD): 13,096 10,369 11,957
GDP growth (%): -0.7 -0.8 2.2 agreement is aimed for by 31 March.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.6 -3.6 -2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP): 65.2 89.1 81.7
Inflation (%): 34.3 45.5 24.8 • The economy will remain mired in recession this year, although the pace of
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.2 -0.5 -0.9 contraction is expected to ease. Downbeat investor confidence, runaway
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.3 59.1 55.0
inflation and sky-high interest rates will weigh on domestic demand,
Massimo Bassetti while the new levies will hit export growth. Debt renegotiations and
Economist interventionist policies further cloud the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus
sees the economy contracting 1.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from
last month’s estimate, before rebounding 1.7% in 2021.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts • Inflation ticked down in January, coming in at 52.9% (December: 53.8%),
6 4
and the month-on-month increase in consumer prices moderated
3
considerably. This year, inflation is expected to remain elevated amid
2 strong FX pressures and a rapid expansion of the monetary base, with a
0
return to monetary financing of fiscal deficits posing further upside risks.
-3 FocusEconomics panelists project inflation to end 2020 at 41.6% and
0
2021 at 32.7%.
-6
2020 2021
-9
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
-2 • On 13 February, in a further bid to stimulate the economy, the Central
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021

Bank of Argentina (BCRA) decided to reduce the lower floor for the
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. LELIQ rate to 44.0% from 48.0%, a move which could prompt a further
rapid expansion of liquidity. The BCRA should continue lowering rates
going ahead, although they will likely remain elevated due to stubbornly-
high inflation. FocusEconomics analysts see the LELIQ rate ending 2020
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts at 36.69% and 2021 at 30.16%.
60 50
Argentina
Latin America 2020 2021
• On 14 February, the ARS traded at 61.35 per USD, a 2.4% depreciation
40
40
from the same day in January. In recent weeks, downside pressures
stemmed from coronavirus fears, but were partly cushioned by the
30
BCRA’s exchange controls. Meanwhile, the parallel-market dollar was
20
20
priced at a significantly higher rate of around 75.50 ARS per USD.
Analysts see the ARS ending 2020 and 2021 at 79.93 per USD and 99.95
0 10 per USD, respectively.
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.

REAL SECTOR | Contraction in economic activity sharpens in November

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de
2.4 6.0 Actividad Económica) fell 1.9% year-on-year in November, after logging a
0.7% contraction in October.
1.2 3.0
In terms of productive sectors, November’s sharper contraction was largely

0.0 0.0
% %
driven by more pronounced falls in the manufacturing and internal trade
-1.2 -3.0 sectors, as well as by weaker growth in the mining and agricultural sectors.
On the flipside, the construction and fishing sectors shrank at a softer pace
-2.4 -6.0 than in October.
Month-on-month (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
-3.6
Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19
-9.0
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity shrank 1.7% in
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE (Estimador seasonally-adjusted terms in November, contrasting October’s 2.0% increase.
Mensual de Actividad Económica) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC) and
Meanwhile, the average annual variation in economic activity improved from a
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast calculations. 3.1% contraction in October to a 2.7% fall in November.
FocusEconomics analysts see the economy in recession this year, contracting

1.5%, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. In 2021, analysts see
GDP finally rebounding, with growth coming in at 1.7%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production expands for first time in 20 months

in December
Industrial production ticked up 1.2% year-on-year in December, according to
Industrial Production | variation in %
8
data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 5 February. The
reading contrasted November’s 4.5% year-on-year drop.
0
In December, the strongest expansions were recorded in the production of
food, beverages and tobacco and of wood and paper products. On the other
% hand, the manufacture of automotive and other transport equipment and of
-8
metal products logged the sharpest drops.
Year-on-Year
Annual average Meanwhile, the annual average variation in industrial output rose from
-16 November’s minus 7.6% to minus 6.2% in December.
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in % and annual average

growth rate in %. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast calculations. industrial production will contract 1.9% in 2020, which is up 0.4 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects industrial output
to rise 2.4%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence ticks up in January but remains

downbeat
Consumer Confidence The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index edged
55
up to 43.0 in January from 42.4 in December. However, the index remained
entrenched below the 50-threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
50
among consumers, where it has been for over two years.
45
January’s print mainly reflected an improvement in consumers’ willingness to
40 purchase big-ticket items, which nevertheless remained at abysmal levels.
Moreover, consumers also had better assessments of their personal financial
35
conditions compared to one year ago. On the other hand, consumers’
expectations on their personal financial situation in one-year view deteriorated,
30
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 and their outlook on the future general macroeconomic situation weakened.
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
Panelists surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private
consumption dropping 2.0% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from

last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists expect private consumption to

increase 2.1%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ticks down in January

Consumer prices rose 2.3% over the previous month in January, coming in
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
below December’s 3.7% rise and market expectations of a 3.5% increase,
8.0 60
Month-on-month (left scale) according to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
6.0 50
In terms of sub-components of the index, the categories of clothing and
% % footwear, housing and utilities, transport and communication recorded
4.0 40 especially marked decelerations in price increases, while prices for health
and home equipment swung from notable increases to sizable drops. On the
2.0 30 other hand, some acceleration in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages
and alcoholic beverages and tobacco was recorded.
0.0 20
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Meanwhile, ticked down, coming in at 52.9% in January (December: 53.8%),
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %. while annual average inflation edged up to 53.9% from 53.6% in December.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
Inflation is expected to be 41.6% at the end of 2020, which is down 0.3

percentage points from last month’s forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to
32.7% at the end of 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank lowers interest rate floor again at

February’s meeting
On 13 February, in a bid to stimulate the economy and on the back of
Monetary Policy Rate | in % moderating inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)
100
decided to reduce the lower floor for the LELIQ rate to 44.0%. On 30 January,
the Central Bank had set a new lower floor for the LELIQ rate, at 48.0%,
80 opting for a two-percentage-point cut. This brings the total number of lower-
floor cuts delivered by the BCRA’s new President Miquel Ángel Pesce, who
60 took office on 10 December, to six so far.
%
40
Going forward, it remains to be seen if recent cuts will be able to reactivate
economic activity or whether they will stoke price pressures. Lower interest
rates and an expanding monetary base could translate into higher liquidity,
20
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 putting pressure on the peso and fueling inflation.
Note: 7-day LELIQ Rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (Banco Central de la República
Argentina).
On average, panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
see the LELIQ rate ending 2020 at 36.69%. They see the LELIQ rate easing
in 2021, closing the year at 30.16%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus narrows in December amid flat

Merchandise Trade
export growth
16 36
Exports ticked up a marginal 0.7% in year-on-year terms in December,
following November’s much stronger 10.1% increase. December’s outturn
8 18
was the result of higher exported quantities, while prices continued to fall.
% The print was the result of higher exports of manufactured products of
0 0 agricultural origin and of fuels and energy more than offsetting lower sales of
manufactured products of industrial origin and of primary products. In terms
-8 -18 of export markets, December’s print mainly resulted from rising in overseas
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
shipments to China, Chile and Indonesia more than offsetting declining
Exports (USD bn, right scale)
-16 Imports (USD bn, right scale) -36
exports to Brazil and the U.S.
Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the Imports plummeted 20.0% annually in December, a somewhat softer drop
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics than November’s 21.9% slump. Significant contractions in the imports of
calculations.

passenger motor vehicles, fuels and lubricants, and intermediate goods drove
November’s downturn.
Meanwhile, the trade balance surplus narrowed from USD 2.5 billion in
November to USD 2.2 billion in December (December 2018: USD 1.4 billion
surplus). Therefore, the 12-month rolling trade balance rose from a USD
15.1 billion surplus in November to a USD 15.9 billion surplus in December
(December 2018: USD 3.7 billion shortfall), marking the best result since
February 2010.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports

to expand 2.4% in 2020 and imports to decrease 0.8%, pushing the trade
balance to a USD 18.0 billion surplus. For 2021, the panel expects exports
to increase 3.0% and imports to rebound 8.9%, with a trade surplus of USD
15.7 billion.

Economic Indicators | 2015 - 2024
Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6
GDP per capita (USD) 15,110 12,778 14,386 12,123 10,119 10,318 10,671 11,371 12,014 12,486
GDP (USD bn) 652 557 634 540 456 470 491 529 566 594
GDP (ARS bn) 5,955 8,228 10,645 14,567 21,984 32,274 44,203 58,298 74,080 90,567
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 30.0 38.2 29.4 36.8 50.9 46.8 37.0 31.9 27.1 22.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.7 -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.2 -1.6 6.0 -3.4 -7.7 -2.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 -0.8 4.0 -2.4 -6.8 -2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.9 -0.5 2.7 -3.3 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.5 -5.8 12.2 -5.7 -15.9 -6.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.8 5.3 1.7 -0.7 8.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.7 5.8 15.4 -4.7 -17.8 -4.3 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.1 -4.5 2.5 -4.6 -6.2 -1.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.1 8.4 8.4 9.2 10.5 10.9 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.1 -5.8 -5.9 -5.0 -4.3 -3.5 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.6 53.1 56.6 86.0 93.0 88.6 85.6 83.6 81.7 79.8
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28.2 30.4 26.0 22.8 30.9 47.0 33.5 29.0 22.8 16.6
Monetary Base (ann. var. %) 34.9 31.7 21.8 40.7 34.5 41.2 33.0 28.2 22.7 17.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 26.9 41.0 24.8 47.6 53.8 41.6 32.7 27.6 23.1 18.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 26.7 41.2 27.7 34.3 53.5 48.3 35.3 29.9 24.9 19.8
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 33.00 24.75 28.75 59.25 55.00 36.69 30.16 26.27 24.04 21.80
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 27.25 19.88 23.25 49.50 40.31 28.79 24.44 23.10 22.71 -
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %) 36.1 44.9 77.7 0.8 37.6 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 12.94 15.86 18.60 37.66 59.88 79.93 99.95 120.26 141.68 163.10
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 9.27 14.77 16.56 28.08 48.22 68.67 89.94 110.11 130.97 152.39
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.7 -4.9 -5.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -17.6 -15.1 -31.2 -27.3 -5.7 0.2 -1.8 -2.7 -4.9 -7.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.4 2.1 -8.3 -3.7 16.0 18.0 15.7 13.8 11.9 10.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 56.8 57.9 58.6 61.8 65.1 66.7 68.7 70.9 73.2 75.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 60.2 55.9 66.9 65.5 49.1 48.7 53.1 57.0 61.2 65.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -17.0 2.0 1.3 5.3 5.4 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -8.4 -7.2 19.8 -2.2 -25.0 -0.8 8.9 7.5 7.3 7.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 11.8 3.3 11.5 12.2 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 25.6 39.3 55.1 65.8 44.8 45.3 46.7 49.7 50.8 52.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.1 8.4 9.9 12.1 10.9 11.2 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.5
External Debt (USD bn) 167 181 235 278 281 278 278 291 311 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 25.7 32.6 37.0 51.4 61.7 59.2 56.5 54.9 55.0 -
Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -3.7 -6.1 -5.8 0.0 -1.7 -2.4 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -0.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -5.0 -13.8 -12.6 -8.4 -7.9 -2.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.7 -0.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.4 -9.4 -9.9 -8.2 -4.9 -3.5 -3.0 -2.4 -2.7 -0.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.2 -5.3 -0.5 -1.9 -0.9 -1.6 -1.0 -0.3 0.0 0.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -11.7 -24.4 -24.5 -18.3 -10.2 -8.9 -9.0 -9.1 -7.7 -2.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.4 -12.4 -11.2 -7.6 -4.4 -1.8 -2.4 -2.8 -2.1 -0.5
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 65.00 59.25 68.16 62.69 78.37 55.00 44.95 41.38 39.31 36.69
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 43.31 49.50 45.69 47.50 58.88 40.31 31.99 30.39 30.02 28.79
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 31.91 37.11 39.01 43.91 50.34 59.29 61.67 65.70 70.65 76.65
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -1.7 -3.1 -1.6 -1.1 0.4 -0.9 0.2 -0.2 1.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7.4 -2.0 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 -1.0 0.2 -0.2 1.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.5 2.7 2.0 3.6 3.9 6.5 3.5 4.7 4.5 5.5
Monthly Data Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) -1.7 2.0 -0.4 0.5 -3.5 -2.1 -0.7 -1.9 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.9 -6.9 -7.2 -1.7 -6.4 -5.0 -2.0 -4.5 1.2 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 34.4 36.5 40.6 44.2 41.9 42.1 43.8 41.4 42.4 43.0
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.2 4.0 5.9 3.3 4.3 3.7 2.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 55.8 57.3 55.8 54.4 54.5 53.5 50.5 52.1 53.8 52.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.2 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.3 17.1 2.1 8.1 7.0 14.1 9.1 10.1 0.7 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -31.7 -28.0 -23.6 -20.7 -30.3 -14.9 -18.8 -21.9 -20.0 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
12 5 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

ABECEB 0.0 1.8
Analytica Consultora -2.9 -
6 Banco de Galicia -1.8 1.5
0 Banco Supervielle 0.0 3.0
Barclays Capital 0.3 2.2
0 BBVA Argentina -3.0 0.5
BNP Paribas -1.5 -
-5 BTG Pactual -2.4 -
-6 C&T Asesores -1.4 1.2
Argentina
Argentina Latin America Capital Economics -0.5 1.0
Latin America World Citigroup Global Mkts -0.5 2.0
World
-12 -10 Credit Agricole -1.8 0.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 DEF -2.0 1.5
DekaBank -1.1 1.6
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts DuckerFrontier -1.9 2.2
Eco Go -1.0 -
6 6 Ecolatina -1.6 2.7
Econométrica -2.5 -
Econviews -0.5 2.5
3 3 EIU -1.4 2.0
Euromonitor Int. -1.6 0.6
FIEL -1.2 2.5
0 0 Fitch Solutions -2.7 2.2
Fundación Capital -1.8 2.1
FyEConsult 0.3 2.0
-3 -3 Maximum Goldman Sachs -1.0 1.6
Maximum
Consensus Consensus HSBC -2.0 1.5
Minimum Minimum Invecq Consulting -2.0 -
-6 -6 Itaú Unibanco -2.0 1.0
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec JPMorgan -1.4 2.0
Julius Baer -1.5 0.0
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Kiel Institute 0.6 2.6
LCG -2.0 2.5
60% Moody's Analytics -1.4 2.4
OJF & Asociados -1.4 2.4
Oxford Economics -1.2 1.0
Quantum Finanzas -1.8 2.0
40%
S&P Global -1.0 1.5
Société Générale -2.8 -0.5
Torino Capital -1.6 1.9
UBS -2.6 1.6
20%
UIA - CEU -1.7 -
Summary
Minimum -3.0 -0.5
0%
Maximum 0.6 3.0
<-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 >2.0 Median -1.5 1.9
Consensus -1.5 1.7
History
30 days ago -1.5 1.7
60 days ago -1.8 1.8
90 days ago -1.6 1.9
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Jan. 2020) -1.3 1.4
World Bank (Jan. 2020) -1.3 1.4
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
20
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
ABECEB 0.3 2.4 -2.4 5.0
10
Analytica Consultora -2.9 - - -
Banco de Galicia -3.6 - -9.0 -
Barclays Capital - - -0.6 10.0
0
BBVA Argentina -2.5 -0.2 -10.0 -1.5
BTG Pactual -3.5 - -7.5 -
C&T Asesores -2.2 1.2 -3.0 5.2
-10
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.8 2.7 - -
DEF -1.6 3.4 -13.0 1.8 Argentina
DuckerFrontier -3.5 2.3 - - Latin America

-20
Eco Go 1.0 - -8.0 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ecolatina -1.1 3.3 -8.1 0.3
Econométrica -3.2 - -12.5 -
Econviews 0.0 2.4 -5.0 1.5 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
EIU -2.3 3.1 -4.5 2.5
Euromonitor Int. -2.4 0.8 - - 4
FIEL -1.1 3.1 -7.7 9.8
Fitch Solutions 0.0 5.9 -11.0 5.0
Fundación Capital -0.5 1.6 -9.8 12.8 2
FyEConsult 0.3 2.2 0.4 2.8
Goldman Sachs -0.7 1.5 -7.4 0.4
HSBC -5.1 3.8 -4.6 3.5 0
Invecq Consulting -3.0 - -7.0 -
LCG -2.7 2.5 -9.5 5.0
Moody's Analytics -2.6 2.1 -7.3 7.9 -2
OJF & Asociados -5.6 1.4 -2.6 4.8 2020 2021
Oxford Economics -3.8 0.7 -14.7 0.3
Quantum Finanzas -2.5 1.7 -7.7 3.3 -4
S&P Global -2.5 1.3 - - Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Société Générale -0.6 1.4 -4.5 -1.5
Torino Capital -0.8 1.2 3.6 3.6
8 | Investment | variation in %
UBS -2.5 1.5 -8.5 2.5
Summary 40
Minimum -5.6 -0.2 -14.7 -1.5
Maximum 1.0 5.9 3.6 12.8
Median -2.4 2.1 -7.5 3.4
20
Consensus -2.0 2.1 -6.7 3.9
History
30 days ago -2.2 2.0 -7.3 4.3
0
60 days ago -2.8 2.0 -8.1 3.9
90 days ago -2.7 1.9 -8.2 3.7
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
10
0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
-5
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -10
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
10 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
18
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
12 ABECEB 0.3 - 10.3 9.8 - -
Banco de Galicia -1.9 - 10.9 - -2.3 -
6 Barclays Capital - - - - -4.2 -3.5
BBVA Argentina - - 10.4 9.8 - -
BNP Paribas - - - - -4.0 -
0
BTG Pactual -4.0 - 11.0 - -4.0 -
C&T Asesores - - 10.3 10.2 - -
-6 Capital Economics - - 10.0 9.5 -4.0 -4.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - -4.2 -4.2
DEF -1.5 2.2 10.1 8.5 -2.1 -2.0
-12
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 DekaBank - - 11.2 10.8 -4.8 -4.2
DuckerFrontier -2.8 0.5 11.2 10.4 - -
Eco Go - - 13.2 - -1.8 -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Ecolatina - - 11.2 10.6 -3.2 -2.0
Econométrica -3.0 - 10.5 - -4.0 -
4 Econviews - - 10.6 10.5 - -
EIU -2.4 4.0 9.8 9.3 -4.8 -4.2
Euromonitor Int. 0.4 1.0 - - -2.8 -
2 FIEL - - 9.5 8.7 - -
Fitch Solutions - - 11.5 10.5 -4.5 -3.2
Fundación Capital -0.1 1.6 10.4 9.4 -2.6 -1.6
0 FyEConsult - - 11.0 - -2.5 -2.0
Goldman Sachs - - 10.0 9.0 -4.0 -3.8
HSBC -2.9 3.6 - - - -
-2 Invecq Consulting -3.0 - 12.0 - -4.0 -
Itaú Unibanco - - 11.0 11.0 -3.8 -3.8
2020 2021
JPMorgan - - - - -3.0 -
-4 LCG 0.9 3.2 11.8 11.5 -3.5 -
Moody's Analytics -2.7 2.1 10.4 9.8 - -
OJF & Asociados - - - - -4.1 -3.1
Oxford Economics -1.2 1.3 10.4 9.8 -4.0 -2.9
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Quantum Finanzas -4.2 4.6 11.4 10.9 -2.5 -1.8
25
S&P Global - - 10.5 10.7 - -
Argentina Société Générale - - 13.1 13.6 -3.4 -3.1
Latin America Torino Capital - - 11.4 9.9 - -
20
UBS -2.0 2.0 12.0 12.0 -4.0 -3.5
UIA - CEU -2.6 - - - - -
Summary
Minimum -4.2 0.5 9.5 8.5 -4.8 -4.2
15
Maximum 0.9 4.6 13.2 13.6 -1.8 -1.6
Median -2.4 2.1 10.9 10.2 -4.0 -3.2
Consensus -1.9 2.4 10.9 10.3 -3.5 -3.1
10
History
30 days ago -2.3 2.2 11.1 10.6 -3.5 -3.0
60 days ago -2.5 2.4 11.4 10.9 -3.7 -3.0
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 90 days ago -2.0 2.6 11.5 10.5 -3.7 -3.1
13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
-5 All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos) and the
Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economía y Producción). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Argentina 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.
Latin America 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices 60
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Argentina
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 Latin America
45
ABECEB 41.0 33.5 46.8 37.4
Analytica Consultora 40.4 - 47.2 -
Banco de Galicia 40.0 - 48.2 - 30
Banco Supervielle 38.2 26.5 47.2 30.6
Barclays Capital 40.0 30.0 46.5 34.8
15
BBVA Argentina 50.1 49.0 53.3 48.4
BNP Paribas - - 50.0 -
BTG Pactual 45.0 - - - 0
C&T Asesores 41.1 30.5 47.9 34.1
Capital Economics - - 45.0 35.0 -15
Citigroup Global Mkts 43.0 38.0 50.4 39.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Agricole 48.0 35.0 - -
DEF 39.4 27.8 46.0 33.7
DekaBank - - 49.9 29.2 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
DuckerFrontier - - 49.2 33.7
60
Eco Go 38.6 - 46.2 - Argentina
Ecolatina 40.0 33.2 47.5 37.0 Latin America
Econométrica 42.6 - 48.6 -
Econviews 45.0 40.0 48.8 43.0
40
EIU 39.1 26.1 49.9 29.2
Euromonitor Int. - - 46.7 36.5
FIEL 33.7 28.1 44.3 29.5
Fitch Solutions 38.6 29.5 45.3 33.3
20
Fundación Capital 42.3 33.0 48.8 36.7
FyEConsult 36.8 30.0 47.4 30.6
Goldman Sachs 37.0 27.8 42.4 35.5
HSBC 40.0 - - -
Invecq Consulting 42.0 - 49.0 - 0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Itaú Unibanco 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0
JPMorgan 41.2 - 50.2 34.2
Julius Baer - - 43.5 29.5
16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
LCG 41.7 36.7 46.6 40.4
Moody's Analytics 42.5 32.3 49.4 35.8 80
OJF & Asociados 52.8 40.0 53.6 41.6 Maximum
Oxford Economics 44.8 31.4 49.7 36.2 Consensus
Minimum
Quantum Finanzas 42.3 27.2 51.5 31.6 60
S&P Global 40.0 25.0 50.0 30.0
Société Générale - - 60.0 35.0
Torino Capital 45.0 31.0 - - 40
UBS 38.0 31.9 47.6 33.7
Summary
Minimum 33.7 25.0 42.4 29.2 20
Maximum 52.8 49.0 60.0 48.4
Median 41.1 31.4 48.0 34.9
Consensus 41.6 32.7 48.3 35.3 0
History Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
30 days ago 41.9 32.4 48.4 35.1
60 days ago 41.8 29.7 48.8 34.8
90 days ago 41.7 28.6 48.3 32.6 17 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst
80
IMF (Oct. 2019) 39.2 29.6 51.0 32.3
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
60
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes 40
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de
Estadísticas y Censos) and from the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Inflation data from December 2017 and onward refers to national inflation and is
sourced from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC). Prior to December 2017, historical data refers to Buenos 20
Aires inflation.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop).

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop). 0
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop forecasts during the last 18 months. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
18 | Interest Rate | 2005 - 2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Argentina
Argentina ABECEB 40.00 33.00
Latin America
Latin America Analytica Consultora 40.23 -
60 Banco de Galicia 33.00 -
40 Banco Supervielle 33.13 26.45
BBVA Argentina 40.00 37.00
40 C&T Asesores 41.00 31.00
Capital Economics 45.00 35.00
20 Citigroup Global Mkts 32.00 30.00
20 DEF 37.50 31.50
Eco Go 45.00 -
Ecolatina 35.00 29.50
0 0 Econométrica 37.00 -
2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Econviews 40.00 32.00
FIEL 40.00 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Fundación Capital 35.00 30.00
FyEConsult 37.80 32.96
80 80
Maximum Maximum HSBC 32.00 25.00
Consensus Consensus Invecq Consulting 40.00 -
Minimum Minimum Itaú Unibanco 30.00 30.00
60 60
LCG 38.00 30.42
OJF & Asociados 30.00 -
Oxford Economics 31.60 22.26
40 40
Quantum Finanzas 27.20 26.60
UBS 40.00 30.00
Summary
20 20
Minimum 27.20 22.26
Maximum 45.00 37.00
Median 37.65 30.00
0 0 Consensus 36.69 30.16
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
History
30 days ago 37.84 30.18
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution 60 days ago 40.55 31.35
90 days ago 42.49 31.69
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 >55.0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data
are from the The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República
Argentina). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest Rate, 7-day LELIQ rate from 2005 to 2024 in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ABECEB 86.09 111.94
Analytica Consultora 81.63 -
150 75 Banco de Galicia 80.84 -
Banco Supervielle 77.88 96.08
100 50 BBVA Argentina 86.00 110.00
C&T Asesores 77.56 95.13
50 25 Citigroup Global Mkts 78.00 102.00
DEF 77.93 99.02
Eco Go 76.61 -
0 0 Ecolatina 76.75 96.31
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Econométrica 89.91 -
Econviews 80.00 109.00
25 | ARS per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst
EIU 66.09 74.56
FIEL 78.10 96.87
140 140
Fitch Solutions 80.21 102.11
Maximum Maximum Fundación Capital 82.00 106.00
Consensus Consensus FyEConsult 74.81 91.31
Minimum Minimum
HSBC 85.00 -
105 105 Invecq Consulting 80.00 -
Itaú Unibanco 80.00 112.00
JPMorgan 80.00 -
LCG 79.06 109.73
70 70 Moody's Analytics 77.07 89.38
OJF & Asociados 79.71 99.32
Quantum Finanzas 78.60 96.50
35 35 S&P Global 85.00 90.00
Summary
Minimum 66.09 74.56
27 | ARS per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Maximum 90.00 115.00
Median 79.93 99.17
60% Consensus 79.93 99.95
History
30 days ago 79.98 99.05
60 days ago 87.45 109.80
40% 90 days ago 88.50 108.07
20%
0%
<60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 >95.0
Notes and sources
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data are
from Refinitiv. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance 12
% of GDP USD bn
Argentina
ABECEB 0.7 0.3 15.3 14.9
Analytica Consultora -0.1 - 23.5 - 6
Banco de Galicia 1.3 - 24.7 -
Banco Supervielle - - 16.7 13.7
Barclays Capital -1.6 -0.4 16.3 9.7
BBVA Argentina -0.7 -0.7 16.5 16.9 0
BNP Paribas -1.5 - - -
BTG Pactual 0.4 - 18.0 -
C&T Asesores -1.7 -1.4 16.1 16.3
Capital Economics -2.0 -2.5 - - -6
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.4 -2.1 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Agricole 0.6 0.3 - -
DEF 1.0 0.8 17.1 11.7
DekaBank 0.3 -0.1 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Eco Go 1.1 - 16.5 -
Ecolatina 0.3 -0.3 16.9 14.8 2
2020 2021
Econviews 0.5 0.7 15.1 14.1
EIU 0.3 -0.1 19.6 16.5
Euromonitor Int. -0.8 -1.0 15.2 13.5 0
FIEL 1.1 0.0 20.7 14.2
Fitch Solutions 0.4 -1.6 19.1 10.4
FyEConsult 0.3 - 12.6 - -2
Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.1 19.7 22.2
HSBC 2.3 - 14.9 12.8
Invecq Consulting 0.5 - 17.9 -
Itaú Unibanco 0.4 0.0 - - -4
JPMorgan 0.9 1.3 21.5 17.5 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
LCG -0.6 - 17.2 -
Moody's Analytics -2.6 -3.0 - -
OJF & Asociados 3.2 2.2 19.1 17.8 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Oxford Economics 0.5 0.5 25.2 27.1 100
Quantum Finanzas -0.3 -0.5 19.7 19.0
Société Générale -0.1 0.3 - -
Torino Capital -1.8 -1.8 17.3 14.7 75
UBS -0.5 -0.9 14.5 14.4

