Stocks & Commodities V.

10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

Traders using ratio of time cycle analysis will find this spreadsheet version of determining future target
dates of possible cyclical highs or lows helpful. STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor Robert Miner
discusses the use of projected target dates, along with an example of a trade.
by Robert Miner

A s W. D. Gann described more than 70 years ago, markets make swing highs or lows in proportion
(relation) to past market cycles. My March 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article, "Time as a trading tool,"
described the theory and methodology of projecting proportions of past cycles forward in time to deter
nine future dates with the greatest probability of change in trend. Past cycles are proportioned by the most
important geometric ratios, and these proportions of past cycles are in turn projected forward. Future
changes in trend should coincide with clusters of target dates from proportions of past cycles. Any
spreadsheet program, as I will demonstrate, can project the future dates.
Proportioning and projecting forward dates with a spreadsheet program is as easy as dividing a price
cycle for retracements or projections. A time projection spreadsheet will simply treat the values as dates
instead of prices. A time projection spreadsheet proportions various past cycles and projects the future
dates of the proportioned past cycles.

CYCLES, RATIOS , DATES

Three important considerations must be addressed before we construct the time projection spreadsheet:
which cycles to project from, what ratios to use and just how to use the projected dates to make a trading
decision. First, we must decide which cycles are to be proportioned and projected forward in time. Five
cycles are the most important. The symbol on the spreadsheet (Figure 1 ) to identify the cycle projected
follows the name of the cycle (Figure 2):

Article Text Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 1

 A B C D E F
1 TIME MARKET: Gold
2 PROJECTIONS FROM: 9 / 1 1 / 9 1
3 (UNSORTED) LOW
4
5 PRICE Swing Time
6 SWING DATE H/L PRICE RANGE R a n g e - C D s
7
8 6 8/24/90 H 415.50 - -
9 5 10/16/90 L 360.50 -55.00 53
1 0 4 1/16/91 H 406.90 46.40 92
1 1 3 4/29/91 L 352.60 -54.30 103
1 2 2 6/10/91 H 375.00 22.40 42
1 3 1 9/11/91 L 343.00 -32.00 93
1 4
1
1 56 CYCLES RATIOS
1 7 DR 1-2-> 0.382 1.618
1 8 1st Alt. 3-2 Fr. 1 0.5 1.732
1 9 2nd Alt. 5-4 Fr. 1 0.618 2
2 0 C 4-2-> 0.707 2.618
2 1 DC 6-2-> 1 3
2 2 1.414
2
2 3
4 TARGET
2 5 DATE RATIO CYCLE
2 6
2 7 10/16/91 0.382 DR
FIGURE 1: TARGET DATE
2 8 10/27/91 0.5 DR
SPREADSHEET. Here is an
2 9 11/7/91 0.618 DR
example of the target date
3 0 11/15/91 0.707 DR
spreadsheet with the target
3 1 12/13/91 1 DR
3 2 1/20/92 1.414 DR
dates un
3 3 2/8/92 1.618 DR
3 4 2/19/92 1.732 DR
3 5 3/15/92 2 DR
3 6 5/11/92 2.618 DR
3 7 6/16/92 3 DR
3 8 9/27/91 0.382 1st Alt.
3 9 10/2/91 0.5 1st Alt.
4 0 10/6/91 0.618 1st Alt.
4 1 10/10/91 0.707 1st Alt.
4 2 10/23/91 1 1st Alt.
4 3 11/9/91 1.414 1st Alt.
4 4 11/17/91 1.618 1st Alt.
4 5 11/22/91 1.732 1st Alt.
4 6 12/4/91 2 1st Alt.
4 7 12/29/91 2.618 1st Alt.
4 8 1/15/92 3 1st Alt.
4 9 10/16/91 0.382 2nd Alt.
5 0 10/27/91 0.5 2nd Alt.
5 1 11/6/91 0.618 2nd Alt.
5 2 11/15/91 0.707 2nd Alt.
5 3 10/16/91 1 2nd Alt.
5 4 10/27/91 1.414 2nd Alt.
5 5 2/6/92 1.618 2nd Alt.
5 6 2/17/92 1.732 2nd Alt.
5 7 3/13/92 2 2nd Alt.
5 8 5/8/92 2.618 2nd Alt.
5 9 6/13/92 3 2nd Alt.
6 0 8/4/91 0.382 C
6 1 8/21/91 0.5 C
6 2 9/7/91 0.618 C
6 3 9/20/91 0.707 C
6 4 11/2/91 1 C
6 5 1/1/92 1.414 C
6 6 1/30/92 1.618 C
6 7 2/16/92 1.732 C
6 8 1/10/93 2 DC
6 9 7/8/93 2.618 DC
7 0 10/27/93 3 DC
7 1 9/28/91 0.382 DC
7 2 11/2/91 0.5 DC
7 3 12/6/91 0.618 DC
7 4 1/1/92 0.707 DC
7 5 3/26/92 1 DC
7 6 7/24/92 1.414 DC
7 7 9/21/92 1.618 DC
7 8 10/24/92 1.732 DC
7 9 1/10/93 2 DC
8 0 7/8/93 2.618 DC
8 1 10/27/93 3 DC
Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

