Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
BY
ZUBAIR, AYODEJI OPEYEMI
MATRIC NO. 131025
OCTOBER, 2006
CERTIFICATION
This project has been read and approved as meeting the requirements for the
………………………………...................
SUPERVISOR
………………………………………….
HEAD OF DEPARTMENT
………………………………………….
EXTERNAL SUPERVISOR
ii
DEDICATION
This project is dedicated to God and my loving, caring and industrious mother
whose effort and sacrifice has made my dream of having this degree a reality. Words
cannot adequately express my deep gratitude to you. I pray you will live long to reap the
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
To the most High God be glory great things He has done. I acknowledge Your great
provisions, protections and support throughout the duration of this course.
My appreciation also goes to my Dad, Dr. S.D Zubair for his effort and suggestions
towards my progress in life
I cannot but appreciate the constructive suggestions, criticisms and encouragement of my
supervisor in person of Surveyor R.K Yusuf who allowed in particular, the use of internet in
communicating over the long distance.
I remain indebted to the entire staff of Space Applications, National Space Research and
Development Agency, Abuja particularly, Mr. Bayo Omoyajowo, My Folusho Fagbeja Mr.
Mustapha Aliu, Mr. John Nwagwu, Mr. Ibilewa, Ms. Rakia Abdullahi and other colleagues;
Bayo Ogundele, Folaranmi Olujuyigbe, Tukur, Tomi and particularly Oloojo Bamiji who has
been a good friend and confidant; you have all been there for me.
To my siblings, Toyin, Ibukun, Oluwaseun, and particularly, Rotimi for his financial and
moral support throughout the duration of the course; I say God will reward you greatly.
To my uncle, Michael Bamidele I say you will always be remembered for your support
and interest in my progress.
My thanks also go to Ehiwuogwu Uche and Ikena who encouraged me in the first place
to put in for the course.
I cannot but remember my roommate and friends, Akinola Akinwumiju and Meshach
Ijagbemi for their moral support during this course.
The efforts of my lecturers in the department in persons of Dr Fabiyi, Prof Ayeni, Mr.
Lekan Taiwo, Dr Dada, Mr. Adeleye and Prof Abumere (of blessed memory) at equipping me
for the challenges ahead is well acknowledged.
I also acknowledge the Global Land Cover Facility (University of Maryland) for the
provision free Landsat data which was used for this project.
Finally, deep gratitude goes to the entire students of GIS, University of Ibadan
particularly those who have both served as valuable classmates and close friends in persons of
Paul Azogor, Kemi Agboola, Meenakshi Singh, Itimi Victoria, Tope Adelaja, Adewuyi Pelumi,
Oyebade Niyi, Agbi Sunday, Oyedeji Adeoye, Samuel Afolayan, Abba Ottowo, Julian Uanhoro,
Adepetu Olubukola and others I am not able mention; I will miss you all.
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
Title page…………………………………………………………………………… i
Certification………………………………………………………………………… ii
Dedication…………………………………………………………………………... iii
Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………iv
Table of contents……………………………………………………………………...v
List of tables………………………………………………………………………….vi
v
3.5 Limitation (s) in the study……………………………………………………... 17
3.6 Methods of Data Analysis………………………………………………………19
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Introduction…………………………………………………………………….. 21
4.1 Land Use Land Cover Distribution……………………………………………...22
4.2 Land Consumption Rate and Land Absorption Coefficient…………………… 23
4.3 Land Use Land Cover Change: Trend, Rate, Magnitude……………………… 24
4.4 Nature and location of change in Land Use Land Cover………………………. 27
4.5 Transition Probability Matrix………………………………………………….. 30
4.6 Land Use Land Cover Projection for 2015……………………………………. .30
CHAPTER FIVE
vi
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PAGES
vii
LIST OF MAPS
MAPS PAGE
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURES PAGE
ix
ABSTRACT
This project examines the use of GIS and Remote Sensing in mapping Land Use
Land Cover in Ilorin between 1972 and 2001 so as to detect the changes that has taken
place in this status between these periods. Subsequently, an attempt was made at
projecting the observed land use land cover in the next 14 years. In achieving this, Land
Consumption Rate and Land Absorption Coefficient were introduced to aid in the
quantitative assessment of the change. The result of the work shows a rapid growth in
built-up land between 1972 and 1986 while the periods between 1986 and 2001
witnessed a reduction in this class. It was also observed that change by 2015 may likely
Suggestions were therefore made at the end of the work on ways to use the information as
x
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1
Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) are now
providing new tools for advanced ecosystem management. The collection of remotely
sensed data facilitates the synoptic analyses of Earth - system function, patterning, and
change at local, regional and global scales over time; such data also provide an important
link between intensive, localized ecological research and regional, national and
international conservation and management of biological diversity (Wilkie and Finn,
1996).
