FEBRUARY/MARCH 2011 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

Inside This Issue Strouse Realty Group

American Dream Realty
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 Scotts Valley, CA 95066
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01228878
> ANNUAL TABLES ................................. 4

The Real Estate Report

local market trends SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 10
Median Price: $ 450,000 $ 522,500 $ 500,000
Av erage Price: $ 516,371 $ 591,497 $ 578,834
Units Sold: 91 132 90
Home Prices Start Year off Declining Inv entory : 570 573 470
Sale/List Price Ratio: 96.3% 96.6% 98.8%
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes Year-over-year, home inventory was up for the Day s on Market: 81 81 71
in Santa Cruz County was down 10% year-over- eighth month in a row: 21.3%. Day s of Inv entory 188 130 157
year, while the average price dropped 10.8%.
The sales price to list price ratio slipped again last
For complete information on a particular neighbor-
HOME SALES… month, down 0.3 of a point to 96.3%.
hood or property, call.
rose year-over-year, for the first since May. The 91 Pending sales were off for the sixth month in a row:
homes sold represent a 1.1% increase from last 6.6%.
January.
IN THE CONDO MARKET…
SALES MOMENTUM… the median price was up from December, but off
stabilized last month at –13%. 2.5% compared to last January. The average price
Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12- was also up from December, but off 1.7% year-
month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By over-year.
comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to Condos sales fell 50% from December, and were
last year’s, we get a percentage showing market down 4.% year-over-year. This is the third month in
momentum. a row condo sales have been lower than the year
PENDING MOMENTUM… before.
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has Pending sales were down for the fifth month in a
also been trending downward. Last month the num- row year-over-year: 26.2%.
ber was +6%, a decline from +8% the month be-
fore. Inventory, on the other hand, increased for the
eighth month in a row: up 30.6% year-over-year.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
MORE STATISTICS… neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Momentum

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASOND1
-20.0%
6 7 8 9 0 1
-40.0%

-60.0%
Sales Pending Median © 2010 rereport.com

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481

 The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Feb. 4 2011 -- HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our sonal outlays increased by 0.7%, driving down the
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- savings rate a little to 5.3%. Over the past year, in-
10-10 found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed- comes have risen by 3.8% while outgo climbed by
07-10 rate mortgages increased by another five basis 4.1%, all without most consumers taking on new
04-10 points, holding now at an average 5.17%. FHA- debt.
01-10 backed 30-year FRMs, a considerable and crucial
10-09 An improving economy is making investors more
part of the first-time homebuying market, moved up
07-09 interested in riskier investments with greater potential
by two more basis points (.02%) to finish the week at
04-09 (i.e. the stock market) at the expense of safe-haven
01-09 4.79%. Borrowers looking for an alternative to the
ones. As such, stock prices are rising and bond
10-08 benchmark 30-year FRM might consider a 5/1 Hybrid
yields are following, and mortgage rates follow bond
07-08 ARM, which is available at an relatively inexpensive
yields to a greater or lesser degree.
04-08 3.83% for the first five years, up three basis points
01-08 from last week. Market conditions make it unsurprising to see a de-
10-07 cline in construction spending. The 2.5% decline in
07-07 We have been seeing an accumulation of improving
outlays for December was across the board, driven
04-07 economic news, some of which suggests that the
01-07 down by a 4.1% decline in residential outlays, a 0.5%
economic gears are starting to become more fully
10-06 slip in commercial spending and a 2.8% did in public
engaged, with a more robust recovery set to bloom
07-06 works projects.
04-06
before too much more time has passed.
01-06 Mortgage rates are expected to move a little higher,
Personal incomes rose by 0.4% in December. Wages
10-05 probably a handful of basis points, perhaps as much
increased by 0.3%, while "transfer payments" in the
07-05 as ten.
04-05 form of government supports and such provided the
01-05 rest of the gain. With the change to Social Security
withholding putting a few more dollars in each pay-
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
check, some additional spending should occur, pro-
vided rising gasoline prices don't eat all of it up. Per-

The chart above shows the National

monthly average for 30-year fixed
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com. The average includes mort-
gages of all sizes, including conforming, Santa Cruz County Homes - Prices & Sales
"expanded conforming," and jumbo. (3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
$1,000 200

Single-family Home Sales

Median & Average Prices

$900 180
$800 160
$700 140
120
$600
100
$500
80
$400 60
$300 40
$200 20
$100 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND 1
7 8 9 0 1