FIGURE 2: The five cycles of intermediate degree going into gold's September 11, 1991, low.
Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

1 Direct time retracements (DR): The most recent cycle or the swing into the last pivot point. I call the
forward dates from this cycle direct time retracements. In Figure 2, this would be the number of days
from point 2 to point 1 and then projected forward from point 1.
2 The prior two alternate cycles (1 stand 2nd alt): These are the prior two swings in the same direction
of the current market direction from the last pivot point. The last two alternate cycles are proportioned
and the projections made from the last swing point. In Figure 2, the first alternate cycle is the day
count from point 3 to point 2 and projected forward from point 1. The second alternate cycle is the day
count from point 5 to point 4 and projected from point 1.
3 The prior cycle (C): If the last pivot point was a low, the prior cycle would be the last high - high. If
the last pivot point was a high, the prior cycle would be the last low - low . In Figure 2, this would be
the day counts between points 4 and 2 and projected from 2.
4 The prior dual cycle (DC): If the last pivot point was a low, the prior dual cycle would be the period
from the last high to the third high back or the dual or double cycle of similar degree. From a high
pivot, the prior dual cycle would be the period from the last to the third prior low. In Figure 2, this
would be the day count from point 6 to point 2 and projected from point 2.
These are the five most important cycles to consider from a swing high or low. While the time projection
spreadsheet that I use includes a total of 10 different cycle relationships, first we must concentrate on the
most important cycles. The time projection spreadsheet shown includes only the five cycles described.
Figure 2 is a chart of the five swings of intermediate degree going into the September 11, 1991, low in
gold. These are the cycle highs and lows that are projected forward to arrive at the target dates.
The second consideration is which ratios to use. Literally dozens of geometric ratios can be found in the
time and price analysis of markets. If we used them all, we would have many target projections for every
day in the following months. It is important to use only those ratios that are consistently reliable for time
analysis. The Figure 1 spreadsheet includes those most important ratios. The ratios in bold (2.618, 1.618,
1, 0.618, 0.5) on the spreadsheet are of primary importance. A future cluster of dates should not be
considered valid unless one or more of the bold ratios of past cycles are in the future time cluster. The
ratio time projections not in bold should be considered to be confirming time factors.
The third consideration is how to use the projected periods of clusters of target dates. This time
projection information is valid only if it can help us prepare to make a trading decision.
Two factors should be kept in mind:
1 Using the cycle relationships described in the first consideration, we should regard the future dates as
a potential change in trend opposite to the last swing point. If the last swing point was a cycle low, the
future dates are only valid as a potential cycle high. If the last swing point was a cycle high, the future
dates are only valid as a potential cycle low.
2 The time projections must be used in the context of the price and pattern position of the market.

