Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
By
Akshat Bijlani
Reg. No. 08D1611
I further declare that this has not previously formed the basis of the
award of any degree, diploma or other similar title of recognition.
Place:________________________
Date:_________________________
Akshat Bijlani
08D1611
CERTIFICATE
This has not previously formed the basis of the award of any degree, diploma
or other similar title of recognition.
Place: Bangalore
Date: Leena James
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my profound gratitude to all those who have been
instrumental in the preparation of this project report. I wish to place on records, my
deep gratitude to my project guide Mrs Leena James, a highly esteemed and
distinguished guide, for her expert advice and help.
I would like to thank Dr. (Fr). Thomas.C.Mathew, Vice Chancellor and Dr.
Jain Mathew, HOD, for their support
I am deeply grateful to my friends who helped me to by him to conduct this
study, advising me on this project report and furnishing the required information.
Lastly, I would like to thank God, my Parents for their constant help and support.
Akshat Bijlani
Register No. 08D1611
TABLE OF CONTENTS
i. LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF GRAPHS
1 INTRODUCTION
MARKET
1.21 SILVER
1.23 DEMAND
1.23(3) PHOTOGRAPHY
1.25(1) BARS
1.25(2) COINS
1.25(3) ROUNDS
1.25(4) CERTIFICATES
1.25(5) ACCOUNT
1.25(8) DERIVATIVES
2 RESEARCH DESIGN
2.6 LIMITATIONS
3.1(4) SILVER2008
4 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
LIST OF TABLE
T7 FREQUENCY OF TRADING IN
COMMODITY MARKET
1.2 HISTORY
The modern commodity markets have their roots in trading of agricultural products,
while wheat and corn, cattle and pigs were widely traded using standard instruments
in the 19th century in united states other basic food stuffs such as soyabeans were only
added quite recently to be established there must be very broad consensus on the
variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another.
The economic impact of the development of commodity market is hard to over
estimate. Through the 19th century the exchange became effective spokes men for
and innovations of improvements in transportation warehousing and financing which
paved the way to expanded inter state and international trade.
Early history of commodity market historically dating from ancient Sumerian use of
goods, or other peoples using pig's rare seashells or other items as commodity many
people have sought ways to standardization trade contracts in the delivery of such
items to render trade itself more smooth and predictable.
Commodity money and commercial market in a crude early form are believed to have
originated in summer where small baked clay tokens in the shape of sheep and goats
were used in trade sealed in clay vessels with a certain number of such tokens with
that number written on the outside they represented a promise to deliver that number.
This made them a form of commodity money more than an "I owe you' but less than a
guarantee by a nation state or bank. However they were also known to contain
promises of time and date of delivery this made them like a modern futures contract.
Regardless of the details it was only possible to verify the number of tokens inside by
shaking the vessels or by breaking it at which point the number or terms written on
the outside became subject to doubt. Eventually the tokens disappeared, but the
contracts remained on flat tables. This represented the first system of commodity
accounting.
However the commodity statue of living things is always subject to doubt it was hard
to validate the health or existence of sheep or goats excuses for non delivery were not
unknown and these are recovered. Sumerian letters that complain of sickly goats,
sheep that had already been fleeced etc...
If seller's reputation was good in divided "backers or bankers" could decide to take the
risk of "clearing" a trade. The observation that trust is always required between
money market participants later led to credit money but until relatively modern times,
communication and credit were primitive.
Classical civilizations built complex global markets trading gold and silver for spices,
cloth wood and weapons most of which had standards of quality and time crisis
considering the money hazards of climate, piracy, theft and abuse of military fiat by
rules of kingdoms along the trade routers it was a major forces of these civilizations to
keep markets open and trading in these scarce commodity reputation and clearing
became central concerns and the states which could handle them most effectively
became very powerful empires trusted by many people to manage and meditate trade
and commerce.
1912 Forward trading in raw jute and jute goods started at Calcutta
1943 Defiance of India act was utilized on large scale for the purpose of
prohibiting forward trading in some commodities and regulating such
trading in others on all India basis
Oil seeds forward contracts prohibition order was issued and forward
contract in oil was banned
1946 These orders were retained with necessary modification in the essential
supplies temporary power act 1946, after the Defence of India act had up
set
1947 Bombay forward contract control act 1947 was enacted with the view to
evolving the unified systems for trading in Bombay
1950 Constitution of India brought the subject of stock exchange and futures
market in the union list and thereafter it regulation trading in all the
commodity that the committee recommended except bullion and basmati
rice.
1995 Setting up of separate department of consumer affairs, this as been in
fore front of major initiative ingoing commodity futures
1998 Forward contract in cotton and jute goods were permitted
1999 Revival of derivatives trade in some major oil seeds such as
groundnuts mustard seed seasame cotton seed government approved
a committee under the chairman ship of Sri K.0 Mishra the chairman
of FMC to prepare a rid map for setting up the nation wide multi
commodity exchange
2000 The national agriculture policy in July 2000 announced that the
government would like to encourage future contract in a large
number of commodity to minimize the wide fluctuation commodity
price and also allow the hedging
2002 The finance minister in budget speech on February 28,2002 indicated
that the future and forward contract expanded to include all
agricultural commodities First national commodity exchange
NCDEX started in November
2003 APRIL 2003 the government of India issued a notification rescinding
all previous notification which prohibited future trading in large
number of commodities in the country In may 2003 notification was
issued to revoking the prohibition on non transferable specific
delivery forward contract becomes a subject matter of central
government
1952 In December 1952 ,forward contract regulation act, 1952 was
enacted and it became governing act for commodity trading in India
1953 Selling up of forward markets commodity in september1953, which
even now is the regulatory authority of Commodity derivatives
market in India
1954 Forward contact regulation rules were framed in July 1954
1960 Wide spread prevailed in many essential commodities, the
consequent inflationary pressure and the regulatory constrain resulted
in poor trades in these markets forward trading was banned in 1960
in all commodity except in pepper, turmeric, castor seeds and
linseed. This resulted virtual dismantling of commodity future
market.
