Managing and Mitigating Global Risks

Global Redesign Initiative
Session Summaries from the

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010
Managing and Mitigating Global Risks
1) Rethinking Population Growth

2) Global Energy Outlook
3) Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for Haiti
4) IdeasLab on the Global Redesign Initiative (Global Risks)
5) A Global Solution to Illicit Trade?
6) Prepared for a Pandemic?
7) Rethinking How to Feed the World
8) Securing Cyberspace
World Economic Forum Summary
Davos-Klosters, Switzerland 27-31 January
26 gri/population growth
Rethinking Population Growth
The UN estimates that by 2050 world population will increase from 6.8 billion today to 9.2 billion.
How can the major risks associated with population growth be managed?
Key Points
• The rate of population growth has slowed from 1.8% from 1950 through 2000 to a current growth
rate of just 1%, but “population momentum” means that the world will still add three billion new
people during the current half century
• In contrast to the “population bomb” of the last century, the world now faces “population cluster
bombs” – accelerated growth in some of the world’s most fragile countries while others experience
population decline
• Population growth both increases poverty by overwhelming development programmes and is fed
by poverty, which reduces the ability of families to control their lives
• The education and empowerment of women can be an effective way to prevent overly rapid
population growth by enabling women to take control of their lives and family size
Synopsis
It took 50,000 years for the world’s population to reach one billion people. The fact that another three
billion will be added by 2050 despite a declining growth rate is due to the fact that the population is
already as large as it is.
While the population is actually declining in the West and Japan, the areas that continue to
experience rapid population growth are often the most fragile and least able to withstand the added
stress. Rwanda, for instance, has a birth rate of 5.5%, compared to a global average of 2.3%. By the
time the government had instituted a programme to lift one million people out of poverty, another
million had already been born. As a result, the programme, which ran from 2001 through 2005, only
reduced overall poverty by 4%.
Experience has shown that when women are educated and empowered to have property and control
over their own assets, the growth rate declines. Schooling often delays marriage, as does enabling
women to work. Access to healthcare allows women to make their own decisions. Another factor that
can help both overpopulation and the destabilization that results from a declining population is the
liberalization of laws controlling migration. The bottom line is that controlling population growth
requires dealing with multiple issues.
Session Panellists
Laura Liswood, Secretary-General, Council of Women World Leaders, USA; Global Agenda Council
on the Gender Gap
Michael B. McCallister, President and Chief Executive Officer, Humana, USA
John Rwangombwa, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning of Rwanda
Ann M. Veneman, Executive Director, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), New York; Global
Agenda Council on the Welfare of Children
Moderated by
David E. Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard School
of Public Health, USA; Global Agenda Council on Population Growth
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Disclosures
This summary was prepared by William Dowell. The views expressed are those of certain participants
in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic
Forum.
Copyright 2010 World Economic Forum

