Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
www.epilogue.in CONTENTS
Editor Prologue 3
Zafar Iqbal Choudhary Who Said What 4
Others
Consulting Editor Peace Process
D. Suba Chandran Concern 7
US Elections 9
Associate Editor
Irm Amin Baig HUNG Report
Trading Via Email
Designs & Layout
Keshav Sharma
HOUSE? Haste Makes Waste
A Historic Initiative 37
Mailing Address
PO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar, Volume 2, Issue 11, December 2008
Columns
Jammu
IN FOCUS
Vision From Valley 41
Prof Noor Ahmed Baba
Phones & email Assembly Election 2008
Office : +91 191 2493136
Days Gone By 43
11 Surprise For Many, Shocks For Others Prof. Jigar Mohammad
Editorial: +91 94191 80762
Administration: +91 94190 00123 12 Vote against Azadi ? Not Really Srinagar Sentiments 55
Syeda Afshana
editor@epilogue.in 15 Story behind those long queques
editor.epilogue@gmail.com Ladakh
subscription@epilogue.in
19 Kashmiri Pandits return to politics
Monarchs Still Exists... 46
20 Atal In Kashmir
Skarma Sonam Gya
Edited, Printed, Published and 22 What is on agenda ?
Owned by Zafar Iqbal Choudhary. Reviews
23 Peoples Democratic Party
Published from : Ibadat House, Self Rule for lasting Kashmir Solution Books 48
Madrasa Lane, Near Graveyard,
Bathindi Top, Jammu, J&K - 25 National Conference
180012 and Printed at : DEE Ready To Look Beyond Autonomy
DEE Reprographix, 3 Aikta 26 Congress : To Rewrite Constitution For
Ashram, New Rehari Jammu Empowering Regions
(J&K)
27 BJP : Making Jammu Epicentre of Power
www.epilogue.in
Time To Consolidate
Zafar Choudhary
A Epilogue
ny election is essentially a game those who did not want people to vote
of surprise and shocks. It can't be have been left shocked. But there is a
an election if the element of word of caution for both sides.
surprise is missing. Till last month Tremendous participation of people in
because there is more to know
everyone appeared in a tizzy on holding electoral process should not be seen as a
elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Two verdict on resolution of Kashmir issue.
strong reasons made the Election Government of India has often erred in EPILOGUE aims at providing a
Commission, the Government and the the past by construing successful
platform where a meaningful
parties wary –violence and the voter elections as signs of complete normality
exchange of ideas, opinion and
thoughts can take place among the
turnout. Two phases are over. More than in the Valley. Look at the uprising of
people and about the people of
60 per cent of total electorate in 16 summer this year and then see
Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to
constituencies has cast their votes. participation of people in elections. The
research, investigate, communicate
Overwhelming! Well, this percentage is message from the Valley is very clear.
and disseminate information, ideas
far above the national average of 55 to People have conveyed that Kashmir
and alternatives for the resolution of
58 per cent. Look at the constituencies issue and elections are two separate
common problems facing the state
like Gurez and Lolab in north Kashmir subjects which they would like deal with
and society of Jammu & Kashmir and
where turnout is going beyond 70 per separately. Once these elections are in the context of their significance to
cent. Agreed, that government put over, the Government of India must South Asia as a whole.
strong restrictions against anti-poll make efforts to resume the sagging
campaigners and locked almost all dialogue respecting sentiments of the We welcome contributions from
senior separatist leaders up but still if majority which has vouched for Indian academics, journalists, researchers,
people brave the falling temperatures democratic system. Denial will again be economists and strategic thinkers.
and cut their ways to polling stations delusion. People are now keenly waiting We would also like to encourage
through thick carpets of snow, what for outcome of the elections. Trends first-time writers with the only
these elections should be called. don't suggest any single party coming to requirements being a concern for and
Certainly not sham. Democracy has its power at its own. As it did in 2002, the the desire to understand the
roots in J&K, strong and deep. Violence, New Delhi should keep away from fixing prevailing issues and themes of life in
the major fear about elections, too a government in J&K. Epilogue recently Jammu & Kashmir
makes an interesting story. There have received few complaints from people in
been some incidents of violence in poll Jammu region that why state politics is Contributions may be investigative,
bound areas. But put together all always seen in perspective of Kashmir. descriptive, analytical or theoretical.
incidents will not cross two percent of We would like to clarify this. There can't They may be in the form of original
what happens in Bihar or even the be any stability in Jammu and Ladakh till articles or in the form of a comment on
sensible states like the neighbouring completely restored in Kashmir. As long current events. All contributions have
Himachal Pradesh on poll eve. This is as this objective is pending we have to to be neatly typed in double space and
how the two phases of polling have keep on talking about Kashmir issue. may be sent to the address given
passed off and the exercise, spanning This is how we can contribute our bit. alongside or e-mailed to the editor.
over seven phases, is likely to conclude There is a time to consolidate gains of
like this. The trend has been set with overwhelming public faith in While the editor accepts
surprises for many and shocks for others. democracy. responsibility for the selection of the
All those who were wary of violence and material published, individual
poor turnout have been surprised by Feedback : authors are responsible for the facts,
overwhelming response of people and zafarchoudhary@epilogue.in figures and views in their articles.
Epilogue Ø
2×
December 2008
H E A R A N D H E A R
WHO SAID WHAT
In Verbatim
‘Kashmir belongs to Kashmiris',
Epilogue Ø
3×
December 2008
Now
Epilogue
because there is more to know
Telling
The J&K Stories
Epilogue
because there is more to know
Name : .............................................................................................................................. .
Age : .................................. Education :.............................................................................
Profession :........................................................................................................................
Phone : ............................................... Email :....................................................................
Mailing Address :...............................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................................
F
I have enclosed a payment of Rs. 180/- in the name of ‘Epilogue Magazine’ towards annual subscription
Signature
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CMRD Publications and Communications
‘Ibadat’ Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu (J&K)
Phone : (O) 0191 2493136, (M) 94191 80762 (C) 94198 91777, 99067 11747
Email : editor.epilogue.in, editor.epilogue@gmail.com, epilogue2008@gmail.com
P E A C E P R O C E S S
CONCERN
Epilogue Report
T
he blame game after National Conference and former chief from Jammu and Kashmir was
Mumbai terror storm has minister, also condemned the Mumbai scheduled to visit Muzaffarabad to take
once again brought India attack in strong words. forward talks on trade across the Line
and Pakistan eye to eye but Of Control that divides Kashmir
people of Jammu and 'I feel this was planned and executed by between India and Pakistan.
Kashmir do not want this to happen. As those groups that do not want India and
the terror trail at India's financial Pakistan to come closer. I think a 'We are worried about its future now
capital assumes larger proportions Security Council meeting be called on after these attacks in Mumbai. But we
than any incident of terrorism in post- this where both India and Pakistan, all want this visit to go on as planned,'
independence history of country, the besides other major countries, should said Ram Sahai, president of the
intellegentia, political and business talk it out,' says Abdullah. He said Chamber of Commerce and Industries in
class are getting wary of its though there would be some short term Jammu. ‘The continued involvement of
repercussions. There is a strong urge effect on the peace process, 'it will be both sides in such times of crisis is a
from all that the Mumbai attack should able to sustain in the long term'. must to fight terrorism together. I am
not be allowed to derail the peace sure my friends across the LoC in
process between India and Pakistan Pakistan will not be happy over such
and both the countries have to fight Perhaps their words come none to soon.
Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab terrorist attacks.'
the scourge of terrorism together.
Mukherjee has already said the
terrorists had links with Pakistan but Rekha Choudhary, a political expert
'The Mumbai attack in which innocent said he could not give any details from Jammu University, said: 'We must
lives have been lost is most because investigations were still on. keep in mind that Pakistan itself is now a
condemnable. These are reprehensible victim of terrorism. Both India and
acts of terror against humanity,' said Pakistan have to cooperate with each
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, patron of the The militants attacked prominent
landmarks in Mumbai on the night of other and devise strategies to fight
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and terrorism jointly.'
former chief minister. December 26 and
continued their assault
for next 60 hours.
On whether it would have an impact on Apprehensions about the
the India-Pakistan peace process, he future of the peace
said: 'It might have a temporary effect process have been raised
but I do not see any long term impact. as ties between the two
We must understand that India and countries were snapped
Pakistan have to live together and fight after the December 2001
terrorism together. Even Pakistan is attack on the Indian
facing the same kind of terrorism.' parliament, which India
blamed on Pakistan-
He felt that India and Pakistan would based terrorists. Ties
stand to benefit if they fought terrorism between the two
jointly. countries have improved
greatly since then.
Farooq Abdullah, the patron of the A business delegation
Epilogue Ø
7×
December 2008
P E A C E P R O C E S S
CONCERN
T
he multiple terror attacks on the Middle East who has been appointed logical that he would have to pay
Mumbai could push the by the new president as his Pakistan particular attention to Kashmir.
incoming Barack Obama adviser.
administration to sharpen its While the chatter over Obama
focus on the Kashmir issue. In an interview with the influential proposing to appoint a special envoy on
The attacks are being viewed by some in think tank Council on Foreign Relations Kashmir has died down in recent weeks,
the transition team here as President- Reidel was quoted as saying as recently it is clear that the Mumbai attacks
elect Obama's first major national as September: "There's another place would bring back a whole lot of options
security challenge that could draw him where I feel creative American on the table. At the very least they
into the Kashmir dispute sooner than he diplomacy could be helpful. We ought to would force Obama and his South Asia
might like. Although there is no direct try to encourage a long-term advisers to reassess the situation on the
link established between the terrorists settlement between India and Pakistan ground. Those who know the issue of
operating in Kashmir with those who of the Kashmir dispute, based again on terror in India understand that the
carried out the Mumbai attacks, a case the principle that the existing Line of mushrooming jehadi outfits use the
may be made that eventually all jehadi Control ought to become an justification of the community having
groups are bound by a common Islamist international border with some special been wronged in India as much as it
philosophy. status reserved for Kashmiris." having been wronged globally.
To that extent the Deccan Mujahedeen,
a likely offshoot of the more organized "We can't expect Pakistan to behave like Such outfits no longer make any
Indian Mujahedeen, may well share the a normal state, unless it has normal distinction between what they consider
broader vision of those operating in borders. And we can't expect Pakistan to wrongs being done to Indian Muslims
Kashmir. behave the way we would like it to while and those being done to Muslims
it's obsessed and fixated on its neighbor worldwide. This fusion of global and
Part of the reason why the Mumbai and the problem in Kashmir. The domestic grievance among the jehadi
attacks could more sharply define the problem in Kashmir has been in the groups, perceived or real, could make it
new Kashmir approach is because in the doldrums for the past several years. It is hard for the Obama administration to
final analysis Kashmir (including the now starting to boil really quickly, and tailor their Kashmir policy.
part under Pakistani control) is seen as a when Kashmir boils, the result is Indian-
fount of the rising Islamist terror in Pakistani tensions that can produce war. Nobody knows who Deccan Mujahedeen
India. Of course, factors such as the We've seen that over and over again," he are or what their objectives are or
2002 mass killings of Muslims in Gujarat said. whether they feel any affinity towards
do fuel some of the sense of extreme the Kashmiri separatists. But it may be
disenchantment within the Muslim With Prime Minister Manmohan Singh safe to assume that all these groups
community. However, the larger pointing at external links of the Mumbai morph into each other when it comes to
connection between the disparate attackers, it is not lost on experts in the what they have framed in their minds as
groups will always remain a feeling of US that he could be talking of groups Islam versus the world conflict. It is in
pan-Islamism. based in Pakistan. If that is indeed the this nebulousness that the Obama
case the brazen Mumbai attacks could administration will have to pitch its
Perhaps the clearest indication of a yet work up new tensions with Pakistan. Kashmir approach in the framework of
more pro-active Kashmir approach Since Obama is committed to making its national security policy on South
under Obama has come from Bruce A f g h a n i s t a n a n d Pa k i s t a n h i s Asia, in the light of threat perceptions
Reidel, a former CIA officer and adviser administration's foreign policy as well emanating from Afghanistan and
to three US presidents on South Asia and national security priority, it is only Pakistan. (Courtesy IANS)
Epilogue Ø
8×
December 2008
P E A C E P R O C E S S
US ELECTIONS
Is Kashmir Key To
Afghanistan Peace ?
A
s part of his push to find new
solutions to the war in It is a strategy that
Afghanistan, US President- worries Indians, who
elect Barack Obama is
considering a new diplomatic
suggest the Pakistani
push on Kashmir, reversing eight years of Army is blackmailing
American silence on the issue.
Obama to support its
Mr. Obama has argued that Pakistan will claims. Yet security
not fully commit to fighting the analysts say the Afghan
insurgency it shares with Afghanistan
until it sheds historic insecurities toward
insurgency has roots in the
India. Talks about Kashmir, the central power struggle between
point of contention between the two
nuclear rivals, are among the "critical
India and Pakistan and
tasks for the next administration," cannot be solved without
Obama said in an interview last month
a regional approach.
with Time magazine.
