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Naufal Sanaullah Mubarak steps down while Canadian trade figures blow past
naufalsanaullah@gmail.com
www.shadowcapitalism.com
estimates and US consumer confidence helps S&P rally to
new highs
Good day for risk to end the week on Friday, as Mubarak’s resignation helped alleviate fears of
geopolitical contagion in the Middle East. A small beat in the Univ of Mich consumer confidence
survey for February (75.1 vs 75.0 expected) helped propel US stocks to new highs. EM also got a
bid on Friday, as both Indian and Chinese indices posted strong reversal candles, though it remains
to be seen if it can be sustained in any way. December Canadian merchandise trade figures
showed a huge beat past expectations of a $300m deficit, printing at a $3.0b surplus. This helped
propel CAD to big gains in FX land on Friday, and leading to some breakouts in CAD pairs.
The S&P rallied another 0.60% on Friday as the DM bull trade continues to be on. I am getting a bit
less outright bullish at these levels, and given my large net-long weighting in US equities (which
grew quite a bit on Friday), I bought some protection in the form of bear ETFs, for a trade. Summer
2008 highs in the SPY ETF come in at around 2% from current levels, and I’m expecting some selling
around there. I remain constructive US equity in the intermediate term.
US yields are on the rise and this is weighing down on EURUSD and Friday was no different, with a
big fig drop in the cross. EURUSD has spent the last month or so consolidating its rally since
January lows, and for now, I am more biased to a downside resolution, with 1.35 being the big
level to watch. USD and US equity could both rally together here, as the US recovery becomes
After bouncing hard off of the support trendline I have drawn in, AUDUSD is back above parity and
I’m out of the quick tech-driven short I had on. As of 1015pm EST, AUDUSD is up another 60 pips
above parity and not looking too bearish at all. Interesting to note that AUS-US swap spreads are
suggesting quite rich valuations for AUDUSD at prevailing rates, with an implied gap of about 650
pips. Also interesting is that AUD is trading with a higher correlation to the Kospi than KRW is
showing, and with EM seeing massive foreign capital outflows and rising “bad” inflation, perhaps
this is another harbinger of an extended sell off in Aussie. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens out with
some dovish comments that weighed down on AUD on Friday, but the reaction appears a bit
excessive. I am hesitant to get outright short AUDUSD unless I see some technical breakdown, and
for now I sit agnostic. Chinese CPI print tomorrow should move the pair, particularly if it comes in
on the higher end, suggesting more tightening in store.
US 5yr TIPS inflation compensation is now back to 200bps (orange line, LHS), while short(er)-end
rates look to be on the rise for the first time in a while (blue, LHS), and 2s10s (red, RHS) are
steepening in tandem. With the economy strong, EM underperforming, US yields rising, and no
signal of QE2 being extended, USD could be poised to rally here. The recent breakout in USDJPY
could signal a shift of carry funding back to the JPY, as the summer 2010 double-dip fear-induced
USDJPY plunge is unwound. US growth risks + Fed bid for USTs led to a big selloff in USDJPY from
last summer; with the opposite in effect now, the shift in carry funding thesis looks sound.
Mobile computing and application development is definitely a fast-growing industry presently, and
smart device software developer, engineer, and consultant B Square (BSQR) is seeing the positive
effects of it, with earnings jumping back into the black this past summer and continuing the trend
in its November report. It is showing a nice, round bounce off its 55d and has been showing clear
accumulation since its earnings report in November. BSQR is about 11% off its 52wk highs and
looks great for a surge right through into new highs. Q3 sales were up 55% YoY and both top- and
bottom-line have started a strong uptrend ever since June.
Naufal