Urban Land Use Planning, Policies and

Management in Sub Saharan African

Countries: Empirical Evidence from Akure,
Nigeria
Nigeria is one of the most rapidly urbanizing countries in Africa and the challenges that come with this,
especially in the provision of adequate housing and basic services are major challenges that government
faces (FMH&UD, 2003). Attempts to meet the challenges facing the built environment in the country
motivated the government to articulate and introduce some programs and policies as well as created
institutions to control and manage urban land use. Despite the various efforts of government,
individuals and agencies both locally and internationally to improve urban development and particularly
those associated with land use conversion and management, land use problems particularly shortages
and affordability still persist. The questions that need to be addressed include; why do land use
problems still persist despite the various government interventions and actions? Under what conditions
or situaion or circumstances are the policy packages introduced? Do the land use management
practices, condition and circumstances prevailing in the country permit the kind of policy introduced and
what are the situational factors that hinder effective or efficient management of land use in developing
societies such as Nigeria? and what are the effects of these policies on land and housing markets
particularly in context of developing world cities.

The growing problems of land use and the design of effective and efficient management systems to
combat crisis and degradation accompanying uncontrolled and unguided use of land has attracted
international, national and local attentions. The most serious problems confronting cities and towns and
their inhabitants as enumerated by the Habitant II Agenda (2002) include improper land use and
insecure tenure among others. How does land reform affect people’s access to land for housing, cost
and the land market mechanism in context of developing world cities like Akure? Therefore, in the last
few decades, several legislations and legal issuances on land development and environmental
management have been introduced.

Rising costs of land and accessibility to urban land in Nigeria like most developing countries, has become
a serious issue in urban areas of the country. Conventionally policy makers are blamed for this problem,
which has been attributable to a number of factors including corruption and lack of interests to adopt
alternative land use systems. Therefore, in an attempt to meet the challenges facing the built
environment in Nigeria, a number of programmes and policies impinging on urban land use and land
markets have been articulated and introduced. These policies embrace the direct construction of
housing, sites-and services programme, the 1978 Land Use Act that purports to transfer the ownership
and management of land from individuals and communal ownership to public ownership, the 1991
National Housing Policy as well as the revised and reinvigorated National Housing and Urban
Development policy of 2002. The 2002 National Housing Policy sought to ensure that all Nigerians own
or have access to decent, safe and sanitary housing accommodation at affordable cost with secure
tenure through private sector initiative with government encouragement and involvement. The policy
reflects Nigerian government acceptance and commitment to the Habitat Agenda adopted by 171
national governments of achieving “Adequate Shelter for All” and Sustainable human Settlement”. And
the Urban and Regional Planning law of 1992 that seeks to re-organize physical planning in Nigeria as
well as its Ondo State version termed Ondo State Urban and Regional Planning Edict enacted in 1999.

This paper explores land use control mechanisms and organizational structure as well as policies
instituted to manage urban public land in sub Sahara Africa using Akure, the Ondo

Ecological Disasters
Ecological disasters became prevalent in sub-Saharan countries during the last three decades.
Droughts and ecological disasters had lingered in the region since 1968-1974, culminating in the
infamous famines of 1973-74 and 1984-1985. Darfur alone had deaths estimated at 100,000. “By
early1985, the drought and ensuing famine had compelled an estimated 10 millions Africans to
abandon their homelands in search of food and water”[1]. “Live stock also perished in substantial
numbers. A survey conducted by Oxfam in mid 1985 showed that 70 to 80 % of the cows and goats
reared from northern Darfur to southern Darfur”[2]. Between 40% to 50 % of those reared in southern
Darfur died due to lack of water and grass.

The most important factors which precipitated the famine were: underdevelopment, lack of an
efficient food security system, drought, desertification, influx of refugees, and the slow response of
the central government to the early warning signals of famine. This applies to most of the African
Sahel countries.

