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ITC
Reiterate BUY; current weakness an opportunity
February 03, 2011 Least impacted by current headwinds faced by India Consumer peers: We
believe ITC is least vulnerable to the current key head‐winds faced by India
Company Update
Gautam Duggad Consumer sector, viz. rising competition and input cost inflation. Raw materials
gautamduggad@plindia.com constitute less than 10% of its Cig business which forms ~81% of its consol EBIT.
+91‐22‐66322233
This combined with ITC’s dominant pricing power in Cig ensures protection from
raw material inflation. ITC also enjoys twin advantages of strongest distribution
network and dominant market share of ~80% in a sector where advertising is
banned; thus, insulting it from competitive head‐winds unlike its peers in HPC
categories.
Rating BUY
Price Rs160 Current weakness a good buying opportunity: In view of the impending uncertainty
Target Price Rs208 around excise hike in the forthcoming budget, ITC has corrected 12% off the highs.
Implied Upside 30.0% Historically, from November to February, ITC has underperformed the market 7 out
Sensex 18,449 of 11 times (table on next page) owing to concerns on excise duty hike in budget.
(Prices as on February 03, 2011) We believe this is a good buying opportunity as ITC has amply proven the resilience
of its Cigarette business in the past. For FY05‐FY10, ITC’s Cig EBIT has grown at
Trading data CAGR of 16.9% as against volume growth CAGR of 3.7%. Even post the 22% price
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,220.7 hikes in FY08 post VAT, it lost 0.9% volumes and then in FY09, despite vacation non‐
Shares o/s (m) 7,636.4 filters (which used to contribute 20% of volumes), ITC lost just 3% volumes.
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 1351.3
~5% pre‐budet price hikes taken in Cig: ITC has already taken ~5‐6% pre‐
emptive price hikes in January, ahead of budget, in its Cig portfolio. This, we
Major shareholders
believe, prepares ITC for another double‐digit excise duty hike in FY12e budget.
Promoters 0.00% Apart from Cig, other businesses viz, Paper (sustained improvement in
Foreign 14.15% profitability), Agri (sustainable ~10‐12% EBIT margins) as well as non‐Cig FMCG
Domestic Inst. 36.11% (reduction in EBIT losses), too, are performing well. We reiterate ITC as our top
Public & Other 49.74% pick with a 12‐month target price of Rs208.
Key financials (Y/e March) 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenues (Rs m) 191,359 223,020 255,254 286,917
Stock Performance
Growth (%) 15.6 16.5 14.5 12.4
(%) 1M 6M 12M
EBITDA (Rs m) 63,241 75,208 87,282 100,002
Absolute (8.6) 3.5 29.3
PAT (Rs m) 41,619 50,794 58,411 66,970
Relative 1.7 1.7 17.4
EPS (Rs) 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.8
Growth (%) 25.4 22.0 15.0 14.7
Net DPS (Rs) 5.0 2.9 3.7 4.2
Price Performance (RIC: ITC.BO, BB: ITC IN)
Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs)
200
Profitability & Valuation 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
150 EBITDA margin (%) 33.0 33.7 34.2 34.9
RoE (%) 29.2 32.0 31.5 31.4
100
RoCE (%) 29.2 31.7 31.2 31.2
50 EV / sales (x) 6.1 5.2 4.5 4.0
EV / EBITDA (x) 18.4 15.6 13.3 11.4
0
PE (x) 29.3 24.0 20.9 18.2
Feb‐10
Feb‐11
Dec‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Apr‐10
ITC underperformed index 7 out of 11 times since 2000
1st November till budget
Year Budget Date Out/under performance Budget Day Remarks
Sensex ITC
FY00‐01 29‐2‐2000 31.7% 24.2% ‐7.5% 0.3% 5% excise increase
FY01‐02 28‐2‐2001 7.4% 6.5% ‐0.9% ‐6.2% 15‐17% excise increase
FY02‐03 28‐2‐2002 21.5% ‐1.0% ‐22.5% 2.2% No action
FY03‐04 28‐2‐2003 11.1% 3.6% ‐7.5% 1.1% No action
FY04‐05 8‐ 7‐ 2004* 0.4% 8.7% 8.3% 0.9% Nominal 2‐3% excise increase
FY05‐06 28‐2‐2005 15.2% 18.6% 3.4% 0.5% 8‐10% excise increase
FY06‐07 28‐2‐2006 29.4% 36.9% 7.5% 3.8% 5% excise increase
FY07‐08 28‐2‐2007 3.4% ‐13.4% ‐16.8% 3.9% VAT implemented
FY08‐09 29‐2‐2008 ‐9.6% 17.8% 27.4% 0.3% Excise for non Filters increased by 2.4‐5 times
FY09‐10 6‐ 7‐ 2009* 0.2% ‐1.3% ‐1.4% 3.1% No action
FY10‐11 26‐2‐2010 2.3% ‐2.8% ‐5.1% ‐6.2% Excise duties hiked by 8‐18%
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research * price performance is one month prior to budget
Details of excise increase over the years
Excise per 1000 sticks FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 5 year CAGR
Filter
>85mm 1780 1960 2058 2181 2181 2181 2363 3.8%
King (75‐85mm) 1450 1595 1675 1759 1759 1759 1959 4.2%
Long (70‐75mm) 1090 1200 1260 1323 1323 1323 1473 4.2%
Regular(<70mm) 670 740 777 819 819 819 969 5.5%
<60 (newly introduced) 669
Non Filter
Plains (60‐70mm) 450 495 520 551 1323 1323 1473 24.4%