It is a strategy that worries Indians, who entire region, which includes not on India, but on the situation with
suggest the Pakistani Army is Afghanistan. those militants," he told MSNBC on Oct.
blackmailing Obama to support its 31.
claims. Yet security analysts say the General Petraeus has been an open
Afghan insurgency has roots in the power advocate of regional diplomacy as a key Obama went further in the Time
struggle between India and Pakistan and counterinsurgency tactic. On Oct. 15, he interview, mentioning he has spoken with
cannot be solved without a regional told a round table of Washington Post former President Bill Clinton about
approach. reporters that in seeking solutions to becoming a special envoy to the region – a
Afghanistan, "there may be opportunities comment that has been front-page news
"It will be very hard to put Afghanistan on with respect to India." in India and Pakistan.
a long-term positive path without
alleviating some of the Indo-Pakistan The goal would be to build a level of trust Nothing could be more damaging to
tensions," says Xenia Dormandy of the between India and Pakistan, freeing American interests in the region, says
Belfer Center for Science and Pakistan from its historic fear of India, Raja Mohan, a member of India's National
International Affairs at Harvard with which it has fought three wars. The Security Advisory Board. He claims Indo-
University in Cambridge, Mass. surest way to do this, Obama has said, is Pakistan relations are better than they
to find a solution to Kashmir – the state have ever been, citing the recent opening
Such ideas would appear to fit well with split between each but claimed in full by of trade between Pakistan - and-Indian-
the doctrines of Gen. David Petraeus, both. controlled Kashmir as something that
who oversaw a significant improvement would have been unthinkable in the past.
in law and order in Iraq. He is now the "We should try to resolve the Kashmir
commander of American forces in the crisis so that [Pakistan] can stay focused – Moreover, he suggests India and Pakistan
Epilogue Ø
9×
December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
have behind the scenes made significant yielded to Indian influence. Fears are Malik, a Pakistani government security
progress on the issue of Kashmir, to the stoked by the memories of 1971, when adviser during a trip to Washington.
point that the two nations have a the Indian Army helped Bengalis secede
tentative road map for how to resolve the from Pakistan to form Bangladesh. With Analysts say this might be true, but only
crisis. It was scuppered only by the Afghanistan historically claiming a to a small degree. Militants "might be
collapse of former Pakistani President significant chunk of Pakistan as its own, getting some support from India, but it's
Pervez Musharraf's regime in August. Pakistanis worry that an Indian-backed not anywhere near what the Pakistanis
Afghanistan could dismember Pakistan like to suggest," says Marvin Weinbaum,
Bush steered clear of Kashmir further. an analyst at the Middle East Institute in
The progress was partly the result of the Washington.
Bush administration's decision to steer "Pakistan is the only country in South Asia
clear of Kashmir, says Mr. Mohan. Entering that stands between India's complete Privately, a Pakistani diplomat who spoke
the fray now would only disrupt the hegemony in this region," says Fahmida on condition of anonymity agrees. India's
delicate balance, making it appear as if Ashraf, an analyst at the Institute for involvement in the unrest along
the US was merely trying to placate Strategic Studies in Islamabad, a Pakistan's western front "might be no
Pakistan in return for its support in the thinktank funded by the Pakistan more than 5 percent of all the trouble out
war against terror. government. there." But publicly, Pakistan "is basing
its Afghan and Indian policy on its
In such a case, Mohan says, India might Repeatedly, Pakistan's Army has acted to perception," says Mr. Weinbaum.
have a hard time winning concessions for prevent this from happening. It has done
a fair deal: "So long as the Pakistani Army this by cultivating networks of militants In July, militants struck the Indian
thinks that the Americans are on their as a proxy army. In Afghanistan, the Embassy in Kabul with a bomb blast that
side, they're not going to deal with India." Pakistan-backed mujahideen chased out killed 41 people. American intelligence
the Soviet Union, India's ally. Then the agencies have said they have evidence
Both Obama and his top South Asia Pakistan-backed Taliban took control of that Pakistan's intelligence agency, the
adviser, Bruce Riedel, have spoken of the the country, preventing it from falling
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
need to be discreet. In a 2007 into the hands of pro-India Northern
directorate, was involved. "Even today,
teleconference for the journal Foreign Alliance warlords.
the Pakistani military sees India as the
Affairs, Mr. Riedel said: "I would urge the threat," says Ms. Dormandy, of Harvard.
administration to seize the opportunity This proxy war continues. India has "Until that attitude changes, you're not
to quietly, but forcefully, push for a invested $750 million and pledged $450 going to see Pakistan step back from its
resolution there." million more to the government of historically strong use of militant assets
President Hamid Karzai, who is strongly to affect foreign policy."
In the interview he called Kashmir "the pro-India. India is Afghanistan's largest
itch that has driven Pakistan towards trade partner. And it has taken the
There are signs that this attitude is
supporting terrorism for the last 20 provocative step of opening consulates in
beginning to change. Pakistan is now
years." Indeed, many experts say the two cities sitting on the border with
fighting many of the militants it once
enmity – for which Kashmir is the most Pakistan – Jalalabad and Kandahar.
sheltered in Bajaur and Swat in northern
potent symbol – has shaped security in Pakistan. Obama's intent would be to
the region, including Afghanistan. Pakistan claims Indian intelligence accelerate this process and send a clear
agencies are using these consulates as message to Pakistan. "Why do you want
Rivalry plays out in Afghanistan bases, though it has never made this to keep on being bogged down with [India
evidence public. Generally speaking, the and Kashmir], particularly at a time
For years, the mutual mistrust has led
allegations are that India is funding where the biggest threat now is coming
India and Pakistan to play their own
separatist militants in the Pakistani from the Afghan border?" he told Time. "I
version of the Great Game in Afghanistan.
province of Balochistan. think there is a moment where
India has consistently been Afghanistan's
main ally in the region. But Pakistan sees potentially we could get their attention.”
Afghanistan as its strategic backyard, "India wants to destabilize [Pakistan's tribal
which under no circumstances can be areas] and Balochistan," said Rahman (By arrangement : Christian Science Monitor)
Epilogue Ø
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
I
n Jammu and Kashmir –Jammu,
Kashmir and Ladakh –the regions
have always responded differently
to the electoral process. For Jammu
and Ladakh elections are a
democratic competitive exercise the way
they are in any part of India involving all
ingredients of emerging electoral trends,
good and bad. In Kashmir Valley it is a
different scenario, always. Once the
Government of India would get elections
rigged to see formation of a government
of its choice. Now it is about good voter
Epilogue Ø
11 ×
December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
S
over Kashmir and a poor percentage ince 1989 the major challenge
proves point of separatists and gives about holding any election in Langate 10 15
Pakistan a much required leverage for Jammu and Kashmir has always Uri 03 13
drumbeating about the 'disputed' nature been security. Militant threat, an Rafiabad 07 09
of territory. Therefore, any election, increased pitch of violence and hostile Sopore 06 24
particularly post-1987, has never been circumstances drove the participants, Sangrama 07 19
less than a referendum. The way aspirants and electors alike, away from Baramulla 13 12
elections are officially projected here, the electoral process. This time there
Gulmarg 02 15
the competition between parties for was no such threat even as caution
Pattan 03 13
forming government appears as a always remains. Still the Election
ancillary product of exercise and not the Gurez 05 06
Commission and Government of India
main exercise, per se. Going by the appeared in a double mind on holding Bandipora 06 19
voter enthusiasm, the elections of 2008 elections in the state at this stage. Sonawari 06 22
are well geared to declare India winner Worries were quite genuine. If people Kangan 07 10
Ganderbal 06 11
Chadoora 08 18
Epilogue Ø
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
Geelani's appeal and turned up in still forced to stay away from the polling
more numbers to cast their votes. The booths…now they come to polling
overall poll percentage in Ganderbal booths or not, it for them to see”, says
district has been recorded at 52.5% J&K's Chief Election Officer BR Sharma.
against 43% of 2002. In Bandipore Separatists say that the high polling 16
district which went to polls in first phase percentage has been possible only due
on November 17, the overall poll the strict restrictions and strong arm 17
percentage was around 63% against 54% tactics against the anti-election
of 2002. In 2002 the elections were held campaign. These arguments can not be
in a pleasant weather and absence of brushed aside easily in view of situation
any major boycott call from separatists. explained above. But why the anti-
This time, most of the areas of election campaign when people are
Bandipore district were under a snow clear about what they have in mind.
