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May 1 2009
Agency/FDIC Guaranteed Debt Strategy
Supranationals
Guide to the Largest USD Issuers
Supranational organizations generally focus on economic growth
especially in less developed areas, environmental projects, renewable
energy and social goals within a targeted region. Supranational bonds
are debt obligations backed by these organizations, which were
formed and are usually owned collectively by sovereigns. Dollar-
denominated supranational issuance has been increasing in 2009 as
It’s time to vote for your favorite many of these banks have an expanded role supporting economic
recovery and social goals. At the same time, spreads in the sector are
analysts in the Institutional
poised to narrow as non-government markets re-open, helping to offset
Investor All American Fixed- the crowding out effect from government guaranteed issuance that first
Income poll, and pressured spreads in the fourth quarter of last year.
RBS would greatly appreciate
your support. The following article summarizes the largest USD supranational issuers
including World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, International
We hope you have found the Finance Corporation, KfW, and the European Investment Bank. As
Agency/FDIC Strategy Reports seen below, all of the issuers are AAA-rated, 0% risk weighted and fall
to be worthwhile. into the Barclay’s Government-Related Index as supranationals.
Supranational Comparison
If you have not received a Total Debt $ Debt Projected
Issued Issued 2009 Debt Risk Wt
ballot and would like to vote, $/€ bn Rating Ow ners Guarantee Structure 2008 2008 Issuance Outstanding (BIS)
9
Aaa/AAA/ largest, holding (multilateral development
Margaret Kerins & Team IFC NR 24.1% of the capital bank). $6.3 $2.0 $8.0 $21.3 0%
European Based Issuers
None, but strong implicit
Federal Agency Debt support from its ow ners
Aaa/AAA/ (multilateral development
EIB AAA 27 EU Member States bank). € 59.5 $35.5 € 70.0 € 254.2 0%
Margaret Kerins, CFA 80% German Federal
Aaa/AAA/ Gov't, 20% German Guarantee from German
Managing Director / Agency Strategy KfW AAA States Gov't € 75.3 $35.6 € 75.0 € 347.5 0%
Source: IBRD, IADB, IFC, EIB, KfW, RBS, Note: KfW and IFC as of 12/31/08, IBRD and IADB as of 6/30/08, EIB as of 12/31/07, Bank
(800) 426 4443 for International Settlement assigns a 0% risk w eight to claims on multilateral developments banks under Basel II Framew ork.
Please contact your appropriate regulator for further guidance.
Margaret.Kerins@rbs.com
Spread Comparison: Historically, the largest supranational issuers
Ryan Graf traded flat to rich to US agencies, with the differential increasing in
2008 due to the GSE’s housing exposure. This relationship reversed
Agency Strategy
when Fed intervention drove US agency spreads tighter than
(800) 426 4443 supranational spreads. Recently, foreign banks have been able to
Ryan.Graf@rbs.com issue senior unsecured debt and covered bonds. As these markets re-
open, supply pressure should ease, narrowing supranational spreads.
This trend is already underway as seen below.
www.rbsm.com/strategy
The Royal Bank of Scotland
]
Supra Spread Performance vs. Tsy
250
Spread (bp)
150
100
50
0
May-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
IADB 4.375 9/12 EIB 4.625 3/12 KfW 4.75 5/12
FNMA 4.875 5/12 IBRD 7.125 6/10
Source: RBS
150 1944 and is the principle member of the five institutions that comprise
100 the World Bank Group.1 The World Bank is headquartered in
50 Washington DC, is SEC exempt, and provides medium- and long-term
0 financing to governments and government-guaranteed projects in
Ma y Jun A ug O ct D e c F e b A pr developing countries. World Bank focuses on fighting poverty and
08 08 08 08 08 09 09
hunger, education, gender equality, child mortality, maternal health,
7 .1 2 5 % 2 0 1 0 7 .6 2 5 % 2 0 2 3
disease, and the environment.2
S o u rc e : R B S , IB R D
Who owns IBRD? World Bank is owned by its 185 member countries.
The five largest shareholders include the United States (16.4% of total
subscribed capital), Japan (7.9%), Germany (4.5%), France (4.3%),
and the United Kingdom (4.3%).