Therefore, attempt will be made in this study to map out the status of land use land
cover of Ilorin between 1972 and 2001 with a view to detecting the land consumption
rate and the changes that has taken place in this status particularly in the built-up land so
as to predict possible changes that might take place in this status in the next 14 years
using both Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing data.
2
use Land cover and particularly settlement expansion in the area requires a more
powerful and sophisticated system such as GIS and Remote Sensing data which provides
a general extensive synoptic coverage of large areas than area photography
1.4.2 Objectives
The following specific objectives will be pursued in order to achieve the aim
above.
- To create a land use land cover classification scheme
- To determine the trend, nature, rate, location and magnitude of land use
land cover change.
- To forecast the future pattern of land use land cover in the area.
- To generate data on land consumption rate and land absorption coefficient
since more emphasis is placed on built-up land.
- To evaluate the socio – economic implications of predicted change.
3
Her geology consists of pre-Cambrian basement complex with an elevation which
ranges between 273m to 333m in the West and 200m to 364m in the East.
The landscape of the region (Ilorin) is relatively flat, this means it is located on a
plain and is crested by two large rivers, the river Asa and Oyun which flows in North –
South direction divides the plain into two; Western and Eastern part (Oyebanji, 1993).
The climate is humid tropical type and is characterized by wet and dry seasons
(Ilorin Atlas 1981). The wet season begins towards the end of March and ends in
October. A dry season in the town begins with the onset of tropical continental air mass
commonly referred to as harmattan. This wind is usually predominant between the
months of November and February (Olaniran 2002).
The temperature is uniformly high throughout the year. The mean monthly
temperature of the town for the period of 1991 – 2000 varies between 25 0 C and 29.50 C
with the month of March having about 300C.
Ilorin falls into the southern savanna zone. This zone is a transition between the high
forest in the southern part of the country and the far North with woodland properties.
(Osoba, 1980). Her vegetation is characterized by scattered tall tree shrubs of between the
height of ten and twelve feet. Oyegun in 1993 described the vegetation to be
predominantly covered by derived savannah found in East and West and are noted for
their dry lowland rainforest vegetal cover.
As noted by Oyegun in 1983, Ilorin is one of the fastest growing urban centers in
Nigeria. Her rate of population growth is much higher than for other cities in the country
(Oyegun, 1983). Ilorin city has grown in both population and areal extent at a fast pace
since 1967 (Oyegun, 1983). The Enplan group (1977) puts the population at 400,000
which made it then the sixth largest town in Nigeria. The town had a population of 40,
990 in 1952 and 208, 546 in 1963 and was estimated as 474, 835 in 1982 (Oyegun,
1983). In 1984, the population was 480, 000 (Oyegun, 1985). This trend in population
growth rate shows a rapid growth in population. The growth rate between 1952 and 1963
according to Oyebanji, 1983 is put at 16.0 which is higher than other cities in the country.
The population as estimated by the 1991 population census was put at 570,000.
4
1.6 Definition of Terms
(i) Remote sensing:
Can be defined as any process whereby information is gathered about an object,
area or phenomenon without being in contact with it. Given this rather general
definition, the term has come to be associated more specifically with the gauging of
interactions between earth surface materials and electromagnetic energy. (Idrisi 32 guide
to GIS and Image processing, volume 1).
5
CHAPTER TWO
6
dynamics of land use resulting out of both changing demands of increasing population
and forces of nature acting to shape the landscape.
Conventional ground methods of land use mapping are labor intensive, time
consuming and are done relatively infrequently. These maps soon become outdated with
the passage of time, particularly in a rapid changing environment. In fact according to
Olorunfemi (1983), monitoring changes and time series analysis is quite difficult with
traditional method of surveying. In recent years, satellite remote sensing techniques have
been developed, which have proved to be of immense value for preparing accurate land
use land cover maps and monitoring changes at regular intervals of time. In case of
inaccessible region, this technique is perhaps the only method of obtaining the required
data on a cost and time – effective basis.
