First report on Ethiopia farm household survey for the GEF regional project on

impacts of climate change on agriculture using the Ricardian approach

1. Introduction
Agriculture remains by far the most important sector in the Ethiopian economy for the
following reasons: (i) It directly supports about 85% of the population in terms of
employment and livelihood; (ii) It contributes about 50% of the country’s gross domestic
product (GDP); (iii) It generates about 90% of the export earnings; and (iv) It supplies
around 70% of the raw material requirement of ago-based domestic industries (MEDaC,
1999). Agriculture is also the major source of food for the population and hence the prime
contributing sector to food security. In addition agriculture is expected to play a key role
in generating surplus capital to speed up the overall socio-economic development of the
country.
Ethiopia has a total land area of about 112.3 million hectares (CSA, 1998). Out of the total
land area about 16.4 million-hectare are suitable for the production of annual and
perennial crops. Of the estimated arable land about 8 million-hectares is used annually for
rain-fed crops. The country has a population of about 61.7 million (National Bank of
Ethiopia 1999) with a growth rate of about 3.3%. At the present growth rate the population
is expected to increase to about 129.1 million by the year 2030.
According to MEDaC, crop production is estimated to contribute on average about 60%,
livestock accounts around 27% and forestry and other sub-sectors around 13% of the total
agricultural value.
Small-scale farmers who are dependent on low input and low output rain-fed mixed
farming with traditional technologies dominate the agriculture sector. The present
government of Ethiopia has given top priority to the agricultural sector and has taken a
number of steps to increase productivity in this sector.
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The high dependence of the country on agriculture, which is very sensitive to existing
climate variability, is a cause for concern, since climate variability would change as a
result of the expected climate change. This agro ecology based country study, as part of
the GEF climate Change and agriculture study in Africa, intends to provide empirical
evidence on the role that climate plays in Ethiopian agriculture today and how that might
change with further adverse changes in the climate.
Ethiopia has diverse agro ecologies, which enable the production of different crops and
livestock. A study based on agro ecological features helps to describe problems associated
with a given agro ecology and enable to suggest possible solutions.
2. Agro ecological features of Ethiopia
Agro ecological zones in Ethiopia are defined based on temperature and moisture regimes
(MOA, 2000). According to MOA (2000) Ethiopia has 30 agro ecological zones these are
Table 1. Agro ecological zones and their area coverage
No Agro ecological zone Share of the total area of
land (%)
1 warm_moist 16.74
2 warm_sub humid 16.52
3 warm_humid 8.07
4 Warm sub moist 6.94
5 warm_semi_ 4.22
6 tepid_moist 2.10
7 tepid_sub_humid 6.16
8 tepid_sub_humid 1.84
9 tepid_sub moist 10.42
10 tepid_humid 9.87
11 Tepid per humid 5.70
12 hot_semi_arid 0.33
13 warm_arid 0.65
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14 cool_sub_moist 0.23
15 cool_moist 0.10
16 cool_sub_humid 1.10
17 cool_humid 1.93
18 cold_sub_humid 1.87
19 cold_humid 0.06
20 very_cold 0.12
21 cold_moist 0.03
22 cool_per_humid 0.07
23 hot_sub_humid 1.26
24 hot_humid 2.33
25 cold_per_humid 0.37
26 very_cold 0.16
27 hot_moist 0.11
28 hot_sub_moist 0.36
29 hot_per_humid 0.33
30 warm_sub_humid 0.02
3. Crop Production
The existence of diverse agro-ecological conditions enables Ethiopia to grow a large
variety of crops including cereals (teff , maize, sorghum, wheat, barley, millet, oats, etc),
pulses (horse beans, field peas, lentils, chick-peas, haricot beans, vetch, etc), oil seeds
(linseed, niger-seed, fenugreek, rapeseed, sunflower, castor bean, groundnuts, etc), spices
& herbs (pepper, garlic, ginger, mustard, etc), stimulants (coffee, tea, chat, tobacco, etc),
fruits(banana, orange, grape, papaya, lemon, menderin, apple, pineapple, mango, avocado,
etc), sugarcane, fibres (cotton, sisal, etc), vegetables (onion, tomato, carrot, cabbage, etc),
root and tuber crops (potato, enset, sweet- potatoes, beets, yams, etc).