Santa Cruz County - January 2011

Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. County $ 450,000 $ 516,371 91 240 570 188 96.3% -10.0% -10.8% 1.1% -6.6% 21.3%
Strouse Realty Group Aptos $ 560,000 $ 491,633 3 9 31 310 98.9% -5.5% -24.4% -50.0% 0.0% -11.4%
American Dream Realty Capitola $ 522,500 $ 522,500 2 3 24 360 97.4% -5.0% -5.3% -33.3% 0.0% 71.4%
5522 Scotts Valley Dr. Rio del Mar $ 689,685 $ 1,005,440 6 14 39 195 92.0% -7.4% 37.5% 20.0% -12.5% -17.0%
Scotts Valley, CA 95066 Seacliff $ 634,000 $ 634,000 1 2 15 450 97.6% -14.3% -44.1% -66.7% -75.0% -11.8%
(831) 338-6481 San Lorenzo Vly $ 307,900 $ 337,520 15 37 82 164 95.9% -5.3% 1.7% -21.1% -28.8% 36.7%
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com Soquel $ 590,000 $ 546,600 5 12 28 168 96.9% -17.8% -23.8% 150.0% 9.1% -3.4%
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com Scotts Valley $ 602,500 $ 651,182 11 26 58 158 95.2% -10.4% -28.6% 10.0% 36.8% 28.9%
DRE #01228878 Santa Cruz $ 542,633 $ 603,912 16 45 137 257 94.4% -12.1% -8.7% 0.0% -16.7% 59.3%
East County $ 335,500 $ 423,869 16 26 65 122 97.4% 8.2% -29.5% 60.0% -3.7% 18.2%
West County $ 718,500 $ 718,500 2 2 15 225 99.4% -20.7% -20.7% 100.0% -50.0% 15.4%
Page 2 Watsonv ille $ 289,000 $ 288,990 10 45 36 108 100.0% 4.1% -0.6% -16.7% 15.4% 100.0%
 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change Strouse Realty Group
40.0% American Dream Realty
30.0% 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
20.0% Scotts Valley, CA 95066
10.0% (831) 338-6481
0.0% Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-10.0% 0 F M A M J J A SON D 0 F M AM J J A S ON D 0 F M AM J J A SON D 1 F M A M J J A SON D 1 http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-20.0% 7 8 9 0 1 DRE #01228878
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc- In December, cancellations outweighed the other alter-
ess, in Santa Cruz County declined 25.7% in December natives. There were 52 cancellations, an increase of
from the year before. The 107 notices filed in December 8.3% from last December. That’s a good sign.
were the lowest number filed in the past thirteen
Properties going back-to-bank declined 28%, another
months.
positive sign, while sales to third parties went from
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc- eleven in November to eight in December, but were up
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before from the sole sale in December 2009.
sale, rose 3.5% from November but were down 9.2%
The good news is that the total number of homes that
year-over-year,.
have had a notice of default filed declined by 18.5% in
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are December compared to December 2009.
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
But, the total number of homes scheduled for sale in-
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
creased by 1%.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone- Unfortunately, the number of homes owned by the bank
ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the rose 32.2%.
bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.

Table Definitions
_______________

Santa Cruz County Condos- Prices & Sales Median Price

(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50%were lower.
$700 45
Median & Average Prices

40
$600 Average Price
35
Add all prices and divide by the
Condo Sales

$500 30 number of sales.

25
$400
20 SP/LP
$300 15 Sales price to list price ratio or the
10 price paid for the property divided by
$200 the asking price.
5
$100 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 DOI
7 8 9 0 1 Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
Santa Cruz County - January 2011 of sales.
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices Pend
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven Property under contract to sell that
County $ 304,250 $ 338,618 20 48 192 288 95.3% -2.5% -1.7% -4.8% -26.2% 30.6% hasn’t closed escrow.
Aptos $ 452,500 $ 452,500 2 4 5 75 97.6% 43.7% 43.7% 100.0% 100.0% 25.0%
Capitola $ 245,000 $ 245,000 1 3 18 540 100.0% -69.4% -69.4% 0.0% -70.0% 50.0% Inven
Rio del Mar $ - $ - 0 0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Number of properties actively for
Scotts Valley $ 291,000 $ 302,500 4 4 8 60 97.1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a sale as of the last day of the month.
Santa Cruz $ 230,688 $ 233,246 3 17 52 520 92.3% -41.6% -40.7% -25.0% -19.0% 0.0%
Watsonv ille $ 194,000 $ 194,000 2 9 21 315 101.0% 7.8% 1.4% -71.4% -47.1% 40.0% Page 3
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
Santa Cruz County

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

American Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
(831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Go online to see the full report

with the city by city breakdown:

http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Price/Listing Price Ratio
101%

100%

99%

98%

97%

96%

95%
0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 1 FMAMJ J A SOND 1
7 8 9 0 1
© 2010 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County Homes - Sales, Pending & Days of Inventory

(3-month moving average)
400 500
Peak of buyers Market
350 450
Days of Inventory

400
Sales & Pending

300
350
250 300
200 250
150 200
150
100
100
50 50
0 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND 1
7 8 9 0 1

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Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.