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Insights into the future of soil erosion
View ORCID ProfileTimothy A. Quine and Kristof Van Oost
PNAS September 22, 2020 117 (38) 23205-23207; first published September 16, 2020
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017314117
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Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070) -
Aug 24, 2020
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Research, dating back as far as the 1930s and the stimulus of the Dust Bowl, has
provided valuable insights into the causes and consequences of soil erosion.
However, global synthesis of erosion rates measured using a wide range of
methodologies, has proven to be extremely challenging (8). By applying an empirical
soil erosion model employing consistent and high spatial resolution global
datasets, Borrelli et al. (1) address this challenge and offer simulations that can
be coupled in a consistent manner to land use, soil conservation, and climate
change scenarios. Comparing modeled soil erosion for 2015 and 2070, Borrelli et al.
(1) identify potential for ∼10% reduction in global rates under a sustainability-
focused scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6), ∼10% increase in global rates for a fossil-fuel
intensive scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), and relatively little change (+2%) for an
intermediate scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). These results suggest cobenefits for erosion
reduction in attempts to pursue a path …
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