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RESEARCH

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December 2010
India
Hotel market
Introspection & Outlook
Knight Frank

KEY TAKEAWAYS
! During 2010-13, the Indian hotel room market for 10 major cities is estimated to
grow from Rs. 74 bn. to Rs.119 bn. translating to a 17% CAGR

! Supply expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% will surpass the growth in demand
which is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% during 2010-13

! A total of 24211, 8709 and 3057 additional rooms is expected to become


operational by 2013 across upscale, midscale and economy category of hotels

! Despite a similar quantum of room demand in Mumbai and the NCR in 2013, the
size of Mumbai market, at Rs. 42 bn, will be substantially greater than the NCR
market size of Rs. 28 bn

! We foresee Mumbai, followed by Goa, to be the most attractive hospitality


markets in India for the next three years
December 2010
India
hotel Market
Introspection & Outlook

India an attractive cruise tourism destination with state of the art

Editorial infrastructure. This policy has been approved with an aim to attract the
right segment of foreign tourists to cruise shipping in India and to
Over the last decade, India has gained recognition as a key travel and popularize cruise shipping among domestic tourists as well.
tourism destination. According to the Travel and Tourism
During the last decade, many global corporations have set up their
Competiveness Report 2009 published by the World Economic Forum,
operational base in India, which has led to an increase in foreign
India ranks 11th in the Asia Pacific region and 62nd overall in the list of
business travel to India. Also, India, being a key leisure destination,
the world's most attractive destinations. With unparallel growth
travellers from across the world visit India on a year round basis.
prospects coupled with the potential to generate unlimited business
Increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals in India, has been an
quantum, the Indian travel and tourism industry is expected to become
instrumental factor driving growth of the Travel and Tourism sector in
the second largest employer in the world by 2019.
India. Similarly, the growth in domestic output has resulted in an
On the development front, government support to the travel and increase in domestic tourist visits by almost three folds during 2000
tourism sector has been one of the key factors driving the growth of and 2009. The growth in the travel and tourism sector in India has its
this sector in India. Initiatives taken to upgrade and expand the direct positive impact on the growth of the hospitality sector in India.
country's infrastructure like airports, national highways, rail and ports Growth in tourism will result in an increase in demand for hotel room
have had a positive impact on the sector. and also increase in food and beverage business. The contribution of
the hospitality sector in India GDP is captured under “Hotel and
According to the Press Note 4 (2001 Series), released by DIPP, Ministry Restaurant” sector.
of Commerce and Industry, the government has allowed 100% foreign Figure 2
investment under the automatic route in the hotel and tourism sector. Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India and World GDP
During the last five years, this sector has witnessed substantial growth 70,000 6
in the FDI inflow in India. From USD 309 million till 2005, the
60,000
cumulative FDI inflow up till 2009 has grown to USD 1,793 million. 5

50,000
Tourism in India is typically driven by leisure and business travellers. In 4
USD Billion

recent times, the sector has witnessed newer formats. Among these 40,000
formats, medical tourism and eco-tourism are fast gaining popularity. 3
30,000
The government is taking active steps to promote such new
2
formats.Another emerging format in Indian tourism is the cruise 20,000
tourism. In June 2008, the government of India approved the Cruise
1
Shipping Policy of the Ministry of Shipping with an objective to make 10,000

Figure 1 0 0
FDI In India - Hotel and Tourism
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
1997

1998

2,400
World GDP (USD Bn.) Foreign Tourist Arrivals (In Mn)
2,132
Source: Ministry of Tourism, IMF, Knight Frank Research
2,000
1,793
A number of policy initiatives taken by the government of India have
1,600 facilitated the growth of investments into the hospitality sector. The
USD Million

Government of India in the Union Budget of 2007-08 introduced a 5


1,200
1,200
year tax holiday incentive scheme for 2, 3 and 4 Star hotels in the
National Capital Region. The scheme was applicable to projects that
800
661 593 completed construction and commenced operation between 1st April
489 539

400 340
2007 and 31st March 2010. This provision in Union Budget 2010-11, was
309
180 172 further extended till 31st July 2010. Also, the government of India, in its
0 Finance Act, 2009, inserted Section 35 AD to allow all hotels rated 2
2007

2008

2009

2010
July
Till
2005

2006

Star and above in any location, a 100% deduction in capital


expenditure (other than on land, goodwill and financial instrument),
Year
given the property commences operation on or after 1st April 2010. This
Cumulative Annual
led to many hotel brands expanding their base in India.
Source: DIPP, Knight Frank Research

01
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Figure 3 taken by the central government, investments in the hotel and


Domestic Tourist Visits and India GDP
restaurant sector have increased more than 60% between 2004-05 and
50,000 800
2008-09. From Rs. 12,025 crore in 2004-05 it increased to about
Rs. 19,344 crore in 2008-09, registering a CAGR of approximately 13%.
40,000
600 Figure 5
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Constant Prices)-Hotel
Rs Billion