1977 Future trading in castor seed and linseed was also suspended
1980 On the basis of the recommendation made by khusro committee
forwarded trading in potato and gur was allowed in early 1980s and
castor seed in 1985
1993 Kabra committee was set to examine the role of future trading in
commodity
1994 Kabra committee submitted its report and recommended the
resumption of future trading in 17 commodity groups. The
suggestion by the committee also included the need for strengthening
the forward market commodity and amendment Of the contract
regulation act. In response top these recommendations the
government of India permitted the future Amendments to the
essential commodity act securities contract rules which have reduced
bottleneck in the development and growth of commodity market.
NCDEX and MCX another two national level multi commodity
exchanges started its operation
NCDEX and MCX another two national level multi commodity
exchanges started its operation
2005 Introduction of VAT which would enable hassle free movement of
commodity across state and more unified tax regime which would
facilitate easier trading in commodities.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis includes all factors that influence supply and demand. For the
commodities markets, fundamental factors include weather and geopolitical events in
producing countries—outside forces that influence price action. In financial futures
trading, factors such as Federal Reserve actions and economic reports are among
fundamental forces affecting prices.
Technical Analysis
Hedger
As an example of a hedger, you might be a large corn farmer wanting to sell your
product at the highest possible price. However, unpredictable weather may create
risk, as well as excess supply that could drive prices down. You could take a short
position in corn futures, and if prices fall, you could then buy back the futures at a
lower price than you previously had sold them. This would help you offset the loss
from your cash crop and help minimize your risk. Of course, if prices rose, you'd lose
money on the futures transaction, but the idea is to use futures as a hedge.
Speculator
Including individual investors and professionals such as hedge funds or managed
futures traders, could take the opposite side of the hedger's futures transaction. That
participant would bear the risk that prices are going to rise in hopes of generating a
profit on the long futures position. Most likely, this type of speculator has no actual
stake in the business, other than futures trading. A commercial food producer in need
of the raw product {a breakfast cereal processor, for example) may also take the other
side of the short hedger's trade to offset the risk of paying higher prices for the
commodity. If the price of corn rises, the commercial food producer could still
capture a profit from the futures position, even though he'd be paying more for the
actual corn.
An individual trader who commits his or her own capital to act as speculator on a
particular exchange provide market liquidity by constantly buying and selling
throughout the trading session and are viewed as important participants in the market
by shouldering risk. While the term local has been used to designate those trading in
the open-outcry markets, this era of electronic trading is making the phrase a little
obsolete. However, their function as liquidity providers is equally important in
electronic markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines this new
breed of electronic traders "E-locals," but they are often more simply known as
independent traders.
2. Large speculators: a group of investors that pool their money together to reduce risk
And increase gain like mutual funds in stock market, lare speculator have money
managers that make investment decision for the investor as a hole
Commodity trading systems is the special way of trading commodity on a real time
basis this system makes use of internet for setting up of the required communication
network. There are certain rules that are followed while the commodity system
operates. A number of technical indicators are used in commodity trading systems,
stock, moving averages, relative strengths index and the like are the commodity used
indicators in this systems of trading the traders operating in this systems can take the
help of several variables to develop an effective system that ideally suits their
requirements.
1.10(1) Trend-based commodity systems
Trend based commodity trading systems makes use of the benefits derived from the
market trends (upward and downward) . This systems of trading is developed on the
assumption that the price is more likely to follow the market trend rather than going in
the opposite direction. In most of the cases the trend following commodity trading
systems uses the performance of best players in the market to judge the trend of
market
On the other hand are developed on the assumption that most of the markets do not
follow any specific trend commodities are purchased when the prices move towards
the lower range and sell out when the prices are on the higher side. The range based
commodity trading systems functions well during the periods of low volatility because
market movements are least when volatility is low however efficient money
management is essential for successful commodity trading under the range based
systems
->A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at some time in the
future, at a price agreed upon today.
->The contracts are traded on an organized and regulated futures exchange so that
buyers and sellers can easily find each other.
->The exchange clearinghouse is the counterparty to every trade, which not only
reduces credit risk in futures trading but also makes it easy for position holders
to exit at any time they wish.
Importantly, a futures contract is an obligation (not a right like an option) and that
obligation must be fulfilled. In most cases it's fulfilled by simply making an
offsetting trade that takes you out of your original position (sold if one has bought;
bought if one has sold). But strictly speaking, you can choose to carry the position
all the way to the delivery date, when it's fulfilled either by the exchange of the
physical commodity or by a cash settlement.
This unique parentage enables it to offer a bouquet of benefits which are currently in
short supply in the commodity market. NCDEX is a public limited co-operated on
April 23, 03 under the companies act of 1956. NCDEX is a nation level, technology
driven de-mutualized on line commodity exchange with an independent board of
directors and professionals not having any vested interest in commodity markets. It is
committed to provide a world class commodity exchange plat form for market
participants to trade in a wide spectrum derivatives driven by best global practices
professionalism and transparency.
NCDEX is located in Mumbai and offers facilities to its members in more than 390
enters throughout India. The reach will gradually be expanded to more centers.