The Tribal Conflict

Most of the nomads moved south wards after they lost substantial numbers of livestock due to
drought. In Darfur, conflicts also took place between settlers of the same origin like Fellatah vs. Barti.
Both classified as African and between Rizzigat and Mallia, both are considered as Arab, they have
very close relationships but the hostilities continued for long years. There are many other examples.
The case now is not white Arabs versus African blacks; all concerned are dark- skinned Sudanese
Muslims.The main enmity is between rebels, nomads, farmers, tribes, and clans. The violence stems
from land grabs, water sources, banditry, cattle rustling, and local vendettas.

Darfur is situated in the western part of Sudan and has common borders with Libya, Chad, and Central
Africa. The area of Darfur is similar to the area of France (186,000miles) and is inhabited by 7 million
people.

The present disastrous situation in Darfur is the outcome of a complex web of under development,
ecological, political, social, and security factors which will be discussed in this paper.

In the same region, the "bottom billion" living in 58 countries continue to be "trapped" in poverty,
conflict, poor governance and poorly performing health systems. The situation is complicated by the
skewed resource flow for HIV and AIDS to the neglect of other priority health problems in many

Health Policy Development in Sub-Saharan

Africa
Access to HIV and malaria control programmes for refugees and internally displaced persons is not only
a human rights issue but a public health priority for affected populations and host populations. The
primary source of funding for malaria and HIV programmes for many countries is the Global Fund to
Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). This article analyses the current HIV and malaria
National Strategic Plans and Global Fund approved proposals from rounds 1-8 for countries in Africa
hosting populations with refugees and/or internally displaced persons to document their inclusion. The
review was limited to countries in Africa as they constitute the highest caseload of refugees and
internally displaced persons affected by HIV and malaria. Only countries with a refugee and/or internally
displaced persons population of >/= 10,000 persons were included. National Strategic Plans were
retrieved from primary and secondary sources while approved Global Fund proposals were obtained
from the organisation's website. Refugee figures were obtained from the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees' database and internally displaced persons figures from the Internal
Displacement Monitoring Centre. The inclusion of refugees and internally displaced persons was
classified into three categories: 1) no reference; 2) referenced; and 3)   referenced with specific
activities. A majority of countries did not mention internally displaced persons (57%) compared with
48% for refugees in their HIV National Strategic Plans. For malaria, refugees were not included in 47%
of National Strategic Plans compared with 44% for internally displaced persons. A minority (21-29%) of
HIV and malaria National Strategic Plans referenced and included activities for refugees and internally
displaced persons. There were more approved Global Fund proposals for HIV than malaria for
countries with both refugees and internally displaced persons, respectively. The majority of countries
with >/=10,000 refugees and internally displaced persons did not include these groups in their
approved   proposals (61%-83%) with malaria having a higher rate of exclusion than HIV. Countries that
have signed the 1951 refugee convention have an obligation to care for refugees and this includes
provision of health care. Internally displaced persons are citizens of their own country but like
refugees may also not be a priority for Governments' National Strategic Plans and funding proposals.
Besides legal obligations, Governments have a public health imperative to include these groups in
National Strategic Plans and funding proposals. Governments may wish to add a component for
refugees that is additional to the needs for their own citizens. The inclusion of forcibly displaced persons
in funding proposals may have positive direct effects for host populations as international and United
Nations agencies often have strong logistical capabilities that could benefit both populations. For
National Strategic Plans, strong and concerted advocacy at global, regional and country levels needs to
occur to   successfully ensure that affected populations are included in their plans. It is essential for their
inclusion to occur if we are to reach the stated goal of universal access and the Millennium Development
Goals. Nigeria is one of the most rapidly urbanizing countries in Africa and the challenges that come with
this, especially in the provision of adequate housing and basic services are major challenges that
government faces (FMH&UD, 2003). Attempts to meet the challenges facing the built environment in
the country motivated the government to articulate and introduce some programs and policies as well
as created institutions to control and manage urban land use. Despite the various efforts of government,
individuals and agencies both locally and internationally to improve urban development and particularly
those associated with land use conversion and management, land use problems particularly shortages
and affordability still persist. The questions that need to be addressed include; why do land use
problems still persist despite the various government interventions and actions? Under what conditions
or situation or circumstances are the policy packages introduced? Do the land use management
practices, condition and circumstances prevailing in the country permit the kind of policy introduced and
what are the situational factors that hinder effective or efficient management of land use in developing
societies such as Nigeria? and what are the effects of these policies on land and housing markets
particularly in context of developing world cities.