S&P’s bases its stable outlook and triple-A rating on World Bank’s
‘‘very strong capital position’’ which includes $79.3 bn in callable
capital from countries S&P rates ‘AAA’, loan and guarantee portfolios
1 The World Bank Group includes the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance
Corporation (IFC) the International Development Association (IDA), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the
International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID)
2 World Bank: 2008 Annual Report
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTABOUTUS/EXTANNREP/0,,menuPK:1397243~pagePK:64168427~piPK:641684
35~theSitePK:1397226,00.html
2
The Royal Bank of Scotland
which have performed very well historically with credit risk declining
each year since 2003, and adequate liquidity.3
IB R D G ro s s Is s u a n c e b y Y e a r
40
35
35
30
25
U S D bn
19 19
20
15 12 13
10 11
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 E st
S o u rc e : R B S , IB R D
IB R D U S D L a rg e R e c e n t B o n d s
7 40
P ric in g S p rd v s . M id S w a p s
6 30
5 20
10
4
0
$ B illio n
3
-1 0
2 -2 0
1 -3 0
0 -4 0
5 yr 1 yr F lt 1 yr M T N 1 .1 6 yr 2 yr 3 yr 2 yr C a ll
S o u rc e : R B S , IA D B
3
The Royal Bank of Scotland
IBRD Distribution: The investor base for the three most recent USD
global deals issued by World Bank was dominated by Central Banks
while the geographic distribution was dominated by Asia as seen
IB R D R e c e n t U S D Is s u a n c e D is trib u tio n b y In v e s to r T yp e
3%
15%
58%
24%
C e n tra l B a n k s B a n k s /C o rp s F u n d M a n a g e rs P e n s io n /In s u ra n c e
S o u rc e : R B S , IB R D
IB R D R e c e n t U S D Is s u a n c e D is trib u tio n b y R e g io n
11%
17%
51%
21%
4
The Royal Bank of Scotland
150
poverty, promoting sustainable energy, water and infrastructure
100
projects, promoting education and innovation and creating economic
50
opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean. The bank provides
0 financing to private enterprises and regional and local governments for
Ma y Jun A ug O ct D e c F e b A pr projects working towards economic and social development in low-
08 08 08 08 08 09 09
income regions. For example, in 2008, $3.9 bn financed projects to
5% 2011 3 .5 % 2 0 1 3
reduce poverty and enhance social equity, representing 34% of the
S o u rc e : R B S , IA D B $11.2 billion in approved loans. IADB is SEC exempt and is
headquartered in Washington, DC.
Who owns IADB? The Bank is owned by its 48 member countries with
the borrowing countries holding about 50% of the shares. The U.S. is
the largest holder of capital at 30% followed by Argentina (10.8%),
Brazil (10.8%), Mexico (6.9%) and Venezuela (5.8%).
Debt Outstanding and Issuance: IADB primarily issues fixed rate debt
IADB Capital Market Funding 2008 (97% of 2008 issuance) which is typically swapped to floating rate
3%
10% debt. In addition, the bank issues discount notes to manage its short-
9%
term cash flow needs.
o At the end of FY2008 (6/30/08), IADB’s debt outstanding
11% totaled $49.4 bn compared with $45 bn at the end of FY2007.
67% o In FY2008, IADB issued $11.1 bn equivalent debt versus $6.1
bn in 2007.
USD AUD NZD ZAR Others o About 67% or $7.4 bn of FY2008 issuance was in USD as seen
Source: RBS, IABD
to the right. This included $3.75 bn in three benchmark deals
with 3yr, 5yr and 10yr maturities as seen below.
o IADB projects FY2009 issuance in the $15 to $20 bn range.
5
The Royal Bank of Scotland
IA D B G ro s s Is s u a n c e b y C u rre n c y
1 5 .0
U S D bn
1 1 .1
1 0 .0 9 .1
5 .4 6 .1
4 .7 4 .9
5 .0
0 .0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 E st
USD AUD NZD MX N CAD ZAR O th e rs
S o u rc e : R B S , IA D B
IA DB US D B o n d s Is s u e d in 2 0 0 8 & 2 0 0 9
3 .0 0 0 100
P ric in g S p rd v s . M id S w a p s
2 .5 0 0 80
60
2 .0 0 0
40
1 .5 0 0
$ B illio n
20
1 .0 0 0
0
0 .5 0 0 -2 0
0 .0 0 0 -4 0
5y r 10y r 3y r 2 y r F lt 5y r
So urce: RB S, IA DB
IADB Distribution: The investor base for the two most recent USD
deals issued by IADB was dominated by Central Banks with
widespread geographic distribution as seen below.
