Weekly Report

14th Feb - 19th Feb 2011

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET

>>“Spices rises on extended buying ”

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 J E E R A (Jan)
JEERA RISES ON WEAK ARRIVALS
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Jeera futures extended the bullish trend on Ÿ Low arrivals
follow through buying last week. Futures started the Ÿ Active buying Script Levels
week on higher note on active buying interest.
R3 19093
However prices took decent correction during the
week due to increased fresh crop arrivals at spot
R2 17585
market. Nonetheless overall bullish sentiments R1 17012
pushed the prices and futures ended on positive MARKET OVERVIEW PP 16077
note. The Jeera futures are projected to continue the Last week Jeera did our target of 15600 S1 15504
uptrend on active buying next week. Strong buying above the level of 15250 and even closed S2 14569
interest at futures might support the prices. above it. Last week Jeera remained bullish S3 13061
However, prices are likely to take corrections on throughout the week and was not
profit booking at higher levels during the next week. sustaining at lower levels. For the next
Fresh crop arrivals are expected to start in full swing week Jeera has resistance at 16650 and
by 1st week of March only. Daily arrivals at spot support at 16150.
market of Unjha were around 3500 bags old crop
and 500-600 bags of new crop (Each bag= 55Kg.).
As per trade sources, till the fresh arrivals starts in full
swing demand for old crop amid lower stocks might
STRATEGY
support the prices. However, higher production
estimates of around 30-32 lakh bags against 28-30 Jeera is in an upward consolidation phase
Lakh bags might limit the sharp gains. According to and one should use the strategy of buy on
the State Farm Department, Gujarat, Jeera acreage lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera
as on January 10 stood at 2,44,600 hectares, sustains above the level of 16650 then we
marginally higher than 2,42,700 hectares last year. can expect the level of 17000, and if it
According to derivative analysis, over a period of sustains below 16150 then we can see the
time prices and volumes are rising while open level of 15950.
interest is declining. This indicates market has a lot
of traders initiating from both sides but larger
traders may be liquidating into the higher prices.
The market may be vulnerable to large price swings
as shorter time frame traders attempt to trade from
both sides of the market but liquidating before end
of- day.

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 G U A R S E E D (Jan)
GUARSEED TRADES UP ON EXTENDED BUYING !
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
After declining significantly for 2 days, Guar seed Ÿ Improved buying
spot as well as futures rebounded last week and Ÿ Weak arrivals Script Levels
settled higher by 3.34% and 3.59% respectively
owing to improved buying at lower levels amidst R3 3344
declining arrivals. Guar prices are also influenced by R2 3139
the crude oil prices as Guar gum is used in oil well R1 3011
drilling. After falling continuously in the past few MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2896
days, Crude oil prices recovered on Wednesday
which further supported Guar prices to remain firm. Last week Guarseed did our target of 2800 S1 2787
Despite of bumper crop in the current season, Guar below the level of 2860 but was not able S2 2672
prices are trading at its all time high due to rising to sustain at lower levels and we saw good S3 2448
oilfield demand that has pushed prices 17.32% buying coming at lower levels. For the next
higher since the beginning of the year. Arrivals on week Guarseed has resistance at 2970 and
Wednesday day stood at 40000 bags as compared support at 2770.
to 45,000 bags on Tuesday. More than 80% of the
crop has arrived so far in the current season. Thus
arrivals have declined significantly with harvest
nearing its end. The harvesting season of Guarseed
generally ends by December. However, this year, due
to the bumper crop, harvesting has extended well STRATEGY
into February too. According to the Rajasthan farm For next week in Guar seed traders should
Department, Guar seed output in the current season go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
is estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The forecasted Guar seed sustains above the level of 2970
output this year is much higher than the 4.5 lakh
we can see the level of 3030, and below
tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10 lakh bags in 2008-
2770 it can touch the level of 2715.
09. India is the largest Guar producing country in the
world contributing 80% in total supplies followed
by Pakistan with 10% share in world production.
Guar futures may remain firm in the intraday due to
improved demand at lower price levels. In the short
term (2 - 3 weeks), we expect Guar prices to recover
on export demand and trade in the range of Rs.
2720 and Rs. 3050 per qtl. In the medium term (2
months), prices would be dependent on the
overseas demand scenario.