Micros (<60mm) 135 150 158 168 819 819 669 34.9%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Volume growth suffered marginally despite heavy price increase in FY08 and FY09
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
‐5.0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
February 03, 2011 2
ITC
5‐year annual excise increase in Cig has been in line with inflation
6.0% 5.5%
5.0%
4.18% 4.20%
3.8%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Kings Extra large Long (70‐75mm) King (75‐85mm) Regular(<70mm)
(>85mm)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Cig business performance was solid over FY06‐10 despite harsh policy measures
Reiterate as top pick with target price of Rs208
Multiple (EV/ EBITDA) EBITDA (FY123E) Contribution to value of ITC (Rs m) (Rs/ share)
Cigarettes 15 76,481 1,177,803 154
FMCG‐Others (EV/Sales) 2 58,038 116,075 15
Hotels 15 5,734 86,007 11
Agri business 8 5,969 47,749 6
Paper 8 13,177 105,413 14
Net (debt)/ cash 57,833 8
Total value per share 1,590,881 208
Current stock price (Rs) 160
Upside/ (Downside) % 30.0%
Source: PL Research
February 03, 2011 3
ITC
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Net Revenue 191,359 223,020
255,254 286,917 Shareholder's Funds 144,583 172,586 198,540 228,232
Raw Material Expenses 69,720 83,003
98,415 112,891 Total Debt 1,108 1,008 908 808
Gross Profit 121,639 140,017 156,839 174,026 Other Liabilities 9,069 8,100 6,938 5,596
Employee Cost 14,640 16,950 18,378 19,797 Total Liabilities 154,760 181,694 206,385 234,636
Other Expenses 43,758 47,860 51,178 54,227 Net Fixed Assets 97,976 105,782 113,315 121,826
EBITDA 63,241 75,208 87,282 100,002 Goodwill — — — —
Depr. & Amortization 6,439 6,911 7,515 8,191 Investments 4,550 5,050 5,550 6,050
Net Interest 534 317 287 257 Net Current Assets 52,233 70,860 87,519 106,759
Other Income 6,189 6,814 7,706 8,637 Cash & Equivalents 58,941 51,689 64,682 80,112
Profit before Tax 62,457 74,793 87,186 100,190 Other Current Assets 76,531 88,550 100,817 113,481
Total Tax 20,349 23,999 28,775 33,220 Current Liabilities 83,239 69,379 77,981 86,834
Profit after Tax 42,108 50,794 58,411 66,970 Other Assets 2 2 2 2
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 488 — — — Total Assets 154,760 181,694 206,385 234,636
Adj. PAT 41,619 50,794 58,411 66,970
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 7,636.4 7,636.4 7,636.4 7,636.4
EPS (Rs.) 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.8
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11
C/F from Operations 69,397 22,895 53,934 61,850 Net Revenue 50,538 48,166 50,612 54,535
C/F from Investing (6,632) (8,404) (7,841) (8,565) EBITDA 15,401 16,064 17,889 19,690
C/F from Financing (38,072) (21,743) (33,100) (37,855) % of revenue 30.5 33.4 35.3 36.1
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 24,693 (7,252) 12,993 15,430 Depr. & Amortization 1,539 1,597 1,640 1,681
Opening Cash 34,284 58,941 51,689 64,682 Net Interest 185 58 54 230
Closing Cash 58,941 51,689 64,682 80,112 Other Income 1,370 1,292 2,105 2,533
FCFF 62,899 18,608 48,713 56,149 Profit before Tax 15,048 15,701 18,300 20,313
FCFE 62,140 18,508 48,613 56,049 Total Tax 4,766 4,998 5,833 6,422
Profit after Tax 10,282 10,703 12,467 13,891
Adj. PAT 10,282 10,703 12,467 13,891
Key Financial Metrics Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Growth Cigarettes 181,118.3 208,901.0 234,897.0 261,862.7
Revenue (%) 15.6 16.5 14.5 12.4 Other FMCG 36,612.6 44,179.8 50,663.6 58,099.3
EBITDA (%) 24.7 18.9 16.1 14.6 Total FMCG 217,730.9 253,080.8 285,560.7 319,962.0
PAT (%) 25.4 22.0 15.0 14.7 Hotels 9,779.5 12,031.7 14,446.5 15,927.3
EPS (%) 25.4 22.0 15.0 14.7 Agri business 38,621.4 43,256.0 47,581.6 53,291.4
Profitability Paper and packaging 32,336.1 37,550.3 43,306.6 48,802.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 33.0 33.7 34.2 34.9 Total‐ other businesses 80,737.0 92,838.0 105,334.7 118,021.0
PAT Margin (%) 21.7 22.8 22.9 23.3
RoCE (%) 29.2 31.7 31.2 31.2
RoE (%) 29.2 32.0 31.5 31.4
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) 96 72 67 64
Valuation
PER (x) 29.3 24.0 20.9 18.2
P / B (x) 8.4 7.1 6.1 5.3
EV / EBITDA (x) 18.4 15.6 13.3 11.4
EV / Sales (x) 6.1 5.2 4.5 4.0
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 32.6 32.1 33.0 33.2
Other Inc / PBT 9.9 9.1 8.8 8.6 Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8
FCFE / PAT 149.3 36.4 83.2 83.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
February 03, 2011 4
ITC
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
60%
50.8%
50%
% of Total Coverage
40%
32.6%
30%
20% 14.4%
10%
2.3%
0%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
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February 03, 2011 5