SPREAD SHEET INSTRUCTIONS

Click here open spreadsheet files: Figure 1, Figure 3 Figure 4. (Files are in Lotus .wk1 formats.)

Article Text Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 2

 A B C D E F
1 TIME MARKET: Gold
2 PROJECTIONS FROM: 9/11/91
3 LOW
4
5 PRICE Swing Time
6 SWING DATE H/L PRICE RANGE Range-CDs
7
8 6 8/24/90 H 415.50 - -
9 5 10/16/90 L 360.50 -55.00 53
1 0 4 1/16/91 H 406.90 46.40 92
1 1 3 4/29/91 L 352.60 -54.30 103
1 2 2 6/10/91 H 375.00 22.40 42
1 3 1 9/11/91 L 343.00 -32.00 93
1 4
1 5 CYCLES RATIOS
1 6
1 7 DR 1-2-> 0.382 1.618
1 8 1st Alt. 3-2 Fr. 1 0.5 1.732
1 9 2nd Alt. 5-4 Fr. 1 0.618 2
2 0 C 4-2-> 0.707 2.618
2 1 DC 6-2-> 1 3
2 2 Target 1.414
2 3
2 5
2 4 DATE RATIO CYCLE
2 6 10/2/91 0.5 1st Alt.
2 7 10/6/91 0.618 1st Alt.
2 8 10/10/91 0.707 1st Alt.
2 9 10/16/91 0.382 2nd Alt.
3 0 10/16/91 0.382 DR
3 1 10/23/91 1 1st Alt. Oct. 23-27
3 2 10/27/91 0.5 2nd Alt.
3 3 10/27/91 0.5 DR
3 4 11/2/91 1 C Nov. 2-7
3 5 11/2/91 0.5 DC
3 6 11/6/91 0.618 2nd Alt.
3 7 11/7/91 0.618 DR
3 8 11/9/91 1.414 1st Alt.
3 9 11/15/91 0.707 2nd Alt.
4 0 11/15/91 0.707 DR
4 1 11/17/91 1.618 1st Alt.
4 2 11/22/91 1.732 1st Alt.
4 3 12/4/91 2 1st Alt. Dec. 4-13
4 4 12/6/91 0.618 DC Top made Dec. 9.
4 5 12/12/91 1 2nd Alt.
4 6 12/13/91 1 DR
4 7 12/29/91 2.618 1st Alt.
4 8 1/1/92 1.414 C
4 9 1/1/92 0.707 DC
5 0 1/15/92 3 1st Alt.
5 1 1/19/92 1.414 2nd Alt.
5 2 1/20/92 1.414 DR
5 3 1/30/92 1.618 C
FIGURE 3: TARGET DATE SPREADSHEET. The target dates have
been sorted chronologically by date. Look for clusters of dates that
include the important concentrations.
 A B C D E F
1 TIME M A R K E T : Gold
2 PROJECTIONS FROM: 32030
3 (FORMULAS) LOW
4
5 PRICE Swing Time
6
7 SWING H/L DATE PRICE RANGE Range-CDs

8 6 31647 H 415.5 - -
9 5 31700 L 360.5 =D9-D8 =B9-B8
1 0 4 31792 H 406.9 =D10-D9 =B10-B9
1 1 3 31895 L 352.6 =D11-D10 =B11-B10
1 2 2 31937 H 375 =D12-D11 =B12-B11
1 4
1 3 1 32030 L 343 =D13-D12 =B13-B12