30,000
and Restaurant sector, India
400
25,000
20,000

20,000 18,991 19,344


200
10,000 16,943
16,051
Rs Crores
15,000
0 0 12,025
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
1997

1998

10,000

India GDP (Rs. Bn.) Domestic Tourist Visits (In Mn)


Source: Ministry of Tourism, IMF, Knight Frank Research
5,000
Besides, in November 2009, the Reserve Bank of India re-classified
hotels as infrastructure companies and allowed entities in the hotel
0
sector to avail External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) up to USD 100
2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09
2004-05

million per financial year under the “Automatic route”. In August 2010,
the RBI in its move to further liberalize the hotel sector, allowed Year
entities in the hotel sector to avail ECBs of more than USD 100 million Source: CMIE, Knight Frank Research

per financial year under the “Approval Route”. Proceeds of the ECB Due to the growing share of corporate business travellers in the hotel
should be used for capital expenditure for permissible end uses and sector, most of the hospitality players are also focusing on new
not for acquisition of land. This move in effect is expected to further business formats and hotels catering to the needs and requirements of
boost the inflow of capital in India’s hotel sector. corporate travellers. Meanwhile, many brands across India have come
up with serviced apartments and boutique hotels with an aim to
Figure 5 highlights the gross fixed capital formation or investment into
provide home like ambience in a hotel, to suit the needs of corporate
the hotel and restaurant sector between 2004-05 and 2008-09. Due to
travellers.
a favorable hospitality economy in India and positive policy initiatives
Figure 4
Contribution of Hotel and Restaurant Sector In India GDP
Constant Prices Objective of the Study
70,000 65,968 1.75
63,687 The prime objective of the study is to assess the hotel market scenario
60,000 58,484 with respect to its demand and supply. There are a number of reasons
1.7
51,043 behind focusing on this particular aspect of the hotel industry. It is
50,000
43,336 1.65 pertinent to have a convergence between demand and supply in a
Rs Crores

40,000 particular sphere in order to attain sustainable growth. In case of the


1.6 hotel market, demand is necessary to gauge the level of development
30,000
required while supply denotes the development planned. Thus, the
1.55 study strives to measure the performance of the existing hotels in
20,000
terms of ARRs, occupancy rates and other operational characteristics
1.5
10,000 over the past few years, as well as analyse the present market
conditions regarding hotel development. With an assessment of the
0 1.45
operational and upcoming hotels the study has made an attempt to
2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09
2004-05

project the demand-supply dynamics of the industry by the end


Year of 2013.
Contribution to India GDP (Rs. Crores) % share in GDP

Source: CMIE, Knight Frank Research

02
December 2010
India
hotel Market
Introspection & Outlook

A secondary objective of the study has been to identify a city’s growth bearing on the hospitality market of that city. For cities like the NCR,
corridors with maximum upcoming hotel developments and to Mumbai and Bangalore, a separate model for upscale category hotels
determine the impact of the demand-supply implications on the same. has been developed since the factors affecting the demand for rooms
The study has, thus, endeavoured to present both sides of the demand in this category differ from the factors influencing room demand for
and supply scenario of the hotel industry. midscale and economy category hotels. In all the remaining cities,
upscale, midscale and economy category hotels have been clubbed
together for estimating room demand.
Coverage and Approach
The hospitality market of India in terms of number of rooms demanded
In order to comprehend dynamics of the hospitality industry, the hotels
per day is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% during the period 2010
were segmented into three broad categories. The 5-Star and 5-Star
to 2013. However, the growth in supply will surpass the growth in
deluxe hotels were categorized as 'upscale', the 4-Star as 'midscale'
demand since supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% during the
and the 3-Star and budget hotels as 'economy'. However, exceptions
same period. A total of 24211, 8709 and 3057 additional rooms are
may be there in some cities where the star category hotels may have
expected to become operational in India by 2013 across upscale,
different nomenclatures.
midscale and economy category hotels respectively.
Figure 6
The study has covered ten key cities in the hospitality industry. It
India Hospitality Market (2010-13)
encompasses the National Capital Region (NCR), Mumbai, Bengaluru,
100,000 70%
Goa, Pune, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata and Ahmedabad. An
in-depth primary survey of select existing hotels was carried out in
81.296 65%
these aforementioned cities. A sample of 250 hotels across all these 80,000 75,967

ten cities was selected in such a way that proper representation of the 66,487 60%
No. of Keys

three categories of hotels had been maintained. The directory of the 60,000
53,412
Federation of Hotels and Restaurants Association of India (FHRAI) has 55%
43,828
been the primary base of our hotel selection. However, during the field 40,000 38,789
35,503
survey we took the discretion to include those hotels which were not in 32,660 50%

the FHRAI directory but were found to be important. In addition to the


20,000
existing hotels, we have also surveyed the upcoming hotels in the 45%

three categories across the ten cities.