UIA - CEU - - 16.3 - 50
Summary
Minimum -2.6 -3.0 12.6 9.7
25
Maximum 3.2 2.2 25.2 27.1
Median 0.3 -0.1 17.2 14.8
Consensus 0.0 -0.4 18.0 15.7 0
Trade Balance
History Exports
30 days ago 0.0 -0.3 17.7 15.8 Imports
-25
60 days ago -0.2 -0.2 18.4 16.6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
90 days ago -0.3 -0.4 17.7 16.5
31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
20
15
10
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 65.1 67.5 49.8 52.5 20
Analytica Consultora 68.1 - 44.6 -
Banco de Galicia 71.4 - 46.7 -
Banco Supervielle 65.8 68.4 49.1 54.7 0
BBVA Argentina 66.9 70.9 50.4 54.0
BTG Pactual 66.0 - 48.0 - -20
C&T Asesores 68.1 72.1 52.0 55.7
Argentina
DEF 67.0 65.7 49.9 54.0
Latin America
Eco Go 68.4 - 51.8 - -40
Ecolatina 65.8 67.2 48.9 52.4 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Econviews 65.4 69.3 50.4 55.2
EIU 66.4 67.8 46.8 51.3 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Euromonitor Int. 64.9 66.3 49.7 52.8
FIEL 68.6 69.7 47.9 55.5 80
FyEConsult 63.4 - 50.8 -
Goldman Sachs 67.7 71.3 48.0 49.1 75
HSBC 66.2 68.1 51.3 55.4
Invecq Consulting 66.9 - 49.0 -
JPMorgan 65.8 69.1 44.3 51.6
LCG 67.7 - 50.4 - 70
OJF & Asociados 68.0 67.5 49.0 49.7
Oxford Economics 69.2 73.1 44.0 46.0 2020 2021
Quantum Finanzas 66.0 71.0 46.3 52.0
Torino Capital 66.2 67.9 48.9 53.2 65
UBS 64.1 65.0 49.6 50.6 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
UIA - CEU 65.3 - 49.0 -
Summary
34 | Imports | variation in %
Minimum 63.4 65.0 44.0 46.0
Maximum 71.4 73.1 52.0 59.9 100
Median 66.3 68.4 49.0 53.1
Consensus 66.7 68.7 48.7 53.1
History 50
30 days ago 66.6 69.1 48.9 53.3
60 days ago 67.3 69.8 48.9 53.2
90 days ago 67.5 71.1 49.8 54.6 0
-50
Argentina
Latin America
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
75
2020 2021
65
Notes and sources

55
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 45
34 Imports, annual variation in %. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
35 Imports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt 18
USD bn USD bn
Banco de Galicia 40.0 - - -
Banco Supervielle 52.5 53.6 - - 12
Barclays Capital 47.4 51.9 260 250
BNP Paribas 50.0 - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 41.0 37.0 261 268
DEF 49.0 54.2 - - 6
Eco Go 44.8 - - -
Ecolatina 41.7 43.1 - - Argentina
Econométrica 44.0 - - -
Latin America
Econviews 49.0 54.0 - - 0
EIU 44.3 52.1 277 296 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. 44.0 44.5 - -
FIEL 43.2 44.5 287 305
Fitch Solutions 42.4 42.4 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Fundación Capital 50.0 - - -
FyEConsult 48.3 - 281 285 90
Goldman Sachs - - 240 225
Invecq Consulting - - 295 -
Itaú Unibanco 40.0 40.0 - -
JPMorgan 42.1 45.9 - - 70
LCG 45.0 46.6 - -
Oxford Economics - - 323 339
Quantum Finanzas 48.2 51.0 - -
Torino Capital 44.8 45.6 280 287 50
UBS 40.0 40.0 276 243
UIA - CEU 50.0 - - -
2020 2021
Summary
Minimum 40.0 37.0 240 225 30
Maximum 52.5 54.2 323 339 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Median 44.8 45.7 279 285
Consensus 45.3 46.7 278 278
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
History
30 days ago 45.3 48.1 275 276 200
60 days ago 41.2 45.7 280 287 Argentina
90 days ago 39.0 43.1 288 311 Latin America
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
370
2020 2021
335
Notes and sources

300
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 265
38 External debt as % of GDP. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
39 External debt, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (14.9 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.5 m)
Argentina
Rosario (1.4 m) 7.5% Argentina
Area (km2): 2,780,400 10.4%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 44.6 Other Other

18.0%
22.8%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 16.0
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.9 Chile
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.5 Brazil
5.7%
Peru
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 0.9 5.4% 35.0% Colombia
Brazil
6.3%
Language: Spanish Colombia
36.1%
Measures: Metric system 8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico

Mexico 23.4%
20.9%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2017)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 140 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 71.0
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17.7 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,224 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,895
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 132
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 121 40 Other Industry 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 711
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 709 20 0 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 203 Consumption
0 -30
Transportation (2015)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 231,374
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca
Other U.S.A. Other U.S.A.

Political Data 11.9% 5.5%

11.2%

11.2%

EU-27
President: Alberto Fernández MENA 18.1%
Other EU-27
8.8%
Last elections: 27 October 2019 12.6%
Chile
Next elections: 2023 5.1% Exports
Brazil
25.1% Imports Germany
Central Bank President: Miguel Ángel Pesce Other Asia
ex-Japan
5.3%

11.4% Other Asia
ex-Japan
Brazil 6.9%
18.8%
China
7.6% Other China
Other
LatAm LatAm 16.1%
11.6%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 12.7%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Caa2 Under Review
S&P Global Ratings: CCC- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: CCC- N/A
Other Mineral Other

Strengths Weaknesses 8.5%
Fuels 7.3%
9.2%
• Well educated labor force • High fiscal deficit

Manufact.
• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks Products
• Financial support from the IMF • High inflation Exports 28.3%

Imports
Food
63.3%

Manufact.
Products
83.5%
.

FOCUSECONOMICS Brazil February 2020
Brazil
Outlook stable
Brazil
• Momentum appeared to wane in the final quarter of last year after growth
accelerated in the third quarter. Economic activity fell in December, while
industrial output also declined in the same month. Moreover, retail sales
in Q4 were disappointing, boding ill for private consumption in the quarter.
Looking at the first quarter of 2020, survey data revealed confidence
was mixed at the outset of the year: In January, consumers were more
downbeat, although businesses were more optimistic. Meanwhile,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages merchandise exports plunged to an over four-year low in January on
a sharp contraction in manufactured goods. The recent coronavirus
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 207 211 215 outbreak could have a pronounced effect on external demand in Q1,
GDP (USD bn): 1,916 1,898 2,223 particularly as commodity markets have been hard hit and China is a
GDP per capita (USD): 9,262 8,977 10,325 major trading partner for Brazil. Nevertheless, domestic demand is likely
GDP growth (%): -0.2 1.9 2.6
keeping growth afloat, thanks in part to a low interest-rate environment.
Inflation (%): 5.3 3.8 3.7 • The outlook for 2020 is favorable. Domestic demand should power the
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.4 -2.9 -3.0 expansion, driven by improving economic sentiment and looser monetary
External Debt (% of GDP): 16.8 17.3 15.7
Lindsey Ice policy. Conversely, fiscal tightening will dampen growth, while the external
Economist sector will likely remain lackluster. Delayed reform efforts ahead of local
elections in October represents a risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics
analysts project growth of 2.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last
month’s estimate. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.5%.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
4
2.8 • Inflation inched down to 4.2% in January from 4.3% in December, slightly
above the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% for the end of 2020. Inflation
0
2.6
is projected to soften further this year as labor market slack and the
government’s fiscal austerity are expected to offset upside pressure
2.4
from electricity price hikes and a very weak real. Our panel sees inflation
-4
2.2
ending 2020 at 3.7% and 2021 at 3.8%.
2020 2021
-8 2.0 • At its 4–5 February meeting, the Central Bank delivered its fifth
consecutive rate cut in a bid to buttress the economic recovery, bringing
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. the SELIC rate to 4.25%. While COPOM struck a hawkish tone, signaling
it would pause its cycle, panelists remain split on the outlook: Nearly half
see the Bank on hold, while roughly the other half see the Bank raising
rates. Focus Economics Consensus panelists project the SELIC rate to
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts end 2020 at 4.47% and 2021 at 5.85%.
12 4.4
Brazil
Latin America
2020 2021
• The real plummeted to a new low in mid-February as the coronavirus
9 4.2
outbreak unsettled FX markets. On 13 February, COPOM intervened to
curb the depreciation. On 14 February, the currency ended the day at 4.30
6 4.0
per USD, depreciating 3.8% month-on-month. The BRL should recover
3 3.8 ahead, supported by the pick-up in economic activity. Our panel sees the
real ending 2020 at 4.06 per USD and 2021 at 4.07 per USD.
0 3.6

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economic activity declines at quickest pace in 10
5.0 1.8
months in December
Economic activity fell 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms in
2.5 1.4
December, following November’s revised 0.1% decrease (previously reported:
% %
+0.2% month-on-month) and missing expectations of a softer 0.2% drop.
0.0 1.0
On an annual basis, economic activity rose 1.3% in December up from a
downwardly revised 0.8% in November (previously reported: +1.1% year-on-
-2.5 0.6
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale) year), while annual average growth in economic activity edged down to 0.9%
Annual average (right scale)
from 0.8%.
-5.0 0.2
Looking ahead, economic output is expected to gain some impetus on the

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %. back of a looser monetary stance, which should in part fuel fixed investment.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Moreover, a tighter labor market and government measures aimed at increasing
households’ disposable income should support consumer spending.
The Central Bank forecasts GDP to expand 2.2% in 2020. Our panel of
analysts also see the economy growing 2.2% in 2020, which is unchanged
from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel projects that growth will
accelerate to 2.5%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial output falls in December rounding out the

worst performance in three years in 2019
14 4
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
Industrial production slipped 0.7% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted
Annual average (right scale) terms in December, following the 1.7% decline in November (previously
7 2
reported: -1.2% month-on-month). The print missed market expectations of
a softer 0.5% dip.
0 0
% % Capital goods output fell at the sharpest rate in over a year-and-a-half and
-7 -2 production of consumers goods also declined in December, albeit at a softer
pace than in November. On the bright side, intermediate goods output
-14 -4 rebounded slightly in the month. Among sectors, industrial output fell in 17
of the 26 surveyed, with the largest drops recorded in the automotive and
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and machinery and equipment sectors.
annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and
FocusEconomics calculations.
On an annual basis, industrial production dropped 1.2% in December, which
was less steep than the 1.7% decline registered in November. All told, average
industrial output fell 1.1% in 2019 compared to the 1.0% rise registered in
2018 and marked the worst result since 2016.
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus

Consensus Forecast see industrial production expanding 2.5% in 2020, which
Purchasing Managers’ Index is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, industrial
output is projected to grow 2.8%.
56
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing operating conditions improve in January

53
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector improved at a quicker pace in
January, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to
51.0 from 50.2 in December. Consequently, the PMI edged a notch above
50 the 50-threshold and continued to signal an overall improvement in business
conditions in the manufacturing sector over the previous month.
47 The manufacturing sector strengthened slightly at the outset of 2020, as

new business inflows and production gained traction. New orders picked up
Note: Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a from December, although demand was curbed by competitive conditions,
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: IHS Markit.
uncertainty surrounding economic policies, and declining new export orders.

In light of subdued demand, goods producers continued to reduce backlogs

of work in January and scaled back purchasing activity, while using up
current inventories. On a positive note, hiring activity rebounded in January,
and increased at the fastest pace since last September. Nevertheless,
manufacturers remained optimistic at the start of 2020, with just over three
quarters of all survey respondents expecting output growth in the year ahead.
In terms of prices, input cost inflation softened in January, but remained

elevated due to higher costs for raw materials, which were offset by some
discounting due to ample stocks. Furthermore, selling charges increased at a
stronger pace in January, although the rate of output inflation remained below
that of input.
Commenting on January’s result, Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at

IHS Markit noted:
“While comfort can be taken from the fact that Brazil’s manufacturing industry
remains in expansion mode, the latest PMI results suggest that growth failed
to gain meaningful traction.”
REAL SECTOR | Retail sales fall in December

Retail Sales | variation in % Retail sales, excluding cars and construction, fell 0.1% over the prior month
4 4 on a seasonally-adjusted basis in December, contrasting November’s revised
0.7% increase (previously reported: +0.6% month-on-month). The figure
2 3
disappointed analysts’ expectations of a 0.2% rise and marked the poorest
result in eight months.
%
%
0 2
December’s decline was driven by declining sales of food products, beverages
and tobacco; pharmaceutical and medical goods; and clothing and footwear.
-2 1
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
Conversely, higher sales of furniture and household appliances, and books
Annual average (right scale) and other stationery goods offset the drop.
-4 0
On an annual basis, retail sales growth eased to 2.7% in December from 3.1%
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted retail sales and annual
average growth rate in %. in November. Meanwhile, annual average growth in retail sales increased to
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics
calculations. 1.9% in December from 1.6% in November.
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

forecast retail sales to increase 3.2% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel also sees retail sales
growing 3.2%.
Consumer Confidence Index
110 OUTLOOK | Consumers turn more pessimistic at the start of the year
The seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) ticked down to 90.4 points in January from
100
91.6 points in December. As such, the index remained below the 100-point
threshold separating consumer pessimism from optimism.
90
January’s deterioration was across the board, as households were more
downbeat about their current economic situation, while their view on future
80 conditions turned pessimistic.
Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see private consumption
threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic growing 2.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For
conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation. 2021, the panel sees private consumption rising 2.8%.

Business Confidence Index OUTLOOK | Business confidence crosses into optimistic territory for
105
first time in over a year and a half in January
Business sentiment in Brazil’s industrial sector improved in January with
the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) industrial
100 business confidence index increasing to 100.5 points from December’s 99.4
points. The result marked an over one-and-a-half year high and notched in
just above the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
95 among Brazilian companies.
Business confidence improved across the board, as firms were slightly less
90
Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 pessimistic about the current economic situation while their outlook on future
economic conditions turned upbeat.
Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold
represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to
improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see fixed
investment rising 5.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. In 2021, participants project fixed investment to record
a 4.9% expansion.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases in January

Consumer prices increased 0.21% month-on-month in January, following
December’s sharp 1.15% increase. The reading underwhelmed market
expectations of a 0.34% rise. Lower food and beverage costs, particularly as
meat prices receded after surging at the end of last year, and cheaper health
1.5 6.0
and personal care. Conversely, housing registered the highest price increases
Year-on-year (right scale) in January.
1.0 5.0
Inflation edged down to 4.2% in January from 4.3% in December, which was
0.5 4.0 comfortably within the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% with a tolerance band
% % of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the end of 2020. Annual average
0.0 3.0
inflation, on the other hand, increased to 3.8% in January from 3.7% in
December.
-0.5 2.0
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 In a scenario based upon market expectations, the Central Bank sees inflation
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
ending 2020 at 3.4% and 2021 at 3.8%. FocusEconomics participants see
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). inflation closing 2020 at 3.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel projects inflation to end the year at
3.8%.
MONETARY SECTOR | COPOM slashes key interest rate in February,

suggests holding pattern ahead
At its 4–5 February meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy
Committee (COPOM) unanimously voted to cut the benchmark SELIC interest
Monetary Policy Rate | in % rate from 4.50% to a new record low of 4.25%, as had been expected.
15
The Committee’s latest rate reduction came on the back of below-target

inflation expectations and the Bank’s ongoing efforts to revive economic
12
growth, with February’s meeting marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
Inflation ended 2019 just above the Central Bank’s 4.25% target for 2019 at
9
4.31%. That said, COPOM expects inflation to come in around 3.4% at the
%
end of 2020 and 3.8% for the end of 2021, based on market expectations.
6
The Bank’s inflation target for 2020 is 4.0% with a tolerance band of plus or
minus 1.5 percentage points. The Committee continues to view the risks to
3 the inflation outlook as fairly balanced, with upward price pressures stemming
Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20
from the COPOM’s easing cycle, while stagnant economic activity poses a
Note: SELIC target rate (Taxa SELIC meta) in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil). downside risk.

COPOM continued to judge the economic recovery to be on a stronger footing,

while the external environment for emerging market economies remains
favorable. Even so, although the third quarter GDP result was promising,
more recent data sent mixed signals about whether the economy was able to
maintain momentum in the fourth quarter. The Central Bank also alluded to
uncertainty surrounding the government’s policies in its latest release: While
noting that “the process of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian
economy has advanced”, the Bank also highlighted the risk of stalled reforms
hampering the ongoing recovery.
In its forward guidance, the Bank suggested it would stay on hold as the
lagged effects of its easing cycle, which began last July, continue to work
through to the economy. In its press release, it stated “the Committee
deems appropriate to interrupt the monetary easing process” and keep rates
unchanged; however, it also stressed that it would remain data dependent,
“with increasing weight for 2021”.
Commenting on the monetary policy outlook, Cassiana Fernandez, Cristiano

Souza and Vinicius Moreira, economists at JPMorgan, explained:
“COPOM stepped up the hawkish tone signaling the end of the easing cycle.
[…] Going forward, after the expected pause in the next two quarters, we see
the central bank (CB) starting a slow normalization of rates by September.
However, we acknowledge that one important risk to this scenario emerged
in the last weeks. At this point, we believe that the effects of coronavirus in
the global economy could significantly lower the demand for Brazilian exports,
which could delay the closing of the output gap and defer the normalization
process.”
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 17–18 March 2020.
FocusEconomics panelists forecast the SELIC rate to end 2020 at 4.47% and
to end 2021 at 5.85%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Real plunges to new record low in February amid

coronavirus fears; Central Bank intervenes
The Brazilian real continued its downward spiral in early February, hitting an
all-time low of BRL 4.36 per USD on 12 February, marking an over 6.0%
Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
depreciation over the prior month. Consequently, the Central Bank stepped
in the following day to relieve pressures on the currency. The real has since
4.5
recovered somewhat and ended 14 February at 4.30 per USD, marking a
3.8% depreciation over the same day in January. The currency was down
6.5% year-on-year and 13.4% year-to-date.
4.0
The real came under pressure in February amid growing alarm over the
3.5
outbreak of the new coronavirus in China and its subsequent spread
elsewhere, which has sharply curbed investor appetite for emerging
market assets. Declared as a global health emergency by the World Health
3.0 Organization, the outbreak has sparked a flight to safe-haven assets over
Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
fears of the implications for the world’s second largest economy and supply
Note: Daily spot of real (BRL) against U.S. dollar (USD).
chains at large. The outbreak has also hit commodity prices, which added to
Source: Refinitiv. the real’s slide. The real’s attractiveness was further undermined by domestic
pressures, as the Central Bank cut the benchmark rate to a new historic low
at its 4–5 February meeting, while investors warily eye whether President
Bolsonaro’s government will follow through on policy reforms.

As a result of the real’s marked depreciation so far this year, on 13 February

the Central Bank intervened by selling USD 1 billion in foreign exchange
swaps. This follows the Bank’s last intervention to support the currency in late
November 2019.
Looking ahead, the real is expected to remain weak but should recover some
losses before year-end, supported by stronger economic activity, ongoing
fiscal discipline and the reform agenda. Conversely, record-low interest rates
and a worsening trade balance could weigh on the BRL, while external risks,
political developments and/or stalled reform efforts could cause volatility.
Commenting on the real’s trajectory going forward, Gustavo Rangel, chief

LATAM economist at ING, noted:
“The extraordinary amount of FX outflows seen in recent months continues to

show no sign of abating […] Overall, it’s unclear how long and how persistent
these outflows will be but, for us, a more supportive BRL environment
depends on the eventual confirmation that the monetary easing cycle has
been concluded (with no additional policy rate cuts) and, more importantly,
stronger evidence that an activity recovery is firmly under way.”
Our panel sees the real ending 2020 at 4.06 per USD and 2021 at 4.07 per
USD.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account deficit narrows in December

Brazil’s current account posted a USD 5.7 billion deficit in December,
narrowing from the USD 6.1 billion shortfall registered in December 2018
but significantly wider than the revised USD 2.1 billion deficit in November
Current Account Balance | USD billion (previously reported: USD 2.2 billion).
0 -10
The result was largely due to a smaller primary income deficit as well as a
narrower merchandise trade surplus (December: USD 5.6 bn; December
-4 -30 2018: USD 6.4 bn). Exports posted a sizable contraction in December amid
subdued demand from key trading partners, particularly Argentina, although
imports also fell but at a softer pace. Conversely, foreign direct investment
-8 -50
jumped at the end of the year, totaling USD 9.4 billion (December 2018: USD
Monthly current account (left scale)
8.3 bn). The shortfall in the services account widened in December compared
12-month current account balance (right scale)
to the same month last year.
-12 -70
Accordingly, the full-year current account deficit rose to USD 50.8 billion in
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations. 2019 from USD 41.5 billion deficit recorded in 2018, which was equivalent to
approximately 2.8% of GDP.
The panel sees a current account deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2020. For 2021,
the panel sees the deficit at 3.1% of GDP.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 203 205 207 208 210 211 213 214 215 216
GDP (USD bn) 1,796 1,800 2,063 1,885 1,830 1,861 2,002 2,115 2,222 2,331
GDP (BRL bn) 5,996 6,269 6,583 6,889 7,221 7,650 8,136 8,649 9,190 9,762
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -3.5 -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -6.3 -4.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.2 -3.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.4 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -13.9 -12.1 -2.6 3.9 3.3 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 0.9 4.9 4.0 -1.8 2.1 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -14.2 -10.3 6.7 8.3 1.8 4.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.2 -6.4 2.5 1.0 -1.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -4.4 -6.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 4.50 4.47 5.85 6.15 6.37 6.59
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 16.49 11.42 10.21 9.24 6.81 6.88 7.31 7.66 7.94 8.22
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 3.96 3.25 3.31 3.88 4.02 4.06 4.07 4.11 4.16 4.21
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.34 3.48 3.19 3.65 3.95 4.11 4.06 4.09 4.14 4.19
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -1.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -54.5 -24.2 -15.0 -41.5 -50.8 -55.2 -61.3 -63.7 -66.9 -70.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 19.5 47.6 67.0 58.0 46.7 35.8 32.5 30.5 29.0 28.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 191 185 218 239 224 230 241 251 261 271
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 171 138 151 181 177 195 208 220 232 243
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.1 -3.0 17.5 9.9 -6.4 2.8 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -25.2 -19.8 9.6 20.2 -2.1 9.7 7.1 5.8 5.2 4.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 64.7 74.3 68.9 78.2 78.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 356 365 374 375 357 356 358 359 361 363
External Debt (USD bn) 335 326 317 321 324 327 330 340 350 360
External Debt (% of GDP) 18.6 18.1 15.4 17.0 17.7 17.6 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.7 -1.4 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 7.7 2.8 1.1 5.4 2.9 4.2 5.3 4.0 4.7 5.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.0 -1.3 -2.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.3 0.3 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.0 3.9 3.3 2.8
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 5.50 4.50 4.24 4.26 4.28 4.47
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.95 3.81 3.77 3.92 3.97 4.12 4.10 4.15 4.11 4.08
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) -0.3 5.1 -1.5 1.2 -0.9 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.3 -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %) -0.1 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.2 0.2 1.0 -1.7 -0.7 -
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.5 50.2 51.0 49.9 52.5 53.4 52.2 52.9 50.2 51.0
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.7 -0.1 -
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 89.5 86.6 88.5 88.1 89.2 89.7 89.4 88.9 91.6 90.4
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 97.7 96.6 95.5 95.1 95.9 95.9 95.4 96.9 99.4 100.5
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.57 0.13 0.01 0.19 0.11 -0.04 0.10 0.51 1.15 0.21
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.8 -1.3 -3.0 -9.5 -3.7 -2.8 -6.5 -2.1 -5.7 -


4E Consultoria 2.8 3.1
Arazul Capital 2.0 2.5
3 Banco BV 2.4 3.0
4 Banco Fator 2.2 2.9
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.8 3.5
0 Banco Safra 2.3 2.8
0 BBVA Research 1.9 2.0
-3 BNP Paribas 2.0 3.0
Brazil Brazil Capital Economics 1.5 1.8
Latin America Latin America
World World
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 2.0
-4 -6 Commerzbank 2.0 2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Credit Agricole 2.1 2.8
Danske Bank 2.0 2.3
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Datalynk 2.2 -
DekaBank 2.3 2.1
4 4 DuckerFrontier 2.5 3.5
EIU 2.4 2.3
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.3
3 3 Fitch Ratings 2.0 2.5
Goldman Sachs 2.3 2.4
2 2 Haitong 2.5 2.8
HSBC 2.1 2.3
ING 2.7 3.0
1 1 Itaú Unibanco 2.2 3.0
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
JPMorgan 1.9 2.4
Minimum Minimum Julius Baer 2.0 1.5
0 0 KBC 2.1 2.3
Kiel Institute 1.8 2.3
LCA Consultores 2.3 2.9
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution MB Associados 1.6 2.8
Moody's Analytics 2.2 2.6
60% Oxford Economics 2.2 2.4
Petros 2.8 2.0
Pezco Economics 2.2 2.7
Rosenberg Associados 2.5 3.2
40% S&P Global 2.0 2.2
Santander 2.3 3.0
Scotiabank 2.1 2.1
Société Générale 1.7 2.4
20% Standard Chartered 2.3 2.7
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.1 2.6
Torino Capital 2.3 2.2
UBS 2.5 2.5
0% Summary
<0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 >3.6
Minimum 1.5 1.5
Maximum 2.8 3.5
Median 2.2 2.4
Consensus 2.2 2.5
History
30 days ago 2.2 2.5
60 days ago 2.1 2.5
90 days ago 2.0 2.5
Notes and sources Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (Dec. 2019) 2.2 -
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional IMF (Jan. 2020) 2.2 2.3
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography World Bank (Jan. 2020) 2.5 3.0
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.


8
4E Consultoria 3.2 4.0 5.3 5.2
Arazul Capital 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5
4
Banco Fator 2.6 2.0 8.5 7.7
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.0 3.5 6.0 4.5
Banco Safra 2.6 - 5.5 -
0
BBVA Research 1.9 1.9 5.9 4.5
Capital Economics 1.8 2.5 3.0 1.0
Brazil
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.7 2.3 - -
Latin America
Danske Bank 2.7 2.9 3.0 4.0
Datalynk 2.5 - 6.1 - -4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DuckerFrontier 3.1 4.1 - -
EIU 2.0 2.5 5.0 5.0
Fitch Ratings 2.4 2.8 4.1 2.8 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Fitch Solutions 2.7 3.2 5.0 3.0 3.0
Goldman Sachs 2.7 3.2 5.7 7.0
HSBC 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.9
ING 2.5 2.8 5.5 8.0
2.8
LCA Consultores 3.2 3.4 4.7 3.2
MB Associados 1.6 2.7 3.3 5.0
Moody's Analytics 4.1 1.5 7.7 3.7
2.6
Oxford Economics 2.4 2.4 3.5 5.9
Pezco Economics 2.2 2.9 4.5 6.6
Rosenberg Associados 2.8 3.6 5.2 6.0
S&P Global 2.2 2.3 - - 2.4
Santander 2.5 3.3 6.2 7.3

2020 2021
Société Générale 1.8 2.1 5.8 5.3
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.4 2.7 4.8 5.8 2.2
Torino Capital 3.7 2.7 4.3 4.7
UBS 3.0 3.2 7.1 6.4
Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
Maximum 4.1 4.1 8.5 8.0
20
Median 2.6 2.7 5.0 5.0
Consensus 2.6 2.8 5.0 4.9
History
10
30 days ago 2.6 2.7 5.1 4.9
60 days ago 2.4 2.7 4.3 4.7
90 days ago 2.4 2.7 4.3 4.4
0
-10
Brazil
Latin America
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
5.5
5.0
Notes and sources

4.5
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4.0


15
Brazil variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
10 4E Consultoria 2.0 3.6 11.3 10.9 -3.5 -4.4
Arazul Capital 2.0 3.0 11.0 10.4 - -
5 Banco BV 2.5 - 11.7 11.2 -5.4 -3.9
Banco Fator 2.2 1.9 11.5 10.7 -5.9 -5.2
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.5 3.0 10.9 9.6 - -
0 Banco Safra 2.5 - 11.4 10.8 -4.0 -3.6
Barclays Capital 1.9 2.7 11.1 10.3 -5.5 -5.4
-5 BBVA Research - - 11.0 9.8 - -
BNP Paribas - - - - -5.4 -5.7
Capital Economics - - 11.8 11.5 -6.0 -5.5
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 10.6 9.4 -5.0 -4.7
Danske Bank - - 11.0 10.8 - -
Datalynk 2.3 - 11.5 - -5.0 -
DekaBank - - - - -4.7 -4.6
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
DuckerFrontier 3.2 3.1 11.3 10.6 - -
3.5 EIU - - - - -4.7 -4.6
Euromonitor Int. 4.9 1.4 11.0 10.1 -6.8 -
Fitch Solutions - - 10.8 10.5 -6.0 -5.9
Goldman Sachs - - 11.3 10.3 -5.8 -5.1
Haitong 2.0 3.0 11.4 10.1 -6.3 -5.6
3.0
HSBC 2.2 2.3 - - -6.3 -5.9
ING 3.5 4.0 11.0 10.0 -5.0 -4.0
Itaú Unibanco - - 11.6 11.2 -5.1 -4.2
JPMorgan - - - - -5.7 -4.8
2.5
LCA Consultores 2.8 3.1 11.3 10.9 -5.8 -5.2
MB Associados 1.6 2.4 10.9 10.0 -5.7 -5.5
2020 2021 Moody's Analytics 3.3 3.7 11.5 11.1 - -
Oxford Economics 1.8 2.8 11.1 10.1 -5.4 -4.8
2.0 Pezco Economics 2.6 2.2 11.5 10.8 -4.5 -3.9
Rosenberg Associados 3.5 3.7 11.0 10.3 - -
S&P Global - - 11.0 9.9 - -
Santander 2.0 2.5 11.0 9.4 -5.6 -5.3
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Société Générale - - 11.7 11.3 -5.6 -4.9
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.6 - 11.7 11.4 -4.9 -4.9
17
Torino Capital - - - - -5.0 -4.1
UBS 1.8 2.0 11.1 10.0 -6.2 -5.9
Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.4 10.6 9.4 -6.8 -5.9
13
Maximum 4.9 4.0 11.8 11.5 -3.5 -3.6
Median 2.4 2.9 11.2 10.4 -5.5 -4.9
Consensus 2.5 2.8 11.2 10.5 -5.4 -4.9
History
9 30 days ago 2.6 2.8 11.3 10.5 -5.3 -5.0
60 days ago 2.4 2.8 11.3 10.7 -5.6 -5.3
Brazil 90 days ago 2.3 2.7 11.2 10.6 -5.7 -5.2
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-3
-6 Notes and sources
-9 Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de
Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Brazil
Latin America
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.
-12 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.


Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
15
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Brazil
4E Consultoria 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.2
Arazul Capital 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.8
10
Banco BV - - 3.4 3.7
Banco Fator 3.4 3.5 - -
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.0
Banco Safra 3.7 3.8 - -
5
BNP Paribas - - 3.4 3.7
Capital Economics - - 4.0 3.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Commerzbank - - 3.9 4.1
Credit Agricole - - 3.8 3.7
Danske Bank - - 3.6 3.5
Datalynk 3.4 - - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
DekaBank - - 4.3 3.8 15
DuckerFrontier - - 3.8 3.9 Brazil
EIU 3.9 3.7 4.3 3.8 Latin America
Fitch Ratings 3.9 3.8 - -
10
Haitong 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.8
HSBC 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.9
5
ING 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6
Itaú Unibanco 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5
JPMorgan 3.4 3.8 - -
0
KBC - - 3.8 4.0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Kiel Institute 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
LCA Consultores 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.9
MB Associados 3.6 3.8 - -
Moody's Analytics 4.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
7
Petros - - 3.3 3.8 Maximum
Consensus
Pezco Economics 3.5 3.5 - -
Minimum
Rosenberg Associados 3.5 3.8 - - 6
S&P Global 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.8
Santander 3.4 3.8 - -
5
Scotiabank 4.2 4.1 - -
Standard Chartered - - 4.0 4.0 4
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 3.6 3.8 - -
Torino Capital 3.8 3.7 - -
3
UBS 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7
Summary
Minimum 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.3 2
Maximum 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Median 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8

Consensus 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8
History 17 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst
30 days ago 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
6
60 days ago 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 Maximum
Consensus
90 days ago 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8
Minimum
Notes and sources

4
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 3
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Brazil
Latin America
Banco BV 4.50 6.50
20 12 Banco Fator 4.25 5.75
Banco Safra 4.25 6.50
10 8 BBVA Research 4.25 7.25
Brazil Citigroup Global Mkts 4.25 6.00
Latin America Credit Agricole 4.25 4.50
0 4 Datalynk 4.25 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
DekaBank 4.50 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Goldman Sachs 4.25 6.25
Haitong 4.25 6.50
11 11
HSBC 4.25 4.25
ING 4.25 5.00
9 9
JPMorgan 4.50 -
KBC 5.00 -
LCA Consultores 4.25 5.50
7 7
Petros 5.25 7.50
5 5
Maximum Maximum Rosenberg Associados 4.50 6.00
Consensus Consensus S&P Global 4.50 5.00
Minimum Minimum
Santander 4.00 6.00
3 3
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Société Générale 4.50 -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 4.25 7.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution UBS 5.00 5.50
Summary
60% Minimum 4.00 4.25
Maximum 5.50 7.50
Median 4.25 6.00
Consensus 4.47 5.85
40% History
30 days ago 4.61 5.98
60 days ago 4.61 6.14
90 days ago 4.89 6.28
20%
0%
<3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 >5.50
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of-period indicators
are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
5 4.2 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
4 3.9 Banco BV 3.90 3.90
Banco Fator 4.19 4.35
3 3.6 Banco Safra 4.10 3.95
BBVA Research 4.00 4.05
2 3.3 BNP Paribas 4.00 3.80
1 3.0 Commerzbank 3.80 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Danske Bank 3.80 -
25 | BRL per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | BRL per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Datalynk 4.25 -
DekaBank 4.20 -
5.0 5.0
EIU 3.97 3.99
4.5 4.5 Haitong 4.00 4.10
HSBC 4.00 -
4.0 4.0
ING 3.90 3.80
JPMorgan 4.30 -
3.5 3.5 Julius Baer 4.00 4.29
KBC 3.95 -
3.0 Maximum 3.0 Maximum LCA Consultores 4.00 3.78
Consensus Consensus Moody's Analytics 4.07 4.08
Minimum Minimum Oxford Economics 4.14 4.02
2.5 2.5
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Petros 3.90 3.97
Rosenberg Associados 3.90 3.97
27 | BRL per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution S&P Global 4.15 4.20
Santander 4.00 4.10
50% Scotiabank 4.18 4.30
Standard Chartered 3.95 4.05
40% Tendências Consultoria Integrada 4.00 3.86
UBS 3.95 3.95
30%
Summary
Minimum 3.80 3.78
20% Maximum 4.37 4.35
Median 4.00 4.05
10%
Consensus 4.06 4.07
History
30 days ago 4.05 4.03
0% 60 days ago 4.02 4.00
<3.50 3.65 3.80 3.95 4.10 4.25 4.40 4.55 >4.70
90 days ago 3.99 4.00
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn
4E Consultoria -3.6 -3.9 25.0 17.5 0
Arazul Capital -3.5 -3.0 30.0 15.0
Banco BV -3.1 -3.0 34.5 26.7
Banco Fator -2.5 -2.8 39.6 40.8 -2
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -2.6 -2.2 35.0 35.0
Banco Safra -3.3 -3.5 36.0 38.0
-4
BBVA Research -2.5 -3.2 43.0 45.0
BNP Paribas -3.5 -3.4 - - Brazil
Capital Economics -3.3 -3.3 - - Latin America
-6
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.3 -3.6 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.6 - -
Datalynk -3.5 - 40.5 -
DekaBank -2.6 -3.2 - -
EIU -2.6 -3.2 42.7 34.4 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Euromonitor Int. -3.0 -2.9 35.5 32.7
-1.0
Fitch Solutions -2.4 -2.8 37.8 34.3
Goldman Sachs -3.5 -3.8 35.4 32.7
Haitong -3.0 -2.9 37.0 40.0 -1.5
HSBC -1.3 - 45.0 45.0
ING -3.0 -3.3 33.0 28.0 -2.0
Itaú Unibanco -2.7 -2.6 40.3 39.8
JPMorgan -3.5 -3.8 30.3 25.9
LCA Consultores -2.3 -1.5 34.3 36.5 -2.5
MB Associados - - 42.4 43.4
Moody's Analytics -3.9 -3.1 - - -3.0
Oxford Economics -2.9 -2.6 31.3 34.2 2020 2021
Pezco Economics -3.4 -3.4 26.8 24.7
Rosenberg Associados - - 34.7 26.1 -3.5
Santander -3.0 -3.3 38.3 29.6
Société Générale -2.5 -2.7 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -3.3 -3.2 37.4 36.6
Torino Capital -2.9 -3.1 39.0 36.0 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
UBS -2.5 -2.5 30.0 20.3
400
Summary Trade Balance
Minimum -3.9 -3.9 25.0 15.0 Exports
Imports
Maximum -1.3 -1.5 45.0 45.0 300
Median -3.0 -3.1 35.5 34.3
Consensus -3.0 -3.1 35.8 32.5 200
History
30 days ago -2.8 -2.9 36.9 34.0
60 days ago -2.5 -2.5 38.9 35.9 100
90 days ago -1.9 -2.0 44.0 41.5
0
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
Notes and sources 45
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). 40
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
In September 2020, the BCB updated its methodology for calculating the current account and revised historical data.
35
Some panelists may not yet reflect these revisions.
2020 2021
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec


Exports Imports 50
USD bn USD bn Brazil
4E Consultoria 219 229 195 211
Arazul Capital 215 225 185 210 25
Banco BV 224 236 190 209
Banco Fator 235 241 195 200
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 255 275 220 240
Banco Safra 230 244 194 206
0
Barclays Capital 222 229 191 203
BBVA Research 250 269 207 224
Datalynk 231 - 190 -
EIU 232 242 189 208
-25
Euromonitor Int. 230 240 195 207 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions 234 239 196 205
Goldman Sachs 236 248 201 216
Haitong 220 238 183 198
HSBC 240 246 195 201 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
ING 226 233 193 205
280
Itaú Unibanco 227 243 187 203
JPMorgan 227 241 197 215
LCA Consultores 227 236 193 200
265
MB Associados 233 243 191 200
Oxford Economics 224 233 193 199
Pezco Economics 222 234 196 209
250
Rosenberg Associados 241 253 207 227
Santander 227 231 189 201
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 223 228 185 192
Torino Capital 235 244 196 208 235
UBS 232 243 202 222

2020 2021
Summary
Minimum 215 225 183 192 220
Maximum 255 275 220 240
Median 230 240 194 207
Consensus 230 241 195 208
History 34 | Imports | variation in %
30 days ago 232 243 196 209
60
60 days ago 235 244 196 208
90 days ago 242 249 198 207
40
20
-20
Brazil
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
240
2020 2021
230
220
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, 200
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


USD bn USD bn Brazil
4E Consultoria 355 359 - - 30
Banco BV 350 350 - -
Banco Fator 346 346 - -
Banco Safra 364 371 - -
20
Barclays Capital 344 336 - -
BNP Paribas 340 333 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 357 357 321 318
10
Datalynk 370 - - -
EIU 351 356 - -
Euromonitor Int. 404 420 - -
0
Fitch Solutions 359 365 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 355 362 - -
Haitong 360 360 - -
HSBC 350 - - -
ING 342 332 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 353 - - -
410
LCA Consultores 343 335 332 340
MB Associados - - 307 315
Oxford Economics 358 362 334 340
395
Pezco Economics 343 341 - -
Santander 359 371 - -
Torino Capital 368 369 339 338
380
UBS 370 370 - -
Summary
Minimum 340 332 307 315
Maximum 404 420 339 340 365
Median 355 359 332 338

2020 2021
Consensus 356 358 327 330
History 350
30 days ago 359 357 331 335
60 days ago 368 369 337 348
90 days ago 375 381 336 346
50
Brazil
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
425
2020 2021
400
375
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

Fact Sheet
General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770 Other Other
18.0%
22.8%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 208 Brazil
Brazil
35.0%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 24.5 Chile
36.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.7 5.7%

Peru
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 74.3 5.4% Colombia
6.4%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015 est.): 8 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Portuguese Argentina
10.4%
Measures: Metric system Colombia
8.4% Mexico
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4 20.9%
Mexico
23.4%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,240
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,984 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 4,093
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 1,580,964
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem
Other U.S.A. U.S.A.

Political Data 15.1% 13.4%
Other
18.0% 15.2%

President: Jair Bolsonaro

Argentina
Last elections: 28 October 2018 7.8% EU-27
Argentina

15.6% Other EU-27
Next elections: 2022 7.2%
Exports Imports 14.2%
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto Other

LatAm
Other
11.1% Other Asia LatAm Germany
ex-Japan 9.7%
6.6%

8.5%

Other Asia
China ex-Japan
China 18.1% 10.9%
28.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Positive Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable
Other Food Other

6.0% 6.4% 4.5%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral
Fuels
13.3%
• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic Food
37.0%

orthodoxy inequalities Manufact.
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure Exports Products Imports
38.5%
diversified production creates bottleneck for economic
• Stable financial system growth
Mineral
Manufact.
• Strong foreign direct investment • Privatization and deregulation Fuels Ores & Products
7.4% Metals
flows bolster capital account lagging 11.0%
75.8%

FOCUSECONOMICS Chile February 2020
Chile Interview
Interview with Gemines
In October, President Sebastian Piñera hailed Chile as an oasis of stability in Latin America. However, the civil unrest that
engulfed the country later that month and the subsequent promise of a new constitution have cast doubts over Chile’s
economic model, which has fostered almost three decades of stellar economic growth. With the institutional framework and
market-friendly policies now called into question, the economy is heading into uncharted waters. To examine the country’s
outlook in further depth, we spoke to Alejandro Fernandez, chief economist at Gemines.
Alejandro Fernandez has been the chief economist at Gemines given a significant drop in imports is expected, especially of
since 1990. A graduate of the University of Chile and the capital goods, intermediate goods and durable consumer goods.
University of Rochester, he has also served as an adviser for Exports, meanwhile, should grow somewhat, but this will depend
Chile’s Ministry of the Economy and the World Bank, as well as on the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic.
an academic at the University of Chile.
FE: What will be the impact of the government’s USD 5.5
Nicolas J. Aguilar
Economist billion stimulus package? Do you expect the government to
deliver additional fiscal packages?
FE: What is your economic outlook for this year?
AF: There is no doubt that the expansionary fiscal policy will be
AF: The growth scenario is highly uncertain this year as a result of an important factor in preventing a further deterioration in the
the social and political crisis. Depending on how these variables economy, especially in the case of investment. Nevertheless, its
evolve, growth may be somewhat higher or somewhat lower than impact will be insufficient to give the economy a very significant
our baseline scenario of 1.2% (equal to 2019). The development boost.
of the coronavirus epidemic is also of great importance, due to
the impact it will have on our most important trading partner: I think there is no possibility of another reactivation package. Tax
China. We are already observing negative consequences of this accounts are very complicated. The deficit will be at least 4.5%
epidemic, with a decrease in the price of copper and problems of GDP. And the pressures of social spending are very strong and
with shipments of fruit and other goods to China. already explain a considerable part of the 8.5% real increase in
spending expected for 2020. The emphasis will be on pensions,
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % health and education.
6
“I think there is no possibility of

3
another reactivation package”
%
0
FE: What is your fiscal outlook going forward? Do you expect
the increase in government spending to be sustainable in
the medium- to long-term?
-3 AF: It is by no means sustainable. The great challenge is to

Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019
balance a gradual fiscal consolidation process with satisfying
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. social demands. There is little that the current government will be
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
able to do in this regard, which is very weak and has to respond
The effects of the internal crisis will significantly weigh on to urgent pressures to raise spending. The next government
domestic demand (including inventories), especially since it is hopefully has enough political strength to begin this consolidation
anticipated that investment in fixed capital will contract strongly process. It is known that there is much that can be done to make
(5% or more), while consumption will grow modestly. Only public public spending more efficient, but it is politically very unpopular.
spending will have a clear expansionary effect. On the other On the other hand, the space to raise the tax burden more is
hand, external demand should have a positive impact on growth, narrow, unless the middle class pays income tax, which it does
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 53

not do today. I anticipate a more or less permanent deficit interaction of these two factors will explain the evolution of the
scenario, hopefully stabilizing before the level of public debt exchange rate and could be enhanced, both in a positive and a
reaches 50% of GDP. negative sense, either by allowing a more pronounced decline or
a higher rise.
FE: What is your outlook for monetary policy this year?
Regarding financial stability and the evolution of the exchange
AF: This year the Central Bank of Chile will be largely inactive. rate, today there is no concern. What could complicate
With an expansive fiscal policy and rising inflation, it has no the financial system somewhat is a significant increase in
space to more expansive monetary policy. Nor does it seem delinquency. That said, there does not currently seem to be a
likely that it will need to make it less expansive, since the systemic risk, although it is certainly a matter to be observed
increase in inflation is explained by the devaluation of the peso nonetheless.
which, as has happened in the past, produces a transitory effect
on inflation. This is thanks to its great credibility, which allows FE: What will be the outcome of the constitutional process?
inflation expectations to be well anchored around the 3% target.
AF: In October, the constitutional convention will be chosen, which
“This year the Central Bank of will take nine months (which can be extended by another three
months) to produce a new constitutional text. Therefore, between
Chile will be largely inactive” July and October 2021 we will have a proposal. If some degree of
rationality prevails, the proposal should not demand fundamental
FE: Amid the recent depreciation of the peso and the Central changes to the most relevant aspects for the economy (property
Bank’s effort to stabilize it, what is your outlook for the rights, initiative of exclusive public expenditure of the executive
currency? Do you have concerns over financial stability and independence of the Central Bank). There may, however, be
ahead? changes in the catalog of people’s rights and how they should
be satisfied. The proposal must be approved by two-thirds of the
AF: The Central Bank’s concern is not with the level of the members of the convention.
exchange rate, but with the speed of the rise and with the intraday
volatility, which was extremely high at the end of October and Regardless of the specific content of the new constitution,
November. That explained the intervention in the FX market, the drafting process is going to be hectic and probably with
which was suspended when the Central Bank considered that it undemocratic deviations. That is to say, that they [protestors]
was no longer necessary, despite being scheduled, initially, until will try to use illegitimate means to pressure the members of the
May. convention and force their support for certain proposals.
Copper prices vs exchange rate FE: Are there risks of a populist turn in politics?
3.50 550
AF: Of course there is populism and, in fact, we have seen some
trends in that direction in recent months. That this becomes
3.00 650
more marked and permanent is a risk, although I hope it is not
a sustained trend. Irrespective, political challenges will be more
important than the technical ones compared to what has been
2.50 750
the norm over the last 30 years.
USD per Copper Lb. (left axis)
CLP per USD (right axis)

The complexity of the current situation is that, together with a
2.00 850
series of real social and economic problems (inequality, abuse,
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 insufficient meritocracy, etc.), we are facing a total crisis of the
Note: Cooper cash seller and settlement price and daily spot exchange rate of Chilean peso
fundamental institutions of the republic: all the powers of the
(CLP) against U.S dollar (USD). State (executive, legislative, judicial), the armed forces, police,
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME) and Refinitv.
churches and businessmen. There is no institution that appears
as a reference that guides citizens.
The evolution of the exchange rate depends basically on two
factors: the price of copper and the degree of internal political Most of the institutions in question are probably better than those
instability. Our base scenario is that the exchange rate will of many countries, but the perception of deterioration, corruption
average between CLP 780–790 per USD this year; however, if and lack of empathy with the ordinary citizen is total. Despite this,
the price of copper recovers as was happening until before the the country functions and, although worse than before, it has not
coronavirus, it could end the year under CLP 770 per USD. If the collapsed and that allows us to be reasonably optimistic about
political-social instability is very high, on the other hand, it could the future.
stay above CLP 800 per USD (CLP 810–820 per USD, or even
higher eventually) for a good part of the year. In short, the

Chile
Outlook deteriorates
Chile
• GDP likely contracted for the first time in almost three years in the fourth
quarter of 2019, as country-wide protests hampered the economy. On
average, the economic activity index slid in Q4, likely on stifled household
and capital spending, as hinted by record-low consumer and business
confidence. In addition, sinking merchandise imports in the quarter
further suggest that consumption metrics shriveled at year-end. Turning
to the first quarter of this year, economic conditions likely firmed up. A
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages de-escalation of social tensions, increased government spending and
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 less gloomy business sentiment in January hint that domestic conditions
Population (million): 18.4 19.4 20.0 improved. That said, merchandise exports slipped in January and likely
GDP (USD bn): 276 282 338
remained subdued in February, as the coronavirus epidemic in China
GDP growth (%): 2.3 1.7 2.9 hampers demand for copper and cherries.
Inflation (%): 2.8 2.8 3.0 • Expectations for this year have deteriorated since the wake of the
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.1 -2.2 protests in October. Capital investment is seen declining on uncertainties
stemming from the drafting of a new constitution, although modest
Nicolas J. Aguilar household spending, thanks to fiscal concessions, should partly offset the
Economist slowdown. Meanwhile, exports should rebound as easing trade tensions
support copper prices. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding
1.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts forecast, and 2.4% in 2021.
6 3.4
• Inflation jumped to 3.5% in January (December: 3.0%), marking a three-

4 2.9
and-a-half-year high, and nearing the upper bound of the Central Bank’s
2.0%–4.0% target band. Rapidly rising prices for food, and recreation
2 2.4
and culture, coupled with a strong pass-through effect, buoyed price
pressures in January. Going forward, inflation is expected to remain within
0 1.9
the target band. Our panel forecasts inflation to end 2020 at 3.0%, which
2020 2021
is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2021 at 2.9%.
-2 1.4

• On 29 January, the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.
rate at 1.75%, in line with market expectations, as it seeks to preserve
an expansionary stance to support the country’s stunted economy in
the aftermath of months of protests. Going forward, the majority of our
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
analysts expect further easing this year. The Consensus projects the
12 3.3 policy rate to end 2020 at 1.49% and 2021 at 1.90%.
Chile
Latin America 2020 2021
9 • The peso lost ground against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, as the
3.1
coronavirus epidemic hampered Chinese demand for Chilean exports. On
6
14 February, the CLP traded at 792 per USD, a 2.7% depreciation from
2.9 the same day last month. Going forward, most analysts expect the peso
3
will recover somewhat thanks to the country’s strong fundamentals and
rising copper prices. Our panelists project the peso to end 2020 at 753
0 2.7
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec CLP per USD and 2021 at 736 CLP per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity recovers in December

Economic Activity | variation in % In December, the IMACEC economic activity index grew 1.1% on an annual
8 basis, rebounding from November’s 3.3% contraction and beating analysts’
Year-on-year Annual average expectations.
4 December’s bounce reflected a 3.7% expansion in the mining economy,

%
contrasting a 5.1% dive in November. In addition, the non-mining economy
grew 0.8%, rebounding from a 3.1% fall a month prior on the back of upbeat
0
construction and manufacturing activity.
In month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity rose 3.5%

-4
Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 over the previous month in December, up from November’s 1.0% expansion.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.

Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)
On its December assessment, the Central Bank saw growth between 0.5%–
1.5% in 2020 and between 2.5%–3.5% in 2021. FocusEconomics panelists
see growth of 1.5% in 2020, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2021 they expect the economy to grow 2.4%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment edges up in January but remains

largely pessimistic
Consumer Confidence The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index rose to 30.4 points in January,
60 from 29.4 points in December. Nevertheless, the index remained deeply
entrenched below the critical 50-point threshold that separates pessimism
50
from optimism among Chilean consumers.
January’s print reflected slight improvements in consumers’ perception of the

40
current conditions of the country and a less gloomy assessment of their own
personal situation. Moreover, their willingness to purchase big-ticket household
30
items also improved at the start of the year. In contrast, their expectations for
the economy in the year ahead soured, as did their perception of the country’s
20
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 stability in next five years.
Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia).

Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private
values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Adimark GfK. consumption to grow 0.9% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects private consumption to
grow 2.5%.
OUTLOOK | Business sentiment rises in January

Business Confidence The business confidence index (IMCE), published by ICARE and the Adolfo
60
Ibáñez University, rose to 40.7 points in January from 32.5 points in December.
Nevertheless, the index remained below the crucial 50-point threshold that
separates pessimism from optimism among Chilean businesses.
50
In January, confidence in the mining sector rebounded markedly from a month

prior, likely thanks to easing U.S.–China trade tensions, and was the only
40 subcomponent of the index which reported optimism. Although sentiment in
the commerce and industrial sector improved somewhat, both remained stuck
in pessimistic territory. Moreover, sentiment in the construction sector turned
30
more pessimistic in January.
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza

Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project fixed investment
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. to decline 2.1% in 2020, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2021, they project it to grow 2.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to two-and-a-half-year high in

January
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Consumer prices rose 0.6% over the previous month in January, accelerating
1.0 4 from December’s 0.1% uptick. According to the Statistical Institute, January’s
result chiefly reflected higher prices for food and transport, which more than
offset lower prices for clothing. Similarly, core consumer prices rose 0.4%
0.5 3
(December: +0.1% month-on-month).
% %
Inflation logged 3.5% in January, up from December’s 3.0% and marking the
0.0 2
highest reading in 42 months. Thus, inflation neared the upper bound of the
Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target band. Meanwhile, core inflation was stable
at December’s 2.5%.
-0.5 1
Lastly, annual average inflation ticked down to 2.4%, from 2.5% in December.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
In its December assessment, the Central Bank projected inflation to end 2020
at 3.6% and 2021 at 3.0%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists
expect inflation to end 2020 at 3.0%, which is unchanged from last month’s
forecast, and at 2.9% in 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank stands pat in January

Monetary Policy Rate | in %. At its meeting ending 29 January, the board of the Central Bank of Chile
4.0 (BCCh) unanimously decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 1.75%, as
it seeks to preserve an expansionary stance to support the country’s stunted
3.5
economy in the aftermath of months of protests. Most market analysts had
expected the Bank to stand pat.
3.0
2.5 The decision reflected the need to balance an uncertain inflationary backdrop
with wavering economic activity. Although inflation reached the 3.0% target
2.0
in December, price pressures were less pronounced than what the Bank had
expected in its previous December meeting. While the sharp depreciation of
1.5
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 the peso since October has put upward pressure on prices, faltering household
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %. consumption limited the upturn.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)
In the forward-looking guidance, the Bank maintained its wait-and-see

approach. This was line with the scenario presented in the previous meeting
in December, when it was noted that the key policy rate is likely to remain
unchanged for the next few months. This scenario projected inflation to hover
above the 3.0% target this year as prolonged currency weakness will stoke
prices. Moreover, heightened uncertainties stemming from protracted protests
and the proposed rewriting of the constitution are likely to persist and pose
upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Copper Price | USD per Lb. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 31 March.
3.5
The majority of our analysts project further easing this year, while the rest see
3.0
the Central Bank standing pat. As is stands, the current Consensus is for the
policy rate to end 2020 at 1.49% and 2021 at 1.90%.
2.5
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Coronavirus hits copper prices in January

2.0 Copper prices fell in January as the escalation of the coronavirus outbreak
hindered Chinese manufacturing activity. On average, prices for the red metal
1.5 logged USD 2.74 per pound (equivalent to USD 6,036 per ton), down from
Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
December’s average price of USD 2.76 per pound (equivalent to USD 6,088
Note: Cash seller and settlement price.
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
per ton). In contrast, prices were 1.6% higher than in the same month of 2019.