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or
redistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.
Wednesday 27 January
Keywords: Population, immigration, women’s rights, social stability, development, poverty, education,
resources
Recommended reading for: Non-governmental organizations, Civil Society Leaders, Women Leaders,
Global Agenda Councils on Population Growth, Poverty & Development Finance, and Economic
Growth & Development
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52 gri/energy outlook
Global Energy Outlook
Despite the major decline in energy prices from their peak in 2008, energy security concerns have
increased as major producing and consuming economies differ significantly on how to develop a more
secure and stable energy system.
How can producers and consumers develop mutually beneficial approaches to energy security?
Key Points
• The “Great Recession” of 2008-2009 has not fundamentally changed the global energy outlook,
with energy demand expected to increase by 40% in the next 20 years with hydrocarbons
providing up to 80%
• Nor has the recession fundamentally changed the capital investment plans of major oil and gas
companies; in reducing oil demand by 3% against an expected increase in demand of 1%, the
recession may have pushed back any future peak in oil production
• There has been a structural shift in the market, as European and mature Asian markets enter
structural decline, and as China and others continue to grow; China is now the world’s largest
automobile market
• Energy independence is a myth; but achieving energy security – implying a long-term balance of
interests between producers, transit countries and consumers – is essential
• The investments needed to overcome a 4-5% natural decline in existing fields and open new
fields sufficient for production and demand over the next 20 years are estimated at US$ 27
trillion, several times the amount spent to bail out the financial sector
• An “all of the above” approach, incorporating production increases, opening of new oil and gas
fields, energy efficiency measures and investment in alternative technologies may be needed to
provided stability in oil and gas markets, vital for both producers and consumers
Synopsis
The keys to energy security are stability, predictability and a long-term balance of interests between
producers, transit countries and consumers. Problems will result if this balance is disrupted.
Private consumers need stable prices to guarantee their mobility and the smooth functioning of the
economic system. Industries such as the chemicals industry – which depends heavily on
hydrocarbons as feedstock, and which is not able to pass on increases in input prices to final
consumers – need stable prices to safeguard their business models. Financial hedging is no longer
sufficient given the fourfold increase in price volatility; Dow Chemical’s oil and gas costs have risen
from US$ 8billion in 2002 to US$ 32 billion in 2008.
Producers need stability to be able to justify large-scale investments in upstream exploration and
production, and in refining and supply infrastructure. Income from oil and gas must be used, as in
Azerbaijan, to diversify the country’s economic base. Ultimately, the world needs energy, much of
which will continue to come from oil and gas, even under the most aggressive targets for stabilization
of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Several new sources of oil and gas for global or regional markets are now apparent. Azerbaijan plans
to increase gas supplied to the global market by a factor of two or three, focusing on markets in
neighbouring countries (including those with ample gas supplies themselves) and the European
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Union. Technology is improving the capacity of the most specialized and technology-rich companies –
which tend to be the international oil companies (IOCs) – to develop deepwater fields (up to 10
kilometres) in the Gulf of Mexico and challenging fields in the Arctic. Iraq may yet provide up to 10
million barrels per day (bpd) to global oil production within the next decade.
Saudi Arabia, which currently has spare capacity of 4 million bpd out of total productive capacity of
10-12 million bpd, plans to mitigate any natural decline in production in major fields and will consider
increases in production if the situation appears favourable. Investments in refining and in supply
infrastructure, notably tankers, will remain. Maintaining spare productive capacity is viewed as a
demonstration of responsible stewardship of natural resources. But there is a concern that there are
no reciprocal assurances from policy-makers in consuming countries.
Reaching peak production levels – variously viewed as 95 million bpd, 100 million bpd or 100 million-
plus bpd – will depend on “above ground” as much as “below ground” issues. Much of the technical
expertise is held by IOCs, and their contribution to new investment is disproportionate to their share of
overall production (20-22% of investments, compared to 15-16% of current production).
Gas may play an increasingly important role, particularly as a bridge to a more environmentally
sustainable energy future, as an abundant and much cleaner source of electricity generation.
Unconventional gas, particularly in the United States, may prove to be a “game changer”. But no
single source of energy will guarantee energy security. The low-hanging fruit of energy efficiency –
often with a rapid payback period – must be grasped first.
Session Panellists
Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan
Thierry Desmarest, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Total, France
Khalid A. Al Falih, President and Chief Executive Officer, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia
Tony Hayward, Group Chief Executive, BP, United Kingdom
Andrew N. Liveris, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dow Chemical Company, USA
Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell, Netherlands
Moderated by
Daniel Yergin, Chairman, CERA; Executive Vice-President, IHS, USA; Global Agenda Council on
Energy Security
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Charles Emmerson. The views expressed are those of certain
participants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World
Economic Forum.

