The Royal Statistical Society

A career as a …
forensic statistician

Forensic statisticians help to quantify evidence in criminal cases

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Below is a guide to a career as a forensic statistician. The information has been compiled by
people with knowledge and experience in this area. For our other guides, please see the
Careers in Statistics homepage.

• The importance of forensic statistics

• What does this career entail?
• Who employs forensic statisticians?
• What qualifications are typically required?
• Continuing professional development
• Salaries and opportunities for advancement
• How to locate job vacancies for forensic statisticians
• Person profile
• Useful web links

The importance of forensic statistics

Forensic statistics is the application of statistics to forensic science and the law.

Broadly speaking, forensic science is the analysis of traces of evidence (such as body fluids,
glass fragments, footprints and drugs) left at the scene of a crime by the criminal, victim or
others. This evidence may be used subsequently to either implicate or exonerate a person
suspected of committing that crime, or just to gain further insight into the incident. Over the
years, with increasing technological advancement, forensic science has become a key part of
criminal investigations worldwide.

But forensic science doesn't just involve identifying traces of evidence – sometimes it isn't
obvious just what a piece of evidence really is. Other important questions that need to be
answered are just how the evidence came to be at the crime scene, where did it originally
come from, and who left it there. This suggests a natural role for statistics, as these questions
can typically only be answered in terms of probabilities. So it is not surprising that the
primary task of forensic statisticians is to evaluate any evidence found at a crime scene, so
that this evidence can be appropriately presented to a jury in court. This task obviously
carries great responsibility.

The advent of DNA profiling in the 1980s brought a big change in the way the legal system
viewed quantitative data. Now a quantitative approach is being requested in many areas, far
removed from the original area of DNA profiling. The earlier research and development
work is being applied and further work is being done to tackle the increasingly more complex
cases which arise in bringing a sound statistical approach to the assessment of evidence.

What does this career entail?

Please note first that forensic statisticians can operate under various guises (further details can
be found in the "Who employs forensic statisticians?" section). At one end of the scale, there
are people employed by forensic science units specifically to analyse forensic data; at the
other end, there are some university lecturers who specialise in carrying out statistical
research on forensic matters and act as consultant forensic statisticians when required. The
methods of statistical analysis used will usually be similar, no matter where on this scale a
forensic statistician is operating.

For an appropriate evaluation of evidence, a comparison of probabilities of the evidence

under two different propositions is required. These propositions are usually those put forward
by the prosecution and the defence. There are advanced statistical methods for doing this (for
readers who are technically inclined, they are based on likelihood ratios or Bayes' factors).
Much theoretical work has been done in the development of these methods. Calculations
based on them might sometimes be fairly straightforward, though it also often turns out that
there are non-standard issues to consider.

One example of casework that a forensic statistician may be involved with is DNA profiling,
which is a powerful method of identification using genetics. Often, the evidence to be
evaluated involves human (or sometimes animal) biological material such as blood, semen or
vaginal fluid. Considerable work has been done in statistical and population genetics in
assessing the importance of such evidence. Applications, however, are often not restricted to
simple cases with one sample of DNA left at the scene of a crime and one suspect.
Complications very often arise, for example because relatives may be involved, or the suspect
may have been identified by a search through a DNA profile database, or the sample found at
the crime scene may be a mixture of body fluids from more than one person. More advanced
statistical methods are required in such situations.

Another role of a forensic statistician relates to sampling problems and determination of

sample size. In some cases, it is necessary to examine a consignment of similar-looking items,
and it is often not practical to examine every item. This may be purely on financial grounds
but may be on health grounds also. The question then arises as to how many items should be
examined on a sampling basis. For example, the consignment to be examined may be a set of
CDs, some of which are thought to contain pornographic material. Then it is desirable for the
examining officers to examine as few CDs as is commensurate with a good description of the
proportion of the CDs which are illicit. The sample size determination is really just a quality
control problem; there are UN Guidelines where the problem concerns drugs.

Finally, an important part of being a forensic statistician, as indeed it is for any statistician, is
the ability to communicate results effectively to non-statisticians. Forensic statisticians are
often required to attend court cases as "expert witnesses". This involves reporting calculated
probabilities, or other statistical measures, to the jury, and explaining to them how the
calculations were performed. This is a challenge in itself, as the jury will typically consist of
people who have little knowledge of statistical methods, and is further complicated by the
need to choose careful wording (so as not to "lead" the jury into a decision on guilt or
innocence of a defendant).

Who employs forensic statisticians?

There is an increasing need for people to understand the role and application of probability
and statistics in forensic science and the law. However, there are essentially no jobs and no
career structure in forensic statistics in the UK as such.

The Forensic Science Service (FSS) of England and Wales has an Interpretation Group which
considers problems of evidence evaluation, but it is small in size. In many cases, if the FSS
wants help with a problem, it employs consultants. The Home Office has a Policing and
Reducing Crime Unit which offers occasional contract work for statisticians to assist in
particular projects. Individual police forces and law firms may also seek assistance with
particular cases.

The area of DNA profiling is also growing. Although not strictly forensic statistics, there
may be opportunities for statisticians in companies specialising in the analysis of DNA
profiles for paternity and kinship testing.

The main route into a career involving forensic statistics is essentially as an academic, either
as a university lecturer or specifically as a researcher. You would probably need to gain a
lecturing or research post in a mathematics or statistics university department, and then
pursue a research or consultancy path as part of your day-to-day work there. There are some
research institutes that primarily focus on forensic science and statistics, notably the Joseph
Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning

What qualifications are typically required?