NCDEX currently facilitates trade of thirty six commodities cashew, castor seed
chana, chilly, coffee seed, oil cake, crude oil, mustard oil, gold, guar gum guar seeds,
jeera, sacking bags, mild steel ingot, mulberry mustard seed raw jute, pamolein refined
say oil, rubber same seeds, silk-silver, soyabean, sugar, tea turmeric, wheat, yellow
soyabean meal at subsequent phases trading in more commodities would be facilitated
1.13 MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED
[MCX]
Head quarters in Mumbai, MCX is led by an expert management team with deep
domain knowledge of the commodity futures markets, through the integration of
dedicated resources and scalalile infrastructure since in caption MXC has recorded
many first to its credit.
COMMONDITY EXCHANGE
Regional
Exchange
C2 CLASSIFICATTION OF COMMONDITY MARKET
COMMONDITIES
COFEE
PRECIOUS BASE SOYABEAN CRUDEOI PORKBELLY
METALS METALS WHEAT L ORANGE
PULSES CASOUNE JUICE
PAMOIL
1.14 GOLD
The prices of gold and paper currencies floated freely according to supply and
demand factors in their own markets. The United States and other central banks hold
physical gold reserves only as a psychological backing for their paper currencies.
World central banks hold a little over one billion troy ounces of gold, which equates to
roughly US$ 550 billion worth of gold [assuming a gold price of US$ 550 per ounce].
The United States holds the highest gold reserves, followed by Germany and France.
Yet, it is just a fraction of the total US debt or the amount of outstanding US currency
illustrating that gold now plays an significant role in backing the dollar or paper
currencies.
Gold's role as an official monetary asset diminished progressively and central banks
continue to reduce their reserves of the metal through outright sales and active lending
programmes. As ownership of the growing stock of gold shifted from the official
sector to the private sector, the gold market became truly global, with the strongest
growth in demand in recent times coming from the Far East, Indian Subcontinent and
the middle east. The shift became pronounced by the sale of gold in the late 1970s by
the United States and International Monetary Fund [IMF], who sold 530 mt and
1555mt respectively, in an attempt to demonetize gold. Outright gold sales are not the
only way that governments mobilize their physical gold reserves; in the past couple of
decades, a growing market has developed that enables central banks to lend, swap, and
transact options contracts on their gold holdings as well.
The mechanics of the lending market are relatively straightforward. Central banks
[and other owners of physical gold] are able to earn a small return on their gold
inventory by lending the gold to the market. The gold bullion banks serve as
intermediary in the transaction- paying the central bank the market lease rate,
typically 1% or so. The gold loans provide substantial liquidity to the gold market,
enabling producers to hedge their forward production and / or speculators to sell gold
short and earn the contango. Gold loans have the effect of accelerating gold supply to
the market, as the lent gold is sold immediately into the market and absorbed by
physical demand. Both producer hedging and speculator short sales were popular bear
market strategies as the gold price tumbled through much of the 1990 but have
diminished in the light of more recent gold price strength.
Gold, the best performing metal, may appreciate for an eight year as investors seek a
refuge from declining interest rates at the same time that central banks inject more
cash into the banking system. Average gold prices have risen for seven consecutive
years, the longest winning streak since at least 1949
Gold has attracted investors throughout the centuries protecting their wealth and
providing a safe heaven in troubled or uncertain times. This appeal remains
compelling for modern investors, although there are also a number of other reasons
that underpin the widespread renewal of investor's interest in gold. Gold is among a
handful of financial assets that do not rely on a promise to pay, offering refuge from
default risk. It provides insurance against extreme movements that often occur in the
value of traditional asset classes in unsettled times. Portfolios containing gold are
generally more robust and less volatile that those that do not.
Gold is valued in India as a saving and investment vehicle and is the second preferred
investment after the deposits. India is the world's largest consumer of gold in
jewellery as investment. In July 1997 the RBI authorizes the commercial banks to
import gold for sale or loan to jewelers and exporters. At present, 13 banks are active
in the import of gold. This reduced the disparity between international and domestic
prices of gold. The gold hoarding tendency is well ingrained in Indian society.
Domestic consumption is dictated by monsoon, harvest and marriage season. In the
cities gold is facing competition from the stock market and a wide range of consumer
goods.
1.17(3)Industrial demand
Industrial and dental uses account for around 13% of gold demand [an annual average
425 ton from 2003 to 2007 inclusive]. Recent research has uncovered a number of new
practical uses for gold, including its use as a catalyst in fuel cells, chemical
proceesing and controlling pollution. The potential to use nano particles of gold in
advanced electronics, glazing coating and cancer treatment are all exciting areas of
scientific research.
Gold ETFs are open-ended mutual fund schemes that invest in standard gold bullion
[0.995 purity]. The investment will be listed on a stock exchange. They can be
brought and sold on a real time basis, based on price movement of gold. From gold
coins to complex structured financial products, the most appropriate way will depend
on the requirements and outlook of the individual investor. In ETF gold is traded in
the form of securities
a. Gold futures
Gold futures contract are firm commitment to make or take delivery of a specified
quantity and purity of gold on a prescribed date at an agreed price. The initial margin
or cash deposit paid to the broker- is only a fraction of the price of underlying the
contract. That mean investor can achieve notional ownership of a value of gold
considerably greater than their initial cash outlay. Future prices are determined by the
markets perception of what the carrying cost - including the interest cost of borrowing
gold plus insurance and shortage charges ought to be at any one time. The future
prices are usually higher than spot price of the gold.