DISTRICT GANDERBAL
cover of upto three feet and sub-zero Interestingly, the trend in present 2 Constituencies
degree temperature prevailed all elections have boldly underlined one Total Vote Count :
around. important fact that a common man in Kangan, 59,879 (31,354M, 28,525F);
Kashmir is more clear about his ideas as Ganderbal, 77,616 (39,982M,
well as ideologies than the separatist or 37,634F)
The elections are still being described as
sham by separatists but not even a single
allegation has come, even from There is clearly a strong use of
separatist camp, to suggest any
coercion on part of government in
force to prevent the separatists
from taking out rallies and
I n 2002, Ganderbal emerged as
symbol of change in Kashmir
politics when third generation
pulling crowds to the polling stations. It
is true that the top separatist leaders processions against elections. heir of Abdullah dynasty and
have either been jailed or put under
NC's Chief Ministerial candidate
However, what earns credibility Omar Abdullah lost to a hitherto
house arrest and strict restrictions have
been imposed on taking out any boycott
to the election exercise is that unknown Qazi Mohammad Afzal
campaigns. Urban areas of Valley, there is absolutely no use of force of PDP. Nothing worst could have
particularly in central and north to make people to vote. happened to Abdullahs. Omar is
Kashmir, have been intermittently again face to face with Qazi.
coming under an undeclared curfew like Curfew like situation prevailed
situations to thwart the boycott mainstream political elites. The at headquarters of this new
campaigns. Top separatist leaders political elites of all hues, whether in district when PDP workers
Mohammad Yaseen Malik and Shabir Srinagar, New Delhi or Islamabad, link brought down NC banners the
Ahmed Shah have been booked under elections with the basic Kashmir issue day Omar filed nomination
Public Safety Act for their anti-election and try to score a point over each other papers. On his second visit to
activities. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq is under according to convenience of prevailing constituency, Police had a tough
house arrest and so is the case with Syed situation. “Elections are not any
time when Congress workers
Ali Shah Geelani who returned to solution to Kashmir issue”, argues
pelted stoned at his cavalcade.
Kashmir only in last week of November Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.
Noor Mohammad Kalwal, an 80 year old
He is tendering public apologies
after his treatment in New Delhi and
resident of a Bandipore village who
for past mistakes as contest is not
Mumbai. There is clearly a strong use of
walked more than two kilometers over
quite smooth. In Kangan, Mian
force to prevent the separatists from
snow to cast his vote, does not differ Altaf Ahmed appears well
taking out rallies and processions
against elections. However, what earns much from Mirwaiz. “Elections are placed to win seat fourth time in
credibility to the election exercise is certainly no solution to Kashmir issue row.
that there is absolutely no use of force but there are a host of other issues
to make people to vote. “This is our which can be resolved through elections
responsibility to facilitate a smooth and alone”, says Kalwal. He has a long list of
fearless electioneering and polling. Our complaints against the local MLA but the
effort is to ensure that people are not point of relevance he makes here is:
Epilogue Ø
14 ×
December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
“don't mix up elections with Kashmir the mass uprising of this year, following
issue”. Amarnath land dispute.
I
Our team traveled across several areas ndia has an average polling
of Bandipore and Ganderbal districts percentage of 58%. Past trends
and shared with many people Syed Ali suggest that more people from rural
10 Shah Geelani's argument of sacrificing areas turn for exercising their voting
11
9 the right to vote for resolution of rights than their urban counterparts. It
Kashmir issue. The dominant opinion has been very recently that urban poll
from a cross section of respondents percentage has started picking up but
says: “Kashmir issue has its own still it is far less than the rural trends.
importance and we will keep fighting for Boycotting the boycott call of
that; election is about addressing the separatists and braving the chill, if
DISTRICT BANDIPORA local issues and we don't want to waste around 55% are turning up to vote in
3 Constituencies this opportunity”. Bandipore and Kashmir Valley and the overall
Total Vote Count : Ganderbal districts were the hot spot of percentage is going much higher
Gurez, 15,330 (8,006M, 7,324F); violent protests and demonstrations in (including districts of Jammu and
Bandipora, 86,013 (45,120M,
40,893F); Sonawari, 84,726
(43,722M, 41,004F) Story behind those long queues
Ladakh regions) it can be seen as victory comprehend or explain the reasons of
B
andipore district was of democracy. But democracy overnight this blatant defiance of their boycott
carved out of Barmulla turning highly competitive in Kashmir calls. The only reason they have been
last year. Except Gurez have left many wanting for reasons. able to offer is that the government
constituency which is both Bandipore constituency polled 31% in bundled them all in to ensure that anti-
2002 and this time it was 57%. Ganderbal election campaign is not taken out. Not
geographically and has polled 51% against 35% of last time. a cogent reason. There are no reports or
ideologically usually cut off from There is hostile weather and strong anti- allegations (even from separatists) of
rest of Kashmir Valley, election movement but still people are government forcing people to vote.
Bandipore has a contest between coming out in large numbers. Then who is pulling crowds to the polling
separatists with mainstream Separatists are not able to either booths. The answer perhaps rests with
leanings and the mainstreamers.
Kukka Parray, the militant
commander turned politician
won Sonawari in 1996 and lost to
NC after a significant contest in
2002. His Deputy in Awami
League Usman Majid, however,
won neighbouring Bandipore
with a thin margin. While no
major party is out of contest here
but none of them can be seen
much ahead of others.
Independents are still better
placed.
Epilogue Ø
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
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16 ×
December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
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17 ×
December 2008
I N F O C U S
COVER STORY
T
151 candidates in fray in 2002 he self proclaimed election been winning this seat since
elections, a whopping 334 candidates boycott of an important 1977. Lone had lost by 3700
are contesting elections this time in 26 ingredient of the Kashmiri votes in 2002 and since then his
Assembly constituencies in the first society is over. One most interesting party has pumped in huge
four phases. There were 114 feature of the present assembly
energy and resources in
contestants in the ring for 1983 elections is overwhelming participation
of Kashmiri Pandits. This long delayed
constituency. PDF emerged
elections, 122 in 1987 and 128 in 1996.
The average number of candidates in aspect of elections was perhaps much after 2002 elections; its leader
the Kashmir province has also steadily required to make elections really Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen
increased from 4.38 in 1983, 4.69 in c o m p e t i t i v e a n d p a r t i c i p a t o r y. eyes one seat in district besides
1987, 4.92 in 1996, 5.81 in 2002 to Kashmiri Pandits have decided to take his own of Khan Sahib. His
12.85 in the present elections. the election road back home after years contest from two seats
of unfulfilled promises.
underlines the quantum of
Never before have the Valley's
In Chadoora constituency of district confidence.
