Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Lipid Modulating Agents

Publication Date: August 2007

Table of Contents

Disease Etiology................................................................... 6
Primary Dyslipidemia ...................................................... 6
Secondary Dyslipidemia .................................................. 6
Epidemiology & Patient Population Estimates........................... 7
Theoretical Patient Population.......................................... 7
Addressable Patient Population ........................................ 7
Treated Patient Population .............................................. 8
Drivers of Growth ..................................................... 8
Availability of Generics......................................... 8
Access for Elderly................................................ 8
Public Awareness ................................................ 8
New Guidelines................................................... 8
Dyslipidemia Patient Population Model .............................. 9
U.S. Statins Market Model, 2004-2013 .................................. 10
Disease & Market Definitions ......................................... 10
Forecasting Methodology............................................... 10
Market Segmentation.................................................... 10
Market Revenue Forecasts............................................. 11
AVOS Physician Panel Results .............................................. 15
Physician Treatment Patterns......................................... 15
Patient Compliance ....................................................... 16
Drivers of Non-Compliance ...................................... 16
Asymptomatic Prevention .................................. 16
Cost ................................................................ 16
Natural Treatment ............................................ 16
Side Effects...................................................... 16
Lack of Education ............................................. 16
Physician Product Selection Criteria ................................ 17
Insurance Coverage ................................................ 17
Sample Availability.................................................. 17
Efficacy ................................................................. 17

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 Marketing Efforts .................................................... 17
Physician Product Ratings & Forecasts of Future Market
Trends ........................................................................ 18
Market Overview ................................................................ 20
Leading Products.......................................................... 20
Market History ............................................................. 20
Current Market Environment.......................................... 21
Future OTC Switch Unlikely ........................................... 22
Product Profiles
Lipitor ......................................................................... 23
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 23
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 24
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 24
Zetia/Vytorin................................................................ 25
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 25
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 26
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 26
Product History ...................................................... 27
Crestor........................................................................ 28
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 28
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 29
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 29
Crestor Safety Controversy ...................................... 30
Zocor .......................................................................... 31
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 31
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 32
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 32
Pravachol .................................................................... 33
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 33
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 33
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 34
Lescol/Lescol XL ........................................................... 35
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 35
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 35
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 35
Tricor.......................................................................... 36
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 37

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 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 37
Product History ...................................................... 37
Patent Challenges and Reform ................................. 37
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 37
Niaspan/Advicor ........................................................... 38
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 38
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 39
Product History ...................................................... 39
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 39
Caduet ........................................................................ 40
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 40
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 41
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 41
Atorvastatin ................................................................. 42
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 42
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 43
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 43
MK-0524A/MK-0524B .................................................... 44
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 44
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 45
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 45
Simcor ........................................................................ 46
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 46
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 46
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 47
ABT-335/Crestor + ABT-335 .......................................... 48
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 48
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 49
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 49
TAK-475...................................................................... 50
U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 50
Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 51
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 51
Drugs in Development ........................................................ 52
R&D Overview ............................................................. 52
ACAT Inhibitors ...................................................... 52
Squalene Synthase Inhibitors ................................... 52

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 PPAR Agonists........................................................ 52
CETP Inhibitors ...................................................... 52
Assessment of R&D Success Rates ................................. 52
Products in the Pipeline................................................. 53
Phase III (11 Agents).............................................. 53
Phase II (11 Agents)............................................... 54

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