b. Gold options
These gives the holder the right, but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified
quantity of gold at a predetermined price at an agreed date. The cost of such an option
depends on the current spot price of gold, the level of pre agreed price [strike price],
interest rate, the anticipated volatility of the gold price and the period remaining until
the agreed date. The higher the strike price, the less expensive a call option and the
more expensive is the put option. Like future contract, buying gold option can give
the holder substantial leverage. Where the strike price is not achieved, there is no point
in excercising the option and the holder's loss is limited to the premium initially paid
for the option. Gold options are traded through brokers.
c. Warrants
The leading investment banks give the buyer the right to buy gold at a specific price
on a specific day in the future. For this right, the buyer pays the premium. Like future,
warrants are generally leveraged to the price of the underlying asset [gold], but
gearing can be on one for one basis.
a) Bullion coins
These coins are legal tender in their country of issue of their face value, rather than for
their gold content. For investment purpose, the market value of bullion coins is
determined by the value of their fine gold content, plus a premium or a mark up that
varies between coins and dealers. Bullion coins range in size from 1/20 ounce to
1000 grams. Although the most common weight [in troy ounces of fine gold content]
are 1/20, 1/10, %, 1A and 1 ounce.
b) Small gold bars
Small gold bars can be brought in a variety of weights and size, ranging from as little
as one gram to 400 troy ounces. Small bars are defined as those weighing lOOOgm or
less.
b. Unallocated account
Investors do not have specific bars allotted to them [unless they take delivery of their
gold, which they can usually do within two working days]. Traditionally, one
advantage of unallocated account has been the lack of any storage and insurance
charges, because the bank reserves the right to lease the gold account. Now, that the
gold lease rate is negative in real terms, some banks have begun to introduce charges
even on unallocated account, investors are exposed to the credit worthiness of the
bank or dealers providing the service in the same way as they would be with any other
kind of account. As a general rule, bullion bank do not deal in quantities under 1000
ounces, their customers are institutional investor, private bank, acting on behalf of
their clients, central bank and gold market participants wishing to buy or borrow large
quantities of gold.
There are also electronic currencies available, linked to gold bullion in allocated
storage-, which offer a simple and cost effective way of buying and selling gold, and
using it as money. Any amount of gold can be purchased and there currencies allow
gold to be used to send online payments worldwide.
Gold certificate offer investor a method of holding gold without taking physical
delivery. Individual banks, particularly in countries like Germany and Switzerland,
issue it; they confirm an individual ownership while the bank holds the metal on
client's behalf. The client thus saves on storage, and personal security, issues and
gains liquidity in terms of being able to sell portions of the holding by simply
telephoning the custodian
a. Forward
Forward contracts are agreements to exchange an underlying asset. Buy gold at an
agreed price at some future date. A forward contract is negotiated directly between
counter parties.
Trading takes place round the clock and in many centers around the world. The
London 'fix1 is the reference price on which a large number of gold transactions
around the world are based. The price is set twice daily at 10:30 and 3:00 London time
by matching buy and sell orders from all over the world. Based on the current market
activity, a 'trying' price is used and the demand- supply matching leads to an
equilibrium price at which demand is equal to supply.
1.21 SILVER
Silver is a white, lustrous metal that conducts heat and electricity better than any other
metal. In ancient times, many silver deposits were on near the earth's surface. It is one
of the first metals known to humans. Silver assumed a key role in the US monetary
system in 1792 when congress based the currency on the silver dollar, but then
discontinued the use of silver in coinage in 1965. Until the nineteenth century, most of
the nations were on a silver standard, i.e. the currency of the country is expressed in
terms of a specified quantity of silver of specified fineness.
Silver is not very chemically active, although tarnishing occurs when sulphur and
sulphides attack silver, forming silver sulphide on the surface of the metal. Because
India, the world's largest consumer of gold and silver, has traditionally been
described as a sink for precious metals, 'with a thousand gates for their entry and none
for their exit*. In the virtual absence of domestic production, the gold and silver used
in coinage, in temples, as ornaments by women, and more recently as an investment
option has come from overseas.
Approximately 4000 ton of silver is consumed annually in India, the vast majority of
which is used in the production of ornamental items -jewellery, utensils and gift
articles. Industrial uses play a smaller part, accounting for about 300 tons. In rural
communities, silver, considered a hedge against inflation, also provides an investment
function. Far more affordable than gold, it is purchased by small farmers in the form
of jewellery, while more wealthy farmers prefer bars, generally 15-30 kg in size.
1.23 DEMAND
The demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial usage, jewellery and
silverware and photography. Together, these three categories represent more than
95% of the annual silver consumption.
The joining of materials through silver blazing or soldering alloys is facilitated by the
metal's fluidity and strength. These alloys are used widely in applications such as
refrigeration equipment, automobiles and aerospace. Miscellaneous industrial uses for
silver include mirrors, batteries, as a catalyst in numerous chemical reactions and as a
bactericide an algaecide.
1.23(3) Photography
The photographic process is based on the presence of light-sensitive silver-halide
crystals prepared by mixing a solution of soluble silver, usually silver nitrate, with a
soluble alkali metal halide such as sodium chloride. Within this sector, the
radiography market is now the largest end user. Just a little less is consumer demand
with the printed images taking slightly more silver than that used in the films
themselves. The graphic arts account for much of the remaining off-take.
Photographic film manufacturers demand very high quality silver. It consumes about
342 million ounce of silver.