Rain-fed crop production is the basis of all subsistence farming in most parts of the country
and accounts for more than 95% for the land area cultivated annually. In general, mixed type
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of farming and both animal and crop production are important. A typical farming household
in the semi-arid areas owns just a small portion of land (generally less than 1 ha) on which
crops are produced and which also partially supports variable numbers of cattle, goats,
donkeys, and sheep.
Cereals, pulses, oil crops and other field crops dominate the country’s agriculture. The main
field crops grown in different agroecologies in the country are indicated in Table 1. In
addition, oats, lentil, nigerseed, cow peas, safflower, linseed are also grown. The different
crops and cropping systems in the different landscape and agroecological zones are also
presented in Table 1 and Map 1. A wide range of both biotic and abiotic stresses constrains
field crops production. The main abiotic constraints include drought, low soil fertility, water
logging, and low level of technology. The major biotic constraints include weeds, insects and
disease.
The production of crops is dominated by small scale subsistence farmers (about 8 million
peasant households). These smallscale farmers on average account for 95% of the total
area under crop and for more than 90% of the total agricultural output. Most of the food
crops (94%) and coffee (98%)are produced by small-scale farmers, while the remaining
6% of food crops and 2% of coffee is generated from commercial farms (state and
private). Most farmers still practice traditional way of farming i.e. ploughing the land
with oxen-drawn wooden ploughs with steel pikes, minimal application of of fertiliser
and pesticide and low use of improved seeds.
The 1994 agricultural sample survey indicates that the average yield of all crops at the
national level was about 10 quintals per hectare while the average yield of cereals, pulses
and other crops was about ten, nine and three quintals per hectare respectively (CSA,
1995). Crop production has performed poorly for the last three and half decades. Food
grain per capita had registered a downward trend for several years. The country, which
was once self-sufficient in food production and a net exporter of food grains, has since
1981/82 become a net grain importer (MEDaC, 1999).
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Declining farm size and subsistence farming because of population growth, land
degradation due to inappropriate use of land such as cultivation of steep slops, over
cultivation, overgrazing, devegetation (not clear), recurrent drought and inappropriate
polices, are the major causes for the poor performance of crop production. Other issues
and factors that contribute to the low productivity of crop production include tenure
insecurity, weak agricultural research and extension services, lack of agricultural
marketing, inadequate transport network, low use of fertilisers, improved seeds and
pesticide as well as the use of old traditional farm implements.
4. Livestock
Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the tenth largest in the world.
Livestock is an integral part of the farming systems in the country. It is the source of many
social and economic values such as food, draught power, fuel, cash income, security and
investment in both the highlands and the lowlands/pastoral farming systems.
The livestock sector contributes approximately 12 to 15% to total GDP and about 25 to
30% to the agricultural GDP (MEDaC, 1999). It is also a major source of foreign
exchange second only to coffee.
In general the livestock resource of the country is characterised by low productivity.
Average yields per animal slaughtered or milked are estimated at 110 kg of beef, 10 kg of
mutton and 213 kg of cow’s milk. At present the per capita consumption of milk and meat
is estimated to be 16 kg and 10 kg per annum respectively. As compared to its neighbours,
Ethiopia has the lowest consumption rates of these two products.
Inadequate food and nutrition, low level of veterinary care, high occurrence of diseases,
poor genetic structure, inadequate budget allocation, limited infrastructure, limited
research on livestock, land tenure and recurrent drought are the main constraints in this
sub-sector (Befekadu, et al, 1999/2000).
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5 Adaptation measures
In response to climate change and other environmental factors farmers have developed
very complex production systems and adaptation strategies and copping mechanisms.
Farmers in Ethiopia have developed what one may call “ Survival Oriented Agriculture”.
Farmers, for example, have resorted to crop association of varying complexity rather than
monocropping with a view to minimizing risks. Multiple cropping systems usually reflect
farmers multiple objectives, the most important been the need to survive. The complexity
of the system both in time and space confers both biological and social and economic
advantages.