As we have explained above, it is often necessary to follow a career as an academic in order

to be involved with forensic statistics, and the qualifications required for this are outlined on
our career as a university lecturer page. For other positions, within forensic science units
(UK-based or otherwise) or companies, an appropriate undergraduate degree is likely to be a
minimum requirement, with postgraduate experience an advantage.

Continuing professional development

Forensic statisticians need to continue their personal and professional development. This can
be done in several ways.

Most universities offer staff development programmes in which you may take short courses
on almost anything, including computing software, presentational skills, management
development and teaching skills. Even if you do not work in a university, at least some
courses of a similar nature are likely to be available.

The statistical methods on which your work is based are also, of course, used in other
application areas. You will probably find that there are conferences where the latest
developments in these methods are explored; you might be able to submit papers or abstracts
about your statistical work and attend the conferences, when you could have the opportunity
to present your own papers as well as attend other presentations. Many conferences also have
workshops in which you could participate. You are also likely to be encouraged to write up
the statistical aspects of your work as formal papers for academic journals.

It will be extremely important to develop your communication skills, so that you can report
your findings effectively to members of the police and legal professions, and all the more so if
you will actually be appearing in court as an expert witness. It will also be important to gain
some understanding of the legal system.

Your professional work as a statistician might well make it appropriate for you to seek the
professional qualification of Chartered Statistician (CStat), which would give you a
professional affiliation with the Royal Statistical Society.

Salaries and opportunities for advancement

As we have explained, work as a forensic statistician is likely to be on a consultancy basis,

often coupled with a career as an academic. So there is, in effect, no salary structure attached
to a career as a forensic statistician per se. General information about salaries in the academic
sector can be found on our career as a university lecturer page. This also contains information
about academic career structures and promotion prospects.

How to locate job vacancies for forensic statisticians

Again, the absence of a career as such means that there are unlikely to be advertisements
explicitly for "forensic statisticians" as such, though there may be opportunities for
statisticians and programmers within government or commercial forensic science and DNA
profiling organisations. Any advertisements might appear in several places, including the
following:

Daily newspapers (The Times, The Guardian and The Independent are probably the
best).
The newsletter RSS NEWS of the Royal Statistical Society which is issued monthly to
all members of the Society.
Electronic mailing lists (such as Allstat).
New Scientist.
Person profile

Colin Aitken (University of

Edinburgh). I am Professor of
Forensic Statistics in the
University of Edinburgh. I
graduated in 1974 with a BSc in
Mathematical Sciences from the
University of Edinburgh, then
took a Diploma in Mathematical
Statistics at the University of
Cambridge and a PhD in
Statistics at the University of
Glasgow. It was there I met my
first statistical problem in
forensic science, when I was
asked to advise a forensic
odontologist on the evidence of
bite marks. Whilst still involved
with that problem, I took up a
lectureship at the University of
Strathclyde. There was, and still
is, a Forensic Science Unit there,
and I collaborated with members
of the unit on problems of
evidence evaluation for hair.

One of the forensic science lecturers I met at Strathclyde moved to Australia where he is now
Director of Forensic Services for the Australian Federal Police. In 2002 I presented a plenary
talk in Canberra at the 16th Symposium of the Australian and New Zealand Forensic Science
Society at his invitation. Little did I realise when we first met over twenty years previously that
one outcome would be an all-expenses-paid trip to the other side of the world!
After a couple of years I moved full circle back to the University of Edinburgh to be a Lecturer
in Statistics, where I have remained ever since. I have continued to work in statistics as applied
to forensic science. In 1995 I wrote a book entitled 'Statistics and the evaluation of evidence for
forensic scientists' and in 2004 a second edition was published, written in conjunction with a
forensic scientist. The book is in use all over the world and such is the growth in the subject
that the second edition is almost twice the length of the first.
I have occasionally helped police with their enquiries, and lawyers with criminal cases. This
has increased over the last two years as I have been fortunate to obtain grant funding to appoint
a research fellow to help with research and with solving the non-trivial problems which arise.
I have been fortunate to work in a university environment. There, one is encouraged to pursue
knowledge for its own sake and not in response to particular problems. Thus it is that, over
many years whilst the subject of forensic statistics was developing, I was able to assist in that
development without the demands of solving particular projects to short deadlines. It is difficult
to imagine another career in which I could have worked in such a way.
Useful web links

Council for the Registration of Forensic Practitioners: http://www.crfp.org.uk/

Forensic Alliance: http://www.forensicalliance.com/
Forensic Science Service: http://www.forensic.gov.uk/forensic/entry.htm
Joseph Bell Centre: http://www.cfslr.ed.ac.uk/
Laboratory of the Government Chemist (LGC): http://www.lgc.co.uk/

List of web addresses used in this document

External addresses (i.e. outside the Royal Statistical Society)

Allstat mailing list http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/lists/allstat.html

Council for the Registration of Forensic Practitioners

http://www.crfp.org.uk/

DNA profiling http://gslc.genetics.utah.edu/features/forensics/

Forensic Alliance http://www.forensicalliance.com/

Forensic Science Service http://www.forensic.gov.uk/forensic/entry.htm

Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning

http://www.cfslr.ed.ac.uk/

Laboratory of the Government Chemist (LGC)

http://www.lgc.co.uk/

New Scientist http://www.newscientist.com/

Other addresses on the Royal Statistical Society web site

Careers in Statistics home page

http://www.rss.org.uk/careers

Careers in Statistics page for university lecturers

http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=2248

Chartered Statistician http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1254

Membership http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1052

The Royal Statistical Society cannot accept any responsibility for information provided on
sites other than its own.

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