Climate change

Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods
of time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in the average weather
conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average, for example,
greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may
occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually refers to
changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change, more generally
known as global warming or anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

Terminology

The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate
system when considered over periods of decades or longer, regardless of cause Accordingly,
fluctuations on periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Niño, do not represent climate change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity; for
example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change defines climate change as "a
change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods."[3] In the latter sense climate change is synonymous with global
warming.

Causes

Factors that can shape climate are climate forcings. These include such processes as variations in solar
radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either
amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice
caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate
system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Levels

In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the
environment. In some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and
unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), while in other instances it is
less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for many years.
Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for
the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the past several decades. [26] Consequently, the
debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to
change that has already occurred.[27]

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO 2 levels due to emissions from
fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement
manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture[28] and
deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and in conjunction with other
factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past
climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the
mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are
inferred from changes in proxies, indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[29]
dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.

Historical and archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and
agricultural patterns.[30] Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer
insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of
various civilisations.[30]

Climate Change or Global Warming?

The term climate change is often used interchangeably with the term global warming, but according to
the National Academy of Sciences, "the phrase 'climate change' is growing in preferred use to 'global
warming' because it helps convey that there are [other] changes in addition to rising temperatures."

Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature,
precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). Climate change may result
from:

 natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or slow changes in the Earth's orbit
around the sun;
 natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean circulation);
 human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels)
and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)

Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface
and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. Global warming
can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and human induced. In common usage, "global
warming" often refers to the warming that can occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse
gases from human activities.

The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice
ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the
Earth's orbit, and the amount of energy released from the Sun have affected the Earth's climate.
Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution have
also changed the composition of the atmosphere and therefore very likely are influencing the Earth's
climate.
Science

For over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation have
caused the concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" to increase significantly in our
atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space, somewhat like the glass panels of a
greenhouse.

Greenhouse gases are necessary to life as we know it, because they keep the planet's surface warmer
than it otherwise would be. But, as the concentrations of these gases continue to increase in the
atmosphere, the Earth's temperature is climbing above past levels. According to NOAA and NASA
data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4ºF in the last 100 years.
The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year
being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities. Other
aspects of the climate are also changing such as rainfall patterns, snow and ice cover, and sea level.

U.S. Climate Policy

The Federal government is using voluntary and incentive-based programs to reduce emissions and has
established programs to promote climate technology and science. This strategy incorporates know-
how from many federal agencies and harnesses the power of the private sector.

EPA plays a significant role in helping the Federal government reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
greenhouse gas intensity. EPA has many current and near-term initiatives that encourage voluntary
reductions from a variety of stakeholders. Initiatives, such as ENERGY STAR, Climate Leaders, and
our Methane Voluntary Programs, encourage emission reductions from large corporations, consumers,
industrial and commercial buildings, and many major industrial

are expected to experience the most warming. In fact, Alaska has been experiencing significant
changes in climate in recent years that may be at least partly related to human caused global climate
change.

What You Can Do

Greenhouse gases are emitted as a result of the energy we use by driving and using electricity and
through other activities that support our quality of life like growing food and raising livestock.
Greenhouse gas emissions can be minimized through simple measures like changing light bulbs in
your home and properly inflating your tires to improve your car's fuel economy. The What You Can
Do section of the climate change site identifies over 25 action steps that individuals can take to
decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the nation's energy independence and also save money.

State and local governments and businesses play an important role in reducing greenhouse emissions
and greenhouse gas intensity. For example, major corporations, states and local organizations are
taking action through participation in a wide range of EPA and other federal voluntary programs.

You can start by assessing your own contribution to the problem, by using EPA's Household
Emissions Calculator to estimate your household's annual emissions. Once you know about how much
you emit, you use the tool to see how simple steps you take at home, at the office, on the road, and at
school can reduce your emissions. Visit the What You Can Do section of this site to learn more.

Open letters

In April 2006, a group describing itself as "sixty scientists" signed an open letter[60] to the Canadian
Prime Minister Stephen Harper to ask that he revisit the science of global warming and "Open Kyoto
to debate." As with the earlier statements, critics pointed out that many of the signatories were non-
scientists or lacked relevant scientific backgrounds. [citation needed] For example, the group included David
Wojick, a journalist, and Benny Peiser, a social anthropologist. More than half the signatories cited
past or emeritus positions as their main appointments. Only two (Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer)
indicated current appointments in a university department or a recognized research institute in climate
science.[61] One of the signatories has since publicly recanted, stating that his signature was obtained
by deception regarding the content of the letter. [62] In response shortly afterward another open letter to
Prime Minister Harper endorsing the IPCC report and calling for action on climate change was
prepared by Gordon McBean and signed by 90 Canadian climate scientists initially, plus 30 more who
endorsed it after its release.[63][64]

In October 2009, the leaders of 18 US scientific societies and organizations sent an open letter to
members of the United States Senate stating, "Observations throughout the world make it clear that
climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases
emitted by human activities are the primary driver." [65] The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts
on the United States such as sea level rise and increases in extreme weather events, water scarcity,
heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems.