Thursday 28 January
Keywords: oil, gas, energy, energy security, geopolitics, global governance, resources, scarcity
Recommended reading for: Business leaders, government leaders, Global Agenda Councils on
Energy Security, Food Security, Climate Change
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53 gri/humanitarian assistance
Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for Haiti
Major disasters over the last several years (including the 2004 tsunami and 2005 Pakistan
earthquake) have taught valuable lessons on the role of prevention, better coordination and the
effective use of the private sector.
Are these lessons being applied in Haiti?
Key Points
• The disaster in Haiti is the first mega-humanitarian crisis in an urban setting
• Cooperation and coordination among humanitarian and development agencies are improving
• National and local capacities to deal with natural disasters should be strengthened
• Engaging the private sector is important, not just as a source of donations but also as a source of
key skills and technologies
Synopsis
Following the earthquake in Haiti that has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and
destroyed much of the capital, Port-au-Prince, humanitarian and development agencies are working
together on much needed aid and are starting to plan rebuilding efforts. Better cooperation and
coordination among intergovernmental and non-government organizations are needed, as well as the
inclusion of the private sector, to prepare for the next natural disaster wherever it may hit.
In the past, there were many competing forces when it came to humanitarian assistance, especially
among non-government organizations; this is improving as smaller organizations are collaborating
better with larger ones. To strengthen response capacity, organizing on related work clusters is
proving more efficient for organizations, companies and people to focus their contributions.
With the tragedy in Haiti still unfolding, it is too early to address lessons learned from the emergency
relief effort. However, based on experience from the Asian tsunami, earthquakes in China and
Pakistan, and other natural disasters, humanitarian organizations have come to recognize the pivotal
role the military and private sector can play in assisting with relief efforts. For example, the military
tends to be very useful in the early phases of a rescue operation, while the private sector often has
the expertise that humanitarian organizations lack, such as telecommunications and airport handling.
To benefit communities affected by humanitarian crises, partnerships between humanitarian
organizations and private sector companies should be further developed.
The disaster in Haiti is the first mega-humanitarian crisis in an urban setting. As such, more work is
needed to address urbanization issues, including housing and water supplies. Schools, clinics and
community centres should be earthquake-proof when rebuilding.
It is important to listen to the local community in meeting their needs and to involve them in
emergency response and reconstruction measures. Faster restoration of local markets improves the
chances for a faster recovery. It is also important to support the current government during and after a
disaster. Despite the tragedy in Haiti, many are optimistic that the relief effort is coming together and
that through risk reduction and preparedness the country will better weather future natural disasters.
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Other Key Takeaways
Other issues to be considered in humanitarian assistance include improving standards and
measurements, the long-term effect on children and the value of digital inclusion, including connecting
with people on the ground through cell phones.
Session Panellists
Catherine Bragg, Assistant Secretary-General, United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Geneva
Nicolas Mariscal Torroella, Chairman of the Board, Grupo Marhnos, Mexico
Sadako Ogata, President, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan
Cameron Sinclair, Co-Founder and Executive Director, Architecture for Humanity, USA; Young
Global Leader
Barbara Stocking, Chief Executive, Oxfam GB, United Kingdom
Moderated by
Simon Maxwell, Senior Research Associate, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom;
Global Agenda Council on Humanitarian Assistance
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Mark Schulman. The views expressed are those of certain
Economic Forum.

Thursday 28 January
Keywords: Haiti, earthquake, humanitarian aid, private-public partnerships
Recommended reading for: Global Agenda Council on Humanitarian Assistance, Humanitarian Relief
Initiative (HRI), Disaster Resource Network
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84 ideaslab/gri risks
IdeasLab on the Global Redesign Initiative (Global Risks)
The Global Redesign Initiative aims to improve international cooperation on the pressing challenges of the
21st century. Experts in this IdeasLab explore the following innovative proposals to address global
challenges:
- Energy Security: Global Energy Forum
- Skills Gap: Migration and the Skills Gap
- Corruption: Global Anti-Corruption Compliance Partnership
- Population Growth: Strengthening International Organizations – Demography Need Not be Destiny
- Humanitarian Assistance: New Humanitarian Partnerships
Key Points
• Energy Security: A global energy forum that brings consumers and producers together is needed to
bridge gaps in the governance of energy markets
• Skills Gap: A global multistakeholder dialogue is required to shape a mechanism for facilitating migration
to address skills gaps around the world
• Corruption: To combat corruption and poor governance around the world, stakeholders should come
together to take a more comprehensive and aggressive approach
• Population Growth: The United Nations should put population growth and ageing demographics at the
forefront of global priorities by strengthening the role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
• Humanitarian Assistance: The international community should adopt a new business model for
humanitarian assistance to create more effective multistakeholder partnerships to mitigate the impact of
natural disasters through better preparedness and more efficient and well-coordinated response and
recovery
Synopsis
• Energy Security: Global Energy Forum
The governance of energy markets lags far behind reality. There are gaps in managing the connections
between energy and water, and between energy and food. New champion economies such as China and
India have to be brought into the equation. In addition, ways have to be found to bring consumers and
producers together. This proposal entails the setting up of an energy stability board that would include the 10
consumers and 10 producers that matter most. The organization would eventually become a much larger
global energy forum. This bottom-up strategy would make participation more appealing to new players in the
market.
• Skills Gap: Migration and the Skills Gap