A remote sensing device records response which is based on many characteristics
of the land surface, including natural and artificial cover. An interpreter uses the element
of tone, texture, pattern, shape, size, shadow, site and association to derive information
about land cover.
The generation of remotely sensed data/images by various types of sensor flown aboard
different platforms at varying heights above the terrain and at different times of the day
and the year does not lead to a simple classification system. It is often believed that no
single classification could be used with all types of imagery and all scales. To date, the
most successful attempt in developing a general purpose classification scheme
compatible with remote sensing data has been by Anderson et al which is also referred to
as USGS classification scheme. Other classification schemes available for use with
remotely sensed data are basically modification of the above classification scheme.
Ever since the launch of the first remote sensing satellite (Landsat-1) in 1972, land
use land cover studies were carried out on different scales for different users. For
instance, waste land mapping of India was carried out on 1:1 million scales by NRSA
using 1980 – 82 landsat multi spectral scanner data. About 16.2% of waste lands were
estimated based on the study.
7
Xiaomei Y, and Rong Qing L.Q.Y in 1999 noted that information about change is
necessary for updating land cover maps and the management of natural resources. The
information may be obtained by visiting sites on the ground and or extracting it from
remotely sensed data.
Change detection is the process of identifying differences in the state of an object
or phenomenon by observing it at different times (Singh, 1989). Change detection is an
important process in monitoring and managing natural resources and urban development
because it provides quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution of the population of
interest.
Macleod and Congation (1998) list four aspects of change detection which are
important when monitoring natural resources:
i. Detecting the changes that have occurred
ii. Identifying the nature of the change
iii. Measuring the area extent of the change
iv. Assessing the spatial pattern of the change
The basis of using remote sensing data for change detection is that changes in land cover
result in changes in radiance values which can be remotely sensed. Techniques to
perform change detection with satellite imagery have become numerous as a result of
increasing versatility in manipulating digital data and increasing computer power.
A wide variety of digital change detection techniques have been developed over
the last two decades. Singh (1989) and Coppin & Bauer (1996) summarize eleven
different change detection algorithms that were found to be documented in the literature
by 1995. These include:
1. Mono-temporal change delineation.
2. Delta or post classification comparisons.
3. Multidimensional temporal feature space analysis.
4. Composite analysis.
5. Image differencing.
6. Multitemporal linear data transformation.
8
7. Change vector analysis.
8. Image regression.
9. Multitemporal biomass index
10. Background subtraction.
11. Image ratioing
In some instances, land use land cover change may result in environmental, social
and economic impacts of greater damage than benefit to the area (Moshen A, 1999).
Therefore data on land use change are of great importance to planners in monitoring the
consequences of land use change on the area. Such data are of value to resources
management and agencies that plan and assess land use patterns and in modeling and
predicting future changes.
Shosheng and Kutiel (1994) investigated the advantages of remote sensing
techniques in relation to field surveys in providing a regional description of vegetation
cover. The results of their research were used to produce four vegetation cover maps that
provided new information on spatial and temporal distributions of vegetation in this area
and allowed regional quantitative assessment of the vegetation cover.
Arvind C. Pandy and M. S. Nathawat (2006) carried out a study on land use land
cover mapping of Panchkula, Ambala and Yamunanger districts, Hangana State in India.
They observed that the heterogeneous climate and physiographic conditions in these
districts has resulted in the development of different land use land cover in these districts,
an evaluation by digital analysis of satellite data indicates that majority of areas in these
districts are used for agricultural purpose. The hilly regions exhibit fair development of
reserved forests. It is inferred that land use land cover pattern in the area are generally
controlled by agro – climatic conditions, ground water potential and a host of other
factors.
It has been noted over time through series of studies that Landsat Thematic
Mapper is adequate for general extensive synoptic coverage of large areas. As a result,
this reduces the need for expensive and time consuming ground surveys conducted for
9
validation of data. Generally, satellite imagery is able to provide more frequent data
collection on a regular basis unlike aerial photographs which although may provide more
geometrically accurate maps, is limited in respect to its extent of coverage and expensive;
which means, it is not often used.