CLAMATIC CHANGE IN BANGLADESH AND ITS EFFECT

Bangladesh: At the mercy of climate change

It is more exposed than any other country to global warming. And a series of unusual events - from
dying trees to freak weather - suggest its impact is already being felt. Justin Huggler reports from the
Sundarbans nature reserve

Monday, 19 February 2007

The Sundarbans nature reserve in Bangladesh's south-west is one of the last untouched places on
Earth - and home to the largest population of tigers left in the wild. But the trees in the Sundarbans
have suddenly started dying. And not just that: they have started dying in a way nobody has seen
before, from the top down.

Nobody is sure what the cause is, but the country's leading scientists think the trees are dying because,
in recent years, the water has turned from fresh to salty. The Sundarbans is a massive mangrove
swamp, and the sea has begun encroaching. What we are seeing may be one of the first casualties of
rising sea levels caused by global warming. "Nobody can say for sure whether it is climate change
because there haven't been proper in-depth studies," says Professor Ainun Nishat, one of the country's
leading environmentalists, and one of those involved in the UN's recent climate change report. "But
this is the sort of effect rising sea levels will have on Bangladesh. We are fighting climate change on
the front line. But the battle has to be integrated across all countries."

Related articles

Then there were the deaths of thousands of fishermen off Bangladesh last summer. The Bay of Bengal
was unusually rough. Usually, the authorities only issue a storm warning to fishermen to stay at home
once or twice a year. Last year, four warnings were issued in the space of two months. Every warning
meant the fishermen lost valuable days at sea. When the last warning came, they could not afford to
stay ashore and went to sea anyway. Officially 1,700 drowned, but many Bangladeshis believe the
real number may be closer to 10,000.

"Was it climate change? We don't know," says Dr Nishat. "Was it unusual? Yes."
The weather in Bangladesh is going crazy. Last week, a freak tornado struck. Tornadoes occur
regularly in Bangladesh - but usually only in the tornado season, in April. A tornado in February is
almost unheard of.

Also, there were the strange events of 2004, when the tides in the estuaries of the Ganges,
Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers stopped ebbing and flowing. The water level just stayed at high tide.
The same year, the capital, Dhaka, was hit by floods so severe the ground floors of most buildings
were under water, and a catfish was caught in one of the government buildings.

And in 2005, the country had no winter at all. Westerners tend to assume the whole of the
subcontinent is hot all year round; in fact, Bangladesh, like much of northern India, gets quite cold in
winter. Except that it didn't last year. Winter never came - with serious effects on the year's potato
crop. This year, too, it has not been as cold as usual.

"We have a saying, in February, even the tigers feel the cold," says Arun Karmaker, the environment
correspondent for Prothom Alo newspaper. "But these days, a visitor to Bangladesh would find it hard
to believe."

Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The entire country is basically one vast river
delta, and that has always left it at the mercy of weather extremes. The villages of the south-east may
often lack electricity or clean water, but a cyclone shelter is never far away. In Dhaka, the rent for a
typical first-floor apartment is £52 a month. On the ground floor of the same building, it is just £37 -
because the ground floor gets flooded almost every year.

But the country's climate experts say the weather is growing more extreme - and becoming
unpredictable. And this is in the most densely populated country in the world, if you don't count city-
states or small islands, home to 147 million people. That leaves a worrying question: what happens to
those 147 million people if parts of this already overcrowded country become uninhabitable due to
rising sea levels.

The problem is, nobody really knows just how much effect climate change will have on Bangladesh.
"We still don't have a proper study of the impact of global warming here," says Mr Karmaker. "Up till
now, no one has done one." The classic scenario of climate change disaster in Bangladesh is of rising
sea levels flooding most of the country, forcing as many as 40 million people to flee. Scientists have
measured small rises in the sea level at various points around the coast, and almost all of Bangladesh
lies less than 10m (30ft) above sea level.

But what is less well known is that Bangladesh has a defence against that scenario: a huge series of
dykes made of boulders that stretch along the entire coast - a literal fortification in the battle to
survive climate change. The dykes were put up to protect against the storm surges Bangladesh
periodically suffers from, but should be high enough to withstand the predicted rise in sea levels.

But that doesn't mean Bangladesh is safe from climate change, says Dr Nishat. "The dykes create their
own problems," he says. "By trapping rainfall on the inside, they could end up causing flooding. And
they do nothing to stop salinity spreading through our water."

It is not just the Sundarbans that is already suffering the effects of rising salinity. Farmers in coastal
areas who used to grow rice have switched to farming prawns, after the water in their paddy fields got
too salty. The country has just developed a new strain of rice that will grow in salty water. For a
country where agriculture makes up 21 per cent of GDP - and with 147 million people to feed - rising
levels of salinity are a serious threat. Already, Bangladeshi farmers can only produce 8 tons of rice per
hectare, compared to 17 tons in China.

But it could be more serious than that, Dr Nishat warns. "The direction of the monsoon has changed in
the last few years," he says. "The depression that brings the rain used to advance north across
Bangladesh. Now it is heading west." That could have devastating implications in the event of a
tropical cyclone, he says.
Bangladesh has suffered cyclones many times. But Dr Nishat says the change in direction of the
monsoon may mean any cyclone spends more time gathering pace over the Bay of Bengal.

"When Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005, it was only a category three hurricane
while it was over Florida," he says. "It was when it headed across the Gulf of Mexico that it turned
into a category five. It gathered heat from the sea. And the Bay of Bengal is hot."