This proposal is to launch a multistakeholder cooperative process aimed at shaping a mechanism to facilitate
the movement of people from one country to another to help address skills gaps where they exist and protect
the welfare of migrant workers.
• Corruption: Global Anti-Corruption Compliance Partnership

Under this proposal, the World Economic Forum would serve as the platform for launching a global
multistakeholder partnership against corruption. The coalition would include multinational companies, state-
owned enterprises and NGOs dedicated to improving governance standards and practices
• Population Growth: Strengthening International Organizations
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The proposal is to bolster the UNFPA to become a more active and prominent organization. This rebranding
would signal that the UN is putting the problem of population growth and ageing demographics – what one
participant described as “the most undermanaged and underestimated of global risks” – at the forefront.
• Humanitarian Assistance: High-Performing Tri-sector Partnerships

This proposal aims to create a new business model for humanitarian assistance and natural disaster relief.
This would be achieved by first building a comprehensive framework for identifying and assessing risks.
Spending would be rebalanced to focus more on prevention and recovery. The new partnership model,
which would bring together governments, business and civil society, would be locally driven, nationally
coordinated and globally supported. The key will be to launch it in a high-priority region such as South-East
Asia or Southern Africa and then scale it up and expand it. To raise global awareness about this new
approach, the international community could designate an International Disaster Preparedness Day similar to
the annual event held in Japan.
Opening Remarks by
Richard Samans, Managing Director, World Economic Forum
Discussion Leaders
David Arkless, President, Corporate and Government Affairs, Manpower, United Kingdom; Global Agenda
Council on the Skills Gap
David E. Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard School of
Public Health, USA; Global Agenda Council on Population Growth
Simon Maxwell, Senior Research Associate, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom; Global
Agenda Council on Humanitarian Assistance
Armen Sarkissian, President and Founder, Eurasia House International, United Kingdom; Global Agenda
Council on Energy Security
Cobus de Swardt, Managing Director, Transparency International, Germany; Global Agenda Council on
Corruption
David G. Victor, Professor, University of California, San Diego (UCSD), USA; Global Agenda Council on
Energy Security
Facilitated by
Richard T. Pascale, Associate Fellow, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Alejandro Reyes. The views expressed are those of certain participants in
the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic Forum.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed
without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.
Thursday 28 January
Keywords: corruption, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, skills gap, migration, energy security,
population growth, demographics
Recommended reading for: Global Agenda Councils on Energy Security, Humanitarian Assistance,
Corruption, Population Growth and the Skills Gap; Global Risks Network; Disaster Resource Network
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141 gri/illicit trade
A Global Solution to Illicit Trade?
Human trafficking and the illicit flow of arms, money, drugs, wildlife and counterfeit items are
estimated to amount to US$ 1-3 trillion or 7-10% of the world economy, a tenfold increase since 1990.
What can global institutions, governments and multinationals do to contain the rise of illicit
international trade?
Key Points
• Human trafficking and the illegal trade in goods and money is big business: If illicit trade were a
national economy, it would rival most in the G8
• The World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade is preparing to push for
initiatives that scale up efforts to increase consumers’ awareness of their own responsibility,
through their buying choices, for promoting or combating human misery
• Poverty drives illicit trade, and legitimate trade alleviates poverty; the challenge facing law
enforcement officials is to facilitate the right type of commerce, while protecting societies from the
wrong type
Synopsis
Whether money launderers, narcotraffickers, counterfeiters or slave traders, those involved in illicit
trade do major damage to human society and the global economy. The scale and scope of such illicit
trade has grown 1,000% in the last two decades, and today the dark economy stands as a real threat
to peace and stability on every continent. And yet, as a subject of discussion in international forums,
illicit trade remains in the margins of the global agenda. The Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade
aims to highlight the problem.
Rule of law, poor policing, corruption, and especially poverty and underdevelopment give rise to illicit
trade. There is no one central body in charge of combating the trade worldwide, and that failure of
global governance has caused the problem to metastasize rapidly. Leadership and political will are
often lacking, and those countries that are willing and eager to fight criminal enterprises often lack the
capacity. Public-private partnerships can advance the cause. For example, if major brand name
companies would fund anti-counterfeiting efforts, it would enable a more robust response on the part
of foreign governments. New technologies, particularly track-and-trace innovations, can also enhance
the toolkits of customs officers and police.
Session Panellists
Sandro Calvani, Director, United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute
(UNICRI), Turin; Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade
Wellington Chibebe, Secretary-General, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), Zimbabwe
Huguette Labelle, Chair, Transparency International, Germany; Global Agenda Council on the Future
of Mining & Metals
Ricardo Martinelli, President of Panama
Kunio Mikuriya, Secretary-General, World Customs Organization (WCO), Brussels; Global Agenda
Council on Trade
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria
Moderated by
Moisés Naím, Editor-in-Chief, Foreign Policy Magazine, USA; Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade
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Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Ben Skinner. The views expressed are those of certain participants in
the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic
Forum.