1
1 5
6 CYCLES PROJECTED RATIOS USED
1 7 Dir.R 1-2-> 0.382 1.618
1 8 1st Alt. 3-2 Fr. 1 0.5 1.732
1 9 2nd Alt. 5-4 Fr. 1 0.618 2
2 0 C 4-2-> 0.707 2.618
2 1 DC 6-2-> 1 3
2 2 1.414
2
2 3
4
2
2 5
6 TARGET DATE RATIO CYCLE
2 7 =$D$17*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$17 =$A$17
2 8 =$D$18*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$18 =$A$17
2 9 =$D$19*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$19 =$A$17
3 0 =$D$20*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$20 =$A$17
3 1 =$D$21*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$21 =$A$17
3 2 =$D$22*$F$13+$B$13 =$D$22 =$A$17
3 3 =$E$17*$F$13+$B$13 =$E$17 =$A$17
3 4 =$E$18*$F$13+$B$13 =$E$18 =$A$17
3 5 =$E$19*$F$13+$B$13 =$E$19 =$A$17
3 6 =$E$20*$F$13+$B$13 =$E$20 =$A$17
3 7 =$E$21*$F$13+$B$13 =$E$21 =$A$17
3 8 =$F$12*$D$17+$B$13 =$D$17 =$A$18
3 9 =$F$12*$D$18+$B$13 =$D$18 =$A$18
4 0 =$F$12*$D$19+$B$13 =$D$19 =$A$18
4 1 =$F$12*$D$20+$B$13 =$D$20 =$A$18
4 2 =$F$12*$D$21+$B$13 =$D$21 =$A$18
4 3 =$F$12*$D$22+$B$13 =$D$22 =$A$18
4 4 =$F$12*$E$17+$B$13 =$E$17 =$A$18
4 5 =$F$12*$E$18+$B$13 =$E$18 =$A$18
4 6 =$F$12*$E$19+$B$13 =$E$19 =$A$18
4 7 =$F$12*$E$20+$B$13 =$E$20 =$A$18
4 8 =$F$12*$E$21+$B$13 =$E$21 =$A$18
4 9 =$F$10*$D$17+$B$13 =$D$17 =$A$19
5 0 =$F$10*$D$18+$B$13 =$D$18 =$A$19
5 1 =$F$10*$D$19+$B$13 =$D$19 =$A$19
5 2 =$F$10*$D$20+$B$13 =$D$20 =$A$19
5 3 =$F$10*$D$17+$B$13 =$D$21 =$A$19
5 4 =$F$10*$D$18+$B$13 =$D$22 =$A$19
5 5 =$F$10*$E$17+$B$13 =$E$17 =$A$19
5 6 =$F$10*$E$18+$B$13 =$E$18 =$A$19
5 7 =$F$10*$E$19+$B$13 =$E$19 =$A$19
5 8 =$F$10*$E$20+$B$13 =$E$20 =$A$19
5 9 =$F$10*$E$21+$B$13 =$E$21 =$A$19
6 0 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$17+$B$12 =$D$17 =$A$20
6 1 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$18+$B$12 =$D$18 =$A$20
6 2 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$19+$B$12 =$D$19 =$A$20
6 3 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$20+$B$12 =$D$20 =$A$20
6 4 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$21+$B$12 =$D$21 =$A$20
6 5 =($B$12-$B$10)*$D$22+$B$12 =$D$22 =$A$20
6 6 =($B$12-$B$10)*$E$17+$B$12 =$E$17 =$A$20
6 7 =($B$12-$B$10)*$E$18+$B$12 =$E$18 =$A$20
6 8 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$19+$B$12 =$E$19 =$A$21
6 9 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$20+$B$12 =$E$20 =$A$21
7 0 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$21+$B$12 =$E$21 =$A$21
7 1 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$17+$B$12 =$D$17 =$A$21
7 2 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$18+$B$12 =$D$18 =$A$21
7 3 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$19+$B$12 =$D$19 =$A$21
7 4 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$20+$B$12 =$D$20 =$A$21
7 5 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$21+$B$12 =$D$21 =$A$21
7 6 =($B$12-$B$8)*$D$22+$B$12 =$D$22 =$A$21
7 7 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$17+$B$12 =$E$17 =$A$21
7 8 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$18+$B$12 =$E$18 =$A$21
7 9 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$19+$B$12 =$E$19 =$A$21
8 0 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$20+$B$12 =$E$20 =$A$21
8 1 =($B$12-$B$8)*$E$21+$B$12 =$E$21 =$A$21