Flooding could also be a problem - not from rising sea levels, but from the increasingly erratic
rainfall. "We are used to flooding here, we need it for our agriculture and people are used to being
knee-deep in water," says Dr Nishat. "But now we are seeing extremely high rainfalls - more than
people can easily cope with, and it damages the crops. In 2004, we saw 352mm [14in] of rainfall in a
day."

But if the classic scenario is of Bangladesh flooding, there is a risk that climate change may bring
drought instead. Already, the north-west of the country faced an unprecedented drought last year,
when the monsoon rains failed, and had to resort to pumping ground water for irrigation. The irony
was that the north-west was experiencing a drought even as the north-east was suffering its heaviest
rainfall ever.

"What I'm worried about is the melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas," says Dr Nishat. Bangladesh
relies on the annual melting of snow in the mountains to feed its rivers. "At the moment, we're
probably seeing a slight increase in the river flow because of it. But what happens in two to five years
when the glaciers are gone?"

The Bangladeshi government is taking the problem seriously, according to Dr Nishat. "Things are
much better than they used to be," he says. "We used to go to the Environment Ministry and they'd
say: "Climate change? That's the West's problem, they're making all the carbon emissions. What does
it have to do with us? Now they understand that it affects Bangladesh."

But, he says, problems are still caused by turf battles between ministries, and the country's lack of
joined-up government.

With its own annual carbon dioxide emissions only 172kg (380lb) per capita, compared to 21 tons in
the US, Bangladesh has some reason to feel aggrieved to be suffering the effects of climate change
before others do.

What is happening in Bangladesh may be a warning of what is to come, but the country is not the only
one facing the dangers of climate change.

"People always come to Bangladesh to talk about rising sea levels," says Dr Nishat. "Have you
considered that London is the same height above sea level as most of Bangladesh? You have the
Thames barrier, and we have our dykes. By the time Bangladesh is flooded, you will have lost
London."

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Climate change taking its toll on Bangladesh

Fri, 08/10/2010 - 12:23am | by priyo.news

It is Ashwin in Bangla calendar, officially autumn in Bangladesh and usually the season of benign
sunlight. And so it happened for generations.

But things are different now.

Last week was hot with intense humidity. Profuse sweating drenched people. But yesterday it was like
monsoon, drizzling and sometimes pouring down with rain the whole day.

This July was the driest in the decade, said the meteorological office. It prompted some farmers at
Ramchandra village in Shadullahpur, Gaibandha to marry off frogs, a rainmaking ritual in the country.
Foreign media also covered the event.

Though there are six seasons in Bangladesh, three of them--summer, monsoon and winter--are
noticeable. The farmers of the country depend on their traditional knowledge.

Agronomists say the farmers, who have been ever intuitive about weather, fail to predict the rain
nowadays.

Monsoon rains normally sweep Bangladesh from June to September, with the country receiving more
than 75 percent of its annual rainfall.

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In 2009, there were not enough monsoon rains in mid-July to enable farmers to prepare fields and
transplant Aman rice. It didn't rain until the beginning of August that year, which delayed the
transplantation even though the seedlings were ready.

The weather is vital to a country where over 60 percent people depend on agriculture, said Zainul
Abedin, president of Bangladesh Society of Agronomists, while talking about climate change and its
impact on agriculture at a seminer.

Even this year farmers in many parts of the country did not have water in the rainy season to rot their
jute, the golden fibre of Bangladesh.

“Farmers from far away, even from other upazila, came to our village to rot their jute. We were lucky
that we had water,” said Yunus Hossain, a farmer of Gopalganj, over the telephone.

Not only in Bangladesh, this phenomenon happened in many other parts of the world.

In July, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) of the United States reported that
June 2010 was the warmest June on record while 2010 is the warmest year ever recorded.

Meteorology experts observe that it is proven that the mean temperature of the country is increasing.

The Dhaka Met office found a trend of temperature rise in every season analysing 55 years' weather
data between 1951 and 2005. The annual mean temperature also has shown a rising tendency, said
meteorologist Shameem Hassan Bhuiyan.

The geographical position of the country is an important factor as the Himalayas is in the North and
the Bay of Bengal lies in the south.

“So if the temperature increases, it creates convection clouds that cause long dry spell and short spell
of heavy rainfall. It is happening in some parts of the country,” said Shameem.

Besides, the mounting temperature is causing rise in the sea level, which only adds to the sufferings of
the farmers, observed agronomists.

Water levels rose by at least 5.6 mm a year at Hiron point, 1.4 mm at Cox's Bazar and 2.9 mm at
Khepupara, they said citing 2008 data from Bangladesh Water Development Board.

In the recent years, extreme natural calamities have caused mammoth loss of life and assets as well as
economic losses, said Ainun Nishat at a seminar a few days ago.
“All these are happening due to climate change. The weather is acting weird not only in Bangladesh,
but in the other parts of the world,” he said, adding that most unusually the temperature of Moscow,
Russia, was more than that of Dhaka this summer.

India, Pakistan, China, the Middle East and many European countries are also experiencing unusual
weather events, he said.

-Daily Star

Examining the Issues Towards Solving the Problems of Climate Change

The debate is almost over. We've agreed that the world is at risk from global warming. Even President
Bush agreed before he left office. What we need to address now is what to do about it.