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 S O YA B E A N ( F e b )
SOYBEAN ENDS LOWER ON PROFIT BOOKING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
NCDEX March Soybean futures closed slightly lower Ÿ Profit booking
on account of profit taking in tandem with weak Ÿ Weak overseas market Script Levels
overseas market. Forecasts of record high Soybean R3 2660
production in Brazil are also adding bearish market R2 2601
sentiments globally. Daily arrivals of soybean in R1 2563
Madhya Pradesh were at 80,000 bags last week. MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2542
UDDA's Monthly Supply & Demand Report: The Last week Soybean was in a tight S1 2504
USDA Supply/demand report was considered consolidation and was facing stiff S2 2483
neutral to Soybeans as US ending stocks were resistance around 2600 levels and was not S3 2424
pegged at 140 million bushels which was sustaining at higher levels. For the next
unchanged from last month. World ending stocks
week Soybean has resistance at 2600 and
support at 2500.
were pegged at 58.21 million tonnes from 58.28
million last month and compared with 60.17 million
tonnes last year. Argentina production was revised
lower by 1 million tonnes to 49.5 million tonnes but
Brazil production was revised higher by 1 million to STRATEGY
68.5 million tonnes. Brazil officials pegged the
Soybean is moving in an upward channel
soybean crop at a record 70.1 million tonnes from on charts and one should look for buying
68.55 million as their January forecast. Refined opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean
Soybean oil prices are expected to trade slightly sustains above the level of 2600 we can see
higher on global shortage of edible oils. the level of 2650, and on the downside if it
sustains below the level of 2500 we can
see Soybean at 2455 level.

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 C H A N A (Jan)
CHANA FALLS ON PROFIT BOOKING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Chana futures price declined last week due to Ÿ Increased arrivals
the profit booking at the higher price levels. The Ÿ Profit booking Script Levels
prices initially opened slightly positive but did not R3 2884
survive the trend. The increasing arrivals across
R2 2804
south India spot markets and the unchanged
R1 2769
production estimates exerted pressure on the
MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2724
market. The increase in prices while the volume
and the open interest are decreasing in the last Last week Chana was bullish for the whole S1 2689
week indicates that market might remain bearish week and we saw good buying coming at S2 2644
for the week. The basis of Chana which has lower levels and it even closed near to its S3 2564
resumed the increasing note is anticipated to weekly high. For the next week Chana has
continue the same trend further. Chana futures resistance at 2815 and support at 2640.
are expected to remain bearish for the next week
as the profit booking is expected to continue.
The absence of the buyers at the futures is likely
to keep the market down side for the next week.
The decreasing demand across the spot markets
and the increasing arrivals might exert pressure STRATEGY
on the spot prices as well as the futures. Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and
According to the second advance estimates the one should go for buying at lower levels
production of Chana is likely to remain around strategy in it. For the coming week if
7.37 million tons which is merely 1% less than Chana sustains above 2815 level we can
the last year production. The arrivals have gained see it at 2855 and below 2640 we can
momentum across the spot markets of Chana in expect the level of 2600.
Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
The traders are of the opinion that the stock
limits might be reduced across Andhra Pradesh
and Maharashtra. The government is concerned
about the food inflation levels which might
further reduce the stock limits across Madhya
Pradesh and also Rajasthan.