In 1985, the U.S Geological Survey carried out a research program to produce
1:250,000 scale land cover maps for Alaska using Landsat MSS data (Fitz Patrick – et al,
1987).The State of Maryland Health Resources Planning Commission also used Landsat
TM data to create a land cover data set for inclusion in their Maryland Geographic
Information (MAGI) database. All seven TM bands were used to produce a 21 – class
land cover map (EOSAT 1992). Also, in 1992, the Georgia Department of Natural
Resources completed mapping the entire State of Georgia to identify and quantify
wetlands and other land cover types using Landsat Thematic Mapper ™ data (ERDAS,
1992). The State of southern Carolina Lands Resources Conservation Commission
developed a detailed land cover map composed of 19 classes from TM data (EOSAT,
1994). This mapping effort employed multi-temporal imagery as well as multi-spectral
data during classification.
An analysis of land use and land cover changes using the combination of MSS
Landsat and land use map of Indonesia (Dimyati, 1995) reveals that land use land cover
change were evaluated by using remote sensing to calculate the index of changes which
was done by the superimposition of land use land cover images of 1972, 1984 and land
use maps of 1990. This was done to analyze the pattern of change in the area, which was
rather difficult with the traditional method of surveying as noted by Olorunfemi in 1983
when he was using aerial photographic approach to monitor urban land use in developing
countries with Ilorin in Nigeria as the case study.
Daniel et al, 2002 in their comparison of land use land cover change
detection methods, made use of 5 methods viz; traditional post – classification
cross tabulation, cross correlation analysis, neural networks, knowledge – based
expert systems, and image segmentation and object – oriented classification. A
combination of direct T1 and T2 change detection as well as post classification
10
analysis was employed. Nine land use land cover classes were selected for
analysis. They observed that there are merits to each of the five methods
examined, and that, at the point of their research, no single approach can solve the
land use change detection problem.
Also, Adeniyi and Omojola, (1999) in their land use land cover change
evaluation in Sokoto – Rima Basin of North – Western Nigeria based on Archival
Remote Sensing and GIS techniques, used aerial photographs, Landsat MSS,
SPOT XS/Panchromatic image Transparency and Topographic map sheets to
study changes in the two dams (Sokoto and Guronyo) between 1962 and 1986.
The work revealed that land use land cover of both areas was unchanged before
the construction while settlement alone covered most part of the area. However,
during the post - dam era, land use /land cover classes changed but with settlement
still remaining the largest.
11
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
The procedure adopted in this research work forms the basis for deriving statistics
of land use dynamics and subsequently in the overall, the findings.
GROUND TRUTHING
12
3.2 Data Acquired and Source
For the study, Landsat satellite images of Kwara State were acquired for three
Epochs; 1972, 1986 and 2001. Both 1972 and 1986 were obtained from Global Land
Cover Facility (GLCF) an Earth Science Data Interface, while that of 2001 was obtained
from National Space Research and Development Agency in Abuja (NASRDA). 0n both
2001 and 1986 images, a notable feature can be observed which is the Asa dam which
was not yet constructed as of 1972.
It is also important to state that Ilorin and its environs which were carved out using
the local government boundary map and Nigerian Administrative map was also obtained
from NASRDA. These were brought to Universal Transverse Marcator projection in zone
31.
80m TM
3. Landsat image 1972-11-07 GLCF
6 Land use and infrastructure map 1984 1:150, 000 Ilorin Agricultural
of Ilorin. Development
13 Project
Table 3.1 Data Source
The geo-referencing properties of both 1986 & 2001 are the same while image
thinning was applied to the 1972 imagery which has a resolution of 80m using a factor of
two to modify its properties and resolution to conform to the other two has given below;
Data type: rgb8
File type: binary
Columns: 535
Rows: 552
Referencing system: utm-31
Reference units: m
Unit distance: 1
Minimum X: 657046.848948
Maximum X: 687541.848948
Minimum Y: 921714.403281
Maximum Y: 953178.403281
Min Value: 0
Max Value: 215
Display Minimum: 0
Display Maximum: 215
Image thinning was carried out through contract; contract generalizes an image by
reducing the number of rows and columns while simultaneously decreasing the cell
resolution. Contraction may take place by pixel thinning or pixel aggregation with the
contracting factors in X and Y being independently defined. With pixel thinning, every
nth pixel is kept while the remaining is thrown away.
14
3.3 Software Used
Basically, five software were used for this project viz;
(a) ArcView 3.2a – this was used for displaying and subsequent processing and
enhancement of the image. It was also used for the carving out of Ilorin region from
the whole Kwara State imagery using both the admin and local government maps.
(b) ArcGIS – This was also used to compliment the display and processing of the
data
(c) Idrisi32 – This was used for the development of land use land cover classes
and subsequently for change detection analysis of the study area.