The growing problems of land use and the design of effective and efficient management systems to
combat crisis and degradation accompanying uncontrolled and unguided use of land has attracted
international, national and local attentions. The most serious problems confronting cities and towns and
their inhabitants as enumerated by the Habitant II Agenda (2002) include improper land use and
insecure tenure among others. How does land reform affect people’s access to land for housing, cost
and the land market mechanism in context of developing world cities like Akure? Therefore, in the last
few decades, several legislations and legal issuances on land development and environmental
management have been introduced.

Rising costs of land and accessibility to urban land in Nigeria like most developing countries, has become
a serious issue in urban areas of the country. Conventionally policy makers are blamed for this problem,
which has been attributable to a number of factors including corruption and lack of interests to adopt
alternative land use systems. Therefore, in an attempt to meet the challenges facing the built
environment in Nigeria, a number of programmes and policies impinging on urban land use and land
markets have been articulated and introduced. These policies embrace the direct construction of
housing, sites-and services programme, the 1978 Land Use Act that purports to transfer the ownership
and management of land from individuals and communal ownership to public ownership, the 1991
National Housing Policy as well as the revised and reinvigorated National Housing and Urban
Development policy of 2002. The 2002 National Housing Policy sought to ensure that all Nigerians own
or have access to decent, safe and sanitary housing accommodation at affordable cost with secure
tenure through private sector initiative with government encouragement and involvement. The policy
reflects Nigerian government acceptance and commitment to the Habitat Agenda adopted by 171
national governments of achieving “Adequate Shelter for All” and Sustainable human Settlement”. And
the Urban and Regional Planning law of 1992 that seeks to re-organize physical planning in Nigeria as
well as its Ondo State version termed Ondo State Urban and Regional Planning Edict enacted in 1999.

This paper explores land use control mechanisms and organizational structure as well as policies
instituted to manage urban public land in sub Sahara Africa using Akure, the OndoUrban Land Use
Planning, Policies and Management in Sub Saharan African Countries: Empirical Evidence from Akure,
Nigeria

Ecological Disasters
 Ecological disasters became prevalent in sub-Saharan countries during the last three decades.
Droughts and ecological disasters had lingered in the region since 1968-1974, culminating in the
infamous famines of 1973-74 and 1984-1985. Darfur alone had deaths estimated at 100,000. “By
early1985, the drought and ensuing famine had compelled an estimated 10 millions Africans to
abandon their homelands in search of food and water”[1]. “Live stock also perished in
substantial numbers. A survey conducted by Oxfam in mid 1985 showed that 70 to 80 % of the
cows and goats reared from northern Darfur to southern Darfur”[2]. Between 40% to 50 % of
those reared in southern Darfur died due to lack of water and grass.

The most important factors which precipitated the famine were: underdevelopment, lack of an
efficient food security system, drought, desertification, influx of refugees, and the slow response
of the central government to the early warning signals of famine. This applies to most of the
African Sahel countries.

The Tribal Conflict

Most of the nomads moved south wards after they lost substantial numbers of livestock due to
drought.  In Darfur, conflicts also took place between settlers of the same origin like Fellatah vs.
Barti. Both classified as African and between Rizzigat and Mallia, both are considered as Arab,
they have very close relationships but the hostilities continued for long years. There are many
other examples.

The case now is not white Arabs versus African blacks; all concerned are dark- skinned
Sudanese Muslims.The main enmity is between rebels, nomads, farmers, tribes, and clans. The
violence stems from land grabs, water sources, banditry, cattle rustling, and local vendettas. 

What Happened in Darfur Since 2002?

Darfur is situated in the western part of Sudan and has common borders with Libya, Chad, and
Central Africa. The area of Darfur is similar to the area of France (186,000miles) and is
inhabited by 7 million people.

