dime con quién andas...

A survey exploring the nature of

Hispanic social networks
and their potential to impact turnout

An ongoing research project for the

Texas Democratic Trust

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 Latinos are the “sleeping giant” of
Texas politics — a phrase
repeated so often it has become a
cliché.

Nearly 37 percent of the state’s

population of about 24.8 million
people is Latino, but almost any
political expert will tell you that
the group does not fully exercise
its strength in elections.
Pinpointing if and when Latinos
will begin wielding their voting

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 hispanic turnout
new mexico 54%
nevada 52%
colorado 51%
texas 38%

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 what’s different
about nm latinos?

NM

TX

Doña Ana County El Paso County

64% 48%
(Source: El Paso Elections Office and Doña Ana Elections Office)

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 connected
The surprising power of our social
networks and how they shape our lives.
Nicholas A. Christakis, MD, PhD
James H. Fowler, PhD

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 connected on voter turnout cascades
•People do not decide in isolation whether or not they
will vote.
•Controlling for alternative sources of similar
behavior, such as having the same income,
education, ideology, or level of political interest,
the typical subject is about 15% more likely to
vote if one of his discussion partners votes.
•They saw a correlation between people who are
directly connected via a common friend and also
between people who are indirectly connected via
a common friend.  In other words, if you vote,
then it increases the likelihood that your friends’
friends vote.
”
Saturday, January 15, 2011
 Predictors of Voting

Age Education Family History

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 age
Anglos are 3.5 times more likely to
be 65+
Anglos
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Hispanics
65+

51-64
Anglo Median Age:

40 36-50
Hispanic Median
Age:
19-35
28.8
<18

Source: 2008 ACS

More than 1 in3 Hispanics are 18 or

younger

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 education
Anglos
Hispanics
Anglos are 2.8 times more likely to graduate college
20% 30% 40% 50%
0% 10%

Grad School

Bachelor’s

Some College

High School

Did not complete High School

Source: 2008 ACS

Hispanics are
5 times more likely to drop out of
high school

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 talking politics

“
If those in your social network vote, and make that
known, then there is a much higher probability that

”
you will vote also. We are all influenced by those
who we view as similar to us.
It's the Conversations, Stupid!
The Link between Social Interaction and Political Choice
by Valdis Krebs

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 Knowing the potential and the obstacles,
The Texas Democratic Trust,
with the help of Annie’s
List, commissioned:
• Project New West to conduct
ethnographies.
• Pineda Consulting to conduct a survey
exploring the social networks of Hispanics and
the differences between high and low
propensity voters.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 la meta final:
to get hispanics who vote to
influence hispanics who don’t

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 To do that we need to know: HP LP

•Do their networks intersect? If so, where?

•Who among each group is likely to care and talk

politics?

•What are the factors that keep the conversation

going?

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 if talking politics = increased turnout
we explored
• What Latinos talk about.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 exploring what latinos talk about
•What do they talk about with ”their closest family
members and friends”?
•What issues relating to politics have they talked
about most recently, and why?
•Are they likely to share their political opinions
with others? And if so, what separates talkers
from non-talkers?

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 if talking politics = increased turnout
we explored
• What Latinos talk about.
• Latino attitudes on politics and voting.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 exploring latino attitudes
on politics and voting
•Agreement with value statements:
•Voting as civic duty.
•Faith in the system and that their vote will be
counted.
•That sometimes they don’t feel motivated to
vote.
•Why, in their own words, do they sometimes feel
not motivated to vote.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 if talking politics = increased turnout
we explored
• What Latinos talk about.
• Latino attitudes on politics and voting.
• Who Latinos talk with.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 exploring who latinos talk with
•How many people do they talk to about
important issues?
•Who are the 1 or 2 people in their lives most
interested in politics? And what is their:
•Level of respect for them?
•Frequency of communication?
•Ethnicity?

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 if talking politics = increased turnout
we explored
• What Latinos talk about.
• Latino attitudes on politics and voting.
• Who Latinos talk with.
• The role culture and ethnicity play in
Latino lives.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 exploring the role culture and
ethnicity play in the life of texas latinos
•Diversity within family/friends/co-worker
networks.
•Interest in politics among family/friends/co-
workers.
•Importance of Hispanic identity by itself and
generationally.
•Perceptions on being Hispanic in contrast to
Anglos (views on family and voting).

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 methodology
date conducted
June 20 - July 1 2010.
•800 Hispanics with a history of
survey sample voting in Bexar, Dallas, Harris
and Hidalgo counties.
•Sample was drawn from a list of
voters.
•100 interviews of ’08-only
voters were conducted on cell
phones.
margin of error 3
survey languageInterviews were conducted by a
bilingual phone bank.
Sample weighted by county, high/low
sample weight propensity of vote and ’08-only
voters.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 definitions
hispanic voters
Hispanics with voting history.
Hispanic voters who voted in the last two
general
high propensity voters
elections and voted in any of the last 7
constitutional amendment or primary
elections.
OR
Hispanic voters who voted in either of the
last two general elections and voted in 3
of the last 7 constitutional amendment or
primary elections.
low propensity voters voters who are not high propensity voters.
Hispanics

high density precincts

Precincts where 30 percent or more of
registered voters are tagged as Hispanic.

low density precincts

Precincts where less than 30 percent of
registered voters are tagged as Hispanic.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 what latinos talk about

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 talking with closest family
members and friends
HP
politics and government 61% 58%
relationships Latino Republicans
54% 49%
out talk Latino
religion 50% by41%
Democrats 26
points when talking
work issues 49% 52%
about politics. 13 point gap
between high
raising children 40% 53% propensity and low
propensity Hispanic
personal finance 33% 29% voters in talking
politics.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 attention paid to politics
A lot A fair amount Not much
None at all