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
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O
severe internal rebellion in this ne stalwart of Bhartiya Janta
Muju's father, Pandit Dina Nath, had Party who is missing from the
district. In Tral constituency been killed by militants in June 1990. “I political scene even the party's
Congress can expect a surprise as had already migrated in March that year New Delhi headquarters is setting the
its 2002 nominee who has lost after I received threats from some campaign theme in Kashmir Valley. The
with a margin of 309 votes is people but my parents had stayed back. era of Atal Behari Vajpayee as Prime
again in the fray after having When my father was killed, I could not Minister is being reminded to the people
spent years among people. In come down for his cremation in Srinagar. in Valley, particularly in North Kashmir.
My mother came to live with us in Strange enough, the Valley's poll skyline
that case Surinder Singh may be
Jammu after my father's death.” also have some lotus flowers in the
a lone Sikh winner from Valley. saffron background.
Despite his personal tragedy, Muju
wants to bridge the gap between Hindus The BJP, which led the Amarnath
and Muslims in Kashmir. “The Muslims campaign pitting Hindus against Muslims
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ATAL IN KASHMIR
With 27 candidates in Valley, BJP is seeking votes 47
in name of Vajpayee
48
DISTRICT LEH
2 Constituencies
Total Vote Count :
Nobra, 11,863 (5,943M, 5,920F);
Leh, 62,533 (31,680M, 30,853F)
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What is on agenda?
Special status dominant buzzword, emphasis
on regional balance
Yes, it sounds ludicrous. Ideologically poles apart, three parties 53
–Peoples Democratic Party, National Conference and Bhartiya
Janta Party –are fighting Jammu and Kashmir elections on same
plank. True. These are the major parties which have drawn out a 54
common agenda. A look at the manifestos of almost all parties
shows an unusual stress on regional empowerment. The only
difference is that the parties like NC, PDP and others with their DISTRICT DODA
Kashmir origin, even Congress, call for more powers from New
2 Constituencies
Delhi and then equal devolution to the regions. The BJP and other
Total Vote Count :
parties of its hue have gone completely silent on so called 'special Doda, 72,847 (37,495M, 35,352F);
status' of Jammu and Kashmir but their emphasis matches that of Bhaderwah, 94,173 (47,970M
PDP and Congress on devolution of powers to regions and sub- 46,203F)
regions. Besides other local issues, regional imbalance is a strong
factor in the present elections and the parties have drafted their This hilly district has a nearly
manifestos accordingly. straight contest between
Congress and National
Election manifestos of parties in Jammu and Kashmir, except Conference. Bhaderwah is a
National Conference, have always been drab and devoid of any matter of prestige for Congress as
major policy indicators. Local issues like power, water and former Chief Minister Ghulam
employment etc are usually the agenda parties come up with Nabi Azad who seeking re-
during elections. It was in 1996 elections that the National election. He had won with by-
Conference came up with a proposal to settle the Kashmir issue election in 2006 with a record
through elections –Greater Autonomy. Separatists in Kashmir margin that too without
though outrighly rejected and 'ultranationalist' in Jammu went to campaigning even for a single
set copies of autonomy manifesto ablaze but still this proposal day. But that does not mean
works well with a large majority as people believe that between there was no campaign. Entire
Azadi and full integration Autonomy sounds a doable proposal. Congress structure was engaged
The Congress never uses the word 'Autonomy' but has never been in Bhaderwah to create 'history'.
opposed to this agenda. Therefore, it is a matter of political NC has Mohammad Aslam Goni
compulsion for the Peoples Democratic Party to come up with and the BJP has Daya Kishan
something –something little less than Azadi –which goes beyond Kotwal as strong contenders
Autonomy. While Self Rules is the election plank of the Peoples pitted against Azad. In Doda
Democratic Party and surprisingly BJP has gone silent on its constituency contest is between
trademark slogan of 'abrogation of Article 370'. The agenda are all Abdul Majid Wani of Congress
about appeasing majority votes and the common line in manifestos and Khalid Najib Suhrawardy of
of all parties is empowerment of regions through the terminology National Conference.
is different. Jammu based smaller regional parties like Panthers
Party and Jammu State Morcha have called for reorganization of
the state while Kashmir based parties have stressed autonomous
status of Jammu and Kashmir and underlines a need for all
inclusive dialogue to resolve Kashmir issue.
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NATIONAL CONFERENCE
Ready To Look Beyond Autonomy
60 the affairs of the State”
D
61
escribing its manifesto as 'Vision
62 Document', the National
Conference has reiterated its demand of
Autonomy “as only viable solution of
Kashmir issue” but has declared at the
DISTRICT UDHAMPUR same time that the party is ready to
accept any other proposal acceptable to
3 Constituencies the people. Interestingly, first time ever
Total Vote Count : the National Conference has laid a huge On sharing power with the peoples at
Udhampur, 1,02,921 (53,945M, emphasis on devolution of powers to the
48,976F); Chenani, 79,222 (41,917M, grassroots, the National Conference has
regions and strengthening of Panchayati said that if returned to power, the first
37,305F); Ram Nagar, 99,309
(52,214M, 47,095F) Raj. major task will holding elections to the
Panchayats. The Vision Document
Taking a cue from the PDP-Congress recalled with regrets, “the National
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
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encouraged to raise their own resources The document said if elected to power
and reduce their dependence on the in the state, the NC will try to convince
government. In respect of Jammu and those who have taken recourse to
Srinagar cities which have elected violence and intimidation as means to 63
Municipal Corporations the scope and achieve their goal, that the lessons of
jurisdiction of the existing District history are very clear that all social,
Development Boards shall be reviewed political discords are resolved 66
to eliminate the possibility of ultimately by discourse and dialogue.
64
overlapping of authority for plan 65
formulation and implementation. The vision document, which was 67
released by the NC patron Dr Farooq
NC also promised to attract private Abdullah, his son and party president
DISTRICT KATHUA
sector investment in every field, Omar Abdullah in the presence of senior
rehabilitation of militancy affected leaders, without naming separatists said 5 Constituencies
people, zero tolerance in Human Rights all parties in the state, must accept the Total Vote Count :
(HR) violations, war against corruption, reality that the solution to the Kashmir Bani, 37,197 (19,354M, 17,843F);
employment to unemployed youths in problem can be found only through sustained Basohli, 67,391 (35,234M, 32,157F);
Kathua, 1,10,542 (58,437M,
government jobs and private sectors, dialogue between all stake holders.
52,105F); Billawar, 88,148 (46,274M,
improvement in power sector and 4 1 , 8 7 4 F ) ; H i ra n a g a r, 9 9 , 4 6 9
industrial development. It said the NC will hold elections to all (51,002M, 48,467F)
panchayats and fully support them to
powers to Jammu and Kashmir is what block level councils to ensure effective
National Conference asks for in its participation of people in the
Autonomy manifesto. On making democratic system. This constitutional
borders soft, rather irrelevant, the mechanism will guarantee the unity and
68 Congress appears to have touched up integrity of regions and the state.
the PDP manifesto as it calls for blurring
of boundaries between two parts of
The party has expressed faith that all
Jammu and Kashmir, making trans-LoC
69 trade and travel completely hassle free
the issues and disputes could be
resolved through dialogue. The party
affairs and opening at least five more
has promised to “restructure the
LoC links for people-to-people contacts.