The present disastrous situation in Darfur is the outcome of a complex web of under
development, ecological, political, social, and security factors which will be discussed in this
paper.

In the same region, the "bottom billion" living in 58 countries continue to be

"trapped" in poverty, conflict, poor governance and poorly performing health
systems. The situation is complicated by the skewed resource flow for HIV and
AIDS to the neglect of other priority health problems in many countries.
Countries are attempting to develop integrated approaches that allow them to
tap into the available resources for HIV and AIDS, but this is yet to be fully
realized. Despite additional flow of national and international resources to health
in Africa, sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of a double, possibly
triple, burden of disease. Health Policies

Domestic and international health policies in sub-Saharan Africa have being shaped by multiple
international agreements and policies. Some of these international agreements and declarations
include: Alma Ata Declaration of 1978; World Bank/IMF Structural Adjustment Program in the
health sector of 1987; World Health Organization's Bamako Initiative in 1987; United Nations
Millennium Declaration/Development Goals in 2000; Paris Declaration of 2005; and the second
primary health care revolution of 2006. These agreements and policies heavily influenced the
development of national health policies in low-income countries.

One of the most influential international declarations on health is the Alma Ata—the Birth of
Primary Health Care: The Declaration of Alma-Ata, formally adopted primary health care
(PHC) as the means for providing a comprehensive, universal, equitable and affordable
healthcare service for all countries. It was unanimously adopted by all WHO member countries
at

aid on public expenditure:

The case of KenyaAccess to HIV and malaria control programmes for refugees and internally displaced
persons is not only a human rights issue but a public health priority for affected populations and host
populations. The primary source of funding for malaria and HIV programmes for many countries is the
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). This article analyses the current HIV
and malaria National Strategic Plans and Global Fund approved proposals from rounds 1-8 for countries
in Africa hosting populations with refugees and/or internally displaced persons to document their
inclusion. The review was limited to countries in Africa as they constitute the highest caseload of
refugees and internally displaced persons affected by HIV and malaria. Only countries with a refugee
and/or internally displaced persons population of >/= 10,000 persons were included. National Strategic
Plans were retrieved from primary and secondary sources while approved Global Fund proposals were
obtained from the organisation's website. Refugee figures were obtained from the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees' database and internally displaced persons figures from the Internal
Displacement Monitoring Centre. The inclusion of refugees and internally displaced persons was
classified into three categories: 1) no reference; 2) referenced; and 3)   referenced with specific
activities. A majority of countries did not mention internally displaced persons (57%) compared with
48% for refugees in their HIV National Strategic Plans. For malaria, refugees were not included in 47%
of National Strategic Plans compared with 44% for internally displaced persons. A minority (21-29%) of
HIV and malaria National Strategic Plans referenced and included activities for refugees and internally
displaced persons. There were more approved Global Fund proposals for HIV than malaria for
countries with both refugees and internally displaced persons, respectively. The majority of countries
with >/=10,000 refugees and internally displaced persons did not include these groups in their
approved   proposals (61%-83%) with malaria having a higher rate of exclusion than HIV. Countries that
have signed the 1951 refugee convention have an obligation to care for refugees and this includes
provision of health care. Internally displaced persons are citizens of their own country but like
refugees may also not be a priority for Governments' National Strategic Plans and funding proposals.
Besides legal obligations, Governments have a public health imperative to include these groups in
National Strategic Plans and funding proposals. Governments may wish to add a component for
refugees that is additional to the needs for their own citizens. The inclusion of forcibly displaced persons
in funding proposals may have positive direct effects for host populations as international and United
Nations agencies often have strong logistical capabilities that could benefit both populations. For
National Strategic Plans, strong and concerted advocacy at global, regional and country levels needs to
occur to   successfully ensure that affected populations are included in their plans. It is essential for their
inclusion to occur if we are to reach the stated goal of universal access and the Millennium Development
Goals.

countries. Countries are attempting to develop integrated approaches that allow them to tap into the
available resources for HIV and AIDS, but this is yet to be fully realized. Despite additional flow of
national and international resources to health in Africa, sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the
brunt of a double, possibly triple, burden of disease.

