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STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx
Content
A. Crisis 2009 and beyond Only a short calm for the wind market
Page 3
B
B. Challenges ahead Using turbulent times to become fit for future
Page 15
Page 30
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 2
A. CRISIS 2009 AND BEYOND
Only a short calm for the wind market
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 3
The crisis has brought a calm to the wind industry Long-term
growth trend still intact with 17% growth p.a. until 2012
Forecasts comparison – Pre-crisis vs. actual
ROOT CAUSES
Worldwide yearly added capacity
[GW] Slowdown...
+17% p.a. > Lack of financing, especially for large projects – Required
55
equity share has increased typically in Europe from ~15%
to ~30% plus additional insurances
GROWTH SLOWDOWN > Reduced urgency to compensate high prices of electricity
50
from fossil sources (oil price evolution)
> Uncertainty regarding general development of the
45 worldwide economy, financing and subsidies' volume
associated to economic slowdown
40
... but growth trend still intact:
35 > Economic stimulus packages strongly support renewable
energies, especially wind
30 > Strong growth share in countries less dependant on
financial markets (China)
> Ambitious government goals for renewable energy share in
25
core markets (e.g. USA, Europe, China, India...)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 > Cost penalties for fossil energies in Europe (ETS)
Forecast pre-crisis Actual forecasts
Source: BTM 2008 and 2009 STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 4
While the industry is expected to grow healthily, margins of
manufacturers will come under strong pressure
Key market trends Impact Impact
on Growth on Margin
Wind energy costs still need to decrease to reach full parity with
bulk power costs – Main driver is the price for wind turbines
Historic and forecasted energy cost development in Europe 1985-2030 [EUR/MWh]
REMARKS
150
> Energy costs account for:
– Capital costs
Solar PV
– O&M costs
– Fuel costs (not for renewables)
100 – CO2 emission costs (25-30 EUR/t)
81 Grid Fossil
75
68 > Increase of wind energy costs
Wind – max between 2005 and 2010 due to
53
increased capital costs because of
50 high wind turbine prices
Grid Bulk Power
Wind – min
43
39 > Capacity constraints and high price
for wind turbines assumed to
continue until 2010
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030
"Turbine costs will decline by 20% in 24% 100% > Wind turbine acquisition costs is the main lever for
utilities to reduce overall wind energy costs
the next 3 years" [Acciona Energia] > Wind turbine suppliers have to plan with strong price
and profit margins reduction in the next years
7% 76% > For offshore, the wind turbine accounts for 45%-50%
5% of the total life cycle costs, varying strongly with water
7% depth and distance to coast – deployment and O&M
57% much higher than for offshore
> Other up-front costs include:
– Land up-front costs
– Electric installation
– Consultancy
– Financial costs
– Road construction
– Control systems
> O&M account for:
– Service & spare parts 26%
– Administration 21%
– Land rent 18%
Turbine Grid Found- Other Total capex O&M Total – Miscellaneous 17%
(ex works) connec- dation up-front – Insurance 13%
– Power from the grid 5%
tion costs
Six key factors are driving the utilities to increase wind in their
portfolio, broadening their energy mix
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 11
3 ENTRY OF UTILITIES
40 90
Competitors have
Average number of turbines entered into major deals
35 80
Number of farms with utilities
70
30 > Siemens agreement
60
25 with Dong Energy for
50
20 1800MW
40
15
30 FEWER > REpower will
10 20 BUT manufacture for RWE
5 10 LARGER wind turbines
0 0 ORDERS amounting 1900 MW
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
> Harder
> Average wind farm size increased by 20% in the last competition > Utilities are allocating large orders and
four years – larger projects over 50 MW are expected among WTMs establishing framework agreements with
in the next years, specially offshore > Crucial importance selected suppliers – partnerships focusing to
> Wind park size is a key factor for the develop joint growth approaches
of partnerships
industrialization of wind energy and key account > Number of suppliers to the major utilities is
management reduced
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 12
4 LOCAL SUPPLY CHAINS
FAL
Components Manufacturing
> Ability to deliver – Secure supply of key components > Develop clusters with local supply networks in key
> Ways to overcome constraints of oligopolistic markets markets on a global level
for gearboxes and bearings > Importance of "Buy Local" to participate in governmental
economic stimulus programs
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 13
5 MANUFACTURERS LANDSCAPE
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 15
To protect the market position and margins, wind turbine
manufacturers need to address four challenges
Challenges wind turbine manufacturers
1 CAPTURE 2 LEVERAGE 3 ENHANCE 4 RESTRUCTURE
MARKET TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY CHAIN OPERATIONS
> Benefit from govern- > Drive standardization, > Manage risk of supplier > Manage liquidity shor-
ment incentive modularization and base tages and adjust ca-
programs development of > Eliminate supply pacities in the short
> Secure access to platforms constraints term
profitable key markets > Manage complex > Establish and manage > Further industrialize
and clients technology trade-offs local supply chains on operations
beyond pure perfor- a global scale > Build up global
mance criteria, focu- operations footprint
sing on life cycle costs
> Proposed target of 20% of > Energy production: Different schemes on federal and state level, but basically based on a production-tax-credit
electricity supplied by wind (PTC). Possible introduction of a national renewable portfolio standard scheme
energy in 2030 > Project development: Investment-tax-credits and loan guarantees on a federal level and different schemes on
USA state level (e.g. tax incentives, land acquisition, grants, loans...). Indirect support through specific incentives for
investment on the transmission network and a proposed cap-and-trade scheme penalizing carbon emissions
> Equipment manufacturing: Programs mostly on state level, typically based on job creation and including tax
incentives, soft-loans and low costs for land and infrastructure. R&D funding programs.
> Ambitious targets fixed in > Energy production: project specific fixed tariffs based on wind resources, transmission and production costs
the Wind Base Program, (only for non-concession projects) and a tariff premium pro MW
aiming for more than 100 > Project Development: tendering for national concession projects and low interest loans
CHINA GWs until 2020 > Equipment manufacturing:
> Strong willingness to – Higher taxes for importing wind turbines and key components
promote domestic manu- – Specific incentives (cash subsidies pro MW) for the manufacturing of turbines for domestic brands (>51%
facturing of equipment chinese)
– National and regional specific subsidies, tax incentives and low interest loans for the establishment of new
companies
USA CHINA
> Partnering g with > Partnering with
local and European domestic manufac-
utilities/IPPs turers and suppliers
leading capacity Subsidies for manu-
build-up facturing of turbines only
for domestic brands
> Build up own (>51% chinese)
domestic capacity
and supplier network > Build up local manu-
Reduce logistic facturing capacity to
costs and currency supply the market
risks EUROPA Reduce costs,
> Partner with major utilities, with a including high import
focus on offshore, repowering and taxes for wind turbine
markets in growth phase (e.g. France) components
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 19
TECHNOLOGY
2
Unique designs Part numbers Investment [hours] Variable costs [EUR '000/unit]
1) Based on the assumption of 3% CFRP application for blades; aircraft programs A380, A350 and B787
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 21
TECHNOLOGY
2
A PRIORITIZATION
OF PRODUCTS AND
SUPPLIERS
B IDENTIFICATION OF RISKY
SUPPLIERS C SELECTION OF LEVERS &
DEFINITION OF EMERGENCY
PLANS
STR-81011-009-01-01_Wind-Challenges_v19.pptx 23
SUPPLY CHAIN
3
11 Covenant reset
Focus product develop- Implement excellent Work for people Optimize overall equip- Establish a robust and
ment on life-cycle-costs industrial processes effectiveness ment availability & output efficient supply chain