Constitution of the state into a federal
DISTRICT SAMBA set-up by setting up separate regional
On regional balance, which is the councils for Jammu and Kashmir.”
2 Constituencies dominant buzzword in present
Total Vote Count : elections, the Congress has promised
Samba, 74,863 (37,861M, 37,002F); This could be furthered by
going to the extent rewriting the state “decentralization and devolution of
Vijaypur, 98,066 (48,366M, 49,700F)
constitution for making constitution powers to district and block level councils
empowerment of each region in the to ensure effective participation of
Anyone who wins from either of state. Therefore, the manifesto says: people in the democratic system.”
two constituencies in Samba When elected to power, Congress will
district will be actually like restructure constitution of the State Besides, the party has laid emphasis on
into a federal setup by creating separate
winning a lottery ticket. The setting up a delimitation commission to
regional councils for Jammu and restructure the legislative assembly
reserved constituency of Samba
Kashmir and further decentralization constituencies. The manifesto also
(for Scheduled Castes) and and devolution of powers to district and speaks of consolidating the Panchayati
neighbouring Vijaypur make
Samba district epicenter of Dalit
politics. Major hopes of BSP and BJP
its breakaway National Bahujan
Party are here only. NC, Making Jammu Epicenter Of Power
Congress, BJP and Panthers Raj system. the hands of Jammu and Kashmir's
Party –none of them can be
A
n essentially drab document, the dominantly Muslim rulers.
undermined. PDP too has a strong BJP manifesto does not reflect
contest in Vijaypur segment intellectual prowess its 'thinking But it made no mention of article
where its Manjit Singh had won luminaries' like Arun Jaitly who is party's 370 that entitles Jammu and Kashmir
in 2002 on BJP ticket and later in-charge of Jammu and Kashmir affairs. to have its own citizenship laws,
joined PDP and remained a Otherwise, the party's trademark forbids non-permanent residents
penchant for abrogation of Article 370 from buying immovable assets,
Minister till fall of Azad
would not have been missing from the gaining jobs or admission in
government. manifesto which talks about professional institutions. The BJP
empowerment of regions with Jammu as has for decades campaigned against
epicenter of power. article 370, saying only its abolition
would firmly tie Jammu and Kashmir
The document makes no mention of to the rest of India.
Article 370 of the Indian constitution
that grants special status to the In the manifesto, the BJP promised to do
state. The 16-point manifesto focuses away with regional imbalances in the
mostly on the alleged discrimination state, appoint provincial councils and
of Hindu-majority Jammu region at grant citizenship rights to refugees from
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N
otwithstanding iconic Independent candidates. However,
presence of leaders like after 1972, it has been downhill for 79
Mehbooba Mufti and new women as their numbers only declined. 78 7
7
2
contested from Bandipora constituency. But it is not just Kashmir that is seeing
more women candidates than before.
Though each of them marches to a Jammu has several as well. Tabassum
different drummer, all these aspiring Bano is contesting from Poonch-Haveli
women politicians are united in their Assembly constituency as the J&K
87 85 freedom from fear of defeat. Lawyer National Panthers Party candidate; her
Shameema Firdaus is a case in point. She opponent is Sarita Sharma of the
lost the last time she contested from Bhartiya Chaitanya Party. But J&K is
86 Habba Kadal constituency but this time about as far as female participation in
she is confident "people will vote for me politics goes. There are no women
as the previous MLA deceived them" candidates in pristine Ladakh's four
Firdaus is a NC nominee. constituencies.
DISTRICT POONCH
3 Constituencies
Total Vote Count :
Surankote, 84,969 (43,442M,
41,527F); Mendhar, 77,853
(39,023M, 38,830F); Poonch-Haveli,
96,758 (49,642M, 47,116F)
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A
midst anti-poll campaign Not only Kupwara constituency, a
and call of social boycott of significantly major part of Kupwara
82
those contesting assembly district in North Kashmir draws an
83
elections, the separatist influence from ideology of slain Hurriyat 84
p ol i ti c a l s p e c tru m i n leader Abdullah Gani Lone. A moderate
Kashmir finally has a genuine contest face and ready with imaginative ideas 81
'within' which underlines that elections on Kashmir, Lone was shot dead by
for forming a government and the vexed unidentified militants in May 2002, the
'Kashmir issue' are two different day then Prime Minister Atal Behari
DISTRICT RAJOURI
processes altogether. Vajpayee reached J&K on a two-day
tour. As Vajpayee had come with his 4 Constituencies
Total Vote Count :
Separatist 'stalwart' Sajjad Lone and his proposal of resolving Kashmir issue
No wsh era, 8 4 , 6 5 7 ( 4 3 , 4 0 6 M,
brother Bilal Lone of the Peoples under the 'ambit of humanity' (breaking
41,251F); Darhal, 88,186 (45,488M,
Conference (founded by their father far from clichéd four wall of 42,698F); Rajouri, 105271 (54,323M,
Abdul Ghani Lone) are out on a well constitution), it was widely expected 50,948F); Kalakote, 75,343
drawn up anti-poll campaign in Kashmir. that Lone may meet the Prime Minister (39,312M, 36,031F)
They don't have the well explained and to give a new shape to the dialogue
cogent reasons for opposing polls but process but this initiative was cut short
their bottomline is that elections have
to be opposed because they don't lead
towards resolution of Kashmir. This may
by mysterious bullets that afternoon.
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the north Kashmir district of Kupwara. Elections in Kupwara district are up for
an interestingly battle as the 2002
According to official figures Kupwara element of proxy is missing. In 2002, the
Assembly segment leads the district Peoples Conference of Sajjad Lone had
35 with the largest electorate of 90,805 fielded and supported proxy candidates
36 which includes 47,131 male and 43,674 in Kupwara and Handwara
female voters. constituencies. Sofi Ghulam Mohiuddin,
a staunch follower of Lone, won from
"Shabnam has a chance to win in Handwara defeating NC stalwart
Kupwara constituency as her father has Chowdhary Mohammad Ramzan. This
done a lot for the area" said Advocate time the Lone brothers are leading an
DISTRICT SHOPIAN Bushan Lal Pandita, a Kashmiri Pandit, anti-election campaign. Not it has to be
2 Constituencies who originally belongs to the same seen as how democracy responds to call
Total Vote Count: 1,39,475 district and now resides in Jammu. of brothers and sister.
Wachi, 68,388 (35,262M, 33,126F);
Shopian, 71,087 (37,040M, 34,047F)
GANDERBAL
O
mar's chief polling agent has declared the results even
before votes are counted. He says 'Omar has won' and for 39
that he has extended thanks to the people of Ganderbal. A
lackluster performance of Omar rival Qazi Afzal of PDP who 41
38
remained embroiled in controversies during five years as Minister is
still not enough a ticket for Omar's entry to legislative assembly and 37
restoration of constituency to the family.