Health Policies
Domestic and international health policies in sub-Saharan Africa have being shaped by multiple
international agreements and policies. Some of these international agreements and declarations
include: Alma Ata Declaration of 1978; World Bank/IMF Structural Adjustment Program in the health
sector of 1987; World Health Organization's Bamako Initiative in 1987; United Nations Millennium
Declaration/Development Goals in 2000; Paris Declaration of 2005; and the second primary health
care revolution of 2006. These agreements and policies heavily influenced the development of
national health policies in low-income countries.

One of the most influential international declarations on health is the Alma Ata—the Birth of Primary
Health Care: The Declaration of Alma-Ata, formally adopted primary health care (PHC) as the means
for providing a comprehensive, universal, equitable and affordable healthcare service for all countries.
It was unanimously adopted by all WHO member countries at

Another influential international policy that impacted on healthcare delivery in sub-Saharan Africa is
the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). The World Bank's strong ideological framework based on
privatization, cost recovery, and big loans in the health sector was launched in 1987 with a major
emphasis on financial and macroeconomic goals rather than social sector issues. SAP was adopted in
over 40 countries in Africa. The outcome of SAP is generally believed to have been less positive for
healthcare delivery in resource-challenged environments. Loewenson, in his review of SAP, concluded
that its impact had been negative in terms of state of health, food security, and access to care (6). He
also stated that SAP had a major impact on the "brain-drain" of Africa's health workforce, both to the
West and to other more affluent African countries. This brain drain severely hampered the capacity of
national governments to adequately fight HIV and AIDS or significantly address other Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs). The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Independent Evaluation Office
report titled, "The IMF in Sub-Saharan Africa," suggested that IMF conditions required substantial
diversion of foreign aid away from its intended use in areas that directly address poverty alleviation
(e.g., health, HIV/AIDS, and education) in favor of deficit reduction and the accumulation of currency
reserves (7).

Foreign aid on public expenditure :

The case of Kenya

In this era of liberalization, fiscal discipline remains a major key to economic growth

for many economies world over. In the past, developing countries received huge

external aid flows from the donor community aimed at promoting economic growth and

reducing poverty.1

Although several externally financed projects and programmes were initiated,

economic growth and poverty reduction rates have been disappointing. The high flow of

aid monies during the cold war era led to a dependency syndrome portrayed by many

developing countries. Today external resources constitute an integral part of development

expenditure in the developing countries. These countries sometimes face major budgetary

constraints and use aid inflows (based on the previous aid disbursements and current

commitments) to cover any deficits within the exchequer (Levy, 1987; Mosley et al.,

1987; Devarajan, et al., 1998; Ali et al., 1999. Unfortunately, with fiscal problems and

the change in political focus by the donor community, the foreign aid taps seem to be

running dry (Feyzioglu et –al., 1999). This will have serious ramifications for the budget

process of highly aid-dependent countries.

Foreign aid represents an important source of finance in most countries in sub-Saharan

Africa (SSA), where it supplements low savings, narrow export earnings and thin tax

bases. In recent years the donor community has become more stringent about fiscal

discipline and good policies, which has led to freezing of donor funds to governments

that do not conform with aid conditionalities. The Kenyan government has experienced

such aid cuts in the past and this paper uses a welfare utility maximization function to

explore how government expenditure responds to fluctuations in aid flows. The empirical

results indicate that the flow of foreign aid does influence government spending patterns.

There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the share of government

expenditure in gross domestic product (GDP) and the share of net disbursement of overseas

development assistance (ODA). While the study finds relatively little evidence that aid

leads to tax relief, there are strong indications that the government renders aid fungible

by financing recurrent expenditures. The effects of an aid freeze are strong in the short