(d) Microsoft word – was used basically for the presentation of the research.
(e) Microsoft Excel was used in producing the bar graph.
3.4 Development of a Classification Scheme
Based on the priori knowledge of the study area for over 20 years and a brief
reconnaissance survey with additional information from previous research in the study
area, a classification scheme was developed for the study area after Anderson et al
(1967). The classification scheme developed gives a rather broad classification where the
land use land cover was identified by a single digit.
15
The definition of waste land as used in this research work denotes land without
scrub, sandy areas, dry grasses, rocky areas and other human induced barren lands.
16
land use land cover type. Percentage change to determine the trend of change can then be
calculated by dividing observed change by sum of changes multiplied by 100
In obtaining annual rate of change, the percentage change is divided by 100 and
multiplied by the number of study year 1972 – 1986 (14years) 1986 – 2001 (15years)
Going by the second method (Markov Chain Analysis and Cellular Automata
Analysis), Markov Chain Analysis is a convenient tool for modeling land use change
when changes and processes in the landscape are difficult to describe. A Markovian
process is one in which the future state of a system can be modeled purely on the basis of
the immediately preceding state. Markovian chain analysis will describe land use change
from one period to another and use this as the basis to project future changes. This is
achieved by developing a transition probability matrix of land use change from time one
to time two, which shows the nature of change while still serving as the basis for
projecting to a later time period .The transition probability may be accurate on a per
category basis, but there is no knowledge of the spatial distribution of occurrences within
each land use category. Hence, Cellular Automata (CA) was used to add spatial character
to the model.
CA_Markov uses the output from the Markov Chain Analysis particularly
Transition Area file to apply a contiguity filter to “grow out” land use from time two to a
later time period. In essence, the CA will develop a spatially explicit weighting more
heavily areas that proximate to existing land uses. This will ensure that land use change
occurs proximate to existing like land use classes, and not wholly random.
Overlay operations which is the last method of the three, identifies the actual
location and magnitude of change although this was limited to the built-up land. Boolean
logic was applied to the result through the reclass module of idrisi32 which assisted in
mapping out separately areas of change for which magnitude was later calculated for.
17
The Land consumption rate and absorption coefficient formula are give below;
L.C.R = A
P A = areal extent of the city in hectares
P = population
L.A.C = A2 – A1
P2 – P 1 A1 and A2 are the areal extents (in hectares) for the early and
later years, and P1 and P2 are population figure for the early and later years
respectively (Yeates and Garner, 1976)
n = r/100 * Po (1)
Pn = Po + (n * t) (2)
18
Pn = estimated population (2001, 2015) Po = base year population (1991 & 2001
population figure)
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS
4.0 Introduction
The objective of this study forms the basis of all the analysis carried out in this
chapter. The results are presented inform of maps, charts and statistical tables. They
include the static, change and projected land use land cover of each class.
19
FARM LAND 2437.62723 25 7965.5733 8 14068.4949 15
WASTE LAND 41436.7713 43 55561.149 59 50317.263 52
BUILT-UP LAND 2198.2734 2 9702.8136 10 10815.921 11
FOREST LAND 11036.494 12 21393.0405 22 19960.2315 21
WATER BODY 16874.6562 18 1326.8916 1 787.5576 1
TOTAL 95949.468 100 95949.468 100 95949.468 100
Table 4.1 Land Use Land Cover Distribution (1972, 1986, 2001)
The figures presented in table 4.1 above represents the static area of each land use
land cover category for each study year.
Built-up in 1972 occupies the least class with just 2% of the total classes. This
may not be unconnected to the fact that the town (Ilorin) was made the state capital in
20
LAND USE LAND COVER MAP OF ILORIN IN 1972
655000 660000 665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000
N
950000 950000
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
LEGEND
930000 930000 NO CLASS
FARM LAND
WASTE LAND
BUILT UP LAND
925000 925000 FOREST LAND
WATER BODY
1967 which is just five years old from the date of creation to the date the image was
taken.
Also, farming seems to be practiced moderately, occupying 25% of the total
classes. This may be due to the fact that the city is just moving away from the rather
traditional setting where farming seems to form the basis for living. Apart from this, the
time of the year in which the area was imaged which happens to fall within the onset of
hamattan could also be a major contributing factor to the observed classification,
contributing to the high percentage of waste land and the low percentage of forest land.