It nominated agencies and banks to import silver on consignment basis where the
ownership of the goods remains with the supplier and the importer [consignee] will be
acting as an agent of the supplier. Remittances towards the cost are required to be
made as and when the sales takes place. It provides for import of silver on outright
purchase basis subject to the condition that although the ownership of silver passes on
to the importer at the time of import itself, the price of silver will be fixed later, as
and when the importer sells the silver to the users. RBI announced that seven banks,
which were authorized to import silver for exporters, Special License Holder [SIL]
and returning NRI's could also import gold and silver for sale in domestic market,
without a license or without surrender of SIL. The SIL was withdrawn in 2001. the
government further permitted NRI's to bring 100kg of silver as part of their personal
baggage. The new Exim policy allows units in Special Economic Zones and Export
Oriented units to bring gold, silver and platinum against their export earnings. This is
in addition to several other incentives announced for the germs and jewellery
industry.
1.25 METHODS OF INVESTING IN SILVER
1.25(1) Bars
A traditional way of investing in silver is by buying actual bullion bars. In some
countries like Switzerland bullion bars can be brought or sold over the counter at major
banks. Physical silver, such as bars may be stored in home safe, a safe deposit box at
the bank, or placed in allocated or unallocated storage with a bank or dealer.
1.25(2) Coins
Buying silver coins are another method of physically holding silver. Can be purchased
at premium.
1.25(3) Rounds
Some hard money enthusiast use 0.999 fine silver rounds as a store of value. A cross
between bars and coins, silver are produced by a huge array of mints, generally
contain an ounce os silver in the shape of a coin, but have a status as legal lender.
Round can be ordered with a custom design stamped on the faces or in assorted
batches
1.25(4) Certificates
A certificate of ownership can be held by silver investor instead of storing the actual
silver bullion. Silver certificates allow investors to buy and sell the security without
the difficulties associated with the transfer of actual physical seller
1.25(5) Account
Most Swiss bank offer silver account where silver can be instantly bought and sold
just like any foreign currency. Unlike physical silver, the customers does not own the
actual metal but rather has a claim against the bank for a certain quantity of metal.
Many digital gold currency providers such as e-gold and gold money, offers as an
alternative of gold and work on similar principle. Silver account is backed through
allocated and unallocated silver storage.
1.25(8) Derivatives
Such as silver futures and options, these trade on various exchanges around the world.
It can be used to mitigate the risk of economic loss arising from the changes in the
value of the underlying can be used by investors to increase the profit arising if the
value of the underlying moves in the direction they expect.
The price of silver has been notoriously volatile as it can fluctuate between industrial
and store of value demands. At times, this can cause wide-ranging valuations in the
market, creating volatility. Silver often tracks the gold price due to store of value
demands, although the ratio can vary.
They serve as a conduit for physical trade - as buyers, sellers and distributors of the
metals. This involves active quotation of two-way prices. Banks also play the
important role of providers of credit to consumers, investors and hedgers.
> Governments
The governments of various countries play an active role in the silver market and
exercise a strong influence on prices. The Chinese, the United States and several
European countries are the most active participants.
CHAPTER 2
RESEARCH DESIGN
2.1 TITLE OF THE PROJECT OR TOPIC UNDER STUDY
The commodity market has not got too much exposure. The commodity marker
encourages long term investments and is not meant for daily trading. This project aims
of spreading awareness about how the commodity market works and it also shows the
returns it yields at a constant rate and also to have a deeper understanding.
SECONDARY DATA
• This data is collected mainly from books, magazines, internet and it also
includes by interacting with various investors who invest in commodity
market.
ANALYSIS AND
INTERPRETATION OF
DATA
GOLD AND SILVER
For the purpose of analysis and interpretation we have taken the price rise of the gold
and silver and also we have issued questionnaires to 50 persons. They include
individual investors, stock brokers, and brokerage firms. The data is collected from
the questionnaires answered by them.
We can know the prices of gold and silver for a period of 10 years. Through this data
we analyze the awareness of the investors about the commodity as a whole. The
investors view about investing in commodity market, its risk factors. The investor's
idea of investing in bullion market and the ways they invest.
From this analysis we can know the investors awareness and the reason for which they
choose other markets.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
April gold got hit in the financial panic like other commodities, but found support in
late-October at $700 and then chopped higher. On February 20th, prices hit $1,000
per ounce - a fairly rich level. So far, prices are still above the 50-day average
(updated 2-26).
In six short years, the tables have turned dramatically for gold. In 2001, the
production costs of gold were roughly $160 per ounce as prices dipped to
$270. Then in early-2008, production costs rose to $400 to $500 an ounce as prices
briefly hit $1,000. Much of the credit for gold's rise can go to the consolidation that
has taken place in the mining industry. This activity led to more disciplined
production decisions while the U.S. economy and dollar stumbled.
The heaviest burden on gold prices typically comes from central bank sales. In
September of 2004, a new five-year agreement limited sales to 500 tons per year.
However, bank sales did not reach their limit in 2008 and some are guessing that
banks are no longer eager to sell their gold. On April 8, 2008, the International
Monetary Fund let it be known that it may sell 13 million ounces of gold over several
years to raise cash,
On November 20, 2008, the World Gold Council said that world gold demand
was up 18% in the third quarter from a year ago. Pegging production is trickier. On
November 21, 2008, an analyst was quoted by Bloomberg news as saying that world
gold production will be down 3% in 2008 and down 5% in 2009. However, on March
3, 2009, Australia's Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said that they
expect world gold production will be up 3% in 2009. In late-2008, there was talk that
the financial panic led to a shrinking supply of gold coins.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
The chart above depicts silver's performance during the first half of 2004. A volume
spike jump-started a major rally during the early part of the year, and another volume
spike in May foretold a major bottom in formation, the major silver price bottom for
the past five years.
The market rallied into mid-2006, when another volume spike came within a few
weeks of a major top
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
A volume spike was registered very close to the major $21 high in early 2008. This
shows that is an increase in the prices in the year 2008. This is also shows that there
was huge demand for the silver in the commodity.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
Bottom line, these spikes appear to occur very close to or coincident with the timing
of a major high or a major low.