January’s copper price downturn reflected concerns over a fall in demand for
the red metal in the near-term amid slower economic activity in China—the
world’s largest consumer of the metal. While the celebrations of the Chinese
New Year often imply a deceleration in industrial activity in January, due to
fewer working days, the spread of coronavirus throughout major cities of
the country stoked investors’ fears of a sharper- and longer-than-expected
slowdown.
In Chile, Anglo American reported a fall in copper output at its Los Bronces
mine in the fourth quarter of last year due to drought conditions, which appear
to be linked to a broader desertification process in the center regions of the
country. According to our analysts, copper prices are seen fairly stable this
year. Supply-side constraints should prop up prices, as output in top producer
Chile receded in the back-end of 2019, while smelters around the world have
announced cuts in output this year. The U.S.-China trade conflict poses a
downside risk to prices.
Our panelists expect copper prices to end 2020 at USD 2.76 per pound and
2021 at USD 2.87 per pound.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 246 250 279 298 282 272 293 315 337 361
GDP (CLP bn) 159,553 169,470 180,211 191,249 198,283 207,362 218,181 230,445 244,077 259,232
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.5 1.8 2.9 4.7 1.0 -0.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 7.2 4.4 2.2 2.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -0.3 -1.3 -2.7 4.7 2.8 -2.1 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.7 0.5 -1.1 5.0 -1.5 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.1 0.9 4.7 7.6 -2.5 -2.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 0.6 0.2 -1.0 2.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.4 3.1 4.6 4.0 -1.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.75 1.75 1.49 1.90 2.61 3.29 3.97
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 709 670 615 694 752 753 736 726 721 716
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 655 676 649 642 703 763 744 731 723 719
External Sector
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -14.6 -4.7 10.1 15.1 -7.5 -3.7 4.0 5.8 6.1 6.4
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 2.50 2.21 2.80 2.96 2.73 2.76 2.87 2.86 2.77 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.6 3.6 1.5 1.9 3.3 -2.0 0.4 0.6 0.9 4.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.7 0.7 -3.6 2.2 1.2 1.1 0.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.4 4.5 2.6 1.9 2.4 -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 -0.2 3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.4 3.0 -2.1 -0.4 0.0 0.5 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.9 5.6 3.2 5.3 5.9 -3.7 -1.9 -3.1 -3.5 0.5
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.4 3.0 1.6 -1.5 2.5 0.5 - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.5 3.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 -7.7 - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 2.50 2.75 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.75 1.72 1.64 1.50 1.49
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) 1.9 2.2 1.7 3.4 3.6 3.0 -3.4 -3.3 1.1 -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -1.5 2.2 -5.3 6.3 -1.2 2.8 -5.7 3.2 4.2 -
Unemployment (rolling quarters, % act. pop.) 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 43.2 40.7 37.8 40.3 39.4 38.6 36.7 28.3 29.4 30.4
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 52.1 50.6 50.2 50.4 51.0 50.7 51.5 36.6 32.5 40.7
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 2.92 2.73 2.67 2.69 2.59 2.61 2.61 2.66 2.76 2.74
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

AGPV 2.5 2.6
Banchile Inversiones 1.3 2.1
4 BCI 1.0 2.5
4 BICE Inversiones 1.4 2.0
BTG Pactual 1.0 1.8
2 Capital Economics 1.5 2.5
0 CorpResearch 1.2 2.0
0 Credicorp Capital 1.2 2.0
Chile Chile DekaBank 2.7 2.8
Latin America Latin America DuckerFrontier 2.1 2.6
World World EIU 1.0 2.5
-4 -2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Euromonitor Int. 0.9 2.1
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fynsa 2.0 -
Gemines 1.2 2.2
5 5 Goldman Sachs 1.0 3.0
HSBC 1.3 2.5
4 4 Inversiones Security 1.7 -
JPMorgan 0.9 2.5
3 3
Julius Baer 1.5 1.5
Maximum Maximum Pezco Economics 1.4 2.0
1 1
Consensus Consensus Santander 1.0 2.5
Minimum Minimum Scotiabank 1.4 3.0
0 0 Société Générale 1.9 2.8
UBS 0.5 2.5
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 0.5 1.5
50%
Maximum 2.8 3.1
Median 1.4 2.5
40% Consensus 1.5 2.4
History
30% 30 days ago 1.7 2.5
60 days ago 2.2 2.8
20%
90 days ago 2.8 3.1
Central Bank (Dec. 2019) 0.5-1.5 2.5-3.5
10%
IMF (Jan. 2020) 0.9 2.7
CAF (Feb. 2020) 1.1 2.5
0%
<0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 >3.5
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).


12
Banchile Inversiones 0.2 2.5 -3.4 2.6 9
BCI 0.7 2.6 -3.5 2.4
BICE Inversiones 1.5 2.1 -6.3 -1.6 6
BTG Pactual 0.5 1.2 -5.5 -1.7
3
CorpResearch 1.4 2.3 0.0 1.8
Credicorp Capital -0.2 - -4.5 - 0
DuckerFrontier 1.9 2.9 - - Chile
EIU 1.3 2.7 -2.8 2.0 Latin America

-3
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.8 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions 2.0 3.0 -2.5 3.2
Fynsa 1.9 - - -
Gemines 0.4 2.5 -5.0 3.0 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs 0.0 1.9 -4.4 3.9
4.0
HSBC -2.3 3.0 -3.8 4.0
Inversiones Security 1.8 - -2.0 -
3.2
Pezco Economics - - -2.1 1.4
Santander 0.9 1.9 -4.0 2.1
2.4
Scotiabank 0.8 3.3 4.0 3.0
UBS 0.3 3.1 -5.4 2.0
1.6
Summary
Minimum -2.3 1.2 -6.3 -1.7 2020 2021
Maximum 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.2
0.8
Median 0.9 2.7 -3.1 2.2 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Consensus 0.9 2.5 -2.1 2.1
History
30 days ago 1.2 2.6 -1.3 2.3 8 | Investment | variation in %
60 days ago 2.1 2.8 1.3 3.4
90 days ago 3.0 3.1 3.9 4.3 30
Chile
Latin America
15
-15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

0
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-3
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
11
Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP
Banchile Inversiones - - - - 31.4 33.5
9
BCI 10.0 9.2 -4.5 -3.5 - -
BICE Inversiones 8.9 9.1 - - - -
BTG Pactual 8.2 8.0 -4.8 -4.1 30.2 33.8
Capital Economics 8.0 7.0 -4.5 -4.0 32.0 34.0
7
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.5 7.5 -4.4 -3.4 29.7 30.6
CorpResearch - - -4.5 -3.2 - -
Credicorp Capital 10.0 - -4.5 - 33.0 -
Chile DekaBank - - -4.5 -3.9 - -
Latin America DuckerFrontier 7.1 6.9 - - - -
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EIU 6.9 6.8 -4.5 -3.9 31.8 35.3
Euromonitor Int. 7.4 7.2 -2.1 - - -
Fitch Solutions - - -4.0 -4.1 - -
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP Gemines 7.7 7.3 -4.7 -4.3 29.9 32.8
Goldman Sachs - - -4.4 -3.0 32.8 35.7
8
HSBC - - -4.5 -3.7 - -
Inversiones Security 9.2 - -4.4 - 31.4 -
Itaú Unibanco 8.5 8.0 -4.4 -3.9 - -
4
JPMorgan - - -4.4 -4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 7.5 7.2 -2.7 -1.6 29.5 29.2
Oxford Economics 8.1 6.9 -3.8 -3.3 33.8 35.5
0
Pezco Economics - - -2.4 -2.6 28.7 28.9
Santander 8.2 8.0 -4.4 -4.2 31.6 34.8
Scotiabank 8.0 7.5 - - - -
-4
Société Générale 7.0 6.7 -1.9 -1.8 27.0 27.4
Chile
UBS 9.6 9.3 -4.0 -3.3 31.3 33.0
Latin America
Summary
-8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Minimum 6.9 6.7 -4.8 -4.3 27.0 27.4
Maximum 10.0 9.3 -1.9 -1.6 33.8 35.7
Median 8.2 7.4 -4.4 -3.7 31.4 33.5
12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts Consensus 8.3 7.7 -4.0 -3.5 30.9 32.7
History
-1 30 days ago 7.9 7.3 -3.6 -3.2 30.1 32.0
60 days ago 7.6 7.1 -2.5 -2.3 29.2 30.1
90 days ago 6.9 6.7 -1.9 -1.7 27.9 28.2
-2
-3
-4
2020 2021
-5
13 | Public Debt | % of GDP
40
30
20
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
10
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and DIPRES (Dirección
de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
0 11 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.


10
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop)
AGPV 2.8 2.7 - -
Banchile Inversiones 3.2 3.0 - - 5
BCI 3.2 3.0 - -
BTG Pactual 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.0 0
CorpResearch 3.0 3.0 - -
Credicorp Capital 3.3 2.8 3.4 - Chile
DekaBank - - 2.2 2.5 Latin America
DuckerFrontier - - 2.9 3.2 -5
EIU 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fynsa 2.9 - - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
Gemines 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.8
12
Chile
HSBC 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0
Inversiones Security 3.0 - 3.0 - Latin America
9
JPMorgan 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2
6
Pezco Economics 2.7 2.8 - - 3
Santander 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.6

Scotiabank 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.0
Société Générale - - 2.7 2.9 0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Standard Chartered - - 3.6 2.5
UBS 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.9
Summary 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Minimum 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.0
Maximum 3.9 3.1 3.9 3.2 4.0
Median 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9
Consensus 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8
3.5
History
30 days ago 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9
60 days ago 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0
90 days ago 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9
2.5
Central Bank (Dec. 2019) 3.6 3.0 3.9 3.1
IMF (Oct. 2019) 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.0
CAF (Feb. 2020) 4.0 3.0 - - 2.0 Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
1.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Notes and sources

2.5
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus 2.0 Maximum
Forecast. Consensus
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Minimum
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1.5
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

Chile Chile
Banchile Inversiones 1.75 1.50
BCI 1.25 1.25
12 12 BICE Inversiones 1.00 1.25
BTG Pactual 1.75 1.75
8 8 Citigroup Global Mkts 1.75 2.25
CorpResearch 1.75 2.00
Credicorp Capital 1.50 1.50
4 4 Fitch Solutions 1.75 2.25
Gemines 1.75 2.50
0 0 HSBC 1.50 1.75
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Inversiones Security 1.75 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 1.75 -
5 5 Pezco Economics 1.50 2.75
Santander 1.75 1.75
Scotiabank 1.00 2.00
4 4 Société Générale 1.00 -
UBS 1.75 2.00
3 3 Summary
Minimum 1.00 1.25
Maximum 1.75 2.75
2 2 Median 1.63 2.00
Consensus 1.49 1.90
1
Maximum
1 Maximum History
Consensus Consensus 30 days ago 1.45 1.94
Minimum Minimum
60 days ago 1.40 2.07
0 0 90 days ago 1.58 2.15
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution
60%
40%
20%
0%
<0.0 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 >3.5
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
AGPV 780 800
Banchile Inversiones 750 720
700 750 BCI 750 720
BICE Inversiones 750 720
BTG Pactual 775 768
600 700 Capital Economics 730 685
Citigroup Global Mkts 743 740
CorpResearch 750 720
500 650 Credicorp Capital 750 -
EIU 685 681
Fitch Solutions 720 696
400 600 Gemines 770 750
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Goldman Sachs 750 700
HSBC 780 -
25 | CLP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | CLP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Inversiones Security 750 -
Itaú Unibanco 780 770
850 850
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 800 -
Consensus Consensus Moody's Analytics 722 721
Minimum Minimum Oxford Economics 777 774
Pezco Economics 732 749
750 750
Santander 770 780
Scotiabank 700 680
Standard Chartered 775 775
UBS 780 770
650 650
Summary
Minimum 685 680
Maximum 800 800
Median 750 731
550 550 Consensus 753 736
History
30 days ago 749 733
27 | CLP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution 60 days ago 749 721
80% 90 days ago 702 679
60%
40%
20%
0%
<600 645 690 735 780 825 870 915 >915
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecast during the last 18 months.


% of GDP USD bn Chile
AGPV - - 5.0 5.0 4
BCI -0.2 -1.0 - -
BICE Inversiones -2.6 -1.2 - -
BTG Pactual -0.7 -0.4 11.5 12.8 0
Capital Economics -2.5 -3.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.5 -1.6 - -
CorpResearch -1.6 -1.8 7.0 6.0
-4
Credicorp Capital -0.5 - 9.8 -
DekaBank -2.9 -3.1 - -
EIU -2.9 -3.1 6.2 8.6
-8
Euromonitor Int. -3.0 -3.0 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gemines -2.0 -2.6 7.1 6.3
Goldman Sachs 0.4 0.5 6.2 5.8 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
HSBC 0.8 -1.3 13.3 8.4
Inversiones Security -1.3 - 2.8 - -1.0
Itaú Unibanco -0.4 -0.6 - - 2020 2021
JPMorgan -0.9 -0.6 12.1 13.1
Moody's Analytics -3.2 -2.6 - - -1.6
Oxford Economics -2.4 -1.8 6.5 7.8
Santander -1.6 -1.0 10.3 12.0
Scotiabank -3.5 -1.7 - - -2.2
Standard Chartered -3.0 -2.5 - -
UBS -1.1 -0.8 11.0 12.4 -2.8
Summary
Minimum -3.5 -3.1 2.8 5.0
Maximum 0.8 0.5 13.3 13.1 -3.4
Median -1.6 -1.7 8.4 8.5 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Consensus -1.7 -1.7 8.6 8.9

History
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
30 days ago -2.0 -2.0 7.1 7.3
60 days ago -2.8 -2.6 4.9 5.7 120
Trade Balance
90 days ago -3.1 -2.7 4.2 4.9 Exports
Imports
90
60
30
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
10
6
Notes and sources
4
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
2020 2021
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 73.0 74.0 68.0 69.0
BTG Pactual 72.5 75.6 61.0 62.8 30
CorpResearch 70.0 72.5 63.0 66.5
Credicorp Capital 70.5 - 60.7 -
EIU 71.8 75.5 65.5 67.0
Euromonitor Int. 72.4 75.0 - - 0
Gemines 69.3 73.5 62.2 67.2
Goldman Sachs 73.4 75.6 67.2 69.8
HSBC 76.0 77.5 62.7 69.1 -30
Inversiones Security 72.8 - 69.9 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 72.9 75.1 60.8 62.0

Santander 71.5 74.0 61.2 62.0 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 70.3 74.4 59.3 62.0
Summary 94
Minimum 67.5 71.9 59.3 62.0
Maximum 76.0 77.5 69.9 69.8
Median 71.8 74.4 61.7 66.1 88
Consensus 71.7 74.5 63.1 65.6

History
30 days ago 71.8 75.7 64.7 68.4 82
60 days ago 72.1 76.5 67.3 70.7
90 days ago 73.7 77.3 69.4 72.4
76
2020 2021
70
40
20
-20
Chile
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
82
77
72
Notes and sources
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 41.0 42.0 - - 10
Credicorp Capital 36.0 - - -
EIU 33.8 33.2 206 215 8
Fitch Solutions 41.8 43.0 - -
Gemines 38.0 38.0 210 223 6
Goldman Sachs 31.9 31.9 212 226
HSBC 38.9 38.9 193 197
Inversiones Security 36.0 - 190 - 4
Itaú Unibanco 30.0 30.0 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 29.7 29.7 - -
Oxford Economics 40.1 43.7 203 208
UBS 32.8 38.1 192 203 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Summary
Minimum 29.7 29.7 183 197 47
Maximum 42.4 45.0 212 226

Median 36.0 38.1 198 208
Consensus 36.3 37.5 199 211 44
History
30 days ago 37.4 38.2 200 211
60 days ago 40.1 40.9 202 215 41
90 days ago 40.3 41.0 199 210
38
2020 2021
35
90
Chile
Latin America
70
50
30
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
220
210
Notes and sources

200
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021

Fact Sheet
General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Chile Chile
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m) 3.1% 5.7%
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102 Other
Population (million, 2018 est.): 18.8 Other 18.0%
25.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.8 Brazil
35.0%
Colombia
6.3% Brazil
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 79.1 36.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 3.1 Argentina Argentina
7.5% 10.4%
Language: Spanish
8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico Mexico
20.9% 23.4%
Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 17.7
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 127 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80 80
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 413 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.1
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 73.2 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 12.5

Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.5 Consumption
Transportation (2015) 0 0
Airports: 481
Roadways (km): 77,764 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data
10.1% U.S.A.
13.6%
Other

8.8%
U.S.A.
Brazil 21.1%
President: Sebastián Piñera LatAm
8.9%
Japan
Last elections: 17 December 2017 15.5% 9.4%

Next elections: 2021
Exports Other
Imports
Central Bank President: Mario Marcel Cullell
Korea EU-27
LatAm
15.2% EU-27
5.9% 12.3% 13.9%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
China 8.7%
China 23.3%

Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A Stable
Other
Other Food 2.0%
Manufact.
Products 9.6%
Food 14.6%
25.0% Mineral
• Market oriented policy firmly • High dependence on copper Fuels
13.9%
anchored exports
• Structurally sound and prudent • Relatively small domestic Agric. Exports
Imports
fiscal policy market Raw Mat.
6.3%
• Free trade agreements with
Manufact.
major economic areas Ores & Products
Metals 74.5%
• Low import tariffs have created 53.2%
competitive industry .

FOCUSECONOMICS Colombia February 2020
Colombia
Outlook stable
Colombia
• According to preliminary GDP data, economic growth moderated

marginally in the fourth quarter of 2019 amid somewhat softer domestic
demand dynamics, after having expanded at the fastest pace in over four
years in Q3. That said, the economy gained momentum when looking at
2019 as a whole: Low interest rates, higher disposable incomes and higher
remittance inflows fueled household consumption, while upbeat business
confidence and VAT deductions on capital good purchases supported
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages fixed investment. In other news, on 3 February the government updated
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
its Financing Plan for 2020. The plan maintains a narrower fiscal deficit
Population (million): 49.3 50.9 52.3 target of 2.2% of GDP, with tax revenue expected to remain unchanged
GDP (USD bn): 309 342 409
from 2019 at 14.3% of GDP, despite lower corporate taxes owing to the
GDP growth (%): 2.0 3.2 3.4 recently approved tax reform.
Inflation (%): 5.0 3.4 3.0 • Economic growth should remain healthy this year, underpinned by fixed
Current Account (% of GDP): -3.8 -4.3 -3.5 investment growth—amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal exemptions—
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.7 42.1 41.0
and still-solid private consumption growth. Key risks to the outlook include
Hanna Andersson a fairly elevated external debt burden, as well as social unrest and
Economist political tensions, which could hurt consumer and investor confidence.
FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 3.2% in 2020, which is
unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% again in 2021.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts • Inflation inched down to 3.6% in January from 3.8% in December, thus
3.5 3.5 moving closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 3.0%
2020 2021
plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Looking ahead, inflation is seen
2.5
3.4
moderating somewhat amid tighter monetary policy. FocusEconomics
panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 3.3% and at 3.2% in 2021.
3.3
1.5
3.2
• Colombia’s Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at
4.25% at its latest Board of Directors meeting on 31 January amid upbeat
0.5 3.1 domestic growth dynamics and within-target inflation. Going forward,

small majority of panelists see the Bank hiking the rate in 2020. The panel
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. forecasts the policy rate to end 2020 at 4.28% and 2021 at 4.60%.
• The Colombian peso weakened against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks
amid worries of a slowdown in China and slumping oil prices. On 14
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts February, the COP ended the day at 3,392 per USD, a 3.0% month-on-
12 3.4 month depreciation. Looking ahead, the peso is seen losing ground this
Colombia
Latin America
2020 2021
year as the country’s external position remains fragile. FocusEconomics
9 3.3
analysts see the peso ending 2020 at 3,323 per USD and 2021 at 3,330
per USD.
6 3.2
3 3.1

REAL SECTOR | Growth softens slightly in Q4 but remains upbeat

According to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (DANE)
on 14 February, the economy lost some traction in the final quarter of 2019 but
concluded a robust year overall nonetheless. GDP grew 3.4% year-on-year in
Q4, marginally down from Q3’s upwardly revised 3.5% expansion (previously
reported: +3.3% year-on-year). Taking the year as a whole, however, the
economy accelerated to 3.3% from 2.5% in 2018.
Domestic demand lost some steam in the fourth quarter, constrained by weaker
fixed investment and household spending growth, although remained firm
overall. Fixed investment growth decelerated to 2.5% in Q4 after expanding
a revised 5.9% in Q3 (previously reported: +5.1% yoy), weighed on by sliding
residential investment. In addition, private consumption growth eased to 4.4%
from Q3’s 4.9% expansion, amid slightly more downbeat consumer sentiment,
while public expenditure growth moderated to 4.3% from a revised 4.7% in Q3
(previously reported: +3.5% yoy).
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

On the external front, export growth slowed to 0.3% from Q3’s revised 2.0%
expansion (previously reported: +1.9% yoy), dragged on by weak global
4
demand. Meanwhile, import growth slumped to 5.6% from a revised 11.5%
in the prior quarter (previously reported: +10.0% yoy). Taken together, the
3
external sector weighed less severely on growth in Q4 than in the previous
quarter.
2
%
In quarter-on-quarter terms, economic growth ticked down to 0.5% in the
1 fourth quarter after accelerating 0.6% in Q3.
0 Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to remain solid this year,

Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020
powered by fixed investment growth amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
exemptions, and still-healthy private consumption. However, social unrest and
Consensus Forecast. political tensions, which could hurt consumer and investor confidence, and a
fairly high external debt burden pose downside risks to the outlook.
Daniela Velandia and Camilo Duran, analysts at Credicorp, noted:
“The results of economic activity in 4Q19 are a sample of what could be

observed in 2020. Specifically, we expect a deceleration of domestic demand
this year as the cycle of private consumption would have peaked in 2019,
public spending should moderate further amid the first year of regional
administrations and the fiscal constraints of the central government, and
investment should moderate its growth due to the fading of the effects of the
tax reform (particularly those related to capital goods purchases). However,
total GDP growth should maintain a similar pace than in 2019 due to the
deceleration of imports, in line with a slowing domestic demand.”
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP

will expand 3.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
2021, panelists project that GDP will also grow 3.2%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth rebounds in December

Industrial production from the manufacturing sector rose 3.2% on an annual
basis in December, contrasting November’s revised 1.8% fall (previously
reported: -1.5% year-on-year) and marking the highest reading since July
according to the Statistical Institute (DANE).

Industrial Production | variation in % A breakdown by industrial activity reveals that expansions in the manufacture
15 5
of chemical products; the manufacture of soap and detergents, cleaning and
polishing preparations, perfumes and toilet preparations; and the manufacture
of food products largely drove December’s upturn.
10 3
Annual average growth in industrial production inched up to 1.5% in December

5 2
from 1.2% in November.
% %
0 0
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see industrial production
Year-on-year (left scale) expanding 2.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
Annual average variation (right scale)
-5 -2 2021, the panel projects industrial production to rise 3.0%.
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in %.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI climbs in January
calculations.
Business conditions in Colombia’s manufacturing sector started the new year in
full swing, with the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index climbing to 53.4 in January from 52.4 in December. Thus, it
marked the best reading in a year and a half, and the seventh consecutive
month that the index remained above the critical 50-threshold which indicates
Purchasing Managers’ Index an improvement in the health of the sector.
55.0
January’s print largely reflected buoyant growth in new work intakes, which
rose at the fastest clip since August 2018 amid more upbeat demand and
52.5
overall improved conditions in the economy. As a result, production increased
at the quickest pace in 17 months, while firms increased their staffing levels
50.0
for the seventh month straight to cope with added workloads. Meanwhile,
business confidence rose to its highest level in six months, bolstered by
47.5
prospects of investment and export opportunities as well as resilient demand
dynamics in the year ahead. On the price front, input cost inflation softened
45.0 to a ten-month low in January, while output charge inflation also moderated.
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate

an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project fixed investment to expand
deterioration.
Source: IHS Markit and Davivienda.
3.9% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, panelists see fixed investment growing 3.6%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ticks down in January

Consumer prices rose 0.42% over the previous month in January, accelerating
from December’s 0.26% increase. January’s reading largely reflected higher
Inflation | Consumer Price Index prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as for transport.
0.9 4.4
Inflation ticked down to 3.6% in January from December’s 3.8%. Thus, it
0.6 4.0
edged closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 3.0% plus
or minus 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, annual average inflation came in
at 3.6% in January, up from December’s 3.5%.
0.3 3.6
% %
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that
0.0 3.2
inflation will end 2020 at 3.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, the panel sees inflation ending the year at 3.2%.
-0.3 2.8
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank stays put at its first meeting of the
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). year
Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) left the benchmark interest rate unchanged
at 4.25% at its latest Board of Directors meeting on 31 January. The decision
was unanimous and in line with market expectations. The rate has thus
remained at the same level since 27 April 2018 when it was cut by 25 basis
points.

Monetary Policy Rate | in % The decision to hold rates came amid upbeat domestic growth dynamics and
8.0 within-target inflation. In December, inflation inched down to 3.8% (November:
3.9%) and is expected to continue to converge to the Bank’s target of 3.0% on
6.8
the gradual fading effects of supply shocks. Meanwhile, the Bank maintained
its growth projections for 2019 and 2020 at 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
%
5.5
Looking ahead, the Bank stated it will closely monitor future inflation and
economic activity. Moreover, it will be alert to developments related to the
4.3
balance of payments and the external context, in particular to the economic
effects of the coronavirus outbreak. Thus, monetary policy “will continue to
3.0
Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
depend on the new information available”.
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.