21
Water body also seems to be arbitrarily exaggerated in the classification due to the
aforementioned problem in section 3.5
In 1986, waste land still occupies the highest class with 59% of the total class,
taking up more than half of the total classes. Furthermore, the high percentage may be
due to the season of the year as mentioned in the last paragraph. Water body takes up the
least percentage in the total class.
The pattern of land use land cover distribution in 2001 also follows the pattern in
1986. Waste land still occupies a major part of the total land but there exist an increase by
half in the total farm land. Still, water body maintains the least position in the classes
whilst built-up occupies 11% of the total class.
It should be noted here that the closest year population available to each study year
as shown above were used in generating both the Land Consumption Rates and the Land
Absorption Coefficients as given in table 4.2.1
22
4.3 Land Use Land Cover Change: Trend, Rate and Magnitude
From table 4.3, there seems to be a negative change i.e. a reduction in farm land
between 1972 and 1986. This may not be unconnected to the change in the economic
base of the city from farming to other white collar jobs as a result of the creation of
Kwara State in 1967 in which Ilorin was made the state capital. Subsequently, built-up
land increased by 8% while both forest land and waste land both increased by 10% and
16% respectively.
Many projects were embarked on after the creation of Kwara State which also falls
within the oil boom era of the 1970s and this attracted a lot of people to the area thus
contributing to the physical expansion of the city as evident in the increased land
consumption rate from 0.005 to 0.02 and land absorption coefficient by 0.09 between
1972 and 1986. Many of these projects include the Army barracks at Sobi, Adewole
Housing Estate, the International Airport, Niger River Basin Authority Headquarters,
University of Ilorin among many others which all encouraged migration into the city.
The period between 1986 and 2001 witnessed a drop in the rate at which the
physical expansion of the city was going as against 1972 and 1986. For instance, the
23
built-up land only increased by 1% as against the 8% increase between 1972 and 1986.
This is also evident in the drop observed in the land absorption coefficient from 0.09
between 1972 and 1986. In deed, the austerity measure known as (SAP) introduced into
the country at this period to restore the country’s economy could be a major factor to
what was witnessed at this period.
Also, there was a general increase of 7% in farm land which is evident in the 7%
reduction of waste land and 1% reduction of forest land. This may be as a result of the
shift back towards farming after the initial excitement of the oil boom which attracted
many people from farming to white collar jobs.
Furthermore, water body seems to remain at 1% though there are slight differences
in the total hectare between this period. This was not so in 1972 because Asa river was
not yet dammed which was the case in the period between 1986 and 2001 as shown in the
maps.
24
LAND USE LAND COVER MAP OF ILORIN IN 1986
655000 660000 665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000
N
950000 950000
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
LEGEND
930000
930000
NO CLASS
FARM LAND
WASTE LAND
BUILT UP LAND
925000 925000 FOREST LAND
WATER BODY
25
away from the city center following the concentric theory of city growth postulated by
Christaller (1933). Although the pattern seems to be uniform, there exist more growth
950000 950000 N
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
LEGEND
930000 930000
NO CLASS
FARM LAND
WASTE LAND
BUILT UP LAND
925000 925000 FOREST LAND
WATER BODY
towards the south western part of the city comprising of the Asa dam area, Adewole
Estate and Airport. Between 1986 and 2001 as shown in Map V, there exist drastic
reductions in the spatial expansion of the city. The only noticeable growths are on
the edges of the developed areas of 1986 built-up land. For the projected change as
shown in Map VI, the edges of built-up land seems to have been filled up with
developments by 2001 leaving the only noticeable developments to areas around the
26
city center. These therefore suggest that there might be a high level of compactness
in Ilorin by 2015.
On the other hand, looking at the nature of change under stability i.e. areas with no
change and instability- loss or gain by each class between 1972 and 1986 particularly in
the change in hectares as observable in table 4.1, stability seems to be a relative term as
no class is actually stable during this period except when observed from the percentage
change. Thus, between 1972 and 1986, farm land has a loss of 17% but gained by 7%
between 1986 and 2001. Waste land on the other hand gained by 16% between 1972 and
1986 but lost by 7% between 1986 and 2001. Built-up land increased i.e. gained by 8%
between 1972 and 1986 which is incomparable with the reduced increase of 1% between
1986 and 2001. Forest land gained by 10% between 1972 and 1986 but lost by 1%
between 1986 and 2001, while water body being arbitrarily exaggerated in 1972 could
not be compared with 1986 but there exist a relative stability in this class between 1986
and 2001 as evident in the 0% increase shown in the table.