Although it's never prudent to rely on just one indicator, this, in my experience, is a
particularly powerful one. The silver market has been in a bull trend for the past five
months, and we would have to conclude at this time that the volume spikes registered
last week are indicative of a major top. I am a longer-term silver bull, but we should
have no bias. it would take a move above the recent high of $14.63 to negate what
these volume spikes are telling us.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
I consider a volume spike a day where trading volume runs 50 percent greater than the
30-day average. The 30-day volume average for silver futures is approximately
25,000 contracts. We saw three consecutive days of volume spikes Feb. 24-26, finally
registering volume well more than double the 30-day average. The price dropped
during this volume binge from about $14.50 an. ounce to around. The price of silver
bottomed in October 2008 and by early last week had risen almost 70 percent from
the bottom to the highest levels in the past year.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
The price of the gold to be traded in the commodity market is fixed by the London
gold fix. We can find that there is an increase in the gold prices over the last 8 years.
In the year may 2007 to May 2008 we find a decrease in the price of gold. But in the
year may 2008 to march 2009 we can see an increase in the prices. From the graph we
can know that investors can make a high profit if they invest in the gold as the prices
of the gold are going to increase as we see an increasing trend in the graph.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
The price of the silver to be traded in the commodity market is fixed by the London
fix.
From the graph we can know that the price of silver has followed a increasing trend
until 2007. From the year 2008 to 2009 we find a decrease in the value of silver. But
the production and supply is not affected at all.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
This graph shows the prices of the gold for the past 10 years. The price of the gold has
increased during the years till the mid of March 2006. Later we find a fluctuating
trend from 2006 to 2009. Even though there is a variation in the value of price the
demand of gold has not decreased.
This also indicates that a investor can invest in the gold with amount of risk as the
price of the gold is increasing. The investor can make profit if he stays for a longer
period. The graph also indicates the highest and the lowest price.
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
The graph shows that there is a fluctuating trend in the price of the silver. From the
year 2000 there is a decrease in the price. In the year 2003-05 there was a increase.
Later in the year 2006 there was a decrease. Then the prices increased at a very high
rate in the year 2007. In the year 2008 there was a huge fall in the prices. In the year
2009 it is recovering the decrease by a slight increase in the prices.
This shows that the prices of the silver are not moving at a constant rate of growth.
The value keeps changing all the way.
3.2 BASED ON QUESTIONNAIRES GIVEN TO
INVESTORS
T2
No of persons In percentage
Stock Market 35 70%
Commodity Market 10 20%
Forex Market 5 10%
Total 50 100%
G l0
ANALYSIS
From the data we can know that the investors are mainly trading in the stock market
than any other market. The commodity market stands second by 20% and Forex by
10%.
INTERPRETATION
The commodity market and the Forex market are showing low response because of
unawareness about the commodity market, the trading methods and techniques etc. In
case of Forex market it is the risk factor and the lack of knowledge to trade in the
International markets. The government, brokerage firms, can educate the investors
about the existence of these markets and the procedure for trading in these markets.
Investors are trading in the stock market because you can trade on a daily basis and
make profit. This cannot be done in commodity market, an investor has to wait till the
prices in the market rise and then sell, so it takes time.
3.2 (2) THE MARKET WHICH MORE RISKY
This graph shows the markets which are risky according to the investors
T3
No of persons In percentage
Commodity Market 0 0
Stock Market 40 80%
Derivative Market 0 0
Forex Market 10 20%
Total 50 100%
G l1
3.2(3) EXISTENCE OF TRADING IN COMMODITIES MARKET BY THE
INVESTORS.
This data shows from how many months or years they are into commodities trading.
Through this data we can know about the percentage of commodity market investors
and the knowledge of the investors about the existence of the market.
T4
No of persons In percentages
INTERPRETATION
From this graph we can know that the investors are educated about the commodity
market and they have started to invest in these markets in recent times. But when we
see about 6 months and 1 year trading we don't find a high percentage which was due
to lack of knowledge and awareness among the investors.
(4) GROWTH OF COMMONDITY MARKET IN THE COMONG YEARS
T5
No of persons In percentage
YES 45 90%
NO 5 10%
Total 50 100%
G13
ANALYSIS
From this graph we can know that majority of the investors said that the commodity
market will improve over the years i.e. 90%. But the rest 10% say that there is no
chance of growth and performance which may be due to less investor in the
commodity market
INTERPRETATION
This shows that the investors are sure that over the years to come commodity market
will improve and we can find many investors who will invest in this market in the
coming years. If the government conducts an awareness programme to make aware of
the market, then we can find many investors who invest in the market which later
results in growth of the commodity market. But the rest 10% say that there is no
possible growth because it is not traded on a daily basis and you have to wait for
some for the prices to rise. And also the number of investors is less when compared
with the stock markets.
3.2 (5) THE RATING OF THE COMMONDITY MARKET WHEN
COMPARED WITH STOCK MARKET AS GIVEN BY THE INVESTORS.
T6
No of persons In percentages
Poor 2 4%
Average 39 78%
Good 7 14%
Very good 2 4%
Total 50 100%
G 14
ANALYSIS
From the graph we can see that about 78% of the investors have said ratings as average
when compared to stock market. Only 14% has said it performs well, this may be
because they are earning the profit in the commodity market. About 5% said it has
poor performance and 5% said they are performing very well.
INTERPRETATION
From the analysis we can know that there are investors who invest in both commodity
and stock market. As they know the performance of these markets, its risk factor,
profit earning capacity etc. it also shows that the percentage of investors or the
people's awareness about commodity and stock market such that they compared the
factors of both the markets.
