Contents

Overview 3

Bahrain 5

Kuwait 7

Oman 9

Qatar 11

Saudi Arabia 13

United Arab Emirates 15

Contacts 17
Overview

Local market performance -3m % Economic Outlook

UAE • GCC countries account for approximately 40% of global
oil reserves
Bahrain

MSCI EmgMkts
• However, GCC countries are trying to diversify their eco-
Saudi Arabia nomic activity away from oil sector to other sectors
Oman such as the financial industry and tourism
Kuwait
• Surging oil prices have helped GCC economies in re-
MSCI World
cent years and have triggered extensive infrastructure
Qatar expenditure
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
• The collapse in commodity prices in 2008 has led to a
Source: Datastream, Sarasin reversal of fortunes. Highly levered Dubai has come
into difficulty

Local market performance -12m % Equity Markets

UAE • GCC stock markets have outperformed the MSCI World
in 1Q10. Performance has been rather mixed across
Bahrain
countries
MSCI EmgMkts

Saudi Arabia • In 2009 GCC equities have underperformed relative to

Oman Emerging Markets but traded in line with MSCI World
Kuwait
• Valuations for GCC stock markets are slightly cheaper
MSCI World
than the MSCI World and the MSCI Emerging Markets
Qatar

-30% 0% 30% 60% 90% • Demand for investments into the region is subdued due
to the financing problems of Dubai.
Source: Datastream, Sarasin

Note: Performance and valuation data is sourced from Datastream as of 31 March 2010

3
Chartbook Gulf Countries

Earnings growth and market valuation

Country / Region Market Value in Trailing Dividend Price to Price to

million USD p/e ratio yield in % book ratio cashflow
Bahrain 1 831 -42.9 3.7 1.0 -7.1
Kuwait 39 059 23.5 2.5 1.9 9.1
Oman 4 473 12.4 3.9 2.0 5.5
Qatar 12 461 12.6 4.6 1.9 5.9
Saudi Arabia 105 454 28.4 3.1 2.3 14.5
UAE 14 868 11.8 2.3 0.9 9.7
MSCI Arabian 161 112 20.2 3.1 2.1 10.3
MSCI EmMa 3 330 230 20.6 2.0 2.1 10.9
MSCI World 22 357 470 21.2 2.3 1.9 10.0
Source: Datastream, Sarasin

Trailing p/e ratio Dividend yield in %

30 5

25
4

20
3
15
2
10

1
5

0 0
Kuwait

Qatar

Qatar

Kuwait
Saudi Arabia

MSCI World

MSCI EmMa

Arabian

Oman

Oman

Bahrain

Arabian

Saudi Arabia

MSCI World

MSCI EmMa
UAE

UAE
MSCI

MSCI

Source: Datastream, Sarasin Source: Datastream, Sarasin

Price to book ratio Price to cashflow

2.5 15

2.0

10
1.5

1.0
5

0.5

0.0 0
Qatar

Kuwait

Kuwait

Qatar
Saudi Arabia

Arabian

MSCI EmMa

Oman

MSCI World

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

MSCI EmMa

Arabian

MSCI World

Oman
UAE

UAE
MSCI

MSCI

Source: Datastream, Sarasin Source: Datastream, Sarasin

4
Bahrain

Area 741 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 727 785 • Smallest oil & gas reserves in GCC, but Bahrain is an
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 26.89 billion important financial centre in the region with financial
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 37 400 corporation generating one third of non-oil GDP
Market value in mil USD 1 831
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook • Growth in Bahrain may slow in the near future as it is
most vulnerable to financial deleveraging and does not
Local market performance -6m % gain from oil prices

Bahrain
• Since 2001 the Bahraini Dinar is pegged to the USD.
UAE As a result the Bank of Bahrain is forced to mimic US
Kuwait
monetary policy

Qatar
Equity Market
Oman
• The stock market of Bahrain has been volatile in the
MSCI EmgMkts last few months and has strongly underperformed other
MSCI World emerging markets

Saudi Arabia
• Within the MSCI Arabian, Bahrain is one of the cheaper
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
markets based on dividend yield and price to book ra-
Source: Datastream, Sarasin tios

Sector composition • Within the MSCI Bahrain there are only two sectors.
The sector composition is extremely biased towards fi-
85% Financials nancial stocks
15% Telecom