27
OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO SHOW THE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN 1972/86
655000 660000 665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000
950000 950000
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
930000 930000
LEGEND
OTHER CLASSES
925000 925000 BUILT UP IN 1986
BUILT UP IN 1972
MAP IV. Derived from the overlay of 1972 and 1986 Land use land cover map
28
OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO SHOW THE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN 86/2001
N
950000 950000
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
930000
930000 LEGEND
NO CLASS
BUILT UP IN 2001
BUILT UP IN 1986
925000 925000
MAP V. Derived from the overlay of 1986 and 2001 Land use land cover map
29
4.5 Transition Probability Matrix
The transition probability matrix records the probability that each land cover
category will change to the other category. This matrix is produced by the multiplication
of each column in the transition probability matrix be the number of cells of
corresponding land use in the later image.
For the 5 by 5 matrix table presented below, the rows represent the older land
cover categories and the column represents the newer categories. Although this matrix
can be used as a direct input for specification of the prior probabilities in maximum
likelihood classification of the remotely sensed imagery, it was however used in
predicting land use land cover of 2015.
Row categories represent land use land cover classes in 2001 whilst column
categories represent 2015 classes. As seen from the table, farm land has a 0.1495
probability of remaining farm land and a 0.5553 of changing to waste land in 2015. This
therefore shows an undesirable change (reduction), with a probability of change which is
much higher than stability. Waste land during this period will likely maintain its position
as the highest class with a 0.5132 probability of remaining waste land in 2015.Built-up
land also has a probability as high as 0.5029 to remain as built-up land in 2015 which
signifies stability. On the other hand, the 0.4050 probability of change from forest land to
30
waste land shows that there might likely be a high level of instability in forest land during
this period. Water body which is the last class has a 0.0133 probability of remaining as
water body and a 0.4378 probability of changing to waste land; which may not however
be a true projection of this class except there is an occurrence of drought in the region.
The table above shows the statistic of land use land cover projection for
2015. Comparing the percentage representations of this table and that of table 4.1,
there exist similarities in the observed distribution particularly in 2001. This may
tend to suggest no change in the classes between 2001 and 2015, but a careful look
at the area in hectares between these two tables shows a change though meager.
Thus in table 4.6, waste land still maintains the highest position in the class whilst
water body retains its least position. Forest land takes up the next position,
followed by built-up land and finally, farm land. As seen in Map VI, there is likely
to be compactness in Ilorin by 2015 which signifies crowdedness.
31
PROJECTED LAND USE LAND COVER OF ILORIN IN 2015
655000 660000 665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000
950000 950000 N
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
LEGEND
930000
930000
NO CLASS
FARM LAND
WASTE LAND
925000
BUILT UP LAND
925000
FOREST LAND
WATER BODY
655000 660000 665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000
800000000 0 800000000 1600000000 Meters
MAP VI. Derived from the 1986 and 2001 land use land cover map
32
OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO SHOW THE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN 2001/15
950000
N
950000
945000 945000
940000 940000
935000 935000
930000 930000
LEGEND
NO CLASS
BUILT UP IN 2015
925000 925000
BUILT UP IN 2001
MAP VII. Derived from the overlay of 2001 and 2015 Land use land cover map
33
CHAPTER FIVE
¾ Indeed, between the period of 1986 and 2001, there has been a reduction
in the spatial expansion of Ilorin compared to the period between 1972
and 1986. There is a possibility of continual reduction in this state over
the next 14yrs. This may therefore suggest that the city has reduced in
producing functions that attracted migration into the area. Indeed, there
have been many defunct industries within this period. It is therefore
suggested here that Kwara State government should encourage investors
both local and foreign and more importantly, see how the defunct
industries will come up again.
¾ After the initial reduction in farm land between 1972 and 1986, the city
has witnessed a steady growth in this class and in deed, may continue in
this trend in 2001/2015. For this projection to be realistic, it suggested
here that a deliberate attempt should be made by the State government
to achieve this since this will lead to food security and more
importantly, it will be a source of revenue to the State.
34
¾ Waste land seems to be reducing between 1986 and 2001 and between
2001 and 2015 thus signifying a desirable change.
¾ Forest land has been steady in reduction between 1986 and 2001 and in
deed; this may likely be the trend 2001/2015. It will be in the good of
the State and in deed, the Nation as a whole if the moderate reduction in
forest land observed in-between 1986 and 2001 which is also projected
by 2015 is upheld.