100% 5% 9%
19%
31%

75%
37%

35%
50%

39%
25%
24%

0%
Low Propensity

High Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 most talked about political issue
0% 13% 25% 38% 50%

Job Market

Health Reform

Wars

High School Dropout

Immigration

High Propensity
Low Propensity
LP Spanish at Home

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 why talked about political issue
8% 15% 23% 30%
0%

Worried about discrimination

Effect on my family/friends

Lack of jobs is a problem

People need health care

Against the war

Everybody’s talking about it

High Propensity
Low Propensity
LP Spanish at Home

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 share political decisions
Keep Private
Share
56%
100%
61%

75%

50%
43%
37%
25%

0%
Low Propensity
High Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 similarities between high and
low propensity talkers
HP LP

LP HP
men
kids
mostly
college
at
18-59
home
dem
grad 68%
66%
63% 67%
64%
69%
66%
218-49
primaries
married
church men 64%
65%
61% 64%
62%
2nd generation 62%
employed 64% 60%
62%

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 attitudes on politics and voting

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 getting beyond socially
acceptable responses
important civic duty
Strongly disagree 100%
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree

75%

50%

25%

0%

High Propensity
Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 getting beyond socially
acceptable responses
faith in fairness of the
election system
Strongly disagree 100%
12% 9%
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree 13% 15%
75%
36% 35%

50%

38% 38% 25%

0%

High Propensity
Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 getting beyond socially
acceptable responses
sometimes i am not
motivated to vote
Strongly disagree 40% 31% 100%
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
75%

12%
17%
35% 50%

21%
25%

21%
20%
0%
High Propensity
Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 getting beyond socially
acceptable responses
High Propensity

top reasons not motivated Low Propensity

LP age 65+

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Candidates

Empty promises

Not convenient

Don’t like choices

Not enough info

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 who latinos talk with

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 size of social network
1-3 4-6
7 or more
100%

26% 31%

75%

32%
35%
50%

35% 25%
28%

0%
High Propensity
Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 entre familia
1 or 2 people most interested in politics

“family”

64%High Propensity
68%Low Propensity
73%LP Women 18-49

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 viejos y viejas dominate

High Propensity34%
Husband 18%
Wife 16%
“husband” Low Propensity31%
“wife” Husband 20%
Wife 11%

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 children can be key influencers

“son” “daughter”
HP: 13% HP: 9%
LP: 17% LP: 8%

1 in 4 is likely to be a child.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 people / person hispanic
Yes, both are Yes, one is
No, not Hispanic
100%
16% 7%
11%
75% 19% 82%

50% 65%

25%

0%

Low Propensity
High Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 level of respect and
frequency of communication
a great deal of respect
61% High Propensity

59% Low Propensity

at least once a week, if not every day

83% High Propensity
83% Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 hispanic social networks High Propensity
Low Propensity

0% 18% 35% 53% 70%

61%
Married other Hispanics
68%

48%
Friends are Hispanics
59%

36%
Coworkers are Hispanics

45%

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 political networks High Propensity
Low Propensity

0% 13% 25% 38% 50%

47%
Family interested in politics
46%

41%
Family has the same political views
46%

Friends interested in politics 46%

33%

Friends have the same political views 34%

35%

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 role of culture and ethnicity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 hispanic identity A. Being Hispanic is a
matter of personal
Doesn’t define me
and cultural pride to
Pride me.
B. Being Hispanic
100% 31% 25% doesn’t really define
me.

75%
71%
64%

50%

25%

0%

High Propensity Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 general hispanic identity
A. Being Hispanic
means more to my
As much to me parents and their
More to my parents generation than it does
B. Being Hispanic
53% 100% matters at least as
45%
much to me as it
does the generation
75%

50%
44%
39%

25%

0%
High Propensity Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 cares more about family
A. Hispanics care
more about family
Anglos than Anglos.
Hispanics

B. Anglos care more

80%
about family than
4% Hispanics.
67% 5%
65%
60%

40%

20%

0%
Low Propensity
High Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 cares more about politics
A. Hispanics care
Hispanics more government
Anglos
and politics than
Anglos.

80% B. Anglos care more

19%
about government
and politics than
18%
Hispanics.
60%
57%
51%

40%

20%

0%
High Propensity
Low Propensity

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 social network overlap

(in thousands)

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 household snapshot
508 Sendera St.
(North bexar county)
HH Count age propensity votes last first SE PCT

4 21 NVH 0 Campos Jamie F 3039

4 23 NVH 0 Campos Jonathan M 3039
4 52 HI 3 Campos Mary F 3039
4 58 HI 4 Campos Gilbert M 3039

510 e malley blvd

(south bexar county)
HH Count age propensity votes last first SE PCT

4 20 NVH 0 Moreno Matthew M 1054

4 21 LO 2 Moreno Andrew M 1054
4 44 LO 2 Moreno Miroslava F 1054
4 44 HI 3 Moreno Robert M 1054

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 take aways
targets
•High Propensity Voters in High Density
Areas can play a key role in spreading
messages.
•Don’t ignore Latino men who are more
likely to share their political opinions.
•Younger Latinos, especially those who have
gone to college, can be key influencers.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 take aways
shaping messages
•Hispanic pride and identity plays a large role in
shaping the environment and perceptions of Latino
voters, especially low propensity voters.
•Latino elected officials, candidates, and community
leaders can make for more trusted messengers.
•Connecting political messages to “raising children”
can make them more easily integrated into what
Latinos already talk about.
•Remember Latinos talk more about political issues
that directly affect their family and friends personally,
whether that be immigration, jobs or health care.

Saturday, January 15, 2011