Source: Colombia Central Bank (BanRep). The next monetary policy meeting will be held on 27 March.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project the

policy rate to end 2020 at 4.28%, which is down 0.05 percentage points from
last month’s forecast, and 2021 at 4.60%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports fall in the final month of 2019

Exports | variation in % Exports fell 1.9% in December over the same month a year earlier, following
44 the 13.6% year-on-year drop in November. December’s downturn largely
reflected a marked drop in exports of fuels and products of extractive industries.
22 In November—the latest month for which data is available—imports rose

%
6.3% over the same month of 2018, which contrasted the 16.1% contraction
recorded in October. November’s expansion largely reflected rising purchases
0 of fuels and products of extractive industries.
Year-on-year
Annual average Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened to USD 1.7 billion in November from the
-22
926 million shortfall in the same month of 2018.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in % of export growth.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). In 2020, merchandise exports are forecast to grow 2.7% and imports 4.0%,
widening the trade deficit to USD 9.2 billion. In 2021, merchandise exports
are seen rising 5.4% and imports 5.2%, widening the trade deficit to USD 9.6
billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 293 283 312 333 324 339 362 385 409 435
GDP (COP tn) 805 864 920 986 1,062 1,132 1,205 1,282 1,365 1,453
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.8 -2.9 1.9 1.6 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.7 -0.2 2.6 0.9 3.1 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.0 4.1 -0.5 3.8 1.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 6.4 2.0 -0.1 5.4 8.1 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.5 6.9 7.1 5.0 8.7 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 5.2 6.2 4.9 3.2 3.4 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.25 4.25 4.28 4.60 4.70 4.76 4.83
90-day DTF (%, eop) 5.24 6.92 5.28 4.54 4.52 4.49 4.64 4.72 4.73 4.74
Stock Market (ann. var. of IGBC %) -26.5 18.2 13.6 -2.9 19.3 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,175 3,002 2,985 3,248 3,287 3,323 3,330 3,337 3,339 3,342
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,749 3,052 2,952 2,958 3,283 3,341 3,326 3,333 3,338 3,341
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -13.5 -9.2 -4.5 -5.1 -8.3 -9.2 -9.6 -9.8 -9.4 -8.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -15.4 -16.9 2.3 12.1 4.7 4.0 5.2 6.5 6.6 6.8
External Debt (USD bn) 112 120 125 132 138 143 150 159 168 176
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.8 4.4 2.9 0.4 1.5 1.1 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.0
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.27 4.27 4.28
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.53 4.54 4.55 4.52 4.48 4.52 4.47 4.48 4.48 4.49
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,961 3,169 3,136 3,242 3,344 3,404 3,326 3,357 3,348 3,335
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.4 -2.8 -2.9 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.5 11.2 10.3 11.5 10.4 10.6 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12.5 13.3 12.3 12.9 13.1 13.5 - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.3 3.4 -0.9 3.7 0.3 0.6 2.1 -1.8 3.2 -
Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.8 49.2 51.5 50.3 50.9 51.1 52.9 52.4 53.4
Unemployment (% of active population) 10.3 10.5 9.4 10.7 10.8 10.2 9.8 9.3 9.5 -
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -9.6 -5.0 -6.3 -5.1 -11.8 -10.7 -9.8 -14.4 -9.5 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.0 0.7 -8.7 -10.4 -11.4 -12.7 -11.9 -13.6 -1.9 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

Colombia AGPV 3.3 3.4
Latin America
World
ANIF 3.3 3.5
6 3
Banco Davivienda 3.2 -
Banco de Bogotá 3.3 3.5
4 2 Bancolombia 3.2 3.3
1
2
BTG Pactual 3.0 3.2
CABI 2.8 -
0 0 Capital Economics 2.8 2.5
Colombia
Latin America Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 3.3
World
-2 -1 Corficolombiana 3.1 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Credicorp Capital 3.2 3.3
DekaBank 3.0 3.3
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts DuckerFrontier 3.0 3.1
Ecoanalítica 3.4 3.4
5 5 EIU 3.0 3.3
Fedesarrollo 3.5 3.7
HSBC 3.0 2.8
3 3 Itaú Unibanco 3.1 3.0
JPMorgan 3.0 3.1
Julius Baer 3.5 2.5
2 2 Kiel Institute 3.2 3.5
Maximum Maximum Moody's Analytics 3.3 3.5
Consensus Consensus Oxford Economics 3.2 3.3
Minimum Minimum
1 1
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Polinomics 3.2 3.0
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3.4 -
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution S&P Global 3.2 3.3
Scotiabank 3.6 3.6
80% Société Générale 2.3 2.8
UBS 2.9 3.1
60% Ultraserfinco 3.5 3.7
Summary
Minimum 2.3 2.5
40% Maximum 3.7 3.7
Median 3.2 3.3
Consensus 3.2 3.2
20% History
30 days ago 3.2 3.2
60 days ago 3.2 3.2
0%
90 days ago 3.1 3.3
<1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 >5.0 Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (Feb. 2020) 3.3 3.3
CAF (Jan. 2020) 3.3 3.4
World Bank (Jan. 2020) 3.6 3.9
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


8
ANIF 3.8 - 3.2 - 6
Banco Davivienda 4.0 - - -

Bancolombia 4.2 - 5.1 - 4
BBVA Research 4.3 4.0 5.0 4.7 2
BTG Pactual 3.8 4.3 3.5 4.1
CABI 3.2 - 4.0 -
Capital Economics 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 0
Colombia
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.2 3.6 - - Latin America
Corficolombiana 3.9 - 4.6 - -2
Credicorp Capital 3.3 - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ecoanalítica 3.1 2.8 - -
EIU 3.2 3.1 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
3.7
Fedesarrollo 4.5 4.5 - -
HSBC 3.1 3.4 - -
3.5
S&P Global 3.8 3.5 - -
3.3
UBS 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.5
Summary
Minimum 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2020 2021
Maximum 4.5 4.5 5.1 4.7
3.1
Median 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5
Consensus 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.6
History
30 days ago 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 8 | Investment | variation in %
60 days ago 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.6
90 days ago 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.5 20
Colombia
Latin America
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4.5
4.2
3.9
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo 3.6
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. 3.3
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

15 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

Colombia variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
10
ANIF - - 10.0 - -2.3 -
Banco Davivienda 3.9 - - - -2.2 -
5 Banco de Bogotá - - 10.9 10.7 -2.2 -1.8
Bancolombia 3.0 - 10.9 10.9 -2.5 -2.4
0
BBVA Research 3.7 - - - -2.2 -1.8
BTG Pactual - - 10.3 10.1 -2.5 -2.4
CABI - - - - -2.5 -
-5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 10.3 9.9 - -
-10 Corficolombiana - - - - -2.6 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Credicorp Capital - - 10.1 - -1.5 -
DekaBank - - - - -2.4 -2.2
DuckerFrontier 2.8 3.3 10.0 9.7 - -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Ecoanalítica - - 9.8 9.6 -2.3 -2.1
EIU 2.2 3.4 10.8 10.3 -2.4 -2.2
3.5
Euromonitor Int. 1.4 1.9 10.3 9.9 - -
Fedesarrollo - - - - -2.8 -3.4
Fitch Solutions - - - - -2.3 -2.2
3.3 Goldman Sachs - - 10.4 10.1 -2.2 -1.8
HSBC 3.6 3.7 - - -2.5 -2.3
Itaú Unibanco - - 10.0 9.6 -2.2 -2.0
3.1 JPMorgan - - - - -2.2 -2.0
Moody's Analytics 3.0 3.6 10.6 10.2 - -
Oxford Economics 3.2 3.3 10.2 8.9 -2.3 -1.9
2.9 Pezco Economics - - - - -2.7 -3.0
S&P Global - - 10.1 9.1 - -
2020 2021
Société Générale - - 10.5 10.6 -2.7 -2.7
2.7 UBS 1.5 2.0 9.7 9.5 -2.4 -2.2
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Ultraserfinco - - 11.2 - -2.0 -1.8
Summary
Minimum 1.4 1.9 9.7 8.9 -2.8 -3.4
Maximum 3.9 3.7 11.2 10.9 -1.5 -1.5
25 Median 3.0 3.3 10.3 10.0 -2.3 -2.2
Colombia Consensus 2.8 3.0 10.3 9.9 -2.3 -2.2
Latin America History
20 30 days ago 2.8 3.1 10.3 9.9 -2.2 -2.1
60 days ago 2.9 3.3 10.1 9.8 -2.4 -2.2
90 days ago 2.9 3.3 9.9 9.6 -2.4 -2.2
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Colombia
Latin America
-2
Notes and sources
-4 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística)
and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.
13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 8
AGPV 3.4 3.5 - -
ANIF 3.4 - - -
Banco Davivienda 3.3 - 3.6 - 6
Banco de Bogotá 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.0

Bancolombia 3.5 3.6 - - 4
2
BTG Pactual 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.0
Colombia
CABI 3.5 - - - Latin America
Capital Economics - - 3.8 3.3 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.1
Corficolombiana 3.4 - - -
Credicorp Capital 3.4 3.1 3.5 - 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
DekaBank - - 3.3 2.5
15
Ecoanalítica 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.1 Colombia
EIU 3.0 2.3 3.3 2.5 Latin America
10
Fedesarrollo 3.4 3.3 - -
HSBC 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.5
5
JPMorgan 3.3 3.4 3.3 -
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Polinomics 3.3 3.2 - -
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3.4 3.4 - -
S&P Global 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 5 Maximum
Scotiabank 3.3 3.1 - - Consensus
Société Générale - - 3.4 3.4 Minimum
UBS 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 4
Ultraserfinco 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.2
Summary
Minimum 2.9 2.3 3.1 2.5
Maximum 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3
Median 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.1
Consensus 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.1
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2
60 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
90 days ago 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.2
Central Bank (Feb. 2020) 3.1 3.0 - - 17 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst
CAF (Jan. 2020) 3.1 3.0 - - 5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Notes and sources

3
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 2

Colombia AGPV 4.25 4.25
Latin America ANIF 4.25 -
15 Banco Davivienda 4.00 -
10 Banco de Bogotá 4.25 4.75
Bancolombia 4.50 4.75
10 Barclays Capital 4.75 -
5 BTG Pactual 4.25 4.25
5 CABI 3.75 -
Colombia
Latin America Citigroup Global Mkts 4.25 4.75
Corficolombiana 4.25 4.75
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Credicorp Capital 4.25 5.00
Ecoanalítica 4.50 4.50
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst
Fedesarrollo 4.50 4.50
7 7
Maximum Maximum Goldman Sachs 4.25 5.00
Consensus Consensus HSBC 4.25 4.25
Minimum Itaú Unibanco 4.25 4.50
Minimum
6 6 JPMorgan 3.75 -
5 5 Positiva Compañía de Seguros 4.50 4.50
S&P Global 4.25 5.00
4 4 UBS 4.25 4.50
Ultraserfinco 4.50 4.75
Summary
3 3 Minimum 3.75 4.25
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Maximum 4.75 5.00
Median 4.25 4.63
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 4.28 4.60
History
100% 30 days ago 4.33 4.65
60 days ago 4.41 4.61
90 days ago 4.48 4.69
75%
50%
25%
0%
<2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 >6.00
Notes and sources
from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
3,500 3,500 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

AGPV 3,300 3,350
Banco Davivienda 3,320 -
3,000 3,300 Banco de Bogotá 3,250 3,282
Bancolombia 3,290 3,250
Barclays Capital 3,525 3,631
2,500 3,100 BBVA Research 3,340 3,210
BTG Pactual 3,350 3,300
Capital Economics 3,450 3,350
2,000 2,900 Citigroup Global Mkts 3,310 3,210
Corficolombiana 3,350 -
Credicorp Capital 3,150 -
Ecoanalítica 3,242 3,386
1,500 2,700
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 EIU 3,363 3,355
Fitch Solutions 3,475 3,529
25 | COP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | COP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst
HSBC 3,325 -
Itaú Unibanco 3,320 3,320
4,000 4,000
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 3,450 -
Consensus Consensus Moody's Analytics 3,396 3,430
Minimum Minimum Oxford Economics 3,321 3,306
Pezco Economics 3,300 3,450
3,500 3,500 Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,150 3,100
S&P Global 3,400 3,400
Scotiabank 3,250 3,180
Standard Chartered 3,200 3,290
3,000 3,000 UBS 3,500 3,600
Ultraserfinco 3,070 3,000
Summary
Minimum 3,070 3,000
2,500 2,500 Maximum 3,525 3,631
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Median 3,321 3,320
Consensus 3,323 3,330
27 | COP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution History
30 days ago 3,352 3,331
80% 60 days ago 3,376 3,357
90 days ago 3,301 3,251
60%
40%
20%
0%
<2600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 >4000
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Colombia
Latin America
0
ANIF -4.3 - -7.3 -
Banco Davivienda -4.3 - -7.1 -
Banco de Bogotá -4.4 - - - -2
Bancolombia -4.5 -4.4 - -

Barclays Capital -4.1 -3.8 - - -4
BBVA Research -4.3 -4.0 -13.4 -13.3
BTG Pactual -4.6 -4.3 - -
-6
CABI - - -7.0 -
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.7 -4.2 - - -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Corficolombiana -4.3 - -7.8 -
Credicorp Capital -4.6 - -10.6 -
DekaBank -4.5 -4.7 - -
EIU -4.5 -4.7 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Euromonitor Int. -4.3 -4.0 - -
-2.5
Fedesarrollo -4.4 -4.1 -10.1 -9.9
Fitch Solutions -4.1 -3.8 -8.5 -9.0
Goldman Sachs -4.3 -3.9 -9.3 -8.6
-3.0
HSBC -3.9 -4.0 -9.5 -10.5
Itaú Unibanco -4.4 -4.0 - -
JPMorgan -4.4 -4.1 -9.4 -9.0
-3.5
Oxford Economics -4.5 -3.8 -9.2 -7.4
Standard Chartered -3.6 -4.0 - - -4.0
UBS -4.1 -3.4 -9.9 -9.0 2020 2021

Ultraserfinco -4.2 - - -
Summary -4.5
Minimum -4.7 -4.7 -13.4 -13.3
Maximum -3.6 -3.0 -7.0 -7.4
Median -4.3 -4.0 -9.3 -9.0 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Consensus -4.3 -4.0 -9.2 -9.6
90
History Trade Balance
30 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -9.4 -9.6 Exports
60 days ago -4.2 -3.9 -9.7 -10.0 Imports
60
90 days ago -4.1 -3.8 -9.1 -10.2
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-3
-6
Notes and sources

-9
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 2020 2021
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-12


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn
40
ANIF 44.4 - 51.7 -
Banco Davivienda 47.7 - 54.8 -
Bancolombia - - 54.3 - 20
BBVA Research 42.0 45.3 55.4 58.6
CABI 45.8 - 52.8 -
0
Corficolombiana 45.7 - 53.5 -
Fedesarrollo 45.0 48.3 55.1 58.2 -20
Fitch Solutions 46.2 49.3 54.7 58.3 Colombia
Goldman Sachs 46.2 49.5 55.5 58.1 Latin America
HSBC 44.0 44.9 53.5 55.4 -40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 41.6 42.0 51.0 51.0
UBS 44.6 47.3 54.5 56.4 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Summary
53
Minimum 41.6 42.0 51.0 51.0
Maximum 47.7 50.9 55.7 58.6
Median 45.0 47.8 54.4 58.2
51
Consensus 44.8 47.2 54.0 56.8
History
30 days ago 44.5 47.2 53.9 56.8
60 days ago 45.0 47.6 54.7 57.6 48
90 days ago 45.9 48.3 54.9 58.5
46
2020 2021
43
40
20
-20
Colombia
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
60
58
56
Notes and sources
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021


USD bn USD bn
AGPV 54.0 55.0 - -
ANIF 52.9 - - - 10
Banco Davivienda 52.4 - - -
Banco de Bogotá 52.9 - - -
Barclays Capital 53.3 53.3 130 132
BBVA Research 53.9 56.9 - - 5
Corficolombiana 52.6 - - - Colombia
Credicorp Capital 54.0 - - - Latin America
Ecoanalítica 51.8 53.2 - - 0
EIU 52.6 53.3 144 147 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 54.9 56.5 127 142 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
HSBC - - 164 177
56
JPMorgan 52.3 - 131 132 2020 2021
Oxford Economics - - 156 163
54
UBS 51.3 50.8 139 143
Summary
Minimum 51.3 50.8 127 132
52
Maximum 56.7 58.9 164 177
Median 53.3 55.0 141 145
Consensus 53.4 54.9 143 150
History 50
30 days ago 53.3 53.8 143 149

60 days ago 53.3 54.3 146 153
90 days ago 53.0 53.2 146 162 48
50
Colombia
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
165
2020 2021
155
Notes and sources

145
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
135
38 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Colombia
Cali (2.7m) Colombia
8.4% 6.4%
Area (km2): 1,138,910
Other
Population (million, 2018 est.): 49.8 Other
18.0%
22.8%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.2 Peru
5.7%
Brazil
Brazil
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016 est.): 5.3 5.4% 35.0% 36.1%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Argentina 10.4%
7.5%
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 23.4%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
110
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80
80
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,178 60
Manufacturing Investment

50
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 68.3 40 Other Industry
Consumption

20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 357 20 Private
Services
Transportation (2015) 0 -10
Airports: 836
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura
Political Data Other

15.0%
Other 8.9%

Mexico U.S.A.
U.S.A.
President: Iván Duque Márquez
27.0% 8.1% 27.3%
Last elections: 17 June 2018 Panama

Exports
Other
LatAm Imports

Central Bank President: Juan José Echavarría

13.4%


Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Stable
EU-27
EU-27
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative
12.3%
Other 13.1%
China
LatAm Other Asia
21.8% 21.2% Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.0% ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings China 8.0%
5.0%

S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative
Other Other
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food 5.7%

12.0%
3.7%
16.8%
Mineral
Manufact.
• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts Products
Fuels
8.7%

including coffee, oil and gas, coal, in international commodity prices 23.7%

gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports
• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector

• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity Manufact.
Mineral
Products
• Poverty and high inequality Fuels
75.6%
53.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Mexico February 2020
Mexico
Mexico
Outlook moderates
• Preliminary figures revealed that GDP declined yet again on annual basis
in the final quarter of 2019—leading to the first full-year economic slump
since the 2009 crisis. Industrial-sector output contracted for the fifth quarter
running, primarily due to the hammered construction and mining sectors,
dragging down overall activity. Moreover, agricultural production cooled
in the quarter and although activity in the services sector quickened,
the increase was underwhelming, which alludes to softer-than-expected
growth in household spending. Turning to 2020, available data suggests
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
a gradually improving scenario. The manufacturing PMI rose in January,
Population (million): 124 127 130 albeit remained in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, the services PMI
GDP (USD bn): 1,152 1,308 1,481
returned to growth for the first time in nine months, which, coupled with
GDP growth (%): 2.4 0.8 2.2 strengthening consumer confidence, bodes well for consumption gaining
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 traction.
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.5 3.4
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.9 -0.8 -1.3 • The economy is expected to recover this year on the back of stronger
consumer spending, buttressed by rising real wages and upbeat
Javier Colato remittances. Increased effectiveness in executing public spending and
Economist investment should also support growth. Depressed business confidence,
an uncertain global trade environment and the finances of debt-laden
Pemex weigh on the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists
estimate growth of 0.9% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points
4 3.0 from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2021.
3 2.5
• Inflation climbed to 3.2% in January (December 2019: 2.8%), thus landing
2 2.0 slightly above the midpoint of Banxico’s target range of 2.0%–4.0%.
Core inflation, meanwhile, has proved sticky, hovering at 3.5%–4.0%
1 1.5
for nearly two years now. Inflation is expected to remain broadly steady
0 1.0 going forward, though the sizeable minimum wage hike is an upside risk.
2020 2021
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 3.4% and 2021
-1 0.5
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec at 3.5%.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.
• At its first meeting of the year on 13 February, Banxico axed the target
rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%, coming in line with market expectations
and marking the fifth consecutive cut. The decision was unanimous, and
12 3.8 was motivated by contained headline inflation and increased economic
slack. The vast majority of our panelists see Banxico further loosening
3.7
9 policy this year. FocusEconomics analysts expect the target rate to end
3.6 2020 at 6.34% and 2021 at 6.04%.
6
3.5
• The peso strengthened against the U.S. dollar and hit over one-year
3
3.4 highs in recent weeks, buoyed in large part by the signing of the USMCA
Mexico
trade deal by President Trump. On 14 February, the MXN traded at 18.54
2020 2021
Latin America
0 3.3
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec per USD, appreciating 1.3% month-on-month. The peso is expected to
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. weaken somewhat ahead, while remaining vulnerable to episodes of
volatility and risk aversion. Our panel projects the MXN to end 2020 at
19.65 per USD and 2021 at 19.95 per USD.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economy shrinks for third consecutive quarter in Q4
2019
5.0
The economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in the final stretch
of 2019, according to a preliminary GDP estimate released by the Statistical
Institute (INEGI) on 30 January. Economic activity fell 0.3% in year-on-year,
2.5
unadjusted terms in Q4, matching the third quarter’s decline. On a seasonally-
% adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, output flatlined in Q4, also unchanged from
the previous quarter’s reading but landing above market expectations. For the
0.0
year as a whole, GDP shrank 0.1%, contrasting 2018’s 2.1% expansion and
marking the first slump since the economic crisis of 2009.
-2.5
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 The slip confirmed continued weakness in the secondary sector of the
economy. Industrial-sector output fell a sharper 1.8% year-on-year (Q3: -1.4%
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus year-on-year) as construction and mining activity continued to disappoint.
Forecast.
Moreover, agricultural production lost considerable steam, expanding 1.9% on
an annual basis (Q3: +5.4% yoy). Somewhat more encouragingly, services-
sector activity quickened slightly, though remained subdued overall (Q4:
+0.2% yoy; Q3: +0.1% yoy).
The INEGI will release a second GDP estimate on 25 February.
Economic Activity | variation in % Banxico sees growth at 0.8%–1.8% this year and at 1.3%–2.3% in 2021.
1.2 6 Meanwhile, the LatinFocus panel expects the economy to grow 0.9% in 2020,
which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the
0.6 4 panel sees growth at 1.7%.
0.0 2 REAL SECTOR | Economic activity recovers slightly in November

% % The monthly indicator for economic activity (IGAE) advanced 0.1% in
-0.6 0 seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in November 2019, rebounding
from October’s revised 0.4% fall (previously reported: -0.5% month-on-month;
-1.2 -2 s.a.).
November’s print reflected a mixed performance across the major sectors.

Note: Month-on-month (s.a.) and year-on-year changes of economic activity
indicator in %. Although primary-sector activity contracted from October, the industrial sector
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. grew modestly. Meanwhile, activity in the services sector stagnated in the
month.
On a year-on-year basis, economic activity dipped 1.2% in November, more

sharply than October’s 0.7% slip. Lastly, the annual average variation in
economic activity fell to a 0.2% contraction from flat growth in October.
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect

fixed investment to contract 0.3% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage
Consumer Confidence
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees fixed investment
50
expanding 1.8%.
45
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment edges up in January
Consumer confidence improved slightly at the outturn of 2020, with the
40
seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence indicator published by the Statistical
Institute (INEGI) coming in at 44.2 points in January, up from December’s 43.5
35
reading. Since August 2019, INEGI began reporting the indicator as a balance
rather than as an index.
30
Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
January’s result mainly reflected households’ more positive outlook regarding

Note: Consumer confidence indicator. (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del their financial situation and general economic environment in the year ahead.
Consumidor).
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). Similarly, households’ assessment over their current financial situation and

Manufacturing Index the current state of the economy turned more positive in the month. Lastly,
65 consumers’ appraisal over their ability to purchase big-ticket items improved.
IMEF Manufacturing PMI
IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Manufacturing Index
60 Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect
private consumption to grow 1.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage
55
points from last month’s projection, and 2.1% in 2021.
OUTLOOK | Manufacturing PMIs bounce back at the turn of 2020

50
The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) climbed from
45
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 47.0 in December to 48.2 at the start of 2020, signaling a softer contraction
in the manufacturing sector. Notably, production, new orders and employment
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally-
adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI. declined at milder rates in January compared to the previous month, driving
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration. the indicator’s upturn.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of
Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
IHS Markit. Similarly, the seasonally-adjusted manufacturing PMI produced by IHS Markit
jumped to 49.0 in January from 47.1 in December, which had marked the
worst reading since the survey began in April 2011. Thus, the index moved
up towards the 50-threshold, indicating a weaker deterioration in business
conditions in the manufacturing sector. January’s rise largely reflected a return
to growth in employment and business confidence reaching an eight-month
high. Moreover, although output and new orders fell, their pace of decline
Inflation | Consumer Price Index moderated compared to December.
1.2 6
Month-on-month (left scale) According to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel, industrial production
0.8 5
will climb 0.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
projection, and 1.3% in 2021.
0.4 4
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation bounces back from over three-year low
% %
in January
0.0 3
Consumer prices rose 0.48% from the previous month in January, following
the 0.56% month-on-month increase logged in December. According to the
-0.4 2
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Statistical Institute (INEGI), January’s reading largely reflected higher prices
for food, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Inflation climbed from 2.8% in December, which had marked the lowest
reading since August 2016, to 3.2% in January—thus landing slightly above
the midpoint of Banxico’s target range of 2.0%–4.0%. Meanwhile, annual
average inflation ticked down to 3.5% in January from 3.6% in the previous
month.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose
0.33% over the previous month in January, down from December’s 0.41%
Monetary Policy Rate | in % increase. For its part, core inflation inched up to 3.7% from 3.6% in December.
10
Banxico sees inflation ending this year at 3.0%. Panelists surveyed by

8
FocusEconomics expect inflation to end 2020 at 3.4%, which is unchanged
from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees year-end inflation at
6
3.5%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico axes rate for fifth consecutive time in

4
February to revive activity
%
At its first meeting of the year on 13 February, the Governing Board of the
2
Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unanimously decided to slash the target for the
overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%, marking the fifth
Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico). consecutive cut and coming in line with market expectations.

As in December’s meeting, efforts to revive growth and broadly contained

inflationary pressures underpinned the Board’s decision. Inflation climbed to
3.2% in January from an over three-year low of 2.8% in December, landing
slightly above Banxico’s 3.0% target. However, core inflation has proved
sticky and hovered at around 3.7% recently, stoked in part by excise taxes.
Meanwhile, economic activity has remained depressed, with the latest GDP
data showing that output contracted yet again in the final quarter of 2019—
leading to the first full-year economic slump since the 2009 crisis.
In terms of forward guidance, the statement struck a broadly neutral tone,

alluding to a continuation of the current easing cycle, though at a gradual
pace. The main downside risk to the outlook remained weak growth and the
Bank indicated it will lower its forecasts in the next Inflation Report. In addition,
although the Bank hinted it will revise its inflation and core inflation forecasts
modestly higher, the balance of risks remains balanced. Stickiness of core
inflation; wage increases that could affect price dynamics; a deterioration in
public finances; and higher-than-expected price growth for energy and farm
products could stoke inflation, while an appreciation of the peso, lower global
energy prices amid the coronavirus outbreak, and wider-than-anticipated
slack could weigh on inflation. As such, as in December’s meeting, the Bank
stressed that it will maintain a prudent stance going forward and policy will be
adjusted accordingly so that inflation converges to target.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 26 March.
FocusEconomics panellists see Banxico’s target rate at 6.34% by end-2020

and 6.04% by end-2021.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports rebound in the final month of 2019

Exports rose 3.0% year-on-year in December 2019, rebounding from
November’s 2.9% dip and putting an end to three consecutive months of
falling exports. The upturn was mainly driven by a solid recovery of overseas
Merchandise Trade shipments of manufactured goods.
6 12
In contrast, imports slipped 0.3% over the same month of 2018 in December,
0 8 following the 10.3% plunge logged in November. The softer contraction mainly
reflected a weaker decline in the purchase of intermediate goods as well as a
-6 4 rebound in consumer goods imports compared to November.
%
-12 0
Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 3.1
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale) billion in December, larger than the USD 1.9 billion surplus logged in the same
Exports (yoy, right scale)
Imports (yoy, right scale) month of 2018. Moreover, the 12-month rolling trade balance climbed to a USD
-18 -4
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 5.8 billion surplus in December from a USD 4.6 billion surplus in November.
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect merchandise
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
exports to reach USD 478 billion in 2020. Meanwhile, merchandise imports
are expected to reach USD 478 billion. For 2021, the panel expects exports
and imports to total USD 499 billion and USD 500 billion, respectively.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances return to growth in final month of

2019
Remittances totaled USD 3.1 billion in the final month of 2019 (November:
USD 2.9 billion), a 3.1% increase from the same month in 2018 and contrasting
the 2.3% decline logged in November, which was the first in over three years.
December’s rebound came despite a mild slowdown in U.S. non-farm payrolls

Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in % growth. Meanwhile, the average amount remitted edged down to USD 326
30 2.1 from USD 328 a month prior.
In the 12 months up to December, remittances totaled a record-high USD

15 1.8 36.0 billion, matching the figure recorded in the 12 months up to November.
%
December’s 12-month rolling total marked a 7.0% increase from a year earlier
%
(November 2019: +7.5% yoy).
0 1.5
Remittances (yoy, left scale) Analysts expect remittances to remain upbeat in 2020 and reach USD 37.1
U.S. non-farm payrolls (yoy, right scale)
billion. For 2021, the panel sees remittances at USD 38.0 billion.
-15 1.2
Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and

U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 132
GDP (USD bn) 1,168 1,077 1,159 1,221 1,264 1,312 1,348 1,408 1,480 1,555
GDP (MXN bn) 18,551 20,118 21,912 23,492 24,324 25,384 26,693 28,139 29,711 31,422
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.1 -0.1 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.1 1.8 2.0 -1.0 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.6 0.7 3.0 -1.7 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 1.0 -1.6 0.9 -4.5 -0.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.4 3.6 4.2 5.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.9 2.8 6.4 5.9 -0.1 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -1.8 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.0 5.3 -0.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 3.25 5.75 7.25 8.25 7.25 6.34 6.04 5.82 5.78 5.75
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 3.42 5.84 7.51 8.41 7.70 6.68 6.35 6.16 6.06 5.97
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.18 20.73 19.65 19.65 18.93 19.65 19.95 20.01 20.14 20.27
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 15.88 18.69 18.91 19.23 19.25 19.35 19.80 19.98 20.07 20.21
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -14.7 -13.1 -11.0 -13.6 5.8 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 -5.9 -12.7
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.1 -1.7 9.5 10.1 2.3 3.7 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8
Remittances (USD bn) 24.8 27.0 30.3 33.7 36.1 37.1 38.0 39.5 41.0 42.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 177 177 173 175 181 184 187 193 200 207
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.5 1.4 1.2 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 1.3 0.9 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 0.8 -0.8 -2.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.3 -3.7 -0.2 -7.7 -6.5 -3.8 -2.1 -0.2 0.8 0.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.0 -1.4 -0.5 -3.0 -1.5 -2.1 -0.5 0.3 0.6 1.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.8
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.75 8.25 8.25 8.25 7.75 7.25 6.82 6.56 6.38 6.34
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.11 8.41 8.52 8.51 8.20 7.70 7.02 6.80 6.76 6.68
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 18.94 19.84 19.20 19.11 19.44 19.25 19.05 19.27 19.47 19.61
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -0.9 -2.8 1.4 0.7 -0.1 -1.6 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -5.8 -2.8 -8.7 4.5 2.0 -0.3 -5.0 -1.5 -2.8 -3.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -5.8 -3.4 -1.8 5.0 -0.5 3.1 0.6 1.3 -2.3 -1.9
Economic Activity (IGAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.1 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.8 -3.3 -2.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 -
Consumer Confidence Indicator 45.8 44.6 43.8 43.2 43.5 44.8 43.8 43.4 43.5 44.2
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 52.0 49.1 48.5 48.8 47.2 48.0 46.5 46.7 47.0 48.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.05 -0.29 0.06 0.38 -0.02 0.26 0.54 0.81 0.56 0.48
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 6.1 6.7 1.2 7.0 2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -2.9 3.0 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 6.4 4.0 1.4 14.0 16.4 13.0 3.6 -2.3 3.1 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
9 4
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Mexico Actinver 1.0 1.6
Latin America
World AGPV 1.0 2.0
6
American Chamber Mexico 0.0 -
2 Banamex-Citigroup 1.0 1.5
3 Barclays Capital 0.6 2.0
BBVA Bancomer 1.5 2.0
BNP Paribas 0.6 1.7
0
0 CABI 1.0 -
-3 Mexico
Latin America
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 0.8 1.3
World Commerzbank 0.8 1.5
-6 -2 Credit Agricole 1.1 1.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 D.Econosignal 1.1 1.9
DekaBank 1.0 2.0
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts DIW Berlin 1.1 1.1
DuckerFrontier 0.4 1.9
4 4 EIU 1.1 1.6
3
Fitch Ratings 1.5 2.0
3 Fitch Solutions 1.2 2.2
GBM Securities 0.9 1.3
2 Goldman Sachs 1.1 1.7
2 HSBC 1.2 2.1
1 IMEF 1.0 1.5
ING 0.8 1.7
1 INVEX 0.9 1.5
0 Maximum Maximum Itaú Unibanco 0.9 1.5
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum JPMorgan 1.0 1.7
-1 0 Julius Baer 1.0 1.0
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Kiel Institute 0.5 1.5
Monex 0.8 -
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Moody's Analytics 1.2 2.3
NORD/LB 1.1 1.9
60% Oxford Economics 0.5 1.4
Prognosis 1.0 1.8
S&P Global 1.0 1.5
Scotiabank 1.0 1.8
40% Société Générale 0.0 1.5
UBS 0.9 1.7
Ve Por Más 1.2 1.5
20% Vector Casa de Bolsa 1.3 1.7
Summary
Minimum 0.0 1.0
Maximum 1.5 2.3
0%
Median 1.0 1.7
<-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 >3.0 Consensus 0.9 1.7
History
30 days ago 1.0 1.7
60 days ago 1.2 1.8
90 days ago 1.3 1.9
CEPAL (Dec. 2019) 1.3 -
IMF (Jan. 2019) 1.0 1.6
World Bank (Jan. 2020) 1.2 1.8
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