0 40%
2012 F

2013 F
2010 E

2011 F

The primary survey was conducted during the period August to October
2010. This has helped us in tracking the historical trends of ARR and
Demand Supply Occupancy (RHS)
occupancy rates from the period 2005 to Q2 2010. The trends
Source: Knight Frank Research
witnessed during the period have been of great significance while
Figure 7
estimating the demand. The study also elucidates other important India Upcoming Supply (2010-13)
issues such as guest composition of a hotel in terms of foreign and 12,000
domestic traveller, share of various expense heads in the total revenue
of a hotel and average rack rates of different room formats. These have 10,000 9,625
aided in capturing the past and present market scenario in the cities
covered in the study. On the supply front, we have strived to include all 8,000
No. of Rooms

the key upcoming hotels in the three segments, though for a few cities
6,000 5,714
information on only upscale and midscale hotels could be obtained. 5,565

4,000
3,231 3,307
Outlook 2,363
2,000 1,835
1,087 1,280
In order to augment the quality and depth of its analysis, Knight Frank 684 743
543
Research has formulated various econometric models to forecast the 0
2012

2013
2010

2011

demand supply dynamics in 10 major cities of the country from the


period 2010 to 2013. The econometric model for each city has been Year
developed after studying the various factors that have a significant Upscale Midscale Economy
Source: Knight Frank Research

03
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The huge influx of incremental rooms in India will result in the Figure 10
Demand Supply Outlook (2010-13)
occupancy levels of hotels for most of the cities falling considerably
90%
over the next three years. According to our estimates, occupancy level
across all the cities except Mumbai and Goa will witness a falling trend 2013
80%
from 2010 to 2013.

70%
Among the 10 cities considered in the report, the NCR will comprise the 2010

Occupancy
largest share of demand and supply followed by Mumbai, Bangalore 2010
60% 2010
and Hyderabad over the next three years. We foresee Mumbai, followed
2010 2013
by Goa, to be the most attractive hospitality markets in India for the 2010
50%
next three years. Strong growth in demand, higher occupancy level, 2013 2013

increasing ARRs and low incremental supply over the next three years 40% 2013
are some of the reasons for the hospitality sector of both these markets
to outperform other cities of India going forward. 30%

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000
Figure 8 4,000

City-wise Distribution of Estimated Room Demand in 2013


Mumbai - 24% Supply (No. of Keys)

NCR - 24% Mumbai NCR Bangalore Hyderabad Chennai


Pune - 6% Source: Knight Frank Research
Ahmedabad - 3% Note: 1. The size of the bubble represents the number of rooms demanded per day
2. The number in the bubble represents the year
Goa - 7%
Chennai - 8% Figure 11
Jaipur - 4% Demand Supply Outlook (2010-13)
Bengaluru - 9% 90%
Kolkata - 3%
Hyderabad - 11% 80%

Total Room Demand: 43,828 Rooms 70%


2010
Occupancy

Source: Knight Frank Research 2013


Figure 9 2010
60%
2010
City-wise Distribution of Estimated Room Supply in 2013
2010
Mumbai - 16% 50%
2010
NCR - 24% 2013 2013
Pune - 7% 40% 2013
2013
Ahmedabad - 4%
Goa - 6% 30%
Chennai - 9%
2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000
1,000

Jaipur - 5%
Bengaluru - 12% Supply (No. of Keys)

Kolkata - 4% Pune Ahmedabad Goa Jaipur Kolkata


Hyderabad - 12% Source: Knight Frank Research
Note: 1. The size of the bubble represents the number of rooms demanded per day
Total Room Supply: 81,296 Rooms 2. The number in the bubble represents the year
Source: Knight Frank Research
During 2010-13, the Indian hotel room market for 10 major cities is
Figure 10 and 11 represent the estimated demand, supply and
estimated to grow from Rs. 74 bn. to Rs.119 bn. translating to a 17%
occupancy of the hotel industry for all the 10 cities in 2010 and 2013.
CAGR. Despite a similar quantum of room demand in Mumbai and the
The size of the bubble is the estimated room demand per day and the
NCR in 2013, the size of Mumbai market, at Rs 42 bn, will be
number inside the bubble signifies the year. It is evident from these
substantially greater than the NCR market size of Rs 28 bn.
figures that amongst the 10 cities covered in the report, Mumbai and
Goa will be the most attractive hospitality markets by 2013. By 2013,
the Mumbai hospitality market will attain the size equivalent to the
NCR in terms of number of room demand. However, in terms of supply,
Mumbai will be significantly behind the NCR.

04
December 2010
India
hotel Market
RESEARCH
Introspection & Outlook

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