FIGURE 4: TARGET DATE SPREADSHEET FORMULAS. Here are the formulas used in the spreadsheet for calculating the target dates.
Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

Figure 1 is a spreadsheet that will project all the target dates by all the ratios and cycle relationships by
simply entering the date and price of the prior six swing highs and lows. The target dates in this
spreadsheet have not yet been sorted. The dates are then sorted chronologically (Figure 3) and the trader
may then quickly scan the target dates for clusters of dates that fall within narrow time periods. The
formulas used in the spreadsheet are shown in Figure 4.
1 Enter the swing date, H or L symbol and the price of the current pivot and the prior five pivots.
Choose the degree of swing desired: minor, intermediate or primary.
2 All the future target dates related to the ratios are projected under the target date heading.
3 Sort the target dates in chronological order. Delete any of the early or later dates that may not fall into
the parameters of the typical period of the swings of the degree chosen.
4 Under the list of ratios used, those in bold tend to be the most reliable for all markets. They will also
be shown in bold under the target dates for easy identification.
5 Scan the projected dates and note if there is a cluster of target dates in any month (particularly those in
bold) that fall in a fairly narrow time zone. These will be the periods that have the highest probability
of a change in trend of the degree of the swings chosen. The target dates must fall in an obvious
cluster to be a valid potential change in trend period.

PROJECTIONS FROM 9/11/91 GOLD LOW

The target date clusters must not be used indiscriminately. As we are projecting from an
intermediate-term low, ideally they will point to the next intermediate-term top. The target date clusters
will only be relevant as a potential for trend change if the market is making a high. The position of the
market relative to price and pattern will help qualify if the market is likely to make a trend reversal as it
advances into a projected period.

By integrating ratio time analysis into your trading plan, you will
have a much greater opportunity to make successful trades and
understand the position of the market at any time.
In the four and a half months from the September 11, 1991, low through February 1, 1992, only three
time periods were indicated as a potential for a high: October 23-27, November 2-7 and December 4-13,
1991. Since none of the past five swings exceeded 103 days and historical analysis of the gold market
shows that intermediate-term swings rarely last more than 110 days, an intermediate-term high would
most likely be made prior to February 1, 1992, with the greatest probability occurring within one of the
three time periods as indicated by the target date clusters on the spreadsheet.
The prior five intermediate-degree swings lasted from 42 to 103 days in length. After all the target dates
were sorted, those dates before October 1 and after January 30 were deleted. The first cluster of bold
dates falls in the period of October 23-27, just 42-46 days following the September 11th low, falling
within the minimum parameters of past swings of similar degree. The market had made a high on
October 21 and had begun to decline (Figure 5). The October 23-27th period would be ignored, as the
market was not advancing into the period. The time projections are only valid as potential highs.

Article Text Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 3

Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

FIGURE 5: Trends will not terminate until all dimensions of market activity—time, price and
pattern—terminate. The gold market made a new high at the 62% retracement level on November 11,
but this high was not made in a projected period for a high and the pattern was not complete. On
December 9, all the pieces fell together to indicate termination of the advance. Time had terminated
with an important price resistance zone with a competed pattern and reversal signal. This was the first
set-up of time, price and pattern termination since the low of September 11.
Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

The next cluster of bold dates fell on November 2-7 (but the second and the third was a weekend). The
market was declining into that period, so the projected time period was not relevant as an indication of
the termination of the trend from September 11, 1991.