10
Actinver 1.9 2.0 0.1 1.8 5
American Chamber Mexico 2.3 - 1.3 -
Banamex-Citigroup 1.6 2.0 -1.6 0.6
Barclays Capital 1.8 2.4 -0.5 2.5 0
BBVA Bancomer 1.6 1.9 0.1 2.7
CABI 1.5 - 0.0 -
Capital Economics 1.5 2.5 1.0 2.5 -5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 1.0 1.2 -0.5 1.0
Mexico
D.Econosignal 1.0 2.1 0.2 1.5 Latin America
DuckerFrontier 0.9 2.3 - - -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.9
Fitch Ratings 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.1
Fitch Solutions 1.7 2.9 -3.6 3.5 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities 1.3 1.9 0.2 1.4
Goldman Sachs 1.3 1.8 0.5 2.1 3.0
HSBC 1.6 2.7 0.0 0.5
JPMorgan 1.1 1.9 0.8 1.5
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.7 -3.8 1.2 2.5
Prognosis 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.2
S&P Global 1.0 1.3 - -
Scotiabank 1.3 2.0 -1.4 1.1
Société Générale 1.5 1.8 -4.9 2.1 2.0
UBS 0.9 1.3 2.9 4.0
Summary 2020 2021
Minimum 0.9 1.2 -4.9 0.5
Maximum 4.2 4.3 2.9 4.0 1.5
Median 1.5 2.0 0.1 1.5 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Consensus 1.5 2.1 -0.3 1.8
History
30 days ago 1.6 2.1 -0.1 1.7
60 days ago 1.7 2.3 0.2 1.8 16
90 days ago 1.8 2.3 0.3 1.6
-8
Mexico
Latin America
-16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1
Notes and sources
0
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -1


10
5
American Chamber Mexico 1.0 - 3.7 - - -
Banamex-Citigroup 0.4 0.8 3.6 3.5 -3.1 -3.5
Barclays Capital - - 3.6 3.6 -2.1 -2.1
0
BBVA Bancomer - - 3.5 3.3 -2.1 -2.0
CABI - - - - -2.4 -
-5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex - - - - -2.5 -
D.Econosignal 0.6 1.3 3.7 3.6 - -
Mexico DekaBank - - - - -2.9 -2.3
Latin America DIW Berlin - - 3.6 3.5 - -
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 DuckerFrontier 1.4 1.8 3.7 3.5 - -
EIU 0.2 2.0 3.7 3.6 -2.9 -2.3
Euromonitor Int. 0.5 0.5 3.6 3.5 -2.3 -2.4
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Fitch Solutions - - 3.5 3.5 -2.3 -2.3
GBM Securities 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.9 -1.6 -1.6
3
Goldman Sachs - - 4.2 4.5 -2.6 -3.3
HSBC 0.0 0.7 - - -2.9 -
2020 2021
IMEF - - - - -2.3 -2.4
INVEX 0.6 2.0 3.4 3.3 -2.0 -1.5
2
Itaú Unibanco - - 3.6 3.6 -2.1 -2.2
JPMorgan - - 4.0 4.5 -2.1 -2.5
Moody's Analytics -0.3 2.3 4.0 4.1 - -
NORD/LB - - 3.6 3.6 -2.3 -2.4
1 Oxford Economics -0.1 1.5 3.9 4.0 -2.4 -2.5
Prognosis 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.6 -2.1 -1.7
S&P Global - - 3.8 4.0 - -
Scotiabank 0.9 1.2 3.8 4.5 -2.5 -2.4
0 Société Générale - - 4.4 5.0 -2.1 -2.0
UBS 0.9 1.5 3.9 3.9 -2.0 -2.4
Ve Por Más - - 3.5 - - -
Summary
Minimum -0.3 0.5 3.4 3.3 -3.1 -3.5
12 Maximum 1.4 2.3 4.4 5.0 -1.6 -1.5
Mexico Median 0.5 1.3 3.7 3.6 -2.3 -2.4
Latin America Consensus 0.5 1.3 3.7 3.8 -2.4 -2.4
10
History
30 days ago 0.6 1.4 3.8 3.8 -2.5 -2.5
8 60 days ago 0.5 1.3 3.8 3.9 -2.5 -2.6
90 days ago 0.5 1.2 3.8 3.8 -2.5 -2.7
6
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2
Mexico
Latin America
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de
-4
Estadística y Geografía) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). See below for details. Forecasts based on
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in %

(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Mexico
Actinver 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.5 8

AGPV 2.9 3.0 - -
American Chamber Mexico 3.4 - 3.4 -
Banamex-Citigroup 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5
6
BBVA Bancomer 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
BNP Paribas - - 3.1 3.4
CABI 4.0 - - - 4
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.7
Commerzbank - - 3.3 3.3 2
Credit Agricole - - 3.2 3.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
D.Econosignal 3.5 3.4 - -
DIW Berlin - - 3.3 3.2 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
12
EIU 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.1
GBM Securities 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.4 9
HSBC 3.3 - 3.4 3.3
IMEF 3.5 3.5 - - 6
ING - - 3.3 3.7
INVEX 3.3 4.0 3.5 3.5
Itaú Unibanco 3.2 3.3 - - 3
JPMorgan 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.4 Mexico
Julius Baer - - 3.5 3.0 Latin America
0
Monex 3.6 - 3.5 - Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
NORD/LB - - 3.3 3.4
Prognosis 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
S&P Global 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5
Scotiabank 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
UBS 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4
4
Ve Por Más 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6
Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.2 3.3 - -
Summary
Minimum 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0
Maximum 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.2 3
Median 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 Maximum
Consensus 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 Consensus
History Minimum
30 days ago 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 2
60 days ago 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
90 days ago 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4
Central Bank (Nov. 2019) 3.0 - - - 17 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst
IMF (Nov. 2019) 3.0 - - - 5
Notes and sources

3
Maximum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Institute of
Consensus
Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are
Minimum
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 2
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

18 | Interest Rate | 2000-2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Mexico Actinver 6.50 6.00
Latin America AGPV 7.00 6.75
15 12 Banamex-Citigroup 6.25 6.25
BBVA Bancomer 6.00 5.50
10 8 CABI 6.00 -
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 6.50 5.75
5 4 D.Econosignal 6.25 5.25
Mexico DekaBank 6.75 -
Latin America Fitch Solutions 6.50 6.00
0 0 GBM Securities 6.50 6.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Goldman Sachs 6.00 6.00
HSBC 6.50 6.50
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst IMEF 6.50 6.25
ING 6.00 5.50
10 10
INVEX 6.00 6.00
Maximum Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum Minimum JPMorgan 6.25 5.75
Monex 6.25 -
8 8
NORD/LB 6.75 -
Prognosis 6.25 6.00
6 6 Scotiabank 7.00 7.00
Société Générale 5.25 -
UBS 6.00 6.00
Ve Por Más 6.75 6.25
4 4 Summary
Minimum 5.25 5.25
Maximum 7.00 7.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median 6.25 6.00
Consensus 6.34 6.04
60% History
30 days ago 6.35 6.05
60 days ago 6.45 6.02
90 days ago 6.63 6.34
40%
20%
0%
<4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 >8.00
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Actinver 19.60 20.20
AGPV 19.00 20.00
20 American Chamber Mexico 20.10 -
20 Banamex-Citigroup 19.50 19.83
15 BBVA Bancomer 19.20 19.16
BNP Paribas 18.50 18.30
18 Capital Economics 19.50 19.50
10 Casa de Bolsa Finamex 19.50 20.00
Commerzbank 19.20 -
5 16 D.Econosignal 19.70 19.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 DekaBank 20.00 -
EIU 20.23 19.55
25 | MXN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | MXN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Fitch Solutions 19.40 19.63
GBM Securities 20.00 20.00
24 24
HSBC 20.50 -
IMEF 20.00 20.50
ING 19.60 20.50
INVEX 19.25 19.77
21 21
JPMorgan 19.50 20.00
Julius Baer 19.80 20.00
Monex 19.90 -
Maximum Maximum
NORD/LB 19.00 -
Consensus Consensus Oxford Economics 19.32 19.51
Minimum Minimum Prognosis 20.00 21.00
15 15 S&P Global 20.50 21.00
27 | MXN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution UBS 20.00 21.00
Ve Por Más 19.70 19.80
75% Summary
Minimum 18.50 18.30
Maximum 20.50 21.15
Median 19.60 19.83
50% Consensus 19.65 19.95
History
30 days ago 19.81 20.00
60 days ago 20.03 20.15
25% 90 days ago 20.17 20.15
0%
<16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 >24.00
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Mexico
AGPV - - 35.0 30.0
American Chamber Mexico -2.1 - - - 0
Banamex-Citigroup -0.6 -1.1 -3.9 -9.2
Barclays Capital -1.0 -1.1 - -
BBVA Bancomer -2.0 -2.0 -13.7 -15.7
BNP Paribas -1.1 -1.2 - - -2
CABI - - 9.2 -
Credit Agricole -1.0 -1.2 - -
DekaBank -1.2 -0.9 - - -4
EIU -1.2 -0.9 -7.4 -5.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -2.9
Fitch Solutions -1.0 -0.9 -5.6 -5.1
GBM Securities -1.0 -1.6 -3.0 -3.2 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Goldman Sachs -0.6 -0.9 -3.1 -6.1
HSBC -0.9 - - - -0.8
IMEF -1.2 -1.5 - -
2020 2021
INVEX -0.4 -0.6 -2.0 -5.0
Itaú Unibanco -1.2 -1.4 - - -1.1
JPMorgan -1.0 -1.4 -0.1 -4.4
NORD/LB -1.3 -1.3 - - -1.4
Oxford Economics -0.8 -1.0 -6.9 -11.4
Prognosis -1.4 -1.7 -4.6 -9.4
Scotiabank -1.2 -1.3 -5.0 -9.9 -1.7
Standard Chartered -1.3 -1.3 - -
UBS -0.6 -0.8 6.6 -2.2 -2.0
Summary Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Minimum -2.1 -2.0 -13.7 -15.7
Maximum -0.3 -0.5 35.0 30.0
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Median -1.0 -1.2 -3.5 -5.1
Consensus -1.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.5 750
History Trade Balance
30 days ago -1.1 -1.1 -3.4 -2.9 Exports
Imports
60 days ago -1.3 -1.1 -4.5 -7.2 500
90 days ago -1.5 -1.4 -7.8 -14.2
250
-250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2020 2021
0
-6
Notes and sources -12
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based -18
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -24


Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
AGPV 495 500 460 470 20
American Chamber Mexico 452 - - -
Banamex-Citigroup 476 490 480 499
BBVA Bancomer 484 512 498 528 0
CABI 483 - 474 -
EIU 452 449 459 454
Euromonitor Int. 464 482 464 484 -20
Fitch Solutions 486 523 492 528
Mexico
GBM Securities 480 504 483 507 Latin America
Goldman Sachs 484 510 487 516 -40
HSBC 508 551 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
INVEX 454 461 456 466
JPMorgan 510 545 510 549
Oxford Economics 487 498 494 509 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Prognosis 466 475 470 484
Scotiabank 473 494 478 504 570
UBS 474 494 467 497 2020 2021
Summary 550
Minimum 452 449 456 454
Maximum 510 551 510 549
Median 480 498 478 501 530
Consensus 478 499 478 500

History 510
30 days ago 480 503 484 506
60 days ago 485 502 489 509
490
90 days ago 489 501 497 515
470
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
600
2020 2021
575
550
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based 500


USD bn USD bn Mexico
AGPV 184 188 - - 9
American Chamber Mexico 180 - 458 -
Banamex-Citigroup 185 186 497 522
Barclays Capital - - 457 461 6
BNP Paribas 178 178 - -
EIU - - 460 472
Euromonitor Int. 190 197 - - 3
Fitch Solutions 186 192 - -
GBM Securities 184 187 - -
Goldman Sachs 176 176 515 550 0
HSBC 184 - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
INVEX 184 187 - -
Itaú Unibanco 184 186 - -
JPMorgan 181 182 - - 38 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 190 202 - -
Prognosis 183 186 - - 192
Scotiabank 190 191 - -
2020 2021
UBS 185 186 456 456
Summary
Minimum 176 176 456 456 187
Maximum 190 202 515 550
Median 184 187 459 472
Consensus 184 187 474 492
History 182
30 days ago 184 187 474 492
60 days ago 183 186 477 493
90 days ago 183 186 479 523
177
39 | External Debt | USD bn
2500
Mexico
Latin America
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
Mexico
Latin America
40
30
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
39 External debt including federal government bonds held by non-residents, in USD. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
40 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.6m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.1m)
Monterrey (4.7m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375 Mexico
Other
Other 20.9% Mexico
Population (million, 2018 est.): 125 22.8% 18.0% 23.4%

5.7%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.3 Peru
5.4% Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 5.1 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish and Indigenous 7.5%
Argentina
Brazil
35.0%
10.4%
Brazil
8.4%
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8 36.1%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.5 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
120
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80 90
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 7,315 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,053 20 0 Private
Services
Airports: 1,714
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas
Other Other
Political Data 8.6%
11.4%
LatAm

5.4%
President: A. M. López Obrador EU-27
6.0%
Last elections: 1 July 2018

China
18.1%
U.S.A.
Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Alejandro Díaz de León
Other Asia
ex-Japan
U.S.A. 12.4%
80.0%

EU-27


Moody’s: A3 Negative
Primary products | share in %
S&P: BBB+ Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Food Other Food Other

Mineral 6.0%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral 7.5% 4.3%
Fuels Fuels
6.6%
7.3%
5.5%

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Dependence on the U.S.
policy economy
• Large domestic market • Financial sector still relatively Exports Imports
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market weak
• Drug-related violence and
instability
Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
82.6% 80.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru February 2020
Peru
Outlook stable
Peru
• Momentum likely waned in the last quarter of 2019, after stronger public
and private consumption drove an acceleration in the third quarter.
Economic activity cooled in October−December, while the unemployment
rate rose and credit growth moderated in Q4, hinting at subdued
household spending. On the other hand, improved external sector
metrics and rising business confidence in the quarter likely cushioned the
slowdown. Heading into the first quarter of 2020, a further improvement
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages in business sentiment and a surge in public spending in January suggest
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 a firming of growth at the year’s outset. In other news, parliamentary
Population (million): 31.8 32.8 33.8
GDP (USD bn): 211 243 289
elections held on 26 January delivered a highly fragmented Congress. A
GDP per capita (USD): 6,642 7,410 8,542 more fragmented legislature and the poor showing of former presidential
GDP growth (%): 3.5 2.9 3.7
candidate Keiko Fujimori’s Popular Force could strengthen President
Public Debt (% of GDP): 24.8 26.9 25.1 Martín Vizcarra’s hand ahead, although structural reforms and political
Inflation (%): 2.6 2.2 2.4 stability will likely remain elusive.
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.8 -1.9 -1.6
• Growth looks set to strengthen this year, benefiting from a firmer domestic
Massimo Bassetti economy and a better showing of the external sector. Looser monetary
Economist and fiscal conditions should underpin the expansion, while modest
inflation and healthy wage growth will likely sustain household spending.
Protracted political uncertainty could weigh on investment, however.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.1% in 2020, which is
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2021.
6 3.9
• Inflation was unchanged at December’s 1.9% in the first month of 2020,

4
3.6
thus remaining below the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of
2.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Ahead, price pressures should
2
remain contained, with downside risks stemming from weaker-than-
3.3
0
expected domestic demand. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation
Peru 2020 2021 ending 2020 at 2.2% and 2021 at 2.3%.
Latin America
World
-2 3.0
• At its 13 February monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Peru
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. held the policy interest rate steady at 2.25%, the lowest since July 2010.
Within-target inflation, declining inflation expectations and strengthening
albeit still-soft economic activity prompted the Bank to hold its ground.
This year, the Bank could further loosen its stance to support demand.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts The FocusEconomics panel sees the monetary policy rate ending 2020
12
Peru
2.6
at 2.14% and 2021 at 2.59%.
Latin America
9
2.4
• On 14 February, the PEN ended the day at 3.38 per USD, depreciating
1.7% from the same day in January. Coronavirus fears exerted strong
6
downside pressures in recent weeks, although China’s stimulus
3
2.2
measures limited the extent of the weakening. Peru’s nuevo sol is seen
2020 2021 broadly stable this year, supported by low inflation and an improved
0 2.0 external sector performance. FocusEconomics analysts see the PEN
ending 2020 at 3.36 per USD and 2021 at 3.37 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity closes 2019 on a sour note

In December, economic activity grew a weak 1.1% year-on-year, decelerating
Economic Activity | variation in %
markedly from November’s already unremarkable 2.0% outturn and surprising
9
market expectations on the downside. Therefore, economic activity in 2019 as
Year-on-year Annual average a whole expanded 2.2%.
6
In terms of industries, December’s expansion was underpinned by healthy
% growth in the trade, agricultural, accommodation and restaurants and
3
telecommunication sectors. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and construction
sectors reported sizable drops in the month, while production in the fishing
sector nosedived.
0
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 3.8% in both 2020 and 2021.
Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to expand
in %.
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics 3.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2021, the
calculations.
panel expects the economy to grow 3.4%.
OUTLOOK | Business sentiment starts 2020 on a hopeful note

The business confidence indicator rose from December’s 51.0 points to
53.0 points in January. Thus, the indicator moved further above the 50-point
Business Confidence Index
threshold that separates pessimism from optimism, and logged the best print
70
in nine months.
January’s increase reflected a broad-based improvement in the index’s sub-

60
components. Expectations on the general economic situation in the next 3
months got rosier, as did businesses perceptions of the conditions of the
sector in the next 3 and 12 months as well as the outlook on the company’s
50
financial situation and on the demand for the company’s products in the same
time horizons. Meanwhile, expectations on the general economic situation in
the next 12 months remained unchanged.
40
Panelists expect fixed investment to grow 3.1% in 2020, which is up 0.3

Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values
above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panel participants
below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP). see investment growing 3.8%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation stable in January

Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima rose 0.05% over the previous month in
January, down from December’s 0.21% increase. January’s rise was chiefly
the result of higher prices for education and culture and for food and beverages,
1.4 3.0
which more than offset lower prices for transport and communications.
0.7 2.0
Meanwhile, inflation was unchanged at December’s 1.9% in January, thus
remaining below the midpoint of Central Bank’s target range of 2.0% plus
% %
or minus 1.0 percentage points. In January, core consumer prices, which
0.0 1.0
exclude energy and food prices, increased 0.2% from the previous month,
up from December’s 0.1% uptick. Finally, core inflation in January came in at
2.2%, matching December’s reading.
-0.7 0.0
The Central Bank expects inflation to end both 2020 and 2021 at 2.0%.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI).
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation
to end 2020 at 2.2%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2021, the panel expects inflation to come in at 2.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps rates at over nine-year low at

February meeting
At its monetary policy meeting on 13 February, the Central Bank of Peru
(BCRP) held the policy interest rate steady at 2.25%, the lowest point since
July 2010. The Bank last cut the key rate by 25 basis points in November,
the second of the two cuts delivered last year. The Central Bank’s decision
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
matched analysts’ expectations.
4.5
Within-target inflation, declining inflation expectations and strengthening albeit

4.0
still-soft economic activity prompted the Bank to hold its ground. Inflation was
3.5 stable at December’s 1.9% in January, thus remaining below the midpoint
% of the Central Bank’s target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Meanwhile, economic
3.0
activity seemingly lost steam in Q4, although some improvement in business
confidence and a jump in public capital spending in the first month of 2020
2.5
suggest the economy is poised to gradually close the output gap.
2.0
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
The Bank did not provide any strong forward guidance in the accompanying
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %. press release. That said, monetary policy will likely remain expansionary
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
and further rate cuts could be delivered this year. Given inflation is projected
to remain close to the midpoint of the target band, further easing could be
required in the event the output gap narrows slower than expected or if
downside inflation surprises materialize due to a weaker-than-expected
evolution of domestic demand.
The next monetary policy meeting will be held on 12 March.
Our panelists see the monetary policy rate at 2.14% at the end of 2020. For
2021, the panel projects a rate of 2.59% at the end of the year.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports rebound in December

Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 1.2 billion surplus in December, larger
than November’s USD 718 million surplus and matching the USD 1.2 million
Merchandise Trade surplus recorded in the same month last year.
9 27
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (yoy, right scale)
Imports (yoy, right scale) Exports rebounded 6.6% year-on-year in December (November: -4.8% year-
8 18 on-year), boosted by rising foreign sales of mining and agricultural products,
% only partially offset by falling exports of oil and natural gas. Meanwhile,
7 9 imports also bounced back and grew 8.5% annually in December, contrasting
November’s 5.2% fall, on the back of a jump in purchases of consumer and
6 0 capital goods imports.
5 -9 In the 12 months leading up to December, the trade surplus was USD 6.6
billion, matching November’s print.
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see exports
rising 2.8% in 2020 and the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 5.8
billion. For 2021, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 3.7% and forecasts
a trade surplus of USD 5.9 billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 191 195 214 225 232 243 255 270 288 308
GDP (PEN bn) 609 656 698 741 773 812 858 908 963 1,023
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.7 -4.3 -0.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.2 -2.3 3.9 3.2 1.0 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.5
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.9 -0.2 0.2 6.2 -1.7 1.5 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.0
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 2.0 11.5 13.0 8.9 9.1 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 4.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.2 - - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.75 4.25 3.25 2.75 2.25 2.14 2.59 3.24 3.80 4.36
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.41 3.36 3.24 3.37 3.31 3.36 3.37 3.35 3.33 3.31
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.18 3.37 3.26 3.29 3.34 3.34 3.37 3.36 3.34 3.32
External Sector
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -12.9 7.8 22.4 8.1 -2.9 2.8 3.7 5.0 5.7 6.5
External Debt (USD bn) 73.1 74.6 76.5 77.8 79.3 82.2 86.7 90.1 97.0 -
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.8 1.8 -0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.3 0.8 -2.7 1.8 6.6 3.3 - - - -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 2.2 10.5 -0.9 -7.0 4.0 -2.3 - - - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.6 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.8
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.19 2.17 2.16 2.14
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.29 3.36 3.32 3.32 3.34 3.36 3.32 3.33 3.35 3.36
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -0.4 -3.1 -1.5 -2.0 -1.0 - - - -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.3 -0.2 -1.6 -0.9 -1.2 -0.6 - - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.3 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.0 12.5 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.7 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 10.8 10.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.1 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 55.9 52.9 49.8 49.1 45.2 46.8 47.0 49.7 51.0 53.0
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.20 0.15 -0.09 0.20 0.06 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.21 0.05
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -0.6 -12.7 -9.8 3.0 -3.1 2.4 3.7 -4.8 6.6 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16 - Q4 20 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
AGPV 2.9 3.0
Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.0 -
4 Barclays Capital 2.8 3.0
5 BBVA Banco Continental 3.1 3.5
BTG Pactual 3.1 3.6
2 CABI 3.0 -
0 Citigroup Global Mkts 3.4 3.7
0 Credicorp Capital 3.0 -
Peru Peru DekaBank 3.2 3.9
Latin America Latin America DuckerFrontier 2.5 2.8
World World EIU 3.2 3.9
-5 -2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Euromonitor Int. 3.0 3.3
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.5
HSBC 3.5 3.5
5 5 IEDEP - CCL 2.9 3.3
Maximum Maximum IPE 3.2 -
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Itaú Unibanco 3.3 3.5
JPMorgan 3.1 3.5
4 4 Julius Baer 3.0 3.0
Macroconsult 3.0 3.4
3 3 Oxford Economics 3.0 3.7
Rimac Seguros 2.8 -
S&P Global 2.8 3.0
2 2 Scotiabank 3.0 3.5
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Standard Chartered 2.8 3.3
Thorne & Associates 2.8 3.0
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution UBS 2.8 2.7
Summary
80% Minimum 2.5 2.7
Maximum 4.0 4.0
Median 3.0 3.5
60% Consensus 3.1 3.4
History
30 days ago 3.1 3.4
40% 60 days ago 3.2 3.5
90 days ago 3.2 3.6
20%
Central Bank (Dec. 2019) 3.8 3.8
CAF (Jan. 2020) 3.3 3.5
IMF (Jan. 2020) 3.2 3.7
0%
<1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 >4.7
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.


10
Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.0 - - -
BBVA Banco Continental 2.9 3.3 2.2 4.0
5
BTG Pactual 3.0 3.2 3.0 4.4
CABI 3.0 - 3.5 -
Credicorp Capital 3.0 - - - 0
EIU 3.3 3.7 4.6 5.4 Peru
Latin America
Fitch Solutions 3.3 3.4 4.8 4.4 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
IEDEP - CCL 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.2
IPE 3.2 - - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Macroconsult 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3
Moody's Analytics 2.4 3.2 5.0 4.4 4.0
Pezco Economics - - 2.9 3.1
Rimac Seguros 2.8 - 1.0 -
S&P Global 3.1 3.2 - -
3.6
Scotiabank 3.2 3.4 1.8 3.8
Thorne & Associates 2.7 2.7 1.2 1.8
UBS 3.0 3.0 1.6 2.2
Summary
Minimum 3.2
2.4 2.7 1.0 1.8
Maximum 3.5 3.8 5.0 5.4
Median 3.0 3.4 3.1 4.0 2020 2021
Consensus 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.8
History 2.8
30 days ago 3.0 3.4 2.8 3.7
60 days ago 3.2 3.4 3.0 4.0
90 days ago 3.3 3.6 3.5 4.4
30
Peru
Latin America
20
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

3
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

10 | Industry | variation in % Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance
12
Banco de Crédito del Perú 1.6 - 6.7 - -2.0 -
6
Barclays Capital - - - - -2.0 -1.8
BBVA Banco Continental -0.5 2.4 - - -1.8 -1.8
BTG Pactual - - 6.6 6.5 -1.5 -1.0
0
CABI - - - - -2.3 -
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 6.5 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
-6 Credicorp Capital 1.6 - 6.7 - -2.0 -
Peru DekaBank - - - - -1.6 -1.3
Latin America DuckerFrontier - - 6.4 6.1 - -
-12 EIU 2.5 4.7 6.5 6.5 -1.6 -1.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. - - - - -2.0 -1.8
Fitch Solutions - - - - -2.2 -2.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.0 -1.0
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
HSBC - - - - -2.0 -2.0
4
IEDEP - CCL - - 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -2.0
IPE - - - - -2.4 -
Itaú Unibanco - - 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
JPMorgan - - - - -2.1 -2.2
Macroconsult 0.7 1.8 - - -1.8 -1.7
3
Moody's Analytics 3.9 5.0 - - -2.2 -2.0
Oxford Economics - - 6.4 6.3 -1.8 -1.6
Pezco Economics - - - - -2.5 -2.2
Rimac Seguros 0.3 - - - -1.9 -
2 S&P Global - - 6.6 7.0 - -
Scotiabank 2.0 2.7 - - -1.8 -1.6
Thorne & Associates - - 6.5 6.4 -2.0 -2.5
2020 2021
UBS 1.0 2.0 6.8 6.8 -2.0 -2.0
1 Summary
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Minimum -0.5 1.8 6.3 6.0 -2.5 -2.5
Maximum 3.9 5.0 6.8 7.0 -1.5 -1.0
Median 1.6 2.6 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Consensus 1.5 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
History
11
30 days ago 1.6 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.7
60 days ago 1.7 3.0 6.5 6.3 -2.0 -1.8
90 days ago 2.1 3.5 6.6 6.2 -2.0 -1.9
Peru
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

4
Notes and sources
-4 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú)
and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Peru Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
-8 11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: INEI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

12
8
AGPV 1.9 2.0 - -
Banco de Crédito del Perú 2.0 - 2.0 -
BBVA Banco Continental 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.2 4
BTG Pactual 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5
CABI 2.5 - - -
Capital Economics - - 2.3 3.1 0
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 Peru
Latin America
-4
DuckerFrontier - - 2.4 2.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 2.1 2.4 15 | Inflation | Q1 16 - Q4 20 | in %
12
Peru
HSBC 2.0 2.0 - -
Latin America
IEDEP - CCL 2.1 2.3 - -
IPE 2.2 - - - 9
JPMorgan 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.2
Julius Baer - - 2.0 2.0 6
Macroconsult 2.0 2.0 - -
Rimac Seguros 2.0 - - - 0
S&P Global 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Scotiabank 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.1
Standard Chartered - - 2.2 2.7 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Thorne & Associates 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2
4
UBS 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2
Summary
Minimum 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0
Maximum 2.5 2.7 2.5 3.1
3
Median 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3
Consensus 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3
60 days ago 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4 2
90 days ago 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 Maximum
Additional Forecasts Consensus
Central Bank (Dec. 2019) 2.0 2.0 - - Minimum
IMF (Jan. 2020) 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 1
CAF (Jan. 2020) 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.2 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

4
2
Notes and sources
Maximum
Consensus
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Minimum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP,
1
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.