Multiple cropping systems includes mixed and intercropping. The common intercrop
mixture includes; cereal-legume (sorghum-kidney bean, maize-chickpea etc), cereal-cereal
mixture (wheat-barley), legume-legume (peas-faba bean), and cereal with oil crops (tefsesame,
tef-safflower) are widely practiced in different parts of the country. The crops
may be planted at the same time or usually at different dates adding to the complexity.
These cropping systems provide a better canopy coverage and conserve both soil and
water, protect the natural resource base and minimize the risk of crop failure or low crop
yield, and so provide a more sustainable basis for crop production over a long-term.
In most important crop growing areas of the country the rainfall pattern is bimodal
(biannual). The first small rains (Belg) occur during March-April and are generally not
sufficient for crop production. They are used mainly for land preparation. The main cropgrowing
season occurs during the June-September rainfall period. Farmers in these areas
practice tillage immediately after harvest when the soil is still wet either from residual
moisture left over from the previous season or from early event rainfall. This facilitates
soil moisture conservation (and conserve the early belg rains), enhances the
decomposition of the leftover stables and leads to improved soil fertility and water holding
capacity of the soil. If there is a risk of weeds becoming established before the crop,
farmers’ practice another cultivation to clean the weed before planting. This practice
enables farmers to spread labour, minimize the risk of water stress by increasing soil water
and control weeds.
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In the Kobo (district) for example, the belg rains are much lighter and less reliable than
the kremt rains. Traditionally, a late maturing variety local sorghum variety is planted late
in the belg and if conditions are favourable the planted crop enters the kiremt well
established. If the dry spell between the belg and kiremt rains is prolonged due to the late
onset of the kiremt rains then the sorghum field is re-cultivated and an early maturing crop
such as tef is planted. Farmers are also shifting from long cycle crops, which do not fit the
existing short growing season to early maturing drought resistant crop varieties to
accommodate climate variability.
Diversion of run-off into the field after heavy storms is also a traditional practice, which is
used to recharge soil moisture particularly on flat plains in the lowland areas of many
Semi-arid tropics to ensure successful stand establishment and increase crop production
particularly in the dry land areas of Ethiopia. These are some of the important adaptation
strategies Ethiopian farmers have developed in response to climate variability.
In Ethiopia currently the country is facing severe drought problems resulting in low
harvest or total crop failure and loss of both human and livestock life. The drought
frequency has increased from 1 in 10 years to almost 1 in every 3 years due probably to
climate and other environmental changes. The causes and effects of climate change and its
effects on agriculture and natural resource should be studied to develop appropriate
strategies to mitigate these problems. It is also understood that the risk associated with
climate change lie in the interaction of several systems with many variables that must be
collectively considered. Agriculture including crop production, animal husbandry, forest
and fisheries can be defined as one of the system and climate the other. If these systems
were treated independently, this would lead to an approach, which is too fragmentary. It is
now known that human activities can affect climate, one of the component of the
environment. Climate in turn affects agriculture, the source of all food consumed by
human beings and domestic animals. It must be considered further that climate may not be
the only system changing, but human societies and agriculture are also developing trends
and constraints of their own, which climate change impact studies must take into
consideration.
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Ethiopia is facing threats from natural degradation, which are leading to drought
problems, loss of biodiversity, desertification and food insecurity. Within the next few
decades, the world must learn to produce twice as much food on less land than it now
cultivates. The task of doubling production on additional lands would have been difficult
enough, but now producers everywhere are being asked to produce more on less on the
same amount of land and to do so without compromising the sustainability of production.
To complicate matters further, the future is now blurred by the spectre of climate change
and the risk and uncertainty it adds to the planning process.
The traditional approaches to studying agricultural system will no longer be adequate.
Systems modelling with all its shortcomings provide an alternative way to address the
complex ways in which humans interact with the environment, and to ensure that these
interactions can continue on a sustainable basis indefinitely. This project is appropriate
and timely for Ethiopia. It would be very useful for the planning process in the country’s
agricultural sector.
6. Objectives of the project
The overall objective of the study is to improve the understanding of the physical and
economic impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and identify appropriate
adaptation options. The targeted research will also contribute towards regional
understanding of the nature of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector.