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

5
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

16 6

14
5
12
4
10

3
8

6 2

4
1

2
0
0

-1
-2

-4 -2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bahrain GDP growth yoy% (EIU) Bahrain CPI yoy %

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

10 0.40 280

9 260

0.39
8 240

220
7
0.38
200
6
180
5 0.37
160
4
140
0.36
3
120
2
0.35 100

1 80

0 0.34 60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bahrain bank lending rate S&P / IFCG Bahrain index
Bahrain prime rate
Bahraini Dinar to US Dollar (r.h. scale)

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

140 40

20
120

0
100

-20

80
-40

60
-60

40
-80

20 -100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI Bahrain relative to MSCI World MSCI Bahrain trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Bahrain relative to MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

6
Kuwait

Area 17 818 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 2 691 158 • Kuwait has the second largest oil reserves in GCC and
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 149.5 billion is heavily dependent on oil exports as the economy is
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 57 500 poorly diversified
Market value in mil USD 39 059
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook • The fall in oil prices has led to a contraction of GDP in
2009 but the rebound in prices bodes well for 2010
Local market performance -6m%
• Kuwait has the most flexible exchange rate regime in
Bahrain
GCC. The Kuwaiti dinar is pegged against a (non-
UAE
disclosed) basket of currencies and is likely to appreci-
Kuwait ate against the dollar
Qatar
Equity Market
Oman
• The stock market of Kuwait was a relative underper-
MSCI EmgMkts
former within the gulf region in the last six months and
MSCI World underperformed emerging markets in 2009
Saudi Arabia

• Valuation, based on a trailing P/E ratio, is high com-

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
pared to other markets. Kuwait trades at a premium to
Source: Datastream, Sarasin the MSCI World

Sector composition • Within the MSCI Arabian, Kuwait is one of the more ex-
pensive markets based on dividend yield and trailing
51% Financials p/e ratios
35% Telecom

7% Industrials
• Within the MSCI Kuwait the key sectors are financials
and telecom. The sector composition is extremely bi-
7% Materials
ased towards financial stocks
0% Cons Disc

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

7
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

18 11

16 10

14 9

8
12
7
10
6
8
5
6
4
4
3
2
2

0 1

-2 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Kuwait GDP growth yoy% (EIU) Kuwait CPI yoy %

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

10 0.35 1000

9 0.34 900

8 0.33 800

7 0.32 700

6 0.31 600

5 0.30 500

4 0.29 400

3 0.28 300

2 0.27 200

1 0.26 100

0 0.25 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Kuwait bank lending rate Kuwait KIG general index
Kuwait discount rate
Kuwaiti Dinar to US Dollar (r.h. scale)

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

160 45

140 40

35
120

30
100

25
80
20

60
15

40 10

20 5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI Kuwait relative to MSCI World MSCI Kuwait trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Kuwait relative to MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

8
Oman

Area 309 500 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 3 418 085 • Oman’s GDP growth has slowed significantly in 2009
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 66.87 billion but rising oil prices could lead to a trend-reversal in
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 20 200 2010
Market value in mil USD 4 473
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook • The government is pursuing extensive infrastructure
projects in order to diversify its oil dependent economy
Local market performance -3m%
• The economy has experienced the slowest population
Bahrain
growth of all GCC as the government tries to substitute
UAE
foreign by domestic skilled labour force
Kuwait

Qatar Equity Market

• The stock market of Oman was an average performer
Oman
within the gulf region in the last six months
MSCI EmgMkts

MSCI World • Due to the stock market correction in 2008 the trailing
Saudi Arabia P/E ratio fell significantly. Oman still trades at a dis-
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
count to MSCI World

Source: Datastream, Sarasin • Within the MSCI Arabian, Oman is one of the average
valued markets based on dividend yield and price to
Sector composition book ratios

53% Financials • The MSCI Oman has a mix of financials, industrials,

17% Telecom telecom and materials. The sector composition is bi-
13% Materials ased towards financial stocks
14% Energy

4% Industrials

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

9
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

14 14

12 12

10
10

8
8

6
6
4

4
2

2 0

0 -2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oman GDP growth yoy% Oman CPI yoy %

