Question: What does Carlos Gonzalez’s contract mean for the Colorado Rockies,

should he continue at his pace from 2010, given the presence of another elite
player in Troy Tulowitzki?

Hypothesis: There is an additional value in having multiple “elite” players (5.0+

Wins Above Replacement), even at the expense of quality in other positions on the
roster. For example, teams with more than one “elite” players would reach the
postseason at a rate greater than the team’s cumulative WAR would indicate, or
would perform better in the postseason.

Research:

The following data for all teams from 2002 to 2010 was compiled: total number of
position players who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, total number of pitchers who
accounted for 5.0+ WAR, whether or not the team reached the playoffs, the number
of postseason series victories, the number of individual game victories in the
regular season, the number of individual game victories in the postseason, WAR for
all position players, WAR for all pitchers and total WAR (combining pitchers and
position players). Regression analysis was performed on the above categories (see
Charts 1-9 below).

Results and Discussion:

The results indicated a moderately strong association between any team’s number
of 5.0+ WAR players and their ability to win games in the regular season, as the
correlation coefficient was .54. While the association is moderately strong, it is likely
that it could be accounted for by the strength of the association between composite
team WAR and regular season victories, in which r= .87. Additionally, there was
only a small correlation (r=.30) between the number of 5.0+ WAR pitchers a team
had and the amount of games it was able to win. The r-value was slightly higher
when it came to position players, at .44, indicating that there is slightly more value
in having multiple 5.0+ WAR position players as opposed to pitchers, although it is
possible that this could be accounted for by the fact that there were over twice as
many position players than pitchers (243 to 107) who achieved 5.0+ WAR in the
timeframe studied. There was a very small correlation (r=.06) between the number
of 5.0+ WAR players a team had and the amount of games they won in the
postseason. The correlation was similarly small when it came to the number of
position players and pitchers separately (r=.05 and r=.03, respectively). This
indicates that there is minimal evidence of a team’s consolidation of WAR into few
players improving their chances for success in the postseason. To answer the initial
question, the study demonstrates that even if Carlos Gonzalez maintains his level of
play from 2010, the Colorado Rockies are not guaranteed to make the playoffs even
given two potential 5.0+ WAR players. The success of the team over the length of
his contract will be tied significantly to the ability of the team to build depth on the
roster beyond Gonzalez and Tulowitzki.
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