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Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2010-2011

July 21, 2010

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 from Simba Information is the
premier resource for expert analysis of the highly competitive $8 billion-plus PreK-12
school market.

Challenging market conditions make this report an essential tool for understanding the
dynamics that impact the types of instructional materials and services most in demand
in the school market.

The most up-to-date business information and market trends in this report provide a
complete view of the U.S. school market—all available from Simba Information in a
single-source format in this completely updated report.

A particular focus of this all new report is how technology is—or is not—being
incorporated in the school markets and how it is changing business models of
publishers and providers of instructional and ancillary services.

Topics in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 include:

Market size by media segment: textbooks, courseware, supplemental materials,

tests, manipulatives, magazines, video and trade books,
Drivers of segment growth,
Impact of emergent technologies, including digital textbooks,
Simba Information’s exclusive Textbook Adoption Scorecard,
Leading publishers by market segment,
Analysis of landscape metrics: funding, policy and enrollment,
The impact of mergers, acquisitions and partnerships,
Market segment projections through 2013,
Detailed profiles of leading providers of instructional materials and services.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market Forecast 2010-2011 is essential market and
business intelligence for publishers, technology providers, editors, marketers, business
development, sales and investment professionals who need to understand the
strategies driving the educational publishing industry currently and in the coming years.
Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure

Introduction
Growth Momentum Stalls
IM Sales Drop in 2009; Improvement Expected in 2010
As Largest Category, Textbooks Takes Biggest Hit
Print Supplements Show Resilience
Growth for State Tests Flattens
Tests Migrating Online
Courseware Generates Growth, Modular Software Flattens
Video Shows Strong Growth
Manipulatives Remain Appealing
Books and Periodicals
Electronic Media Share Bumps up in 2010
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Leads Simba’s PreK-12 Publisher Index
HMH, Pearson & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Publishing
Archipelago, AEC and Carnegie Sees Fastest Growth
Operating Performance Captures the Spotlight

Table 1.1: 5-Year Sales Trends, 2005-2009

Table 1.2: Sales of Print and Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School
Market, 2008-2010P
Table 1.3: Market Share of Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010P
Table 1.4: Simba Information’s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index, 2008 vs. 2009 vs.
2010P
Table 1.5: Publisher Operating Performance Index, 2009 vs. 2008

Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics

Introduction
Public Schools Educate Almost 90% of Students
Public Enrollment vs. Private Enrollment
Fastest-Growing States for K-12 Enrollment
Fastest-Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment
Schools Growing More Diverse
More Special Needs Students in Schools
Progress in State PreK Slowed
17% of All Public Schools Considered High Poverty Schools
Homeschool Enrollment Up
Online Course Enrollment Expected to Grow
 Table 2.1: Total Public Projected PreK-12 Enrollment, 2008P-2019P
Table 2.2: States Experiencing Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010 vs.
2008-2009
Table 2.3: Projected Public School 2019 Enrollment by State with % change from
2007
Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2009-2010
Table 2.5: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students
Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students
Table 2.7: Preschool Enrollment & Est. Spending per Child, 2008-2009
Table 2.8: Percentage of High Poverty Schools by State, 2007

Chapter 3: Funding
Introduction
2011 Proposed Budget Calls for Funding Increase
Program Consolidation Proposed
Title I Helps Low-Achieving Students in High Poverty Areas
Race-To-The-Top’s First Winners are Delaware and Tennessee
School Improvement Grants Evolve to School Turnaround
Tapping Special Education Funding
Longitudinal Data System to Expand
Stimulus Dollars Still Available
Funding at the State Level
Average State Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials Is $264

Table 3.1: Federal Education Programs Consolidated/Renamed for FY

Table 3.2: Dept. of Education Discretionary Spending FY2009-2011P
Table 3.3: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2009-2011P
Table 3.4: 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY2009
Table 3.5: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2009-2011E
Table 3.6: Federal Grants to States for Special Education, FY2011P
Table 3.7: Statewide Data System Grants, ARRA2009
Table 3.8: Percent of Stimulus Money Remaining to be Spent by State
Table 3.9: Fiscal 2011 Shortfalls as a Percent of Fiscal 2010 Budget
Table 3.10: Instructional Materials Expenditures by State, 2007-2008

Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions

Introduction
Economy Shears Textbook Sales in 2009
Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales
Textbook Market: Adoption States and Open Territories
Elementary Sales Outpace Secondary Sales in 2008
Hopes were Dashed in 2009
California Seeks Free Digital Books
Pearson Parlays K-5 Sales Strength to Lead 2009 Publisher Scorecard
Pearson Titles Top K-5, HMH, McGraw-Hill Split 6-8 Top Spot
 Outlook Texas and Florida Lead Opportunity in 2010
South Carolina Cancels Math, Language Arts Adoption
Indiana Advises Districts to Wait
Houghton Mifflin Looks to Have Edge in Florida
Commanding Demand in Texas Reading for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
2011 and Beyond
More Twists and Turns in Texas
Encouragement for Digital Materials

Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2008
vs. 2009
Table 4.2: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks, 2008
Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks, 2008
Table 4.4: Basal Sales, Adoption States vs. Open Territories, 2004-2009
Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Textbook Sales, 2008 Top 10 States
Table 4.6: Textbook Adoption States
Table 4.7: Simba Information’s Adoption Scorecard, 2009
Table 4.8: Simba’s Best-Selling Textbook Series, 2009
Table 4.9: Texas K-12 Reading/Literature Adoption, 2010

Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials

Introduction
Schools Equipped for Electronic Supplementals
Software Sales Up
Video Increasingly Integrated into Instruction
Print Supplemental Still a Substantial Market
Trade Books and Magazines Maintain Niche
Interest in Hands-On Learning Helps Manipulatives Market
Scholastic Top Supplemental Publisher List
Future of Supplementals
Variety of Providers Offer Content Management
Competition from Teacher-Generated Curriculum Resources

Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12

School Market, 2008-2010P
Table 5.2: Simba Information’s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2008-20010P

Chapter 6: Trends and Marketing

Introduction
Momentum for Common Core State Standards Shifts to Adoption
Publishers Could Benefit from Common Core Goals
Kentucky Leads States in Adopting Common Standards
Pearson, Montgomery County, Md., Partner for Curriculum Initiative
Public/Private Business Model
Appeal to Other Districts
Half of Schools Could Offer Distance Learning by 2011-2012
 Online Courses Impact Materials Market
Common Testing Blossoms
High School Only
Evolving Marketing Strategies
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Expands Virtual Sampling in K-12
Characteristics and Initiatives
Pearson Teams with Newark for New Purchasing System
Global Partnership Schools Adds Associates, Begins Work in Schools
At Work in Baltimore and Washington
McGraw-Hill Vision: Solutions Partner

Table 6.1: Key Points in Core Standards

Table 6.2: Project North Star At-a-Glance
Table 6.3: Main Reasons Schools Offer Online Courses

Chapter 7: Outlook and Forecast

Introduction
PreK-12 Market Growth Slows

Table 7.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials used in U.S. Classrooms
, 2009-2013

Company Profiles
American Education Corp.
Archipelago Learning
Cambium Learning Group
Carnegie Learning Inc.
EMC/Paradigm (Wicks Educational Publishing)
Goodheart-Willcox
Haights Cross Communications
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
Inspiration Software
K12 Inc.
McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos.)
Pearson Education
Peoples Education
Plato Learning
Renaissance Learning
Scantron Corp.
Scholastic Corp.
School Specialty
Scientific Learning Corp.
Weekly Reader (Reader’s Digest Association)

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