BHADARWAH
A
zad remained in national politics for over 30 years but never won DISTRICT KULGAM
any election from the home state till by-election to assembly in 4 Constituencies
2006 came his way. He wanted to create history. No campaigning; Total Vote Count: 2,83,733
not even a visit to constituency. Azad won by a huge margin. This time he Noorabad, 61, 136 (32,263M,
has a campaign schedule drawn out. NC has fielded former Advocate 28,873F); Kulgam, 80,793 (41,826M,
General Aslam Goni who is giving a tough contest. BJP's Daya Kishan 38,967F); Home Shalibug, 65,657
Kotwal too is strength to reckon with. No candidate in last 46 years has (33,668M, 31,989F); Devsar, 76,147
won twice from here. Azad will have to break this jinx. (39,692M, 36,455F)
HAZRATBAL
Except Kulgam proper seat, this
district has significant stronghold
A
fter he went nearly missing in action in 2002, Farooq
of the PDP. Mohammad Yusuf
Abdullah is this time contesting election for himself and
Tarigami of CPI(M) represented
has been declared as party's Chief Ministerial candidate.
Kulgam twice since 1996 and is
Hazratbal is an NC turf held by straight since 1952. PDP and ANC now seeking election for third
are giving sleepless nights to NC. time. Congress and NC have
gone soft against him but PDP is
posing a tough challenge. If
JAMMU WEST Abdul Aziz Zargar is able to
recapture Noorabad
A
hotbed of Amarnath land agitation, this constituency has
constituency, this will be a
BJP's Chaman Lal Gupta, a former Union Minister and
history of sorts. Zargar is one of
Congress' Mangat Ram Sharma, a former Deputy Chief
the only three living signatories
Minister of state locked in a tough contest. Mangat had won in 2002
of the J&K constituent assembly.
when BJP had no strong candidate. Jammu State Morcha is a
Two others –Comrade KD Sethi
potential entity to cut votes of BJP this time. and Ram Piara Saraf –are
leading a retired life while
ANANTNAG Zargar is still active in public life.
P
DP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is seeking election from
his home district constituency against Dr Mehboob Baig of
National Conference. Baig won here in 2002 and earlier in
1983 and it was his illustrious father Mirza Afzal Baig who had
wrested Anantnag in 1977. It is Mufti's overconfidence which brings
him to Anantnag.
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WACHI
T
his constituency in newly created Shopian district has been
46 held by National Conference from 1977 to 1996. Mohammad
Khalil Naik of CPI(M) won in 2002 by wafer thin margin of 40
45
44 votes and perhaps this what has attracted PDP president Mehbooba
40
Mufti to take on him this time.
43
42
SOPORE
T
DISTRICT ANANTNAG his is home constituency of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the pro-
Pakistan separatist hardliner. He won from here as Jamat-e-
6 Constituencies
Total Vote Count: 4,20,534 Islami candidates in 1972, 77 and 1987 before he launched he
launched a campaign for Azadi. NC stalwart Abdul Ahad Vakil won in
Anantnag, 75,000 (38,325M,
36,675F); Dooru, 61,824 (32,132M, 1996 and lost to Abdul Rashid of Congress in 2002. Geelani's influence
29,692F); Kokernag, 69,604 still reigns supreme and only 8.9 per cent votes were polled last time.
(36,619M, 32,985F); Shangus, 70,159 Former MP and former state Congress president Ghulam Rasool Kar has
(36,489M, 33,670F); Bijbehara, revolted against part and is an independent candidate among 23 others.
75,518 (38,384M, 37,134F);
Pa h a l g a m , 6 8 , 4 2 9 ( 3 5 , 3 0 0 M ,
33,129F)
KUPWARA
A
except two exceptions, Kupwara has been with National
Conference since 1957. Its candidate Mir Saifullah is seeking
PDP nearly wiped out NC in election for third time. Election in this segment is most
Anantnag in 2002. The only interesting scene anywhere in the Valley. Shabnam Lone, the daughter of
solace for NC was Anantnag Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone and sister of Sajjad and Bilal Lone of
proper seat which Dr Mehbooba Peoples Conference is seeking election. Sajjad and Bilal's anti-election
Beg won. But this time he has campaign failed to influence their sister and electorate of Kupwara.
been challenged by PDP patron
and former Chief Minister Mufti JAMMU EAST
Mohammad Sayeed. Contest is
B
tough. Kokernag was won by JP's state president Ashok Khajuria is contesting against a
Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed of Congress dummy Narinder Singh, former Mayor of City.
Congress who was earlier this Khajuria won here in 1996 and lost in 2002. This time he is in
year eased out of Ghulam Nabi strong position –courtesy Amarnath land row but still it is not an
Azad cabinet on corruption easy going for him. There are at least three other candidates
charges. This time he has been equally banking on vote bank which makes Khajuria confident.
challenged by a political novice
of PDP –Sehar Iqbal, a social
NAGROTA
worker and daughter of a top
S
J&K bureaucrat. This district has cion of Dogra dynasty and son of former Sadre-e-Reyasat, Ajat
a significant population of Shatru Singh is NC candidate from this constituency on
Gujjars –the community PDP outskirts of Jammu City. Congress has fielded a Gujjar
made all possible efforts to woo candidate in view of significant Muslim population here. Both have
since 2002. strong rebels from their own parties in the constituency which BJP
wrested from Ajat Shatru in 2002 by 67 votes. Nagrota is unique in
not repeating any candidate since creation of this constituency.
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4
4 is the magic number a multitude of factors specific to
required in the House of 87 to individual constituencies and individual
form government in Jammu districts. No party is seen having a
a n d K a s h m i r. A s t h e
electioneering heats up,
dominant wave even in any single region
despite the fact the regional divides in
56 55
parties open their cards and people Jammu and Kashmir too are deep. A
break silence on their day, it appears team of Epilogue comprising staffers
that no party is likely to reach anywhere and over two dozen volunteers traveled
closer to the magic number. At a closer across different parts of state between
look of public mood, the planks on which October 30 and November 27 to gauge DISTRICT RAMBAN
elections are being fought and a host of the public mood. At an average of 20 to
2 Constituencies
other reasons including insurmountable 25 respondents per constituency, a total Vote Count :
rebellion in almost all parties one can of 1914 people were spoken to in all 87 Ramban, 77,400 (40,287M, 37,113F);
cautiously conclude that highest tally of segments to elicit their views on winning Banihal, 70,483 (36,998M, 33,485F)
any party is likely to be around just a prospects of parties and candidates.
little halfway the magic number. An The verdict again appears to be divided.
essential ingredient of electioneering, It is not overwhelmingly in favour of any Ramban constituency is reserved
in their public meetings all parties, party or against the other as the mood for Scheduled Castes while the
including Panthers Party, BJP and BSP, varies from case to case and place to neighbouring Banihal always
are claiming that they are poised to place.