3.2 (6) FREQUENTLY OF TRADING IN COMMONDITY MARKET
T7
No of persons In percentages
Weekly 38 76%
Monthly 7 14%
Quarterly 10 10%
Total 50 100%
G 15
ANALYSIS
76% of the investors said that they trade on a weekly basis. 14% of the investors said
that they trade on a monthly basis. 10% of the investors said that they trade on a
quarterly basis.
INTERPRETATION
From the graph we can know that the investors are always looking into profit
maximization as they are staying in the market for a long time. When compared with
the stock market the time period is quite high as there we can make profit in a day and
come out. But in case of commodity market an investor has to stay in long run in
order to maximize his profits. In case of commodity market also we can find that the
investors are very eager to make profit in a week's time as 76% of the investor's trade
weekly.
(7) THE RETURN ON INVESTMENT WHEN COMPARED WITH OTHER
MARKETS
In this graph we can find out the investors opinion about the return on investment they
make in the commodity market when compared with the other markets.
T8
No of persons In percentage
YES 12 24%
NO 38 76%
Total 50 100%
G 16
ANALYSIS
From the data we can know that the investors are not satisfied with the return on
investment as 76% of them have said they are not satisfied with the return. While only
24% are satisfied with the return.
INTERPRETATION
From the graph we find that majority of the investors are not satisfied with the return
they receive. This may result in the down fall of the commodity market. If the interest
received is less the investors tend to invest their money in any other markets. The
commodity brokerage can ensure that their customers get the maximum return such
that they will sustain in the market. And to ensure that the commodity market will
grow in the coming years if there are more investors and trade happening in the
market.
3.2 (8) IS COMMONDITY MARKET MEANT FOR DAILY TRADING
T9
No of persons In percentage
YES 2 4%
NO 48 96%
Total 50 100%
G 17
ANALYSIS
From the graph we can know that the majority of investors say that
commodity market is not meant for daily trading. Only 4% of the investors say that
they can trade on daily basis.
INTERPRETATION
From the data we can know that commodity market is not meant for daily trading. If
an investor has to make maximum profit one has to invest for a long period and look
into the market price of commodities. Hence there are less number of investors due to
less knowledge of the market and also due period of the investment.
3.2 (9) THE COMMONDITIES THE INVESTORS TRADE THE MOST
T 10
No of persons In percentages
G 18
ANALYSIS
From the above graph we can know that about 60% of the investors invest in precious
metals like gold, silver, platinum etc. And about 4% invest in agriculture products like
wheat, pulses etc.
INTERPRETATION
We can know that investors are interested to invest in metals and agriculture as they
tend to vary in the market in a periods time and also easy to trade. The investors are
not interested to invest in energy and soft like coffee and juices. As there is high risk
and it is difficult to trade.
3.2 (10) THE EXCHANGE TRHOUGH WHICH THEY TRADE
T 11
No of persons In percentages
NCDEX 37 74
MCX 13 20
NYMEX Nil Nil
LME Nil Nil
Total 50 100%
G 19
ANALYSIS
The graph clearly shows that the investors trade mainly through these exchanges
in the commodities market. 76% of investors trade through NCDEX and the rest
through MCX.
INTERPRETATION
The graph clearly states that the investors are mainly investing in the agriculture and
precious metals. The brokers of the other two exchanges must try to convince the
investors about the profit making level in these products and try to bring more
number of investor's participation such that they trade through these exchanges.
3.2 (11) THE TRADING IN BULLION MARKET
T 12
No of persons In percentage
YES 30 60%
NO 20 40%
Total 50 100%
G 20
ANALYSIS
There are 60% of investors who invest in gold, silver and platinum. But still the rest
are trading in the other areas of trading.
INTERPRETATION
There are more investors who invest in the precious metal than any other market. It is
because the prices in the market keep changing according to the international changes.
The profit earned from these markets is high compared to other markets. The
investment made in silver and gold can be considered as investment or an ornament.
When we sell these after many years even at that time you can make double the profit
as earlier
3.2 (!@) THE TRADING SYSTEM INVESTORS FOLLOW
T 13
No of persons In percentage
Trend 15 30%
Range 35 70%
Total 50 100%
G 21
ANALYSIS
The graph shows that 70% of the investors follow range based commodity system
than trend based commodity system.
INTERPRETATION
The investors range based trading because they buy the commodities when the
prices are low and sell out when the prices are high. Under trend based system it
makes use of the benefits derived from the market trend. This is based on the
assumption that the price is more likely to follow the market rather than going ion
the opposite direction. It considers the performance of best players in the market to
judge the trend of the market.
T 14
No of persons In percentage
Speculating risk 15 30
Quota system Nil Nil
Price hedging on future 10 20
markets
Foreseeing demand and act 25 50
accordingly
Total 50 100%
G 22
ANALYSIS
The graph shows that about 30% say that they follow speculating risk, 20% price
hedging and 50% foreseeing demand.
INTERPRETATION
The investors are very careful while investing. As they choose the best protective
way while trading in the market, it is better to fore the demand of the product and
then trade. For example if it is the season of marriages the price of gold will be high
and at that time you can sell your gold at a higher rate.
The investors must follow be very careful in protecting the investment. Therefore
they must safeguard the investment by following a safer method.
3.2 (14) THE PERIOD ON INVESTMENT FOR HIGH RETURNS
T 15
No of persons In percentage
6 months
1 year 6 12
1-2 year 6 12
2 or more 38 76
Total 50 100%
G 23
ANALYSIS
The majority of the investors say that if one has to make profit he has to stay for a
period of more than 2 years. I he has to make a immediate minimum profit he can go
for investing in 1 or 2 years.