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest *
(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15231 15290 16650 15142 16439 72537 1208 16809 96,724.88

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 23094 23100 25490 23100 24940 60259 1846 8870 107,865.44
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 9816 9800 9858 9230 9342 17605 -474 7270 15,292.94
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2986 2995 3005 2781 2902 1559060 -84 194190 413,810.92
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8508 8577 8645 7876 8300 159680 -208 32160 122,658.91

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2739 2750 2760 2680 2734 538180 -5 95190 131,384.87
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2559 2562 2580 2521 2525 423490 -34 257480 97,074.76

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 673.7 673.05 674.9 662.4 664.5 683310 -9.2 120180 425,202.11

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 3036 3037 3073 2994 3047 406120 11 84720 111,295.56

COCUDAKL NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1220 1229 1325 1216 1284 752030 -39 106480 88,997.86
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Gur RS/40KGS 631 639.4 673 632.5 665.3 112845 34.3 11710 6,527.56
POTATO NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 631 639.4 673 632.5 665.3 112845 34.3 21945 7,019.04

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1030 1035 1253.3 1025.1 1242.2 32395 212.2 5467 63,960.94
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1306.6 1309 1312.6 1300.2 1300.2 5130 -6.4 8120 620.48
MENTHA OIL MCX 28-FEB-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1048 1049.9 1101 1043.4 1066.6 22058 18.6 3479 84800.13
CARDAMOM MCX 15- MAR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1365.2 1375 1402 1241.5 1351 10915 -14.2 1478 13936.11

* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 16439 7.93

NCDEX PEPPER 24940 7.99
NCDEX TURMERIC 9342 -4.83
NCDEX GUARSEED 2902 -2.81
NCDEX GUARGUM 8300 -2.44
NCDEX CHANA 2734 -0.18
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2525 -1.33
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 664.5 -1.37
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 3047 0.36
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1284 5.25
NCDEX GUR 881.5 -4.24
NCDEX POTATO 665.3 5.44
NCDEX KAPAS 1242.2 20.60
NCDEX WHEAT 1300.2 -0.49
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1066.6 1.77
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1351 -1.04

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
KAPAS 29-APR-11 1242.2 20.60 TURMERIC 20-APR-11 9342 -4.83
PEPPER 18-MAR-11 24940 7.99 CARDAMOM 18-MAR-11 881.5 -4.24
JEERA 18-MAR-11 16439 7.93 GUR 18-MAR-11 2902 -2.81

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Jeera (Mar) 19093.00 17585.00 17012.00 16077.00 15504.00 14569.00 13061.00
Pepper (Mar) 29290.00 26900.00 25920.00 24510.00 23530.00 22120.00 19730.00
Turmeric (Apr) 10732.67 10104.67 9723.33 9476.67 9095.33 8848.67 8220.67
Guarseed (Mar) 3344.00 3120.00 3011.00 2896.00 2787.00 2672.00 2448.00
Guarsgum (Mar) 9811.67 9042.67 8671.33 8273.67 7902.33 7504.67 6735.67
Chana (Mar) 2884.67 2804.67 2769.33 2724.67 2689.33 2644.67 2564.67
Soybean (Mar) 2660.00 2601.00 2563.00 2542.00 2504.00 2483.00 2424.00
Refined Soya Oil (Mar) 692.27 679.77 672.13 667.27 659.63 654.77 642.27
Mustard (Apr) 3196.00 3117.00 3082.00 3038.00 3003.00 2959.00 2880.00
Cottonseed Oil Cake (Mar) 1493.00 1384.00 1334.00 1275.00 1225.00 1166.00 1057.00
Gur (Mar) 992.67 943.17 912.33 893.67 862.83 844.17 794.67
Potato (Mar) 737.93 697.43 681.37 656.93 640.87 616.43 575.93
Kapas (Apr) 1629.93 1401.73 1321.97 1173.53 1093.77 945.33 717.13
Mentha Oil (Feb) 1185.53 1127.93 1097.27 1070.33 1039.67 1012.73 955.13
Cardamom (Mar) 1652.50 1492.00 1421.50 1331.50 1261.00 1171.00 1010.50

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