Physical and social scientists tell us that it is the poor, the very young, the old, and those with
disabilities who suffer, and will continue to suffer, most from the effects of global warming. Sadly the
rich

 nations, and particularly those within them who have the most, no longer seem to care about those
least of their brethren, as demonstrated by the millions of people who die every day from hunger and
exposure throughout the world while the disparities between the rich and poor continue to grow. The
environmental change will exacerbate those issues.

In October 2002 the Black Leadership Forum, the Southern Organizing Committee for Economic and
Social Justice, the Georgia Coalition for The People's Agenda, and Clear the Air put together a report
about the unequal effects of global warming on African Americans. They concluded that African
Americans are particularly at risk from pollution because they live in areas where there are more
pollutants.

On July 20, 2004 Congresswoman Eddie Johnson and the Congressional Black Caucus reported on
the negative consequences of global warming on the African American population. They have
declared the need to take action internationally and support measures to reduce air pollutants that add
to climate change.

Speaking from the floor of the House during debate on H.R. 5441, the Department of Homeland
Security Appropriations Act, this year, Congressman Kucinich offered an amendment to conduct a
comprehensive study of the increase in demand for FEMA's emergency response and disaster relief
services that he observed is related to weather related disasters tied to global warming, particularly as
expected during the next 20 years. Kucinich spoke eloquently about the problem:
http://kucinich.house.gov/Issues/Issue/?IssueID=1560

"Hurricane Katrina gave us another grim warning, telling us not only what we should e

o xpect, but showing us what happens if we are not prepared

Bangladesh & Seas  Bangladesh & Se

Climate Change & Bangladesh

Global Climate Change & Bangladesh....

Greenhouse Effect: The Science

The temperature of a greenhouse is raised by using
a shield through which solar radiation is allowed
to enter but the consequential heat is prevented from escaping. In a roughly analogous
manner, certain trace gases in the atmosphere notably carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N20), water vapour, ozone (O3) and the chloroflrocarbons (CFCs) are
transparent to high energy solar radiation, having short-wave length, but absorb long-wave
terrestial radiation, thus trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. The global atmospheric
concentrations of these trace gases have been increasing, largely due to human activities, and
likely to increase substantially in the future. The result is in theory, warming of the Earth's
surface and lower atmosphere.

The phenomenon has become known as the "Greenhouse Effect" in popular terminology, and
its consequential effect is known as "Global Warming". The gases responsible for this are
known as Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). The magnitude of this warming would depend on the
rate of increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the radioactive
properties of the gases involved and the complex feed-back processes in the earth-
atmosphere system.

There exists a delicate balance between earth's hot equatorial climate, cold polar long
regions, wind and rainfall patterns. With an increased load of GHGs into the atmosphere and
its consequential effect, a new pattern of temperature, wind and rainfall distribution would
result. It is believed that the new climate patterns would be significantly different compared
to that being observed in different parts of the world.

GHGs and Their Global Emissions

The concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are

believed to have changed naturally on ice-age time
scales, and have been increasing since pre-
industrial times due to anthropogenic activities.
Table-1 summarises the present and pre-industrial
abundances, current rates of change and the
atmospheric lifetimes of GHGs. influenced by
anthropogenic activities. The abundance of the
GHGs were relatively constant for over a thousand
years prior to the industrial
revolution. However, with increasing population
atmospheric GHG concentrations increased significantly. Evidences from air trapped in
Antarctic and Greenland ice shows that there have been major increases in the concentrations
of radiatively active gases since the beginning of the industrial revolution (Barnola et at.,
1987; Chappellaz et at., 1990).

Table- 1 : The principal greenhouse gases influenced by

anthropogenic activities

Gas CO2 CH4 CFC12 N20 HCFC22 CF4

Pre-industrial
atmospheric
280 ppmv 0.70 0 275 0 0
concentration (1750-
1800)
Current atmospheric
355 ppmv 1.72 5.03 311 105 70
concentration (1992)
1.1-
Recent rate of concentration 1.5 ppmv 0.013 18-20   0.75 7-8      
1.3
change per (over 1980s) (0.4%) (0.8%) (4%) (0.25%) (7%)
(2%)
Atmospheric Lifetime
50-200 12-17 102 120 13.3 50,000
(years)
Global warming          20
 1 62.0 5000 290 4300 4100
years
Potential                 100 years  1 24.5 4000 320 1700 6300
Relative to CO2       500
 1 7.5 1400 180 520 9800
years

Source: IFCC, 1994 a

The important issue in the emission of GHGs is the large gap between the developed and the
developing countries. The rich developed countries are emitting GHGs as a result of their
wasteful consumption pattern and reckless lifestyle. On the other hand activities of vast
population living in poor developing countries also contributing to the GHG load. The per
capita GHG emission by industrialised countries is about 6 times the world average
emissions, while
GHG emissions from USA alone accounts for 20% of the total global emissions.

Countries like Bangladesh are not big GHG emitters. Unfortunately, as predicted by the
national and international research communities involved in climate change impact
assessments, poor countries such as Bangladesh would be the worst victims of climate
change and sea level rise.