T he next and final time zone that was an important period for the termination of the rally fell a month
later on December 4-13. Of the three periods to date, this period would be the most important for a
potential high. It included the 2X and 1X projections of the two prior alternate cycles, a 0.618 ratio of the
prior dual cycle (H-H) and the 100% time retracement of the prior cycle. On Monday, December 9, gold
made a reversal day for the final top of the advance from the September 11th low.
The reversal day of December 9 fell in the price resistance zone of a 62-67% retracement level, plus
using Elliott wave analysis; this rally was the fifth wave of a C wave. All the pieces had come together in
just one of the three periods in a time of four and a half months with the greatest probability of
terminating the advance from the September 11th low. Time, price, pattern and daily reversal signals all
indicated trend termination. It is very important to note that the only time signal that was valid in the
period of four and a half months fell in the December 4-13th projected period. Of the three periods, that
was the only period that the market was making a new high.
Another factor to note is that the market made a new high precisely at the 62% retracement level on
November 11. Traders who only look at price relationships may have considered this the final high.
However, this high was not made in a time projection for a top and the pattern was not complete.
Termination of trend will not occur unless all dimensions of market activity terminate, including time,
rice and pattern. Be wary of making a trading decision from the information of only one or two
dimensions of market activity, because trend will simply not terminate until time is up.
A new time projection spreadsheet would be run as soon as the December 9th high was confirmed to
project the periods after that high with the best probability of making an intermediate term low.

FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND

1 It is important to use a fairly small series of the most important ratios. If a large series of geometric
ratios are used instead, there will be one or more target dates on just about every day of each month
after the last swing pivot. It is easy to show multiple time ratio projections at every minor swing pivot
when using a large number of ratios indiscriminately. For this time projection technique to be of
practical value, the trader must have only a few well-defined periods that are determined well in
advance. Anything else is analysis after the fact.
2 The projected time periods are primarily relevant for projecting the termination of the trend from the
last swing point recorded. Do not fall into the trap of thinking every cluster of target dates will result
in a change in trend, whether the market is making a high or low.
3 A thorough study of the cycle ratios at past swing points will reveal that individual markets have
particular time ratios that are peculiar to that market. When you discover those ratios, you may easily
add them to your spreadsheet. For our purposes, I have just included the ratios that are the most
consistent throughout all markets.
4 The time projections may be performed from swings of various degrees including intraday periods.

Article Text Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 4

Stocks & Commodities V. 10:12 (532-536): A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis

Just as Elliott wave analysis looks at smaller and smaller degrees of pattern to confirm the position of
the market at any time from a larger degree, hourly charts of time ratio projections will confirm the
daily charts of intermediate-term degree. From the spreadsheet standpoint, the formulas are much
more complex if entering less than daily periods, as you must take into consideration the intraday time
period chosen, hours of trading, non-trading days and so forth. I have kept things simple for this
example and stayed with daily bars and intermediate-term swings that usually last at least 30 days.
5 Last but most important: The time projection clusters must not be used out of context of the price and
pattern position of the market. Do not blindly make a trade because the market is moving into a time
projection. Price and pattern analysis, as well as a reversal signal, must also be present to indicate the
termination of the trend.
By integrating ratio time analysis into your trading plan, you will have a much greater opportunity to
make successful trades and understand the position of the market at any time. Remember, a trend change
will not occur until time is up.
Robert Miner is a private trader and the author of the W. D. Gann Trading Techniques Home Study
Course. Miner also publishes the "Major Market Analysis Report," a monthly report of time and price
analysis. Gann/Elliott Educators, 6336 N. Oracle, Suite 326-346, Tucson, AZ 85704, (602) 797-3668.

ADDITIONAL READING
Gilmore, Bryce [1992). Geometry of Markets, Gann/Elliott Educators, 2d edition.
Miner, Robert [1991]. "Form and pattern as a trading tool," Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES,
Volume 9: May.
___ [1991]. "Price as a trading tool," Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 9: April.
___ [1991]. "Time as a trading tool," Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 9: March.
___ [1989]. "Time, price, pattern," Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 7: May.
___. W.D. Gann Trading Techniques Home Study Course , Gann/Elliott Educators.

Figures Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 5