INTERPRETATION
If the investors invest for a period of more than 2 years he can make o maximum
profit. Because the prices of gold and silver are tend to increase over a period of time
when we look into the price variation graphs of gold and silver. In a single year if
there is a fall in the prices it takes time to recover the loss and gain the previous
position. Therefore it is better to invest for a longer period. If a person wants to
immediately get out of the market with a less percentage of profit he can invest for 1
or 2 years.
3.2 (15) TRADE THROUGH OWN ACCOUNT
T16
No of persons In percentage
YES 2 4%
NO 48 96%
Total 50 100%
G 24
ANALYSIS
As in the graph 4% trade through their own account. Rest of them trade through
their broker's account.
INTERPRETATION
The data says that most of the investors trade through their broker's account which is
safe as risk free. If they want to sell or purchase a commodity they can inform the
broker can say him what to do, and at what level of price he can buy or sell the
commodity in the market such that he gets the desired profit from investment.
CHAPTER 4
SUMMARY OF
FINDINGS
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
• Commodity market is a long term investment tool and if held on to for a small
period of time might not yield the same return as it would after a few years.
• Commodity markets are a important constituent of the financial
• market where a wide range of products are traded.
• The commodity market is more predictable market when compared to stock
market. The seasons for commodities like agricultural products are known and
investors can trade accordingly.
• The stock market is very interdependent if the stock of even one player in
the market crash the whole market crashes. This is not the case with company,
they are independent in nature and do not depend on such factor.
• The amounts of investments in commodity is pretty high but if it held for a
considerable period of time the yield are quite high.
• The investors are not educated about the commodity market. As a result the
investment made in commodities market is less when compared with stock
market.
• There are different methods of holding gold and silver in both physical
and non physical form. It ensures safety of the commodity without any locker
facilities.
• The trading takes place round the clock and in many centres around the world.
The London 'fix' is the reference price on which a large number of gold and
silver transactions around the world are based.
• The government has taken measures to develop the market by
introducing gold deposit, gold and silver certificates, gold
accumulation plans, silver and gold accounts and various other methods.
• Ultimately, the size of the gold investment market is some proportion of all the
gold that has ever been mined. On this basis, gold represents around 4% of the
market capitalization of global bonds and equities.
• When national currencies are no longer backed by real assets, gold maintains
its value as an independent, international currency but at the same time is used
as a commodity, and certainly viewed as a commodity, by many investors
around the world. Gold's ability to play this dual role successfully underpins its
usefulness to investors.
• Gold and silver is useful because it is valuable, and because of its other
properties. Other commodities are not as useful because they are not as
exchangeable or portable because they weigh too much given a similar value,
such as oil, zinc or copper. Or other commodities are not as useful as a long
term store of value because they spoil, such as food. Or other commodities are
not as useful because they are not fungible, and have a higher price range
between the buy and sell price, such as diamonds.
CHAPTER 5
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Investors are recommended to invest in the commodity market and all
investments made should be with a long term perspective to get good
returns.
• The brokerage firms, brokers and corporate can educate the investors
and the common people about the commodity Market such that there
is high amount of investment in the market.
• The investors are recommended to stay in the market for a long run
basis such that they get high returns on investments.
websites
• www.gold.org
• www.silver.
• www.wikipedia.com
• www.barcharts.com
• www.investindia.com
• www.silverinvesyment.com
• 3 .bp.blogspot.com
• Charts3 .barchart.com
• www.kitcosilver.com
• www.commodity.com
• www.dani2989.com
References
Sir/Madam,
We are in need of the information as a part of completion of our research project. This
project is a part of our curriculum. We seek only your general views about the topic
commodity market and its realities and the ways it has helped in giving you a better
return it yields at a constant rate. I thank you for your co-operation and also assure you
complete confidentiality of the information you will so sincerely and patiently share with
us.
Name of organization:_______
Name of the person:________________________Designation:
1. In which market do you invest in regularly?
Stock market
Commodity market
Derivative market
FOREX market
3. From how many years have you been trading in commodity market ever since its
existence from 2004?
just started trading
6 months
A year
More than a year (pis do specify how much_______________)
4. Do you think commodity market will improve in future in terms of (Growth and
Performance).
Yes
No
5. How well do you rate commodity market from comparing stock market with the scale
of 1 to 5 in terms of its growth?
1 - very poor
2- Poor
3 - Average
4- Good
5- Very good
Please specify the reason for the rate given______________________________________
7. Does commodity market ensure you more return on investment compared to other
markets?
Yes
No
8. Do you believe that commodity market is not meant for daily trading and why?
Yes
No
Please specify why____________________________
9. In which commodity do you trade on?
Precious metals [Gold, Silver... ]
Agriculture [Wheat, Pulses...] D
Energy [Crude oil, Gas...]
Soft [Coffee, Orange juice ...]
12. Do you trade directly through your own account or through a commodity broker?
Yes
No
13. Which type of trading system do you follow while investing in commodity market?
Trend based commodity system
Range based commodity trading system
14. How do you protect against price volatility in commodity market is it through
Speculating Risk
Quota system
Price hedging on future markets
Compensatory fund
Foreseeing demand and acting accordingly
Others pis specify_______________________________________________
15. How long do you think that one must invest in commodities to get better returns?
6 months
1 year
1 -2 years
2 or more
Thank you so much for your valuable time and pis mention any additional comments and
suggestions if any towards the above research
Best Regards,
Akshat Bijlani
BBA (Finance)
Christ University Bangalore -560029