Sea Level Rise

One of the most important consequences of an increase in mean global temperatures will be a
possible rise in the sea level around the planet. The reasons for this rise in sea level include:

 The expansion of the ocean's volume when water temperatures increase. Although
small, such thermal expansion can translate to a considerable rise in mean sea levels.
 Mountain glacier melt will also contribute a sizeable amount of water to the oceans,
which will also contribute to sea level rise. It should be noted that such mountain
glaciers melt will not only contribute to sea level rise once the water reaches the sea,
but will also contribute to sea level rise once the water reaches the sea, but will also
contribute to increased flooding in floodplains.
 Meltwater from the land is expected to be the third component.

In addition to the rise in sea level due to increased temperatures, as described above, the land
surface of the planet is also undergoing changes in elevation due to a number of factors,
including tectonic changes, sedimentation etc.

Climate Change and Concern of Bangladesh

Bangladesh, .one of the most densely populated countries in the world. With over 755 people
per square Km has a per capita income only about US$235. Over 40% of the population live
in poverty. With its high population density, low level of development, and low lying deltaic
mass, Bangladesh has already been facing a number of natural and man made problems.
Natural hazards like cyclones, floods, droughts and socio-economic problems such as
poverty, low literacy, poor health delivery systems, high unemployment are some of them. In
the future Bangladesh .may also have to face adverse impact of development across Its
border -Which among other things, are expected to have reduced availability of water during
the dry season and has to deal with impacts of climate change and sea level rise. To better
prepare the country for dealing with these impacts pragmatic planning is needed based on
authentic data and analyses from scientific studies.

Carbon di-oxide emissions

The commercial energy in Bangladesh is supplied from the following sources:

i) Natural gas (Indigeneous)

ii) Petroleum

a) Imported petroleum products

b) Imported crude oil
c) Local crude oil from Haripur Oil Field

iii) Coal, primarily imported, and

iv) Hydropower

Among these, the last one is not used for estimation of any carbon di-oxide emission, The
carbon di-oxide emission from the consumption of the rest, all fossil fuels, has been
calculated using the 6-step methodology. The estimates are summarised in Table-4,

From these estimates, one reaches the following conclusions:

 The total carbon dioxide released from all primary fossil fuel use in Bangladesh
amounted to 13,443 Gg in 1990.
 The corresponding value of carbon (oxidized) amounted to 3,666 Gg in the base
year.
 On a per capita basis the above values of carbon dioxide and carbon emission (1990
population being 109 million) amounted to just about 123,3 and 33.6 Kgs
respectively.
 Biomass combustion caused an annual release of 61283.7 Gg of CO2 in 1990. The
emission from agricultural residues contributed to about 59% of total emissions from
biomass energy combustion. As indicated earlier, however, emission from biomass
combustion has not been considered for estimating total carbon di-oxide emission.

Emission Sources

Emission from energy production

In Bangladesh, natural gas is the only indigenous source of commercial energy, excepting a
little oil discovered in 1987 and coal which remain yet to be mined. Hence natural gas
production is the only source from which methane emission needs to be considered, The
natural gas companies reported the following two types of natural gas losses during
production and distribution:

Venting and flaring losses                   6.983 MMCF/Yr.

Transmission and distribution losses 305.010 MMCF/Yr.
Total                                             311.993 MMCF/Yr.

Corrected for average methane content of Bangladesh natural gas (96%), the total loss
equalled 299.51 MMCF/Yr. Converted into weight, it is estimated that about 6.1 Gg of
methane (CH4) gas is emitted due to energy (natural gas) production.

Table- 2 : CO2 emissions from primary energy sources in Bangladesh

Carbon
Apparent Net
Emission Fraction
Energy Carbon Total CO2
Primary energy Sources Factor of
Consumptio Emission Emitted (Gg)
(103 Carbon
n (PJ) (Gg)
tC/PJ)

Natural Gas 135.0 15.3 2,224.8 0.995 8,116.8

Petroleum Products 85.1 0.70 1,200.7 0.990 4,358.5
Highspeed diesel 42.4 19.5 720.4    
Superior Kerosene 20.7 19.6 140.4
Furnace oil 6.8 20.2 258.0
Motor spirit 4.9 17.2 6.9
Jet propellant 4.2 19.5 55.7
Jet batching oil 1.2 21.1 0.0
Lubricating 1.5 20.0 13.2
Bitumen 1.6 22.0 0.0
Others 1.9 20.0 6.1
Coal (anthracite) 12.4 26.8 269.3 0.980 967.6
Total 13,442.9
Source: Global climate Change: Bangladesh Episode, DOE, MoEF, GOB.
Emission from Landfills

Very little quantitative information exists in Bangladesh on municipal waste. The Study
Team could obtain some information only from Dhaka City and some fragmented
information on other principal towns. In Dhaka, the following information could be
collected, but again in a fragmentary manner:

Municipal solid waste generated

Municipal waste used for landfilling
Total area landfilled

Quite obviously, the available information were incomplete and inadequate. Accordingly,
expert judgement and conjectures had to be used in interpreting these information. Be that as
it may, the methane emission from six (6) major urban areas of Bangladesh (the capital city
of Dhaka, port cities Chittagong and Khulna and three other district towns - Rajshahi, Sylhet
and Mymensingh) from land fills has been estimated at about 73.6 Gg per year.