IADB Recent USD Distribution Region IADB Recent USD Distribution Investor Type
18% 5%
24%
47% 47%
35%
24%
Central Bks Banks/Corps
Asia Americas EMEA
Fund Mgrs Pension/Insur Source: RBS, IADB
Source: RBS, IADB
6
The Royal Bank of Scotland
200
150 investments in private enterprise where sufficient private capital is not
100 available.5 IFC is a member of the World Bank Group whose activities
50 are coordinated with and complement the other World Bank Group
0 members. IFC is guided by five strategic pillars which include:
Ma y Jun A ug O ct D e c F e b A pr strengthening the focus on frontier markets, building partnerships with
08 08 08 08 08 09 09
emerging market players, ensuring environmental and social
5 .1 2 5 % 2 0 1 1 3 .5 % 2 0 1 3
S o u rc e : R B S , IF C
sustainability, promoting private sector growth, and developing local
financial markets. High profile projects include financing for a meat
processing company in Brazil and a pulp mill in Uruguay. IFC is also
helping private enterprises in emerging markets deal with the current
financial and economic crisis.
Who owns IFC? IFC is owned by its 181 member countries. The US is
the largest holder of capital at 24%. After the US, the five largest
shareholders are Japan (6%), France (5%), Germany (5%), the UK
(5%), and Canada (3%).
Guarantee: Like World Bank, IFC’s debt instruments are not direct
obligations of the member countries, but the debt is collectively
backed by the strength of its members.
IF C G ro s s Is s u a n c e b y C u rre n c y
9
8 8
7
6
6
U S D bn
5
4 3 .5
3 3
3 2 .8
2 1 .8
1
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 E st
USD AUD NZD CAD ZAR JP Y O th e r
S o u rc e : R B S , IF C
IF C 2 0 0 8 G lo a b a l B o n d D is trib u tio n b y In v e s to r T yp e
10%
20%
6%
64%
F u n d M a n a g e rs C e n tra l B a n k s B a n k s /In s ./P e n . O th e r O ffic ia l In s t.
S o u rc e : R B S , IF C
IF C 2 0 0 8 G lo a b a l B o n d D is trib u tio n b y R e g io n
25%
40%
35%
A m e ric a s A s ia E u ro p e , M id d le E a s t, a n d O th e rs
S o u rc e : R B S , IF C
8
The Royal Bank of Scotland
Source: RBS , EIB Who owns EIB? The bank is owned by the 27 EU member countries,
who have all subscribed to the bank’s capital. Germany, France, Italy,
EIB A verage Spreads vs. Swaps and the UK are the largest subscribers of capital with each owning
125 16.2%.
100
75
50 Guarantee: EIBs debt instruments are not direct obligations of the
25
0 member countries, but the debt is collectively supported by the
-25 strength of joint EU ownership and the capital commitments.
-50
-75
M ay Jul Sep No v Dec M ar A pr Capital: At the end of 2007, EIB had €164.8 bn in subscribed capital,
08 08 08 08 08 09 09 including €8.2 bn in paid in capital and €156.6 bn in callable capital,
2011-12 2013-15 2016-18
which is accessible if the bank needs the funds to meet its obligations.
Source: RBS , EIB
EIB had total shareholder’s equity of €34.5 bn. On 3/4/09, a €67 bn
capital increase was approved bringing total subscribed capital to
€232.4 bn.
E IB F u n d in g b y C u rre n c y 2 0 0 8 Debt Issuance & Outstanding: EIB funds loans through large
benchmark debt issuance, public bonds and smaller private
14% placements in core currencies of USD, EUR and GBP as seen to the
right. In 2008, USD issuance dominated driven by very attractive
15% 43% funding versus other currencies due to the USD/EUR basis swap rates.
o At the end of 2007, EIB’s debt outstanding totaled €254.2 bn.
o In 2008, EIB issued €59.5 bn versus €54.7 bn in 2007
28% dominated by benchmarks (72%), followed by other plain
USD E UR GBP O th e r
vanilla issuance (22%) and structured issuance (6%).
S o u rc e : R B S , E IB
o YTD, EIB has already issued €50 bn including 3 USD global
deals versus 8 USD last year as seen in the second graph
below.
o EIB projects 2009 debt issuance of €70 bn.
9
The Royal Bank of Scotland
EUR bn
50 42.1
40
30
20
10
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Est
E IB U S D G lo b a l B o n d s Is s u e d in 2 0 0 8 & 2 0 0 9
P ric in g S p rd v s . M id S w a p s
5 100
80
4 60
3 40
20
2
$ B illio n
0
1 -2 0
-4 0
0 -6 0
3 yr 5 yr 5 yr 3 yr 3 yr 5 yr 3 yr 3 yr 3 yr 5 yr 5 yr
J a n - F e b - M a r- A p r- M a y- J u n - S e p - O c t- J a n - J a n - A p r-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09
S o u rc e : R B S , E IB
10
The Royal Bank of Scotland
KfW
K fW C a p ita l M a rk e t F u n d in g 2 0 0 8
Debt Issuance & Outstanding: Benchmark bonds accounted for about
half of KfW’s funding in 2008, followed by publicly placed bonds
7% outside the benchmark programs (37%) and private placements (10%).