term as the Treasury embarks on stringent fiscal measures to counteract the negative
HIV pandemic
Access to HIV and malaria control programmes for refugees and internally displaced persons is not only
a human rights issue but a public health priority for affected populations and host populations. The
primary source of funding for malaria and HIV programmes for many countries is the Global Fund to
Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). This article analyses the current HIV and malaria
National Strategic Plans and Global Fund approved proposals from rounds 1-8 for countries in Africa
hosting populations with refugees and/or internally displaced persons to document their inclusion. The
review was limited to countries in Africa as they constitute the highest caseload of refugees and
internally displaced persons affected by HIV and malaria. Only countries with a refugee and/or internally
displaced persons population of >/= 10,000 persons were included. National Strategic Plans were
retrieved from primary and secondary sources while approved Global Fund proposals were obtained
from the organisation's website. Refugee figures were obtained from the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees' database and internally displaced persons figures from the Internal
Displacement Monitoring Centre. The inclusion of refugees and internally displaced persons was
classified into three categories: 1) no reference; 2) referenced; and 3) referenced with specific
activities. A majority of countries did not mention internally displaced persons (57%) compared with
48% for refugees in their HIV National Strategic Plans. For malaria, refugees were not included in 47% of
National Strategic Plans compared with 44% for internally displaced persons. A minority (21-29%) of HIV
and malaria National Strategic Plans referenced and included activities for refugees and internally
displaced persons. There were more approved Global Fund proposals for HIV than malaria for countries
with both refugees and internally displaced persons, respectively. The majority of countries with
>/=10,000 refugees and internally displaced persons did not include these groups in their approved
proposals (61%-83%) with malaria having a higher rate of exclusion than HIV. Countries that have signed
the 1951 refugee convention have an obligation to care for refugees and this includes provision of
health care. Internally displaced persons are citizens of their own country but like refugees may also not
be a priority for Governments' National Strategic Plans and funding proposals. Besides legal obligations,
Governments have a public health imperative to include these groups in National Strategic Plans and
funding proposals. Governments may wish to add a component for refugees that is additional to the
needs for their own citizens. The inclusion of forcibly displaced persons in funding proposals may have
positive direct effects for host populations as international and United Nations agencies often have
strong logistical capabilities that could benefit both populations. For National Strategic Plans, strong and
concerted advocacy at global, regional and country levels needs to occur to successfully ensure that
affected populations are included in their plans. It is essential for their inclusion to occur if we are to
reach the stated goal of universal access and the Millennium Development Goals.

Small-scale irrigation for food security in sub-Saharan Africa

In Africa, agriculture forms the backbone of most of the continent’s economies,
providing about 60% of all employment. During the last decade, per capita agricultural

production has not kept pace with population growth. Consequently, as per the Food

and Agriculture Organization's (FAO’s) assessments1, at the end of the 1990s, 30

countries in Africa had over 20% of their population undernourished, rising to 35% in

the 18 worse affected countries. In terms of absolute numbers, between 1997–99, 200

million people were malnourished, with 194 million of these people living in sub-Saharan

Africa (SSA). The food gap estimated at 17 million tons in 2000 was filled by imports

(14.2 million tons) and food aid (2.8 million tons) at a cost of US$18.7 billion. In 2001,

close to 30 million people required food emergencies due to droughts, floods and civil

strife.

Development of the agricultural sector in Africa is therefore seen as central to combating

hunger, reducing poverty, and generating economic growth (through the reduction of

food imports and the boosting of exports). However, progress in the sector can only be

achieved if the main constraints (listed below) are successfully addressed:

• Variability in climate

• Limited access to technology

• Low levels of rural infrastructure

• Poor institutional structures.

Other areas that need addressing are the poor political and economic governance, the

need to introduce supportive policy and legislation, the need to develop rural

entrepreneurship capacity, combat HIV/AIDS, mobilise savings for investment and

improve the performance of cash crops.

Although there are various ways in which the above-mentioned issues can be tackled,

one key strategy that could contribute to the alleviation of poverty and improvement in

food insecurity in SSA is assisting poor farmers to increase the productivity of their

farms. Low farm productivity can be addressed through integrated approaches such as

increasing the use of organic and mineral fertilizers, using improved seed varieties,
applying irrigation techniques and improving the level of mechanisation.