The specific objectives of the study are
• To develop analytical methods and procedures for assessing the economic and
physical impact of climate change on agriculture in Ethiopia, to estimate how
climate affects the current agricultural systems, and to project how climate change
might affect this system in the future
• To enhance the capacity of national experts and policy makers through training
activities that would enable them to conduct the country studies on the impacts of
climate change on agriculture.
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• To apply different analytical tools to estimate the expected adverse impacts on
agriculture, and to identify what adaptation measures are likely to be sustainable
and cost-effective countermeasures in Ethiopia.
• To raise awareness among policy makers in Ethiopia, with respect to the need to
address climate change issues and adaptation when designing policies for
sustainable rural development at national as well as regional levels.
• To improve national assessment methodologies of impact of climate change and
effectiveness of adaptation options in agriculture.
• To help policy makers and government agencies evaluate intervention policies in
the agriculture sector.
• To promote the exchange of data and experience among participating countries
7. Methodology
The Ricardian (Cross Sectional Approach) will be applied to analyse the economic impact
of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture. The Ricardian approach explores how net
revenues change across climate zones (Mendelsohn, Dinar and Sanghi, 2001;Mendelson,
et al 2000).
Data: Data will be collected by using the questionnaire already developed.
Data sources
Interviewing farmers based on the questionnaires already developed.
Sampling methods
The sample design for Ethiopia is based on the agro ecological features of Ethiopia. Agro
ecological zones are natural regions characterized by a fairly homogeneous climate and
physiography (relief, soils, vegetation, and animal species) that typifies the area. Ethiopia
is divided in to 30 agro ecological zones (MOA 2000).
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Out of the 30-agro ecological zones, 8 agro ecological zones, representing more than 80 %
of the country are selected for this study.
1. The total number of farmers for this survey is 1000.
2. Total number of districts for the survey 50. The basis for selection of 50 districts is
the range (30-60) given by your sampling guidelines.
3. Total of 8 agro ecological zones, based on area coverage.
4. Each of the selected agro ecologies covers more than 5 % of the total area of
Ethiopia. The more the area of a given agro ecological zone, the more the number
of districts selected.
Table 2: agro ecological zones and corresponding number of districts.
Number Agro ecology % of land area1 Number of
districts
1 Warm moist 16.74 10
2 Warm sub humid 16.52 10
3 Warm humid 8.07 5
4 Warm sub moist 6.94 4
5 Tepid sub humid 6.16 4
6 Tepid sub moist 10.42 7
7 Tepid humid 9.87 6
8 Tepid per humid 5.70 4
Total 80.42 50
4 . A total of four peasant associations will be selected from each district. There are
about 15 to 35 peasant associations in a given district. The fact that we have 1000
farmers and 50 districts led us make the number of households per district to be
1000/50= 20. Given 20 households per district, four peasant associations and five
households from each peasant associations are believed to represent the district very
well.
1
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5 Currently after investigating the distribution of household's size, we found that the
majority (about 90%) of households in Ethiopia are small-scale farmers. Thus,
except for state farms, we concluded to consider only small-scale farmers. We will
include (based on data availability) the state farms on tope of the 1000 small-scale
farmers.
6 Agro ecological zones and districts are selected purposively. First, a list of agro
ecological zones with percent of area covered by that specific agro ecological zone
was obtained. Based on this information, agro-ecologies covering more than 5 %
of the total area of the country were selected. This procedure makes the selection
of agroecologies purposive. Additionally, some districts were found to fall in more
than one agro ecological zones, with different percentage of land falling in each
agro ecologies. In this case, a district is selected when it has the highest area of
land in a specific agro ecology we selected. Thus this makes the selection of
districts to be purposive.
7 Peasant associations and households from every district will be selected randomly.
Table 2: Number of peasant associations and households in each agro- ecological
zone.