Emissions from Agriculture, Livestock and Waste Water

This section deals with methane emission from various non-energy sources such as flooded
rice fields, enteric fermentation in livestock, manure management and anaerobic waste water
treatment in municipalities. The general methodology and approach and the default values
provided in the given workbooks are modified as deemed necessary to better represent
country specific situations. For example, for a variety of reasons, the methane flux in
Bangladesh rice cultivation is expected to be significantly lower than in other countries. The
rationale for using such country specific values for the calculations are given in details in the
relevant final report.

Emission from rice fields

There is a high degree of uncertainty in the global flux measurements in case of methane,
particularly from rice fields. Experiments have shown that the Methane flux from flooded
rice fields varies with soil type, temperature, redox potential, and acidity/alkalinity of the
soil; the type, timing, application method and amount of fertiliser applied; water management
technique; and cultivar type (Schutz et al.,1990; Matthews et al., 1991). A range (i.e., 0.19 -
0.69 gCH4fm2/day) for daily emission fluxes, based on the field experiments (Schutz et al.,
1989), has been recommended as default values by the OECD report (OECD, 1991) for
estimating national CH4 emissions from flooded rice fields. This range, however, has been
scaled down on the basis of several criteria applicable to Bangladesh situation. The modified
fluxes may be found in the Final Report of the Emission Study.

In estimating methane emission from flooded rice fields the harvested area for each of the
major rice varieties are estimated in the first step. This is done by subtracting the area under
non-irrigated uplands from the gross harvested area for each of the varieties. Depending on
the local agricultural practice and water regime management during rice cultivation, the
length of continuously and intermittently flooded days are derived from existing database of
Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council.

Emission factors are derived by scaling down the range 0.19 to 0.69 gim2/day (Schutz et ai,
1989) to suit to local conditions and practices in the country. However, this has been done on
the basis of expert judgement and needs to be verified through experiments in future.
The lower bound estimates show that Bangladesh emits about 257 Gg of CH4 from flooded
rice fields. The upper bound estimate is 622 Gg of CH4. Considering the median values, it is
estimated that rice cultivation emits about 468 Gg of methane gas per year. HYV Boro rice
(which is dependent on irrigation) contributes about 42% to the methane emission from rice
fields followed by HYV transplanted Aman (about 31 %).

Emission from livestock

Bangladesh has one of the highest densities of livestock population per unit of land in the
world. But the country does not have any pastoral land dedicated only to grazing. Animals
feed themselves by scavenging in and around the cultivated lands and homesteads. Partly,
they are also fed with rice straws and husks. On the whole there is a feed shortage. This is
reflected in the poor health condition of the animals. Due to lack of adequate nutrition, the
animals are under-weight. The average body weight of cattle is only 200-250 Kg for local
breeds and 300-450 Kg for improved breeds. These figures are quite low compared to those
elsewhere. As expected, the low body-weights result in low level of CH4 emission by enteric
fermentation from
livestock sector in Bangladesh. It is estimated that about 446.8 Gg of methane is emitted
from enteric fermentation of livestock, 67.5% of which is contributed by non-dairy cattle.

For estimation of methane emission due to manure management, use has been made O.f the
default methane emission values by livestock types, as presented in the GHG Emission
Inventory Workbook (ICF Inc., 1995). It is estimated that 73.07 Gg of methane is emitted
from manure management  a large fraction of which comes from non-dairy cattle.

Emission from waste water treatment

Traditionally waste water from households, be it in the rural or in the urban areas, is
ultimately discharged in the open space or in the water bodies. There is only one exception to
this traditional practice in the capital city Dhaka. There is a waste water treatment plant
adjacent to
Dhaka which treats waste water from municipal sources, but the treatment is not anaerobic.
Therefore, waste water from domestic sources in Bangladesh do not emit any significant
amount of methane gas.

Industries also discharge huge quantities of waste water into surface water systems. In most
cases such waste water is not treated before being discharged. Only recently a few of these
industries have taken measures to treat the waste water before releasing it to the nearby
surface water system. But there is no systematic database regarding the actual amount of
industrial waste water being treated anaerobically. Therefore, methane emission from
industrial waste water could not be estimated.

Emissions from Land Use Change and Open Bio-mass Burning

Land use change is often considered to be a major source of GHGs, particularly of CO2, in
developing countries. Usually, when forest land is cleared for agricultural or other purposes
by felling trees, a part of the carbon locked in them is released as parts of the trees are used
as fuel wood, the land clearing takes place through slash and burning and because the soil is
disturbed which also release the carbon locked therein. On the other hand if the area under
forest or tree cover increases there is likely to be a net sink effect.

Forest area characteristics

The forest area includes officially classified and unclassified state forest land, homestead
forest land in rural areas, tea and rubber gardens etc. The private forest areas are tree covered
while much of the state forest land is barren of tree vegetation. Still, there are 835,000 ha of
state forest land having reasonable vegetation; over in the better quality natural forest areas
and bamboo areas and plantations, excluding the parks and sanctuaries. This good quality
 forest area accounts for 5.8% of the total land in Bangladesh. Apart from the different kinds
of forest areas, there are other areas in the country where afforestation has taken place in
COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL
recent years, especially along the newly built embankments and road sides.