FAO estimates that for the next 30 years, 75% of the projected growth in crop

production in SSA could come in the form of crop yield increases (62%) and higher crop

intensities (13%), with arable land expansion accounting for the remaining 25%

Privatising Basic Utilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Push for Privatisation

When countries in sub-Saharan Africa became independent, the state dominated

the provision of utilities. However, in the 1980s the debt crisis and the ensuing

contraction of budgets prompted a re-appraisal of public sector provision. Donors

began lobbying for the restructuring of public services; by the 1990s, they were

demanding full-scale privatisation. However, implementation of such reforms has been slow.

One of the chief reasons: lack of interest from private investors. After an initial surge, the pace of privatisation
slowed markedly.

Between 1990 and 2003, less than four per cent of global private investment in infrastructure went to sub-
Saharan Africa.

Thus, many governments have had to re-align their expectations. They now focus on creating the right
conditions for private investors,

having put full-scale privatisation on the back-burner. This approach also involves resorting to short-term
management contracts with

private firms as an interim measure.

The initial hopes for privatisation were so high that donor spending on infrastructure fell in the expectation that
the private sector

would take up the slack. For example, World Bank lending for infrastructure investment declined by 50 per cent
during 1993-2002—

with much of this directed towards preparing firms for privatisation. In 2002, Bank lending for water and
sanitation projects, in

particular, was only 25 per cent of its annual average during 1993-97.

At the same time, the World Bank increased its support for private investment in utilities through its
International Finance Corporation
and its Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. While Bank lending to public electricity utilities dropped
from about US$ 2.9 billion

in 1990 to only US$ 824 million in 2001, its sector lending to private investors rose from US$ 45 million to US$
687 million.

Hence, African countries have been caught in a terrible bind. Not only has donor financing of public investment
declined but also

private investment has followed suit. Moreover, many governments have had to adopt fiscal austerity
programmes, which have led

to further declines in domestic public investment in utilities.

Achieving the MDGs

Lack of investment has meant that most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made

DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES AND THE STABILITY OF THE STATE

IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
THE SOURCES OF STATE FAILURE

Nation states usually fail when they are overwhelmed by internal violence and can no

longer deliver positive political goods to their citizens. The government loses its

credibility and legitimacy with its citizens (Rotberg 1). Various factors interact and cause

states to fail. Some are historical while others dynamic and are occurring presently.

Inherent geographical, physical and economic constraints leave some states weaker than

others and thus more susceptible to failure. A state’s ability to penetrate society, obtain

and maintain the loyalty of its citizens is crucial to its survival.

Moore

The Foreign Policy Association and the Fund for Peace have created a failed

states index with 12 indicators that point towards state failure. These indicators interact

within the framework created by the three factors listed earlier: a colonial legacy, the

Cold War and Globalization. The twelve indicators are:

a) Mounting Demographic Pressures , b) Massive Movement of Refugees or

Internally Displaced Persons Creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

c) Legacy of Vengeance-seeking group or group paranoia, d) Chronic and

Sustained Human Flight d) Uneven Economic Development Along Group

Lines e) Sharp and or Severe Economic Decline f) Criminalization or

Delegitimization of the State g) Progressive Decline of Public Services

h) Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread

Violation of Human Rights, i) Security Apparatus Operates as a State Within

a State, j) Rise of Factionalized Elites, k) Intervention of Other States or

External Political Actors

A state, however, needs not possess all twelve indicators to fail. Some states, like

India, have a colonial legacy, existed through the Cold War have embraced globalization

without failing. Botswana, Mauritius, Mali and Malawi continue to face many of the

problems associated with state failure, but have not failed (Rotberg, 20).

This paper will focus mainly on one of those indicators – population trends. Many

of the other indicators will be discussed, but not in depth as will population.

Water Stress in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from chronically overburdened water systems under
increasing stress from fast-growing urban areas. Weak governments, corruption,
mismanagement of resources, poor long-term investment, and a lack of
environmental research and urban infrastructure only exacerbate the problem.
In some cases, the disruption or contamination of water supply in urban
infrastructures and rural area has incited domestic and cross-border violence.
Experts say incorporating water improvements into economic development is
necessary to end the severe problems caused by water stress and to improve
public health and advance the economic stability of the region.

