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A Priori Probability

Probability calculated by logically examining existing information.

A priori probabilities are most often used within the counting method of calculating probability.
This is because you must use logic to determine what outcomes of an event are possible in order to
determine the number of ways these outcomes can occur.

For example, consider how the price of a share can change. Its price can increase, decrease, or
remain the same. Therefore, according to a priori probability, we can assume that there is a 1-in-3, or
33%, chance of one of the outcomes occurring (all else remaining equal).

Prior Probability
The probability that an event will reflect established beliefs about the event before the arrival of
new evidence or information. Prior probabilities are the original probabilities of an outcome, which be
will updated with new information to create posterior probabilities.

Prior probabilities represent what we originally believed before new evidence is uncovered.
New information is used to produce updated probabilities and is a more accurate measure of a potential
outcome. For example, three acres of land have the labels A, B and C. One acre has reserves of oil below
its surface, while the other two do not. The probability of oil being on acre C is one third, or 0.333. A
drilling test is conducted on acre B, and the results indicate that no oil is present at the location. Since
acres A and C are the only candidates for oil reserves, the prior probability of 0.333 becomes 0.5, as
each acre has one out of two chances.

Conditional Probability
Probability of an event or outcome based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.
Conditional probability is calculated by multiplying the probability of the preceding event by the
updated probability of the succeeding event.

Conditional probabilities are contingent on a previous result. For example, suppose you are
drawing three marbles - red, blue and green - from a bag. Each marble has an equal chance of being
drawn. What is the conditional probability of drawing the red marble after already drawing the blue
one? First, the probability of drawing a blue marble is about 33% because it is one possible outcome out
of three. Assuming this first event occurs, there will be two marbles remaining, with each having a 50%
of being drawn. So, the chance of drawing a blue marble after already drawing a red marble would be
about 16.5% (33% x 50%).

Posterior Probability
The posterior probability of an event is the probability of the event computed following the
collection of new data. One begins with a prior probability of an event and revises it in the light of new
data. For example, if 0.01 of a population has schizophrenia then the probability that a person drawn at
random would have schizophrenia is 0.01. This is the prior probability. If you then learn that that there
score on a personality test suggests the person is schizophrenic, you would adjust your probability
accordingly. The adjusted probability is the posterior probability.

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