witnesses a unique contest
form the next government. However, if
reliable insiders are to be believed, in
–between urban and rural
In Kashmir Valley there are similarities
their private meetings no party is able to aspirants. Well, there are no
and dissimilarities in views as one
peg its tally above 30. This is what travels from South to North. Ever ready
urban areas in Banihal except a
Epilogue team also concludes from a to rend a slogan for Azadi, the men and small township on Jammu-
statewide survey. The one which gets women, the young and old all have an Srinagar National Highway but
something between 25 to 30 seats is appetite for mainstream politics. They people don't prefer candidates
likely to be the largest party on floor of don't find anything in manifestos of who permanently or temporarily
next legislative assembly but no political parties which can actually
guarantee of forming government.
reside in this township. It was this
change destiny of Kashmir. Still
Independents and smaller parties are reason which saw Maulvi Abdul
enthusiasm is high. It reflects upon the
likely to emerge as key players in local issues and local loyalties with Rashid winning as a NC rebel in
government formation. Indications are contesting candidates. A surprisingly 2002 against party's official
clear for a Hung House and Congress in high number of independent nominee. Maulvi later joined
any case is likely to be a part of the candidates, mushrooming small and Congress but has been denied
ruling formation after results are out. newer parties and landing of local ticket. Congress has fielded a
Peoples Democratic Party and National candidates of national political parties
Conference joining hands to form quite youngster who lives in the
have made the election in many
government in Jammu and Kashmir can constituencies of Kashmir Valley more or
township. PDP is also facing
be nothing less than BJP and Congress less like a lottery ticket. Who wins or rebellion. In Ramban it is a
striking an alliance at New Delhi or who is in a winning position is not known contest between BJP and NC
Osama bin Laden and George Bush to even the one who may actually win on
launching a joint war against global December 28 when the votes are
terrorism. counted.
Usually the pre-election waves set In 2002 the National Conference had
trends for position of parties. This time emerged largest party in Kashmir
there are no sweeping waves. There are
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December 2008
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87
A team of Epilogue
comprising staffers
and over two dozen
volunteers traveled
across different
parts of state
between October
30 and November
27 to gauge the
public mood. At an Expected 2008 2002 tally
average of 20 to 25
respondents per NC 24 to 26 28
constituency, a total
of 1914 people were PDP 20 to 22 16
spoken to in all 87
segments to elicit Congress18 to 20 20
their views on
winning prospects of BJP 04 to 06 1
parties and
candidates. The Others* 15 to 19 22
verdict again
appears to be
divided. It is not *Panthers Party, Bahujan Samaj Party,
overwhelmingly in Peoples Democratic Party Front (S),
favour of any party Democratic Party (N), Awami National
or against the other Conference, Ladakh Union Territory Front,
as the mood varies Independents, CPI(M) & Other Smaller
Parties
from case to case
and place to place.
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December 2008
I N F O C U S
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winning 18 seats. Despite anti- standing against Baig could have been had won 15 seats in Jammu region in
incumbency factor and the devastating just like a ceremonial contest. Now 2002 and later six independents joined
Amarnath land low, the NC tally is Mufti gets in tough contest with Beig the party as associate members. Four of
apparently not poised for any surprise and may even win. Mehbooba has them have been given party tickets. Put
up. With loss of a couple of more seats in moved out of Anantnag district and is together, the party may not be in a
North Kashmir and a gain of two to four s e e k i n g e l e c t i o n f r o m Wa c h i , position to repeat its 2002 tally as losses
seats in Central and South Kashmir, the represented by Khalil Naik of CPI(M). at four to five constituencies are quite
NC tally is likely to hover around 20 to 22 Naik is a thorough gentleman devoted to visible at the hands of rebels joining the
seats in the Valley. Though in a bid to his people but Mehbooba's charisma is fray as independents. It had won five
undo mistakes of 2002, the NC fielded likely to have an easy going in Wachi. seats in the Valley last time and securing
31 in new faces out of 46 seats in the PDP had won 16 seats in the Valley and half of this tally in present elections will
Valley but this has backfired. Its sulking its tally is expected to move upwards by not be less than a surprise.
aspirants either jumped into the PDP around four seats this time. It has been
bandwagon or have joined fray as able to make inroads in Srinagar City If BJP were in a position to consolidate
independent candidates. NC is which has long been a traditional its 'gains' of Amarnath agitation, the
expected to retain its one seat in Kargil bastion of the National Conference. In party could have been able to take
and reap dividends of its tacit support to Jammu region, PDP may open its home around 10 to 12 seats. Probably to
the Ladakh Union Terriroty Front in Leh account by one to two seats even as keep its image at the national level, the
but again in Jammu region prospects are party has a serious contest at six of the party did not enter to into a seat sharing
not quite bright. In Jammu, NC had 37 seats in the region. arrangements with leaders of agitation
secured nine seats in 2002 but this time and preferred to go it alone. Now most
scenario is not promising; strong Congress has been a lone sufferer of its of the parties and leaders, in their
rebellion at two seats and fallout of own making –the communally individual capacities, who toiled for
Amarnath land row communalism at surcharged Amarnath land row. But still two months to keep Jammu burning
two more may bring the tally down even there are no major reasons for during land agitation, are in the fray
as it may recapture one seat in Doda disappointment. The parties Congress against each other. Amidst such huge
which the party lost in 2002. should have been worried about have division of votes, if BJP is able to secure
actually come of a help to it. Main four to five seats it will be a big victory
Peoples Democratic Party appears to influence and emphasis of Congress is in ever.
have done a sort of engineering and an Jammu region and it has very little to
astute strategic planning in handling its catch in the Valley. And it was in Jammu Bahujan Samaj Party is contesting on
election exercise. Its Self Rule proposal that BJP and other Hindutva parties more than 60 seats and so is Panthers
though does well to cut the separatist pushed the Congress to wall during Party. Both parties could have won half
sentiment in Kashmir but, after all, Amarnath land row. At one point of time a dozen seats each had they
slogans are not enough to catch votes. It (during Amarnath agitation) it appeared concentrated on not more than twice as
needs planning. The ticket distribution that Congress is about to get wiped out many constituencies. Their
in PDP has been done in a manner that it but the strength its opponents gathered participation on more than two-thirds
has taken opponents by surprise. For eventually turned into their weakness. of total seats in Jammu and Kashmir
example, Pahalgam is a safe bet for PDP Most of the parties which spearheaded may certainly bring them a significant
but the father or daughter –Mufti or agitation are now contesting separately voter share but not exactly the seats.
Mehbooba –are not contesting on this –BJP, Jammu State Morcha, Shiv Sena
home turf. Instead they have fielded a etc. This is a sure division of votes which
Other keen players in Kashmir Valley are
former NC MLA who joined PDP a couple otherwise had to go against the
Peoples Democratic Front of Hakeem
of years back and was subsequently Congress. Adding to this division are
Mohammad Yaseen, Democratic Party of
nominated to the Legislative Council. Panthers Party and Bahujan Samaj Party
Ghulam Hassan Mir, Awami National
Mufti himself has taken on NC who may not pocket much seats but
Conference of GM Shah, CPI(M) and
strongman Dr Mehbooba Beig in have the built up capacity of taking
some potentially strong independent
Anantnag. For any other PDP candidate away a significant vote share. Congress
candidates.
Epilogue Ø
36 ×
December 2008