Why is sub-Saharan Africa more vulnerable to water stress than other regions?
Insufficient infrastructure is a major reason. In a January 2006 UN research
paper that assessed global progress on water quality, P.B. Anand, an
environmental economist at Britain's Bradford Centre for International
Development, noted a significant regional disparity in sanitation infrastructure
between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions (PDF).

Another disparity is evident within the sub-continent: Of the 980 large dams in
sub-Saharan Africa, around 589 are in South Africa, whereas Tanzania, a country
with nearly the same land mass and population, only has two large dams.
Jonathan Lautze of Tufts University says, "If you look at all of Africa,
disproportionate quantities of storage are destined for a few countries like
South Africa and Egypt. Generalized regional or continental figures may fail to
fully reflect how dire the situation really is in many countries and how much
potential for development there is." The UN Environment Program (UNEP)
compares water scarcity and quality today with a projection for the future:
Currently, access to safe water in sub-Saharan Africa is worse than any other
area on the continent, with only 22 percent to 34 percent of populations in at
least eight sub-Saharan countries having access to safe water. The UNEP
projects that in the year 2025, as many as twenty-five African nations— roughly
half the continent's countries—are expected to suffer from a greater
combination of increased water scarcity and water stress.

Increasing tax revenue in sub-Saharan Africa:

The tax base in Kenya, as in most sub-Saharan African countries, is extremely

narrow. So far, attempts to increase tax revenue have focused on closing the

‘taxation gap’ and expanding the tax base. The main policies recommended by
the

IMF have led to trade liberalisation, the transition from a sales tax to a system
of
VAT, and the creation of the Kenya Revenue Authority.

These policies have had mixed results. The reduction in tariffs has been
successful,

as increased imports have so far more than compensated for the reduction in
tariffs

and resulted in an increase in trade tax revenue. However, the impact of

domestic

tax reforms has been less impressive. Most importantly, revenue collected from
VAT

and direct taxation has not increased as hoped. Neither the switch to VAT, nor
the

creation of the KRA has significantly altered the proportion of government

revenue

made up by domestic taxation.

One reason for this is the structural weaknesses in the Kenyan economy that
place

limits on the possibilities of revenue expansion. In particular, low levels of

formal

employment, poverty wages and a high dependency ratio mean that there are
strong

constraints on the state’s ability to increase income tax revenue.

In this context, the continued emphasis of the IMF on trade liberalisation is of

great

concern. The positive impact of liberalisation in 1993 was a consequence of

specific
circumstances that no longer pertain. As is recognised by all sides, a further

reduction in tariffs would result in a fall in tax revenue. However, recent IMF
reports

have suggested that countries such as Kenya can compensate for this decline by

increasing revenue from domestic taxation. Given the constraints on the

expansion

of domestic taxation this seems unlikely, and the consequence will be that the

Kenyan government will remain dependent on international donors to support

basic

government programs.

Worryingly, there is some evidence that the pressure to both meet domestic

expectations and display fiscal responsibility is leading the Kenyan government

to

exaggerate estimated future tax revenues. This allows the government to fulfil
its

expensive election promises and present balanced books to the donor

community,

but will ultimately lead to future budget cuts unless donors agree to cover the
short

fall in the near future. To support the ability of the Kenyan government to attain
selfsufficiency

and to allow for consistent economic planning it is imperative that further

According

to the IMF, in Guinea Bissau, aid constitutes 37.3% of GDP, whilst in Sierra
Leone
and Malawi, the percentage is 28.7% and 26.2% of GDP respectively.

Kenya is in a better position than these countries with aid from external donors

making up only 4.9% of GDP (in 1998-2003: this figure is liable to fluctuate from
year

to year). The bulk of government expenditure can therefore be financed

through

taxation, which the government aims to keep at or above 21% of GDP. However,
the

Kenyan tax base is still extremely narrow. In the period 1980-1998 the
proportion of

total tax revenue collected through taxes on income, profits and capital gains
rose

from 29% to just 31%.1 This reflects the fact that historically the vast majority of

Kenyan tax revenue was raised from sales taxes and import/export duties