35
the inability to accurately map out water body in 1972 due to the aforementioned
limitation, the five classes were distinctly produced for each study year but with
more emphasis on built-up land as it is a combination of anthropogenic activities
that make up this class; and indeed, it is one that affects the other classes. In
achieving this, Land Consumption Rate and Land Absorption Coefficient were
introduced into the research work. An attempt was also made at generating a
formula for estimating population growth using the recommended National
Population Commission 2.1% growth rate.
However, the result of the work shows a rapid growth in built-up land
between 1972 and 1986 while the periods between 1986 and 2001 witnessed a
reduction in this class. It was also observed that change by 2015 may likely follow
36
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Adeniyi P.O and Omojola A. (1999) Landuse landcover change evaluation in
Sokoto – Rima Basin of North Western Nigeria based on Archival of the
Environment (AARSE) on Geoinformation Technology Applications for
Resource and Environmental Management in Africa. Pp 143-172.
Arvind C. Pandy and M. S. Nathawat 2006. Land Use Land Cover Mapping
Through Digital Image Processing of Satellite Data – A case study from
Panchkula, Ambala and Yamunanagar Districts, Haryana State, India.
Anderson, et al. 1976. A Land Use and Land Cover Classification System for Usewith
Remote Sensor Data. Geological Survey Professional Paper No. 964, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. p. 28.
Daniel, et al, 2002 A comparison of Landuse and Landcover Change Detection Methods.
ASPRS-ACSM Annual Conference and FIG XXII Congress pg.2.
ERDAS, Inc. 1992. ERDAS Production Services Map State for Georgia DNR in
the Monitor, Vol. 4, No 1, ERDAS, Inc, Atlanta, GA.
37
EOSAT 1992. Landsat TM Classification International Georgia Wetlands in
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EOSAT 1994. EOSAT,s Statewide Purchase Plan Keeps South Carolina Residents
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MD.
ERDAS Field Guide. 1999. Earth Resources Data Analysis System. ERDAS Inc.
Atlanta, Georgia. p. 628.
Kwara State of Nigeria (1997) Kwara State Diary, Government press Ilorin.
Meyer, W.B. 1995. Past and Present Land-use and Land-cover in the U.S.A.
Consequences. p.24-33.
38
Olaniran, J.O (2002). Rainfall Anomalies in Nigeria: The contemporary
Understanding. 55th inaugural lecture, University press Ilorin.
Oyegun, R.O (1983). Water Resources in Kwara State. Matanmi and Sons printing
and publishing Co. Ltd. Ilorin.
Oyegun R.O (1985), “The Use and Waste of Water in a Third World City”
GeoJornal, Reidel Publishing Company, 10.2,205 – 210.
Riebsame, W.E., Meyer, W.B., and Turner, B.L. II. 1994. Modeling Land-use and
Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change. Climate Change. Vol. 28.
p. 45.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1999. The Landsat Satellite System Link, USGS on the
World Wide Web. URL: http://landsat7.usgs.gov/landsat_sat.html.
11/10/99.
39
University of Ilorin, Department of Geography. (1981) Ilorin Atlas; Ilorin
University press
Wilkie, D.S., and Finn, J.T. 1996. Remote Sensing Imagery for Natural Resources
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Yeates, M and Garner, B. (1976). The North American City, Harper and Row Pub.
New York.
40
45000
41436.7713
40000
35000
30000
FARM LAND
HECTARES
24376.2723
25000 WASTE LAND
BUILT_UP LAND
20000 FOREST LAND
16874.6562
WATER BODY
15000
11063.4948
10000
5000
2198.2734
0
CATEGORIES
41
60000
55561.149
50000
40000
FARM LAND
WASTE LAND
HECTARES
9702.8136
10000 7965.5733
1326.8916
0
CATEGORIES
42
60000
50317.263
50000
WASTE LAND
30000 BUILT_UP LAND
FOREST LAND
19960.2315 WATER BODIES
20000
14068.4949
10815.921
10000
787.5576
0
CATEGORIES
43
50000 47432.4759
45000
40000
35000
FARM LAND
30000
HECTARES
WASTE LAND
25000 BUILT_UP LAND
20397.8718
FOREST LAND
20000 16583.5458 WATER BODY
15000
11026.4562
10000
5000
509.1183
0
CATEGORIES
44