Peru AGPV 2.25 2.25
Peru
Latin America Latin America Banco de Crédito del Perú 2.00 -
15 12 Barclays Capital 2.00 -
BBVA Banco Continental 2.00 2.00
10 8 Capital Economics 2.25 3.00
Credicorp Capital 2.00 -
HSBC 2.00 2.75
0 0 IEDEP - CCL 2.25 2.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Itaú Unibanco 2.00 2.00
JPMorgan 2.00 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Oxford Economics 2.25 2.75
5 5
Rimac Seguros 2.25 -
4 4
UBS 2.25 2.25
Summary
3 3 Minimum 2.00 2.00
Maximum 2.25 3.25
Median 2.25 2.63
2 2 Maximum Consensus 2.14 2.59
Maximum
Consensus Consensus History
Minimum Minimum 30 days ago 2.15 2.62
1 1 60 days ago 2.13 2.75
90 days ago 2.31 2.95
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution
60%
40%
20%
0%
<1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 >3.00
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
18 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
3.6 3.40 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
AGPV 3.30 3.40
Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.35 -
3.35 Barclays Capital 3.50 3.61
3.2 BBVA Banco Continental 3.35 3.34
3.30 Capital Economics 3.30 3.20
2.8 Credicorp Capital 3.35 -
3.25 EIU 3.32 3.26
HSBC 3.40 -
2.4 3.20 IEDEP - CCL 3.38 3.40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Itaú Unibanco 3.35 3.36
JPMorgan 3.42 -
25 | PEN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | PEN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Macroconsult 3.30 -
4.0 4.0
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Pezco Economics 3.30 3.40
Minimum Minimum Rimac Seguros 3.33 -
3.6 3.6
UBS 3.40 3.40
Summary
3.2 3.2 Minimum 3.30 3.20
Maximum 3.50 3.61
Median 3.35 3.37
Consensus 3.36 3.37
2.8 2.8 History
30 days ago 3.37 3.38
60 days ago 3.39 3.38
27 | PEN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution 90 days ago 3.39 3.38
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 >3.80
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Peru
AGPV - - 5.0 4.0 3
Banco de Crédito del Perú -2.2 - - -
BBVA Banco Continental -1.7 -2.0 6.3 6.1
0
BTG Pactual -1.7 -1.6 6.1 6.7
CABI - - 8.3 -
-3
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.1 -1.9 - -
Credicorp Capital -2.2 - - -
DekaBank -1.7 -1.4 - -
EIU -1.7 -1.4 6.0 7.2 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. -1.6 -1.6 5.3 5.1
Goldman Sachs -2.2 -1.9 5.1 5.7
HSBC -1.5 -1.4 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
IEDEP - CCL -1.9 -2.1 3.2 2.8
-1.0
IPE -2.0 - 7.0 -
Itaú Unibanco -1.7 -1.8 - -
JPMorgan -1.8 -2.1 6.4 6.2
Macroconsult -0.9 -0.7 6.0 6.2
-1.5
Oxford Economics -2.2 -2.1 6.1 6.6
Rimac Seguros -1.7 - - -
Scotiabank -1.8 -1.6 5.6 6.1
Standard Chartered -2.2 -2.5 - - -2.0
UBS -1.7 -1.6 4.3 6.6
Summary 2020 2021
Minimum -2.5 -2.6 3.2 2.8
Maximum -0.9 -0.7 8.3 8.2 -2.5
Median -1.9 -1.9 6.0 6.1 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
Consensus -1.9 -1.8 5.8 5.9
History
30 days ago -1.9 -1.8 5.6 5.8 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
60 days ago -2.0 -1.9 5.5 5.9
75
90 days ago -2.0 -1.9 5.6 5.8 Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
50
25
-25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2020 2021
Notes and sources

6
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
28 Current account balance as % of GDP.


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 47.0 47.0 42.0 43.0
Barclays Capital 49.2 50.2 43.9 45.7 30
BBVA Banco Continental 48.7 50.0 42.4 43.9
BTG Pactual 48.2 50.5 42.1 43.8
CABI 53.1 - 44.8 -
EIU 48.9 53.5 42.9 46.3
0
Euromonitor Int. 47.4 49.1 42.1 43.9
Goldman Sachs 49.1 51.9 44.0 46.2
IEDEP - CCL 48.7 49.6 45.5 46.8
IPE 50.7 - 43.7 - -30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 48.4 49.8 42.0 43.6
Macroconsult 48.1 49.7 42.1 43.5
Scotiabank 48.9 51.4 43.3 45.3 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 47.0 50.8 42.7 44.2
60
Summary
Minimum 47.0 47.0 42.0 43.0
Maximum 53.1 55.2 45.5 47.0
Median 48.8 50.3 43.1 44.8
Consensus 49.0 50.9 43.2 45.0 56
History
30 days ago 48.7 50.7 43.1 44.9
60 days ago 49.1 51.6 43.6 45.7
90 days ago 50.0 53.2 44.4 47.4 52
2020 2021
48
60
Peru
Latin America
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
52
48
Notes and sources

44
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 74.0 78.0 - - 20
Banco de Crédito del Perú 69.0 - 81.6 -
Barclays Capital 71.3 70.0 81.8 84.8 15
EIU 73.9 76.6 - -
Euromonitor Int. 71.9 75.1 - - 10
Goldman Sachs 69.8 70.2 86.0 91.7 5
HSBC 72.7 - - -
JPMorgan 70.4 72.0 - - 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Scotiabank 69.9 71.0 - -
UBS 66.7 66.5 80.2 83.6
Summary
Minimum 66.7 66.5 80.2 83.6 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Maximum 74.0 78.0 86.0 91.7
90
Median 70.4 71.5 81.6 84.8
Consensus 70.8 72.6 82.2 86.7 2020 2021
History
30 days ago 70.2 71.7 82.7 86.0
80
60 days ago 69.3 71.6 82.2 85.9
90 days ago 68.0 71.3 81.5 83.3
70
60
60
Peru
Latin America
50
40
30
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
105
2020 2021
95
Notes and sources

85

Fact Sheet
General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m) Peru Peru
Trujillo (0.8m) 5.4% 4.3%
Area (km2): 1,285,216
19.4%
22.8%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.9
Brazil
Colombia
6.3%
Brazil
36.1%
Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Argentina
10.4%
Aymara Colombia
8.4%
Measures: Metric system
Mexico
Time: GMT-5 20.9%
Mexico
23.4%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1099 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
0 0
Airports: 191
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani
Other Other 9.2%

Political Data 15.5% U.S.A. Brazil

U.S.A.
18.2% 5.6% 19.6%
President: Martín Vizcarra

Last elections: 10 April 2016 LatAm

Next elections: April 2021 13.7%
Exports EU-27 Other Imports EU-27
LatAm
Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores
15.1%
20.2% 12.1%

Korea

6.0%

Other Asia
Other Asia
ex-Japan
ex-Japan
6.3%
10.1%
China
China
23.3%

Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable
Other Other
1.2% 2.3%
Manufact.
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
Products
13.2%
11.6%
25.0%
Mineral
• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy Fuels
resources • Inadequate infrastructure 12.0%
Exports
Imports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
Mineral

• Strong growth potential prices Fuels

8.7%
Ores &
Manufact.
. . Metals
Products
52.0%
74.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Venezuela February 2020
Venezuela
Venezuela
Outlook improves
• The economy continued to languish in the final quarter of last year,
although seemed to contract at a less severe rate. Oil production appeared
to bottom out in Q4 after having fallen by more than 40% since the start
of 2019 as U.S. sanctions and power outages choked the vital industry. In
an attempt to revive the sector, the government indicated that it intends to
offer majority shares and control of its oil industry to foreign corporations.
In late January, officials held talks with Repsol, Eni and Rosneft to shape
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages a deal which would grant government-owned oil property and restructure
2013-15 2016-18 2019-21
some of PDVSA’s debt in exchange for assets. Meanwhile, the increasing
Population (million): 30.2 29.9 26.1 dollarization of the economy has reportedly somewhat stabilized prices,
GDP (USD bn): 257 174 66
incentivized private sector activity and slowed emigration, with authorities
GDP growth (%): -3.0 -17.5 -15.4 introducing a VAT on U.S. dollar transactions to tap into new sources of
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -10.1 -18.3 -16.2 government revenue.
Inflation (%): 71.7 2,221 42,207
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.4 4.8 6.9 • The economy is likely to shrink for the seventh year running in 2020,
although the rate of contraction should ease as softer government
Nicolas J. Aguilar regulation supports household spending. Moreover, the privatization of
Economist oil assets should shore up fixed investment, while oil production looks
set to stabilize at current levels. Additional U.S. sanctions pose downside
risks to the outlook. As it stands, the LatinFocus Consensus projects the
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts economy to contract 10.9% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points
0 6
from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the panel sees GDP shrinking 1.8%.
-10
0 • Inflation eased to 9,585% in December (November: 14,291%), marking a
19-month low. The Central Bank’s contractionary policy and liberalization
-20
of FX controls earlier in 2019 helped contain hyperinflation to a certain
-6
-30
degree. However, price pressures remain sky-high, thus decimating
2020 2021 households’ purchasing power. Our panel sees inflation at 2,862% by the
-40 -12 end of 2020 and at 1,112% by the end of 2021.
Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • The bolivar continued to depreciate at the start of the year, as Venezuela’s
economy continues to dollarize. On 14 February, the VES ended the day
at 75,272 per USD, while the parallel market rate came in at 73,393
Oil Production Oil Price
VES per USD. The Central Bank’s decision in May 2019 to authorize the
2.5 120
functioning of “exchange tables” run by banks has helped reduce the gap
90
between the official and parallel market exchange rate to some extent.
2.0
Our panelists project the official rate to end 2020 at 534,501 VES per
1.5 60
USD.
1.0 30
0.5 0
Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oil production, millions of barrels Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
per day.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases to near two-year low in December

amid rapid dollarization of the economy
Inflation | Consumer Price Index National consumer prices rose 31.5% from the previous month in December,
200 400,000 up from November’s 25.7% month-on-month increase, according to data
Monthly (left scale) released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 4 February. Despite
Annual (right scale)
the acceleration, the economy seemingly escaped hyperinflation in the fourth
150 300,000
quarter of last year—as defined by monthly price increases of over 50%.
% %
December’s pick-up reflected faster price increases for food and non-alcoholic
100 200,000
beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and restaurants and hotels.
50 100,000
Inflation receded to 9,585% in December (November: 14,291%), marking the
lowest print since May 2018. In addition to aggressively tightening the amount
0
0 of bolivars that circulate in the economy, authorities also rolled back stringent
price controls and liberalized foreign exchange transactions last year, which,
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). coupled with a rapid dollarization of the economy, have helped quell price
pressures. Meanwhile, annual average inflation stood at 19,906%, down from
30,496% in November.
Our panel expects inflation to end 2020 at 2,862%, before falling to 1,112%
by the end of 2021.

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real Sector
Population (million) 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.3 28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8
GDP per capita (USD) 7,870 7,030 10,568 9,092 4,755 3,411 2,871 2,376 2,340
GDP (USD bn) 234 212 324 279 144 98 79 62 58
GDP (VES bn) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.28 2.01 - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 37 35 165 250 615 - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 -3.9 -6.2 -17.0 -15.7 -19.6 -30.9 -10.9 -1.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -1.9 -8.8 -11.8 -26.3 -21.1 -18.2 -29.6 -11.6 -0.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 -3.4 -8.9 -19.4 -16.2 -20.1 -30.2 -11.7 -0.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 0.6 -3.2 -14.7 -7.2 -9.1 -23.9 -11.0 -3.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.0 -16.9 -20.4 -45.1 -45.3 -37.5 -37.0 -15.3 -0.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.2 -4.7 -0.9 -11.7 0.0 -10.8 -25.4 -6.2 2.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -9.7 -18.5 -23.1 -50.1 -34.7 0.3 -23.5 -3.1 6.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.3 7.2 6.9 20.5 29.8 26.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -12.9 -15.6 -16.8 -18.2 -20.0 -21.0 -16.5 -11.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 31.3 28.5 74.7 92.3 119.9 132.8 167.2 183.5 155.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 70 64 101 159 1,121 63,257 4,946 7,946 7,056
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 56 69 181 274 863 130,060 9,585 2,862 1,112
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 41 62 122 255 438 65,374 143,099 24,492 21,403
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.74 14.84 14.59 14.62 14.77 15.00 24.00 - -
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 480 41 278 117 3,884 126,985 5,521 - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 6.3 6.3 6.3 10.0 10.0 638 46,621 534,501 -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 6.1 6.3 6.3 9.3 10.0 81.9 15,910 284,344 -
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 62.3 170 833 3,165 111,413 730 54,703 665,699 -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 2.3 -5.6 -0.4 6.1 8.7 7.8 7.4 5.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4.6 4.9 -16.1 -3.9 8.7 8.6 6.2 4.5 3.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 31.6 27.4 3.9 11.0 22.0 20.9 14.7 11.8 10.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 88.8 74.7 37.2 27.4 34.0 33.7 24.0 21.0 20.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 57.2 47.3 33.3 16.4 12.0 12.8 9.3 9.2 9.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -9.3 -15.9 -50.1 -26.4 24.2 -1.0 -28.7 -12.6 -1.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -13.3 -17.4 -29.5 -50.9 -26.6 6.5 -27.2 -1.1 7.6
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 98.8 88.4 44.7 35.2 46.7 63.6 57.8 53.9 53.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 -1.0 0.8 1.1 -0.1 1.0 - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 21.5 22.1 16.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 7.5 7.1 8.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.6 5.9 8.1 9.6 8.3 9.6 9.2 9.7
External Debt (USD bn) 122 120 125 128 113 111 121 118 117
External Debt (% of GDP) 52.1 56.7 38.6 45.7 78.7 112.9 153.0 191.5 201.8
Quarterly Data Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -20.2 -26.8 -35.4 -30.2 -25.5 -21.1 -7.6 -7.2 -5.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 130,060 329,568 116,436 39,114 9,585 3,786 3,020 2,936 2,862
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 638 3,294 6,733 20,746 46,621 110,704 224,431 511,681 534,501
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 140 2,589 5,143 14,510 31,370 78,662 167,567 368,056 523,091
Monthly Data May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 52,346 40,589 28,486 19,364 10,535 9,500 7,616 9,854 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 39.5 22.1 19.4 34.6 52.2 22.6 25.7 31.5 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 187,635 116,436 76,597 58,561 39,114 25,450 14,291 9,585 -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 5,888 6,733 11,264 22,187 20,746 23,403 38,981 46,621 74,990
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 6,347 7,880 12,610 25,950 21,299 24,754 41,594 54,703 75,016
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 63.9 56.6 59.8 54.8 56.9 57.4 51.1 55.4 55.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.76 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.64 0.69 0.72 0.73 0.73
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.5 6.8
Notes:
1. On 20 August 2018, authorities overhauled the currency by removing five zeroes from the Bolívar Fuerte (VEF) and renaming it as the Bolívar Soberano (VES).
Exchange rate historical data through 2017 are expressed in VEF. Historical data and forecasts for 2018 onwards are expressed in VES.
2. Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela and the limited availability of official data, it has become extremely difficult to compute adequate forecasts,
particularly for the long term. Therefore, FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the 2021-2023 period temporarily. We hope to resume providing
these forecasts once reliable data becomes available.
3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

AGPV 0.0 0.2
0
Andes Investments -12.6 -4.4
Capital Economics -10.0 10.0
0 DekaBank -20.5 -5.6
-10 Dinámica Venezuela -14.5 -7.8
DuckerFrontier -10.0 -4.0
-20 Ecoanalítica -10.8 7.4
-20 Econométrica -7.3 -
Venezuela
EIU -20.5 -5.6
-30 Euromonitor Int. -9.7 -5.0
Latin America Venezuela
World Latin America Goldman Sachs -10.0 -
World
-40 -40 Julius Baer -11.0 -3.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Moody's Analytics -5.6 4.5
Novo Banco -10.0 -5.0
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Oxford Economics -12.4 0.7
Polinomics -10.0 -7.0
30 45 Torino Capital -11.1 0.7
UBS -10.0 -5.0
30 Summary
15 Minimum -20.5 -7.8
Maximum 0.0 10.0
15
Median -10.0 -4.2
0 Consensus -10.9 -1.8
0 History
30 days ago -10.4 -1.5
-15 Consensus Consensus
-15
60 days ago -8.4 0.7
Maximum
Maximum 90 days ago -7.5 2.1
Minimum
Minimum Additional Forecasts
-30 -30 IMF (Jan. 2020) -10.0 -5.0
CEPAL (Jan. 2020) -14.0 -
5 | Consumption | variation in % 6 | Investment | variation in %
20 60
Venezuela
Latin America
30
0

-30
Venezuela General:
Latin America Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. The
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data
-40 -60 are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela), Statistical
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística) and Economy and Finance
Ministry (Mppbf, Ministerio del Poder Popular de Economía y Finanzas).
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of fcst
Source: BCV
14 40
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last
20
18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the
0 last 18 months.
9 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE
10 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP. Source:
0
Mppbf
-7 11 Public debt % of GDP. Source: Mppbf
12 Unemployment, % of active population, evolution of 2020 and 2021
2020 2021 2020 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP, evolution of
-14 -20
2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
14 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during
the last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
variation in % variation in % % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV - - - - -10.0 -10.0 160.0 150.0
Andes Investments -12.3 -4.0 -16.4 -6.0 -18.1 -12.0 167.0 151.3
Capital Economics - - - - -30.0 -20.0 280.0 300.0
DekaBank - - - - -5.3 -4.7 - -
Dinámica Venezuela -16.8 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 - - - -
DuckerFrontier -8.0 -0.5 - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica -12.7 10.5 -12.0 16.9 - - - -
Econométrica -6.4 - - - - - - -
EIU -23.5 -6.2 -5.0 -5.0 -5.3 -4.7 225.4 43.3
Euromonitor Int. -13.1 -5.2 - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs - - - - -31.1 - - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics -6.3 5.1 2.1 17.3 -13.2 -11.2 - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics -14.1 1.0 -12.9 9.3 -13.8 -8.3 262.9 243.3
Polinomics - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital -4.1 5.2 -4.5 -5.2 - - 90.4 94.1
UBS - - - - -22.0 -18.0 98.7 103.6
Summary
Minimum -23.5 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 -31.1 -20.0 90.4 43.3
Maximum -4.1 10.5 2.1 17.3 -5.3 -4.7 280.0 300.0
Median -12.5 -0.5 -12.0 -5.0 -13.8 -10.6 167.0 150.0
Consensus -11.7 -0.4 -15.3 -0.8 -16.5 -11.1 183.5 155.1
History
30 days ago -11.1 -0.4 -13.8 -1.6 -16.3 -13.5 184.1 156.8
60 days ago -9.9 3.5 -10.6 36.1 -21.0 -15.9 224.7 188.2
90 days ago -9.6 3.6 -9.5 35.6 -20.6 -12.1 213.6 186.5
9 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 10 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 11 | Public Debt | % of GDP
35 10 200
Venezuela
Latin America
0 150
25
-10 100
15
-20 50
Venezuela
Latin America
5 -30 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
12 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts 13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts 14 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
30 -5 240
2020 2021
-10 200
25
-15 160
20
-20 120
2020 2021 2020 2021
15 -25 80
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

Monetary Sector | Additional Forecasts
Money Supply and Inflation 15 | Money Supply | variation in %

Money Supply Consumer Prices
80,000
AGPV 792 705 3,255 2,333
60,000
Andes Investments 34,075 36,700 - -
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank - - - -
40,000
Dinámica Venezuela - - - -
DuckerFrontier - - - -
Ecoanalítica 1,619 219 2,717 183
20,000
Econométrica - - - -
EIU 2,678 422 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
0
Goldman Sachs - - - - 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - 2,793 702
Novo Banco - - - - 16 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
Oxford Economics 2,979 1,376 2,028 463 400
Polinomics - - 2,000 1,300
Torino Capital 5,533 2,912 4,378 1,692
UBS - - - - 300
Summary
Minimum 792 219 2,000 183
Maximum 34,075 36,700 4,378 2,333
200
Median 2,828 1,040 2,755 1,001
Consensus 7,946 7,056 2,862 1,112
History
30 days ago 27,538 42,606 121,400 143,925 100
60 days ago 78,088 50,474 133,015 143,753

90 days ago 64,851 584 63,520 762
0
Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20
17 | Current Account | USD bn

40
25
10
-5
-20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
18 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Notes and sources 2020 2021
4
Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-of-period and average-of-
period projections. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2
15 Money supply M2, annual variation in %.
16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (eop), in thousands.
17 Current account balance in USD bn.
18 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
20 Imports, annual variation in %.
22 Exports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -2
23 Imports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
24 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Current Account, Trade Balance and International Reserves
Current
Current Account, Trade Balance andAccount
Oil Price Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV 4.0 4.0 16.0 16.0 30.0 30.0 14.0 14.0 7.5 7.5
Andes Investments 6.9 5.4 8.4 8.0 20.2 21.0 11.8 13.0 7.6 8.4
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
DekaBank 2.0 4.3 - - - - - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 1.2 -0.6 13.3 8.7 23.7 20.4 10.4 11.7 7.0 6.1
DuckerFrontier - - - - - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica 8.6 -3.7 11.5 12.8 17.1 20.2 5.6 7.4 7.1 16.5
Econométrica - - - - - - - - - -
EIU 1.3 2.3 6.2 6.3 14.6 14.5 8.4 8.2 6.9 6.3
Euromonitor Int. 5.4 4.6 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.3
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics 5.5 6.0 - - - - - - - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics 6.5 6.3 7.4 7.7 14.2 14.8 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.5
Polinomics - - - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital 6.8 4.7 11.3 9.0 21.8 22.6 10.5 13.6 6.5 6.6
UBS 1.8 1.8 8.4 5.0 15.4 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Summary
Minimum 1.2 -3.7 6.2 5.0 14.2 12.0 5.6 7.0 6.3 5.3
Maximum 8.6 6.3 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 14.0 14.0 7.6 16.5
Median 5.4 4.3 11.3 8.7 20.2 20.4 8.4 8.2 7.0 7.0
Consensus 4.5 3.2 11.8 10.7 21.0 20.6 9.2 9.9 7.1 8.0
History
30 days ago 4.1 2.3 11.9 11.5 20.9 20.4 9.0 8.9 7.2 8.1
60 days ago 2.9 0.5 9.6 7.4 20.6 19.8 11.0 12.4 8.3 12.8
90 days ago 2.7 0.6 9.5 8.8 21.1 22.3 11.7 13.5 7.9 14.0
19 | Exports | variation in % 20 | Imports | variation in % 21 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
60 75 30
Venezuela Venezuela
Latin America Venezuela
Latin America
Latin America
50
30
20
25
0
0
10
-30
-25
-60 -50 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
22 | Exports | evol. of fcst 23 | Imports | evol. of fcst 24 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
40 20 18
2020 2021
2020 2021 2020 2021
32 16 14
24 12 10
16 8 6
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

Fact Sheet
General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Venezuela
Capital: Caracas (2.9m) Venezuela Venezuela
4.6% 1.9%
Other cities: Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2): 912,050 Other Other
23.3%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 28.9 26.9%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 31.6 Brazil

Brazil
35.5%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.2 Colombia

6.3%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Colombia
Argentina
10.2%
Measures: Metric system 8.0%
Mexico Mexico
Time: GMT-4.30 20.0% 23.0%
Economic Structure
Communications (2017)
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
0 -30
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo
Political Data Other

16.7%
Other
President: Nicolás Maduro Moros 28.8% U.S.A.
34.9%
Last elections: 20 May 2018 LatAm U.S.A.
7.8% 42.2%
Next elections: 2023 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez Singapore
6.4%

Argentina
5.5%

China
Brazil
China
10.9%
6.1%
5.8%
Mexico
Other
India LatAm
8.8% 10.2%

Moody’s: C Stable
S&P Global Ratings: SD N.M. Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: WD -

Other Other

Food
16.6%
8.8%

• Largest proven oil reserves in • Dependence on oil
the world • Deep political polarization
Exports
• Abundant wealth in natural • Runaway inflation Imports
resources • Exchange rate misalignments
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
87.9% Products
74.6%
*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Bolivia February 2020
Bolivia
Bolivia
Outlook moderates
• Economic growth slumped to 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of
2019 (Q2: +2.8% year-on-year), marking the weakest expansion in over
a decade. A sharp contraction of the mining and quarrying sector, which
saw output in the key oil and gas industry decline for the sixth consecutive
quarter, led the slowdown. In turn, this took a toll on the external sector,
as reflected by yet another fall in exports in the quarter. Domestically,
although fixed investment rebounded solidly, private consumption growth,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages which has long been the engine of activity, ebbed to a two-and-a-half-
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
year low—weighing on the overall upturn. Meanwhile in politics, Luis Arce,
Population (million): 11.2 11.7 12.3 former President Evo Morales’ economy minister and candidate for his
GDP (USD bn): 37.3 44.2 50.1
Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, is leading the polls ahead of the 3
GDP growth (%): 4.2 3.0 3.4 May election against a divided opposition, which includes the candidacy
Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.5 60.1 63.5 of interim President Jeanine Áñez. However, Arce’s lead is not large
Inflation (%): 2.9 2.5 3.6 enough to avoid a second run-off vote.
Current Account (% of GDP): -5.1 -4.9 -3.4
• The economy is poised to maintain a solid pace of expansion this year,
Javier Colato
Economist buttressed by robust household spending and a recovery in exports.
That said, subdued foreign demand for natural gas, political and policy
uncertainty, declining international reserves and the country’s large twin
deficits are key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists
9 4.0
project growth of 3.1% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from
Bolivia
Latin America last month’s estimate, and 3.1% again in 2021.
World 3.8
6
3.6
• Inflation slipped from 1.5% in December to 1.2% in January, the lowest
3 reading in 10 months. A stable currency, propped up by the country’s
3.4
managed foreign exchange system, has contained inflation for over a
0
3.2
decade. Inflation is expected to pick up ahead, partly driven by demand-
2020 2021 side pressures. Our panel forecasts inflation will end 2020 at 2.6% and
-3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
3.0
2021 at 3.0%.
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
Source: INE. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 4.3
Bolivia
Latin America
3.8
10
3.3
5
2.8
2020 2021
0 2.3
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
annual variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: INE.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 33.1 34.1 37.5 40.3 42.1 44.2 46.2 48.2 50.0 52.2
GDP (BOB bn) 228 235 259 278 291 308 326 348 372 400
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.4 11.8 3.2 -0.7 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -5.9 -5.7 -5.0 5.2 -2.6 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 16.3 -3.9 8.2 5.4 -5.8 - - - - -
Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop) 8.07 7.95 8.11 8.04 8.87 8.86 8.81 8.75 8.72 -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.90 6.93 6.91 6.91 6.91 7.00 7.12 7.33 7.55 7.76
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.90 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.96 7.06 7.23 7.44 7.65
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -8.3 -12.6 8.7 8.5 1.5 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1
External Debt (USD bn) 9.9 11.0 13.0 13.3 14.6 15.8 17.0 18.5 20.1 21.8
0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
5 8.2 15
10
7.7
0
5
7.2
0
-5
6.7
Bolivia -5
Bolivia
Latin America
Latin America
-10 6.2 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Refinitiv. See below for details. Forecasts
1 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