Number Agro ecology No of peasant
associations
No .of households
1 Warm moist 40 200
2 Warm sub humid 40 200
3 War humid 20 100
4 Warm sub moist 16 80
5 Tepid sub humid 16 80
6 Tepid sub moist 28 140
7 Tepid humid 24 120
8 Tepid per humid 16 80
Total 200 1000
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Table 3. Numbers of large medium and small-scale farms
Number Agro ecology No .of households Size of farmers
Large Medium Small
1 Warm moist 200
--
200
2 Warm sub humid 200
--
200
3 Warm humid 100 - - 100
4 Warm sub moist 80 - - 80
5 Tepid sub humid 80
-
80
6 Tepid sub moist 140
--
140
7 Tepid humid 120 - - 120
8 Tepid per humid 80 - - 80
Total 1000 - - 1000
Table 4. Districts selected from each agro ecological zones
Number Agro ecology Districts Code
1 Warm moist Kafta-Humera
Quara
Alefa
Dangur
Guba
Sherkole
Wembera
Gura Demole
Metema
ka 31
qu 32
al 33
da 34
gu 35
sh 36
we 37
gu 38
me 40
2 Warm sub humid Assosa
Yaso
Bokie
Daro Lebbu
Dibatie
Menana Harena B
Meda Welabu
Gelana Abaya
Seweina
as 41
ya 43
bo 44
da 45
di 46
me 47
me 48
gev49
se 50
3 Warm humid Hamer Bena
Serma
Sheko
Gog
hb 01
se 02
sh 03
go 04
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Number Agro ecology Districts Code
Begi (2) be 05
4 Warm sub moist Arero
Legehida
Raytu
ar 07
le 08
ra 09
5 Tepid sub humid Hintalo-Wajirat
Enderta
Degua Tembien
Atsbi-Wenberta
hi 10
en 11
dt 12
aw 13
6 Tepid sub moist Lake Tana
Achefer
Dera
Bahir Dar
Estie
Simada
Gida Kiremu
la 14
ac 15
de 16
ba 17
es 18
si 19
gi 20
7 Tepid humid Odo Shakisso
Hagere Mariam
Boloso Sorie
Ginir
Guduru
od 22
ha 23
bo 24
gi 25
gu 26
8 Tepid per humid Gonsebo
Chena
Seka Chekorsa
Gera
go 27
ch 28
se 29
ge 30
Table 5: Districts by Region and Zone
No Region Zone District
1 Amhara North Gonder Quara
North Gonder Alefa
West Gojam Achefer
North Shoa Dera
West Gojam Bahirdar
South Gonder Simada
South Gonder Estie
North Gonder Metema
West Gojam Lake Tana
North Gonder Humere
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No Region Zone District
2 Tigray West Tigray Kefta Humera
South Tigray Hintelo Wajrat
South Tigray Enderta
Central Tigray Degua Tembein
Eastern Tigray Atsbay Wenberta
3 Oromia Bale Gura Demelo
West Hararge Bokie
West Hararge Daro Lebu
Bale Mena Harena
Bale Mede Welabu
Borena Gelane Abeya
Bale Seweina
Borena Arero
Bale Legehida
Bale Raitu
Borena Oddo Shakiso
Borena Hagere Mriam
Bale Ginir
East Wollega Guduru
Bale Genesebo
Jimma Gera
Jimma Seka Chekorsa
4 Southern Region South Omo Hamer
Bench Maji Serma
Bench Maji Bena
Bench Maji Sheko
Kefich Shekicho Chena
North Omo Balso Sorie
5 Beneshangul Gumuz Metekel Dangur
Metekel Guba
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No Region Zone District
Asosa Sherkole
Metekel Wembera
Asosa Asosa
Asosa Bambesi
Asosa Yaso
Metekel Dibati
6 Somali** Jijiga Jijiga
Fiq Fiq
Afar** Zone 2 Zone 2*
Zone 1 Zone 1*
*A district in that zone will be selected
** For Somali and Afar regions (eastern Ethiopia regions), agro ecological zone
delineation at district level has not been done. As pastoralists dominate both Afar and
Somali regions, four districts from the south western, which are also dominated by
pastoralists have been replaced by districts from Afar and Somali based on the recently
given.
Thus, the eastern parts of the country are included based on the comments given
recently to the survey design of Ethiopia. Others, which we might encounter, will be
corrected in the course of action.
Thus, the sample is representative in terms of agricultural activities in the country and
the different agro- ecological zones. More over, we will do more fine-tuning when we
approach the research centres in different regions that collaborate with us in our
surveys.
8. Conclusions
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The survey design has been prepared and districts representing diverse agro ecological
zones of the country were selected. So far, the survey design has been revised and
submitted to CEEPA, still there is no response on budget release for the survey.
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