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

x10-2 000'S
10 40.00 12

9 39.50
10
8 39.00

7 38.50
8
6 38.00

5 37.50 6

4 37.00
4
3 36.50

2 36.00
2

1 35.50

0 35.00 0
2002 2 003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Oman bank lending rate Oman Muscat Securities Market - Price Index
Oman prime rate
Oman Rial to US Dollar (r.h. scale)

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

160 30

140
25

120
20

100

15
80

10
60

40 5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI Oman relative to MSCI World MSCI Oman trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Oman relative to MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

10
Qatar

Area 11 586 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 833 285
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 91.55 billion
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 111 000
Market value in mil USD 12 461
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook
• Qatar has weathered the financial crisis relatively well
• Qatar has the third largest gas reserves in the world,
but tries to diversify into the financial industry and tour-
ism

Local market performance -6m % • The strong fall in inflation has removed some pressure
from the peg of the Qatari riyal against the USD
Bahrain

UAE
Equity Market
Kuwait • The stock market of Qatar has been an average per-
Qatar
formers within the gulf region in the last six months

Oman
• Valuations have steadily risen since 2007 but since the
MSCI EmgMkts
de-rating in 2008/09 Qatar is one of the cheaper mar-
MSCI World kets based on a trailing P/E ratio
Saudi Arabia

• MSCI Qatar trades at a discount to both MSCI World

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
and MSCI Emerging Markets on most valuation meas-
Source: Datastream, Sarasin ures

Sector composition • MSCI Qatar has a significant weighting in telecom, in-

dustrials and energy. However, the sector composition
62% Financials is heavily biased towards financial stocks
18% Telecom

10% Industrials

7% Energy

3% Utilities

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

11
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

25 14

12

20
10

8
15
6

4
10
2

0
5

-2

0 -4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 20 04 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Qatar GDP growth yoy% Qatar CPI yoy %

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

10 4.00 240

9 220
3.90
200
8

3.80 180
7
160
6 3.70
140
5
3.60 120

4
100
3.50
3 80

2 3.40 60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 09 2010
Qatar bank lending rate S&P IFCG Qatar index
Qatar discount rate
Qatari Rial to US Dollar (r.h. scale)

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

110 45

100 40

90 35

80 30

70 25

60 20

50 15

40 10

30 5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI Qatar relative to MSCI World MSCI Qatar trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Qatar relative to MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

12
Saudi Arabia

Area 2 149 690 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 28 686 633 • Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the GCC and
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 577.9 billion has the largest oil reserves in the world, representing
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 20 500 22% of the world total
Market value in mil USD 105 454
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook • Lower oil prices depressed Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth
in 2009 but we expect the economy to rebound force-
Local market performance -6m % fully in 2010

Bahrain
• Inflation has rolled over and inflation pressures are
UAE
likely to remain low
Kuwait

Qatar
• The Saudi riyal is pegged against the USD

Oman
Equity Market
MSCI EmgMkts
• Saudi Arabia has been a strong outperformer within the
MSCI World region, and has also outperformed the MSCI World
Saudi Arabia
• Based on a trailing P/E ratio Saudi Arabia is one of the
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
more expensive stock markets in the GCC region
Source: Datastream, Sarasin
• As the largest stock market in the region Saudi Arabia
Sector composition has the broadest sector diversification

47% Materials • The sector weighting is heavily biased towards materi-

29% Financials als and financials followed by the telecom sector
9% Telecom

5% Cons Staples

4% Industrials

3% Energy

3% Utilities

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

13
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

6 10

5
8

6
3

2 4

1
2

0
-1

-2 -2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Saudi Arabia GDP growth yoy% Saudi Arabia CPI yoy &

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

18 4.00 900

3.95 800
17
3.90
700
16
3.85
600
15
3.80
500
14 3.75
400
3.70
13
300
3.65
12
200
3.60

11 100
3.55

10 3.50 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20 07 2008 2009 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Saudi Arabia prime rate SAP IFCG Saudi Arabia index
Saudi Riyal to US Dollar (r.h. scale)

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

120 70

110
60
100

90 50

80
40

70
30
60

50 20

40
10
30

20 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI Saudi Arabia vs MSCI World MSCI Saudi Arabia trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Saudi Arabia vs MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