Fact Sheet
General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Bolivia Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m) 1.9% 0.5%
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)

Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581 Other Other
26.3% 23.0%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 11.4
Brazil Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 10.4 35.0% 36.1%
Colombia
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 69.8 Argentina
6.4%

Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Colombia 10.4%
Aymara 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Measures: Metric system 20.9% 23.4%
Time: GMT-4
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99.2 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
Manufacturing
60
Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 306

40 Other Industry 30 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 7.8 Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.4

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 90.0 20
Services
0 Private
Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 17.7
0 -30
Airports: 855
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre
Japan
Other 7.0% U.S.A.
Political Data 11.0%
U.S.A.
5.3%
Other 5.3%
15.1%
Colombia EU-27
Australia
President: Jeanine Añez* 5.8% 5.1%

13.8%
Peru
Last elections: 20 October 2019
EU-27 6.1%

5.7% Other Asia

Next elections: 3 May 2020 ex-Japan
Argentina Exports Argentina
Imports 8.2%
Central Bank President: Guillermo Aponte 17.2% India
8.7%
7.0%
*Interim president since 12 November China

5.2%
Brazil
16.6%
China
Other 21.8%

Brazil LatAm
18.6% Other
10.3%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings LatAm
6.1%

Moody’s: Ba3 RUR
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B+ Negative Other Other
0.5% 1.4%
Manufact.
Products Food
5.0% 8.0%
Strengths Weaknesses Food
18.7% Mineral
Fuels
• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country
10.5%
Ores &
• Improving currency autonomy • Highly dependent on the Metals
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector Exports 34.1%
Imports
• Elevated levels of poverty
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
41.6% Products
80.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Ecuador February 2020
Ecuador
Outlook stable
Ecuador
• Available data suggests that the economy remained subdued in the final
quarter of 2019, after it shrank for the first time in three years in the
third quarter on falling domestic demand. Economic activity contracted,
on average, at a faster clip in October–November compared to Q3,
while credit growth eased in Q4, hinting that household spending and
fixed investment likely faltered. In other news, on 6 February Moody’s
downgraded the country’s credit rating from B3 to Caa1. Political and
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages social resistance has slowed the government’s implementation of IMF-
backed fiscal policy reforms, constraining investor demand for public
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 16.8 17.5 18.3 debt ahead of the government’s heavy repayment schedule starting in
GDP (USD bn): 103.9 109.0 118.8 2022. However, the agency changed the outlook from negative to stable
GDP growth (%): 0.8 0.3 2.2
as risks to debt repayments are expected to remain contained before
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.3 -0.5 -0.1 2022.
Public Debt (% of GDP) 42.9 46.5 40.1
Inflation (%): 0.6 0.6 1.6
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 • Growth is expected to rebound mildly this year as fixed investment
External Debt (% of GDP): 37.9 50.6 54.2 recovers on the back of improving business conditions. However, political
uncertainty ahead of next year’s elections and the risk of protests and
strikes as the government attempts to reduce its wage bill are key threats
to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy growing
0.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and see
growth accelerating to 0.9% in 2021.
• Consumer prices decreased 0.3% year-on-year in January, following

December’s 0.1% fall. Going forward, price pressures are seen picking
up as economic activity recovers. FocusEconomics panelists project
inflation to end 2020 and 2021 at 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity contracts in November

Hanna Andersson
Economist In November, economic activity fell 0.3% over the same month of 2018,
according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC) released by the
Economic Activity | variation in % Central Bank of Ecuador. The result was above October’s contraction of 0.6%,
4 which had marked the worst reading in over three years.
3
In month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity rose 0.4%
2
in November after coming in flat in October. Meanwhile, annual average
% growth in economic activity inched down to 0.5% from 0.8% in October.
1
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project the

0
economy to grow 0.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s
Year-on-year Annual Average
estimate. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 0.9%.
-1
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity

in %.
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and FocusEconomics
calculations.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices fall for second month straight
0.8 1.2
in January
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in January, following
December’s flat reading. January’s print largely reflected higher prices for
0.4 0.6
food and non-alcoholic beverages.
% %
0.0 0.0
Meanwhile, consumer prices fell 0.3% in January, following December’s 0.1%
decrease. Lastly, the annual average variation in consumer prices declined
-0.4 -0.6
0.3% in January, contrasting December’s 0.3 increase.
-0.8 -1.2 Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see inflation
ending 2020 at 0.6%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %. estimate. The panel projects inflation ending 2021 at 1.0%.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 99.3 99.9 104.3 107.6 107.7 108.6 110.8 114.1 118.4 123.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) -2.4 0.7 4.4 3.1 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.0 3.8 4.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -1.2 2.4 1.3 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.2 -4.3 5.5 2.2 -0.5 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 -2.4 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -0.2 3.2 3.5 -2.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.2 -8.9 5.3 2.0 -1.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 1.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
Industry (ann. var. %) -0.5 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.8 5.2 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -7.3 -4.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.4 1.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.0 1.7 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.14 5.12 4.95 5.62 6.22 5.27 5.15 5.54 5.84 -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.2 1.3 -0.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.6 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq var. %) 0.8 0.0 -0.6 0.4 0.1 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 - - - -
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 39.07 37.94 38.00 37.63 38.24 36.98 37.03 37.64 37.24 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 15-Q4 19 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 6 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
3 AGPV 0.0 0.0 - -
5
CABI 1.0 - -0.3 -
0
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.7 1.0 -0.5 0.0
0 EIU 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.5
-3 Euromonitor Int. 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.6
Ecuador Ecuador Fitch Solutions 0.3 2.4 -2.6 -1.6
Latin America Latin America Goldman Sachs - - - -
World World
-5 -6 Humboldt Management 0.7 - - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 JPMorgan -0.9 -0.4 - -
Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0 -0.5 0.3
Torino Capital 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Summary
3 3
Minimum -0.9 -0.4 -2.6 -1.6
Maximum
Consensus
Maximum 1.0 2.4 0.7 1.1
Minimum Median 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.4
2 2 Consensus 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.2
History
30 days ago 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.7
1 1
60 days ago 0.5 1.3 -0.1 0.4
90 days ago 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.3
0 0 Additional Forecasts
IMF (Dec. 2019) 0.2 1.6 - -
World Bank (Jan. 2020) 0.2 0.8 - -
-1 -1 Maximum
CEPAL (Dec. 2019) 0.1 -
Consensus
Minimum
-2 -2
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 5
Ecuador
Latin America
9 0
6 -5
Ecuador
Latin America
3 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
5.3 2 General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The
2020 2021 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and
5.1 the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
0 Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

4.9 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCE.
-2 3 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4.7 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
2020 2021 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
-4 months.
4.5
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 15-Q4 19 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account
100 12 CPI Current Account

Ecuador variation in % % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
75 AGPV - - - -
8
50 CABI 1.0 - - -
Capital Economics - - 0.0 -0.5
4
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2
25 DuckerFrontier - - - -
EIU 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.1
0 Euromonitor Int. - - 0.0 -0.1
0
Ecuador Fitch Solutions 0.7 1.5 -1.6 -1.8
Latin America Goldman Sachs - - - -
-25 -4 Humboldt Management 1.0 - -0.2 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 JPMorgan 0.2 0.5 -1.0 -0.5
Oxford Economics 0.3 1.2 -0.8 -0.7
Torino Capital 1.1 1.0 -0.8 0.7
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst Summary
4
Minimum -0.1 0.4 -1.6 -1.8
4
Maximum 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.7
Median 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.1
Consensus 0.6 1.0 -0.3 -0.2
History
2 2 30 days ago 0.8 1.2 -0.5 -0.6
60 days ago 0.7 1.2 -0.8 -0.9
90 days ago 0.7 1.4 -0.3 -0.8
0 0 IMF (Dec. 2019) 0.9 1.2 - -
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
-2 -2
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD bn
6 30
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
3 20
0 10
-3 0
Ecuador
Latin America
-6 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Notes and sources
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst General:

0.5 0.8 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
2020 2021
external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del
Ecuador) and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
0.0 0.0
Source: INEC.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INEC.
-0.5 -0.8 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: BCE.
2020 2021
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
-1.0 -1.5 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 16 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m) Ecuador
2.9% Ecuador
Cuenca (0.3m) 2.1%
Area (km2): 283,561

21.7%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 60.0 25.4%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 1.3 Brazil Brazil

35.0% 36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.1 Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 5.6 Argentina
6.4%
Language: Spanish, Quechua 7.5%

Argentina
Measures: Metric system Colombia 10.4%
Time: GMT-5 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 23.4%
Economic Structure
100 110
80
80
Energy (2016)
60
50
Government
Consumption
20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 259 20 Private
Services
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta
Other

8.0%
Political Data Colombia
Other

Colombia
5.7%
5.0%
7.7%
President: Lenín Moreno Garcés Peru U.S.A. U.S.A.
6.8% 36.5% 31.1%
Last elections: 2 April 2017
Next elections: 28 February 2021 Panama
7.7%
Exports
Other
LatAm Imports
Central Bank Governor: Verónica Artola Jarrín 19.6%
Other
LatAm

9.1%
EU-27
China
11.8%
Asia ex- EU-27 15.5%
Japan Other Asia
13.1%
ex-Japan
8.6%

Moody’s: Caa1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B- Stable
Manufact.
Other Other
Products Food
7.1%

9.8% 3.0%
Mineral
Fuels
• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to 11.3%
• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks

• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
Food Exports Mineral Imports
50.1% Fuels
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports 35.8%
Manufact.
Agric. Products
Raw Mat. 76.0%
5.8%
ç

FOCUSECONOMICS Paraguay February 2020
Paraguay
Paraguay
Outlook stable
• The economy bounced back in the third quarter of 2019, after contracting
in the first half of the year. Quickening private consumption and a rebound
in exports spearheaded the recovery. Turning to the fourth quarter of
last year, growth seemingly sustained its momentum. Economic activity
accelerated in October–November from Q3; private consumption likely
benefited from low inflation, as hinted by upbeat retail sales in the quarter.
That said, the external sector appeared to weigh on overall growth in Q4
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages given the plunge in merchandise exports amid declining sales of electricity
and soybeans. In other news, the country signed a trade agreement with
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 7.0 7.3 7.6 Brazil on 11 February. The deal removes excises for textiles and goods
GDP (USD bn): 38.4 39.6 45.9
linked to the car industry and is seen boosting trade ahead.
GDP growth (%): 4.2 2.4 4.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
-1.2
18.6
-2.1
24.3
-1.4
24.5 • Economic growth is expected to gather momentum this year on broad-
Inflation (%): 3.9 3.4 3.9 based improvements. Private consumption should pick up and fixed
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.2 -0.5 0.1
External Debt (% of GDP): 41.7 44.0 42.1 investment is seen recovering as supply shocks in the agriculture and
utilities sectors subside. In addition, exports are seen rebounding as soy
Nicolas J. Aguilar
Economist production recovers. Regional volatility and weather-related shocks cloud
the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 3.4% in 2020,
which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2021.

15 4.4 • In January, inflation was stable at December’s 2.8%, thus remaining
Paraguay
Latin America below the Central Bank’s target of 4.0%. Low inflation and the recovery
World
10 in economic activity in the second half of 2019 prompted the Bank to
4.0
leave the monetary policy rate at 4.00% at its 23 January meeting. Going
5 forward, price pressures are expected to pick up. FocusEconomics
3.6
panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 3.6% and 2021 at 4.0%.
0
2020 2021
-5 3.2
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
Source: BCP. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 4.4
Paraguay
Latin America
4.1
10
3.8
5
3.5
2020 2021
0 3.2
variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: BCP.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 36.1 36.0 38.9 40.4 38.2 39.2 41.4 43.5 45.9 48.4
GDP (PYG bn) 188,231 204,447 219,188 231,489 238,000 254,496 273,642 294,896 318,359 344,291
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -1.9 2.1 6.0 7.1 -8.6 4.2 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.4 1.0 12.0 9.1 -3.2 3.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.8 8.1 16.4 6.1 6.3 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25 4.00 4.13 4.38 4.78 5.16 -
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 5,782 5,848 5,588 5,961 6,453 6,521 6,696 6,852 7,024 7,196
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 5,210 5,683 5,632 5,731 6,238 6,487 6,609 6,774 6,938 7,110
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.4 3.6 3.1 -0.2 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.3 7.9 11.9 2.5 -9.1 4.9 8.2 9.2 9.8 10.3
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.2 7.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.2 8.8 8.5 7.4 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.8 6.4 -
External Debt (USD bn) 16.1 16.2 15.9 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
3 60 10
Paraguay
Latin America
5
0 40
-3 20
-5
Paraguay
Latin America
-6 0 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP,
Banco Central del Paraguay), Ministry of Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda) and Refinitiv. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: MH.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m) Paraguay
Paraguay
1.2%
0.8%
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
23.0%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 17.3 27.0%
Brazil
Brazil
36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.6
Colombia
Language: Spanish, Guaraní Argentina
7.5%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
10.4%
Colombia
Time: GMT-4 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
20.9%
23.4%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2016)
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 51.0
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.7 20 20 Private
Services
Consumption
Transportation (2015) 0 0
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Chief Ports: Asunción
Other
Other EU-27
3.6%
U.S.A.
7.9%
Political Data 6.7% Other

LatAm Argentina

8.8%

Russia
6.4% 12.8%
President: Mario Abdo Benítez
9.1% EU-27
12.8%
Last elections: 22 April 2018 Chile

Asia
Other
Exports Imports ex-Japan
Central Bank President: José Cantero Sienra Brazil
Brazil 6.5%
22.1%
32.0%
Argentina China
29.9% Other 25.8%
LatAm

Moody’s: Ba1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Other Other
2.2% 1.8%
Manufact. Food
Strengths Weaknesses Products 8.9%
10.2%
Mineral
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price Fuels
12.5%
agriculture swings
Mineral
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Fuels Imports
25.2%
reforms economies Food
• Stable source of income from 62.4%

hydroelectric dams
Manufact.
Products
76.9%

FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay February 2020
Uruguay
Outlook stable
Uruguay
• The economy bounced back in the third quarter of 2019, after contracting
in the first half of the year. Improved external sector metrics, coupled
with a solid rebound in household spending, drove the recovery. That
said, the pace of expansion was modest overall, restrained by shrinking
infrastructure spending and a marked shedding of agricultural stock.
Turning to the final quarter of last year, activity appears to have remained
subdued according to available indicators. On the external front,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages merchandise export growth slumped in the quarter, likely dragged down
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 by weakness in Argentina’s economy. Moreover, the industrial sector
Population (million): 3.5 3.5 3.6 contracted in the first two months of Q4, boding ill for private sector
GDP (USD bn): 57.4 56.4 63.4
GDP per capita (USD): 16,420 15,968 17,763 activity, although it recovered some strength in December. On the other
GDP growth (%): 2.0 1.4 2.6 hand, the unemployment rate dropped in the final stretch of the year,
Public Debt (% of GDP): 61.9 68.1 68.1 likely boosting consumer spending.
Inflation (%): 7.8 7.7 6.6
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 -0.2 -0.6
• Growth looks set to gain some speed this year, on the back of recovering
domestic demand. An improved business environment, the construction
Massimo Bassetti
of a new paper pulp plant and the government’s plans to boost public-
Economist
private infrastructure projects should buttress fixed investment.
Argentina’s dire economic situation poses a significant downside risk,
however. FocusEconomics analysts see growth accelerating to 1.5% in
2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts seen picking up to 2.1%.
4.5 3.2
2020 2021
• Inflation inched down from December’s over three-year high of 8.8% to
3.0 2.8
8.7% in January, but nonetheless remained entrenched well above the
1.5 2.3
Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. FX pass-through and higher
food prices have kept inflation high as of late. Inflation should ease
0.0 1.9 somewhat ahead but will remain elevated nonetheless, mainly owing to
a depreciating currency. FocusEconomics analysts see inflation ending
-1.5
1.4 2020 at 7.8% and 2021 at 7.3%.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • At its monetary policy meeting on 26 December, the Central Bank lowered
its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q1 to 6.0%–8.0%
from Q4’s target of 7.0%–9.0%, after registering M1 growth of 7.6% in Q4.
At the same time, the Bank maintained its inflation target range for the
Inflation Change in CPI forecasts next 24 months at 3.0%–7.0%. The next meeting is scheduled for April.
11 7.8 FocusEconomics analysts estimate the money supply to increase 8.3%
Uruguay
Latin America in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021.
7.3
9
6.8
• On 14 February, the Uruguayan peso ended the day at 38.1 per USD,
depreciating 2.2% from the same day in January. Downside pressure on
7
6.3 the currency stemming from coronavirus fears were only partly offset by
2020 2021 China’s stimulus efforts. Going ahead, the peso is seen weakening on
5
5.8 low growth and sustained inflation. FocusEconomics panelists project the
UYU to end 2020 at 40.4 per USD and 2021 at 42.6 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production closes 2019 on a hopeful note

Industrial production expanded 3.8% in annual terms in December, contrasting
November’s 1.8% drop. Industrial output excluding refinery output grew 2.6%
24
year-on-year in December, swinging from November’s 4.7% slump. Looking
Year-on-year
Annual average at a breakdown of the sub-components, marked increases in the production
of food and drinks and rubber and plastic products led the overall expansion.
12
% Meanwhile, annual average variation in industrial production improved from

minus 2.5% in November to minus 1.5% in December.
0
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus

Consensus Forecast see industrial production growing 4.2% in 2020, which is
-12
Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2021.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations. Our panellists see GDP expanding 1.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from
last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches down in January

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Consumer prices surged 2.1% from a month earlier in January, following a
4.0 9.0
flat reading in the last month of 2019. A breakdown of the sub-components
provided by the Statistical Institute showed that 10 of the 12 sub-components
saw an increase in prices, led by surging housing prices, one category saw no
2.0 8.0 change while prices for clothing and footwear dipped marginally.
% %
Meanwhile, inflation ticked down to 8.7% in January, from 8.8% in December,
0.0 7.0 which marked the strongest increase since September 2016. Nevertheless,
inflation remained entrenched well above the upper bound of the Central
Month-on-moth (left scale)
Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. Lastly, annual average inflation rose from
-2.0 6.0 7.9% in December to 8.0% in January, the highest reading in over two years
and a half.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and Uruguay Central Bank (BCU). Panellists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project
inflation to end 2020 at 7.8%, which is up 0.2 percentage points, and 2021 at
7.3%.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 54.0 52.1 60.1 59.9 56.3 55.7 57.2 59.9 63.3 66.9
GDP (UYU bn) 1,456 1,589 1,707 1,831 1,983 2,173 2,375 2,596 2,837 3,099
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.4 0.7 2.4 -0.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.5 0.1 4.6 1.5 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.2 -1.6 -15.7 -2.7 -1.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 -0.2 6.9 -4.8 1.6 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.3 -6.2 0.5 -2.0 -0.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.3 -11.1 11.5 -1.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 5.6 8.4 15.0 8.9 5.1 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.7 -
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.8 3.4 1.7 9.7 12.8 9.6 7.8 7.2 6.5 5.9
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 6.94 6.58 5.56 5.30 5.86 6.30 5.50 4.98 4.65 -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 29.9 29.3 28.8 32.4 37.3 40.4 42.6 44.1 45.6 47.1
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.7 35.2 39.0 41.5 43.3 44.8 46.3
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 - - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.8 0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.4 -2.5 -9.9 0.0 4.1 4.3 -7.9 -1.8 3.8 -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 13.8 8.5 9.3 5.6 7.9 11.8 7.4 8.4 5.1 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
8 6 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
4 4 Barclays Capital 2.3 2.5 -3.4 -3.0
BBVA Argentina 1.2 1.8 -3.3 -2.8
Capital Economics 0.3 0.0 -3.3 -3.0
0 2 CINVE 2.7 - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 1.7 -3.0 -2.2
-4 0 EIU 1.5 2.5 -3.3 -3.0
Uruguay Uruguay
Equipos Consultores 1.7 - - -
World
World
-8 -2 Fitch Solutions 1.5 3.1 -3.2 -3.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 HSBC 1.3 - -2.4 -
Iecon - UdelaR 2.0 2.0 -4.0 -3.5
Itaú Unibanco 1.5 2.5 -3.5 -3.2
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts JPMorgan 1.7 1.7 - -
Julius Baer 1.5 2.0 - -
4 4
Moody's Analytics 1.8 2.6 -3.9 -4.2
Oikos 1.0 2.0 - -
3 Oxford Economics 1.3 2.4 -3.2 -2.9
República AFAP 1.6 - - -
2
S&P Global 1.5 2.3 - -
2
Santander 1.5 - - -
Summary
1 Minimum 0.3 0.0 -4.0 -4.2
0 Maximum 2.7 3.1 -2.4 -2.2
Maximum Maximum Median 1.5 2.2 -3.3 -3.0
0
Consensus Consensus Consensus 1.5 2.1 -3.3 -3.1
Minimum
Minimum History
-2 -1 30 days ago 1.5 2.1 -3.2 -3.0
60 days ago 1.4 2.2 -3.3 -3.1
90 days ago 1.5 2.3 -3.2 -3.2
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
World Bank (Jan. 2020) 2.5 3.5 - -
18 0 CEPAL (Dec. 2019) 1.5 - - -
Uruguay IMF (Dec. 2019) 2.1 2.5 - -
Latin America
15
-2
12
-4
9
Uruguay
Latin America
6 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
9.0 -2.5 General:

2020 2021 2020 2021 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
8.5 -2.8 Estadística) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

8.0 -3.0 2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCU.
7.5 -3.3
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
7.0 -3.5 months.
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
28 11 CPI Exchange Rate

Uruguay variation in % UYU per USD
Uruguay
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
21 Barclays Capital 7.6 7.5 39.7 41.7
9 BBVA Argentina 7.5 6.0 41.0 43.4
14 CINVE 8.9 8.2 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.0 7.5 41.0 45.0
7 DuckerFrontier - - - -
7 EIU 6.9 7.0 40.5 43.0
Equipos Consultores 8.4 - 40.2 -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
0 5 Fitch Solutions 7.8 8.0 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 HSBC - - - -
Iecon - UdelaR 8.5 7.5 41.0 43.0
Itaú Unibanco 8.0 7.0 41.0 43.4
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 6.5 - 40.5 -
Julius Baer - - - -
10 9
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Oikos 7.7 7.7 39.7 42.7
9 Minimum 8 Minimum Oxford Economics 8.0 7.4 40.1 42.3
República AFAP 7.7 7.5 - -
S&P Global - - - -
8 7
Santander 8.3 - 41.3 -
Summary
7 6 Minimum 6.5 6.0 39.7 40.4
Maximum 8.9 8.2 41.3 45.0
5
Median 7.8 7.5 40.5 42.8
6
Consensus 7.8 7.3 40.4 42.6
History
5 4 30 days ago 7.6 7.0 40.3 42.4
60 days ago 7.5 6.8 39.8 41.4
90 days ago 7.6 6.8 39.5 41.1
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
IMF (Oct. 2019) 7.0 7.0 - -
50 3
Uruguay
Latin America
40 0
30 -3
20 -6
10 -9 Notes and sources

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated.
15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term
forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-
44 1 of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary and external
sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional
2020 2021 2020 2021 de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay), IMF
(International Financial Statistics) and Refinitiv. See below for details.
41 Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
0
Source: INE.
38 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INE.
-1 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
35
13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
32 -2 months.
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m) Uruguay
Uruguay
0.6%
1.1%
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215 Other
Other 22.6%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 3.5 27.6%
Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 19.9 35.0% Brazil
36.1%
Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 1.4 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Spanish Argentina
10.4%
8.4%
Mexico
Time: GMT-3 20.9%
Mexico
23.4%
Economic Structure
100 120
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 27.6 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80
Energy (2016) 80
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 119 Manufacturing Investment

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 226 60

40 Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 53.0 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.6 0 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 133
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Montevideo
Other U.S.A.
Turkey 6.2% 7.0%
Political Data 7.0% U.S.A.
Angola

6.5% 10.9% EU-27
President: Tabaré Vázquez* Other
32.0%

EU-27

12.5%

Last elections: 24 November 2019 9.5%
Other
Asia
ex-Japan
Next elections: 2024 Argentina
5.5%
Exports 12.6% Imports
Central Bank Govenor: Alberto Graña
China
China
16.0%
16.9%
*President-elect Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou will take office on 1 March Brazil Brazil
14.3% Other 20.6%
Other
LatAm LatAm
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 14.6% 7.8%

S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative Other
1.2%
Mineral
Fuels Other
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. 11.6% 15.9%
Products
22.5%
• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy
• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring
• Abundant natural resources economies Exports

Imports
Agric.
• Small domestic market Food Raw Mat.
62.9% 13.3%
Manufact.
Products
. 72.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements

Notes February 2020
PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2020 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to under International Copyright Conventions.
economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries: The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, FocusEconomics S.L.U.
Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Gran Via 657
Tobago and Uruguay E-08010 Barcelona
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador Spain
and Peru. tel: +34 932 651 040
Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa fax: +34 932 650 804
Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
Venezuela is included in the LatinFocus report but not in regional

or world aggregates.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the

latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS
MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy),
Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt
PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

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Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
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LATINFOCUS

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2018 2019 2020 2021

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2018 2019 2020 2021

2018 2019 2020 2021

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

by the coronavirus outbreak; policy uncertainty domestically; and 2021 Feb-20

ARGENTINA | 2020: -1.5%

the pace of contraction is expected to ease. Downbeat investor 2019 Dec-19

growth. Debt renegotiations and interventionist policies further 2021 Feb-20

BRAZIL | 2020: 2.2%

CHILE | 2020: 1.5%

the protests in October. Capital investment is seen declining on 2019 Dec-19

COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.2%

MEXICO | 2020: 0.9%

business confidence, an uncertain global trade environment and 2021 Feb-20

PERU | 2020: 3.1%

likely sustain household spending. Protracted political uncertainty 2021 Feb-20

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: 41.6%

BRAZIL | 2020: 3.7%

CHILE | 2020: 3.0%

COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.3%

policy. 2021 Feb-20

MEXICO | 2020: 3.4%

PERU | 2020: 2.2%

stemming from weaker-than-expected domestic demand. 2021 Feb-20

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

Argentina’s monetary authority lowered the rate floor yet again. As

ARGENTINA | 2020: 36.69%

BRAZIL | 2020: 4.47%

CHILE | 2020: 1.49%

COLOMBIA | 2020: 4.28%

unchanged at 4.25% at its latest Board of Directors meeting on 31 2019 Dec-19

hiking the rate in 2020. 2021 Feb-20

MEXICO | 2020: 6.34%

PERU | 2020: 2.14%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

and high domestic real interest rates. Currencies are expected to

ARGENTINA | 2020: -25.1%

BRAZIL | 2020: -1.0%

coronavirus outbreak unsettled FX markets. On 13 February, 2019 Dec-19

month-on-month. The BRL should recover ahead, supported by 2021 Feb-20

CHILE | 2020: -0.1%

COLOMBIA | 2020: -1.1%

MEXICO | 2020: -3.7%

PERU | 2020: -1.3%

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

Brazil: COPOM slashes key interest rate in February, suggests

Brazil: Real plunges to record low in February as coronavirus

outbreak and COPOM’s rate cut to a historic low. On 13 February,

Chile: Economic activity recovers in December