2%
12% Euro-based funding dominated (45%) followed by USD (34%) as seen
to the right.
45% o In 2008, KfW’s outstanding debt totaled €271.6 bn and KfW
raised €75.3 bn in the capital markets versus €64.6 bn in 2007.
o KfW expects to issue about €75 bn in 2009.
34%
E UR USD G BP JP Y O th e rs
S o u rc e : R B S , K fW
11
The Royal Bank of Scotland
K fW G ro s s Is s u a n c e b y C u rre n c y
90
7 5 .3
E U R bn
50
40
30
20
10
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 E st
E UR USD GBP JP Y O th e rs
S o u rc e : R B S , K fW
The following graph displays KfW USD global bond issuance for 2008
($28 bn) and YTD 2009 ($14 bn) including new issue spreads versus
swaps.
K fW U S D G lo b a l B o n d s Is s u e d in 2 0 0 8 & 2 0 0 9
P ric in g S p re a d v s . S w a p s
6 120
5 100
80
4 60
$ B illio n
3 40
2 20
0
1 -2 0
0 -4 0
3 yr 5 yr 1 0 yr 5 yr 1 0 yr 3 yr 5 yr 3 yr 3 yr 5 yr 3 yr 2 yr
J a n - F e b - F e b - A p r- J u n - J u n - J u l- S e p - J a n - M a r- A p r- F e b -
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09
S o u rc e : R B S , K fW
K F W $ D e a ls : D is trib u tio n b y In v e s to r T yp e
100%
10%
W e ig h te d A v g % o f D e a l
80% 14%
8% 23%
60% 16% 24%
40%
64%
54% 50%
20%
0%
2006 2007 2008
C e n tra l B a n k s F unds B a nks
S o u rc e : R B S , K fW
12
The Royal Bank of Scotland
13
Supranational Comparison
$/€ bn Rating Owners Structure 2008 2008 Issuance Outstanding Assets Outstanding Capital Equity Assets Loans (BIS)* W ebsite
W ashington, DC Based Issuers
None, but strong
185 member implicit support
countries. US is from its owners
Aaa/AAA/ largest at (multilateral
IBRD AAA 16.4%. development bank). $19.0 $6.2 $30-$35 $87.7 $233.6 $99.1 $189.8 $41.5 17.8% 41.9% 0% www.worldbank.org
47 Member None, but strong
countries. US implicit support
is the largest, from its owners
Aaa/AAA/ holding 30% of (multilateral
IADB AAA capital. development bank). $11.1 $7.4 $15-$20 $49.4 $72.5 $51.2 $100.9 $19.4 26.8% 38.0% 0% www.iadb.org
179 Member None, but strong
countries. US is implicit support
largest, holding from its owners
Aaa/AAA/ 24.1% of the (multilateral
IFC NR capital development bank). $6.3 $2.0 $8.0 $21.3 $47.4 $21.1 $2.4 $15.8 33.3% 74.9% 0% www.ifc.org
European Based Issuers
None, but strong
implicit support
from its owners
Aaa/AAA/ 27 EU Member (multilateral
EIB AAA States development bank). € 59.5 $35.5 € 70.0 € 254.2 € 301.9 € 266.4 € 232.0 € 34.5 11.4% 12.9% 0% www.eib.org
80% German
Federal Gov't,
Aaa/AAA/ 20% German Guarantee from
KfW AAA States German Gov't € 75.3 $35.6 € 75.0 € 347.5 € 394.8 € 313.7 € 3.3 € 11.8 3.0% 3.8% 0% www.kfw.com
Source: IBRD, IADB, IFC, EIB, KfW , RBS, Note: KfW and IFC as of 12/31/08, IBRD and IADB as of 6/30/08, EIB as of 12/31/07, Bank for International Settlement assigns a 0% risk weight to claims
on multilateral developments banks under Basel II Framework. Please contact your appropriate regulator for further guidance.
14
The Royal Bank of Scotland
Copyright ©2009 RBS Securities Inc. All rights reserved RBS Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, is
a subsidiary of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. RBS is the marketing name for the securities
business of RBS Securities Inc.
The author of this material is a desk strategist, salesperson or trader and will be compensated based
15