14
United Arab Emirates

Area 83 600 sq km Economic Outlook

Population (July 2009 est.) 4 798 491
GDP (PPP) 2008 in USD 206.3 billion
GDP per capital 2008 in USD 44 600
Market value in mil USD 14 868
Source: MSCI, CIA World Factbook
• UAE has seen robust growth in recent years as it is a
major oil exporter in the region
• Dubai has emerged as an important financial centre for
the whole GCC region

Local market performance -6m % • Financial turmoil may slow growth in Dubai in 2010,
particularly in the real estate sector
Bahrain

UAE
Equity Market
Kuwait • UAE was one of the weakest performers in the region
Qatar
and also underperformed the emerging markets

Oman
• Due to the strong links with other financial centers
MSCI EmgMkts
around the globe, Dubai is suffering most from the
MSCI World global financial crisis
Saudi Arabia

• UAE has the lowest dividend yield in the region but

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
trades at a discount to MSCI World based on a trailing
Source: Datastream, Sarasin p/e ratio

Sector composition • The sector composition of UAE is heavily tilted towards

financials which account for more than 2/3 of the
73% Financials stock market
19% Industrials
8% Energy

Source: Datastream, Sarasin

15
Chartbook Gulf Countries

GDP Growth Inflation

18 14

16
12

14
10
12

8
10

8 6

6
4
4

2
2

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Saudi Arabia GDP growth yoy % United Arab Emirates CPI yoy %

Interest and exchange rates Equity market performance (in USD)

4.00 300

3.95
250
3.90

3.85
200
3.80

3.75 150

3.70
100
3.65

3.60
50

3.55

3.50 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 09 2010
United Arab Emirates Dirham to US Dollar S&P IFCGD United Arab Emirates index

Relative market performance (in USD) Equity market valuation

110 55

100 50

90 45

40
80
35
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10

20 5

10 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
MSCI UAE relative to MSCI World MSCI United Arab Emirates trailing p/e ratio
MSCI UAE relative to MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World trailing p/e ratio
MSCI Emerging Markets trailing p/e ratio

16
Contacts

Research
Dr. Jan Amrit Poser Tel. +41 44 213 92 81
Head of Research jan.poser@sarasin.ch

Economic Research
Dr. Jan Amrit Poser Tel. +41 44 213 92 81
Chief Economist jan.poser@sarasin.ch
Dr. Alessandro Bee Tel. +41 44 213 92 83
Fixed Income Strategist alessandro.bee@sarasin.ch
Ursina Kubli Tel. +41 44 213 92 80
Forex Strategist ursina.kubli@sarasin.ch
Benoît Robaux Tel. +41 44 213 97 91
Corporate Bond Analyst benoit.robaux@sarasin.ch

Strategy Research
Philipp Bärtschi, CFA Tel. +41 44 213 95 72
Chief Strategist philipp.baertschi@sarasin.ch
Peter Bezak Tel. +41 61 277 72 40
Portfolio Strategist peter.bezak@sarasin.ch
Dr. Jianyong Wen Tel. +41 44 213 97 40
Quantitative Analyst jianyong.wen@sarasin.ch

Fund Research
Irene Huber, CFA Tel. +41 44 213 93 13
Fund Research irene.huber@sarasin.ch

Equity Research
Rainer Männle, CFA Tel. +41 44 213 94 99
Head of Equity Research rainer.maennle@sarasin.ch
Sector Strategist, Materials
Swiss Equities
Patrick Hasenböhler Tel. +41 44 213 94 81
Head Swiss Equity Research patrick.hasenboehler@sarasin.ch
Consumer Goods, Media, Misc. Services
Oskar Schenker Tel. +41 44 213 94 88
Chemicals, Construction, Technology, Industrials oskar.schenker@sarasin.ch
Dr. David Kägi Tel. +41 44 213 94 82
Health Care david.kaegi@sarasin.ch
Rainer Skierka Tel. +41 44 213 94 98
Banks, Insurances, Real Estate rainer.skierka@sarasin.ch
International Equities
Daniel Bischof Tel. +41 44 213 94 83
Financials daniel.bischof@sarasin.ch
Dr. Philipp Gamper Tel. +41 44 213 94 97
Industrials, Technology philipp.gamper@sarasin.ch
Michael Romer Tel. +41 44 213 94 84
Energy, Utilities, Consumer Goods michael.romer@sarasin.ch

17
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