Friday 29 January
Keywords: illicit trade, counterfeiting, human trafficking, slavery, narcotics, rule of law, corruption
Recommended reading for: Young Global Leaders, CEOs, Non-Governmental Organizations,

Technology Pioneers, Civil Society Leaders, Women Leaders, Media Leaders, Global Agenda
Council on Illicit Trade
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157 gri/pandemics
Prepared for a Pandemic?
A survey revealed that although 60% of CEOs believe the threat of a pandemic is real, only 22% have
an emergency plan and only 27% are working on developing one.
What can industry and government do to improve their pandemic readiness?
Key Points
• The interconnected nature of the global economy is likely to result in unexpected effects from a
pandemic. A company may find that a disease halfway around the world stops it from receiving
critical parts or materials needed for its own manufacturing
• Just-in-time logistics are particularly vulnerable during pandemics. Either the supply line is
disrupted, or manufacturers of medical supplies are likely to be overwhelmed by sudden peak
demands. It is best to stockpile critical supplies
• Emergency continuity planning (ECP), deciding in advance what to prepare and how to react, is
the key to survival in a pandemic situation
• The emergency plan, including details on how to respond to various scenarios, must be in place
before the pandemic strikes. All levels of the corporation need to be informed about which steps
to follow
• Hygiene, using hand sanitizers and face masks, can be a more effective deterrent to disease than
trying to prevent travel from areas where the pandemic is taking place
Synopsis
Both the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the outbreak of SARS in Asia provide valuable insights into
how companies need to prepare for possible pandemics. One of Mexico’s largest microcredit banks,
serving more than 1.5 million customers, was able to continue functioning through the swine flu
outbreak largely because the company had developed an emergency continuity plan prior to the
outbreak. As soon as the flu spread, the company implemented plans to have 80% of its headquarters
staff operate from home, and adopted pre-arranged strategies for continuing service to clients. In
contrast, a large chain of Mexican movie theatres with 14,000 employees was forced to suspend
operations for nearly a month and ran a significant loss.
A US-based medical distributor was disturbed to find that one of the largest suppliers of equipment for
dentistry did its basic manufacturing in Pakistan, and then finished manufacturing its instruments in
Switzerland. An epidemic in South Asia could have shut down the supply line.
Another medical supplier found that a warning from the President of France to French citizens to use
hand sanitizers led to a sudden peak in demand which exhausted supplies to Europe for at least a
week. In contrast, a history of less than reliable logistical networks in Asia meant that many medical
suppliers had stockpiled supplies in advance and were able to meet sudden increases in demand.
Attempts to use infrared detectors to identify feverish passengers arriving in Asian airports were
largely unsuccessful. On the other hand, Asian cities were very successful at promoting hygiene.
Restaurants in Hong Kong served customers with anti-microbial hand wipes along with conventional
napkins.
A recurring observation during the discussion was that, once a pandemic starts, the flood of
conflicting and often misleading information is likely to dramatically increase the difficulty of making
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executive decisions and communicating them to employees. As a result, it is crucial to have a
contingency plan already in place.
Discussion Leaders
Douglas M. Baker Jr, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ecolab, USA
Stanley M. Bergman, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Henry Schein, USA;
Global Agenda Council on Pandemics
Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan; Global
Agenda Council on the Future of Japan
Michael Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP),
University of Minnesota, USA; Global Agenda Council on Pandemics
Alvaro Rodriguez Arregui, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, IGNIA Partners, Mexico; Young
Global Leader; Global Agenda Council on Philanthropy & Social Investing
Tan Chorh-Chuan, President, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Global Agenda Council
on Pandemics
Nathan D. Wolfe, Chief Executive Officer and Founder, Global Viral Forecasting Initiative (GVFI),
USA
Facilitated by
Angela McLean, Director, Institute for Emerging Infections, Zoology Department, University of
Oxford, United Kingdom; Global Agenda Council on Pandemics
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by William Dowell. The views expressed are those of certain participants
in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic
Forum.