(ii) support for adaptation,

Non-CO2 (iii) support
emissions from for mitigation,
Bio-mass and (iv) capacity development, which are translated
Burning
18
into a proposed action plan .
In rural Bangladesh a portion of the above ground bio-mass is left in the fields after each
harvest.
IFAD'sACountry
fraction of the Opportunities
Strategic bio- mass is Paper
mulched during the
also neglects fieldchange
climate preparation
as a riskfor the but
factor, next crop
providesand
an in some areas
interesting farmerson
perspective amass the driedtobio-mass
vulnerability to make
natural hazards anda small heap and
development deliberately
strategies in
set them
Bangladesh. The afire.
paper This
finds open air burningbetween
a disconnection results "micro
into emission
success"ofand
gases suchstagnation".
"macro as CO2, CO, It CH4,
suggestsN20 and NOx.
that poverty reduction strategies in Bangladesh have been very successful in increasing resilience,
demonstrated by impressive gains in the areas of food production, population control, health education, and
in building
Sinceup the
theinstitutional
major cropcapacities of the poor.
in Bangladesh The way
is rice, in whichfor
estimation Bangladesh
emissionwas of able to manage
non-CO2 gases was
the devastating
done in terms of field burning of paddy-straw only. The amount of CO2 releasedown
1998 floods is another example of this resilience, which is characterized by people's was not
efforts as well as government
estimated assuminginitiatives in safety
that it would be net provisioning
balanced and rural
by locking ofinfrastructure development.
carbon by growing plants during
However, thethenext
paper contrastsseason.
cropping this success
It isfrom
found thethat
perspective of the "economics
about 695.4 Gg carbonofand resilience"
about 9.7 withGg
thenitrogen is
failure of the "economics of graduation". In other words
being released annually from field burning of bio-mass sources. while the loss of life and livelihoods from
disasters have been considerably reduced, there remains a lack of real opportunities for the poor to embark
on a pathAlso,of as
progressive
discussedeconomic upliftment.
earlier, the The lack
major source of of such
rural long-term
energy opportunities
in Bangladesh for social
is the bio-mass
upliftment
source which provides rice straws, husks, dung, twigs and leaves, baggage, jute sticks,thefuel-
is also likely to limit improvement in coping or adaptive capacity, and thereby constrain
success wood
of efforts
etc.toItreduce vulnerability
is estimated that totraditional
climate change.
bio-mass fuel combustion in open air releases about
189.5 Gg methane gas, 2339.9 Gg of carbon monoxide gas, 2.4 Gg of N20 and 85.9 Gg of
Another
NOx gas. perspective on climate change risks in Bangladesh is provided in a BMZ study on
climate change and conflict (Brauch, 2002). Its case study on Bangladesh showed that this country has
already been a primary victim of extreme weather events (cyclones, floods and droughts) that forced
Summary of Total Emissions
people to migrate. The increase in environmental stress due to climate change may further raise the conflict
potential and might eventually lead to international tensions and regional instability: "In Bangladesh the
Collecting all the results mentioned so far, one may arrive at an aggregate emission figure as
struggle for survival against the impacts of global environmental change has been real for decades.
shown in Table-5. The estimates indicate that on the basis of global warming potentials,
Without more intensive efforts to address the causes at their roots a major human catastrophe may be
more than one-half is due to methane while about 30% is contributed by CO2 from fossil fuel
possible that will not only affect the neighboring states (India, Myanmar) but the OECD countries as
burning.
well." No attention to these trans-boundary risks however was reflected in any of the donor strategies.

Sources of GHG emission Quantity of GHG Global warming potential

emitted(Gg) (100 years time horizon)
Combustion of fossil fuel 13,443 as CO2 13,443
Energy production 79.7 as CH4 1,953
Flooded rice fields 468 as CH4 11,513
Livestock (enteric
fermentation & manure 520 as CH4 12,792
management)
4.7 as CH4 116
Burning of Agriculture 97.3 as CH4
residues 0.11 as N2O 3
3.84 as NOx
Forest (sink and source) No net emission
189.5 as CH4 4,662
2,340 as CO
Biomass burning
2.4 as N2O 59
86 as NOx
All Sources 44,541
18
Source: Global climate Change: Bangladesh Episode, DOE, MoEF, GOB.
This initiative however is too recent at the time of writing this report to assess its impact on in-country
Source : Global Climate Change : Bangladesh Episode, 1997, DOE, MoEF-GOB.
development co-operation policies of the EU.

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 COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL

Table 8. Climate change implications on select development projects in Bangladesh

Fr e s h w a te r

Fr e s h w a te r
Drai nage c ongest i on

Drai nage c ongest i on

A g ri c u l t ure

P ubl i c heal t h
Coas t a l re s ourc e s

av ai l abi l i t y
M o rphol ogi c dy na m i cs

Fres h wat e r re s ourc e s

av ai l abi l i t y

Eco s y s t e m s/b i o d i ve r s i t y
M o rphol ogi c dy na m i cs
Small Scale Water Resources Development Sector Project (SSWRDSP)
Command-area Development Project (CADP)
Khulna-Jessore Deainage Rehabilitation Project (KDRP)
Sundarbans Biodiversity Project (SBCP)
Coastal Greenbelt Project (CGP)
Forestry Sector Project (FSP)
Agricultural Research Management Project (ARMP)
Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program (CZDP)
Forestry Resources Management Project (FRMP)
Fourth Fisheries Project (FFP)
1 Gorai River Restoration Project
Third Inland Water Transport Project
River Bank Protection Project (RBPP)
Water Sector Improvement Project (WSIP)
Sustainable Environment Management Program **
Third Water Supply and Sanitation Project **
National Water Management Plan (NWMP)