Friday 29 January
Keywords: Pandemic, epidemic, disease, medical emergency, contingency planning, globalization,

health
Recommended reading for: CEOs, Civil Society Leaders, Young Global Leaders; Members of the
Global Agenda Council on Pandemics
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166 gri/food security
Rethinking How to Feed the World
Global food demand will double between now and 2050 as the world’s population reaches 9.2 billion.
How can the increased demand for food be met in an economically and environmentally sustainable
manner?
Key Points
Proposed Goals:
• Ensure there is no hungry or malnourished child by 2020
• Double food production in Africa over the next 10 years
• Double the income of small farmers so they can feed themselves and make money
• View Africa as the continent to feed the world; the average African farmer feeds two people, the
European 130 – better technology and financial resources can change this
• Double agricultural investment throughout the world; post-harvest waste should be halved
• Eliminate trade barriers and subsidies to improve worldwide food production
Synopsis
One billion people suffer from malnutrition throughout the world. This is the single-most important –
and neglected – issue on the global agenda. Feeding the planet’s population is a huge challenge.
Today there are 6.2 billion people; by 2050 the number is expected to rise to 9.2 billion. Nevertheless,
there is no reason why this challenge cannot be overcome. Sufficient land, water, technology and
skills are available. What needs to happen, however, is to overcome the constraints.
The issue is not just that the world’s population will grow by 50% over the next 40 years. The need for
agricultural products will double. Agricultural investment and innovation will need to increase in the
short term. But technology alone is not enough; farmers require more education and collaboration.
There are other challenges, too, such as climate change or the wasted use of available food
resources for the production of biofuel. There also has been a shift in the type of food wanted with
populations moving increasingly to urban areas.
Africa has not yet had a green revolution. It is critical to invest in approaches that go beyond. This
means working with traditional methods, but also finding the most appropriate scientific expertise for
responding to these problems. Transgenic solutions, such as wheat or rice with resistant genes, may
prove more effective, but countries themselves need to decide which genes are safe. A lot of data and
information is available on the benefits of genetically-modified seeds. These can help bridge the gap.
Food security is not just an economic or humanitarian issue. It also affects social and political stability.
However, to ensure food security, both productivity and distribution need to be improved. This means
making better use of science and new technologies. For some countries, genetically modified crops
are not necessarily required if self-sufficient. Improving food productivity is important, but so is
ensuring that crops reach their markets. An enormous amount of post-harvest waste can be remedied
through better management and storage.
Other forms of intervention can make significant differences, such as improved mechanization. In
Africa, only 10% of agriculture is done by tractor. Irrigation, too, needs to be increased. Four percent
of the land in Africa is artificially watered, compared to 20% in Asia. More high-yield seeds and
fertilizer also need to be used. In Tanzania, only 9 kg of fertilizers per hectare are spread, compared
to 50 kg in South Africa. Another challenge is making more trained extension workers available to
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local farmers. A further factor is the need to involve women more. Women are at the centre of
agriculture in Africa, and yet only receive a fraction of the training. Another issue is helping farmers,
particularly those without properly defined land rights, to receive better access to loan credits.
The elimination of farm subsidies, trade tariffs and price controls can contribute enormously to greater
productivity. Protectionism tends to benefit farmers in the richer countries rather than those in the
developing world. This can lead to huge disparities. But subsidies are also a huge waste of money.
Far more effective would be to channel such funds into development aid. These could then be applied
to improve storage facilities or the quality and quantity of rice or coffee production. A better
environment for investment is needed, particularly for the small farmer.
Session Panellists
William H. Gates III, Co-Chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USA
Jakaya M. Kikwete, President of Tanzania
Ellen Kullman, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, DuPont, USA
Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam; Chair, 2010 ASEAN
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Managing Director, World Bank, Washington DC; Global Agenda Council on
Corruption
Patricia A. Woertz, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM),
USA; Co-Chair of the Governors Meeting for Consumer Industries 2010; Co-Chair of the World
Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010
Moderated by
Prannoy Roy, Chairman, New Delhi Television (NDTV), India
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Edward Girardet. The views expressed are those of certain
Economic Forum.