Key: Characteristics of project:
Target sector in project
Target issue in Project: activities
planned
Impact of climate change, in target sector of project. Depending on proposed activities in
project, incorporation of adaptations can be relatively easy or difficult. This is indicated as
follows:
Impact on target sector affecting success of project. No activities planned on issue.
Adaptation possible only as additional activities.
Impact on target issue. No adaptations considered. However, as a target issue of project,
adaptation can be part of activities, and project can help reduce vulnerability to climate
change.
Vulnerability to CC made explicit, adaptations is part of activities.

The project is vulnerable to climate change, however the proposed activities allow for
adaptation. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability exist.
Proposed activities make project very promising to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Source: World Bank 2000

5.3 Attention to climate risks in selected development programs and projects

The World Bank report Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000)
includes a review of sixteen development activities (mainly by the ADB and the World Bank, and also by
the Netherlands and DFID) in the light of adaptation to climate change. This review considered two
aspects: vulnerability of the projects themselves, as well as opportunities to reduce Bangladesh's
vulnerability in a broader sense. The report's main finding was that most of the activities reviewed do not
consider climate change impacts or adaptation to such impacts (see Table 8).

The current review, three years later, comes to a more nuanced conclusion. On the one hand it is
19
true that little explicit attention is paid to climate change risks in most project documents , even for
19
Note that this was a desk review; it could be that attention is not reflected in the documents, but still
incorporated in the process of technical planning.

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 COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL

projects in sectors that are highly vulnerable, such as water management or coastal biodiversity (see
Appendix B for an analysis of specific projects). However, at the same time - as discussed in greater detail
in Sections 7 and 8 - many projects contribute directly or indirectly to a reduction in vulnerability, and
most of them do take into account the natural hazards affecting Bangladesh. Only a few, such as the
GEF/UNDP Coastal and Wetland Biodiversity Management at Cox's Bazar and Hakaluki Haor (2000-
2007), note the potential effect of sea level rise. UNDP's Comprehensive Disaster Management Program
(CDMP) lists climate change as a serious component of Bangladesh's vulnerability to natural hazards, to
be integrated in the program's disaster risk reduction strategies. It is difficult to gauge the extent to which
climate change considerations would have affected the design of the other projects.

At the same time, Huq (2002) and Rahman and Alam (2003) note that several ongoing
development projects, such as the World Bank's coastal zone management project, and the GEF/ADB
Biodiversity Conservation in the Sunderbans Reserve forest project, planned to incorporate considerations
from the World Bank climate change study. However such developments, occurring during the project
lifetime, are not reflected in the initial project documents.

One of the projects that was reviewed, the GEF/World Bank/DFID Aquatic Biodiversity Project,
highlights the negative impacts of flood protection measures on inland open-water fisheries and
biodiversity. Such findings re-emphasize the need to adopt cross-sectoral and comprehensive approaches to
hazard risk management and sustainable development, particularly in the face of the increasing risks due to
climate change.

6. Attention to climate concerns in national planning

Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has embarked upon a series of development plans,
the latest being the Fifth Five Year Plan (FiFYP) that lays out development objectives and investments ─
both in public as well as private sectors ─ for the Plan period 1997-2002 (MOP, 1997). The major
development objectives set out by the FiFYP include sustained economic growth, equity, poverty
alleviation, human capability development, and sound environmental management. Bangladesh is also a
signatory to a number of multilateral environmental agreements, and has a number of national level
environmental and sectoral plans that intersect with responses that might be required to manage climate
variability and long term climate change.

6.1 Climate policies and national communications to international environmental agreements

Although Bangladesh is significantly impacted by current climate variability, and is among the
countries most vulnerable to climate change, there is no national policy in place yet to comprehensively
address such risks. The need for a National Policy on Climate Change has been expressed time and again
by the civil society of the country since early 1990s. In a recently held National Dialogue on Water and
Climate Change, the formulation of a Climate Change Policy for the country was highly recommended.
Work is currently underway to develop the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) for Bangladesh,
although it is too early to assess whether the NAPA will lead to a comprehensive national policy that is
endorsed and implemented by the government.

Bangladesh is a party to various international environmental conventions, including the

UNFCCC, UNCCD, UNCBD and the RAMSAR Convention on Wetlands. Bangladesh submitted its first
National Communications to the UNFCCC in late 2002. No copy was yet available for review. Bangladesh
has also submitted two reports (in 2001 and 2002) to the UNCCD which do not discuss climate change.
With regard to UNCBD, Bangladesh has not yet submitted a national biodiversity strategy and action plan
(NBSAP). A report on alien species does not touch upon climate related issues. Bangladesh has also
produced a National Planning Tool for the implementation of the Ramsar Convention on wetlands that

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COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL

 .
draws linkages between Ramsar and biodiversity issues, but not with climate change concerns in the
context of coastal wetlands. Similarly, the country's documentation for the World Summit on Sustainable
Development only discusses climate change as a stand-alone air quality issue, rather than a cross-cutting
concern affecting many aspects of sustainable development.