Friday 29 January
Keywords: food security, agriculture, international aid, development, humanitarian, investment
Recommended reading for: international aid workers, development agencies, bankers, policy-makers,
foundations, Members of the Global Agenda Council on Food Security
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190 gri/internet security

Securing Cyberspace
A new piece of malicious software is introduced every 30 seconds.
What must be done to decrease the vulnerability of the Internet?
Key Points
• It is difficult to target cyber crime when criminals have no identity, country or boundaries
• Cyber attacks have gone from computer hacking for the sake of being malicious, to making money
through fraud, to state involvement and espionage
• More international cooperation is needed to investigate cyber attacks and try to solve the attribution
problem
Synopsis
Over 2 million viruses, worms, back doors or Trojans have emerged over the past two years, and the
threats are constantly growing. People used to hack computers for notoriety, and then as a criminal
activity. Today, companies and nation-states are also behind cyber attacks, in the form of industrial
and military espionage, respectively.
Attribution is a fundamental issue. The biggest challenge is identifying who is behind a cyber attack
and from where it comes. Cyber criminals are anonymous and operate without boundaries.
There are at least 10 countries with national intelligence services sophisticated enough to launch an
attack and make it appear as if it came from elsewhere. The question is: at what stage does a cyber
attack constitute an act of war? How does one retaliate, and what deterrence plans can be put in
place? What is the government’s role in protecting non-military assets?
More international cooperation is needed to investigate cyber attacks and try to solve the attribution
problem. With 4.5 billion users around the world, an international framework may be one way to
address the issue.
Such a framework or treaty should ensure that countries commit to protecting their citizens, freedom
of access and information sharing, and that no country harbour (cyber) terrorists. As the biggest user
group, children are most likely to give away information, often naively; they need to be protected.
Traditionally, cyber security has been about building defensive “castles and bigger moats” to block
viruses. But, as attacks become more sophisticated, there is a need to use cyber tools to respond; a
small attack requires a big response.
In the future, users may need to have an authenticated “driver’s license” when cruising the Internet
superhighway. Although the Internet is a place of freedom that allows anonymity, a price may have to
be paid for increased security. Finding the right balance between security and privacy is a constant
challenge.
1
Session Panellists
Susan M. Collins, Senator from Maine (Republican), USA
André Kudelski, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Kudelski Group, Switzerland
Craig Mundie, Chief Research and Strategy Officer, Microsoft Corporation, USA
Paul Sagan, President and Chief Executive Officer, Akamai Technologies, USA
Hamadoun I. Touré, Secretary-General, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Geneva;
Global Agenda Council on the Future of Mobile Communications
Moderated by
Jonathan Zittrain, Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Berkman Center for Internet and Society,
USA; Young Global Leader; Global Agenda Council on the Future of the Internet
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by Mark Schulman. The views expressed are those of certain
Economic Forum.

Saturday 30 January
Keywords: Internet users, cyber attack, security, privacy
Recommended reading for: World Economic Forum Information Technology & Telecommunications
Industry Partners, Technology Pioneers, Members of the Global Agenda Councils on International
Security Cooperation, the Future of the Internet

Managing and Mitigating Global Risks

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